Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, August 3rd
My invitation to the DraftKings Sportsbook arrived yesterday. I can’t tell you the last time I placed an actual sports bet, but there are so many options I didn’t know what to do first. Anyone remember back in the day, when your only two options were team and total? So, I’m thinking deGrom +300 to win the NL CY might be my first action. No, not because I think he will win, but because it will give me another reason to complain about traditional writers and the current voting system when the lack of Wins costs him the damn thing. Maybe some kind of post-season Futures wager on the Dodgers too? It’ll be interesting to begin to explore again the different knowledge base necessary to succeed at that endeavor as opposed to DFS. Some of it’s the same, but there are some differences.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.68 | 5.7 | 50.5% | 0.90 | 3.37 | 4.67 | Astros | 117 | 117 | 101 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 4.2 | 4.08 | 5.4 | 38.5% | 0.91 | 4.72 | 4.31 | Mets | 77 | 93 | 74 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | -2.4 | 4.18 | 5.7 | 41.8% | 1.00 | 5.42 | 3.31 | Nationals | 106 | 98 | 148 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 2.8 | 5.61 | 5.1 | 47.2% | 1.14 | 5.46 | Orioles | 78 | 88 | 169 | |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.51 | 5.1 | 40.5% | 0.95 | 5.14 | 5.28 | Athletics | 93 | 104 | 125 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.88 | 4.2 | 50.3% | 0.95 | 4.67 | 4.54 | Tigers | 77 | 101 | 73 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | -3.1 | 3.48 | 5.9 | 44.9% | 0.97 | 3.05 | 2.64 | Cardinals | 100 | 92 | 87 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -6.4 | 4.78 | 5.3 | 41.3% | 1.00 | 4.35 | 3.22 | Diamondbacks | 92 | 86 | 119 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -8.8 | 5.58 | 5.2 | 34.1% | 1.14 | 5.42 | 4.47 | Rangers | 105 | 93 | 146 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.11 | 5.5 | 46.9% | 1.04 | 4.08 | 3.16 | Brewers | 91 | 95 | 94 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -4.1 | 4.33 | 5.8 | 48.1% | 1.00 | 4.07 | 5.93 | Reds | 99 | 104 | 102 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 4.9 | 5.01 | 5.3 | 56.5% | 1.04 | 5.66 | 4.31 | Twins | 97 | 95 | 44 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -5.4 | 3.34 | 6.5 | 45.0% | 0.91 | 2.95 | 3.42 | Braves | 108 | 96 | 99 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.5 | 4.61 | 5.1 | 40.9% | 1.10 | 5.41 | 5.56 | Indians | 118 | 106 | 120 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.5 | 4.61 | 5.2 | 30.9% | 1.04 | 4.72 | 3.44 | Royals | 83 | 82 | 108 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | -0.9 | 4.86 | 4.8 | 47.6% | 0.97 | 5.21 | 5.98 | Pirates | 101 | 99 | 93 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.15 | 5.8 | 43.8% | 1.01 | 4.03 | 5.82 | Padres | 71 | 89 | 78 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.70 | 5.0 | 37.4% | 1.04 | 4.56 | 4.72 | Rockies | 84 | 80 | 83 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.8 | 3.44 | 6.4 | 31.4% | 0.90 | 3.80 | 2.27 | Dodgers | 111 | 114 | 113 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.46 | 5.7 | 41.3% | 0.94 | 5.79 | 5.10 | Rays | 107 | 99 | 132 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.30 | 6.0 | 46.7% | 1.12 | 3.00 | 3.02 | Red Sox | 121 | 117 | 124 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -1.4 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 45.7% | 0.91 | 3.64 | 3.42 | Blue Jays | 97 | 92 | 118 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 5.8 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 39.3% | 1.10 | 3.68 | 3.57 | Angels | 101 | 112 | 104 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.65 | 5.9 | 50.6% | 1.00 | 3.28 | 1.97 | Giants | 82 | 91 | 102 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 6 | 4.00 | 6.3 | 40.9% | 1.12 | 4.26 | 3.57 | Yankees | 105 | 109 | 133 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -4 | 4.44 | 5.8 | 45.5% | 0.91 | 5.42 | 4.52 | Mariners | 100 | 104 | 100 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 2 | 3.64 | 1.5 | 34.4% | 0.94 | 3.71 | 4.98 | White Sox | 88 | 96 | 134 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.53 | 5.0 | 38.7% | 0.99 | 4.96 | 3.05 | Phillies | 96 | 94 | 69 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -2.7 | 4.99 | 5.3 | 44.4% | 1.01 | 4.55 | 5.56 | Cubs | 109 | 106 | 102 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -8.1 | 4.01 | 5.2 | 38.3% | 0.99 | 3.89 | 4.73 | Marlins | 87 | 87 | 57 |
Alex Wood has a disappointing 7.9 K-BB% over the last month with a 6.3 point over his season GB rate to 53.6%, but also a 30.5 Hard-Soft% via Fangraphs, but just a .309 xwOBA from Statcast, no increase from his season rate. His ERA is well below his estimators over this span due to a .250 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB, which supports the weaker contact Statcast seems to suggest, not speaking to whether it’s sustainable or not (probably not). The season numbers still suggest an above average pitcher in the most negative run environment on the board. The Astros have a team 117 wRC+ on the road and a split high 117 wRC+ vs LHP, but they’re currently down a good portion of the top of their predominantly RH lineup. For all the talk of the quick hook by Dave Roberts, Wood has gone at least 5.2 innings in eight straight and has failed to pitch into the sixth inning only six times this year.
