Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 28th
Let’s start with a word on Monday’s article, or the potential lack of one due to a very minor medical procedure I’ll be undergoing that morning. It’s hopeful that I’ll be able to at least put something shorter together Sunday night if all Probables are available early enough, but since I’d rather surprise than disappoint, let’s go with the assumption that it’s currently unlikely there will be an article Monday.
Heck of a difference between last night’s four game slate to the full 15 game one we get hammered with tonight to end a strange week full of occasionally frustrating activity. Of course, I’m talking about weather related delays and cancellations along with pitcher scratches and injuries. At least with scratches, you’re not actually using the pitcher that you only find out is injured after the game starts, which, yeah, that happened a couple of times too this week. I’m pretty sure more than half of my top pitchers were either scratched or injured this week, so if we like the same pitcher today, be very concerned.
It seems like the Baseball Savant Statcast issue has both Barrels columns showing Barrels/BBE stats. Daren is aware of the issue.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.8 | 4.43 | 5.36 | 38.9% | 0.94 | 4.67 | 4.86 | PIT | 67 | 92 | 104 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.5 | 4.53 | 5.37 | 34.6% | 1.09 | 5.89 | 3.24 | CLE | 127 | 98 | 121 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.9 | 4.25 | 5.95 | 42.8% | 1.02 | 4.75 | 3.42 | MIL | 97 | 93 | 109 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 5.9 | 4.76 | 4.79 | 37.4% | 1.03 | 4.31 | 5.08 | TOR | 68 | 91 | 103 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -13.7 | 3.12 | 6.2 | 49.3% | 1.09 | 3.58 | 3.88 | SEA | 97 | 117 | 147 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.2 | 4.33 | 5.83 | 47.2% | 1.01 | 3.99 | 4.27 | BAL | 110 | 77 | 91 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.6 | 3.88 | 5.39 | 56.7% | 0.94 | 3.73 | 3.82 | OAK | 79 | 101 | 81 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.7 | 4.47 | 5.31 | 38.6% | 1.02 | 4.65 | 3.46 | ATL | 83 | 90 | 75 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 1.6 | 3.75 | 5.45 | 44.7% | 1.13 | 3.42 | 3.01 | CHC | 108 | 130 | 119 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 14.6 | 3.97 | 5.89 | 35.5% | 1.06 | 4.7 | 3.83 | MIN | 107 | 105 | 114 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.4 | 3.21 | 6.28 | 46.1% | 1.01 | 3.46 | 2.56 | WAS | 120 | 116 | 131 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 12.7 | 3.29 | 6.63 | 53.8% | 1.13 | 3.74 | 2.77 | BOS | 96 | 96 | 58 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 6 | 3.69 | 5.87 | 52.9% | 0.94 | 3.43 | 4.44 | MIA | 95 | 94 | 77 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 1.3 | 4.09 | 6.47 | 42.7% | 0.93 | 3.63 | 3.1 | SDG | 77 | 81 | 89 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 12.2 | 3.92 | 6.07 | 40.2% | 0.89 | 4.2 | 3.31 | LOS | 123 | 111 | 81 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -10.6 | 4.55 | 5.78 | 36.4% | 0.94 | 4.13 | 6.21 | HOU | 110 | 125 | 124 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -11.6 | 3.71 | 5.39 | 42.1% | 0.89 | 3.9 | 3.96 | PHI | 78 | 99 | 118 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -11.1 | 3.89 | 5.85 | 44.3% | 1.01 | 3.84 | 5.41 | NYY | 137 | 123 | 92 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.3 | 4.25 | 5.3 | 66.2% | 1.13 | 5.97 | 4.06 | ARI | 134 | 80 | 150 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 16.2 | 4.29 | 5.9 | 51.4% | 1.06 | 4.94 | 5.08 | KAN | 74 | 68 | 43 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -18.8 | 4.09 | 5.68 | 46.0% | 0.98 | 4.06 | 3.21 | CIN | 114 | 95 | 106 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 5.1 | 4.02 | 5.78 | 59.5% | 0.93 | 3.7 | 4.25 | SFO | 69 | 81 | 65 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.6 | 3.57 | 6.5 | 60.2% | 1.03 | 3.48 | 3.55 | TAM | 91 | 112 | 107 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 1.6 | 4.6 | 4.91 | 36.3% | 0.98 | 4.97 | 5.16 | CHW | 65 | 130 | 109 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -8.2 | 2.82 | 6.81 | 0.342 | 1.01 | 2.92 | 3.07 | NYM | 110 | 72 | 49 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 1.1 | 4.9 | 5.28 | 0.505 | 0.98 | 5.3 | 6.27 | DET | 118 | 119 | 136 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | -2.4 | 5.09 | 5.44 | 0.452 | 1.11 | 5.3 | 4.59 | ANA | 59 | 89 | 85 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -11.2 | 3.77 | 5.51 | 0.449 | 1.13 | 3.5 | 3.19 | COL | 79 | 102 | 140 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 22.6 | 4.61 | 5.37 | 0.353 | 0.98 | 4.83 | 2.85 | STL | 89 | 98 | 136 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | -2.9 | 4.26 | 5.29 | 0.403 | 1.11 | 4.31 | 3.6 | TEX | 101 | 65 | 126 |
Carlos Carrasco is rocking the .194 BABIP and 95.7 LOB%, so he’s not this good, but it’s good to see him appear healthy. The ground ball rate is down a little, but the contact he is generating is generally very weak (85.6 mph aEV, -3.1 Hard-Soft%), which is a bit of a welcome change for him. Seattle has been uncharacteristic on offense so far. They’re not hitting for a lot of power, but they’re not striking out much and hardly at all over the last week.
