Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 13th
This is close to what the normal Friday slate will look like. The Cubs have their standard day game at home, the state of Ohio (either Cleveland or Cincinnati, but not both yet) seem to do these early evening starts early in the season (perhaps someone knows why?) with the remaining 13 games on the main slate. Although, Minnesota is so sure their game will be cancelled tonight that they’ve declined to confirm a starter. As usual, all pitchers are listed with notes on the 13 night games.
Stats for 2018 are now being included. The remaining exceptions are for Statcast, team defense, and anywhere where you see full single season stats. In other words, the main table includes 2018 stats and anything that says last 14 or last 30 days is for 2018, but “season” is still 2017. This also gives us an addition point of comparison in the strikeout and ERA tables. Next week, everything should be updated to include 2018 after three times through the rotation.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.7 | 4.06 | 4.2 | 30.2% | 1.04 | 5.74 | Royals | 96 | 79 | 85 | |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | -7.7 | 3.88 | 5.1 | 50.1% | 0.92 | 4.35 | 3.04 | Mariners | 130 | 99 | 107 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | -0.4 | 4.26 | 5.2 | 37.9% | 1.01 | 5.08 | 4.36 | Cubs | 148 | 106 | 120 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.1 | 4.64 | 5.1 | 42.2% | 0.88 | 4.59 | 3.52 | Marlins | 85 | 63 | 66 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | -4.7 | 5.18 | 5.3 | 40.5% | 1.10 | 5.43 | 7.05 | Red Sox | 125 | 116 | 141 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.33 | 6.2 | 47.9% | 0.87 | 4.85 | 3.24 | Astros | 104 | 151 | 80 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 3.6 | 4.91 | 5.0 | 58.1% | 0.88 | 4.03 | 5.07 | Pirates | 127 | 147 | 141 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 3.6 | 4.18 | 5.5 | 33.7% | 1.10 | 3.94 | 2.36 | Orioles | 98 | 141 | 95 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | -3.7 | 3.97 | 6.0 | 44.8% | 0.87 | 3.62 | 1.56 | Rangers | 79 | 84 | 98 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 3.2 | 4.57 | 5.4 | 37.3% | 0.92 | 4.63 | 8.47 | Phillies | 59 | 79 | 127 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.5 | 4.49 | 5.6 | 40.0% | 1.04 | 4.98 | 4.69 | Angels | 139 | 133 | 157 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.37 | 5.3 | 41.3% | 1.07 | 4.67 | 4.89 | Tigers | 81 | 82 | 37 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 4.2 | 3.68 | 5.3 | 40.8% | 0.90 | 3.35 | 1.00 | Diamondbacks | 84 | 92 | 80 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.84 | 5.4 | 54.0% | 1.01 | 5.06 | 3.59 | Nationals | 74 | 61 | 79 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.8 | 3.47 | 5.1 | 41.7% | 1.01 | 2.89 | 3.91 | Reds | 85 | 72 | 71 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 3.73 | 6.2 | 61.2% | 1.06 | 3.89 | 4.52 | Indians | 72 | 61 | 75 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 2.2 | 4.39 | 5.1 | 39.7% | 1.06 | 3.94 | 4.26 | Blue Jays | 104 | 100 | 103 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | -2 | 4.35 | 5.5 | 42.8% | 1.07 | 4.52 | 2.90 | Yankees | 105 | 103 | 103 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.1 | 4.06 | 6.0 | 53.8% | 0.92 | 3.97 | 6.40 | Athletics | 134 | 130 | 135 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.8 | 5.08 | 5.2 | 33.2% | 1.05 | 4.88 | White Sox | 131 | 113 | 67 | |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -0.1 | 4.89 | 5.6 | 35.4% | 1.05 | 5.71 | 4.65 | Twins | 103 | 106 | 102 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 1.1 | 3.89 | 5.6 | 49.5% | 0.92 | 3.64 | 3.40 | Brewers | 98 | 75 | 83 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.7 | 4.27 | 6.1 | 48.1% | 1.01 | 3.90 | 3.13 | Rockies | 102 | 61 | 77 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | -1.8 | 5.29 | 6.1 | 47.9% | 0.91 | 5.01 | 5.39 | Padres | 85 | 112 | 83 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 4.8 | 5.01 | 5.0 | 45.7% | 1.01 | 4.24 | 3.92 | Cardinals | 132 | 112 | 104 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -4.1 | 5.70 | 4.8 | 49.0% | 0.91 | 6.04 | 3.45 | Giants | 61 | 89 | 80 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -0.6 | 4.02 | 5.1 | 37.9% | 0.92 | 5.02 | 3.51 | Rays | 60 | 92 | 121 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 3.9 | 3.46 | 5.9 | 40.7% | 1.01 | 4.00 | 2.74 | Braves | 86 | 114 | 87 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.38 | 5.8 | 47.5% | 0.92 | 4.24 | 2.91 | Mets | 127 | 121 | 86 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 3.68 | 6.2 | 45.8% | 0.90 | 3.47 | 2.21 | Dodgers | 93 | 84 | 117 |
Andrew Heaney has missed nearly two full seasons after Tommy John surgery. He’s made one start in high A ball this month, striking out six of 22 batters. The key point being he pitched into the seventh inning, which may make him viable against a Kansas City offense where most of the legitimacy they have leans towards the left side. They’ve yet to homer against a LHP. He does have a league average SwStr% in 116 career innings.
