Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, April 15th
As mentioned yesterday, it’s a bit of a late start today due to a morning doctor’s appointment. Due to that and the first full night slate of the season, there will be a great attempt to be a bit less wordy today. Looking at today’s pitching board, it might be pretty easy. There are a lot of clear “yes” and “no” answers without much explanation needed. Let’s get to it.
New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated over the weekend, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so we’ll give it a few more days before searching for another avenue.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.84 | 6.38 | 1.1 | 0.94 | 3.96 | 1.9 | CLE | 96 | 137 | 95 | |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.45 | 5.76 | 2 | 0.98 | 3.4 | 4.8 | CIN | 63 | 69 | 83 | |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.54 | 6.72 | 1.11 | 0.94 | 2.28 | 3.03 | TAM | 83 | 85 | 63 | |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.2 | 7.2 | 1.69 | 0.89 | 1.91 | 3.13 | SFO | 112 | 103 | 104 | |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 4.97 | 6.07 | 1.31 | 0.94 | 5.14 | 6 | NYM | 63 | 53 | 50 | |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 3 | 6.97 | 3.26 | 1.01 | 2.2 | 5.07 | DET | 151 | 146 | 132 | |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 4.25 | 6.07 | 1.47 | 0.93 | 4.14 | 2.5 | OAK | 62 | 64 | 79 | |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.58 | 6.47 | 1.92 | 1.05 | 3.88 | 3.28 | MIN | 29 | 68 | 63 | |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.73 | 5.73 | 0.73 | 0.94 | 3.78 | 2.89 | CHW | 85 | 76 | 89 | |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.65 | 6.41 | 1.32 | 0.84 | 3.61 | 4.41 | ARI | 76 | 84 | 59 | |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.16 | 5.87 | 1.88 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 5.88 | MIL | 36 | 51 | 70 | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.06 | 5.26 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 3.99 | 3.08 | WAS | 73 | 79 | 93 | |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.99 | 5.87 | 1.65 | 0.91 | 4.72 | 3.91 | PIT | 109 | 116 | 110 | |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.68 | 5.73 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 4.05 | 3.98 | PHI | 63 | 83 | 64 | |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.72 | 5.59 | 1.83 | 1.02 | 4.16 | 2.21 | SEA | 180 | 118 | 55 | |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.02 | 6.72 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 3.38 | 3.98 | LOS | 91 | 75 | 81 | |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.4 | 5.81 | 2.38 | 1.08 | 4.12 | 7 | BAL | 150 | 116 | 154 | |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.76 | 5.33 | 1.86 | 1.01 | 4.74 | 4.28 | HOU | 118 | 115 | 119 | |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.82 | 5.55 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 3.65 | 2.94 | NYY | 174 | 124 | 78 | |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.37 | 6.38 | 1.15 | 1.07 | 4.83 | 3.65 | BOS | 116 | 119 | 115 | |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 2.56 | 6.2 | 1.41 | 0.93 | 3.22 | 2.33 | KAN | 101 | 151 | 110 | |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.81 | 6.33 | 1.53 | 1.07 | 3.56 | 3.11 | TOR | 82 | 103 | 108 | |
| Timothy Melville | CIN | 5.34 | 4. | 2 | 0.98 | 5.34 | STL | 166 | 131 | 158 | ||
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 4.52 | 5.55 | 1.1 | 1.05 | 4.24 | 2.95 | ANA | 122 | 89 | 105 | |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 3.91 | 6. | 1.54 | 1.08 | 4.25 | 3.43 | TEX | 60 | 78 | 106 | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 3.93 | 6.08 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 3.85 | 4.57 | ATL | 41 | 18 | 50 | |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.91 | 5.62 | 1.7 | 1.01 | 4.99 | 5.41 | FLA | 103 | 94 | 101 | |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.15 | 6.64 | 1.55 | 0.84 | 3.15 | 4.21 | SDG | -21 | 51 | 99 |
Bartolo Colon started his season striking out seven of 21 Phillies without a walk of course. While we can’t expect that to continue, he’s still something of a league average pitcher and that’s not bad for just a spot holder in your rotation. He may surrender the occasional HR and get hit hard when he gets wild in the zone and can’t hit corners, but one thing he’ll never do is start walking batters. Normally excellent control allows him to generate more called strikes than the average pitcher. That Cleveland has the 2nd highest strikeout rate in baseball (28.3%) surprises me. They have a bit of power (18.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s not a bad park for fly ball pitchers (though worse for RHPs than LHPs). If you temper expectations, you might wind up with a decent effort.
