Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, August 17th
Two of the top pitchers on Friday are taken off the board with the Mets and Phillies starting at 6pm ET a day after playing a double-header. Even without Syndergaard and Nola, there are still some arms on this board, but they would have been nice options to have if only to help spread out ownership rates. Some of the top remaining pitchers (including Scherzer) have some of the top matchups.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -8 | 3.62 | 6.3 | 50.2% | 0.99 | 3.01 | 5.05 | Mets | 107 | 99 | 152 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | -2.2 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 40.9% | 1.04 | 3.41 | 3.69 | Giants | 79 | 92 | 72 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 7.9 | 4.26 | 5.3 | 37.4% | 1.12 | 4.28 | 4.43 | Rays | 96 | 105 | 93 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 6.1 | 3.20 | 6.1 | 45.4% | 1.10 | 3.28 | 2.38 | Orioles | 79 | 94 | 123 |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | -4.7 | 4.31 | 63.2% | 1.04 | 10.13 | 4.31 | Reds | 98 | 95 | 89 | |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 3.55 | 5.9 | 50.7% | 0.95 | 3.68 | 3.92 | Athletics | 92 | 106 | 118 | |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 7.6 | 4.34 | 5.9 | 46.9% | 0.97 | 4.49 | 3.46 | Pirates | 99 | 97 | 80 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -0.8 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 33.5% | 1.00 | 4.79 | 5.56 | Nationals | 106 | 98 | 86 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -7.9 | 5.57 | 5.1 | 32.5% | 1.10 | 5.65 | 5.58 | Indians | 116 | 108 | 107 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 3.7 | 5.17 | 4.0 | 41.7% | 1.14 | 4.73 | 7.93 | Angels | 100 | 113 | 104 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.93 | 5.5 | 37.2% | 0.95 | 5.15 | 4.76 | Astros | 116 | 105 | 82 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.01 | 5.1 | 31.1% | 0.93 | 4.44 | 5.01 | Cardinals | 93 | 97 | 142 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.58 | 5.1 | 43.3% | 0.93 | 3.70 | 2.96 | Brewers | 94 | 93 | 104 | |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.1 | 4.23 | 5.8 | 41.0% | 0.96 | 4.69 | 2.20 | White Sox | 94 | 93 | 84 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -4.8 | 4.88 | 5.9 | 36.6% | 0.96 | 5.03 | 4.95 | Royals | 83 | 84 | 96 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | -4.7 | 3.80 | 4.9 | 47.1% | 0.91 | 3.81 | 2.76 | Diamondbacks | 88 | 101 | 92 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.70 | 5.7 | 51.3% | 0.99 | 4.73 | 3.68 | Braves | 98 | 113 | 138 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | -0.1 | 4.52 | 5.8 | 48.8% | 1.04 | 4.15 | 4.97 | Tigers | 74 | 77 | 105 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 7.4 | 4.70 | 5.5 | 46.4% | 1.03 | 4.56 | 2.73 | Blue Jays | 97 | 102 | 67 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 3.86 | 6.0 | 62.2% | 1.03 | 3.73 | 3.23 | Yankees | 121 | 108 | 96 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.63 | 5.4 | 35.1% | 1.04 | 4.66 | 5.49 | Twins | 102 | 84 | 104 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -3.7 | 2.90 | 6.6 | 35.7% | 1.00 | 3.11 | 2.58 | Marlins | 83 | 83 | 60 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -6.1 | 3.18 | 5.6 | 52.2% | 0.99 | 3.18 | 3.22 | Phillies | 98 | 93 | 92 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 3.5 | 5.38 | 5.5 | 38.2% | 1.14 | 6.16 | Rangers | 107 | 97 | 112 | |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.2 | 3.62 | 5.5 | 40.0% | 0.91 | 3.32 | 3.88 | Padres | 90 | 91 | 73 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | -0.6 | 3.43 | 1.5 | 33.7% | 1.12 | 4.65 | 1.56 | Red Sox | 120 | 118 | 133 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 2.7 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 44.9% | 0.99 | 4.65 | 4.88 | Rockies | 83 | 97 | 60 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | -0.1 | 4.76 | 5.4 | 44.4% | 0.97 | 4.56 | 5.32 | Cubs | 99 | 103 | 70 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -1.6 | 4.03 | 5.5 | 39.8% | 0.91 | 4.09 | 4.17 | Dodgers | 102 | 88 | 88 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -4.9 | 3.45 | 5.7 | 52.1% | 0.91 | 3.75 | 3.63 | Mariners | 98 | 102 | 89 |
Carlos Carrasco has a board high 17.1 SwStr% over the last month with a 33.1 K%. He’s struck out at least eight and recorded a seventh inning out in all five starts. Four of those have been on the road and four have been against the inferior offenses of the AL Central. It’s not like the Orioles (16.3 K-BB% vs RHP) are any better, though they do have a 123 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB over the last week and have actually improved since trading away their top bats. Cleveland is one of the more positive run environments in baseball and he does have the fourth highest aEV (89.4 mph) on the board.
Charlie Morton is incredibly inconsistent. Consider that he’s struck out at least eight in six of his last 11 starts, but no more than five in each of the other five. He still has a 30.2 K% for the season with GPP winning upside and has allowed more than three runs in just one of those 11 starts, more than two in just four (one of those against Oakland though in just 4.1 innings). The A’s are a dangerous offense and they hit the ball hard (26.3 Hard-Soft% at home, 24% vs RHP, 38.9% over the last seven days), but it’s still a negative run environment and his 30.7% 95+ mph aEV is fifth lowest on the board to go with a 49.4 GB%.
