Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, August 24th
Much like Tuesday’s full slate, Friday’s is majorly lacking in star power on the mound. It seems all the top pitchers went early on Thursday’s slate. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any usable arms…I hope. I’m gonna be honest though. This is not looking very promising at the onset, but I haven’t done anything other than look at names at this point, so let’s go find some daily fantasy pitching for tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | 7.6 | 3.95 | 30.0% | 1.01 | Reds | 95 | 94 | 114 | |||
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -7.9 | 4.51 | 5.9 | 49.2% | 1.04 | 4.03 | 4.01 | Yankees | 98 | 109 | 118 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.5 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 40.3% | 0.92 | 3.51 | 3.97 | Astros | 115 | 123 | 115 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.58 | 5.6 | 49.0% | 1.35 | 4.47 | 6.40 | Cardinals | 104 | 96 | 83 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.1 | 4.62 | 5.6 | 54.8% | 1.04 | 4.23 | 3.73 | Indians | 99 | 107 | 91 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 7.4 | 4.32 | 5.6 | 48.7% | 1.04 | 4.44 | 2.74 | Orioles | 99 | 75 | 39 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -4.7 | 4.26 | 6.0 | 58.8% | 0.90 | 4.39 | 3.12 | Dodgers | 105 | 91 | 118 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.85 | 6.3 | 59.1% | 0.92 | 3.46 | 4.11 | Angels | 109 | 86 | 97 | |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -0.8 | 4.65 | 5.4 | 33.5% | 0.90 | 4.80 | 5.43 | Braves | 105 | 96 | 89 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -4.7 | 4.10 | 6.1 | 40.4% | 0.91 | 3.77 | 4.39 | Rangers | 85 | 97 | 73 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 3.7 | 4.93 | 4.3 | 41.8% | 0.91 | 6.09 | 5.16 | Giants | 102 | 88 | 33 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | -1.6 | 4.34 | 5.2 | 44.8% | 1.00 | 4.57 | 5.08 | Diamondbacks | 97 | 89 | 136 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.44 | 5.8 | 47.3% | 0.91 | 4.45 | 5.65 | Mets | 80 | 79 | 75 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 7.9 | 4.53 | 4.3 | 48.4% | 0.94 | 4.75 | 5.94 | Rays | 106 | 99 | 107 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | -0.6 | 3.87 | 1.6 | 43.6% | 0.94 | 2.97 | 5.35 | Red Sox | 109 | 117 | 93 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -8 | 4.23 | 5.7 | 49.1% | 1.01 | 4.12 | 3.69 | Blue Jays | 102 | 104 | 129 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | -0.1 | 4.60 | 5.1 | 30.5% | 1.04 | 4.60 | 2.85 | Athletics | 119 | 108 | 132 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -6.1 | 4.82 | 5.1 | 39.5% | 0.91 | 4.84 | 5.27 | Nationals | 89 | 95 | 111 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -0.1 | 4.14 | 5.6 | 46.0% | 1.04 | 3.98 | 2.95 | Brewers | 97 | 94 | 114 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | -2.2 | 4.89 | 5.1 | 42.8% | 1.01 | 4.86 | 3.65 | Cubs | 108 | 103 | 89 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.43 | 6.2 | 47.4% | 1.02 | 4.24 | White Sox | 91 | 95 | 131 | |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 6.1 | 4.11 | 5.6 | 39.4% | 1.04 | 4.38 | 5.06 | Royals | 83 | 85 | 64 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.7 | 4.10 | 5.6 | 40.7% | 0.90 | 4.45 | 3.15 | Marlins | 80 | 84 | 114 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 4.01 | 6.3 | 50.4% | 1.35 | 3.93 | 3.69 | Rockies | 84 | 77 | 91 | |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -4.8 | 5.26 | 5.6 | 34.0% | 1.02 | 5.89 | 4.29 | Tigers | 90 | 79 | 107 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -4.9 | 3.65 | 5.4 | 36.7% | 0.90 | 4.11 | 4.29 | Padres | 78 | 92 | 83 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 5.08 | 5.2 | 48.1% | 1.01 | 4.05 | 7.28 | Phillies | 84 | 88 | 75 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.37 | 5.7 | 44.8% | 1.04 | 4.51 | 4.27 | Twins | 103 | 85 | 108 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.78 | 5.0 | 50.1% | 1.04 | 4.77 | 4.43 | Pirates | 95 | 96 | 64 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.2 | 3.90 | 5.8 | 53.2% | 1.00 | 3.52 | 3.66 | Mariners | 103 | 102 | 87 |
Andrew Heaney struggled in his last start at Texas. Understandable. He pitched into the eighth inning in his previous start in San Diego too, but had allowed nine runs in 11 innings to Tampa Bay and Detroit prior to that. The good news is that his estimators are almost exactly what they are for the season over the last month and that’s below four. His 86.5 mph aEV is fifth best on the board. The Angels are far from an ideal matchup. They’re the top offense in baseball against LHP (123 wRC+) with just a 19.7 K% and are nearing full health. Even in an extremely negative run environment, this is a difficult matchup.
