Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 20th
This is it! A day some of you may have been looking forward to, but perhaps one I’ll dread. It’s the first full 15 game night slate of the season (with an extra afternoon affair thrown in). The negative is that there’s less time to spend on each pitcher with potential edges being missed. There’s a bit more to cover and a lot of pitchers to get to.
The White Sox used James Shields in their marathon with the White Sox on Wednesday and have not named a starter for Friday as of this morning. It’s either Shields (one inning) or Lucas Giolito supposedly. Since the latter is more interesting, he’ll be listed, though I’m fully prepared for Shields to get the nod at some inconvenient point in time. But right now, I don’t even care because I see Scherzer vs Kershaw at the end of a long slate. That is a thing that will really be happening tonight!
Three weeks into the season, everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where they are supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. The exceptions are DRA, which Baseball Prospectus has not calculated for 2018 yet and Statcast Home/Away xwOBA, which combines last season with this one right now. After missing a few columns on Tuesday, all Statcast numbers have now been restored below.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.7 | 3.80 | 4.4 | 29.9% | 0.93 | 3.05 | 2.68 | Giants | 62 | 72 | 67 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | -0.1 | 4.96 | 5.8 | 36.9% | 0.97 | 4.76 | 3.10 | Pirates | 98 | 98 | 62 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | -2.5 | 5.00 | 5.2 | 38.5% | 0.92 | 7.22 | 5.89 | Cardinals | 67 | 84 | 104 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | -2 | 3.49 | 6.0 | 44.5% | 0.92 | 3.10 | 4.50 | Twins | 112 | 92 | 39 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.1 | 2.71 | 6.7 | 48.6% | 0.90 | 2.69 | 1.73 | Nationals | 121 | 79 | 105 |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | -5.2 | 4.47 | 5.3 | 38.9% | 1.07 | 5.19 | 2.95 | Royals | 75 | 106 | 109 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | -3.7 | 4.07 | 5.5 | 44.7% | 0.96 | 4.41 | Athletics | 122 | 107 | 143 | |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 5.1 | 4.22 | 5.8 | 34.1% | 0.99 | 4.63 | 3.09 | Indians | 68 | 71 | 98 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.50 | 5.8 | 47.3% | 1.15 | 4.67 | 3.66 | Rangers | 79 | 84 | 83 | |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 2.6 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 48.9% | 0.97 | 4.12 | 2.58 | Phillies | 123 | 88 | 97 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | -3.4 | 4.39 | 5.9 | 39.8% | 1.07 | 5.16 | 4.17 | Tigers | 120 | 99 | 177 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 3.2 | 3.83 | 6.4 | 43.5% | 0.93 | 3.59 | Angels | 96 | 118 | 66 | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.65 | 5.4 | 48.9% | 1.02 | 4.43 | 6.09 | Marlins | 54 | 71 | 80 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 16.9 | 3.71 | 5.7 | 45.3% | 1.33 | 3.38 | 3.33 | Cubs | 92 | 109 | 118 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | -23.8 | 3.63 | 6.5 | 33.2% | 0.98 | 3.71 | 2.19 | White Sox | 92 | 104 | 91 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.9 | 4.69 | 5.7 | 51.0% | 0.96 | 4.50 | 5.13 | Red Sox | 133 | 141 | 183 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 5 | 3.94 | 6.0 | 48.3% | 1.33 | 3.68 | 4.89 | Rockies | 57 | 47 | 38 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.1 | 4.87 | 5.6 | 44.2% | 0.92 | 4.81 | 3.51 | Rays | 83 | 84 | 96 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -5.2 | 5.35 | 5.7 | 41.5% | 0.98 | 4.45 | 6.28 | Astros | 112 | 92 | 88 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 4.55 | 5.8 | 31.6% | 1.03 | 4.98 | 3.77 | Yankees | 124 | 110 | 153 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 4.60 | 5.5 | 37.5% | 1.17 | 1.48 | Padres | 95 | 87 | 100 | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -16.3 | 2.92 | 6.6 | 34.3% | 0.90 | 3.20 | 1.54 | Dodgers | 103 | 107 | 128 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 2.2 | 4.31 | 5.5 | 47.2% | 0.92 | 3.74 | 5.23 | Reds | 67 | 68 | 68 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | -7.1 | 3.34 | 5.1 | 38.2% | 1.15 | 3.71 | 4.32 | Mariners | 98 | 114 | 82 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.1 | 2.91 | 5.6 | 51.7% | 0.99 | 3.77 | 2.06 | Braves | 122 | 111 | 126 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 10.5 | 4.51 | 5.2 | 44.8% | 0.99 | 4.83 | 2.73 | Mets | 90 | 66 | 106 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 1.4 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 53.3% | 1.03 | 3.87 | 4.56 | Blue Jays | 89 | 113 | 127 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 27 | 4.03 | 6.0 | 47.3% | 0.99 | 4.29 | 3.77 | Orioles | 55 | 71 | 94 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.97 | 5.0 | 41.2% | 1.02 | 6.30 | 5.82 | Brewers | 88 | 96 | 110 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -1.3 | 5.53 | 4.9 | 48.8% | 1.17 | 5.37 | 2.86 | Diamondbacks | 104 | 91 | 91 |
Andrew Heaney has missed nearly two full seasons after Tommy John surgery. He’s made one start in high A ball this month, striking out six of 22 batters. He does have a league average SwStr% in 116 career innings. He essentially made another AAA start against the Kansas City Royals last week and struck out seven of 22 batters faced, throwing 85 pitches and missing 11 bats. A couple of the Giants’ right-handed bats are starting to swing better, but they’ve been awful (72 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs LHP, 22.3 K-BB% last seven days) and he faces them in one of the more negative run environments in play (just don’t try to tell that to the Red Sox).