Jack Flaherty completed seven innings for just the third time this year. Heck, it was just the third time he’d recorded an out in that inning. He also has the highest strikeout rate on the board over the last month (36%). Along with all those strikeouts, he’s also been a quality contact manager. His 85.9 mph aEV is third best on the slate tonight. Once you remove pitchers off the board or with only a few starts, his .283 xwOBA is actually only behind Scherzer tonight. The Brewers have a dangerous lineup with a lot of power (15+ HR/FB on the road and vs RHP) and St Louis is not as power suppressing when it gets really hot, though that doesn’t appear to be the case tonight. It’s a negative run environment and the Brewers have a 25.3 K% vs RHP. Just two of his last eight starts have come at home.
Jakob Junis has struck out 16 of his last 44 batters and has not allowed a HR in two starts (two runs). While I don’t buy into his strikeout rate spike (9.7 SwStr%) he’s still slightly above league average for the year and in a great spot, both for run prevention and upside (White Sox 19.6 K-BB% at home, 19.2% vs RHP, and 24.8% last seven days). Among regular starters, his 9.4% Barrels/BBE is one of the highest marks on the board.
James Shields has a league average SwStr%, while both his strikeout rate and SwStr% have moved upwards over the last month. He’s failed to complete six innings just three times since April, once by just a single out. He’s recorded a seventh inning out in more than half of his starts. He’s not exactly preventing runs, but the White Sox would rather just have the innings at this point. The Royals have just a 20 K% vs RHP, but also an 84 wRC+ and 9.2 HR/FB.
Joey Lucchesi has been able to turn a slightly below league average SwStr% into a 25.1 K%. I’d have trouble believing anything higher than that. The 88.6 mph aEV is not ideal, but he’s been a solid arm in one of just two extremely negative run environments on the board. The downside is that the Arizona offense is dangerous (14.8 HR/FB, 26.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) and have done some damage against this lefty in three starts (14.2 IP – 11 ER – 4 HR – 8 BB – 12 K – 66 BF), but there are still a few strikeouts here (23.8% vs LHP).
Lance Lynn has done the following in three outings for the Yankees: 16.2 IP – 12 H – 1 R – 0 HR – 4 BB – 22 BF – 64 BF. Three of those walks did come in his last start against the Rangers and he had previously faced the White Sox and Orioles, but the uptick in strikeouts is interesting…though it does not include an increase in SwStr%. It still may be borderline supportable though. The thing I expected and do see since joining the Yankees is a reduced reliance on his four-seam and sinker. Lynn doesn’t have a slider and still isn’t throwing a ton of curves (10.8% this month), but it’s the cutter usage that’s increased by around 50%, up to 18.3% since the trade. This is a feature of the Yankee pitching staff. They throw fewer fastballs than almost any other team and it seems to be something that’s working for Lynn too, though four-seamers and sinkers still make up 70% of his offerings this month. It was more than 75% in July. The Blue Jays are a marginal matchup, but they are a bottom six or seven performing offense against Cutters (-6.6).
Marcus Stroman has made 10 starts since returning from the DL. He’s allowed two runs or less in seven of them. The strikeout rate is still a reduced 17.5% over this span, but the really interesting thing is that along with a 65.4 GB%, he has a -0.6 Hard-Soft%! Even at his best, Stroman was a hard ground ball generator with a league average strikeout rate. While I’ll almost always lean towards strikeouts, especially from a daily fantasy perspective, I’m not even sure this is a poor tradeoff considering the depth of the improvement in contact management. I can’t immediately see much of a difference in his arsenal. He’s still generating the same number of grounders, just much weaker contact. The Yankees are dangerous, but still missing middle of the order bats.
Max Scherzer is facing the Marlins. It’s only a question of price.
Robbie Ray (much like Matt Boyd below) kills me no matter what I decide to do with him. Unlike Boyd however, I can’t even pretend to ignore his 30.7 K% against the Padres (15.9 K-BB% vs LHP) in one of only two extremely negative run environments on the board. Now for the frustrating aspects of this matchup. He’s completed six innings in just one of his last eight starts, over which he has a 10.9 BB% and lower 27.2 K%, but it’s still good enough here. He has a 40.5% hard hit rate over this span, which is actually lower than his 42.7% rate on the season. His Statcast exit velocities are, unsurprisingly, some of the worst on the board and the Padres do have some power against LHP (14.6 HR/FB).
Sean Newcomb is more contact manager (86.6 mph aEV, 4.4% Barrels/BBE) than high strikeout arm (21.9 K%, 9.5 SwStr%). That’s fine, though you never know what you’re going to get from him from start to start and that’s not a great thing when the strikeout upside is not even that high. Catching the Rockies outside Coors is still enviable, though they’re more potent against LHP (21.5 K%, 17 HR/FB). However, he really has no platoon split and is even just slightly better against RHBs, which could serve him well here.
Wade LeBlanc is still here in August after 19 starts with a 19.6 K%, 4.20 SIERA, and .336 xwOBA, all respectable numbers. Over the last month, he has a 24.4 K%, 3.76 SIERA, and .316 xwOBA, all better than average numbers. He pitches in one of two extremely negative run environments on the board and though the Dodgers are one of few NL lineups that can fully support the addition of a DH. They just seem to have above average hitters just lying around, but they’ve continued to struggle against LHP (see their most recent series against the Giants) despite the addition of quality right-handed bats at the deadline.