Charlie Morton has an ERA, xFIP and SIERA all within a quarter of a run of his career rates. He hasn’t been any better, just different. Yet, that may be better for daily fantasy players. His velocity has remained up and you can really cherry pick his SwStr%. He’s not been below 9% in three of his four starts, but he’s also not been above 9% in three of four starts either (see if you can figure that one out). That 9% is a good number for him though. His strikeout rate is 3.3 points above his career rate, suddenly making him a rosterable pitcher. The issue has been in his contact. The extra heat is generating fewer ground balls (six points below his career average), but still nearly 50%. His hard hit rate has soared to 39.7%, though his Statcast numbers are not bad. The A’s have been hitting for more power, but also striking out more this year. He should be okay in this one.
Jacob deGrom was one of several Mets pitchers who’s had his last run through rotation disrupted by some manner or other. In his case it was a stiff neck. The response was six walks of Washington batters, but also 10 Ks. He’s struck out 23 of his last 54 batters and now leads the majors in SwStr% and has a total of 50 in his last two starts! His velocity, which was already up a bit this year, was up even further in his last start and his GB rate is even up over 50% for the first time in his career (always around league average – 45%). Washington has been a great offense this season, even if we have to discount the recent Coors boost a bit. They’re striking out at a below average rate, but have mostly done so facing the bottom of the NL East so far and deGrom has already shown he can bypass that particular early season trait against the Nationals.
Jake Arrieta is still down a bit velocity-wise, but did tick up a bit in his last start. Perhaps It’s actually helping him because he’s throwing more strikes (BB rate down more than four points). Be suspicious that his strikeout rate will remain this high with a SwStr% exactly the same as it was last season. The other thing is that his GB rate has plummeted (down over 10 points), though he’s increased both his hard and weak contact to the point that it seems a wash (literally a 0.0 Hard-Soft%). His 83.0 mph aEV is top 10 in the majors (min. 30 BBE) and third if you filter for 50 BBE. The Red Sox are tough to strike out in a dangerous home park, but they can be pitched to, as was proven last night.
Jameson Taillon has stranded 85.6% of his runners with a doubling of his walk rate, but that seems a bit fluky because his F-Strike% isn’t down much and his Zone% has actually increased five points, while batters are still chasing outside the zone at about the same rate. Concern is that his SwStr rate has been below 8% in three of four starts, though he’s faced two of the better AL East offenses this season so far. While GB rate has decreased throughout the league, his has increased. His 54.9% grounder rate sits just inside the top 15 among qualified starters. That should help him moving from one pitcher’s park to another against a Miami offense with a bit of power.
Jeff Samardzija has a higher LD% than Hard%. What that makes me think (and I don’t have any research) is that this is a launch angle problem. Four of his five HRs have come in Arizona and Colorado. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in each of his home starts against those two teams. The rest of it is not that bad. He’s had a SwStr rate above 9% in each start (double digits in three). The .358 BABIP and 58.9 LOB% appear to be the majority of his issues. His 19.3 K-BB% actually represents a career high. He has one of the top matchups on the board at home against the Padres tonight (26 K% vs RHP).
Kyle Gibson is still an incredibly frustrating pitcher with his double digit SwStr% and above average GB%. He just never turns these things into what you’d expect the peripherals to dictate. He’s facing the Royals tonight though. They may represent the top matchup on the board (16.0 K-BB%, 4.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Luis Perdomo returned from a shoulder issue to look very mediocre against the Marlins. He has some Gibson-like qualities in a SwStr% that might suggest a few more strikeouts, though he’s gotten pretty much what he deserved in two starts this year and a strong ground ball rate. However, his GB rate might actually be elite. Shoulder issues aren’t really something to mess around with, but the velocity looked fine in his return. Let’s not sugar coat it though, this is also about the matchup. The Giants still may not strike out much, but they have been awful. They have a 4.7 HR/FB and -1.4 Hard-Soft% at home. In this park, they rate on par with the Royals in terms of potentially one of the most favorable matchups of the day from a run prevention standpoint. He has thrown exactly 83 pitches in each of his two starts and the Padres may want to continue with caution here.
Robbie Ray has struck out at least six in each of his four starts, but has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in each of his home starts and is continuing to allow hard contact at a rate well above 40%. His 91.5 mph aEV is highest on the board and his walk rate is atrocious, but he’s still striking out batters at an elite clip, which obviously limits the damage most times. The Rockies are still a poor road offense, but have been more competent against LHP, though that’s more due to an unsustainable 21.1 HR/FB than an enormous 19.0 K-BB% vs southpaws this year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Jerad Eickhoff (.238 – 82.6% – 9.4) is one of several likely usable pitchers on a fairly deep board that may not be particularly enviable. While his increased strikeout rate and slightly improved peripherals begin to create a narrative that perhaps he tired down the stretch, throwing just under 200 innings last season, I’m not completely bought into his five point spike in strikeout rate with the same SwStr%. Maybe he’s a bit better than average and in one of the great pitcher’s parks tonight in LA, but the Dodgers might be the best offense in baseball against RHP.