Clayton Kershaw looked good, but human over his first three starts (19 IP – 4 ER – 3 BB – 19 K – 77 BF). He rang up 12 Ks in 24 batters last time out. He’s faced at least 24 batters in each start. He’s continued allowing more home runs (four), a trend that started last year, so it may not be insane to roster a Ryan Zimmerman, but without Rendon, this offense isn’t as potent against southpaws (79 wRC+, 28.4 K%). Steven Matz struck out 14 of 35 Nationals he faced in two starts. The best left-handed pitcher in the game could carve them up in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Dylan Bundy had his worst outing of the season last time out by innings (5.2), runs (three) and strikeouts (six). He’s throwing even more sliders this year (and may be mixing in a few sinkers), generating a 16.3 SwStr% that’s third best on the board. He’s not throwing 95 mph anymore, but that’s what these high slider guys are showing you. You can miss bats without it. It’s the remainder of the results that depends on what you do with your other pitches and he seems to be doing that well too. He’s induced seven infield flies so far and has an elite Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%. The 9.1% Barrels/BBE are a bit concerning. As a fly ball pitcher in Baltimore, there’s always going to be some risk, especially against a powerful Cleveland lineup, who should be better than they have been (71 wRC+, but 17.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Jakob Junis allowed his first runs of the season in his last start (4.2 IP – 4 ER – 3 HR), but that was against a powerful, predominantly right-handed Angels’ offense and he still struck out seven of 22 batters faced. This young man is a slider machine and he’s already dominated a poor Detroit team (7 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 6 K – 25 BF)…who are actually the second hottest offense in the league over the last week?
Justin Verlander struck out five Rangers in his first start, but has struck out 29 of 78 batters since. He’s faced at least 25 batters in three straight and has allowed just a single run in his last 15 innings. The White Sox haven’t been as bad as expected and Chicago is not always the friendliest of parks to fly ball pitchers. This is one I’d check the weather (particularly winds) on, but the White Sox have struck out in a quarter of plate appearances against RHP, though the league average is 23% this year.
Max Scherzer has at least 10 strikeouts in three of four starts, allowing two runs or less in three of them. The Dodgers are not an easy assignment by any means, but Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park. While he’s only exceeded 24 batters in one start, he’s thrown at least 100 pitchers in all four.
Noah Syndergaard combines a 37.9 K% with a 54.2 GB% with a 22.9% 95+ mph EV. He’s allowed a couple of HRs on pitches which had no business being hit hard and he’s been some poor BABIP luck. His .251 xwOBA sits only behind Scherzer. The two concerns here are that he hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start, though he still has double digit strikeouts twice, and Braves have been good (111 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP).
Sean Newcomb has walked eight of 71 batters, but has high strikeout upside. I’m not sure that’s 30% strikeout upside, but high enough against a Mets’ offense with a 29.6 K% against LHP. The Mets should improve with a Cespedes, Frazier, Flores middle of the lineup against southpaws, but it’s probably still a spot where he can generate a few swings and misses. His BABIP has no reason being this high and his 2.4% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board. He adds a 51.2 GB% and -9.7 Hard-Soft% to that high strikeout upside.
Sonny Gray had a great first start and had declined in each subsequent one. A poor start in Boston can be forgiven and his best effort has been against the Jays even if he only went four innings in that game (18 SwStr%). His 60.5% ground ball rate and 2.3 Hard-Soft% look fantastic, though his Statcast board tells a different story with a 90.7 mph aEV that’s tied for second worst on the board. In the end, his estimators are still three runs above his ERA and that’s virtually never sustainable for very long. The Blue Jays have been formidable even without much from Donaldson, though they do have a 25.5 K% to go along with their 18.2 HR/FB vs RHP. The other major concern is that he hasn’t been allowed to throw even 90 pitches in a start yet.
Trevor Bauer struck out a lot of batters last year with a below average SwStr%, but once he became a “Slider Revolution” guy (I gotta trademark that quickly), the SwStr% increased. He’s continued on that path, doubling his career slider usage to 20% this season and has struck out seven in each of his three starts. As long as he keeps his walk rate around league average, this new version of him can be his best self and a very useful daily fantasy pitcher (long time readers may remember I haven’t been much of a fan in the past). He’s gone seven innings in each of his last two starts. Cleveland may have been on the cutting edge of the multi-inning relief Ace, but they will also let their stronger starters go deep into games. He’s become one of those now and has earned some trust. Baltimore is a tough place to pitch for a fly ball pitcher, but they have a 28.3 K% vs RHP and a 30.8 K% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Kyle Hendricks (.264 – 93.1% – 20) routinely beats his estimators due to strong contact management and a great defense, which is why I won’t penalize him for the low BABIP, but he’s not stranding 93.1% of runners all year. He’s still generating low quality contact, but both his ground ball and strikeout rate are way down so far. A normally high floor, low upside pitcher, there’s no reason to bother with him at Coors tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Felix Hernandez has had a terrible start, a marginal one, a decent one and a good one with the latter being his most recent. His swinging strike rate is below average, but has been above eight in three of four starts. His 40 GB% has been above that in three of four starts and five of his eight walks have come in one start. His overall numbers are probably a little scarier than what it looks like if you break it down into individual starts, but there are a couple of scary things: his Z-Contact% and his Statcast board. The Rangers are certainly beatable (84 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), but a bit more dangerous in this park. I wouldn’t be surprised though, if he…surprised at a low price tonight. I’m waffling back and forth about including him as a fourth tier arm. Now would probably be a good time to mention that umpire information is available for Bat and Premium subscribers in LineupHQ. Incidentals like this, lineup and weather could influence here.