Walker Buehler is still struggling to support his strikeout rate with something of a league average strikeout rate, but it has increased over the last month and he’s always missed bats in the minors. Good news is he’s completed seven innings and exceeded 100 pitches in two of his last three starts and has had six days since his last start. The Mariners have just a 19.9 K% vs RHP, but are an otherwise average offense in one of the most negative run environments (if not the most negative) on the board.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Trevor Williams (.264 – 7.3 – 8.9) is one of the top contact managers on the board, but doesn’t miss enough bats and is facing a well-disciplined lineup.
Kyle Freeland (.275 – 82.4% – 9.9) struck out 10 Dodgers in his last start and has gone seven innings in each of his last two, but had not struck out more than five in 10 straight starts prior to his most recent. The Braves have a 19.2 K% vs LHP, along with a 15.8 HR/FB and 113 wRC+.
Edwin Jackson (.224 – 80% – 8.3) has not allowed an earned run in three starts, but here you see why. He hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact (86.9 mph aEV), but his BABIP profile is actually pretty terrible. The Astros are not at full strength, but are still not an offense against which he has a lot of upside.
Dan Straily (.264 – 74.7% – 15.7 – 11.1% unearned run rate) is well below the BABIP of his defense, but it’s exactly his career rate (.264). He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, who does get a decent amount of popups, but his 26.9 LD% is a full six points above his previous career high. He should struggle with a difficult Washington lineup with a park downgrade.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Boyd seems to shut down every time I buy into him. He did allow just one run in six innings to these Twins last time out, but has struck out just seven of his last 44 batters and allowed four runs to the Angels in his previous start. A league average strikeout rate and one of the top contact managers on the board (86.3 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE), he’s actually on my list tonight, but I’m just not telling him. The Twins have just an 84 wRC+ and 8.2 HR/FB vs LHP, though you wouldn’t know it from the beating they laid on an inferior lefty last night. I realize that whatever I do with him is going to be wrong, so I figure why ruin it for the rest of you too?
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 15 HRs in 12 starts, 11 at home, though he hasn’t allowed one in two starts (14 IP – 1 ER) and is in a favorable spot at home against the Giants (15.5 K-BB% vs RHP). He also has a 26.7 K% over the last month, but with just a league average SwStr%. I don’t hate him for the cost and am close to considering him a fourth tier guy under the right conditions. If he lands in your SP2 spot by necessity, fine, but he’s not someone I’m reaching for.
Kyle Gibson just threw seven one-run innings at the Tigers, but struck out just four. I’d expect something similar again because while Detroit has just a 74 wRC+ on the road and 77 wRC+ vs RHP with around an 8.5 HR/FB in each situation, it’s not an offense that strikes out a ton (22.2% vs RHP, 10.0 K-BB% last seven days). He’s probably fine, but seems adequately priced.
Cole Hamels could be fine if he just throws a ton of 90 mph fastballs at the Pirates like Jon Lester did on his way to striking out eight of them last night. In 18 innings for the Cubs, he’s allowed just three runs with 20 strikeouts against four walks and no HRs. They’ve seen the best of Hamels, though he did strike out just two in the middle start. He did strike out nine Pirates in his Cubs’ debut, but the Pirates generally aren’t that strike out prone and he allows some of the hardest contact on the slate, along with occasional walk issues, resulting in a .348 xwOBA that’s fourth worst on the board among those with more than just a few starts. He has upside, but paying nearly $9K for him usually blows up more often than not and I’ve done well over the last several years to either severely limit exposure or avoid him altogether.
Freddy Peralta still maintains a 31.5 K%, but with just an 11.4 SwStr%. Over his last seven starts, he has a 6.42 ERA, 4.88 FIP and 5.39 xFIP with a 15.9 BB%. It is the first time the Cardinals have seen him, but I’m sure they know what to expect from him at this point. The 80% fastball usage is no longer fooling as many people despite the great extension he gets to increase his perceived velocity. He’s not Bartolo Colon either. If you look at his pitch map, those fastballs appear to be all over the place without any specific concentration on or just off the edges of the strike zone.
Brian Johnson last started nine days ago and has allowed five HRs over his last two starts. He did strike out 11 Yankees in one of those and six Blue Jays in the other, his two highest totals of the season. The Rays have been competent against LHP and Fenway is a tough park.
Ryne Stanek and whatever the Rays decide to do at Fenway.