Anibal Sanchez gets a couple of days after Wednesday’s rain out and has struggled against the Dodgers and Nationals most recently (12.1 IP – 7 ER – 3 HR – 5 BB – 12 K). Fewer sinkers and more cutters this year has cut down on the HRs this year (just 10 allowed) and allowed him to miss a few more bats (23.4 K%). He has the lowest aEV on the board (84.2 mph) by more than two mph. He pitches in one of the most negative run environments on the board against an offense with just a 77 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB at home. The Mets have just a 12.3 K-BB% vs RHP, but just traded one of their top bats this season (Cabrera), while Flores is expected to be given the night off tonight as well.
Blaine Hardy has been in and out of the rotation for the Tigers this year. He struck out just four of 33 batters in his two most recent starts against the Indians and Red Sox. He’s done a decent job for the Tigers though, starting 10 games and allowing more than two runs in just three of them. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but has just a .305 xwOBA on the season. He faces a tough and hard hitting offense (24.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), but does so in a favorable park and despite their predominantly RH lineup, they’ve been a bit less prolific against southpaws this year.
Chris Archer gets his first NL start. That’s the good news. He’s outside of the AL East and facing a slightly below average offense against RHP in a slightly favorable park. Breaking it down a bit further, the Cardinals are a predominantly RH lineup in a park that suppresses RH power tonight, which should help with his chronic hard contact issues. One thing we have to talk about, though it may not even be enforced yet tonight, is the philosophical differences between his old and new organizations. The Rays like to let it fly high and generate swings and misses. The Pirates like to keep the ball down and generate ground balls. It’s certainly a philosophy that has rejuvenated some careers in the past, but also think about the difference in Gerrit Cole. Jameson Taillon’s recent slider usage could be an encouraging sign in their thought process though. At the very least, getting out of the AL East should be of benefit to him as this recent tweet by Jason Collette suggests.
German Marquez has significant home/road splits for his career, but most recently, his last two home starts have been great (13 IP – 4 ER – 16 K), while he allowed six runs with just five strikeouts in the road start in between. The strikeout rate is up to 23.8% on the season, while he has a .311 xwOBA on the road since last season. Milwaukee is a tough park against an offense that already had power (16.2 HR/FB at home, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) and added more this week. Somehow, they’ve been a below average overall offense this season (91 wRC+, 25.2 K% at home, 95 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP).
Jacob deGrom did not seem to have his best stuff last time out according to the Mets’ broadcast. Five strikeouts was his lowest total since May 13th, but the Pirates are a contact prone team and he still went seven innings. Removing starts before and after a short DL stint, he’s failed to go at least seven innings just twice in his last 16 starts. His 15.0 SwStr% is tops on the board, as is his 2.25 FIP, 3.2% Barrels/BBE, and .260 xwOBA at home since last year. Tons of strikeouts with quality contact management. The Braves have just a 96 wRC+ and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but don’t strike out much either (20.5%).
Jake Odorizzi was originally an easy skip for me, but I see his strikeout rate up to 25.9% over the last month with a 3.76 SIERA. He allowed five runs at Fenway in his last start, but previous to that he allowed a single earned run in six innings in Kansas City with eight strikeouts. He has some HR problems, but the Royals have an 82 wRC+ and 9.1 HR/FB vs RHP and just traded their top power hitter. They also have just a 19.9 K% vs RHP, but that didn’t seem to bother him last time out.
Justin Verlander has the top strikeout rate (32.9% – 39.3% over the last month), SIERA (2.83), and xwOBA (.247) on the board. That’s the triple crown of pitching stats here. He failed to go six innings in his last start for just the third time this year and one of those times he missed by a single out. He faces a loaded lineup (114 wRC+, 9.9 BB%, 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP), who have added bats, but does so in the most negative run environment on the board.
Marco Gonzales has failed to complete six innings in just two of his last 17 starts, once by a single out. His last five starts: 34.1 IP – 6 ER – 2 HR – 5 BB – 31 K – 129 BF. While the ERA is well below the estimators over that span, those estimators are still well below four for that time period and on the season. He faces a Toronto offense with a 92 wRC+ vs LHP in one of the most negative run environments on the board.
Patrick Corbin is still sustaining a 30.6 K%. It’s down to 26% over the last month, but with an increase in SwStr rate (15.6%), while he’s actually struck out 17 of his last 51. His 2.98 SIERA sits behind just Verlander tonight. He’ll start at home for the first time in a month and while the Giants have a lower 21.8 K% vs LHP, they have just an 11 HR vs LHP and on the road.
Ryan Borucki has started six games for the Blue Jays. He’s gone at least six innings with two runs or less in five of them. He has an 18.2 K% that’s below average, but is enough to be usable in the right spot at the right price. He hasn’t allowed a HR, but he also has a .342 BABIP. Both of those things should regress and he’s in a great park against an offense with just a 20.6 K% vs LHP, but also a surprisingly low 10.7 HR/FB against them as well.
