Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, July 27th
A few players have changed uniforms since we last spoke, most notably some left-handed pitching. Though not many notable bats have been traded yet, it is important to mention at this point that season numbers for those both buying and selling may become a bit less meaningful over the next couple of weeks as roster and lineup construction changes. Ideally, I’d be able to do rolling monthly numbers from here on out for opposing offenses, but don’t know where that’s possible. Let’s just see what happens over the next few days.
As opposed to the slim pickings of the last couple of nights (one was a three game slate after a rainout), this is what a real pitching board looks like. We have 30 arms to decipher…starting now.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -8.8 | 5.21 | 5.6 | 45.7% | 1.04 | 5.20 | 5.41 | Rays | 97 | 100 | 84 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.5 | 3.93 | 5.7 | 38.4% | 0.92 | 3.49 | 4.40 | Mariners | 102 | 105 | 69 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | -2.4 | 4.21 | 5.8 | 40.9% | 1.04 | 3.98 | 4.04 | Phillies | 91 | 96 | 129 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 4.9 | 4.62 | 5.3 | 57.2% | 1.03 | 4.80 | 4.55 | Yankees | 123 | 109 | 94 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 5.8 | 3.31 | 6.0 | 44.4% | 1.02 | 3.25 | 2.02 | Tigers | 91 | 78 | 51 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 6.2 | 4.31 | 5.7 | 49.0% | 1.03 | 4.11 | 4.21 | Royals | 81 | 84 | 97 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.38 | 5.4 | 37.6% | 0.91 | 4.41 | 4.18 | Giants | 105 | 95 | 71 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 2 | 3.43 | 6.0 | 44.7% | 1.04 | 3.75 | 1.64 | Orioles | 89 | 83 | 110 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 6 | 2.63 | 6.7 | 41.0% | 1.12 | 2.65 | 1.38 | Twins | 89 | 84 | 100 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.13 | 6.2 | 47.8% | 0.99 | 2.94 | 3.76 | Braves | 89 | 112 | 127 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.8 | 3.78 | 6.3 | 59.7% | 0.89 | 3.60 | 4.13 | Rangers | 83 | 101 | 113 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | -3.1 | 4.21 | 5.9 | 46.8% | 0.97 | 3.96 | 4.66 | Mets | 103 | 94 | 111 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -5.4 | 4.79 | 5.2 | 39.4% | 0.97 | 5.04 | Pirates | 101 | 94 | 149 | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.75 | 5.6 | 50.8% | 1.35 | 4.34 | 5.31 | Athletics | 121 | 103 | 151 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.5 | 4.81 | 5.4 | 46.7% | 1.12 | 4.57 | 6.52 | Red Sox | 122 | 117 | 75 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | -2.7 | 4.49 | 5.6 | 58.1% | 0.91 | 4.31 | 3.92 | Diamondbacks | 85 | 84 | 103 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | -0.9 | 3.91 | 5.2 | 41.4% | 0.93 | 3.71 | 7.40 | Cubs | 100 | 106 | 100 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.4 | 3.91 | 6.4 | 41.1% | 0.91 | 3.83 | 6.01 | Brewers | 93 | 83 | 94 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -4 | 3.78 | 6.0 | 61.4% | 0.96 | 3.76 | 3.72 | White Sox | 95 | 94 | 82 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -4.1 | 2.96 | 6.6 | 34.7% | 0.90 | 3.34 | 4.09 | Marlins | 85 | 89 | 84 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.36 | 5.6 | 41.9% | 1.02 | 4.62 | 4.69 | Indians | 95 | 106 | 137 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.2 | 4.21 | 5.5 | 40.8% | 0.99 | 3.84 | 5.09 | Dodgers | 104 | 110 | 116 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.42 | 5.2 | 56.4% | 0.93 | 4.01 | 4.98 | Cardinals | 90 | 97 | 111 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -8.1 | 3.90 | 5.1 | 44.3% | 1.04 | 4.46 | 2.42 | Reds | 98 | 97 | 69 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.5 | 3.86 | 5.8 | 56.9% | 0.90 | 3.42 | 3.06 | Nationals | 90 | 94 | 112 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.23 | 5.8 | 34.4% | 0.96 | 5.41 | 5.68 | Blue Jays | 94 | 101 | 104 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.33 | 5.8 | 44.7% | 1.35 | 4.59 | 4.55 | Rockies | 89 | 97 | 83 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -1.4 | 4.05 | 5.5 | 38.6% | 0.92 | 4.44 | 3.46 | Angels | 106 | 81 | 141 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 2.8 | 5.22 | 5.3 | 45.5% | 0.89 | 5.25 | 7.13 | Astros | 107 | 110 | 84 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.57 | 6.1 | 44.3% | 0.91 | 3.48 | 2.05 | Padres | 95 | 79 | 64 |
Andrew Heaney has struck out 10 in two of his last four starts, but four or fewer in six of his last 10 as well. The Mariners were one of those double digit performances, but he also set his season low of two against them during that stretch as well. The upside is there if not consistent. He has an ERA with estimators below four with a league average .320 xwOBA and an 86 mph aEV. The Mariners are an above average offense that generally doesn’t strike out a lot (20.9% vs LHP), who play most of their games in negative run environments.