Chase Anderson (.273 – 85.4% – 3.8) is missing more bats and has a top 15 aEV (min. 30 BBE). He’s not sustaining that strand rate and HR/FB. He’s probably fine against the Braves and usable as an SP2 on DraftKIngs for $1.5K less than FanDuel, but so are about half the arms on the board tonight.
Ian Kennedy (.200 – 86.8% – 5.9) has shown a bit of a control issue this year, while his hard contact rate has increased each of the last three years. Despite a SwStr above 11% in three of his four starts (4.2% in his last start), he’s struck out 10 of his 22 batters this year in one start. The Twins have been one of the better offenses in the league this year, playing strongly towards his weaknesses (walks, hard contact).
Lance Lynn (.210 – 78% – 13.0) appears somewhat in line with his career peripherals across the board, aside from the HR increase. He may be a bit lucky with the low walk rate considering he’s throwing first pitch strikes barely half the time (51.6%). The BABIP is saving him a bit and he still has major issues against LHBs, though perhaps not as concerning here as the Reds only have one really formidable one.
C.C. Sabathia (.229 – 84.7 – 13.0) is probably where I most disagree with the estimators today, but not enough to use him, though Baltimore’s performance against LHP (19.2 K-BB%) does make him more difficult to ignore. I wonder if someone will do a study on lower velocity guys severely under-performing their SwStr rates because I feel like we’re seeing a lot of that. Regardless, he’s throwing at the same speed he did last year with an additional point on his SwStr%, yet his K% down 5.4 points. The other thing is, although his aEV remains low (84.7 mph), his hard hit rate is back up over 30% this year (6.8 points higher than last year).
Blake Snell (.200 – 62% – 12.0) projects to strand more runners, so that should even out as the BABIP rises, but he’s actually allowed 14 runs, six of them unearned and has walked as many as he’s struck out this year.
Adam Conley (.216 – 81.4% – 9.1) is almost temptingly cheap on DraftKings ($2.1K less than FanDuel) against an offense that is just not all that or even much of that despite lining up predominantly from the RH side. He seems to be settling in as more of a back end of the rotation arm rather than a top guy some thought he might have the potential to be for a few months after he debuted. His weakness (walks) is Pittsburgh’s strength.
Matt Boyd (.304 – 76.1% – 4.8) had allowed 34 HRs in just over 150 major league innings coming into this year. This year, he has allowed one. His K-BB went from 12.9% to 3.7% this year and his hard contact rate is up to 42.1%. The White Sox can hit LHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Marcus Stroman was the only qualified pitcher to eclipse a 60% ground ball rate last year. This year, he’s been nearly as elite (57.8% = sixth). If you want to pay up for ground balls, he’s fine. He should even increase his strikeout rate against the Rays (24.7 K% vs RHP). I expect many people to like him today. However, he’s throwing his two-seamer over 60% of the time this year, appearing more concerned with grounders than strikeouts (15.7 K%, 7.8 SwStr%) and the Rays have been making a bit more contact recently (21.7 K% last seven days). I don’t think we necessarily gain much from paying $9.1K for ground balls today. Someone like Taillon might give you as much or more for less.
Tyler Skaggs does have the SwStr% to better support the same 22% strikeout rate he turned in last year, but is still walking batters at a rate (8.7%) that doesn’t allow him to be much more than an average arm. The Rangers have stunk against LHP in the early going (24.5 K%, 26.1 Hard%), but have been hitting the ball well lately and the park enhances that offense much more than they probably deserve.
Kenta Maeda crushes via SwStr%, but is being punished via hard contact and has not exceeded five innings or 83 pitches in a start. Still, it’s tempting against the Phillies (23.6 K% vs RHP) because you know he’s much better than his ERA. To reiterate, his SwStr% is tied with James Paxton, which is fifth best in the majors. The performance is less the issue than paying for 80% of a pitcher.
Drew Pomeranz struck out 10 Rays with a total of 10 Ks in his other two starts with a SwStr that seems unable to support his K% so far. He’s allowed quite a few Barrels and faces an offense that has potential to pummel LHP in a tough park.
Bartolo Colon will once and for all answer the question of what happens when the unmissable force meets the uncontactable object when he faces the Brewers. He never misses bats and they have trouble contacting baseballs. Something has to give. Of course, he could improve his strikeout rate in this game to something around 20% and get pummeled.
Jharel Cotton has induced some of the weakest contact in the league (84 mph aEV, 2.9% Barrels/BBE, 1.5 Hard-Soft%). That is where he’s succeeding and the 34.8 GB% might actually help him in Oakland too. Unfortunately, that’s where the positives end. He hasn’t been missing bats at anywhere near the rate he has in the minors and he’s having issues with walks. This is not due to an inability to throw strikes, mind you (64.3 F-Strike%, 53.5 Zone% – the latter leads the majors), but an inability to get batters to chase his stuff out of the zone (24.9 O-Swing% – ninth worse in baseball). He’s in a really tough spot tonight. The Astros don’t even strike out much anymore. This is where we step off the ride for a while.