Trevor Richards struck out eight Nationals through six shutout innings in his last start. This disconnect has been a walk rate below 6% in 20 starts above A ball before reaching the majors, but a 10.5 BB% in 15 MLB starts. Otherwise, the strikeout rate and contact management have been league average However, his ground ball rate has also dropped 10 points upon reaching the majors. Probably not much of an issue at home. More of an issue in Philadelphia, but the Phillies also have a split high 25.9 K% vs RHP.
Vince Velasquez has just a 20 K% over the last month with a 4.80 SIERA, but his .298 xwOBA over that span probably has something to do with the 0.95 ERA. His 27.1 K% is a top five mark among regular starters tonight and only Verlander and deGrom have a better xwOBA than his .295 mark. He has upside. He also has one of the top matchups on the board against the Marlins (87 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Clevinger (.306 – 75.2% – 7.9) has been many different pitchers over the course of this season. At this point, he seems to be the guy who strikes out batters (33.7% over the last month), but has only exceeded six innings once over his last six starts. In one of the most positive run environments on the board, the Angels have a 112 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs RHP. Tough spot.
Jon Gant (.228 – 67.1% – 9.7 – 23.3% unearned run rate) faces an offense with a 19.3 K% vs RHP.
Junior Guerra (.281 – 78.5% – 11.0) may have some strand rate and even HR regression. He’s allowed a HR in three straight though and 15 runs over his last three starts, which have comprised just 14 innings. He does miss enough bats (21.7 K%), but allows too much hard contact (42.7% 95+ mph EV) in a dangerous park.
Heath Fillmyer (.244 – 75.5% – 13.0) has a 2.6 K-BB%, but his 27.1% 95+ mph EV is best on the board.
Jaime Barria (.256 – 82.7% – 15.2) has two or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Chris Stratton last started a major league game one month ago. He last struck out more than three major league batters on June 1st. He did strike out 10 AAA batters two weeks ago and came out of the pen for 1.1 innings against the Brewers one week ago. The Diamondbacks have an 86 wRC+ and 24 K% vs RHP, but those numbers have been improving since the lineup got a little healthier and most parks outside San Francisco are a downgrade for their pitchers.
Luis Severino has been very, very off. The velocity is fine and I might do a bit more work to find out specifically the issue, but he’s facing the Red Sox (117 wRC+, 18.6 K% vs RHP) at Fenway (121 wRC+ at home). His last quality start actually came against Boston. He’s allowed seven HRs over four starts since, four of them on sliders. He has just a 20.9 K% over the last month.
Gio Gonzalez has a 4.9 K-BB% over his last 13 starts. The Reds have a 10.7 K-BB% vs LHP.
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a HR in nine of 10 starts, 14 over his last eight. The Nationals are on fire (3.6 K-BB%, 16.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Rick Porcello has a 7.4 SwStr% over the last month and gets the Yankees in a terrible park. We generally just want to avoid all three highly positive run environments tonight (Texas, Boston, Cleveland).
Ryne Stanek is in a great spot against the White Sox, but hasn’t exceeded two innings this year. Can he get you 10 DK points? Maybe? Yonny Chirinos (20.8 K%, 4.16 SIERA, 42.2 Hard%) is scheduled to be the next man up. He’s generally been starting, but has lasted less than five innings in three of his last four starts. He did last 6.2 innings against the Yankees in the other though.
Brett Anderson tops the board with 10% Barrels/BBE, not a familiar place for this ground ball pitcher. The Tigers haven’t been bad against LHP either.
Ariel Jurado gets his first home start, but struck out just four of 43 Astros and White Sox after just a 13.9 K% in 16 AA starts this season. He does have a 50 FV grade on his Fangraphs profile page, but that was from last season. He was not even mentioned in this year’s prospect rankings for the team. He’s also only facing the hottest offense in baseball (169 wRC+, 20.3 HR/FB last seven days) because that’s what happens when you trade away your two best hitters.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 15.5% | Season | 21.2% | 5.5% | 11.5% | 24.8% | Home | 22.5% | 5.1% | 14.3% | 13.6% | L14Days | 18.4% | 14.3% | 25.0% | |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 6.3% | 16.3% | 13.4% | Season | 23.4% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | Road | 21.3% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 13.8% | L14Days | 22.2% | 9.3% | 23.1% | -2.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 7.1% | 19.7% | 24.6% | Season | 21.3% | 7.6% | 24.6% | 34.6% | Road | 15.4% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 42.0% | L14Days | 32.5% | 10.0% | 42.9% | 30.4% |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 22.3% | Season | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 22.3% | Home | L14Days | 9.5% | 4.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% | ||||
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 14.8% | Season | 17.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 16.4% | Road | 16.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | L14Days | 11.8% | 5.9% | 17.9% | |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 13.1% | 7.4% | 16.9% | 15.2% | Season | 11.8% | 6.2% | 16.7% | 17.7% | Home | 13.2% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 20.3% | L14Days | 14.0% | 4.0% | 25.0% | 17.5% |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 22.9% | Season | 24.7% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 23.9% | Home | 30.6% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 27.9% | L14Days | 29.6% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 20.0% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 22.5% | Season | 17.7% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 31.1% | Road | 21.3% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 23.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 13.5% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 10.6% | Season | 13.5% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 10.6% | Road | 16.3% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 12.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | -50.0% | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 15.9% | Season | 23.8% | 8.1% | 18.6% | 14.8% | Road | 22.0% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 16.0% | L14Days | 26.4% | 7.6% | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | Season | 20.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 12.8% | Home | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 8.1% | L14Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | 19.4% | |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | L2 Yrs | 13.3% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 17.6% | Season | 13.3% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 17.6% | Road | 12.3% | 10.5% | 18.8% | 14.0% | L14Days | 17.0% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.7% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 8.4% | Season | 30.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | Home | 32.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 6.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 3.3% | -13.9% | ||