Casey Kelly had an 11.9 K-BB% in 23 AAA starts this season, a career 6.6 K-BB% in 68.1 major league innings, half of which came in 2012.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 5.1% | Season | 24.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.0% | Home | 28.7% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 2.1% | L14Days | 13.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | -7.5% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 22.0% | Season | 21.5% | 6.6% | 19.5% | 28.0% | Home | 25.7% | 7.1% | 25.0% | 28.4% | L14Days | 22.0% | 2.0% | ||
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 10.9% | Season | 22.2% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | Home | 22.6% | 6.6% | 11.5% | 11.0% | L14Days | 21.2% | 9.1% | 20.0% | |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 28.3% | 5.1% | 12.7% | 16.9% | Season | 28.1% | 4.9% | 12.9% | 24.2% | Home | 27.6% | 5.5% | 16.5% | 15.5% | L14Days | 31.5% | 1.9% | 10.0% | 22.8% |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | L2 Yrs | 12.5% | 8.3% | 15.7% | Season | 12.5% | 8.3% | 15.7% | Road | 28.6% | 40.0% | L14Days | 12.5% | 8.3% | 15.7% | |||||
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.2% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 7.1% | Season | 30.2% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 9.7% | Road | 27.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | L14Days | 24.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 24.6% | Season | 23.5% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 28.3% | Road | 20.2% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 20.3% | L14Days | 22.5% | 4.1% | 31.5% | |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 19.9% | Season | 20.1% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 30.5% | Road | 20.4% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 18.2% | L14Days | 27.9% | 20.9% | 30.0% | |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 11.0% | Season | 14.0% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 11.0% | Road | 16.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 12.5% | L14Days | 16.7% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 13.3% |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 20.9% | Season | 15.6% | 14.8% | 21.9% | 23.9% | Home | 19.1% | 14.3% | 37.5% | 32.1% | L14Days | 4.9% | 17.1% | 23.1% | 21.9% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 13.9% | Season | 19.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | Home | 19.9% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 9.9% | L14Days | 18.0% | 8.0% | 21.6% | |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 31.5% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 25.0% | Season | 31.5% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 25.0% | Road | 30.3% | 16.2% | 6.5% | 29.7% | L14Days | 25.6% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 13.2% | Season | 30.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | Home | 27.4% | 7.5% | 17.3% | 8.5% | L14Days | 34.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 11.6% | |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 6.4% | 15.2% | 22.1% | Season | 22.1% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 24.1% | Road | 19.0% | 6.1% | 14.9% | 19.7% | L14Days | 36.4% | 4.6% | 8.3% | |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 15.7% | Season | 18.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 17.8% | Home | 19.1% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% | L14Days | 18.2% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 8.4% | 18.4% | 19.5% | Season | 25.1% | 8.4% | 18.4% | 19.5% | Home | 23.7% | 9.5% | 22.9% | 14.4% | L14Days | 33.3% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 15.4% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 8.7% | Season | 19.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Road | 15.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.3% | L14Days | 27.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 20.1% | Season | 22.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 20.2% | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | 18.4% | 22.9% | L14Days | 13.5% | 9.6% | 20.0% | 27.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 11.0% | Season | 22.9% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 15.6% | Home | 20.6% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% | L14Days | 36.2% | 8.5% | -11.5% | |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 7.7% | 15.6% | 10.6% | Season | 17.8% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 11.8% | Road | 18.7% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 13.1% | L14Days | 13.3% | 8.9% | -14.3% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 14.8% | Season | 21.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 16.5% | Road | 21.0% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 13.4% | L14Days | 15.9% | 4.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.8% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | Season | 34.6% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | Home | 35.0% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 5.7% | L14Days | 33.3% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 26.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 0.4% | Season | 24.9% | 4.7% | 8.3% | -4.3% | Road | 21.6% | 3.5% | 7.0% | -3.0% | L14Days | 22.0% | 5.1% | -7.4% | |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | L2 Yrs | 13.7% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | Season | 19.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 9.4% | Road | 14.5% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | L14Days | ||||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 31.9% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 24.2% | Season | 30.7% | 11.9% | 17.8% | 28.6% | Road | 34.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 19.1% | L14Days | 31.8% | 13.6% | 21.8% | |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | L2 Yrs | 31.7% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 28.3% | Season | 32.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 22.0% | Road | 24.6% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 21.5% | L14Days | 45.8% | 4.2% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.8% | Season | 21.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 13.6% | Home | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 15.3% | L14Days | 16.0% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 34.2% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | Season | 16.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | Home | 17.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | L14Days | 10.2% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 5.3% | 12.6% | 12.3% | Season | 19.6% | 5.2% | 11.3% | 13.7% | Home | 20.4% | 4.8% | 15.0% | 12.5% | L14Days | 22.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 14.0% | Season | 26.0% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 15.5% | Road | 25.3% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14Days | 28.6% | 10.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 21.1% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 19.6% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 16.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 24.4% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 18.4% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 18.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 19.6% |