C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters. His .305 xwOBA is sixth best on the board and he has the lowest aEV (84.9 mph). This is our guy in Baltimore, right? Not so fast. He’s missed two weeks with a knee issue and the Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.313 wOBA, 13 HRs vs Sabathia this season). That’s not a particularly good right-handed lineup and batters from that side have been just league average against him, but the O’s have just a 21.9 K% vs LHP, despite a 75 wRC+. They’re one of the coldest offenses in baseball over the last week (39 wRC+, 18.1 K-BB%, 6.9 HR/FB).
Dallas Keuchel was popped for five runs in Oakland last time out with just a 27.3 GB% and has just a 16 K% over the last month, while facing an offense with just a 20.8 K% vs LHP, despite their 86 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s still gone at least seven innings in five of his last nine starts, has the third best ground ball rate on the board (53.8%) and the seventh best xwOBA (.309). Most importantly, the Angels are absent their two legitimate right-handed bats.
Gio Gonzalez threw seven innings of one run ball against the Braves last time out. He’s since allowed 13 runs over 8.2 innings against the Cardinals and Marlins with seven walks and strikeouts each. He has a 2.4 K-BB% over his last 13 starts, but the Mets are terrible against LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%) as well as at home (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB).
Jason Vargas has struck out just four of his last 45 batters, but has also allowed just four runs over his last 11.1 innings. He has a 7.67 ERA with a 5.99 FIP, but his 10.5 SwStr% is tied for fifth best on the board and his 85.5 mph aEV is third best. The Nationals have a deep and balanced lineup, but just haven’t ben able to put together the results this year.
Joe Musgrove has gone at least seven innings in eight of his 14 starts. The strikeout rate has been up and down, but he has set down 13 of his last 53 batters on strikes and has a ground ball rate above 50% in four of his last five starts. His 86.6 mph aEV is sixth best on the board, which gives him the best xwOBA on the board at .291. There’s some combination of things here that makes him a useful pitcher in a matchup with some upside (Brewers 25 K% at home and vs RHP). Realize that this is also a very dangerous matchup too (Brewers 16+ HR/FB at home and vs RHP). It’s a park downgrade against a powerful lineup that has added even more power over the last month.
Mike Foltynewicz has allowed one run over 15 innings, striking out 16 of his last 54 batters. The SwStr% is still questionable, but even adjusted, he’s still a top three strikeout rate on this board in a great matchup (Marlins 80 wRC+ at home, 84 wRC+ vs RHP) in a great park.
Rich Hill has walked at least four in two of his last three starts, but none in Colorado in between. He has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (though with just a 9.1 SwStr%) and is actually closer to the bottom of the board than the top with a .343 xwOBA, though it’s been better over the last month (.303) and he’s in a great matchup (Padres 24 K% vs LHP) in a great park. The Padres do have a bit more power against LHP and while his heavy curveball usage has given him a reverse split in the past, that hasn’t been the case this year (RHBs .324 wOBA, 12 HRs).
Zack Godley is tied for fourth on the board with a 23.8 K%, but leads the slate with an 11.9 SwStr% with both of those marks increasing over the last month. Not all of his starts have been pretty. In fact, he got spanked by the Padres in his last outing despite striking out seven of 27 batters. He does have at least six strikeouts in seven straight starts (but more than seven just once) and generally keeps the ball on the ground (50.9%). The matchup is not ideal against an offense with a 20.2 K% vs RHP, but they do lose the DH, which probably means their top hitter in Cruz. He had pitched into the seventh inning in three straight starts prior to his last one.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Derek Rodriguez (.251 – 78.1% – 5.3) has gone seven innings in three straight starts and gets the Rangers with their 24.8 K% vs RHP minus a DH in one of the most power suppressing run environments in baseball. However, he has missed two weeks with a hamstring issue. His board leading 2.6% Barrels/BBE is a bit of a fluke considering the 88.5 mph aEV and 40.4 GB%. He does have the third best xwOBA on the board (.300) with just a 20.3 K%. He’s certainly over-priced tonight.
Mike Clevinger (.302 – 78.5% – 8.9) is in a great run prevention spot, but has a marginally above average strikeout rate, which is actually the third highest rate on this board. The Royals have just a 20.2 K% vs RHP, but with a 9.5 HR/FB against them as well in a power suppressing park, he should be able to continue suppressing his own HR rate. It’s still not really a $10K profile though.
Jake Arrieta (.278 – 67.7% – 10.4 – 25.4 unearned run rate) has a league average strikeout rate over the last month, but with just a 7.6 SwStr%. He’s been a solid, but not spectacular contact manager (.313 xwOBA, 86.9 mph aEV, 52.9 GB%), who is difficult to justify more than $8K for in an unfavorable matchup in an AL East park.
Sean Manaea (.247 – 74.9% – 12.7) has a 16.9 K% and gets a park downgrade, though the Twins have an 85 wRC+, 23.6 K% and 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP.