Carlos Carrasco is coming off a strong start in Texas, striking out eight. While his 27 K% this season is just fifth best on the board, his 34.3% over the last month is third. The Tigers have a 78 wRC+ against RHP with just an 8.4 HR/FB, but don’t strike out a ton (22.4%). They have a 51 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB over the last week.
Chase Anderson has allowed 19 HRs this year, but gets a significant park upgrade to perhaps the most power suppressing park in baseball. Over his last eight starts, he has a 25.3 K% with his estimators well more than a half run below his season ones. An extreme fly ball lean (36.5 GB%) has helped compile 8.4% Barrels/BBE despite an 86 mph aEV. This really is an ideal park for him tonight. The Giants have a 15.9 K-BB% and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP, a 19.9 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB over the last week.
Chris Archer struck out 13 Marlins last time out and has a fantastic matchup in Baltimore tonight (83 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP). They have a team 20.0 K-BB% since trading Machado. Of course, the Marlins also scored four runs against him. Nine runs have scored in 13.2 innings since returning from the DL, all against poor offenses. The upside (34.9 K% since returning from the DL) and danger are obvious.
Chris Sale failed to reach double digit strikeouts for the first time in six starts last time out, but has at least nine in eight straight. He has a 43.1 K% over that span, which now allows him to claim the top strikeout rate in the majors (37.5%) by more than two full points. Adding the second best aEV on the board (84.7 mph) gives him a .241 xwOBA that leads the board by 30 points. He’s allowed one run over his last five starts and has completed seven innings 10 times this year. The Twins have an 84 wRC+ and 6.6 HR/FB vs LHP.
Dallas Keuchel has completed seven innings in three of his last four starts and while he still has just a 16.8 K% over that span, he’s been displaying contact dominance in July (52.4 GB%, -10.8 Hard-Soft%). Tonight, he gets the Rangers (83 wRC+, 25.4 K% on the road) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Luke Weaver walked five Cubs last time out, his second disastrous start in four outings, but in between, he struck out 14 of 48 batters, while allowing just three runs over 14 innings to the White Sox and Giants. If we’re looking at the overall numbers, a league average strikeout rate with solid contact management (86.4 mph aEV) makes him a league average arm in a favorable park. The Cubs (106 wRC+ vs RHP) present more problems in plate discipline (11.1 K-BB% vs RHP) than power generation (12.2 HR/FB, 13.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Marcus Stroman has a 3.03 ERA with mid-three estimators and a 63.1 GB% in six starts back from the DL. He’s never managed contact authority well and is below a league average strikeout rate (19%) since returning, but has done enough for a .295 xwOBA over the last month and is in a great spot tonight (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% at home, 18.5 K-BB% vs RHP).
Max Scherzer has a 3.55 ERA over the last month with a 20.9 K% and all of his estimators at least a run higher, but he is coming off a strong start against the Braves (6 IP – 2 R – 7 K) after getting 10 days off. Normally, that’s considered his floor. Perhaps the Marlins (85 wRC+ at home, 89 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP) are just what he needs, but despite going seven innings against them in their more recent meetings, he allowed four runs with just three strikeouts.