Andrew Triggs has a strong sinker/slider combo that has led to double digit SwStr% and 50% ground ball rate last year. This is something he’s done in more than 50 innings in each of the 2016 and 2017 seasons at the big league level and includes a portion of the latter season in which he may have been pitching injured. It’s hopeful that the injury also accounted for the 88.5 mph aEV, which we see spike up near the end of his season and a .294 BABIP that matches his defense despite a 17.7 LD%. While he’s started strong this season (10.2 IP – 3 ER – 4 BB – 13 K), there are some concerns. While his SwStr% remains in double digits, it’s almost exactly what it was last year, so the early strikeout rate is a stretch. His hard hit rate is 48.2%, but that was mostly in his first start against the Rangers. He kept a predominantly right-handed Angels’ lineup on the ground (57.1%) with a -7.1 Hard-Soft%, though his SwStr% was cut in half in that start. He’s basically pitched to the competition. The Mariners, like the Rangers, are well-balanced and maybe even a little better in a neutral park. They’re in a pitcher friendly park tonight and still without Nelson Cruz (who may be activated tonight?).
Chad Kuhl is painful to write about. Some other people have been higher on him because he throws hard, but he also struggles with control (though that hasn’t always been the case) and gets hammered by left-handed batters. The good news is that the Marlins have maybe one legit LHB and they’ve been so awful against RHP (63 wRC+, 25.8 K%, -1.8 Hard-Soft%). His SwStr% is down through two starts, though his actual K% is up a couple of points.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 22 of 51 batters faced for the Astros and it’s no fluke (though it won’t remain this high). While the Pirates emphasize efficiency in ground balls and throwing few pitchers per batter and they have been an organization that has been highly regarded for turning around pitching “projects” recently, they were probably doing this guy a disservice. The Astros emphasize strikeouts. They don’t care how hard a guy throws, they want him to throw pitches that make batters swing and miss. They told Cole to leave his sinker in Pittsburgh and start throwing more sliders. Now, it’s the Padres and Rangers, but it worked and it’s the Rangers yet again tonight. And guess what? Efficiency? He’s completed seven innings in both of his starts because nobody gets on base when you have command and they don’t put the ball in play.
Jake Faria has been terrible through two starts (5.2 IP – 9 ER – 8 BB – 2 K). He’s faced the Red Sox twice, but no major league pitcher should look that bad against any major league team. He’s thrown more fastballs and fewer sliders. You’d expect things to improve and the Phillies have a 27.6 K% against RHP.
Kenta Maeda generated lots of swings and misses with exceptional contact management last season. Perhaps the Dodgers aggressively managing his workload was part of the reason for that, but the underlying numbers say stud even if his ERA and estimators are all around four. Unfortunately, this year is a bit skewed because after striking out 10 Dodgers on the last day of March, his second appearance lasted five batters out of the bullpen. He’s faced a total of 26 batters through six innings, all Giants. If he continues to do what he did last year, he should be fine at home against the Diamondbacks.
Mike Clevinger owns both the highest strikeout rate (27.3%) and swinging strike rate (12.5%) on the board for last season (or he’s tied for both). His ERA estimators are a run above his 3.11 ERA with a minor discrepancy in his BABIP (.273) and his strand rate (79.7%). The problem is that he has a 12% walk rate through 170 big league innings. It’s his fastball. All of his secondary pitches have an exceptional 19% whiff rate or better, but he struggles to set them up with a fastball that he can throw for strikes. The good news is that he walked just four of 72 batters this spring. He also allowed four HRs, but struck out 25. He doesn’t have a history of going deep into games, but he did finish six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last year (missing once only by a single out). This was all written here before his first start of the season. He’s proceeded to allow a single run in 12.2 innings, even pitching into the eighth in his last start, but he’s struck out only nine of 51 batters. No fluke either, his SwStr% has been slightly below league average in both starts, but so is his walk rate. The velocity is the same as last year. Perhaps he’s just faced two teams (Royals and Angels), who have a history of putting the ball in play, though there’s been some turnover this year. The pitch mix is essentially the same. The Blue Jays are an average offense, but they’ll swing and miss (26.4 K% vs RHP). The environment in Cleveland is not exactly pitcher friendly, but if we’re going to be getting seven innings out of him now, it could compensate for a strikeout or two less.
Tanner Roark turned in a double digit swinging strike rate (10.1%) for the first time in his career last year en route to a career high 21.4 K% (more changeups, fewer sinkers). This also led to a career high 4.67 ERA. He’s continued and even improved on those bat missing ways this year, but has dropped over a mile per hour in velocity through two starts and was hit hard by the Mets last time out despite striking out nine. The good news is that he faces a Colorado lineup with nearly nothing from the left-hand side with their top hitter ailing and he gets to do that in Washington. There are only a handful of pitchers averaging six innings or more on the board today too.
Tyson Ross failed to capitalize on some enthusiasm this spring in his first start, but his second start in Houston appears a victory considering the matchup (6 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 0 BB – 7 K). Velocity is down from his peak, but 92.4 mph is in line with last year. He hasn’t really missed bats as he’s done in the past, but he’s done a great job of generating weak contact (-2.8 Hard-Soft%) on the ground (58.3 GB%) so far. The Giants seem to have picked up a few more strikeouts against RHP, but little else so far. They should be better, but who knows how much.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
We’re going to stay clear of this section today as 2017 is now old news and 2018 is still being fleshed out. I’d like to see at least three starts before placing pitchers here.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jordan Montgomery has more upside than the results he’s gotten in his brief major league career and would be more interesting in this spot in Detroit if I hadn’t taken a peak at a weather this morning that puts this game in peril. The same goes for Mike Fiers, Reynaldo Lopez and Phil Hughes (or whoever the Twins decide to start, if they even do before the game is cancelled). Of these guys, Lopez would be the interesting ones, but with high winds and temperatures in the 20’s, I can’t see any reason to spend more time here.