Wade Miley (_.239 – 79.2% – 8.6 – 26.7% unearned run rate) has been a great contact manager thus far (50 GB%, 86.4 mph aEV), but with just a 15.5 K% and not in a very high upside spot.
Hector Velazquez (.307 – 86.8% – 9.5) reached 73 pitches in his fifth spot start of the season, only his second time above 50 pitches since April. He has just a 13.7 K% in 65.2 innings mostly out of the pen. I would not expect it to improve in the rotation.
Brad Keller (.298 – 76.9% – 6.6) does keep the ball on the ground (54.8 GB% is second best on the board), but he doesn’t limit hard contact (88.2 mph aEV) or miss bats (16.1 K%) and has to deal with a tough Cleveland lineup in a positive run environment.
Miles Mikolas (.265 – 76.4% – 9.2) is a great contact manager, but with a low strikeout rate and perhaps not an ideal fit for Coors.
Ryan Borucki (.331 – 64.4% – 3.4 – 19.4% unearned run rate) is all over the place with unsustainable numbers in both directions, but they’ve ultimately led to an ERA below his SIERA and xFIP, but well above his FIP. He’s allowed 14 runs over his last 9.2 innings with just three strikeouts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Clayton Richard is the highest valued pitcher on my board by the numbers presented here today. I will tell you the reasons why are entirely in the chart above because all the ones below throw major red flags at him. The Dodgers are certainly better than a 91 wRC+ vs LHP since the trade deadline. It’s one of the most negative run environments in baseball and he has averaged six innings over the last two calendar years. He threw eight innings at the Angels two starts back with a 65.4 GB%. He struck out just two in that start and it was the only time he’s exceeded five innings in his last six starts. He has a total of 13 strikeouts over that span. He is really cheap, but the Dodgers can stack that lineup with tough right-handed outs.
Alex Cobb has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts, most recently with a complete game effort in Cleveland. He’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts. The ground ball rate is up to 50.3% and he has just a .298 xwOBA over the last month. All of that said, he still has just a 15.3 K% over that span, same as his season mark (though SwStr% is up slightly). So, he’s managing contact better, but still well below average in terms of strikeouts. I don’t really trust him in this tough matchup with the Yankees, despite their injury issues. It’s much closer than you would have thought a month ago though.
Dan Straily is in a great park against an offense without much power, but they don’t strike out often (20.3% vs RHP) and he allows an awful lot of hard contact (multiple HRs in three of his last five starts) and has even allowed more HRs at home (10) than on the road (9). He’s also walked at least three in 12 of 20 starts, failing to exceed five innings in almost half of them (45%).
Jake Odorizzi has the fourth highest strikeout rate on the board (23.8%), but just a 7.3 SwStr% over the last month, in which he’s surpassed five innings just once. He also has the A’s tonight, in perhaps the worst park adjusted matchup outside Coors.
Michael Fulmer has faced 19 A+ ball batters in two rehab starts this month. He hasn’t pitched in the majors in over a month and is likely to be limited.
Erasmo Ramirez has the worst Statcast numbers on the board through four starts.
Hunter Wood will be replaced by Diego Castillo for an inning or two against the Red Sox. It doesn’t matter.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 31.6% | 15.8% | 10.0% | Season | 33.3% | Home | L14Days | ||||||||||||
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 6.0% | 13.8% | 16.9% | Season | 15.2% | 5.9% | 13.5% | 11.5% | Home | 17.4% | 5.2% | 14.5% | 15.2% | L14Days | 17.0% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 17.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 6.7% | 17.2% | 20.0% | Season | 22.8% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 17.0% | Home | 24.7% | 6.4% | 16.4% | 25.0% | L14Days | 20.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | -4.9% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | Season | 16.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 18.7% | Home | 15.8% | 7.9% | 15.6% | 15.5% | L14Days | 4.8% | 9.5% | ||
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 14.7% | Season | 16.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 14.7% | Home | 16.7% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 22.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 4.4% | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 2.7% | Season | 20.5% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | Road | 18.1% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | L14Days | 30.4% | 13.0% | ||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 7.8% | 17.1% | 18.1% | Season | 15.9% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 21.3% | Road | 15.6% | 8.8% | 22.1% | 19.1% | L14Days | 9.6% | 20.0% | 17.4% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | Season | 17.5% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 5.6% | Road | 19.9% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 8.9% | L14Days | 16.7% | 3.7% | 9.1% | 16.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 20.0% | Season | 19.3% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 30.4% | Home | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 20.6% | L14Days | 14.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 30.5% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 29.8% | Season | 20.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 29.8% | Home | 20.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 25.6% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 15.8% | |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 18.9% | Season | 17.3% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 20.7% | Road | 14.1% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 20.4% | L14Days | 17.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 6.2% | 16.1% | 22.2% | Season | 14.1% | 5.9% | 26.9% | 31.9% | Road | 17.7% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 27.8% | L14Days | 15.0% | 10.0% | 13.8% | |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.2% | Season | 19.9% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 15.0% | Road | 20.9% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 12.1% | L14Days | 13.5% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | Season | 13.