Mike Montgomery hasn’t been striking out a lot of batters, but keeps the ball on the ground (53.7%), does not allow a lot of bad contact (2.7% Barrels/BBE is best on the board) and has the top defense in baseball behind him in a favorable park against a marginal offense, while the SwStr% isn’t far below league average.
Nick Pivetta allowed four runs last time out, but struck out nine and has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters faced after striking out just four over two previous starts. His 27.9 K% is actually fourth highest on the board, but he has had some problems with BABIP (.341), which we’ll need to get into later. The Reds are maybe an average offense, but they don’t give away a lot (11.7 K-BB%) in a dangerous park.
Pablo Lopez has struck out 20 of 94 major league batters with 9.1% Barrels/BBE, but just an 85.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV and a 56.9 GB%. The high barrel rate seems like the fluke at this point. He has a league average 13.7 K-BB% in four AAA starts, but a 24.9 K-BB% in eight AA starts this year. He was rushed through the system this year, not even a major prospect, those his only starts above A-ball. Who knows what to expect from here, but we need to acknowledge that the underlying numbers look much better than the 5.09 ERA through four starts. He’s also facing an offense with underlying numbers much better than their results, but in a great park.
Wade LeBlanc did strike out 10 White Sox in his last start, but who hasn’t? He’d accumulated 14 total strikeouts over his previous five starts and faces a predominantly right-handed offense with a 12.2 K-BB% vs LHP, but there are a few interesting things here. The Angels also have just an 81 wRC+ and 11.1 HR/FB vs LHP and his reverse split has allowed him to be effective against this offense over two recent starts (12 IP – 7 H – 3 ER – 3 HR – 3 BB – 9 K). Yeah, there’s also some unsustainable stuff going on there, but he also held them below a 30% hard hit rate in both starts and pitches in a favorable park.
Zack Greinke struck out a season high 13 Rockies in a season high eight innings in his last outing and is in a similarly phenomenal spot tonight (Padres 79 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP, 64 wRC+, 19.1 K-BB% since the break) with a park upgrade. He’s top six on the board with a 26.2 K% and 3.32 SIERA. His .285 xwOBA over the last month is fourth best.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.268 – 79 – 10.4 – 10.5 unearned run rate) is really borderline on all of his numbers here and is a tough omission because he’s done the opposite of what we expect with his strikeout rate. He’s sustained a high rate by increasing his SwStr%. I’m coming around on him, just not in this matchup, though I don’t hate the price on FanDuel ($8.3K).
Madison Bumgarner (.257 – 78.7% – 8.9) walked six last time out and just doesn’t seem like the same guy right now. He is managing contact very well (85.2 mph aEV, 27.4% 95+ mph) and pitches in a great park, but while the Brewers have just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP, the peripherals are much better.
Brad Keller (.282 – 75.4% – 4.0) won’t be Judged, but still faces a plenty dangerous Yankee lineup at Yankee Stadium.
C.C. Sabathia (.278 – 75.4% – 12.7 – 18.8 unearned run rate) has just a 15.7 K% over the last month (though his SwStr% has only dropped a point). While he has the lowest aEV on the board (84.5 mph) and it’s a fine run prevention spot against an offense that strikes out a bit more against LHP (23.2%) his xwOBA is up over 30 points over the last month and there’s just not a ton of upside.
Mike Fiers (.282 – 82.3% – 11.5) gets the Tribe tonight.
Reynaldo Lopez (.269 – 72.4% – 8.1 – 10% unearned run rate)
Sean Manaea (.221 – 76.5% – 13.1) is at Coors.
Kyle Freeland (.270 _ 80.7_ – 10.7) faces the hottest team in the league at Coors.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Luis Perdomo is just above minimum price on DraftKings and faces a below average offense in a great park, but he’s generating neither swings and misses nor ground balls this year and Arizona is probably not nearly as bad as their season numbers when entirely healthy.