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 7.0% | 15.2% | 22.4% | Season | 17.7% | 7.0% | 15.2% | 22.4% | Road | 16.4% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 9.6% | L14Days | 9.3% | 7.0% | 23.1% | 22.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 19.3% | Season | 24.0% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 16.2% | Home | 22.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 23.3% | L14Days | 27.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 18.7% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 21.8% | Season | 19.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 27.1% | Road | 17.4% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 29.8% | L14Days | 14.9% | 14.9% | 27.3% | 42.4% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% | Season | 20.4% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 22.4% | Home | 25.1% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 10.3% | L14Days | 17.0% | 14.9% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 20.8% | Season | 22.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 26.3% | Home | 24.2% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 16.6% | L14Days | 20.5% | 11.4% | 22.2% | 33.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 29.3% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | Season | 32.9% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | Road | 28.5% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | L14Days | 37.5% | 6.3% | 40.0% | 7.4% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.0% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 15.7% | Season | 13.8% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 14.9% | Road | 11.9% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 21.4% | L14Days | 16.0% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 32.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 10.7% | Season | 28.6% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 13.2% | Road | 28.9% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 13.7% | L14Days | 27.1% | 2.1% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 5.2% | 13.4% | 15.6% | Season | 21.9% | 4.9% | 11.5% | 19.4% | Home | 21.8% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 7.4% | L14Days | 26.0% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 23.5% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 17.2% | Season | 24.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 18.9% | Home | 26.0% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 16.1% | L14Days | 31.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 14.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 7.5% | 14.6% | 18.3% | Season | 30.6% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 25.6% | Home | 25.4% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 19.5% | L14Days | 33.3% | 3.9% | 9.4% | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 5.0% | 12.4% | 16.1% | Season | 22.4% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | Home | 21.3% | 5.5% | 14.1% | 15.5% | L14Days | 23.4% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 17.6% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 7.2% | 20.2% | Season | 18.3% | 7.2% | 20.2% | Road | 17.3% | 12.0% | 22.7% | L14Days | 14.3% | 2.0% | 14.6% | ||||
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | L2 Yrs | 30.4% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 28.5% | Season | 30.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 21.7% | Home | 34.0% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 32.5% | L14Days | 21.9% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 23.8% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 26.8% | Season | 21.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 26.8% | Road | 24.7% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 26.2% | L14Days | 30.4% | 6.5% | 32.2% | |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 18.9% | Season | 20.7% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 19.5% | Road | 22.9% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 18.8% | L14Days | 16.7% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 34.4% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 20.0% | Season | 27.1% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 15.2% | Home | 28.1% | 9.4% | 20.2% | 17.7% | L14Days | 21.8% | 12.7% | 17.2% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 19.5% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 21.3% | LH | 20.2% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 17.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.8% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| Mets | Home | 23.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 15.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 8.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.5% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 12.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 15.5% | 11.9% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.6% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 13.6% | RH | 24.1% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.5% | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 25.2% | LH | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 24.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.1% | LH | 20.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 18.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 19.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.6% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 18.9% | RH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 21.