Carlos Martinez didn’t exactly kill it in his first start, striking out five of 25 Braves (11 swinging strikes), but walking three, though he allowed just two runs through six innings. Normally a heavy ground ball pitcher (1.98 career GB/FB), he allowed more in the air than on the ground. However, he limited hard contact, threw over 61% strikes and importantly, his velocity was in line after shoulder issues ending last season. Control has always been an issue, but I remain confident in him in a good spot at home against a Cincinnati offense with just a 4.8 HR/FB vs RHP so far.
Chris Sale needs little explanation. He’s probably the 2nd most dominant left hander in the game and, unfortunately, today’s slate. Tampa Bay had a strong right handed lineup to run out against LHP last year and as a result, were often a sneaky stack against them (110 wRC+). They did, however, strike out 21.9% against them.
Clayton Kershaw makes Sale look human. It’s really not fair to Sale that they have to pitch on the same day. San Francisco has a good offense, which is very potent on the road, but perhaps overly stated in current season statistics due to just leaving Colorado. It doesn’t matter. Kershaw!
Cody Anderson is today’s sleeper hit. I know he had a 3.05 ERA last year, but he really isn’t going to sustain a .237 BABIP nor probably a 78.3 LOB% either. However, I don’t think he deserved such a low K% either. He had a well below average SwStr%, but has good stuff and was recently compared to Matt Harvey on Fangraphs when he was hitting 97 mph last month. He didn’t do that in his first start, but was up a tick from last year to 93 mph and generated nine swinging strikes despite striking out just two of 27 White Sox. He faces an offense that has struggled mightily to start the season (24.7 K%, 3.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a decent home park.
Edinson Volquez started throwing harder last post-season. He’s throwing harder this season. In fact, his velocity has ticked up every year since 2012 (92.4 mph) to now (94.5 mph), while his walk rate has declined in each season from 13.1% in 2012 to 6.4% through two starts this year. He’s struck out 15 of 47 batters faced and missed 28 bats in two starts. He’s faced two bad offensive teams (Mets, Twins). He faces another struggling offense in a great park, very similar to his own. The only reasonable explanation is that he and Matt Harvey switched bodies during the World Series, like in one of those movies.
Garrett Richards is generating swings and misses like its 2014 again. Well, he did that last year too, but just wasn’t putting as many away. His first two starts this year have been good news in that regard. His velocity is back up a mile per hour to 96.5 (where it was in 2014) after dropping a tick to 95.5 last year. The only negative has been more hard contact through two starts, but that’s not anywhere near a stabilization point. The Twins have a 30.2 K% vs RHP so far without a HR at home yet.
Jake Odorizzi struck out 10 Blue Jays and then just four Orioles. What the….? The good news is he’s missing a good amount of bats and didn’t really crater against the O’s. He generally pitches well at home as a fly ball pitcher in a big park with just a 6.6 HR/FB at the Trop last year (is that still what they call it?). He was up a tick last year, but is back to his 2014 velocity through a couple starts so far. Basically, if he continues to keep the ball in the park at home and put up average or slightly better peripherals, he’ll be a good pitcher. He’s at home against a fairly marginal offense that hasn’t done much against RHP yet.
Joe Ross has only had one decent, but not spectacular start against the Marlins. He exhibited some solid bat missing skills last year and the Phillies are bad.
Rich Hill was a late replacement for Sonny Gray on Opening Day and faltered. Out came the skeptics and perhaps rightfully slow when his entire resurgence (or perhaps surgence since he was never previously that good) was based on just four starts in September. He silenced a lot of doubts by striking out 10 of 24 Mariners in his last outing. It’s starting to become difficult to doubt him. The bad news is he does face the Royals today (only 48 PAs vs LHP, so you can disregard their dominance above) and we generally don’t like picking on Kansas City, so why would we even consider it on today of all days? The price is attractive enough.
Zack Greinke has been very stinky for Arizona. I don’t think even they expected him to duplicate 2015, but he may duplicate his entire run total by the end of the month at this rate. He did look better in his 2nd start, missing 13 bats and allowing four runs without a HR against a tough Cubs offense. His velocity is down, but less than a mile per hour and around where he started last season as well before increasing it over the summer. He should be fine and is in a better spot outside of Arizona finally in a good park in San Diego against a team that hasn’t been able to generate any offense at all outside of Colorado yet.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Dallas Keuchel has been a mess. I’m not normally this quick to jump off guys who just won a Cy Young, but his velocity is down over a mph, he’s not missing bats, he’s not throwing strikes, he’s still generating ground balls, but not at an elite rate and the contact has been harder so far. The Tigers are one of the top offenses vs LHPs. The other thing is, there’s no need to take this risk with the caliber of today’s pitchers. Wait and see if he figures it out.