Ivan Nova is really cheap on DraftKings ($5.9K), but is unlikely to add much to your team and if you believe at all in momentum, his .391 xwOBA over the last month is worst on the board, the Mets’ team 149 wRC+ since the break is second best. Immediately, I’m thinking about some LH Mets bats in this spot.
Clayton Kershaw has allowed just nine earned runs (12 total) in six starts since returning from the DL, but with just a 22.9 K% (18.3 K-BB% though), 10.8 SwStr% and 38.7 Hard%. That’s not bad, but he’s above $10K ($12.8K on DK) against with a park downgrade against an offense with a 112 wRC+, 20 K%, and 15.1 HR/FB vs LHP.
Anthony DeSclafani is cheap with a near league average strikeout rate in a high upside spot (Phillies 25.8 K% vs RHP), but has allowed 14 HRs in nine starts (8.8% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board).
Jason Vargas has struck out 19 of 42 batters over his last two rehab starts and is so cheap in a power suppressing park for RHBs. However, those two starts took place in low A-ball and he hasn’t recorded an out in the sixth inning all year.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 14.2% | Season | 17.9% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 12.5% | Home | 14.7% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | L14Days | 9.1% | 4.6% | 10.5% | |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 7.5% | 17.7% | 19.1% | Season | 23.6% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 15.1% | Home | 25.5% | 6.9% | 14.5% | 18.9% | L14Days | 19.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 27.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.1% | 18.9% | 24.1% | Season | 20.0% | 7.3% | 23.7% | 36.5% | Home | 22.1% | 7.9% | 26.5% | 33.6% | L14Days | 24.3% | 8.1% | 36.4% | 54.2% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 14.2% | Season | 15.1% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 14.2% | Road | 13.0% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 16.4% | Season | 27.0% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 23.6% | Road | 28.0% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 15.5% | L14Days | 37.0% | 3.7% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 4.0% | Season | 17.9% | 6.7% | 12.7% | 4.8% | Home | 20.5% | 6.4% | 14.4% | 5.9% | L14Days | 8.7% | 8.7% | 33.3% | 26.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 14.9% | Season | 19.6% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 17.2% | Road | 21.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% | L14Days | 23.3% | 9.3% | 18.2% | -3.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 23.0% | Season | 25.6% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 25.1% | Road | 25.8% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 24.0% | L14Days | 41.7% | 2.1% | 20.0% | 34.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 34.6% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | Season | 37.5% | 5.9% | 9.7% | -1.8% | Home | 34.8% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 5.6% | L14Days | 42.9% | |||
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 4.4% | 14.5% | 4.8% | Season | 25.1% | 5.1% | 13.8% | 8.3% | Road | 26.0% | 4.1% | 15.2% | -0.4% | L14Days | 23.2% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 6.9% | 15.8% | 2.3% | Season | 17.8% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 3.1% | Home | 18.6% | 7.1% | 15.7% | -4.3% | L14Days | 17.7% | 3.9% | -12.5% | |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 17.7% | Season | 17.5% | 4.1% | 15.8% | 17.2% | Home | 15.9% | 3.4% | 10.3% | 13.4% | L14Days | 10.9% | 4.4% | 7.7% | |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 16.3% | Season | 17.8% | 7.8% | 22.1% | Road | 17.9% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 18.5% | L14Days | |||||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 8.3% | Season | 19.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | Home | 18.4% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 4.3% | L14Days | 14.6% | 8.3% | 34.3% | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 11.3% | Season | 21.9% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 17.5% | Road | 21.2% | 11.5% | 17.3% | 15.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 16.6% | Season | 16.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 22.3% | Home | 17.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 18.3% | L14Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 24.4% | 7.9% | 14.2% | 12.7% | Season | 21.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 14.9% | Home | 23.2% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 16.0% | L14Days | 8.7% | 21.7% | 6.2% | |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 6.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | Season | 20.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 14.6% | Home | 23.7% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 22.0% | L14Days | 23.3% | 20.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 12.6% | Season | 18.6% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 18.7% | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | 19.7% | 15.1% | L14Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | -3.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.4% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | Season | 34.3% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | Road | 33.