Tim Adleman has allowed 16 HRs in 79.2 major league innings with a 35.3 Hard%. The enormous 14.1 SwStr% this year is through just 149 pitches with 57 of those coming out of the bullpen against the Brewers, though he did retain a 14% swinging strike rate in his lone start against the Cubs. If he does it again, we may be interested if we can get him in a bigger park because that 26.1 GB% is going to be flat out dangerous at home.
Ariel Miranda has allowed four HRs in two road starts and has been pretty terrible, in albeit just 29 innings, away from Safeco in his short career. Cleveland has been one of the most offensive friendly environments in baseball in recent years.
Kevin Gausman still has approximately a league average SwStr%, so that’s potentially good news, but what the hell happened here? He’s not even getting hit that hard (2.3 Hard-Soft%). He just can’t get anyone to chase anymore (26.4 O-Swing%). All the Aaron Judge against a reverse split pitcher?
Kyle Freeland doesn’t upgrade his environment nearly enough going from Colorado to Arizona. Throwing with his left hand should create additional issues, though the D-Backs have under-performed against southpaws this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.6% | Home | 20.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.2% | Road | 13.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 16.2% | 3.8% | Road | 12.3% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.9% | 13.4% | Road | 21.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.0% | Home | 22.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 11.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.1% | Home | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.8% | Home | 20.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.2% | Home | 19.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.8% | 9.3% | Home | 27.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 9.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.9% | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 9.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.7% | 5.8% | Road | 19.7% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 41.8% | 12.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.9% | 7.4% | Road | 21.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 2.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.2% | 5.2% | Road | 20.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 11.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.2% | Home | 22.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.7% | Road | 19.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.1% | Road | 20.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 11.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.9% | Home | 25.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.6% | Road | 23.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 11.3% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.6% | 10.4% | Road | 14.3% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.5% | 7.9% | Road | 15.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 9.2% | Home | 18.4% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.1% | Road | 18.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.1% | Home | 17.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 3.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.0% | Home | 19.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 11.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 5.2% | Home | 33.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 7.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.2% | 7.1% | Road | 9.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.9% | 8.8% | Home | 8.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 3.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.8% | 9.4% | Home | 26.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 12.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.2% | 6.8% | Road | 15.5% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 5.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.7% | 9.9% | Road | 21.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 7.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 18.2% | 6.5% | LH | 21.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.5% |
| Indians | Home | 22.5% | 11.6% | LH | 17.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 28.5% | 9.8% | RH | 25.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 26.8% | 6.5% | LH | 25.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 10.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 5.6% | LH | 25.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.8% | 8.3% | RH | 23.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.9% |
| Braves | Road | 20.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 10.5% | LH | 19.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Road | 17.9% | 10.9% | RH | 20.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 15.4% | 12.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 17.0% | 8.6% | RH | 18.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 11.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.3% | 8.0% | RH | 16.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 7.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 24.3% | 8.1% | RH | 21.3% | 5.6% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.2% |
| Padres | Road | 27.0% | 6.7% | RH | 26.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 31.4% | 5.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 11.3% | RH | 20.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.7% |
| Astros | Home | 19.0% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.5% | 7.6% | RH | 23.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.9% | 11.3% | RH | 21.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.9% | 8.5% | LH | 23.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.1% |
| Royals | Home | 22.3% | 7.8% | RH | 22.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.8% |
| Reds | Road | 17.6% | 8.4% | RH | 19.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 18.4% | 8.1% | RH | 18.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 7.5% |