| Rays | Road | 22.8% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 16.0% | LH | 23.6% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 17.5% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 13.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.4% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 14.8% | RH | 23.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 13.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 24.9% | RH | 21.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 20.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 34.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 26.3% | RH | 21.8% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 24.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 38.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.7% | LH | 22.2% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 14.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 18.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% | RH | 20.1% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 23.6% |
| Indians | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 26.4% | RH | 19.4% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 25.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 21.3% |
| Angels | Road | 19.7% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 17.2% | RH | 20.3% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 20.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.0% | 13.8% | 23.5% |
| Astros | Road | 19.7% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 21.1% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 15.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.9% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 24.5% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 20.9% | L7Days | 14.4% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 28.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.2% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 13.5% | RH | 25.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 17.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.6% | 13.5% | 17.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.5% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 6.2% | RH | 25.8% | 6.6% | 13.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.9% | 4.1% | 16.4% | 21.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.8% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 15.8% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 21.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 24.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 18.2% | LH | 23.1% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 26.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 21.6% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 20.7% | LH | 19.2% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 21.1% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.7% | 16.0% | 27.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 12.6% | RH | 22.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 18.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 25.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 17.3% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 15.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.8% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 20.8% | RH | 22.5% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 18.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 11.7% |
| Twins | Home | 22.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 22.0% | LH | 23.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 27.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.0% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 13.1% | RH | 22.5% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.5% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 8.1% | RH | 25.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.3% | 10.2% | 15.7% | 23.7% | RH | 25.1% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 21.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 11.8% |
| Padres | Home | 25.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 18.3% | LH | 24.0% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 16.0% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.3% | 13.5% | -3.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.8% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 16.2% | RH | 18.7% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 19.3% | L7Days | 17.0% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.7% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 17.4% | LH | 21.5% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 16.6% | L7Days | 32.3% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 25.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 16.1% | RH | 20.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 20.1% | LH | 22.6% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 20.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 9.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 8.2% | RH | 19.9% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 15.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 24.6% | 11.5% | 2.14 | 17.5% | 11.3% | 1.55 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.5% | 8.3% | 2.59 | 26.7% | 9.9% | 2.70 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 22.2% | 9.1% | 2.44 | 28.0% | 10.8% | 2.59 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 28.1% | 14.3% | 1.97 | 33.1% | 17.1% | 1.94 |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.09 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.09 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 30.2% | 12.7% | 2.38 | 25.5% | 12.0% | 2.13 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 23.5% | 12.3% | 1.91 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 2.14 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 20.1% | 10.2% | 1.97 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 2.14 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 14.0% | 8.4% | 1.67 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 2.05 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 15.6% | 8.0% | 1.95 | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.81 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.18 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 31.5% | 11.4% | 2.76 | 26.7% | 9.1% | 2.93 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 30.2% | 12.9% | 2.34 | 36.0% | 14.4% | 2.50 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.35 | 26.8% | 9.7% | 2.76 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 18.2% | 10.5% | 1.73 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 1.81 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 25.1% | 9.7% | 2.59 | 27.0% | 9.7% | 2.78 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.29 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.64 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.94 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 1.71 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 22.9% | 10.3% | 2.22 