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | L14Days | 23.5% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 14.2% | Season | 17.5% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 18.6% | Home | 20.3% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 17.5% | L14Days | 14.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 13.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.5% | Season | 28.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 13.0% | Home | 25.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 14.2% | L14Days | 17.2% | 10.3% | -14.3% | |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 8.5% | Season | 14.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 5.7% | Road | 19.5% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 8.5% | L14Days | 12.5% | 8.3% | 10.5% | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 18.4% | Season | 27.9% | 6.9% | 14.1% | 16.8% | Road | 21.5% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 22.2% | L14Days | 32.0% | 2.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 12.2% | Season | 21.3% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 12.2% | Home | 21.6% | 7.8% | 25.0% | 11.1% | L14Days | 27.3% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 7.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | Season | 16.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 12.6% | Home | 16.4% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.2% | L14Days | 14.8% | 7.4% | 13.6% | 14.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 20.1% | Season | 16.9% | 4.6% | 13.1% | 23.4% | Road | 18.0% | 6.4% | 13.8% | 22.6% | L14Days | 13.0% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 12.8% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 5.2% | 13.6% | 11.9% | Season | 19.4% | 4.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | Road | 17.4% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 13.5% | L14Days | 28.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 17.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 12.8% | Season | 13.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 19.4% | Road | 14.9% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 12.9% | L14Days | 4.4% | 17.4% | 16.7% | |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 19.4% | Season | 26.2% | 4.6% | 13.6% | 25.7% | Road | 24.5% | 5.1% | 15.5% | 11.9% | L14Days | 37.0% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 15.1% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 15.9% | RH | 22.7% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 15.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 4.5% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.1% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 18.2% | LH | 20.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 8.6% | RH | 25.8% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.6% | 27.0% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.8% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 22.1% | RH | 23.4% | 9.0% | 15.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 15.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 24.2% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 17.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 19.9% |
| Royals | Road | 21.6% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 17.4% | LH | 23.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 18.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 20.6% |
| Giants | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 20.6% | RH | 23.8% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 19.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 13.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.3% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 10.0% | RH | 24.5% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 5.8% | 16.4% | 17.2% |
| Twins | Road | 21.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 16.2% | LH | 23.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% |
| Braves | Home | 20.4% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 20.1% | LH | 20.0% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 21.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 19.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.4% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 16.3% | LH | 23.4% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 17.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.9% | 18.3% | 24.5% |
| Mets | Road | 21.6% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 19.7% | RH | 21.7% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.4% | LH | 22.0% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.6% | 20.5% | 30.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.7% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 23.1% | LH | 23.0% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 24.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 27.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 17.1% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 20.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 16.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 17.5% | RH | 24.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 19.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 17.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 15.7% | RH | 20.9% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 13.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 7.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.7% | 12.2% | LH | 21.5% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 20.9% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 21.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.9% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 5.1% | RH | 25.3% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.8% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 18.6% | RH | 23.0% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 33.6% |