Eduardo Rodriguez struck out seven of the 18 batters he faced in his first start, but 92 pitches didn’t even get him out of the fourth inning. He came into the league throwing 95 mph in 2015, but was sitting under 93 mph in his last start, a bit every year. This is a dangerous spot as the Orioles have actually hammered LHP this year like you’d always thought they should, though they have a combined 122 PAs and nobody has more than 15 individually. He does cost just $6.6K on FanDuel with an ability to miss bats against a lineup that seems to either swing and miss or mash.
Zack Greinke had a bit of an injury concern to start the season and has been held below 90 pitches in each of his first two starts, failing to complete six innings. The velocity is down almost another two miles per hour and while such drops haven’t hurt him in the past, we’re going to eventually reach a point where all the junk in the world won’t matter. We may not be entirely there yet as he’s still missing a ton of bats and hasn’t walked a batter yet, but the quality of contact batters do make has become worse and worse (for the pitcher). His hard hit rate is climbing for the third consecutive year (37.5% through two starts). Despite the rough start, the Dodgers should be much better and have struck out only 17% of plate appearances vs RHP. He could pull off 10 Ks with one run, but that’s more the expectation for the cost and the possibility of a lighter workload.
Zach Davies has been a low velocity, quality contact manager, whose pitches both went in relatively slow and came out even slower. This season, he’s been a bat misser who has allowed a lot of hard hit fly balls (27.6 GB%, 40 Hard-Soft%!!!). It looks like more cutters and fewer sinkers so far. Let’s see how long that lasts. Second start results were much better than first and he’s not expensive at all in a pitcher’s park, but faces a hot offense and the weather has suddenly warmed up in New York. This is the pitcher I’m most prepared to be entirely wrong against if the adjustments stick and work out.
Marcus Stroman is an elite ground ball generator with some strikeout upside, although he generally ends up around league average. The problem is that those ground balls are not weakly hit, resulting in a BABIP above .300 for each season he has thrown more than 30 innings. This year, he’s walked eight batters through two starts and has had difficulty stranding runners, but everything else seems the same, although the velocity is down somewhat too (more than a mile per hour). The Cleveland offense should be much more difficult than their 61 wRC+ vs RHP so far. Their peripherals all seem in order despite the results.
Steven Matz did not immediately pick up where he left off after a strong finish to his spring, but was squeezed a bit by C.B. Bucknor behind the plate in his first game (check it out on Brooks Baseball) and struck out eight of 20 Nationals in his second start. The issue is that it was completely a fluke (2.2 SwStr%). The Brewers have struggled against LHP early this season. That shouldn’t be the case and as we can see, it’s less about strikeouts than quality contact so far. This a downgrade in run environment for this offense though. His spring offered hope, but that SwStr% takes a lot of the air out of his last start, while he didn’t do much despite the tight zone in his first.
Vince Velasquez has proven through two starts this year exactly what we’ve now known for a few years. You never know what the hell to expect out of him. This might be worth a lottery ticket at a lower cost, like many of tonight’s fourth tier arms, but he’s not a six inning guy and costs nearly $8K on DraftKings. The Rays have removed some of the strikeouts from their lineup, focusing on batters who have fewer issues with high fastballs than the departed (Morrison, Dickerson, Souza – I don’t immediately have the Fangraphs link, but there was an article this year). The point is, it robs his upside.
Kyle Freeland doesn’t necessarily have poor splits, just odd ones (21.2 K-BB% & 35.6 GB% vs LHBs, 2.7 K-BB% & 57.6 GB% vs RHBs) and both the K-BB% vs LHBs and GB% for RHBs have been a bit diminished away from Coors. Go figure. The Nationals have a lot of RHBs, so lots of ground balls, but little daily fantasy upside, though he’s allowed four HRs in two starts, one in San Diego.
Cole Hamels is the first pitcher we find making his fourth start. While his SwStr% is ridiculous and he’s at least averaging 90 mph in his last two starts after being below that in his first start, he’s still down two miles per hour and has allowed five HRs (46.2 Hard%) with nine walks. All those pitches have kept him from completing six innings in any start yet. So despite the fact that one of the few pitchers on the board averaging over six innings for the past two calendar years, that may not still be the case with this version, who’s throwing more cutters and Fangraphs actually has him down for a few sliders for the first time ever. He “survived” the Astros first time around and actually picks up a park upgrade here, but this is fire he’s playing with.
Mike Leake has estimators almost double his ERA through two starts and the A’s have been good.
Jason Hammel faces the unstoppable Angels.
Dillon Peters allowed nine runs in a start where he had a 14.3 SwStr% last time out. He faces one of the hottest offenses to start the season. They’re not going to remain this good obviously, but people may come to realize that the Pirates are not as bereft of talent as their off-season sell-off has made some people think. They have quite a few league average or better bats when healthy.
Ty Blach has six strikeouts and eight walks through three starts.