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 2.62 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.93 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 1.89 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 21.5% | 9.9% | 2.17 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.36 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.6% | 16.5% | 2.10 | 34.6% | 15.9% | 2.18 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 24.9% | 14.5% | 1.72 | 19.1% | 14.5% | 1.32 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 19.8% | 13.5% | 1.47 | |||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 30.7% | 12.8% | 2.40 | 24.4% | 11.7% | 2.09 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 32.3% | 15.1% | 2.14 | 32.1% | 14.5% | 2.21 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 21.9% | 9.5% | 2.31 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 11.2% | 5.1% | 2.20 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.11 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.37 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 26.0% | 9.5% | 2.74 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 2.64 |
Just during the posting process, I’m seeing there are no notes here and there really isn’t much to point out, unless you like Freddy Peralta. A few other guys are borderline, mostly over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.28 | 3.63 | 1.35 | 2.28 | 1.14 | 2.81 | 0.53 | 2.51 | 0.23 | 2.16 | 4.60 | 2.44 | 4.38 | 2.22 | 3.84 | 1.68 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 4.46 | 4.13 | -0.33 | 4.46 | -0.31 | 5.17 | 0.71 | 5.12 | 0.66 | 2.78 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 3.37 | 0.59 | 3.42 | 0.64 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 3.95 | 4.04 | 0.09 | 3.95 | 0.28 | 4.23 | 0.28 | 5.42 | 1.47 | 3.42 | 3.54 | 0.12 | 3.55 | 0.13 | 4.55 | 1.13 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 3.50 | 3.13 | -0.37 | 3.50 | -0.39 | 3.14 | -0.36 | 3.60 | 0.10 | 1.60 | 2.36 | 0.76 | 2.22 | 0.62 | 2.21 | 0.61 |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | 1.42 | 4.31 | 2.89 | 1.42 | 3.04 | 3.16 | 1.74 | 2.00 | 0.58 | 1.42 | 4.31 | 2.89 | 4.46 | 3.04 | 3.16 | 1.74 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.88 | 3.38 | 0.50 | 2.88 | 0.33 | 3.44 | 0.56 | 3.36 | 0.48 | 2.52 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 3.66 | 1.14 | 4.04 | 1.52 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 4.22 | 3.96 | -0.26 | 4.22 | -0.23 | 4.75 | 0.53 | 5.98 | 1.76 | 3.52 | 3.38 | -0.14 | 3.3 | -0.22 | 3.29 | -0.23 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.42 | 4.97 | 0.55 | 4.42 | 0.54 | 5.40 | 0.98 | 5.20 | 0.78 | 4.78 | 5.05 | 0.27 | 5.19 | 0.41 | 5.29 | 0.51 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 6.25 | 5.57 | -0.68 | 6.25 | -0.16 | 6.41 | 0.16 | 8.50 | 2.25 | 7.20 | 5.43 | -1.77 | 6.49 | -0.71 | 7.26 | 0.06 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 6.07 | 5.62 | -0.45 | 6.07 | -0.43 | 6.93 | 0.86 | 6.63 | 0.56 | 9.72 | 7.93 | -1.79 | 7.77 | -1.95 | 9.88 | 0.16 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.48 | 4.58 | 2.10 | 2.48 | 1.98 | 3.84 | 1.36 | 4.75 | 2.27 | 2.40 | 4.46 | 2.06 | 4.32 | 1.92 | 3.86 | 1.46 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 4.47 | 4.01 | -0.46 | 4.47 | -0.18 | 3.66 | -0.81 | 5.10 | 0.63 | 8.05 | 4.98 | -3.07 | 5.64 | -2.41 | 5.53 | -2.52 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.22 | 3.36 | 0.14 | 3.22 | 0.19 | 3.89 | 0.67 | 2.68 | -0.54 | 3.18 | 3.08 | -0.10 | 3.14 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 1.04 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.82 | 4.04 | -0.78 | 4.82 | -0.52 | 5.06 | 0.24 | 6.16 | 1.34 | 3.55 | 3.40 | -0.15 | 3.19 | -0.36 | 3.24 | -0.31 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.41 | 4.87 | 0.46 | 4.41 | 0.61 | 4.75 | 0.34 | 4.01 | -0.40 | 4.35 | 4.34 | -0.01 | 4.56 | 0.21 | 5.74 | 1.39 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 3.45 | 3.79 | 0.34 | 3.45 | 0.21 | 4.30 | 0.85 | 3.85 | 0.40 | 3.80 | 3.40 | -0.40 | 3.36 | -0.44 | 4.33 | 0.53 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.02 | 4.42 | 1.40 | 3.02 | 1.29 | 3.95 | 0.93 | 3.98 | 0.96 | 2.67 | 4.44 | 1.77 | 4.41 | 1.74 | 3.42 | 0.75 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.49 | 4.17 | 0.68 | 3.49 | 0.42 | 3.86 | 0.37 | 3.86 | 0.37 | 3.73 | 4.44 | 0.71 | 4.17 | 0.44 | 4.05 | 0.32 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 4.46 | 4.48 | 0.02 | 4.46 | -0.26 | 4.23 | -0.23 | 5.84 | 1.38 | 1.95 | 3.73 | 1.78 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 3.16 | 1.21 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 5.03 | 3.94 | -1.09 | 5.03 | -1.29 | 3.79 | -1.24 | 3.89 | -1.14 | 3.23 | 3.46 | 0.23 | 3.46 | 0.23 | 2.60 | -0.63 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.20 | 4.39 | 0.19 | 4.20 | 0.48 | 3.92 | -0.28 | 5.49 | 1.29 | 2.37 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 4.15 | 1.78 | 2.73 | 0.36 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.19 | 2.70 | 0.51 | 2.19 | 0.83 | 2.63 | 0.44 | 2.22 | 0.03 | 1.32 | 2.51 | 1.19 | 2.44 | 1.12 | 1.89 | 0.57 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.22 | 3.29 | 0.07 | 3.22 | -0.13 | 2.66 | -0.56 | 2.29 | -0.93 | 3.91 | 3.55 | -0.36 | 3.45 | -0.46 | 2.72 | -1.19 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 5.31 | 4.19 | -1.12 | 5.31 | -1.22 | 3.36 | -1.95 | 4.24 | -1.07 | |||||||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 4.83 | 3.75 | -1.08 | 4.83 | -1.05 | 4.42 | -0.41 | 3.61 | -1.22 | 4.50 | 4.21 | -0.29 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 4.05 | -0.45 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 2.42 | 3.32 | 0.90 | 2.42 | 1.36 | 3.45 | 1.03 | 2.96 | 0.54 | 3.29 | 3.32 | 0.03 | 3.91 | 0.62 | 5.43 | 2.14 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 3.40 | 4.59 | 1.19 | 3.40 | 0.96 | 4.15 | 0.75 | 3.53 | 0.13 | 2.92 | 4.45 | 1.53 | 4.35 | 1.43 | 4.13 | 1.21 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 3.66 | 4.95 | 1.29 | 3.66 | 1.19 | 4.27 | 0.61 | 4.95 | 1.29 | 0.75 | 5.38 | 4.63 | 5.12 | 4.37 | 3.53 | 2.78 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 3.80 | 4.20 | 0.40 | 3.80 | 0.54 | 4.12 | 0.32 | 3.67 | -0.13 | 4.34 | 3.74 | -0.60 | 3.77 | -0.57 | 3.30 | -1.04 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 3.32 | 3.34 | 0.02 | 3.32 | -0.03 | 3.36 | 0.04 | 3.40 | 0.08 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 0.25 | 3.3 | 0.30 | 4.16 | 1.16 |
Jakob Junis has a 17.7 HR/FB, which, well, he allows a ton of hard contact in the air. It might be even worse outside Kansas City, though 16 of his 26 HRs have actually come at home. He is in a much more power friendly park tonight, but that’s really the only concern.
James Shields doesn’t have anything in his profile that stands out, but he does allow a majority of his contact in the air.
Marcus Stroman still needs to shake off some early season numbers and as you can see from his Statcast line, he still has a 40.1% 95+ mph EV, but considering just his 10 starts back from the DL, everything is fine and in line.
Max Scherzer has a .252 BABIP, 84.1 LOB% and 9.8 HR/FB. The strand rate might be a bit high, but considering the elite BABIP profile, extreme fly ball rate and sheer number of strikeouts, I’m really fine with most of it and wouldn’t expect much regression.