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 23.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 26.2% | RH | 24.0% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 20.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 31.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.0% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 24.2% | RH | 25.6% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 21.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 8.7% | 27.1% | 19.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.2% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 24.8% | RH | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 17.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.6% | 14.6% | 19.6% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 17.9% | LH | 20.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 22.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 22.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 20.9% | RH | 21.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 20.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 16.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 18.5% | RH | 20.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 26.9% | RH | 19.8% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 25.3% | L7Days | 14.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 21.8% |
| Royals | Road | 21.7% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 16.0% | RH | 19.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 22.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 5.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | RH | 19.3% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 14.4% |
| Padres | Road | 25.6% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | LH | 24.4% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 18.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 16.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 17.3% | RH | 23.6% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 18.3% | RH | 21.8% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 18.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 12.6% | 22.6% | 32.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 17.3% | RH | 22.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 16.3% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 28.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.5% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 16.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.9% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 17.9% | LH | 21.6% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.4% | 17.8% | 10.6% |
| Angels | Road | 20.0% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 17.8% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 21.0% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 29.2% |
| Giants | Road | 23.9% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 18.2% | LH | 20.8% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 19.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 17.2% | RH | 22.9% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 18.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.9% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 8.6% | LH | 20.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.4% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.2% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 17.2% | RH | 25.2% | 6.8% | 13.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 12.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.8% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 7.4% | RH | 25.9% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 14.3% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 19.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.0% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | RH | 23.0% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 16.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.2% | 10.9% | 1.94 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.07 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.34 | 26.0% | 11.4% | 2.28 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.3% | 8.4% | 2.54 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.41 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 9.3% | 5.1% | 1.82 | 9.5% | 4.0% | 2.38 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 17.4% | 8.0% | 2.18 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.59 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 11.8% | 6.7% | 1.76 | 12.4% | 5.5% | 2.25 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 24.7% | 13.6% | 1.82 | 28.3% | 16.7% | 1.69 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.13 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 1.24 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 13.5% | 8.4% | 1.61 | 30.8% | 11.7% | 2.63 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 23.8% | 10.3% | 2.31 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 2.27 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.23 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 2.14 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.02 | 13.3% | 6.2% | 2.15 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 30.1% | 15.0% | 2.01 | 25.2% | 13.2% | 1.91 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 17.7% | 11.0% | 1.61 | 11.6% | 9.6% | 1.21 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 24.0% | 11.3% | 2.12 | 25.9% | 11.3% | 2.29 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 19.8% | 11.8% | 1.68 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 1.47 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 20.4% | 7.7% | 2.65 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 2.60 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.39 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.52 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 32.9% | 13.6% | 2.42 | 39.3% | 17.0% | 2.31 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 13.8% | 7.9% | 1.75 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 28.6% | 12.4% | 2.31 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 2.05 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 2.92 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 24.3% | 11.7% | 2.08 | 33.7% | 13.8% | 2.44 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 30.6% | 14.8% | 2.07 | 26.0% | 15.6% | 1.67 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.64 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 3.14 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.23 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.24 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 30.4% | 14.7% | 2.07 | 31.8% | 16.4% | 1.94 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.38 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 2.42 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.33 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 2.26 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 27.1% | 11.5% | 2.36 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 |