James Shields did pitch well in his first start against the Dodgers. Then three HRs were launched off him in Colorado, which isn’t all that damning, but we really don’t know, so why take the risk today with this fine population of hurlers.
Jeff Locke stranded all eight or so base runners who didn’t homer in his first start. He’s not in a bad spot against a strikeout prone offense in the toughest park for RH power, but generally doesn’t have much upside.
Jeremy Hellickson looks better, looks different and there might be an argument to be made for him on another day, but he’s faced two bad teams (Mets, Reds) and is down over a mile per hour. I want to see more. He’s been pumping in strikes with nearly 50% change-ups and curveballs that look good so far though. He should have a tougher time today.
Jimmy Nelson has looked good so far and has some talent, but there are better options in his price range today. His 24.0 K% so far is a complete fluke. He struck out nine of 22 Astros in his last start with a 7.8 SwStr%.
Luis Severino was BABIP’d around despite a 5.5 GB/FB ratio in his first start against the Tigers. He struck out five of 24 as well and has some talent in that arm. However, he snuck through on a .265 BABIP and 87.0 LOB% that were partially obscured by a 17.3 HR/FB (Yankee Stadium), but made his ERA look much better than the underlying metrics last year. His secondary pitchers (slider and changeup) seem not to be there yet and need some work. I’m really borderline on him at this price in Seattle tonight, but see him as more of a work in progress than some who just looked at his ERA might. I’d probably be less inclined to pass on a tougher day.
Madison Bumgarner looked much better in his 2nd start against the Dodgers and has struck out 14 of 49 batters faced. He’s SwStr% is above average, but still below his career rate and his velocity did not improve from an average of 90 mph in his first start. That has him down 2 ticks from last season’s average. His 22.2 GB% is half his career rate with 50% of his contact being hit hard. This is surprising and I’ve cut and moved him back and forth between here and above today, but in the end, like Keuchel, we can afford to pass with studs all over the place tonight.
Nate Karns isn’t bad and probably pitched better than his line showed in his first start, but has some control and hard contact issues with a high HR rate. That makes this start very dangerous. I might consider him at current cost if this game were in Seattle.
R.A. Dickey might be worth a look at his DraftKings price ($5.9K). Despite scoring seven runs in his last start, these Red Sox struck out in nine of 26 attempts against him and he’s had a SwStr% well above average in each of his two starts. If he can even push his strikeout rate to around 18-19% again….?
Rick Porcello has a HR problem and now he has a Toronto problem.
Timothy Melville is a 26 year old rookie on his 3rd organization, who throws 90 mph, didn’t miss many bats in the minors and has to face the Cardinals in his 2nd major league outing.
Vance Worley is really, really cheap. I still have no confidence in a guy who generates too high a percentage of his strikeouts looking, but I mean really, really cheap.
Wei-Yin Chen hasn’t pitched since the 2nd day of the season. He has/had a sore elbow. Atlanta is terrible and I was looking forward to see how he’d do in a better park, but there is no need to pay $8K today for a pitcher with a possible elbow issue.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 3.2% | Road | 15.2% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.6% | Home | 22.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.4% | 5.3% | Road | 34.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 4.5% | Home | 36.6% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 11.7% | 6.6% | Home | 12.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.1% | Home | 28.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 18.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.2% | 8.7% | Road | 20.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 6.4% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.0% | Road | 18.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.3% | Home | 25.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.0% | Home | 26.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.8% | Home | 18.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 4.2% | 8.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.8% | Home | 19.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 2.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.0% | Road | 16.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 10.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.8% | Road | 22.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.9% | Home | 22.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 26.1% | 4.8% | Road | 23.5% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 12.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 14.1% | 8.8% | Home | 12.9% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 5.8% | 17.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.6% | 7.1% | Road | 10.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.7% | 8.8% | Road | 25.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 4.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.3% | Road | 12.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.5% | 7.5% | Home | 29.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 5.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 17.8% | 5.0% | Home | 21.3% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 3.7% |
| Timothy Melville | Reds | L2 Years | 23.8% | 19.1% | Road | L14 Days | 23.8% | 19.1% | ||
| Tommy Milone | Twins | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.0% | Home | 15.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Vance Worley | Orioles | L2 Years | 16.8% | 5.6% | Road | 15.9% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.5% | 4.9% | Home | 18.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | L2 Years | 14.4% | 10.1% | Road | 12.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.2% | Road | 24.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Home | 28.8% | 12.3% | RH | 24.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.0% |
| Reds | Road | 20.8% | 9.4% | RH | 21.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.5% | 10.4% |