| Rays | Road | 28.2% | 9.5% | RH | 24.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.9% | 4.7% | LH | 16.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Road | 21.6% | 10.6% | RH | 21.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.4% | 9.3% | RH | 22.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Road | 24.2% | 7.7% | RH | 21.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 7.6% | LH | 23.8% | 4.8% | L7Days | 15.3% | 7.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 10.4% | RH | 20.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.6% | 9.4% | LH | 24.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 10.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 2017 | 34.0% | 9.1% | 15.1% | Home | 33.5% | 6.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 5.6% | 11.6% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 35.2% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 2017 | 30.3% | 20.8% | 7.6% | Road | 32.3% | 15.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 18.2% | 15.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 2017 | 36.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | Road | 37.3% | 10.5% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 9.1% | -7.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 2017 | 31.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | Road | 31.3% | 6.4% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 44.8% | 22.2% | 24.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 2017 | 20.0% | 15.8% | -3.1% | Home | 37.7% | 20.5% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 11.1% | -11.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.8% | 14.3% | 5.9% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.0% | 8.2% | Home | 25.1% | 15.4% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 20.0% | 29.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 2017 | 39.7% | 5.6% | 22.0% | Home | 28.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 52.9% | 0.0% | 35.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 2017 | 31.3% | 3.8% | 11.9% | Home | 36.5% | 11.9% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 2017 | 31.7% | 17.6% | 9.7% | Home | 33.1% | 18.3% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 30.0% | 16.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.5% | 13.5% | 19.6% | 2017 | 38.8% | 5.9% | 20.9% | Home | 40.7% | 9.5% | 24.1% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 6.7% | 17.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 2017 | 30.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | Road | 33.1% | 13.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 48.0% | 22.2% | 32.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.0% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 2017 | 28.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% | Road | 28.3% | 14.3% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 5.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 2017 | 26.4% | 12.5% | 8.3% | Road | 31.5% | 17.5% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 29.4% | 8.7% | Home | 33.3% | 9.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 25.0% | -2.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 2017 | 31.8% | 9.4% | 19.7% | Road | 33.1% | 11.3% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 8.3% | 18.7% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2017 | 25.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | Road | 25.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 2017 | 29.5% | 22.6% | 16.4% | Home | 27.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 27.8% | 33.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.5% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 2017 | 26.4% | 13.3% | 2.3% | Road | 32.1% | 16.7% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 23.5% | 13.2% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 2017 | 30.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | Road | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 2017 | 30.2% | 26.3% | 11.1% | Road | 31.3% | 13.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 20.0% | 8.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.2% | 13.0% | 15.3% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.4% | 21.2% | 17.0% | 2017 | 24.2% | 14.3% | 12.1% | Road | 33.6% | 23.6% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.9% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 2017 | 33.0% | 5.9% | 13.2% | Home | 32.7% | 12.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 0.0% | 8.9% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 2017 | 42.1% | 4.8% | 21.0% | Home | 32.7% | 11.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 0.0% | 21.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 2017 | 14.3% | 6.5% | -7.9% | Home | 26.6% | 9.5% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 13.3% | -8.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2017 | 29.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% | Road | 27.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 2017 | 13.6% | 0.0% | -9.1% | Home | 32.9% | 24.0% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.5% | 12.2% | 21.2% | 2017 | 45.6% | 18.8% | 35.1% | Home | 39.0% | 15.9% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 28.6% | 35.7% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 35.3% | 14.5% | 22.7% | 2017 | 34.8% | 20.0% | 34.8% | Road | 36.0% | 10.6% | 23.4% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 20.0% | 34.8% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 31.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 2017 | 28.6% | 10.7% | 5.7% | Road | 30.6% | 11.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 28.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | LH | 27.5% | 12.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 12.0% | 6.1% |
| Indians | Home | 33.2% | 17.6% | 16.8% | LH | 38.3% | 11.5% | 21.2% | L7Days | 29.6% | 20.0% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 39.7% | 21.9% | 20.3% | RH | 33.7% | 20.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 39.1% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | LH | 32.6% | 10.2% | 17.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 14.5% | 9.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.2% | 9.7% | 10.7% | RH | 30.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 37.9% | 11.0% | 22.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 37.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% | LH | 32.7% | 10.0% | 16.9% | L7Days | 27.1% | 9.5% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 38.5% | 8.7% | 18.6% | RH | 34.6% | 13.8% | 17.6% | L7Days | 30.7% | 12.1% | 17.1% |