Patrick Corbin is not a concern with a lower strikeout rate over the last month. He’s had 17 over his last two starts and the SwStr% is actually up. There’s otherwise not very much to see here today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 3.68 | 3.85 | 0.17 | 3.68 | -0.05 | 3.50 | -0.18 | 3.10 | -0.58 | 3.04 | 4.58 | 1.54 | 4.32 | 1.28 | 3.75 | 0.71 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 3.00 | 3.98 | 0.98 | 3.00 | 1.07 | 3.97 | 0.97 | 3.36 | 0.36 | 3.24 | 3.51 | 0.27 | 3.43 | 0.19 | 3.48 | 0.24 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 5.47 | 4.25 | -1.22 | 5.47 | -1.20 | 6.07 | 0.60 | 5.04 | -0.43 | 6.66 | 4.11 | -2.55 | 4.19 | -2.47 | 7.11 | 0.45 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 4.22 | 5.60 | 1.38 | 4.22 | 1.19 | 4.48 | 0.26 | 7.67 | 3.45 | 1.50 | 5.46 | 3.96 | 5.19 | 3.69 | 5.16 | 3.66 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.61 | 4.49 | 0.88 | 3.61 | 1.03 | 3.84 | 0.23 | 4.31 | 0.70 | 4.26 | 3.97 | -0.29 | 3.98 | -0.28 | 2.29 | -1.97 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 5.55 | 4.87 | -0.68 | 5.55 | -0.78 | 5.29 | -0.26 | 7.53 | 1.98 | 3.98 | 4.76 | 0.78 | 4.74 | 0.76 | 4.88 | 0.90 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 4.31 | 3.75 | -0.56 | 4.31 | -0.69 | 3.62 | -0.69 | 4.46 | 0.15 | 4.58 | 3.03 | -1.55 | 2.69 | -1.89 | 2.76 | -1.82 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 5.14 | 4.75 | -0.39 | 5.14 | -0.64 | 4.42 | -0.72 | 5.16 | 0.02 | 14.14 | 4.25 | -9.89 | 4 | -10.14 | 8.16 | -5.98 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 5.94 | 5.58 | -0.36 | 5.94 | 0.10 | 6.20 | 0.26 | 8.11 | 2.17 | 6.00 | 3.43 | -2.57 | 5.23 | -0.77 | 6.83 | 0.83 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 4.82 | 3.88 | -0.94 | 4.82 | -1.12 | 4.39 | -0.43 | 3.74 | -1.08 | 3.65 | 2.64 | -1.01 | 2.37 | -1.28 | 3.81 | 0.16 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 3.78 | 4.63 | 0.85 | 3.78 | 0.51 | 3.99 | 0.21 | 4.67 | 0.89 | 3.80 | 5.46 | 1.66 | 4.89 | 1.09 | 4.05 | 0.25 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 3.29 | 5.01 | 1.72 | 3.29 | 1.58 | 4.92 | 1.63 | 5.98 | 2.69 | 3.38 | 5.06 | 1.68 | 4.89 | 1.51 | 4.80 | 1.42 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.82 | 3.01 | 1.19 | 1.82 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 0.43 | 2.27 | 0.45 | 1.74 | 3.35 | 1.61 | 3.35 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 0.39 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.74 | 4.61 | 0.87 | 3.74 | 0.98 | 5.12 | 1.38 | 5.09 | 1.35 | 4.64 | 5.27 | 0.63 | 5.2 | 0.56 | 5.79 | 1.15 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.58 | 4.34 | -0.24 | 4.58 | 0.13 | 4.45 | -0.13 | 5.49 | 0.91 | 4.44 | 3.76 | -0.68 | 4.09 | -0.35 | 3.39 | -1.05 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 3.49 | 4.76 | 1.27 | 3.49 | 1.22 | 4.31 | 0.82 | 4.11 | 0.62 | 2.66 | 5.33 | 2.67 | 5.22 | 2.56 | 5.92 | 3.26 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.26 | 4.76 | 0.50 | 4.26 | 0.25 | 4.69 | 0.43 | 4.98 | 0.72 | 4.09 | 5.62 | 1.53 | 5.3 | 1.21 | 5.21 | 1.12 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 3.43 | 4.30 | 0.87 | 3.43 | 0.92 | 4.12 | 0.69 | 5.12 | 1.69 | 4.68 | 4.64 | -0.04 | 4.43 | -0.25 | 4.28 | -0.40 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 2.24 | 2.83 | 0.59 | 2.24 | 1.09 | 2.87 | 0.63 | 2.05 | -0.19 | 2.70 | 1.95 | -0.75 | 2.19 | -0.51 | 3.53 | 0.83 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 6.26 | 5.88 | -0.38 | 6.26 | -0.13 | 6.09 | -0.17 | 7.73 | 1.47 | 5.28 | 5.31 | 0.03 | 5.26 | -0.02 | 6.03 | 0.75 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.94 | 3.21 | 0.27 | 2.94 | 0.17 | 2.92 | -0.02 | 2.59 | -0.35 | 8.84 | 3.98 | -4.86 | 4.01 | -4.83 | 6.68 | -2.16 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 3.37 | 3.70 | 0.33 | 3.37 | 0.10 | 3.35 | -0.02 | 3.12 | -0.25 | 1.78 | 3.51 | 1.73 | 3.35 | 1.57 | 2.89 | 1.11 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.43 | 3.97 | 0.54 | 3.43 | 0.51 | 3.30 | -0.13 | 3.66 | 0.23 | 4.94 | 3.14 | -1.80 | 3.24 | -1.70 | 3.63 | -1.31 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.26 | 2.98 | -0.28 | 3.26 | -0.58 | 2.65 | -0.61 | 2.98 | -0.28 | 3.68 | 3.10 | -0.58 | 2.69 | -0.99 | 1.90 | -1.78 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4.03 | 3.85 | -0.18 | 4.03 | -0.09 | 3.71 | -0.32 | 4.16 | 0.13 | 6.53 | 4.04 | -2.49 | 4.2 | -2.33 | 3.94 | -2.59 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 2.83 | 4.44 | 1.61 | 2.83 | 1.41 | 2.51 | -0.32 | 5.26 | 2.43 | 2.86 | 4.61 | 1.75 | 4.59 | 1.73 | 2.57 | -0.29 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 2.36 | 3.61 | 1.25 | 2.36 | 1.69 | 3.33 | 0.97 | 2.73 | 0.37 | 2.70 | 3.06 | 0.36 | 3.51 | 0.81 | 3.10 | 0.40 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 4.06 | 4.53 | 0.47 | 4.06 | 0.41 | 3.65 | -0.41 | 4.18 | 0.12 | 2.30 | 4.24 | 1.94 | 4.15 | 1.85 | 3.13 | 0.83 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 4.41 | 4.48 | 0.07 | 4.41 | -0.22 | 4.48 | 0.07 | 5.45 | 1.04 | 7.85 | 5.40 | -2.45 | 4.82 | -3.03 | 5.07 | -2.78 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 4.02 | 3.80 | -0.22 | 4.02 | -0.13 | 3.72 | -0.30 | 3.40 | -0.62 | 0.95 | 4.80 | 3.85 | 4.65 | 3.70 | 3.01 | 2.06 |
Anibal Sanchez has a .249 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%. Neither is likely sustainable, but the estimators still suggest a decent pitcher.
Blaine Hardy has a 7.7 HR/FB and three of his 28 runs have been unearned.
Chris Archer has a .343 BABIP.
German Marquez has an 18.6 HR/FB, which would seem to make this a really dangerous matchup, but it’s just a 13.7 HR/FB on the road.
Jacob deGrom has an 83 LOB%, 6.8 HR/FB and 12.5% unearned run rate.
Justin Verlander has a .259 BABIP, 87 LOB% and 9.8 HR/FB. The strand rate seems to be the real issue here. His previous high was 80.3% in 2011, though he’s been barely below 80% each of the last two seasons.