Tyson Ross came through as a lottery ticket in his last start with six innings and no earned runs against the Giants (five strikeouts) and hasn’t been bad for the Padres. He’s not getting a ton of swings and misses with his slider, which is not a great thing and still only throwing with the same reduced velocity he did in Texas last year, but what the 23.0 Z-O-Swing% does imply is that he might be getting a lot of ground balls on sliders out of the zone (54.5 GB%). He may be worth a flier in Arizona as a DraftKings two guy with a cost still below $6K because they’re not very deep with dangerous left-handed bats, but he costs a lot more on FanDuel and I’m not that enthusiastic about him yet.
Chris Archer has a double digit SwStr% in each start. That’s the good news. He’s allowed at least four runs in all four starts, completing six innings just once (his first start). His velocity was down in his first two starts and has fallen even further in his last two. Weather should not have been a factor in that in two of his four starts inside a dome. The Twins are good even if their recent numbers reflect facing Kluber and Carrasco. While he’s still getting swings and misses, batters are more able to lay off the slider and punish slower pitches in the zone (47.8 Z-O-Swing% below is worst on the board). His 91.3 mph aEV is worst on the board. Consider some powerful Minnesota bats against him. There are many safer options on today’s board, but GPP players could always consider the strikeout potential for a low level of exposure.
Jon Gray is a ground ball pitcher at home and a strikeout pitcher on the road by intention. He did strike out six of 25 Padres in his lone Coors start, but also allowed seven runs (two home runs). He also had just a 38.9 GB% in that start, so maybe things have changed? This really isn’t a spot we need to mess with tonight.
Daniel Norris has struck out nine of 30 batters in two long relief outings with a high of 64 pitches. He could rack up a few strikeouts against the Royals in a great spot, but he’ll only see the sixth inning if he’s near perfect.
Ivan Nova struck out nine in his last start and has had at least a 9.5 SwStr% in three of four starts. He never struck out even eight in any start last year though and has an 8.4 career SwStr% (8.3% last year) with no significant pitch selection alterations. In fact, he’s throwing more sinkers if anything. This does not compute. He has also faced Miami, Chicago (NL), and Detroit. All either poor offenses or at least ones who swing and miss quite a bit. Minnesota, perhaps the best offense he’s faced, had a 3.7 SwStr% against him. Not that the Phillies won’t swing and miss, but he’s traditionally had some major platoon issues and has the second highest aEV on the board (90.7 mph – tied) and is in a dangerous park. Remember that home run issues essentially ran him out of New York.
Lance Lynn struck out nine Astros last time out, which completely blows my mind, and has a double digit SwStr% in both starts, as it looks like he’s going with more cutters and fewer sinkers so far, but he’s walked 10 of 42 batters with just 29.5% of pitchers in the strike zone. The Rays aren’t striking out as much against RHP this year (22% is actually less than the league average) after jettisoning a lot of their higher strikeout guys this off-season.
Marco Estrada generates popups, but at Yankee Stadium, those may leave the yard. His SwStr% has been more impressive than his actual K%, but there’s nothing to suggest he’ll remain much above his career rate of 10.6%. He’s been at 10.9% each of the last two years with a strikeout rate slightly above average. The Yankees not named Stanton haven’t been striking out a lot.
Jhoulys Chacin is someone you may want to use against a poor offense (71 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP), but he’s been awful, completing five innings just once in four starts and not even coming close to a reasonable strikeout or swinging strike rate. In fact, I’d consider Justin Bour a great play against a pitcher with significant platoon splits in a nice hitting environment.
Drew Pomeranz makes his first start of the season off a forearm issue. He’s walked nine of 42 in two minor league rehab starts, allowing two home runs. Boston beat writers suggest he won’t have a suppressed pitch limit, but we’re concerned with quality right now, which he hasn’t shown in the minors. Oakland can smash.
Mike Minor has had one short start, one good one and most recently, one bad one. The numbers are all over the place and I’m not sure what to think, but at least we don’t really have to worry much about that against a tough Seattle offense (114 wRC+, 17.9 K% vs LHP) in Texas.
Michael Wacha is in a fine spot hosting the Reds, but…sigh. I used to know a girl who called dudes “characters”. She’d say stuff like, “I just can’t with this character anymore.” I think this applies here because I just can’t with this character anymore.
Ben Lively was a contact manager last year. His hard hit rate is higher than his ground ball rate this year and the strikeout increase may not be real.
Lucas Giolito is more interesting than James Shields and I stand by that. That doesn’t make him a good play against even a disappointing Houston offense thus far. How the hell do you run an ERA above five with a .228 BABIP? Try walking 12 batters in three starts.
Brandon Finnegan made his first major league start since last June and walked four, allowing two HRs to the same Cardinals he faces tonight. At least he gets a park upgrade. He made just four starts last year.
Jeff Samardzija makes his first start of the season off just 2.2 innings in high A ball. He did strike out five of 15 batters, but allowed six runs. He’s an easy pass against the Angels tonight.