Chris Tillman affords us a little break in the action. He should get murderized by the Red Sox unless they’re on a post-Yankee pounding hangover.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 26.7% | 8.9% | 40.0% | 38.5% | Season | 26.7% | 8.9% | 40.0% | 38.5% | Road | 23.6% | 10.9% | 40.0% | 47.3% | L14Days | ||||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | Season | 17.7% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | Road | 19.2% | 5.7% | 16.7% | 9.7% | L14Days | 29.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 26.0% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.2% | 17.2% | 16.1% | Season | 21.6% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 20.6% | Road | 18.5% | 7.7% | 21.7% | 15.4% | L14Days | 22.2% | 13.9% | 16.7% | -17.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 17.0% | Season | 20.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 18.9% | Road | 21.2% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 23.9% | L14Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 15.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 17.1% | Season | 14.2% | 11.5% | 20.0% | 21.4% | Road | 15.7% | 11.0% | 17.8% | 33.4% | L14Days | 6.1% | 16.3% | 7.1% | 21.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 18.1% | Season | 17.1% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 22.3% | Road | 18.0% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 15.7% | L14Days | 32.4% | 12.7% | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 7.1% | Season | 19.4% | 13.7% | 15.8% | -1.1% | Home | 20.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | L14Days | 11.1% | 8.9% | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 8.4% | Season | 25.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 12.2% | Home | 28.4% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 5.9% | L14Days | 38.9% | 11.1% | 50.0% | -44.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 8.2% | Season | 23.1% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 7.4% | Home | 22.9% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 5.0% | L14Days | 43.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 3.8% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 13.7% | Season | 23.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 11.4% | Home | 20.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 17.4% | L14Days | 5.6% | 22.2% | 9.1% | 36.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 14.9% | Season | 18.0% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 15.0% | Home | 17.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 16.7% | L14Days | 16.3% | 10.2% | 22.3% | |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | Season | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | Road | 19.5% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 9.2% | L14Days | 18.6% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 8.8% | Season | 25.1% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 7.4% | Home | 27.9% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | L14Days | 46.2% | 3.9% | 23.1% | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 7.4% | Season | 15.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | Road | 14.2% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 12.1% | L14Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 36.4% | 3.1% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 27.4% | 7.1% | 15.7% | 11.6% | Season | 28.6% | 6.8% | 16.3% | 6.8% | Road | 29.7% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 13.7% | L14Days | 22.7% | 9.1% | 26.7% | |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 7.2% | 17.4% | 12.4% | Season | 19.7% | 7.4% | 17.8% | 11.0% | Road | 18.7% | 8.6% | 21.4% | 12.6% | L14Days | 23.9% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.9% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 12.6% | Season | 27.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 15.6% | Home | 25.5% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 6.2% | L14Days | 17.7% | 7.8% | -13.1% | |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 7.5% | 16.8% | 13.6% | Season | 21.8% | 9.2% | 19.5% | 10.0% | Home | 21.6% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 8.8% | L14Days | 27.3% | 4.6% | -21.5% | |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 4.5% | 13.4% | 15.6% | Season | 16.6% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 16.9% | Home | 16.7% | 4.2% | 15.5% | 15.6% | L14Days | 8.0% | 14.0% | 6.7% | 35.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 25.8% | Season | 15.6% | 5.3% | 13.8% | 28.2% | Home | 17.7% | 5.2% | 19.4% | 33.7% | L14Days | ||||
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | Season | 14.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | Road | 14.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 11.8% | L14Days | 22.9% | 14.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 6.2% | 15.7% | 9.2% | Season | 16.1% | 6.4% | 17.1% | 11.0% | Home | 20.6% | 6.4% | 36.4% | 27.5% | L14Days | 31.6% | 13.2% | 33.3% | |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 6.5% | Season | 21.4% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 11.1% | Home | 23.0% | 7.2% | 17.5% | 8.4% | L14Days | 30.6% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 13.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Yrs | 10.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.8% | Season | 10.6% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | Road | 9.0% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 15.1% | L14Days | 9.2% | 12.3% | 21.6% | |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 10.7% | Season | 15.2% | 12.0% | 1.6% | Home | 27.3% | 13.6% | 29.1% | L14Days | 20.5% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 29.1% | ||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 13.9% | Season | 15.1% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 17.7% | Home | 10.7% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 17.6% | L14Days | 18.8% | 6.3% | 22.2% | -2.8% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 17.9% | Season | 21.6% | 10.8% | 20.8% | 22.9% | Road | 17.6% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 23.7% | L14Days | 23.3% | 7.0% | 10.0% | |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 28.9% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 11.1% | Season | 27.3% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 12.6% | Home | 26.3% | 7.6% | 17.3% | 17.0% | L14Days | 31.0% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 20.