| Rays | Home | 25.6% | 5.5% | LH | 17.0% | 2.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Road | 11.7% | 7.4% | LH | 18.8% | 5.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 7.1% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 14.3% | RH | 24.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | LH | 15.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.8% | 6.0% | RH | 23.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | RH | 30.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.5% | 5.3% | RH | 19.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 18.9% | 7.5% | RH | 21.5% | 5.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 5.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 31.7% | 6.7% | LH | 35.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 31.4% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.5% | 8.9% | RH | 21.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.4% | 11.2% | RH | 17.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.0% | 10.9% | RH | 22.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.6% | 10.9% | RH | 22.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 17.0% | 6.6% | LH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.8% | 10.7% | LH | 21.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% |
| Astros | Home | 28.8% | 11.0% | RH | 28.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.6% | 10.1% | RH | 16.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 8.0% | RH | 21.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Road | 17.9% | 4.0% | LH | 22.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 30.9% | 7.4% | RH | 27.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 10.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.1% | 6.0% | RH | 19.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.5% |
| Angels | Road | 14.3% | 8.4% | LH | 13.0% | 11.6% | L7Days | 12.6% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.9% | 10.5% | RH | 22.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Road | 21.4% | 8.6% | LH | 24.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 11.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.6% | 8.1% | RH | 22.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.7% |
| Padres | Home | 29.8% | 2.1% | RH | 29.6% | 5.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 2016 | 29.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% | Road | 26.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 11.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2016 | 27.6% | 10.6% | 6.4% | Home | 26.6% | 10.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.1% | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2016 | 25.1% | 12.5% | 4.1% | Road | 26.3% | 9.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 20.0% | 5.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 2016 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 5.4% | Home | 25.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 12.5% | 19.5% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2016 | 27.4% | 9.2% | 5.8% | Home | 26.9% | 8.8% | 0.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 11.1% | -3.1% | 2016 | 21.3% | 13.6% | -3.9% | Home | 17.0% | 8.0% | -12.8% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 2016 | 30.4% | 8.0% | 14.3% | Road | 27.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 10.4% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 2016 | 24.0% | 12.0% | 1.1% | Road | 24.7% | 12.8% | -0.7% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 12.5% | 27.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 2016 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | Home | 27.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 2016 | 31.2% | 17.6% | 14.2% | Home | 31.1% | 19.6% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 21.4% | 12.2% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.8% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 2016 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 5.3% | Home | 25.6% | 10.9% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 16.7% | 4.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.9% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 2016 | 34.3% | 13.3% | 18.4% | Home | 32.9% | 13.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 2016 | 28.9% | 11.8% | 9.7% | Road | 28.1% | 8.0% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 27.3% | 15.1% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 2016 | 30.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | Road | 32.6% | 15.2% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.8% | 16.7% | 1.5% | 2016 | 26.3% | 17.3% | -0.6% | Home | 32.9% | 17.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 2016 | 27.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | Road | 31.0% | 12.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 14.3% | 39.3% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.6% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2016 | 22.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | Home | 18.3% | 5.4% | -2.1% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 2016 | 26.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | Road | 27.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 20.0% | 33.4% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 2016 | 34.5% | 12.8% | 15.0% | Road | 32.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 25.3% | 10.4% | 5.3% | 2016 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | Road | 24.8% | 10.2% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 24.2% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 2016 | 22.2% | 9.1% | -6.4% | Home | 29.6% | 0.0% | -11.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 16.7% | 10.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 2016 | 32.8% | 14.5% | 15.0% | Home | 32.6% | 12.3% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 28.6% | 5.3% |
| Timothy Melville | Reds | L2 Years | 16.7% | 50.0% | 8.4% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days | 16.7% | 50.0% | 8.4% | ||||||
| Tommy Milone | Twins | L2 Years | 26.5% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2016 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 7.7% | Home | 22.3% | 9.5% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 66.7% | -13.3% |
| Vance Worley | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 2016 | 29.0% | 7.8% | 13.9% | Road | 35.6% | 8.0% | 24.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 2016 | 28.3% | 12.3% | 6.4% | Home | 30.3% | 14.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 11.1% | 33.4% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 2016 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 15.2% | Road | 30.7% | 11.7% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 27.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2016 | 26.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | Road | 28.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 21.4% | 27.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Home | 34.9% | 12.5% | 16.3% | RH | 40.0% | 25.0% | 24.6% | L7Days | 30.4% | 13.7% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Road | 29.7% | 4.3% | 8.1% | RH | 27.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | L7Days | 28.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Rays | Home | 31.7% | 13.3% | 11.2% | LH | 33.3% | 13.3% | 22.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