Ryan Borucki has a .342 BABIP and 68 LOB%, but it’s the fact that he hasn’t allowed a HR yet that has his non-FIP estimators well above his ERA. Lack of strikeouts and a fairly high exit velocity probably supports those estimators.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.289 | 0.287 | -0.002 | 47.3% | 22.8% | 4.8% | 88.4% | 32.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.278 | 0.249 | -0.029 | 41.6% | 18.2% | 7.1% | 84.2% | 35.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.296 | 0.271 | -0.025 | 38.7% | 21.9% | 3.3% | 87.6% | 37.4% |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.200 | -0.104 | 47.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 95.5% | 34.4% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.292 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 41.9% | 17.3% | 10.3% | 89.4% | 31.2% |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.355 | 0.080 | 52.0% | 19.7% | 8.3% | 90.9% | 38.3% |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.343 | 0.043 | 44.7% | 23.6% | 9.2% | 83.7% | 38.9% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.295 | 0.316 | 0.021 | 40.5% | 26.8% | 3.0% | 86.5% | 38.1% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.319 | 0.277 | -0.042 | 34.1% | 17.6% | 9.8% | 88.8% | 44.5% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.303 | 0.313 | 0.010 | 47.7% | 21.6% | 7.8% | 87.0% | 38.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.290 | 0.303 | 0.013 | 50.2% | 19.6% | 9.0% | 86.1% | 35.0% |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.310 | 0.244 | -0.066 | 56.5% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 95.2% | 36.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.303 | 0.285 | -0.018 | 45.0% | 24.6% | 18.4% | 80.0% | 30.8% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.294 | 0.256 | -0.038 | 40.9% | 19.1% | 12.0% | 84.6% | 36.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.311 | 0.314 | 0.003 | 28.1% | 23.3% | 14.5% | 83.6% | 39.7% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.228 | -0.062 | 45.9% | 17.6% | 9.7% | 83.2% | 37.7% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.279 | 0.284 | 0.005 | 42.9% | 22.4% | 8.4% | 88.6% | 34.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.277 | 0.281 | 0.004 | 39.4% | 20.9% | 11.9% | 87.4% | 42.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.279 | 0.259 | -0.020 | 30.3% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 80.1% | 36.2% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.261 | -0.029 | 40.4% | 17.6% | 11.1% | 88.3% | 40.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.288 | 0.300 | 0.012 | 43.2% | 23.2% | 10.9% | 83.2% | 34.7% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.297 | 0.307 | 0.010 | 45.9% | 25.5% | 8.7% | 85.5% | 29.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.012 | 40.3% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 82.3% | 35.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.292 | 0.009 | 49.2% | 24.0% | 6.7% | 83.6% | 28.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.009 | 45.1% | 19.7% | 8.0% | 89.5% | 36.1% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.311 | 0.342 | 0.031 | 45.5% | 21.4% | 10.8% | 91.6% | 27.5% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.279 | 0.223 | -0.056 | 34.0% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 78.9% | 42.1% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 38.7% | 25.0% | 7.8% | 88.0% | 35.1% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.304 | 0.276 | -0.028 | 43.3% | 28.1% | 7.1% | 89.8% | 31.4% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.294 | 0.289 | -0.005 | 38.7% | 19.2% | 11.4% | 81.1% | 39.2% |
Anibal Sanchez has a strong defense and low line drive rate with a mix up in his pitch arsenal. He’s still a bit too far below his team’s BABIP allowed.
Chris Archer actually loses a good bit of defense and a lot of team BABIP (21 points) going from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. This is not a good move for his BABIP, but he should have some regression from a .343 BABIP. His career mark is the same as his new team this year. Hard contact is a problem though and his 23.6 LD% is the highest of his career, but he has a 90 mph aEV. Maybe the Pirates can do something about that.
Jacob deGrom and Patrick Corbin have both strong Z-Contact and Z-O-Swing rates.
Justin Verlander has a tremendous profile and well positioned defense. I have no problem with his BABIP.
Ryan Borucki doesn’t have a terrible profile, but doesn’t have a good one either. He does have a high exit velocity and a poor defense.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.306 | -0.022 | 0.294 | -0.008 | 0.309 | -0.040 | -0.300 | 87.8 | 5.4 | 35.000 | 354 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.296 | -0.007 | 0.346 | 0.025 | 0.286 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 84.2 | 6.0 | 27.900 | 215 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.344 | 0.015 | 0.417 | -0.092 | 0.380 | 0.009 | 0.600 | 88.6 | 8.2 | 39.000 | 159 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.390 | -0.112 | 0.337 | -0.148 | -0.500 | 92 | 8.3 | 47.200 | 36 | ||
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.305 | 0.002 | 0.348 | -0.001 | 0.276 | -0.008 | -0.300 | 87.9 | 5.6 | 37.400 | 195 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.383 | 0.023 | 0.413 | 0.058 | 0.357 | 0.026 | -0.700 | 89.1 | 10.0 | 43.100 | 130 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 0.338 | -0.012 | 0.298 | -0.010 | 0.314 | 0.021 | -1.000 | 90 | 6.2 | 39.500 | 276 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.378 | -0.032 | 0.338 | -0.029 | 0.427 | 0.101 | 0.000 | 90.4 | 7.1 | 39.500 | 309 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.356 | 0.005 | 0.362 | 0.012 | 0.423 | -0.090 | -1.300 | 87.8 | 10.0 | 39.400 | 170 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.302 | 0.029 | 0.311 | 0.006 | 0.282 | -0.020 | -1.600 | 88.1 | 5.3 | 37.900 | 319 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.321 | -0.005 | 0.317 | -0.014 | 0.312 | -0.004 | -0.900 | 86.8 | 5.0 | 32.600 | 337 