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 12.0% | Season | 15.2% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 8.9% | Road | 15.4% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 5.0% | L14Days | 29.2% | 6.3% | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.1% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 13.0% | Season | 26.8% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 15.9% | Road | 23.6% | 5.8% | 13.8% | 9.4% | L14Days | 30.4% | 16.7% | 21.9% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 28.4% | LH | 24.8% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 23.4% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 23.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.3% | 5.8% | 17.2% | 5.5% | RH | 20.5% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 14.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 16.1% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 15.4% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 10.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.7% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 1.5% | RH | 25.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | -1.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 1.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 24.0% | RH | 16.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 23.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 25.4% |
| Astros | Home | 26.5% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 4.5% | LH | 27.0% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 27.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 12.3% | LH | 19.4% | 10.8% | 27.3% | 4.6% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 13.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 28.3% | 7.6% | 16.7% | 8.8% | LH | 25.4% | 11.5% | 22.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 14.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 18.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 19.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 20.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | RH | 27.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 3.9% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Road | 12.1% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 21.1% | RH | 15.5% | 6.0% | 13.2% | 22.8% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 29.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.1% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 22.6% | LH | 29.8% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.2% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 25.5% | RH | 23.8% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 30.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 23.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 10.0% | LH | 31.3% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% |
| Reds | Home | 26.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | RH | 24.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 0.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Indians | Home | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 23.9% | RH | 23.5% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 17.7% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 23.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.0% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 11.4% | RH | 26.4% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.6% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | RH | 23.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.0% | 8.2% | 22.2% | 22.3% | RH | 22.4% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 25.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.2% | 22.2% | 22.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.9% | 7.5% | 32.6% | 22.5% | RH | 24.1% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Twins | Home | 26.0% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | RH | 24.9% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 9.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 16.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.8% | LH | 18.1% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 2.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 10.1% | 18.8% | 18.3% | RH | 22.1% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.2% | 18.8% | -0.6% |
| Padres | Home | 22.6% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 16.3% | LH | 23.7% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 4.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.7% | 9.9% | 26.2% | 14.7% | RH | 23.0% | 8.9% | 19.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Road | 22.0% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 11.7% | RH | 24.6% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 19.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 16.2% |
| Rays | Home | 25.7% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 7.7% | RH | 22.3% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Braves | Road | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% | RH | 20.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 5.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.3% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 13.1% | RH | 21.5% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.4% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | RH | 17.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 15.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 26.7% | 13.5% | 1.98 | |||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 17.7% | 10.4% | 1.70 | 29.6% | 10.3% | 2.87 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 21.6% | 9.8% | 2.20 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 1.82 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 20.9% | 9.5% | 2.20 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 3.23 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 14.2% | 7.1% | 2.00 | 6.1% | 5.3% | 1.15 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 17.1% | 9.7% | 1.76 | 32.4% | 15.0% | 2.16 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 19.4% | 9.4% | 2.06 | 11.1% | 9.8% | 1.13 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 25.8% | 11.7% | 2.21 | 38.9% | 13.0% | 2.99 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 23.1% | 9.5% | 2.43 | 43.1% | 19.6% | 2.20 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 23.5% | 12.0% | 1.96 | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.75 