| Giants | Road | 35.3% | 19.0% | 15.0% | LH | 23.1% | 15.8% | -4.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 20.0% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Road | 33.3% | 5.9% | 12.5% | RH | 30.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.0% | 15.4% | 20.8% | LH | 37.4% | 13.0% | 23.3% | L7Days | 32.3% | 13.1% | 18.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 26.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | RH | 30.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 11.8% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Home | 16.9% | 0.0% | -14.1% | RH | 26.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 27.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.4% | 9.1% | 4.1% | RH | 24.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.6% | 13.0% | 15.8% | RH | 31.9% | 14.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 28.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.2% | 16.7% | 12.7% | LH | 37.0% | 20.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 36.1% | 25.0% | 20.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.9% | 9.5% | 14.5% | RH | 29.4% | 10.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 28.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 23.5% | 0.0% | 6.6% | RH | 25.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 13.6% | 6.9% | -4.9% | RH | 25.1% | 11.5% | 5.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.0% | -1.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 28.1% | 31.0% | 12.2% | RH | 32.8% | 15.6% | 13.8% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.4% | 4.5% | 1.3% | LH | 23.4% | 0.0% | 2.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 1.9% | 6.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 38.4% | 17.5% | 18.2% | LH | 36.8% | 13.0% | 19.3% | L7Days | 37.3% | 20.7% | 17.7% |
| Astros | Home | 36.4% | 8.6% | 23.9% | RH | 35.6% | 18.4% | 18.3% | L7Days | 35.0% | 14.8% | 19.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.8% | 23.3% | 17.7% | RH | 29.1% | 21.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | RH | 27.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% |
| Royals | Road | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | LH | 26.5% | 27.3% | 3.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.6% | -0.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 26.4% | 14.7% | -2.2% | RH | 30.2% | 12.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 31.7% | 14.6% | 13.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.2% | 9.4% | 15.0% | RH | 31.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 13.2% | 16.5% |
| Angels | Road | 20.0% | 5.3% | -8.9% | LH | 25.5% | 7.1% | -2.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 3.5% | -5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.5% | 2.9% | -9.1% | RH | 24.8% | 5.0% | -0.9% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Braves | Road | 24.7% | 0.0% | 4.1% | LH | 27.1% | 0.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 1.5% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.6% | 5.6% | -4.8% | RH | 22.9% | 3.8% | -4.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.0% | -7.0% |
| Padres | Home | 14.1% | 0.0% | -7.8% | RH | 25.3% | 9.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 32.4% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.7% | 6.4% | 2.61 | 30.8% | 10.0% | 3.08 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 1.80 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.1% | 14.6% | 2.20 | 25.0% | 10.9% | 2.29 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.8% | 15.9% | 2.13 | 26.9% | 11.8% | 2.28 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 12.1% | 7.8% | 1.55 | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.76 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.30 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 3.63 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 18.2% | 9.5% | 1.92 | 31.9% | 13.9% | 2.29 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 20.4% | 11.1% | 1.84 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 1.84 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 | 28.6% | 11.2% | 2.55 |
| James Shields | SDG | 25.1% | 12.4% | 2.02 | 15.4% | 8.1% | 1.90 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 4.2% | 7.5% | 0.56 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.84 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 2.34 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 | 24.0% | 6.3% | 3.81 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 22.0% | 11.9% | 1.85 | 20.0% | 7.2% | 2.78 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 22.0% | 9.6% | 2.29 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 1.79 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 26.9% | 12.5% | 2.15 | 28.6% | 10.3% | 2.78 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.2% | 7.5% | 1.89 | 5.8% | 5.3% | 1.09 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 12.0% | 5.6% | 2.14 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 23.4% | 9.2% | 2.54 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 2.60 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.3% | 9.1% | 1.57 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 2.13 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 34.0% | 11.3% | 3.01 | 34.2% | 12.1% | 2.83 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.2% | 8.5% | 2.38 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 2.73 |
| Timothy Melville | CIN | 23.8% | 6.5% | 3.66 | |||
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.07 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 3.33 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 15.8% | 6.0% | 2.63 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 2.86 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 19.3% | 8.6% | 2.24 | 12.5% | 9.2% | 1.36 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 14.2% | 6.1% | 2.33 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 3.98 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 23.7% | 12.0% | 1.98 | 19.6% | 10.4% | 1.88 |
We’re still using 2015 numbers a bit long until just about every pitcher has made a couple of starts, but also using this year’s stats in the “L30 Days” column. As mentioned, we’re showing just starting pitcher league averages in the header information now, which drops K% and SwStr% just slightly from the overall average that includes relievers.