| Indians | Road | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 20.0% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 25.2% | L7Days | 9.9% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 30.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 19.8% | RH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 18.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 22.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 24.0% | LH | 22.5% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 19.7% | L7Days | 16.0% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.2% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 24.3% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 20.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 16.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 14.7% | RH | 21.1% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.6% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.3% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 19.0% | RH | 23.1% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 14.8% | LH | 21.5% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 17.6% | L7Days | 26.3% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| Angels | Home | 21.4% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 21.0% | LH | 21.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 16.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 11.7% | 21.1% | 24.9% |
| Astros | Home | 20.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 11.0% | RH | 19.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.0% | L7Days | 17.1% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 15.0% |
| Padres | Home | 24.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 20.9% | RH | 25.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 17.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | -0.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 17.9% | 6.8% | 2.63 | 16.5% | 4.7% | 3.51 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 23.6% | 11.7% | 2.02 | 26.4% | 13.4% | 1.97 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 20.0% | 7.8% | 2.56 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.27 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 15.1% | 8.0% | 1.89 | 14.4% | 6.1% | 2.36 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.99 | 34.3% | 15.6% | 2.20 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 17.9% | 10.2% | 1.75 | 15.7% | 9.2% | 1.71 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.23 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.18 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.6% | 13.5% | 1.90 | 34.9% | 17.3% | 2.02 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 37.5% | 16.0% | 2.34 | 45.8% | 17.4% | 2.63 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 25.1% | 11.1% | 2.26 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 1.98 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 17.8% | 8.8% | 2.02 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 1.83 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 1.56 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 17.8% | 10.5% | 1.70 | |||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.24 | 14.5% | 7.6% | 1.91 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 2.06 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.28 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 2.24 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.15 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 1.92 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.27 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.92 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 1.75 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.3% | 16.7% | 2.05 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 1.58 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.08 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 2.23 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.2% | 10.5% | 2.69 | 27.3% | 13.5% | 2.02 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 14.8% | 9.3% | 1.59 | 11.5% | 8.2% | 1.40 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 27.9% | 12.0% | 2.33 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.97 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.97 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 16.4% | 8.6% | 1.91 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 2.27 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 16.9% | 10.1% | 1.67 | 11.2% | 10.3% | 1.09 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 19.4% | 9.4% | 2.06 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 1.71 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 13.0% | 5.1% | 2.55 | 12.5% | 4.8% | 2.60 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 26.2% | 11.4% | 2.30 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 2.17 |