Matt Koch is a 27 year-old with 20 major league innings. He has thrown two innings in relief with an additional AAA start this year in which he struck out a single batter. He did strike out three of six in that major league relief outing, but with just a 2.9 SwStr%.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 8.1% | 33.3% | 27.9% | Season | 31.8% | 4.6% | -21.5% | Home | 30.4% | 6.5% | 40.0% | 27.6% | L14Days | 31.8% | 4.6% | -21.5% | ||
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 8.4% | Season | 24.3% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 6.2% | Home | 17.8% | 5.7% | 22.2% | 0.8% | L14Days | 26.7% | 4.4% | 22.2% | 9.7% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 19.6% | Season | 18.2% | 18.2% | 50.0% | 21.5% | Road | 20.0% | 30.0% | 33.3% | 13.3% | L14Days | 18.2% | 18.2% | 50.0% | 21.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 19.8% | Season | 25.0% | 9.4% | 18.2% | 17.7% | Home | 31.3% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 27.5% | L14Days | 20.4% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 21.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 30.9% | 3.4% | 13.1% | 5.4% | Season | 30.7% | 3.0% | 19.0% | 1.5% | Home | 32.9% | 4.2% | 17.0% | 11.6% | L14Days | 36.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% | |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 23.1% | Season | 30.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | Home | 19.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 31.9% | L14Days | 17.7% | 5.9% | |||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 12.4% | Season | Road | 21.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 12.8% | Season | 29.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 10.6% | Home | 21.9% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 15.2% | L14Days | 30.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 8.3% | 18.4% | 13.9% | Season | 16.3% | 8.7% | 18.5% | 15.2% | Road | 17.4% | 6.8% | 25.5% | 19.4% | L14Days | 20.4% | 2.0% | 13.3% | 25.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 4.3% | 16.0% | 17.3% | Season | 21.8% | 4.0% | 13.8% | 21.9% | Road | 18.4% | 4.7% | 18.5% | 21.8% | L14Days | 27.3% | 20.0% | 15.7% | |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 18.2% | Season | 21.9% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 8.0% | Road | 17.3% | 5.5% | 11.8% | 17.3% | L14Days | 20.8% | 6.3% | 17.6% | 9.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 4.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | Season | Road | 25.6% | 3.1% | 17.1% | 15.0% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | Season | 12.5% | 11.4% | 16.7% | 21.2% | Home | 20.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | L14Days | 11.9% | 14.3% | 12.9% | |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.2% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | Season | 23.7% | 5.2% | 15.8% | 14.7% | Home | 22.0% | 6.5% | 16.7% | 3.3% | L14Days | 24.0% | 4.0% | 30.0% | 16.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 12.7% | Season | 33.7% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | Road | 28.3% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 18.1% | L14Days | 37.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 14.3% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 13.1% | Season | 11.8% | 8.2% | 26.1% | 7.5% | Home | 15.4% | 6.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | L14Days | 19.1% | 14.3% | 25.0% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 3.4% | Season | 16.7% | 9.0% | 20.0% | -3.5% | Road | 21.6% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | L14Days | 15.1% | 7.6% | 25.0% | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 8.3% | Season | 28.6% | 23.8% | 16.7% | 15.0% | Road | 20.3% | 11.6% | 17.5% | 13.4% | L14Days | 42.9% | 19.1% | 12.5% | |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.7% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 15.9% | Season | 9.9% | 14.8% | 7.0% | Home | 20.9% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 14.3% | L14Days | 12.7% | 14.6% | |||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | Season | 19.4% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 9.8% | Road | 22.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 4.8% | L14Days | 26.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 20.7% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | Season | 50.0% | 66.7% | Home | L14Days | 50.0% | 66.7% | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.5% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 8.3% | Season | 38.4% | 4.0% | 6.5% | -1.8% | Road | 34.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | L14Days | 41.2% | 2.0% | 7.1% | -20.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 10.2% | Season | 17.7% | 14.7% | 16.7% | 26.7% | Home | 22.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | L14Days | 21.7% | 17.4% | 21.4% | |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | Season | 22.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 16.6% | Home | 29.0% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | L14Days | 20.9% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | Season | 37.9% | 5.8% | 18.2% | -8.3% | Road | 19.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | L14Days | 35.6% | 6.7% | -16.0% | ||
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 7.1% | Season | 31.0% | 11.3% | 18.2% | -9.8% | Home | 20.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 12.7% | L14Days | 32.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | -27.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 13.5% | Season | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.3% | Home | 22.9% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 6.7% | L14Days | 15.2% | 8.7% | -5.9% | ||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 16.2% | Season | 24.7% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 18.5% | Road | 25.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 19.4% | L14Days | 23.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 19.5% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 13.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 17.6% | Season | 13.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 17.6% | Road | 10.5% | 15.8% | -7.2% | L14Days | 9.1% | 9.1% | 14.3% | ||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 14.5% | Season | 18.7% | 5.3% | 16.7% | 5.4% | Road | 21.3% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 9.3% | L14Days | 23.5% | 2.0% | 22.2% | 5.4% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 24.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 20.9% | LH | 25.5% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 18.5% | L7Days | 27.4% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 28.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.8% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 17.7% | RH | 19.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 13.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 24.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | LH | 27.2% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 14.0% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 17.0% |