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | Road | 11.6% | 5.5% | 15.2% | 15.6% | L14Days | 5.0% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | L2 Yrs | 26.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 12.5% | Season | 26.2% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 13.9% | Home | 28.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | L14Days | 14.8% | 11.1% | 15.0% | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 7.2% | Season | 17.8% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | Road | 20.3% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 10.9% | L14Days | 21.3% | 4.3% | 8.3% | -8.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 19.1% | Season | 23.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 16.3% | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 23.9% | L14Days | 36.4% | 9.1% | 33.3% | |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 16.5% | Season | 17.3% | 8.5% | 18.7% | 21.1% | Home | 18.2% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 14.2% | L14Days | 8.9% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 10.7% | Season | 18.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 10.4% | Road | 17.5% | 3.1% | 9.7% | 12.5% | L14Days | 24.5% | 1.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 14.8% | Season | 17.7% | 6.0% | 14.5% | 20.2% | Road | 14.7% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 16.5% | L14Days | 23.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 13.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 16.1% | Season | 19.8% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 23.9% | Home | 16.4% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 21.9% | L14Days | ||||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 16.3% | Season | 24.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 18.0% | Road | 25.0% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 19.5% | L14Days | 22.5% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 29.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.9% | Season | 28.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 15.0% | Road | 22.5% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 12.3% | L14Days | 29.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 4.1% | 9.2% | 14.5% | Season | 17.3% | 4.1% | 9.2% | 14.5% | Road | 17.6% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | L14Days | 22.0% | 2.0% | 20.0% | 29.8% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 13.0% | Season | 16.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 14.3% | Road | 15.0% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 17.5% | L14Days | 19.4% | 5.6% | 33.3% | 38.5% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.4% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 16.3% | Season | 25.3% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 26.1% | Home | 27.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 19.0% | L14Days | 25.5% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 17.4% | Season | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 17.4% | Home | 16.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 22.2% | L14Days | 5.6% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 40.5% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 19.9% | Season | 16.9% | 4.9% | 12.7% | 23.2% | Road | 18.1% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 21.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 19.3% | Season | 15.5% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 30.7% | Home | 18.6% | 13.4% | 17.9% | 13.1% | L14Days | 15.9% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 37.1% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 15.4% | Season | 23.8% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 15.5% | Home | 26.1% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 17.9% | L14Days | 24.5% | 9.4% | 28.6% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 16.2% | RH | 21.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 20.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 19.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.8% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 17.0% | RH | 22.5% | 9.3% | 16.1% | 17.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 17.1% |
| Astros | Road | 19.7% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 20.4% | LH | 19.7% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 16.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.4% | 17.6% | 13.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.1% | 9.1% | 16.5% | 18.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 20.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.3% | 18.5% | 24.3% |
| Indians | Road | 19.7% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 19.8% | RH | 19.0% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 25.0% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 14.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 10.1% | LH | 21.9% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.7% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 18.7% | LH | 22.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 20.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.7% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| Angels | Home | 21.2% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 22.7% | LH | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 18.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 27.2% |
| Braves | Road | 20.3% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 18.6% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 18.9% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 26.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.0% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | RH | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 21.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 20.1% |