| Braves | Road | 28.8% | 11.8% | 9.7% | RH | 30.1% | 11.7% | 12.6% | L7Days | 29.3% | 10.9% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | LH | 28.2% | 15.9% | 0.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 12.9% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Road | 37.5% | 11.5% | 25.8% | RH | 34.3% | 10.7% | 18.7% | L7Days | 35.4% | 13.7% | 23.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.1% | 12.5% | 11.7% | RH | 29.5% | 13.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.1% | 16.0% | 12.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.2% | 5.3% | 18.5% | RH | 36.9% | 5.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.1% | -6.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 33.1% | 18.2% | 10.8% | RH | 31.0% | 15.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.8% | 15.2% | 2.0% |
| Padres | Road | 33.0% | 15.7% | 13.4% | RH | 30.4% | 17.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 36.4% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.0% | 14.1% | 22.2% | RH | 32.7% | 12.1% | 15.0% | L7Days | 31.2% | 10.2% | 15.3% |
| Astros | Home | 29.2% | 17.4% | 8.4% | RH | 33.3% | 15.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 36.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.3% | 12.9% | 6.8% | RH | 29.1% | 13.9% | 6.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 16.2% | 6.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.6% | 19.0% | 11.8% | RH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 25.4% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 17.6% | 24.7% | LH | 33.0% | 8.8% | 18.7% | L7Days | 37.5% | 22.4% | 22.9% |
| Royals | Home | 25.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% | RH | 27.8% | 12.2% | 4.9% | L7Days | 28.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 14.7% | 6.5% | RH | 29.1% | 11.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 34.0% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| Giants | Home | 21.0% | 4.7% | -1.4% | RH | 26.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.5% | -1.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.5% | 14.0% | 10.0% | RH | 33.8% | 15.5% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.6% | 10.4% | 6.6% | LH | 27.3% | 6.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Mets | Road | 34.5% | 16.2% | 18.2% | RH | 29.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 31.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.4% | 13.1% | 37.1% | RH | 43.9% | 13.0% | 28.3% | L7Days | 37.1% | 12.7% | 15.2% |
| Angels | Road | 28.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | RH | 27.0% | 11.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 32.4% | 11.0% | 8.8% | LH | 33.2% | 21.1% | 13.7% | L7Days | 34.0% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 25.3% | 9.5% | 5.3% | RH | 28.9% | 11.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 9.0% | 12.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.1% | 17.8% | 16.7% | LH | 26.1% | 9.4% | 5.1% | L7Days | 35.9% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 18.9% | 10.4% | 1.82 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 1.82 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 19.1% | 7.3% | 2.62 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 2.62 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 19.0% | 5.9% | 3.22 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 3.22 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.0% | 11.6% | 2.33 | 27.0% | 11.6% | 2.33 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 14.4% | 10.9% | 1.32 | 14.4% | 10.9% | 1.32 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 19.4% | 9.2% | 2.11 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 2.11 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.25 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.25 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 30.3% | 8.1% | 3.74 | 30.3% | 8.1% | 3.74 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.18 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.18 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 31.7% | 18.0% | 1.76 | 31.7% | 18.0% | 1.76 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 29.3% | 10.6% | 2.76 | 29.3% | 10.6% | 2.76 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 27.5% | 11.7% | 2.35 | 27.5% | 11.7% | 2.35 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 25.3% | 9.8% | 2.58 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 2.58 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.72 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 22.4% | 14.7% | 1.52 | 22.4% | 14.7% | 1.52 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 14.2% | 9.3% | 1.53 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 1.53 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.32 | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.32 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.3% | 10.2% | 1.40 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 1.40 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.18 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.18 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 15.7% | 7.8% | 2.01 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 2.01 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.1% | 8.1% | 2.11 | 17.1% | 8.1% | 2.11 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 31.4% | 15.9% | 1.97 | 31.4% | 15.9% | 1.97 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 5.0% | 11.1% | 0.45 | 5.0% | 11.1% | 0.45 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.53 | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.53 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 29.7% | 11.4% | 2.61 | 29.7% | 11.4% | 2.61 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 31.6% | 14.1% | 2.24 | 31.6% | 14.1% | 2.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 22.3% | 10.5% | 2.12 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 2.12 |