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 18.0% | 9.5% | 1.89 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 1.68 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 22.2% | 12.2% | 1.82 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 1.82 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 25.1% | 12.5% | 2.01 | 46.2% | 15.7% | 2.94 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.60 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 28.6% | 9.7% | 2.95 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.87 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.25 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 27.3% | 12.5% | 2.18 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 21.8% | 9.1% | 2.40 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 1.63 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 16.6% | 8.4% | 1.98 | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.70 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.23 | |||
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 14.5% | 9.0% | 1.61 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 1.75 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 16.1% | 7.1% | 2.27 | 31.6% | 5.5% | 5.75 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 | 30.6% | 11.9% | 2.57 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 10.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 9.2% | 3.6% | 2.56 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 15.2% | 6.8% | 2.24 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 15.1% | 6.2% | 2.44 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.94 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.37 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 2.43 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 27.3% | 12.3% | 2.22 | 31.0% | 11.7% | 2.65 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 15.2% | 7.2% | 2.11 | 29.2% | 10.6% | 2.75 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 26.8% | 12.4% | 2.16 | 30.4% | 16.0% | 1.90 |
Andrew Triggs has the same SwStr%. His actual strikeout rate should probably be something in between this season and last.
Chad Kuhl may be expected to do what he did last year, but the small improvement so far this year has no real merit.
Gerrit Cole has a SwStr% that’s a league average K%. He can cut it in half and still be ahead of last year.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 7.06 | 4.05 | -3.01 | 7.06 | -2.69 | 9.11 | 2.05 | 5.13 | -1.93 | |||||||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 4.27 | 4.54 | 0.27 | 4.27 | 0.26 | 4.47 | 0.20 | 3.54 | -0.73 | 2.53 | 3.04 | 0.51 | 2.96 | 0.43 | 2.95 | 0.42 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 6.41 | 4.16 | -2.25 | 6.41 | -2.01 | 5.33 | -1.08 | 6.62 | 0.21 | 2.25 | 4.36 | 2.11 | 4.01 | 1.76 | 4.55 | 2.30 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 4.35 | 4.79 | 0.44 | 4.35 | 0.26 | 4.24 | -0.11 | 5.15 | 0.80 | 5.06 | 3.52 | -1.54 | 3.47 | -1.59 | 3.33 | -1.73 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 7.84 | 5.76 | -2.08 | 7.84 | -1.97 | 6.93 | -0.91 | 7.82 | -0.02 | 8.68 | 7.05 | -1.63 | 7.15 | -1.53 | 6.37 | -2.31 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.20 | 4.90 | 0.70 | 4.20 | 0.63 | 4.62 | 0.42 | 4.51 | 0.31 | 5.06 | 3.24 | -1.82 | 3.04 | -2.02 | 5.92 | 0.86 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 5.17 | 4.89 | -0.28 | 5.17 | -0.65 | 4.69 | -0.48 | 6.49 | 1.32 | 9.35 | 5.07 | -4.28 | 5.13 | -4.22 | 6.63 | -2.72 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 4.19 | 4.05 | -0.14 | 4.19 | 0.07 | 3.97 | -0.22 | 3.37 | -0.82 | 7.36 | 2.36 | -5.00 | 1.66 | -5.70 | 4.41 | -2.95 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 4.26 | 3.97 | -0.29 | 4.26 | -0.45 | 4.08 | -0.18 | 4.12 | -0.14 | 0.64 | 1.56 | 0.92 | 1.69 | 1.05 | 1.48 | 0.84 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 3.43 | 4.26 | 0.83 | 3.43 | 0.96 | 4.12 | 0.69 | 3.87 | 0.44 | 14.29 | 8.47 | -5.82 | 9.92 | -4.37 | 9.40 | -4.89 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 5.29 | 4.65 | -0.64 | 5.29 | -0.37 | 4.37 | -0.92 | 4.76 | -0.53 | 4.09 | 4.69 | 0.60 | 4.67 | 0.58 | 2.96 | -1.13 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 3.88 | 4.34 | 0.46 | 3.88 | 0.57 | 4.07 | 0.19 | 4.49 | 0.61 | 4.82 | 4.89 | 0.07 | 4.82 | 0.00 | 4.66 | -0.16 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 4.22 | 3.79 | -0.43 | 4.22 | -0.33 | 4.07 | -0.15 | 3.94 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 | -0.45 | -0.45 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 4.10 | 4.93 | 0.83 | 4.10 | 0.60 | 4.57 | 0.47 | 5.86 | 1.76 | 5.56 | 3.59 | -1.97 | 3.57 | -1.99 | 6.75 | 1.19 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 3.88 | 3.29 | -0.59 | 3.88 | -0.95 | 3.17 | -0.71 | 3.78 | -0.10 | 1.59 | 3.91 | 2.32 | 4.01 | 2.42 | 2.34 | 0.75 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 3.09 | 3.85 | 0.76 | 3.09 | 0.49 | 3.90 | 0.81 | 3.51 | 0.42 | 8.38 | 4.52 | -3.86 | 4.16 | -4.22 | 4.60 | -3.78 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.11 | 4.24 | 1.13 | 3.11 | 0.94 | 3.85 | 0.74 | 3.79 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 4.26 | 3.55 | 4.29 | 3.58 | 2.57 | 1.86 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 5.22 | 4.52 | -0.70 | 5.22 | -0.60 | 5.43 | 0.21 | 5.31 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.5 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 2.05 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 3.92 | 4.15 | 0.23 | 3.92 | -0.01 | 3.90 | -0.02 | 4.22 | 0.30 | 3.00 | 6.40 | 3.40 | 5.94 | 2.94 | 5.22 | 2.22 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 5.87 | 5.04 | -0.83 | 5.87 | -0.46 | 5.43 | -0.44 | 7.15 | 1.28 | |||||||
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.72 | 5.44 | 0.72 | 4.72 | 1.03 | 4.75 | 0.03 | 7.12 | 2.40 | 0.69 | 4.65 | 3.96 | 4.53 | 3.84 | 3.97 | 3.28 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 6.08 | 4.71 | -1.37 | 6.08 | -1.50 | 5.05 | -1.03 | 5.52 | -0.56 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 3.02 | 0.02 | 4.94 | 1.94 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 4.67 | 4.31 | -0.36 | 4.67 | -0.52 | 4.13 | -0.54 | 4.00 | -0.67 | 4.50 | 3.13 | -1.37 | 3.13 | -1.37 | 3.97 | -0.53 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 4.78 | 5.36 | 0.58 | 4.78 | 0.23 | 4.42 | -0.36 | 6.61 | 1.83 | 4.11 | 5.39 | 1.28 | 4.68 | 0.57 | 3.83 | -0.28 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 2.70 | 5.53 | 2.83 | 2.70 | 3.09 | 4.01 | 1.31 | 5.11 | 2.41 | 4.22 | 3.92 | -0.30 | 4.12 | -0.10 | 4.92 | 0.70 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 7.71 | 6.17 | -1.54 | 7.71 | -1.43 | 6.18 | -1.53 | 6.24 | -1.47 | 5.25 | 3.45 | -1.80 | 3.39 | -1.86 | 4.47 | -0.78 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 5.13 | 4.73 | -0.40 | 5.13 | -0.54 | 5.52 | 0.39 | 5.19 | 3.51 | -1.68 | 3.28 | -1.91 | 1.78 | -3.41 | ||