| Giants | Home | 21.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 19.8% | RH | 23.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 17.8% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.2% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 26.2% | RH | 23.8% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 20.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.6% | 20.5% | 27.7% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 12.5% | LH | 25.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 14.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 3.8% | 9.4% | 19.7% |
| Rays | Home | 22.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 17.1% | RH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 16.4% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 20.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 19.5% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 21.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.0% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 13.3% | RH | 22.6% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 16.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 21.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.1% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 22.9% | RH | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 23.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 22.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.7% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 15.7% | LH | 22.9% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 15.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.3% | 12.7% | 11.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.6% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 25.9% | RH | 25.0% | 8.1% | 16.1% | 18.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 25.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 10.4% | RH | 20.9% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.6% | 18.4% | 11.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.3% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 18.6% | RH | 25.7% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 24.4% | 10.2% | 19.4% | 7.6% |
| Royals | Home | 19.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 25.0% | RH | 20.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 21.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 16.3% | RH | 22.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.0% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.3% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 15.6% | RH | 23.8% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 16.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 24.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 23.7% | RH | 22.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 18.6% |
| Padres | Road | 25.3% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 13.9% | LH | 24.0% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.0% | LH | 23.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% |
| Twins | Home | 22.0% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 22.3% | LH | 23.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 12.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.5% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 19.2% | LH | 21.9% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.3% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 18.9% | RH | 20.2% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 14.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | 33.3% | 3.7% | 9.00 | 33.3% | 3.7% | 9.00 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 15.2% | 7.6% | 2.00 | 15.3% | 9.0% | 1.70 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 22.8% | 11.5% | 1.98 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 1.87 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 16.8% | 6.7% | 2.51 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 2.98 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.98 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 20.5% | 10.5% | 1.95 | 33.3% | 12.1% | 2.75 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 15.9% | 8.5% | 1.87 | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.51 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 17.5% | 8.6% | 2.03 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.05 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.3% | 9.9% | 1.95 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 2.25 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.42 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 3.13 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 | 12.9% | 8.0% | 1.61 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 14.1% | 7.5% | 1.88 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 1.95 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 19.9% | 9.2% | 2.16 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.96 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 13.5% | 7.7% | 1.75 | 6.8% | 5.2% | 1.31 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 26.2% | 14.8% | 1.77 | 31.7% | 15.4% | 2.06 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.8% | 7.1% | 2.51 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 2.82 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 23.8% | 10.6% | 2.25 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 3.00 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 17.3% | 10.5% | 1.65 | 16.3% | 10.5% | 1.55 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 18.8% | 10.4% | 1.81 | 14.2% | 9.7% | 1.46 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 1.83 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 19.8% | 10.5% | 1.89 | |||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 24.0% | 11.7% | 2.05 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.95 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.2% | 10.3% | 2.74 | 28.1% | 9.7% | 2.90 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 17.3% | 8.9% | 1.94 | 15.8% | 9.7% | 1.63 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.6% | 8.9% | 1.87 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 1.74 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 25.3% | 9.1% | 2.78 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 2.42 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 14.0% | 6.7% | 2.09 | 9.1% | 5.8% | 1.57 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 16.9% | 9.9% | 1.71 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 1.88 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 15.5% | 9.5% | 1.63 | 16.1% | 9.9% | 1.63 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 23.8% | 11.9% | 2.00 | 27.1% | 12.0% | 2.26 |