Sean Newcomb has a .259 BABIP, but is not even that far below his defense and is a quality contact manager. I don’t see nearly as much regression as his estimators suggest.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.297 | 0.257 | -0.040 | 50.6% | 19.1% | 13.3% | 83.6% | 32.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.297 | 0.264 | -0.033 | 38.0% | 21.9% | 6.5% | 89.2% | 36.8% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.311 | 0.020 | 38.1% | 22.0% | 9.2% | 91.7% | 31.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.293 | 0.317 | 0.024 | 44.3% | 21.3% | 8.1% | 87.1% | 29.5% |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | 0.296 | 0.211 | -0.085 | 63.2% | 10.5% | 20.0% | 87.5% | 36.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.282 | 0.286 | 0.004 | 49.4% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 81.7% | 33.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.010 | 44.4% | 23.7% | 10.0% | 85.2% | 34.9% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.295 | 0.264 | -0.031 | 33.8% | 26.9% | 12.0% | 87.3% | 39.6% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.316 | 0.274 | -0.042 | 32.5% | 18.0% | 10.1% | 88.7% | 44.6% |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.300 | 0.291 | -0.009 | 45.1% | 19.8% | 6.3% | 91.4% | 39.2% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.224 | -0.051 | 37.3% | 23.5% | 11.7% | 91.9% | 44.6% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.278 | 0.244 | -0.034 | 31.1% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 82.0% | 39.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.262 | -0.024 | 42.2% | 21.7% | 13.6% | 82.6% | 36.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.310 | 0.292 | -0.018 | 41.7% | 19.5% | 8.8% | 90.9% | 30.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.259 | -0.031 | 35.3% | 21.2% | 9.7% | 86.7% | 37.5% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.305 | 0.281 | -0.024 | 47.1% | 21.0% | 9.2% | 86.1% | 35.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 48.3% | 18.0% | 9.2% | 88.0% | 36.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.308 | 0.278 | -0.030 | 47.7% | 22.0% | 11.4% | 88.6% | 34.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.289 | 0.321 | 0.032 | 50.1% | 22.7% | 10.9% | 84.9% | 43.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.318 | 0.009 | 63.4% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 89.6% | 34.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.292 | 0.256 | -0.036 | 31.5% | 21.9% | 10.6% | 85.6% | 37.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.289 | 0.252 | -0.037 | 36.3% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 77.9% | 34.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.302 | 0.337 | 0.035 | 49.1% | 24.4% | 6.9% | 86.4% | 32.2% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 0.290 | 0.333 | 0.043 | 39.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 85.6% | 39.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.331 | 0.048 | 36.1% | 24.0% | 12.3% | 84.6% | 34.1% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.276 | 0.231 | -0.045 | 33.0% | 14.7% | 15.8% | 79.8% | 40.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.281 | 0.259 | -0.022 | 45.7% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 84.2% | 39.6% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 40.1% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 91.2% | 37.3% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.298 | 0.272 | -0.026 | 37.5% | 20.3% | 7.3% | 85.3% | 29.8% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.286 | 0.276 | -0.010 | 50.5% | 18.3% | 5.9% | 87.1% | 38.1% |
Lance Lynn looks out of range for the Yankees, but look just above at the BABIP allowed for the Twins. He gains 19 points just by switching uniforms.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.268 | -0.022 | 0.259 | 0.002 | 0.281 | -0.026 | 0.300 | 85.7 | 3.9 | 31.100 | 409 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.318 | 0.008 | 0.294 | 0.045 | 0.302 | 0.016 | 0.500 | 87.8 | 6.6 | 34.000 | 197 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.327 | -0.005 | 0.341 | -0.026 | 0.331 | -0.023 | -0.400 | 88.6 | 6.8 | 36.800 | 220 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.297 | -0.003 | 0.322 | 0.009 | 0.256 | 0.012 | -0.100 | 89.4 | 6.6 | 37.500 | 363 |
| Casey Kelly | Giants | 0.240 | -0.136 | 0.240 | -0.136 | -1.500 | ||||||
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.290 | -0.001 | 0.303 | -0.001 | 0.304 | 0.022 | -0.800 | 87.3 | 5.8 | 30.700 | 329 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.348 | -0.017 | 0.335 | -0.039 | 0.306 | -0.030 | -0.200 | 88.6 | 7.7 | 36.600 | 377 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.371 | -0.035 | 0.337 | -0.003 | 0.332 | 0.028 | -0.400 | 88.4 | 7.8 | 39.000 | 282 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.361 | 0.006 | 0.367 | 0.013 | 0.372 | 0.002 | -1.400 | 88 | 10.0 | 39.500 | 200 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.395 | 0.003 | 0.431 | 0.001 | 0.455 | 0.013 | -1.300 | 89.6 | 9.7 | 38.700 | 93 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.328 | -0.062 | 0.333 | -0.010 | 0.350 | -0.073 | -0.300 | 86.9 | 7.0 | 33.800 | 157 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.309 | -0.025 | 0.332 | -0.015 | 0.350 | 0.013 | 1.500 | 87.1 | 6.5 | 37.100 | 124 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.283 | 0.002 | 0.290 | 0.004 | 0.269 | 0.006 | 1.000 | 85.9 | 6.0 | 33.500 | 248 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.343 | -0.003 | 0.346 | -0.008 | 0.311 | 0.016 | -0.800 | 88.7 | 9.4 | 36.600 | 382 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.353 | -0.040 | 0.334 | -0.030 | 0.347 | -0.012 | 0.700 | 88.2 | 7.9 | 36.900 | 483 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.326 | -0.017 | 0.341 | -0.016 | 0.312 | 0.018 | 0.000 | 88.6 | 7.1 | 37.800 | 241 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.314 | -0.017 | 0.334 | -0.005 | 0.309 | -0.014 | 0.500 | 85.8 | 5.8 | 29.600 | 432 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.322 | -0.026 | 0.356 | -0.007 | 0.330 | -0.021 | 0.800 | 86.9 | 6.1 | 35.500 | 411 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.326 | 0.003 | 0.322 | -0.028 | 0.272 | -0.008 | -0.100 | 87.8 | 5.3 | 38.100 | 339 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.330 | -0.013 | 0.330 | 0.001 | 0.293 | -0.002 | -1.100 | 88.6 | 6.5 | 40.100 | 307 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.291 | -0.004 | 0.319 | 0.031 | 0.254 | -0.013 | -0.700 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 29.600 | 368 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.262 | -0.016 | 0.249 | 0.010 | 0.244 | -0.029 | -0.700 | 86 | 7.3 | 32.700 | 382 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.273 | 0.019 | 0.279 | -0.010 | 0.272 | 0.022 | 0.100 | 85.6 | 2.5 | 27.900 | 276 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 0.362 | -0.044 | 0.372 | -0.029 | -1.000 | 87.9 | 4.7 | 35.900 | 64 | ||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.327 | 0.010 | 0.268 | -0.015 | 0.318 | 0.004 | -0.300 | 89.5 | 9.2 | 39.500 | 185 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.292 | -0.041 | 0.322 | -0.030 | 0.265 | 0.042 | -1.100 | 89.9 | 10.4 | 39.600 | 106 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.307 | -0.015 | 0.330 | -0.013 | 0.335 | -0.039 | -1.300 | 86.6 | 4.4 | 31.300 | 361 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.338 | -0.037 | 0.328 | -0.029 | 0.289 | -0.025 | 0.800 | 85.6 | 6.7 | 30.400 | 388 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.336 | -0.036 | 0.328 | -0.037 | 0.316 | -0.008 | -0.300 | 87.1 | 8.9 | 35.700 | 359 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.283 | -0.009 | 0.295 | 0.007 | 0.299 | 0.003 | -0.300 | 88.3 | 5.9 | 31.500 | 219 |
Jack Flaherty has the lowest aEV among the six pitchers above a 30 K% tonight.
Walker Buehler is tied with Flaherty for really the lowest xwOBA behind Scherzer tonight. While his 88.3 mph aEV is not nearly as low, his 31.5% 95+ mph EV is sixth lowest on the board. This is not a combination you see very often.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
You’ll see that I have several pitchers tied as the second best overall arm behind Scherzer tonight and what that means is that despite a potentially wide range of outcomes, I feel that any of them could emerge as the second best arm tonight. The obvious separator is cost.
Value Tier One
Robbie Ray (2t) has been striking out fewer batters in fewer innings. I’m going to roster a few San Diego bats against him. Considering the contact quality he allows, it would be silly not to. That doesn’t mean he’s still not a great value with a slightly lower strikeout rate in a great park and still a high upside matchup for around $8K.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman isn’t missing as many bats and that could impact his daily fantasy upside and he’s in a dangerous spot, but he’s really just dominating contact and is much too cheap on DraftKings ($5.7K).
Max Scherzer (1) is the most expensive pitcher on the board on either site by more than $1K, but he still seems a bit underpriced for less than $13K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Walker Buehler (2t) is not in a very high upside spot, but it’s a great park. If he’s going to be a seven inning, 100 pitch guy now, he’s probably underpriced.
Wade LeBlanc just will not go away. He’s actually improved his performance over the last month and is still quite cheap in perhaps the top park on the board (or at least one of the two most negative run environments). The Dodgers are still probably much better than their numbers against LHP, but they haven’t been. Even if they are, he still may have some value in this park at this price.
Jack Flaherty (2t) doesn’t always get as deep into games as we’d like to see, but has thrown 13 innings over his last two. The Brewers are a dangerous offense, but one with a few strikeouts. There is upside here and he has the lowest aEV among the highest strikeout arms with a negative run environment behind him.
Charlie Morton (2t) isn’t in an easy spot, but it is a negative run environment and he does generally keep the ball on the ground without allowing too much hard contact. A price tag around $10K is probably too low for the potential upside, but he’s very hit or miss in the strike out category.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Carrasco (2t) has the highest SwStr% over the last month, at least eight strikeouts with more than six innings in each of his last five starts and is facing the Orioles. He does so in a tough park at a high cost with one of the highest exit velocities on the board, while Baltimore has somehow been a tougher offense in August (117 wRC+ and 23 HRs this month are both fifth best in the majors).
Lance Lynn is reasonably priced and has cut down on walks, while increasing strikeouts with the Yankees. Now, he’s faced some inferior offenses since the trade, but there does seem to be an expected alteration in process. I trust the Yankees to get more from him and this isn’t a terrible spot.
Joey Lucchesi has had his issues with a dangerous Arizona lineup, but he’s been an above average pitcher, who can miss a few bats in a great park at a decent price.
Jakob Junis can be cause for concern in a power friendly park, but for a cost around $6K you get a league average strikeout rate from a pitcher who’s been better lately in a matchup with quite a bit of upside.
Sean Newcomb is probably fine for not much more than $7K at home against the Rockies. Actually, let me rephrase that. Sometimes he’s fine and even quite good, but he might also torpedo your lineup. He may be worth the risk at this price.
James Shields will pile up innings at a reasonably low price and that has some value here against an offense that can’t score runs, even if they will make contact.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.