| Twins | Road | 24.2% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 12.1% | RH | 24.0% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 12.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 10.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 12.5% | 19.3% | 11.7% | LH | 28.4% | 15.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.8% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Road | 20.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 14.0% | LH | 25.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 19.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 26.1% | LH | 23.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 18.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 29.3% |
| Indians | Road | 23.6% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 11.2% | RH | 23.5% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 17.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 3.6% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 22.0% | RH | 25.0% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 23.1% | L7Days | 30.9% | 5.7% | 17.7% | 28.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.2% | 12.9% | 18.8% | 7.6% | RH | 28.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.2% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 24.8% | RH | 18.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 27.6% |
| Angels | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 18.6% | RH | 17.6% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 20.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | RH | 24.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 4.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 11.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 14.1% | RH | 22.2% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 12.3% | 7.7% | -2.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.5% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 10.3% | RH | 24.8% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 19.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 36.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 15.7% | 8.1% | 16.3% | 18.8% | RH | 15.9% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 21.4% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.4% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 26.7% | 8.3% | 18.9% | -1.4% | RH | 23.1% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 2.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.2% | 12.5% | -7.2% |
| Rays | Home | 22.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 14.4% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 18.2% |
| Astros | Road | 23.8% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 16.8% | RH | 23.9% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 6.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.8% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 13.8% | RH | 22.6% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.2% | 20.0% | 24.8% |
| Padres | Road | 29.3% | 5.7% | 15.4% | 2.0% | RH | 27.9% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 27.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.7% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 4.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 10.8% |
| Reds | Road | 22.3% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 7.3% | RH | 24.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 17.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.8% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 13.8% | LH | 17.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.4% | 16.4% | 2.3% |
| Braves | Home | 18.4% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.4% | RH | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Mets | Road | 26.4% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 15.3% | LH | 29.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 14.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 16.9% | RH | 25.5% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 16.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 28.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 25.7% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | RH | 28.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 30.8% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 14.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 12.4% | RH | 25.5% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 10.0% | 20.4% | 12.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 17.5% | RH | 25.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.0% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 31.8% | 12.9% | 2.47 | 31.8% | 12.9% | 2.47 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 24.3% | 8.6% | 2.83 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 2.83 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 18.2% | 6.6% | 2.76 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 2.76 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.0% | 14.2% | 1.76 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 1.76 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 30.7% | 13.2% | 2.33 | 30.7% | 13.2% | 2.33 |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 30.0% | 14.2% | 2.11 | 30.0% | 14.2% | 2.11 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | ||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 29.8% | 16.3% | 1.83 | 29.8% | 16.3% | 1.83 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.09 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.09 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 21.8% | 11.0% | 1.98 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 1.98 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | ||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 12.5% | 6.7% | 1.87 | 12.5% | 6.7% | 1.87 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.21 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.21 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 33.7% | 13.4% | 2.51 | 33.7% | 13.4% | 2.51 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.03 | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.03 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 28.6% | 13.0% | 2.20 | 28.6% | 13.0% | 2.20 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 9.9% | 8.0% | 1.24 | 9.9% | 8.0% | 1.24 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 19.4% | 12.4% | 1.56 | 19.4% | 12.4% | 1.56 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 