Just six guys above a league average strikeout rate and each of the top two have questionable swinging strike rates.
Jason Vargas has the highest SwStr% of his career in a lost season.
Joe Musgrove struck out exactly two in three straight starts prior to his last two with a total of 13. The 9.7 SwStr% suggests the earlier were the aberration.
Mike Foltynewicz is what he is at this point. The K/SwStr is borderline for the season, but still marginally acceptable as long as he remains above a double digit SwStr%.
Rich Hill does have an increased SwStr% with a slightly decreased K% over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | 0.00 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 6.22 | 6.22 | 0.00 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 2.81 | 2.81 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 5.09 | 4.54 | -0.55 | 5.09 | -0.65 | 4.55 | -0.54 | 5.37 | 0.28 | 2.06 | 4.17 | 2.11 | 3.88 | 1.82 | 3.21 | 1.15 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 4.11 | 3.89 | -0.22 | 4.11 | -0.25 | 3.80 | -0.31 | 3.57 | -0.54 | 5.68 | 3.73 | -1.95 | 3.67 | -2.01 | 3.85 | -1.83 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 4.47 | 4.64 | 0.17 | 4.47 | 0.20 | 3.71 | -0.76 | 4.73 | 0.26 | 2.16 | 5.37 | 3.21 | 5.41 | 3.25 | 3.34 | 1.18 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.32 | 4.62 | 1.30 | 3.32 | 1.01 | 3.72 | 0.40 | 5.42 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 4.53 | 0.93 | 4.25 | 0.65 | 4.12 | 0.52 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.32 | 4.30 | 0.98 | 3.32 | 1.04 | 4.38 | 1.06 | 4.76 | 1.44 | 2.33 | 3.73 | 1.40 | 3.45 | 1.12 | 3.52 | 1.19 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 5.11 | 4.48 | -0.63 | 5.11 | -0.90 | 4.54 | -0.57 | 4.71 | -0.40 | 6.43 | 4.94 | -1.49 | 4.6 | -1.83 | 5.62 | -0.81 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.59 | 4.02 | 0.43 | 3.59 | 0.11 | 3.69 | 0.10 | 3.52 | -0.07 | 3.82 | 4.06 | 0.24 | 3.75 | -0.07 | 3.84 | 0.02 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.60 | 4.98 | 0.38 | 4.60 | 0.42 | 5.51 | 0.91 | 5.56 | 0.96 | 6.39 | 4.86 | -1.53 | 5.31 | -1.08 | 6.23 | -0.16 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 2.25 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 3.08 | 0.83 | 4.49 | 2.24 | 1.33 | 3.76 | 2.43 | 3.4 | 2.07 | 2.60 | 1.27 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 5.71 | 5.22 | -0.49 | 5.71 | -0.49 | 6.13 | 0.42 | 6.41 | 0.70 | 7.43 | 6.03 | -1.40 | 5.86 | -1.57 | 6.68 | -0.75 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 5.49 | 4.90 | -0.59 | 5.49 | -0.31 | 7.63 | 2.14 | 6.59 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 5.08 | 4.18 | 4.94 | 4.04 | 3.46 | 2.56 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 4.51 | 4.74 | 0.23 | 4.51 | -0.13 | 4.26 | -0.25 | 4.10 | -0.41 | 6.84 | 5.45 | -1.39 | 5 | -1.84 | 5.28 | -1.56 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 2.74 | 4.59 | 1.85 | 2.74 | 1.98 | 4.33 | 1.59 | 5.50 | 2.76 | 3.21 | 5.76 | 2.55 | 5.71 | 2.50 | 5.23 | 2.02 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 3.86 | 3.85 | -0.01 | 3.86 | -0.26 | 3.69 | -0.17 | 2.04 | -1.82 | 4.97 | 3.48 | -1.49 | 2.73 | -2.24 | 2.84 | -2.13 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.25 | 4.31 | 1.06 | 3.25 | 0.84 | 3.84 | 0.59 | 3.77 | 0.52 | 2.53 | 3.75 | 1.22 | 3.71 | 1.18 | 3.03 | 0.50 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.55 | 4.31 | -0.24 | 4.55 | 0.10 | 4.24 | -0.31 | 5.80 | 1.25 | 5.32 | 4.19 | -1.13 | 4.46 | -0.86 | 3.32 | -2.00 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 7.67 | 4.86 | -2.81 | 7.67 | -2.68 | 5.99 | -1.68 | 6.09 | -1.58 | 6.00 | 5.09 | -0.91 | 4.82 | -1.18 | 4.87 | -1.13 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 3.31 | 4.15 | 0.84 | 3.31 | 0.86 | 3.55 | 0.24 | 3.52 | 0.21 | 2.12 | 4.20 | 2.08 | 4.02 | 1.90 | 3.33 | 1.21 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 4.91 | 4.45 | -0.46 | 4.91 | -0.41 | 4.78 | -0.13 | 4.58 | -0.33 | 3.63 | 4.37 | 0.74 | 4.49 | 0.86 | 4.10 | 0.47 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.50 | 4.39 | -0.11 | 4.50 | -0.26 | 4.27 | -0.23 | 4.56 | 0.06 | |||||||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.25 | 4.01 | 0.76 | 3.25 | 0.76 | 3.49 | 0.24 | 3.99 | 0.74 | 2.48 | 3.86 | 1.38 | 4.11 | 1.63 | 4.36 | 1.88 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.72 | 3.68 | 0.96 | 2.72 | 0.89 | 3.38 | 0.66 | 3.37 | 0.65 | 2.27 | 3.43 | 1.16 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 3.38 | 1.11 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.80 | 4.01 | 1.21 | 2.80 | 0.94 | 3.37 | 0.57 | 3.38 | 0.58 | 2.73 | 4.12 | 1.39 | 3.8 | 1.07 | 3.97 | 1.24 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.72 | 5.26 | 0.54 | 4.72 | 0.89 | 5.27 | 0.55 | 6.47 | 1.75 | 7.46 | 5.02 | -2.44 | 5.47 | -1.99 | 7.62 | 0.16 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 3.73 | 3.98 | 0.25 | 3.73 | 0.38 | 4.34 | 0.61 | 4.81 | 1.08 | 2.67 | 4.12 | 1.45 | 4.17 | 1.50 | 3.72 | 1.05 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 4.27 | 5.07 | 0.80 | 4.27 | 0.62 | 3.54 | -0.73 | 4.68 | 0.41 | 4.85 | 5.62 | 0.77 | 5.47 | 0.62 | 4.23 | -0.62 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.70 | 4.39 | 0.69 | 3.70 | 0.58 | 4.29 | 0.59 | 3.93 | 0.23 | 5.33 | 4.52 | -0.81 | 4.31 | -1.02 | 4.02 | -1.31 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 2.18 | 5.07 | 2.89 | 2.18 | 2.36 | 4.13 | 1.95 | 4.47 | 2.29 | 2.57 | 4.77 | 2.20 | 4.25 | 1.68 | 4.23 | 1.66 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.44 | 4.09 | -0.35 | 4.44 | -0.58 | 3.71 | -0.73 | 4.46 | 0.02 | 3.69 | 3.17 | -0.52 | 2.91 | -0.78 | 1.92 | -1.77 |
C.C. Sabathia has a 78.1 LOB%, not too bad, but also a 17% unearned run rate.
Jason Vargas has a .346 BABIP, 64 LOB% and 18.7 HR/FB.
Joe Musgrove has an 8.0 HR/FB and 11.1% unearned run rate.
Mike Foltynewicz has an 80.2 LOB% and 12.5% unearned run rate.