Bartolo Colon has generally been out of the accepted range ever since I started doing this with a K/SwStr around three, but dropped down to 2.64 last season. It was actually his highest SwStr% since 2005 and go figure it results in a below career average K%. He’s into his 40s now after all, don’t expect improvement.
Cody Anderson – we’ve already touched on this, but he was already in line for at least some increase in his K%. If the recent hype is for real, it might be much more.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.16 | 4.02 | -0.14 | 3.94 | -0.22 | 3.84 | -0.32 | 1.23 | 1.9 | 0.67 | 1.82 | 0.59 | 2.76 | 1.53 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.01 | 3.44 | 0.43 | 3.28 | 0.27 | 3.21 | 0.2 | 3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 4.78 | 1.78 | 3.01 | 0.01 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.41 | 2.52 | -0.89 | 2.6 | -0.81 | 2.73 | -0.68 | 3.86 | 3.03 | -0.83 | 2.9 | -0.96 | 3.67 | -0.19 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.13 | 2.24 | 0.11 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 1.99 | -0.14 | 1.2 | 3.13 | 1.93 | 3.33 | 2.13 | 3.44 | 2.24 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.05 | 4.89 | 1.84 | 4.58 | 1.53 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6.29 | 3.29 | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.48 | 2.84 | 0.36 | 2.75 | 0.27 | 2.91 | 0.43 | 3.55 | 5.07 | 1.52 | 4.33 | 0.78 | 3.49 | -0.06 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.55 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 4.26 | 0.71 | 3.82 | 0.27 | 1.54 | 2.5 | 0.96 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 1.37 | -0.17 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.65 | 3.94 | 0.29 | 3.8 | 0.15 | 3.86 | 0.21 | 3.86 | 3.28 | -0.58 | 3.01 | -0.85 | 3.09 | -0.77 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.35 | 3.9 | 0.55 | 3.96 | 0.61 | 3.61 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 2.89 | -0.97 | 3.11 | -0.75 | 2.4 | -1.46 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.91 | 3.72 | -0.19 | 3.7 | -0.21 | 4.45 | 0.54 | 4.85 | 4.41 | -0.44 | 4.27 | -0.58 | 5.63 | 0.78 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.49 | 4.18 | -0.31 | 3.94 | -0.55 | 3.95 | -0.54 | 1.5 | 5.88 | 4.38 | 5.36 | 3.86 | 6.01 | 4.51 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.62 | 4.14 | -0.48 | 4.16 | -0.46 | 4.44 | -0.18 | 1.54 | 3.08 | 1.54 | 3.37 | 1.83 | 2.66 | 1.12 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.11 | 4.09 | -0.02 | 4.06 | -0.05 | 4.1 | -0.01 | 2.7 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 3.75 | 1.05 | 5.42 | 2.72 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.64 | 3.66 | 0.02 | 3.62 | -0.02 | 3.42 | -0.22 | 1.29 | 3.98 | 2.69 | 3.69 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.31 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.89 | 3.84 | 0.95 | 3.72 | 0.83 | 4.37 | 1.48 | 5.4 | 2.21 | -3.19 | 1.78 | -3.62 | 1.17 | -4.23 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.93 | 3 | 0.07 | 3.02 | 0.09 | 2.87 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 3.98 | 0.71 | 4.47 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 1.63 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.46 | 4.06 | -0.4 | 3.99 | -0.47 | 3.4 | -1.06 | 3.65 | 7 | 3.35 | 6.47 | 2.82 | 6.42 | 2.77 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.26 | 4.59 | 0.33 | 4.45 | 0.19 | 4 | -0.26 | 14.73 | 4.28 | -10.45 | 4.43 | -10.3 | 5.9 | -8.83 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.67 | 3.9 | 0.23 | 3.9 | 0.23 | 4.09 | 0.42 | 7.2 | 2.94 | -4.26 | 2.59 | -4.61 | 3.97 | -3.23 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 3.91 | 4.76 | 0.85 | 4.72 | 0.81 | 4.48 | 0.57 | 8.1 | 3.65 | -4.45 | 3.49 | -4.61 | 3.27 | -4.83 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 1.55 | 2.29 | 0.74 | 2.5 | 0.95 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 3.12 | 2.33 | -0.79 | 3.3 | 0.18 | 3.75 | 0.63 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.92 | 3.73 | -1.19 | 3.72 | -1.2 | 4.13 | -0.79 | 6 | 3.11 | -2.89 | 3.11 | -2.89 | 5.67 | -0.33 |
| Timothy Melville | CIN | 2.25 | 5.34 | 3.09 | 4.43 | 2.18 | 6.92 | 4.67 | |||||||