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.310 | -0.017 | 0.345 | -0.007 | 0.316 | -0.032 | -0.400 | 87.2 | 3.5 | 27.100 | 85 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.264 | -0.020 | 0.260 | -0.001 | 0.280 | -0.035 | 1.100 | 86.2 | 3.2 | 29.100 | 344 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.363 | -0.041 | 0.381 | -0.035 | 0.316 | 0.018 | -1.200 | 88.9 | 8.6 | 36.200 | 232 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.347 | -0.004 | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 0.011 | -1.100 | 88.4 | 9.7 | 40.300 | 320 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.324 | -0.048 | 0.338 | -0.013 | 0.356 | -0.043 | -0.400 | 88.6 | 4.3 | 38.500 | 161 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.345 | -0.016 | 0.325 | 0.008 | 0.368 | -0.033 | 0.200 | 88.8 | 6.0 | 40.600 | 318 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.339 | -0.028 | 0.321 | -0.010 | 0.360 | -0.010 | -0.200 | 89.2 | 7.2 | 42.700 | 293 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.247 | 0.008 | 0.295 | -0.004 | 0.260 | 0.063 | -1.100 | 88 | 6.5 | 32.200 | 354 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.383 | -0.027 | 0.378 | -0.042 | 0.377 | -0.027 | 0.000 | 89.1 | 8.2 | 37.900 | 367 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.304 | -0.028 | 0.280 | -0.004 | 0.371 | 0.032 | -0.500 | 87.9 | 7.9 | 33.700 | 356 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.323 | -0.026 | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.270 | -0.042 | -0.500 | 88.5 | 5.4 | 36.400 | 349 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.307 | -0.010 | 0.340 | -0.016 | 0.323 | 0.011 | 0.500 | 86.9 | 5.7 | 33.900 | 366 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.295 | -0.031 | 0.304 | -0.012 | 0.305 | -0.012 | -0.400 | 88.4 | 6.3 | 37.500 | 336 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.319 | -0.014 | 0.335 | 0.014 | 0.373 | 0.001 | -0.600 | 88.4 | 6.3 | 35.000 | 394 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.332 | -0.023 | 0.358 | 0.018 | 0.336 | -0.037 | -0.300 | 89.2 | 7.4 | 34.700 | 95 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.295 | -0.052 | 0.301 | 0.010 | 0.249 | 0.032 | -1.000 | 89.7 | 9.6 | 39.400 | 94 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.334 | -0.015 | 0.334 | 0.017 | 0.331 | -0.039 | 0.000 | 87.6 | 5.6 | 38.400 | 216 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.344 | -0.028 | 0.343 | -0.018 | 0.418 | -0.014 | -1.300 | 87.7 | 6.7 | 35.100 | 345 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.008 | 0.327 | 0.027 | 0.298 | -0.053 | 0.000 | 87.4 | 6.0 | 34.300 | 283 |
Chris Archer really hasn’t allowed a ton of Barrels considering the 90 mph aEV, hence the elevated BABIP.
Jacob deGrom throws an elevated fastball that comes in hard and looks 1.1 mph harder. Great extension?
Marco Gonzales has the second best xwOBA on the board (.270) over the last month if we remove the guy who faces a few batters before leaving.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We have quite a few high upside arms tonight, but a lack of low priced partners. There are some decent mid-range pivots, who you may be able to pair with higher priced arms if content to sacrifice more offense.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1) may have less strikeout potential against the Braves, but he’s made four starts against them: 25 IP – 2 R – 31 K – 95 BF. That includes the four inning start that sent him to the DL or those numbers might be even better. He seems to have their number the same as he has the rest of the league.
Value Tier Two
Patrick Corbin (3) is a high upside pitcher in a favorable spot and should make a nice pivot against some higher profile pitchers at a lower cost.
Chris Archer (4) has immense upside, but plenty of risk. This isn’t a bad spot for him. He’s been up and down over the last month, but has been above a 15 SwStr% in each of his last three starts, despite striking out just three Orioles last time out. It’ll be interesting to see what the Pirates do with him. Maybe getting out of that division will be enough?
Value Tier Three
Justin Verlander (2) is the top pitcher on the board by all key metrics. He faces a beast of a lineup at this point, but does so in a great park.
Vince Velasquez doesn’t always get it done, but has some of the better overall numbers on the board and a great matchup at a reasonable price tonight.
Anibal Sanchez is in a nice spot in a great park at a reasonable price. He’s struggled in his most recent starts against top of the NL offenses when healthy.
Ryan Borucki might not even be a league average pitcher, but may be able to continue his HR suppression at least one more start with a park upgrade in Seattle. He’s been getting his six innings in and is cheap in a reasonable spot. There really aren’t many usable, low priced SP2 types tonight.
Blaine Hardy is a low priced, potential SP2 complement, nothing more. He’s been competent in most starts this season.
Alex Wood hasn’t had the greatest peripherals over the last month, but with more ground balls and some discrepancy over the contact authority and a low xwOBA. Best park on the board against a lineup that generally punishes LHP, but are far from full strength right now.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Marco Gonzalez is becoming expensive and doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he has a decent matchup in a great park and gets deep into games. It’s tough to argue with the performance.
German Marquez is in a dangerous spot. There’s power in almost every spot of the Milwaukee lineup now, but he has some upside at a marginal price against a team that will strike out.
Jake Odorizzi has increased his strikeout rate and recently had a great start against these Royals. His 9.7% Barrels/BBE is not as much of a concern against an offense without much power.
Trevor Richards might not be a bad pitcher if he can pull down his walk rate, which might seem likely considering elite control at the higher levels on the minors. He has some upside against a strikeout prone offense too.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.