Zack Godley has a .327 BABIP and 10.3% unearned run rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | 0.283 | 0.000 | -0.283 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | -13.4% |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.313 | 0.316 | 0.003 | 50.3% | 18.1% | 12.8% | 90.7% | 33.9% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 42.0% | 23.1% | 12.2% | 85.3% | 34.5% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 46.3% | 20.7% | 13.0% | 88.7% | 41.4% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.315 | 0.298 | -0.017 | 54.8% | 20.1% | 9.2% | 90.5% | 35.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.292 | 0.278 | -0.014 | 45.0% | 20.3% | 11.2% | 88.1% | 34.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.307 | 0.282 | -0.025 | 57.0% | 21.4% | 6.8% | 89.1% | 37.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.285 | 0.290 | 0.005 | 53.8% | 23.1% | 10.9% | 89.2% | 34.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.268 | -0.026 | 33.7% | 26.3% | 11.8% | 87.5% | 39.7% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.297 | 0.251 | -0.046 | 40.4% | 25.8% | 10.5% | 90.0% | 33.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 44.8% | 21.0% | 5.6% | 90.5% | 37.1% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 0.298 | 0.237 | -0.061 | 43.9% | 16.7% | 7.7% | 88.7% | 33.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.289 | 0.320 | 0.031 | 47.1% | 22.9% | 7.5% | 86.5% | 36.1% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 50.2% | 20.7% | 12.7% | 91.8% | 41.9% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.275 | 0.382 | 0.107 | 44.2% | 27.3% | 13.6% | 77.8% | 34.1% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.300 | 0.278 | -0.022 | 52.9% | 19.2% | 8.7% | 90.6% | 31.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.000 | 28.6% | 24.0% | 14.4% | 84.3% | 40.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.299 | 0.346 | 0.047 | 37.8% | 23.3% | 9.3% | 85.3% | 29.8% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.299 | 0.288 | -0.011 | 47.7% | 19.2% | 12.5% | 86.2% | 32.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.299 | 0.283 | -0.016 | 42.6% | 19.7% | 13.0% | 86.8% | 45.4% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.299 | 0.009 | 45.6% | 21.4% | 10.2% | 85.5% | 34.9% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.296 | 0.302 | 0.006 | 40.3% | 20.4% | 10.1% | 82.8% | 35.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.282 | 0.271 | -0.011 | 42.6% | 20.3% | 13.1% | 83.7% | 36.6% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.265 | -0.020 | 50.4% | 22.0% | 10.8% | 88.8% | 32.8% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.268 | -0.022 | 33.7% | 19.1% | 13.8% | 86.0% | 44.7% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.001 | 37.2% | 22.7% | 10.3% | 83.8% | 36.1% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.307 | 0.331 | 0.024 | 48.1% | 19.3% | 13.6% | 91.0% | 29.0% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.272 | 0.247 | -0.025 | 44.1% | 21.0% | 9.7% | 89.2% | 35.2% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.277 | 0.239 | -0.038 | 50.0% | 23.5% | 8.6% | 86.8% | 30.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.327 | 0.043 | 50.9% | 22.1% | 13.9% | 89.2% | 31.4% |
Jason Vargas really has some perplexing numbers. He has a high line drive and home run rate despite generating some of the weakest contact on the board. He does have a 37.8 GB%, which might lead to more barrels (8.3%), but that should have no reflection on his BABIP.
Zack Godley doesn’t have a slightly elevated 22.1 LD% with a 50.9 GB% and 87.9 mph aEV that suggests he might be slightly above a league average BABIP, but he has generated some popups and the defense is decent. He’s probably suffered some bad luck this season.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | Cubs | 0.237 | -0.237 | |||||||||
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.343 | 0.003 | 0.314 | -0.016 | 0.298 | -0.036 | -1.900 | 88.4 | 7.1 | 40.800 | 453 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.324 | -0.023 | 0.315 | -0.032 | 0.321 | -0.009 | -1.300 | 86.5 | 7.7 | 36.000 | 405 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 0.341 | -0.032 | 0.318 | 0.008 | 0.336 | -0.037 | 0.300 | 88.7 | 3.6 | 39.800 | 166 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.325 | -0.026 | 0.341 | -0.062 | 0.323 | -0.005 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 4.9 | 32.900 | 307 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.305 | 0.006 | 0.313 | 0.003 | 0.299 | -0.010 | 0.700 | 84.9 | 5.5 | 26.600 | 361 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.357 | -0.031 | 0.356 | 0.008 | 0.414 | -0.066 | -2.000 | 89.4 | 5.7 | 39.800 | 488 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.309 | -0.011 | 0.304 | -0.011 | 0.324 | -0.045 | -0.400 | 87.4 | 4.2 | 33.900 | 519 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.371 | -0.029 | 0.324 | 0.006 | 0.340 | 0.037 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 7.5 | 39.500 | 306 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.300 | -0.033 | 0.289 | -0.046 | 0.298 | -0.094 | -0.100 | 88.5 | 2.6 | 36.800 | 231 |