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 3.86 | 3.71 | -0.15 | 3.86 | -0.21 | 3.83 | -0.03 | 3.10 | -0.76 | 5.23 | 2.74 | -2.49 | 3.39 | -1.84 | 4.50 | -0.73 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 3.90 | 4.72 | 0.82 | 3.90 | 0.52 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 3.99 | 0.09 | 5.40 | 2.91 | -2.49 | 3.17 | -2.23 | 3.91 | -1.49 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 3.20 | 3.48 | 0.28 | 3.20 | 0.14 | 3.31 | 0.11 | 3.00 | -0.20 | 5.06 | 2.21 | -2.85 | 2.05 | -3.01 | 2.86 | -2.20 |
The same reason for a lack of notes applied here and directly below as it does above. We’re essentially done with 2017 and 2018 is not yet entirely a full thing.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.289 | 0.283 | -0.006 | 30.2% | 22.2% | 3.3% | 77.1% | 39.2% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.294 | 0.000 | 49.8% | 17.7% | 5.9% | 85.6% | 32.6% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.302 | 0.354 | 0.052 | 35.6% | 24.7% | 9.6% | 86.8% | 36.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.321 | 0.015 | 41.9% | 23.3% | 5.1% | 86.3% | 36.5% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.334 | 0.032 | 39.5% | 23.5% | 9.2% | 90.9% | 48.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.251 | -0.038 | 47.5% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 86.7% | 38.5% |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 0.298 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 63.3% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 85.2% | 41.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.303 | 0.299 | -0.004 | 34.9% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 81.8% | 39.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.300 | 0.298 | -0.002 | 45.8% | 20.6% | 11.8% | 85.5% | 38.5% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.283 | 0.265 | -0.018 | 38.3% | 21.7% | 14.9% | 84.6% | 38.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.303 | 0.318 | 0.015 | 38.0% | 20.8% | 7.7% | 89.3% | 36.1% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 40.7% | 17.8% | 6.4% | 86.3% | 32.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.278 | -0.003 | 38.1% | 21.8% | 12.9% | 82.2% | 36.8% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.308 | 0.003 | 53.9% | 18.5% | 11.0% | 89.2% | 43.5% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.298 | 0.335 | 0.037 | 49.4% | 23.8% | 4.7% | 84.0% | 44.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.007 | 62.1% | 18.2% | 4.2% | 89.1% | 36.4% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.303 | 0.273 | -0.030 | 39.5% | 24.1% | 9.2% | 80.1% | 36.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.299 | -0.021 | 42.9% | 20.0% | 7.3% | 86.0% | 34.4% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.283 | 0.309 | 0.026 | 53.7% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 89.9% | 35.8% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.296 | 0.333 | 0.037 | 30.4% | 24.1% | 9.2% | 89.8% | 45.8% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.271 | -0.010 | 30.2% | 21.6% | 15.4% | 84.6% | 40.0% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.319 | 0.329 | 0.010 | 47.1% | 21.5% | 14.3% | 88.4% | 36.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.013 | 48.2% | 19.8% | 5.9% | 85.4% | 36.6% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.308 | 0.290 | -0.018 | 46.7% | 21.5% | 7.3% | 90.1% | 41.7% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.296 | 0.302 | 0.006 | 52.5% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 88.5% | 35.2% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.299 | 0.303 | 0.004 | 46.8% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 92.3% | 34.1% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.303 | -0.001 | 42.5% | 22.7% | 9.7% | 86.6% | 39.5% |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 40.7% | 22.4% | 8.4% | 82.8% | 34.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.302 | 0.004 | 50.2% | 22.6% | 8.4% | 89.5% | 36.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 46.8% | 18.0% | 9.6% | 85.1% | 28.3% |
See note above, though there are a LOT of high Z-O-Swing% guys today. Not a strong look for pitchers. Zack Greinke is the obvious outlier here. Got a lot of batters to chase sliders last year. Will be more interesting below 90 mph this year.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.406 | 0.042 | 0.477 | 0.057 | 0.487 | 0.096 | -0.9 | 90.1 | 20.0 | 43.1 | 65 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.311 | 0.009 | 0.315 | 0.005 | -0.6 | 88.5 | 5.7 | 33.8 | 210 | ||
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.329 | 0.057 | 0.361 | 0.062 | 0.332 | 0.018 | 0.0 | 87.5 | 7.8 | 34.5 | 345 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.331 | 0.013 | 0.352 | 0.007 | 0.361 | 0.001 | 0.0 | 88 | 5.7 | 37.4 | 460 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.398 | 0.021 | 0.396 | 0.071 | 0.433 | -0.034 | -0.3 | 89.6 | 8.3 | 40.2 | 326 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.325 | -0.018 | 0.316 | -0.020 | 0.332 | -0.012 | -0.1 | 87.7 | 4.5 | 34.2 | 445 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 0.335 | 0.014 | 0.283 | 0.031 | 0.335 | 0.014 | -1.4 | 89.1 | 6.6 | 40.7 | 91 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.304 | 0.016 | 0.313 | 0.024 | 0.260 | 0.036 | -0.7 | 86.1 | 7.7 | 29.2 | 377 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.310 | 0.010 | 0.297 | 0.006 | 0.307 | 0.014 | -0.4 | 85.4 | 7.6 | 32.3 | 594 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.304 | -0.006 | 0.312 | -0.043 | 0.344 | -0.018 | -1.0 | 87.5 | 6.4 | 36.4 | 236 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.345 | -0.032 | 0.360 | 0.033 | 0.7 | 88 | 7.5 | 32.4 | 602 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.298 | 0.002 | 0.294 | 0.032 | 0.274 | -0.009 | -0.7 | 86.7 | 6.2 | 31.8 | 453 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.025 | 0.254 | 0.007 | 0.297 | 0.053 | -0.6 | 85.1 | 5.0 | 29.4 | 378 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.310 | 0.031 | 0.351 | 0.014 | 0.324 | 0.092 | 0.5 | 84.6 | 4.3 | 32.5 | 510 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.020 | 0.271 | 0.018 | 0.311 | 0.013 | -0.7 | 85.7 | 5.6 | 31.5 | 162 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.313 | 0.003 | 0.319 | 0.021 | 0.324 | -0.007 | -1.1 | 88.5 | 5.3 | 38.7 | 602 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.310 | -0.011 | 0.342 | -0.017 | 0.285 | -0.046 | 0.5 | 87 | 6.6 | 32.2 | 301 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.333 | 0.024 | 0.336 | 0.002 | 0.416 | 0.077 | -0.4 | 85.9 | 8.2 | 32.3 | 449 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.319 | 0.002 | 0.310 | 0.013 | 0.273 | 0.013 | -1.9 | 87.3 | 5.3 | 34.7 | 606 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.360 | 0.026 | 0.376 | 0.010 | -1.1 | 90.5 | 9.9 | 37.0 | 192 | ||