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.92 | 4.39 | 0.47 | 4.22 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 0.38 | 3.86 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 3.08 | -0.78 | 7.67 | 3.81 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 4.02 | 4.28 | 0.26 | 4.32 | 0.3 | 3.82 | -0.2 | 3.86 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 2.97 | -0.89 | 4.46 | 0.6 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 3.34 | 3.97 | 0.63 | 4.01 | 0.67 | 4.16 | 0.82 | 9 | 4.57 | -4.43 | 4.71 | -4.29 | 4.57 | -4.43 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.78 | 4.87 | 0.09 | 4.79 | 0.01 | 4.87 | 0.09 | 7.71 | 5.41 | -2.3 | 6.31 | -1.4 | 6.82 | -0.89 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 1.66 | 3.27 | 1.61 | 3.22 | 1.56 | 2.76 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 4.21 | -5.69 | 4.5 | -5.4 | 6.27 | -3.63 |
Cody Anderson – the .237 BABIP and 78.3 LOB% were already mentioned, but a higher strikeout rate, which is expected, could bring his estimators down significantly.
Edinson Volquez had an 8.0 HR/FB last season. It’s below his norm, but he now pitches in a big park. It doesn’t seem that crazy.
Jake Odorizzi pitches in front of a good defense and generally is able to keep the ball in the park at home.
Zack Greinke – We’ve beaten to death his ridiculous BABIP and LOB% last year. Both career bests by far along with his 2nd best HR rate. He’s still a very good pitcher, just not among the elite.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.16 | 4.02 | -0.14 | 3.94 | -0.22 | 3.84 | -0.32 | 1.23 | 1.9 | 0.67 | 1.82 | 0.59 | 2.76 | 1.53 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.01 | 3.44 | 0.43 | 3.28 | 0.27 | 3.21 | 0.2 | 3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 4.78 | 1.78 | 3.01 | 0.01 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.41 | 2.52 | -0.89 | 2.6 | -0.81 | 2.73 | -0.68 | 3.86 | 3.03 | -0.83 | 2.9 | -0.96 | 3.67 | -0.19 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.13 | 2.24 | 0.11 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 1.99 | -0.14 | 1.2 | 3.13 | 1.93 | 3.33 | 2.13 | 3.44 | 2.24 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.05 | 4.89 | 1.84 | 4.58 | 1.53 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6.29 | 3.29 | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.48 | 2.84 | 0.36 | 2.75 | 0.27 | 2.91 | 0.43 | 3.55 | 5.07 | 1.52 | 4.33 | 0.78 | 3.49 | -0.06 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.55 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 4.26 | 0.71 | 3.82 | 0.27 | 1.54 | 2.5 | 0.96 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 1.37 | -0.17 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.65 | 3.94 | 0.29 | 3.8 | 0.15 | 3.86 | 0.21 | 3.86 | 3.28 | -0.58 | 3.01 | -0.85 | 3.09 | -0.77 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.35 | 3.9 | 0.55 | 3.96 | 0.61 | 3.61 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 2.89 | -0.97 | 3.11 | -0.75 | 2.4 | -1.46 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.91 | 3.72 | -0.19 | 3.7 | -0.21 | 4.45 | 0.54 | 4.85 | 4.41 | -0.44 | 4.27 | -0.58 | 5.63 | 0.78 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.49 | 4.18 | -0.31 | 3.94 | -0.55 | 3.95 | -0.54 | 1.5 | 5.88 | 4.38 | 5.36 | 3.86 | 6.01 | 4.51 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.62 | 4.14 | -0.48 | 4.16 | -0.46 | 4.44 | -0.18 | 1.54 | 3.08 | 1.54 | 3.37 | 1.83 | 2.66 | 1.12 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.11 | 4.09 | -0.02 | 4.06 | -0.05 | 4.1 | -0.01 | 2.7 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 3.75 | 1.05 | 5.42 | 2.72 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.64 | 3.66 | 0.02 | 3.62 | -0.02 | 3.42 | -0.22 | 1.29 | 3.98 | 2.69 | 3.69 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.31 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.89 | 3.84 | 0.95 | 3.72 | 0.83 | 4.37 | 1.48 | 5.4 | 2.21 | -3.19 | 1.78 | -3.62 | 1.17 | -4.23 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.93 | 3 | 0.07 | 3.02 | 0.09 | 2.87 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 3.98 | 0.71 | 4.47 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 1.63 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.46 | 4.06 | -0.4 | 3.99 | -0.47 | 3.4 | -1.06 | 3.65 | 7 | 3.35 | 6.47 | 2.82 | 6.42 | 2.77 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.26 | 4.59 | 0.33 | 4.45 | 0.19 | 4 | -0.26 | 14.73 | 4.28 | -10.45 | 4.43 | -10.3 | 5.9 | -8.83 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.67 | 3.9 | 0.23 | 3.9 | 0.23 | 4.09 | 0.42 | 7.2 | 2.94 | -4.26 | 2.59 | -4.61 | 3.97 | -3.23 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 3.91 | 4.76 | 0.85 | 4.72 | 0.81 | 4.48 | 0.57 | 8.1 | 3.65 | -4.45 | 3.49 | -4.61 | 3.27 | -4.83 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 1.55 | 2.29 | 0.74 | 2.5 | 0.95 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 3.12 | 2.33 | -0.79 | 3.3 | 0.18 | 3.75 | 0.63 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.92 | 3.73 | -1.19 | 3.72 | -1.2 | 4.13 | -0.79 | 6 | 3.11 | -2.89 | 3.11 | -2.89 | 5.67 | -0.33 |