50.0% | 2.9% | 17.24 | 50.0% | 2.9% | 17.24 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 38.4% | 18.3% | 2.10 | 38.4% | 18.3% | 2.10 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 17.7% | 7.6% | 2.33 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 2.33 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 22.2% | 10.1% | 2.20 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 2.20 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 37.9% | 16.9% | 2.24 | 37.9% | 16.9% | 2.24 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 31.0% | 11.5% | 2.70 | 31.0% | 11.5% | 2.70 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 22.4% | 11.9% | 1.88 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 1.88 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 24.7% | 10.1% | 2.45 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 2.45 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 13.6% | 7.4% | 1.84 | 13.6% | 7.4% | 1.84 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.08 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.08 |
Dylan Bundy is keeping some pretty great company this year.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.40 | 2.68 | -2.72 | 5.40 | -2.62 | 0.93 | -4.47 | 5.13 | -0.27 | 5.40 | 2.68 | -2.72 | 2.78 | -2.62 | 0.93 | -4.47 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 5.87 | 3.39 | -2.48 | 5.87 | -2.37 | 3.59 | -2.28 | 5.63 | -0.24 | 5.87 | 3.40 | -2.47 | 3.5 | -2.37 | 3.59 | -2.28 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 10.38 | 5.87 | -4.51 | 10.38 | -4.91 | 10.06 | -0.32 | 4.29 | -6.09 | 10.38 | 5.89 | -4.49 | 5.47 | -4.91 | 10.06 | -0.32 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 7.84 | 3.82 | -4.02 | 7.84 | -3.94 | 4.78 | -3.06 | 3.28 | -4.56 | 7.84 | 3.83 | -4.01 | 3.9 | -3.94 | 4.78 | -3.06 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 1.73 | 2.49 | 0.76 | 1.73 | 0.61 | 3.09 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.37 | 1.73 | 2.49 | 0.76 | 2.34 | 0.61 | 3.09 | 1.36 |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 7.11 | 2.84 | -4.27 | 7.11 | -4.67 | 1.71 | -5.40 | 6.33 | -0.78 | 7.11 | 2.84 | -4.27 | 2.44 | -4.67 | 1.71 | -5.40 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 3.90 | |||||||||||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 1.40 | 3.04 | 1.64 | 1.40 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 0.64 | 3.72 | 2.32 | 1.40 | 3.04 | 1.64 | 3.15 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 0.64 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.48 | 4.83 | -0.65 | 5.48 | -0.40 | 6.18 | 0.70 | 3.95 | -1.53 | 5.48 | 4.84 | -0.64 | 5.08 | -0.40 | 6.18 | 0.70 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.88 | 3.59 | -1.29 | 4.88 | -0.97 | 4.22 | -0.66 | 5.44 | 0.56 | 4.88 | 3.59 | -1.29 | 3.91 | -0.97 | 4.22 | -0.66 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 1.93 | 3.84 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 2.59 | 4.63 | 2.70 | 4.80 | 2.87 | 1.93 | 3.85 | 1.92 | 4.52 | 2.59 | 4.63 | 2.70 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 3.56 | |||||||||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 5.60 | 5.33 | -0.27 | 5.60 | -0.28 | 5.96 | 0.36 | 4.14 | -1.46 | 5.60 | 5.34 | -0.26 | 5.32 | -0.28 | 5.96 | 0.36 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 6.23 | 3.43 | -2.80 | 6.23 | -3.04 | 3.64 | -2.59 | 3.51 | -2.72 | 6.23 | 3.44 | -2.79 | 3.19 | -3.04 | 3.64 | -2.59 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.35 | 2.67 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.98 | 2.83 | 1.48 | 3.12 | 1.77 | 1.35 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 3.33 | 1.98 | 2.83 | 1.48 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 9.87 | 5.17 | -4.70 | 9.87 | -4.47 | 7.86 | -2.01 | 3.88 | -5.99 | 9.87 | 5.18 | -4.69 | 5.4 | -4.47 | 7.86 | -2.01 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.71 | 4.75 | 1.04 | 3.71 | 1.11 | 6.07 | 2.36 | 3.38 | -0.33 | 3.71 | 4.75 | 1.04 | 4.82 | 1.11 | 6.07 | 2.36 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 5.00 | 5.73 | 0.73 | 5.00 | -0.18 | 5.24 | 0.24 | 4.52 | -0.48 | 5.00 | 5.73 | 0.73 | 4.82 | -0.18 | 5.24 | 0.24 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 5.50 | 6.72 | 1.22 | 5.50 | 1.80 | 4.91 | -0.59 | 5.29 | -0.21 | 5.50 | 6.72 | 1.22 | 7.3 | 1.80 | 4.91 | -0.59 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 4.24 | 4.74 | 0.50 | 4.24 | 0.83 | 5.02 | 0.78 | 5.39 | 1.15 | 4.24 | 4.74 | 0.50 | 5.07 | 0.83 | 5.02 | 0.78 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.00 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 0.13 | 0.13 | ||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.73 | 0.40 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.53 | 1.20 | 1.73 | 0.40 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 5.52 | 5.39 | -0.13 | 5.52 | -0.52 | 5.52 | 0.00 | 5.16 | -0.36 | 5.52 | 5.40 | -0.12 | 5 | -0.52 | 5.52 | 0.00 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 4.60 | 4.62 | 0.02 | 4.60 | 0.64 | 4.35 | -0.25 | 2.83 | -1.77 | 4.60 | 4.63 | 0.03 | 5.24 | 0.64 | 4.35 | -0.25 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.95 | 1.98 | -0.97 | 2.95 | -1.27 | 2.10 | -0.85 | 3.85 | 0.90 | 2.95 | 1.99 | -0.96 | 1.68 | -1.27 | 2.10 | -0.85 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 4.02 | 3.31 | -0.71 | 4.02 | -1.09 | 3.52 | -0.50 | 5.65 | 1.63 | 4.02 | 3.32 | -0.70 | 2.93 | -1.09 | 3.52 | -0.50 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 6.92 | 3.85 | -3.07 | 6.92 | -3.07 | 2.67 | -4.25 | 3.05 | -3.87 | 6.92 | 3.85 | -3.07 | 3.85 | -3.07 | 2.67 | -4.25 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.25 | 3.78 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 1.90 | 3.03 | 0.78 | 4.61 | 2.36 | 2.25 | 3.78 | 1.53 | 4.15 | 1.90 | 3.03 | 0.78 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 4.70 | 4.96 | 0.26 | 4.70 | 0.24 | 3.98 | -0.72 | 4.70 | 4.97 | 0.27 | 4.94 | 0.24 | 3.98 | -0.72 | ||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.50 | 3.59 | 0.09 | 3.50 | -0.07 | 3.86 | 0.36 | 6.24 | 2.74 | 3.50 | 3.59 | 0.09 | 3.43 | -0.07 | 3.86 | 0.36 |
Clayton Kershaw probably won’t sustain the perfect strand rate, but his .254 BABIP is not far below his .270 career rate.
Dylan Bundy has a 3.7 HR/FB that will not sustain.
Jakob Junis has a .170 BABIP and perfect strand rate.
Justin Verlander has a .211 BABIP, 95.5 LOB% and 8.8 HR/FB. Only his home run rate is near his career average and may not be sustainable, though home runs seem to be down this year around the league (11.8%).
Max Scherzer has a .218 BABIP and 6.5 HR/FB.
Noah Syndergaard should improve on his .326 BABIP, 69.3 LOB% and 18.2 HR/FB. It’s not often you see a guy with an ERA below three, who’s still a run above his estimators.
Sonny Gray has not allowed a HR yet, but neither his .409 BABIP nor his 60.5 LOB% will remain so far out of whack either.