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.320 | 0.001 | 0.293 | 0.069 | 0.308 | 0.004 | -0.2 | 87.2 | 4.9 | 25.3 | 162 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.337 | 0.031 | 0.373 | 0.075 | 0.3 | 87.6 | 6.6 | 37.9 | 227 | ||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.312 | 0.008 | 0.309 | 0.018 | 0.298 | 0.039 | -0.8 | 86.3 | 5.4 | 32.6 | 540 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.328 | 0.001 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 0.364 | -0.052 | -2.4 | 85.7 | 3.7 | 31.7 | 575 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.319 | -0.004 | 0.341 | -0.017 | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.1 | 84.8 | 1.6 | 22.2 | 63 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.367 | 0.011 | 0.363 | 0.005 | 0.427 | 0.101 | -1.1 | 85.8 | 7.6 | 27.2 | 158 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.353 | 0.012 | 0.348 | -0.025 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 7.6 | 39.0 | 210 | ||
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.290 | 0.011 | 0.307 | 0.028 | 0.240 | 0.035 | -0.4 | 85.6 | 6.7 | 31.0 | 493 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.317 | -0.026 | 0.330 | 0.017 | -0.6 | 85.2 | 4.0 | 29.6 | 629 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.281 | 0.005 | 0.276 | 0.028 | 0.326 | -0.022 | -0.8 | 86.4 | 7.2 | 30.9 | 541 |
Gerrit Cole was a weak contact generator last year (85.4 mph aEV). This year he’s still doing that (3.8 Hard-Soft%), but he’s also a no contact generator.
It may be safe to say that the Kenta Maeda vs Zack Greinke matchup will not feature a lot of hard contact. No, it’s baseball. It’s never safe to say anything. They do tie for the lowest xwOBA on the board in 2017.
Ty Blach had a stunning effective velocity 2.4 mph below his 90.3 mph average last year. At 89.8 mph through three starts this year, he may be looking like a left-handed Jered Weaver soon.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This became a lot more difficult than I thought the first full slate would be. I originally had nobody as a top tier value and had to bump a few guys up. Many of tonight’s pitchers have started the season differently than they were previously or differently than expected. It might seem relatively obvious, but the top guy is the top guy tonight. If you’re a bit apprehensive about Mr. Cole’s recent past, put that aside and believe in the process in Houston. Other than that…it’s a real crapshoot on Friday.
Value Tier One
Gerrit Cole (1) is the highest priced pitcher on the board and it’s not even close. That escalated rather quickly. If he does what he’s done in his first two starts, he’ll be more than fine. His rematch with one of those offenses comes with a significant park upgrade. Houston is one of the most negative run environments (maybe THE most negative) in baseball over the last few years.
Value Tier Two
Tanner Roark is a little more strikeouts than weak contact these days and while it hasn’t been the best thing for his ERA as of yet, it is better for his daily fantasy upside. He’s in a great spot catching the Rockies on the road without their top left-handed bat.
Value Tier Three
Mike Clevinger has been different than we expected, though his non-FIP estimators are actually not much different and he hasn’t been bad. Strikeouts are suddenly down, but he pitched into the eighth innings last time out and is generating more ground balls so far. I don’t immediately see what’s different, but there’s some upside in this matchup. We can hope that the strikeout drop has been matchup oriented, but we don’t know that and we can’t assume he’s a seven inning guy from here on out either and the cost isn’t low.
Andrew Triggs is interesting in Seattle at a mid-range cost. He missed bats, but got hit hard against the Rangers, then kept the Angels grounded with week contact, but didn’t miss many bats. Somehow the results were almost the same both times. And each time he faced exactly 22 batters as well. He barely averages over five innings per start, but that’s also most of today’s board if you look at the main table.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kenta Maeda would be higher on this list if his cost weren’t so high. In fact, at $9.3K on FanDuel, I’m not even sure you can use him because he’s only completed six innings in six of 26 starts since last year. He’s different from all of the other pitchers in this tier in that concerns have nothing to do with expected performance quality.
Jake Faria has looked terrible, but both of those starts were against the Red Sox. He has previously looked good (last year) and now costs nothing against an offense that swings and misses a lot. I don’t know that he’ll bounce back. I don’t know that there’s nothing wrong. But he costs nothing now and this is a very reasonable shot to take if you still believe in his upside. He could torpedo your lineup or put up 20+ points in your secondary spot on DraftKings.
Andrew Heaney has some talent and is facing the Royals as a fly ball pitcher in Kansas City at a low price. I have no idea what to really make of him, but he has the ability to triple his price point in a secondary role on DraftKings in this spot if he’s going 20+ batters again.
Chad Kuhl may be fine here, almost entirely based on the matchup in a league average price range or better. He’s another guy who rarely finishes six innings though, so he’s probably better suited as a secondary DraftKings arm, though his cost is higher there.
Tyson Ross is another one of those cheap lottery ticket types with what seems a favorable matchup in a favorable park. This is not a pitcher you should use with a high expectation and low risk tolerance.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.