Drew Pomeranz has the only K% that you should be extremely skeptical of today and Bartolo Colon won’t remain near league average despite his actual proven talent for exceeding his SwStr%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 3 | 4.54 | 1.54 | 4.56 | 1.56 | 4.03 | 1.03 | 6.81 | 3.81 | 3 | 4.54 | 1.54 | 4.56 | 1.56 | 4.03 | 1.03 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.35 | 3.98 | -0.37 | 4.08 | -0.27 | 5.34 | 0.99 | 7.56 | 3.21 | 4.35 | 3.99 | -0.36 | 4.08 | -0.27 | 5.34 | 0.99 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 4.19 | -0.31 | 3.72 | -0.78 | 5.53 | 1.03 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 4.19 | -0.31 | 3.72 | -0.78 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.38 | 5.83 | 2.45 | 5.57 | 2.19 | 5.5 | 2.12 | 4.58 | 1.20 | 3.38 | 5.83 | 2.45 | 5.57 | 2.19 | 5.5 | 2.12 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 1.65 | 3.15 | 1.5 | 3 | 1.35 | 3.3 | 1.65 | 1.03 | -0.62 | 1.65 | 3.16 | 1.51 | 3 | 1.35 | 3.3 | 1.65 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 2.7 | 4.98 | 2.28 | 4.65 | 1.95 | 4.73 | 2.03 | 7.20 | 4.50 | 2.7 | 4.98 | 2.28 | 4.65 | 1.95 | 4.73 | 2.03 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.29 | 4.04 | -0.25 | 3.98 | -0.31 | 3.21 | -1.08 | 3.93 | -0.36 | 4.29 | 4.04 | -0.25 | 3.98 | -0.31 | 3.21 | -1.08 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 1.13 | 3.68 | 2.55 | 3.77 | 2.64 | 2.56 | 1.43 | 4.34 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 3.68 | 2.55 | 3.77 | 2.64 | 2.56 | 1.43 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.6 | 3.04 | -1.56 | 3.13 | -1.47 | 3.87 | -0.73 | 6.42 | 1.82 | 4.6 | 3.05 | -1.55 | 3.13 | -1.47 | 3.87 | -0.73 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 2.08 | 4.57 | 2.49 | 4.78 | 2.7 | 3.67 | 1.59 | 5.07 | 2.99 | 2.08 | 4.57 | 2.49 | 4.78 | 2.7 | 3.67 | 1.59 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.55 | 3.01 | 0.46 | 2.78 | 0.23 | 2.65 | 0.1 | 1.87 | -0.68 | 2.55 | 3.02 | 0.47 | 2.78 | 0.23 | 2.65 | 0.1 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.65 | 2.81 | -0.84 | 2.99 | -0.66 | 3.99 | 0.34 | 2.72 | -0.93 | 3.65 | 2.82 | -0.83 | 2.99 | -0.66 | 3.99 | 0.34 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 2.13 | 4.05 | 1.92 | 3.72 | 1.59 | 3.72 | 1.59 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 2.13 | 4.05 | 1.92 | 3.72 | 1.59 | 3.72 | 1.59 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 7.4 | 3.28 | -4.12 | 2.87 | -4.53 | 4.41 | -2.99 | 5.45 | -1.95 | 7.4 | 3.28 | -4.12 | 2.87 | -4.53 | 4.41 | -2.99 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.55 | 3.64 | 1.09 | 4.02 | 1.47 | 3.5 | 0.95 | 4.64 | 2.09 | 2.55 | 3.64 | 1.09 | 4.02 | 1.47 | 3.5 | 0.95 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 4.76 | 5.25 | 0.49 | 5.24 | 0.48 | 3.81 | -0.95 | 5.93 | 1.17 | 4.76 | 5.26 | 0.5 | 5.24 | 0.48 | 3.81 | -0.95 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 8.05 | 3.99 | -4.06 | 4.4 | -3.65 | 6.55 | -1.5 | 7.40 | -0.65 | 8.05 | 3.99 | -4.06 | 4.4 | -3.65 | 6.55 | -1.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.5 | 5.47 | -2.03 | 5.58 | -1.92 | 5.72 | -1.78 | 10.23 | 2.73 | 7.5 | 5.47 | -2.03 | 5.58 | -1.92 | 5.72 | -1.78 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.32 | 4.24 | 0.92 | 4.24 | 0.92 | 3.94 | 0.62 | 6.21 | 2.89 | 3.32 | 4.25 | 0.93 | 4.24 | 0.92 | 3.94 | 0.62 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 9 | 4.7 | -4.3 | 4.96 | -4.04 | 6.97 | -2.03 | 5.00 | -4.00 | 9 | 4.7 | -4.3 | 4.96 | -4.04 | 6.97 | -2.03 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 5.55 | 2.85 | 2.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 4.22 | 1.52 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 6.97 | 3.71 | -3.26 | 3.68 | -3.29 | 3.84 | -3.13 | 6.98 | 0.01 | 6.97 | 3.71 | -3.26 | 3.68 | -3.29 | 3.84 | -3.13 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.1 | 3.49 | 0.39 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 5.38 | 2.28 | 3.1 | 3.49 | 0.39 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3.86 | 5.26 | 1.4 | 5.06 | 1.2 | 3.94 | 0.08 | 8.47 | 4.61 | 3.86 | 5.27 | 1.41 | 5.06 | 1.2 | 3.94 | 0.08 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.95 | 2.96 | 1.01 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 2.5 | 0.55 | 1.07 | -0.88 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 1.01 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 2.5 | 0.55 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.15 | 6.25 | 2.1 | 6.89 | 2.74 | 6.9 | 2.75 | 2.71 | -1.44 | 4.15 | 6.27 | 2.12 | 6.89 | 2.74 | 6.9 | 2.75 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 1.29 | 4.59 | 3.3 | 4.39 | 3.1 | 2.54 | 1.25 | 6.04 | 4.75 | 1.29 | 4.59 | 3.3 | 4.39 | 3.1 | 2.54 | 1.25 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.42 | 3.79 | 0.37 | 3.31 | -0.11 | 3.86 | 0.44 | 2.37 | -1.05 | 3.42 | 3.79 | 0.37 | 3.31 | -0.11 | 3.86 | 0.44 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 2.7 | 2.85 | 0.15 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 5.37 | 2.67 | 4.16 | 1.46 | 2.7 | 2.85 | 0.15 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 5.37 | 2.67 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.44 | 4.05 | -0.39 | 4.18 | -0.26 | 3.92 | -0.52 | 4.14 | -0.30 | 4.44 | 4.05 | -0.39 | 4.18 | -0.26 | 3.92 | -0.52 |
When you still have a double digit DRA at the end of April, having made the full complement of starts, there may be a problem. A few other pitchers in his ERA range (Kenda Maeda, Jeff Samardzija) at least have factors that support much future improvement.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.260 | 0.216 | -0.044 | 38.0% | 0.18 | 18.2% | 88.0% | 84.9 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 53 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.304 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 43.8% | 0.188 | 16.7% | 89.8% | 88.2 | 9.10% | 9.10% | 66 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.280 | 0.261 | -0.019 | 37.7% | 0.174 | 16.1% | 91.8% | 85.8 | 6.90% | 6.90% | 72 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.272 | 0.200 | -0.072 | 41.0% | 0.18 | 16.0% | 84.3% | 84.8 | 4.80% | 4.80% | 63 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.329 | 0.194 | -0.135 | 46.9% | 0.234 | 15.8% | 89.9% | 85.6 | 7.70% | 7.70% | 65 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.264 | 0.229 | -0.035 | 41.4% | 0.257 | 8.7% | 84.5% | 84.7 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 73 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.275 | 0.353 | 0.078 | 49.3% | 0.239 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 86.8 | 4.40% | 4.40% | 68 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.273 | -0.032 | 38.7% | 0.194 | 11.5% | 86.2% | 83.5 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 67 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.289 | 0.289 | 0 | 29.3% | 0.293 | 17.6% | 89.4% | 89.6 | 14.60% | 14.60% | 41 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.285 | 0.200 | -0.085 | 38.8% | 0.104 | 8.8% | 81.1% | 90 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 