Trevor Bauer is better than he’s been, but a firm “No” on the 84.1 LOB% and 4.3 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.280 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 33.3% | 90.9% | 35.8% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.285 | 0.435 | 0.150 | 29.2% | 37.5% | 18.8% | 79.5% | 38.7% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 0.278 | 0.333 | 0.055 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 91.3% | 47.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.295 | 0.379 | 0.084 | 40.3% | 24.2% | 13.6% | 84.1% | 47.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.301 | 0.254 | -0.047 | 43.9% | 24.2% | 14.3% | 86.1% | 40.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 0.288 | 0.444 | 0.156 | 47.1% | 35.3% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 44.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.273 | |||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.329 | 0.308 | -0.021 | 36.9% | 21.5% | 25.9% | 78.1% | 30.9% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.286 | 0.226 | -0.060 | 40.0% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 93.1% | 33.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.291 | 0.290 | -0.001 | 43.8% | 16.4% | 3.4% | 85.0% | 37.6% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.288 | 0.170 | -0.118 | 38.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 84.1% | 35.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.283 | |||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.279 | 0.333 | 0.054 | 51.6% | 20.3% | 5.6% | 94.3% | 40.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.283 | 0.385 | 0.102 | 39.4% | 31.8% | 15.8% | 86.3% | 40.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.285 | 0.211 | -0.074 | 26.7% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 78.3% | 35.3% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.301 | 0.361 | 0.060 | 47.8% | 17.9% | 4.3% | 89.4% | 33.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.286 | 0.264 | -0.022 | 42.9% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 90.8% | 28.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.261 | 0.263 | 0.002 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 70.0% | 39.4% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.310 | 0.228 | -0.082 | 35.1% | 15.8% | 21.4% | 84.0% | 44.4% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.301 | 0.250 | -0.051 | 33.3% | 15.7% | 23.1% | 83.7% | 46.4% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.264 | 0.000 | -0.264 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.9% | 39.6% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.284 | 0.218 | -0.066 | 39.3% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 69.9% | 34.6% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.301 | 0.279 | -0.022 | 39.5% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 82.4% | 40.0% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.320 | 0.200 | -0.120 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 15.4% | 79.8% | 47.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.280 | 0.326 | 0.046 | 54.2% | 22.9% | 9.1% | 80.7% | 27.3% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.284 | 0.359 | 0.075 | 51.2% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 82.7% | 37.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.314 | 0.409 | 0.095 | 60.5% | 16.3% | 10.0% | 89.4% | 34.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.248 | 0.259 | 0.011 | 37.7% | 18.9% | 17.4% | 92.1% | 31.0% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.305 | 0.300 | -0.005 | 41.2% | 23.5% | 16.7% | 85.3% | 36.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.306 | 0.296 | -0.010 | 54.5% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 88.6% | 23.0% |
Clayton Kershaw does not have his normally superior profile despite the low BABIP right now. The line drive rate has been surprisingly in addition to the home runs.
Dylan Bundy and Noah Syndergaard are the only two pitchers carrying elite Z-Contact plus Z-O-Swing rates.
Jakob Junis is a fly ball pitcher with a nice IFFB%, but he’s not maintaining a sub-.200 BABIP.
Justin Verlander has a career .285 BABIP, but has been below .275 each of the last three years as he’s become and extreme, extreme fly ball pitcher with a nice popup rate.
Max Scherzer generally has the standard ideal low BABIP profile. It’s different through four starts this year, but Good Lord that Z-Contact%.
Sean Necomb has nothing in his profile that suggests his BABIP should be out of line and this doesn’t even mention how many weak grounders he seems to be generating. The 2.4% Barrels/BBE below does a better job of illustrating that.
Trevor Bauer does have a chance to stick the .259 BABIP with this profile that includes a lot of infield flies and a 31.0 Z-O-Swing%. Notice the 92.1 Z-Contact% though. He’s generally been a bit better (88% career), but his strength is going to be that slider out of the zone.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.342 | 0.013 | |||||||||
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.371 | 0.006 | 0.343 | 0.014 | 0.371 | 0.006 | -0.3 | 87.6 | 6.3 | 35.4 | 48 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 0.420 | 0.041 | |||||||||
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.384 | 0.005 | 0.297 | -0.005 | 0.384 | 0.005 | -1.2 | 91.3 | 11.3 | 41.9 | 62 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.279 | -0.023 | 0.275 | -0.018 | 0.279 | -0.023 | -0.2 | 85 | 6.0 | 28.4 | 67 |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 0.297 | 0.018 | 0.399 | 0.004 | 0.297 | 0.018 | -1.4 | ||||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.322 | -0.007 | |||||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.302 | -0.042 | 0.313 | -0.025 | 0.302 | -0.042 | -1.3 | 87.9 | 9.1 | 33.3 | 66 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.402 | -0.066 | 0.402 | -0.012 | 0.402 | -0.066 | -0.2 | 89 | 13.6 | 36.4 | 66 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.348 | -0.026 | 0.354 | -0.010 | 0.348 | -0.026 | -1.4 | 90.7 | 11.0 | 39.7 | 73 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.324 | -0.074 | 0.332 | -0.019 | 0.324 | -0.074 | -0.9 | 87.7 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 50 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.291 | 0.029 | |||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.390 | 0.003 | 0.301 | -0.049 | 0.390 | 0.003 | -1.6 | 89.2 | 6.1 | 43.9 | 66 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.331 | 0.029 | 0.288 | 0.023 | 0.331 | 0.029 | 0.2 | 87.4 | 7.4 | 33.8 | 68 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.283 | -0.057 | 0.312 | -0.009 | 0.283 | -0.057 | -1.2 | 87.9 | 11.7 | 33.3 | 60 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.439 | 0.018 | 0.351 | -0.013 | 0.439 | 0.018 | 0.1 | 89.5 | 11.9 | 40.3 | 67 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.360 | -0.026 | 0.306 | -0.027 | 0.360 | -0.026 | -1.1 | 82.1 | 7.0 | 29.8 | 57 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.363 | -0.038 | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.363 | -0.038 | -0.7 | ||||