| Timothy Melville | CIN | 2.25 | 5.34 | 3.09 | 4.43 | 2.18 | 6.92 | 4.67 | |||||||
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.92 | 4.39 | 0.47 | 4.22 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 0.38 | 3.86 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 3.08 | -0.78 | 7.67 | 3.81 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 4.02 | 4.28 | 0.26 | 4.32 | 0.3 | 3.82 | -0.2 | 3.86 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 2.97 | -0.89 | 4.46 | 0.6 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 3.34 | 3.97 | 0.63 | 4.01 | 0.67 | 4.16 | 0.82 | 9 | 4.57 | -4.43 | 4.71 | -4.29 | 4.57 | -4.43 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.78 | 4.87 | 0.09 | 4.79 | 0.01 | 4.87 | 0.09 | 7.71 | 5.41 | -2.3 | 6.31 | -1.4 | 6.82 | -0.89 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 1.66 | 3.27 | 1.61 | 3.22 | 1.56 | 2.76 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 4.21 | -5.69 | 4.5 | -5.4 | 6.27 | -3.63 |
Don’t pay much attention to this year’s Team BABIP yet. The sample is way too small. Pitcher numbers are still from 2015.
There doesn’t seem to be anything left unsaid that needs to be further touched upon here today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we normally rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re still just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016.
Barolo Colon received many more words than I expected to give him today mostly because he costs just $5.3K on DraftKings. If you want to pay up for Kershaw or Sale and still have some left over for offense, will he generate 12 to 15 DK points more often than not in this spot? I think there’s a good chance of that.
Carlos Martinez is cheaper than Shields on DraftKings at $9K and the same price on FanDuel. This seems like a bargain for a pitcher who accomplished what he did last year in a great park against a weak offense.
Chris Sale – If you can afford him, use him. If you can’t afford him, find a way.
Clayton Kershaw – What I just said about the last guy applies double for here.
Cody Anderson is an arm with potential at one of the lowest prices on the board. Perhaps I’m naïve in buying into hype on a guy I didn’t know much about before reading an article and then checking his velocity reading and SwStr% from his first start, but the cost is so low, it has to be considered.
Edinson Volquez has been slowly showing real change for the last season or so. I’m not all the way bought in (unless I find evidence of a body swap), but I don’t have to be in this spot against the A’s in Oakland for current prices.
Garrett Richards looks back to 2014 form early on and gets to pick on the Twins today. There are so many good options at the top today.
Jake Odorizzi is another reasonably priced, good pitcher in a good spot. There seems to be a lot of those today. Are we ever going to get to one we don’t like? I don’t know. I’m doing this entirely alphabetically today.
Joe Ross has shown about league average skills and is in a good spot against the Phillies at an average cost. There looks to be some surplus here.
Rich Hill gets a tough opponent in the Royals, but bounced back from a rough first start, which he wasn’t even originally scheduled for with another dominant one. We generally stay away from the Royals, but he has to be worth at least a look at this price.
Zack Greinke is an interesting pivot today. I don’t think he’ll generate the numbers Sale or Kershaw are capable of, but he’s in a great spot at what looks like a slightly reduced price after his rough start and I doubt a lot of people are going to be on him. This should be a nice spot for him to bounce back.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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