67 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.301 | 0.316 | 0.015 | 52.5% | 0.169 | 5.6% | 70.2% | 86.9 | 3.40% | 3.40% | 59 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.268 | 0.254 | -0.014 | 42.2% | 0.188 | 12.0% | 78.8% | 83 | 6.30% | 6.30% | 64 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 54.9% | 0.225 | 6.3% | 88.9% | 88.1 | 6.90% | 6.90% | 72 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.293 | 0.359 | 0.066 | 40.3% | 0.343 | 11.8% | 79.7% | 87.7 | 8.70% | 8.70% | 69 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.268 | 0.238 | -0.03 | 40.9% | 0.106 | 3.1% | 87.9% | 90.1 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 66 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.262 | 0.286 | 0.024 | 34.8% | 0.246 | 14.3% | 84.3% | 84 | 1.40% | 1.40% | 71 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.283 | 0.315 | 0.032 | 27.6% | 0.19 | 3.2% | 81.4% | 88.1 | 9.80% | 9.80% | 61 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.291 | 0.361 | 0.07 | 43.5% | 0.212 | 16.7% | 81.4% | 86.6 | 8.00% | 8.00% | 87 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.298 | 0.304 | 0.006 | 66.2% | 0.162 | 16.7% | 91.6% | 84 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 70 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.265 | 0.362 | 0.097 | 49.2% | 0.206 | 5.3% | 87.7% | 87.7 | 9.50% | 9.50% | 63 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.308 | 0.210 | -0.098 | 49.2% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 81.3% | 87.8 | 4.60% | 4.60% | 65 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.277 | 0.313 | 0.036 | 66.7% | 0.121 | 14.3% | 92.2% | 89.9 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 33 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 57.8% | 0.233 | 5.9% | 87.4% | 88.6 | 6.60% | 6.60% | 91 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.314 | 0.304 | -0.01 | 41.1% | 0.214 | 14.3% | 85.0% | 86.8 | 7.00% | 7.00% | 57 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.285 | 0.213 | -0.072 | 33.9% | 0.161 | 12.9% | 77.7% | 87.3 | 4.80% | 4.80% | 63 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.251 | 0.188 | -0.063 | 29.4% | 0.235 | 12.5% | 82.1% | 87.7 | 5.90% | 5.90% | 17 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.272 | 0.182 | -0.09 | 50.0% | 0.136 | 12.5% | 84.0% | 84.9 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 22 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.302 | 0.296 | -0.006 | 48.2% | 0.232 | 12.5% | 86.7% | 91.5 | 7.00% | 7.00% | 57 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.279 | 0.150 | -0.129 | 26.1% | 0.087 | 0.0% | 77.8% | 91.2 | 13.60% | 13.60% | 22 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.04 | 34.8% | 0.246 | 7.1% | 86.2% | 87.8 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 70 |
My spreadsheet is shaded a bit different than it appears on the site here. I’m finding it odd how many guys are lining up with a lot of hard contact via Fangraphs Hard% metric that is contradicted by their average Exit Velocity. I’m not saying this is necessarily an error in either metric, as it is possible, just not what I’d normally expect to see.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This board is a fairly deep one along with a couple of elite arms at the top. There are pitchers I’ve elected to omit today, who would probably make this list on many other days, so don’t read too deep into it. Only about one-third of today’s pitchers really qualify as particularly poor choices.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) – I’ve never skipped over analyzing the top pitcher on the board before, but this was an easy spot to save words today. What can you possibly say? The Mets had been pretty terrible prior to losing Cespedes, but now he joins Duda on the DL. He struck out nine of these guys last time out and hasn’t struck out fewer than seven in any start, pitching into the seventh three times. He’ll probably throw a complete game with 12 strikeouts tonight.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon hasn’t shown all of the qualities that have made him a top prospect (he’s missing bats at a bit below a league average rate), but the ground ball rate has been borderline elite in a season where everyone is hitting more fly balls. He’s in a nice spot in a nice park and the cost just seems too low. He feels like more of a high floor than high ceiling guy though. There don’t seem to be many red flags in his profile.
Value Tier Three
Jacob deGrom (2) is the second costliest pitcher on DK, but just fourth on FD. There’s not much reservation about his neck issue. He did walk six last time out, but the massive amount of swings and misses stands out more. He’s facing a good offense though and I expect him to be scratched before I finish this article (kidding…I hope).
Charlie Morton is a league average pitcher in a decent spot at a low price. That should generate some DFS value, especially now that he can miss bats at about a league average rate.
Jake Arrieta (3) is essentially the opposite of deGrom cost-wise. The drop in velocity may have allowed him to regain his control. He’s still generating weak contact, just not as much of it on the ground. Despite the higher ERA, he may actually be better than he was last year (though his 2015 may be unreachable again).
Jeff Samardzija hasn’t been perfect at home against beatable offenses, but I really believe the majority of his problems stem from poor launch angles and trips to Colorado and Arizona this month. We should see higher quality work at home against the Padres tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Robbie Ray could generate double digit strikeouts with five runs in five innings. The Rockies still don’t travel well, but Arizona is basically the best they can hope for away from Coors.
Carlos Carrasco ends up this low, not because I don’t like his talent and ability, but rather the circumstances (park, opponent) and price as much.
Kyle Gibson is one pitcher you can consider in a cheap SP2 spot on DraftKings. We’re not looking to over-state the “stuff” again. That ship has long passed, at least as long as he remains in a Minnesota uniform. It’s the matchup that we really like.
Luis Perdomo is another low cost SP2 type in a great spot in San Francisco. He may be better than Gibson, but have stricter limits imposed on his workload right now.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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