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.352 | -0.047 | 0.295 | -0.023 | 0.352 | -0.047 | 0.1 | 88.2 | 3.5 | 31.6 | 57 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.335 | -0.014 | 0.298 | 0.034 | 0.335 | -0.014 | -2.0 | 88.8 | 13.7 | 35.3 | 51 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | |||||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.231 | -0.042 | 0.251 | -0.017 | 0.231 | -0.042 | -0.8 | 86.9 | 7.0 | 36.8 | 57 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.408 | -0.056 | 0.305 | -0.003 | 0.408 | -0.056 | 0.5 | 85.8 | 11.1 | 35.6 | 45 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.348 | -0.057 | 0.262 | 0.017 | 0.348 | -0.057 | -1.1 | 90.4 | 9.5 | 42.9 | 42 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.251 | 0.010 | 0.311 | -0.044 | 0.251 | 0.010 | -0.4 | 85.6 | 6.3 | 22.9 | 48 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.284 | 0.033 | 0.340 | 0.012 | 0.284 | 0.033 | -0.7 | 87.4 | 2.4 | 29.3 | 41 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.338 | 0.002 | 0.316 | -0.038 | 0.338 | 0.002 | -0.4 | 90.7 | 4.5 | 40.9 | 44 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.302 | -0.036 | 0.316 | 0.023 | 0.302 | -0.036 | -0.7 | 87.5 | 3.6 | 36.4 | 55 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.376 | -0.057 | 0.422 | 0.020 | 0.376 | -0.057 | -0.2 | 87.7 | 7.8 | 39.2 | 51 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.300 | -0.004 | 0.353 | 0.021 | 0.300 | -0.004 | -1.4 | 86.6 | 3.6 | 39.3 | 56 |
Clayton Kershaw has allowed four home runs and a 24.2 LD%, but the quality of his contact otherwise has been very strong. It seems to be an all or nothing thing with him.
Jakob Junis has a concerning 10% Barrels/BBE, but a favorable 30% 95+ mph EV.
Justin Verlander will allow a few Barrels, the downside of having an extremely high fly ball rate, but he’s otherwise returned to dominance, as his xwOBA suggests.
Max Scherzer has a fantastic wOBA and a much better xwOBA.
Noah Syndergaard not only has allowed the fewest hard hit balls, but by a pretty massive margin on today’s board.
Trevor Bauer may not have anything remarkable in his Statcast numbers, but he’s done a nice job at limiting the hard contact so far after being one of the harder hit pitchers when contact was made last year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I could probably remove tiers tonight because this list just seems to flow seamlessly down the line. The guys at the top or bottom of one tier have been the source of much wavering this morning.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1t) is still magnificent and the matchup is not even that bad without Rendon. There aren’t many right-handed bats to be concerned with here and his 6.7 IP average over the last two years is tops on the board. He may not be in his own stratosphere anymore, but he’s still one of the top two to three arms in the game when healthy until proven otherwise.
Max Scherzer (1t) or Clayton Kershaw. Take your pick. Or try to fit both? Yes, find a lineup and try to do that just to be able to watch this game with even more interest.
Dylan Bundy (4t) is facing a team more dangerous than the early numbers suggest in a dangerous park, but he’s been pitching like a $10K+ pitcher and will be soon if he keeps it up. There may be enough risk to drop him to the second tier at his higher price point on FanDuel, but for just $8K on DraftKings he’s cheaper than a few pitchers whose upside he easily surpasses.
Value Tier Two
Justin Verlander (3) is in what should be a great spot. The White Sox do have some talent and I’m probably a bit more concerned with the home run potential here (he’s already allowed three). I’d be fine bumping him up if to a top tier arm if wind conditions favor him tonight. There’s a decent chance at another double digit strikeout performance.
Value Tier Three
Trevor Bauer (6) may not be as good as his ERA, but if he can maintain his strikeouts (which he should be able to) along with moderate control and keep some contact management gains, he may be better than his ERA with an ability to maintain a strong BABIP. That could make him a $10K pitcher. Right now, he’s probably a $9K pitcher in a dangerous spot, but it’s also a very high upside spot against a strikeout prone offense.
Noah Syndergaard (4t) is probably under-valued. The surface stats don’t do justice to how dominant he’s looked in most starts, one of which ended early due to a blister. The matchup is a bit of concern and I’m not sure if many players have accepted that this Atlanta offense is probably not going to be one pitchers can generate a lot of daily fantasy points against yet. They’re unlikely to be a lineup to attack very often, but he’s an elite arm.
Jakob Junis carries a moderate price tag at this point. He’s probably not as good as his ERA, but he might not be bad either. Like the hitters have their “Fly Ball Revolution”, the pitchers have their “Sliders Revolution” and he seems to be one of these guys. The thing that’s throwing me off is Detriot’s superior recent offensive output. He already has one great start on the board against them.
Sean Newcomb has really only hurt himself when his lack of control knocks him out of games early, but if he does put it together, the upside is tremendous. He’s a high upside, high risk GPP play. I’m wavering between third and fourth tier because he could walk the bases loaded and the Mets have right-handed power that could make him pay. He could be out of the game by the fifth. He can also induce double plays along with strikeouts. Anything really seems possible here. Scherzer/Kershaw is the top matching tonight, but Syndergaard/Newcomb may be the most intriguing.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Sonny Gray is far better than his ERA and probably his price tag around $8K. I’m just not sure if the Yankees have limited his pitch count due to performance or design though. His board is difficult to decipher. I’m very unsure, but believe he merits some consideration as a potentially under-valued arm tonight.
Andrew Heaney has looked formidable against a AAA team and then a major league AAA team. The step up in opponent quality isn’t that much towards the Giants and the cost is very low.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.