| Drew Hutchison | Rangers | 0.373 | 0.006 | 0.379 | 0.003 | 0.378 | 0.018 | -1.200 | 88.2 | 8.4 | 36.400 | 107 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 0.471 | -0.075 | 0.383 | -0.019 | 0.341 | -0.100 | -0.400 | 91.3 | 13.6 | 47.000 | 66 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.340 | -0.004 | 0.297 | -0.010 | 0.397 | -0.019 | -0.900 | 87.3 | 5.7 | 34.400 | 389 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 0.343 | -0.018 | 0.361 | -0.028 | 0.356 | -0.045 | 0.500 | 88.3 | 5.8 | 33.000 | 206 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.293 | 0.063 | 0.286 | 0.059 | 0.319 | 0.098 | -0.900 | 85.5 | 1.4 | 24.300 | 74 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.313 | -0.019 | 0.327 | -0.009 | 0.309 | -0.021 | -0.700 | 86.9 | 4.6 | 30.700 | 417 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.345 | -0.011 | 0.340 | -0.001 | 0.317 | -0.035 | -1.000 | 88.3 | 8.8 | 39.100 | 363 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.357 | 0.050 | 0.321 | 0.016 | 0.328 | 0.037 | -0.700 | 85.5 | 8.3 | 28.900 | 180 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.291 | -0.002 | 0.309 | -0.011 | 0.271 | -0.040 | -0.200 | 86.6 | 4.1 | 31.400 | 271 |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | 0.347 | -0.015 | 0.364 | 0.018 | 0.346 | 0.016 | -0.700 | 88.6 | 7.4 | 38.500 | 377 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.341 | -0.016 | 0.336 | -0.057 | 0.000 | 88.2 | 6.3 | 37.300 | 335 | ||
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.303 | -0.001 | 0.282 | -0.014 | 0.281 | 0.025 | 0.500 | 86.7 | 5.7 | 33.300 | 418 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.297 | -0.018 | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.002 | -0.400 | 88 | 7.6 | 33.700 | 353 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.304 | -0.040 | 0.316 | -0.041 | 0.335 | -0.058 | -0.300 | 85.3 | 5.5 | 29.700 | 488 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.371 | -0.035 | 0.350 | 0.005 | 0.438 | -0.036 | -0.200 | 88.3 | 7.9 | 35.600 | 441 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.343 | -0.027 | 0.315 | -0.026 | 0.304 | -0.032 | -0.600 | 87.5 | 8.0 | 36.900 | 249 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.340 | -0.008 | 0.329 | -0.024 | 0.326 | 0.010 | -0.300 | 87.3 | 6.2 | 32.200 | 177 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.342 | -0.054 | 0.348 | -0.024 | 0.329 | -0.002 | 0.300 | 88.1 | 8.1 | 38.300 | 472 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.338 | -0.063 | 0.348 | -0.002 | 0.341 | -0.068 | -0.800 | 86.4 | 5.1 | 34.300 | 137 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.344 | -0.024 | 0.313 | -0.027 | 0.313 | -0.040 | -1.300 | 87.9 | 6.9 | 36.400 | 407 |
Nobody is below a .290 xwOBA today and the second lowest rate is not even a real starting pitcher nor actually pitching today, giving us just two below .300.
Jason Vargas has an xwOBA 37 points below his actual mark over the last month, tied for the highest positive game on the board. His .357 mark for the season is not good, but still 50 points below his season mark, also the highest positive gap on the board. In this case, positive gaps mean the pitcher has pitched better than his results.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is an incredibly tough board. The saving grace may be that there are many extremely negative run environments on the board, but only one extremely positive one. It’s still difficult to find many usable arms or even to separate them. There’s nobody, absolutely nobody, on this board that I’d classify as a great or even really good value. There are just six pitchers above a league average strikeout rate. Some of them are in good matchups, but not necessarily high strikeout ones. Some of them aren’t even very good and are in bad matchups. I’m removing tiers today because I can’t find separation and just listing some of the starting pitchers you might be interested in using if playing daily fantasy baseball tonight.
And no, I did not intend for this group to largely be comprised of below average velocity lefties. I’ve attempted to place them in some sort of preferable order, but I don’t know if even that is working out very well.
Dallas Keuchel (2) should get a bunch of weak ground balls against a weak, but contact prone Angels’ lineup in a favorable park. Is that worth more than $9K with a low strikeout expectation? It might be tonight.
Joe Musgrove is in a dangerous spot and not very cheap, but still probably affordable. He’s the best pitcher on the board by xwOBA and despite the danger, the matchup does have some upside.
Rich Hill may not be as safe or as high upside as some believe and not cheap either. The matchup is still favorable in a great park against the Padres and he has gone at least six innings in six of seven starts now too.
Zack Godley is not in a very high upside spot, but he does benefit from the NL park, which will cause the Mariners to abandon the DH. Of all the above average strikeout guys tonight who are usable, his K% is the one I’d have the most confidence in being sustained at it’s current level at least.
Andrew Heaney is in a tough spot in a favorable park. He’s one of the few pitchers on the board averaging at least six innings per start this year and reasonably priced.
Mike Foltynewicz (1) is not a pitcher I’m usually interested in at an elevated price. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and probably over-priced, but he’s likely to give you a heavy workload and potentially a top strikeout rate in a great matchup in a great park.
Jason Vargas is having a season that doesn’t make a lot of sense when looking at not the estimators and strikeout rate, but the numbers even below that (SwStr%, exit velocity). He’s very cheap in a marginal spot in a great park and his last two starts have seen some better results.
Gio Gonzalez is someone you can roster and pray for. The Mets have been terrible against LHP at home. He’s been terrible too, but is down to $6.4K on DraftKings.
C.C. Sabathia could generate a few strikeouts and should limit hard contact against a weak lineup while he’s in there, but he hasn’t pitched in two weeks and could have a shortened workload. Who knows if his knee holds up?
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.