Max Scherzer has a 13.2 SwStr% over the last month that’s still well below his season rate, but well above the support line for a 20.9 K% over that span.
Mike Montgomery has an 18.1 career K% with a 9.4 SwStr%. He should be in line to match that.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.40 | 4.85 | 0.45 | 4.40 | 0.27 | 4.83 | 0.43 | 6.38 | 1.98 | 3.38 | 4.57 | 1.19 | 4.35 | 0.97 | 3.66 | 0.28 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.66 | 3.90 | 0.24 | 3.66 | 0.24 | 3.79 | 0.13 | 3.73 | 0.07 | 4.25 | 3.78 | -0.47 | 3.79 | -0.46 | 4.27 | 0.02 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 5.40 | 4.38 | -1.02 | 5.40 | -0.95 | 6.22 | 0.82 | 5.67 | 0.27 | 6.49 | 4.20 | -2.29 | 4.37 | -2.12 | 6.77 | 0.28 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.20 | 4.62 | 1.42 | 3.20 | 1.15 | 3.56 | 0.36 | 6.01 | 2.81 | 5.24 | 5.26 | 0.02 | 4.7 | -0.54 | 3.97 | -1.27 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 4.03 | 3.32 | -0.71 | 4.03 | -0.71 | 3.43 | -0.60 | 3.46 | -0.57 | 3.00 | 2.32 | -0.68 | 2.27 | -0.73 | 3.16 | 0.16 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.51 | 4.45 | 0.94 | 3.51 | 1.02 | 4.55 | 1.04 | 5.12 | 1.61 | 4.56 | 4.80 | 0.24 | 4.85 | 0.29 | 5.53 | 0.97 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 3.81 | 4.72 | 0.91 | 3.81 | 0.99 | 5.16 | 1.35 | 5.02 | 1.21 | 2.05 | 4.10 | 2.05 | 3.99 | 1.94 | 3.73 | 1.68 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 4.30 | 3.65 | -0.65 | 4.30 | -0.79 | 3.51 | -0.79 | 4.33 | 0.03 | 4.61 | 2.33 | -2.28 | 1.63 | -2.98 | 1.62 | -2.99 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.13 | 2.36 | 0.23 | 2.13 | 0.27 | 2.12 | -0.01 | 1.92 | -0.21 | 0.35 | 1.43 | 1.08 | 1.3 | 0.95 | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2.64 | 3.37 | 0.73 | 2.64 | 0.45 | 3.22 | 0.58 | 3.58 | 0.94 | 2.12 | 3.47 | 1.35 | 3.28 | 1.16 | 2.89 | 0.77 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.60 | 4.00 | 0.40 | 3.60 | 0.08 | 3.66 | 0.06 | 3.69 | 0.09 | 2.73 | 4.31 | 1.58 | 3.85 | 1.12 | 2.71 | -0.02 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.28 | 4.19 | -0.09 | 4.28 | -0.18 | 4.57 | 0.29 | 4.84 | 0.56 | 5.14 | 4.97 | -0.17 | 5.01 | -0.13 | 6.45 | 1.31 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 8.60 | 4.73 | -3.87 | 8.60 | -3.53 | 6.61 | -1.99 | 5.61 | -2.99 | |||||||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.28 | 4.48 | 1.20 | 3.28 | 1.08 | 4.11 | 0.83 | 4.29 | 1.01 | 2.45 | 5.10 | 2.65 | 5.1 | 2.65 | 4.15 | 1.70 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 5.23 | 4.76 | -0.47 | 5.23 | -0.82 | 4.69 | -0.54 | 6.91 | 1.68 | 7.15 | 4.68 | -2.47 | 4.38 | -2.77 | 5.59 | -1.56 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 6.99 | 5.05 | -1.94 | 6.99 | -1.97 | 4.66 | -2.33 | 8.14 | 1.15 | 6.17 | 5.42 | -0.75 | 5.4 | -0.77 | 5.17 | -1.00 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.79 | 4.39 | -0.40 | 4.79 | -0.51 | 4.11 | -0.68 | 4.35 | -0.44 | 5.56 | 4.42 | -1.14 | 4.3 | -1.26 | 4.22 | -1.34 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 3.19 | 4.63 | 1.44 | 3.19 | 1.30 | 4.00 | 0.81 | 4.66 | 1.47 | 3.18 | 4.66 | 1.48 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 3.83 | 0.65 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 5.42 | 4.04 | -1.38 | 5.42 | -1.61 | 4.16 | -1.26 | 4.58 | -0.84 | 3.52 | 3.96 | 0.44 | 3.77 | 0.25 | 3.98 | 0.46 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.43 | 2.76 | 0.33 | 2.43 | 0.72 | 2.76 | 0.33 | 2.12 | -0.31 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 1.00 | 4.97 | 1.42 | 4.62 | 1.07 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 3.49 | 4.49 | 1.00 | 3.49 | 1.29 | 4.58 | 1.09 | 4.75 | 1.26 | 1.62 | 4.37 | 2.75 | 4.61 | 2.99 | 3.13 | 1.51 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.85 | 3.75 | 0.90 | 2.85 | 0.79 | 3.38 | 0.53 | 3.00 | 0.15 | 5.40 | 3.62 | -1.78 | 3.76 | -1.64 | 4.23 | -1.17 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.73 | 4.59 | 0.86 | 3.73 | 0.80 | 4.16 | 0.43 | 4.69 | 0.96 | 4.71 | 5.33 | 0.62 | 5.1 | 0.39 | 4.78 | 0.07 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.69 | 3.37 | -1.32 | 4.69 | -1.33 | 3.55 | -1.14 | 3.03 | -1.66 | 7.79 | 3.57 | -4.22 | 3.65 | -4.14 | 4.95 | -2.84 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5.09 | 3.86 | -1.23 | 5.09 | -1.35 | 4.73 | -0.36 | 4.49 | -0.60 | 5.09 | 3.86 | -1.23 | 3.74 | -1.35 | 4.73 | -0.36 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.13 | 5.30 | 1.17 | 4.13 | 1.49 | 4.78 | 0.65 | 6.19 | 2.06 | 5.70 | 5.50 | -0.20 | 5.73 | 0.03 | 5.39 | -0.31 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.38 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 3.38 | 0.89 | 4.34 | 0.96 | 3.88 | 0.50 | 3.34 | 5.01 | 1.67 | 4.71 | 1.37 | 4.64 | 1.30 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 3.44 | 4.18 | 0.74 | 3.44 | 0.90 | 4.12 | 0.68 | 3.44 | 0.00 | 3.86 | 4.14 | 0.28 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 4.78 | 0.92 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 7.18 | 5.40 | -1.78 | 7.18 | -2.11 | 5.20 | -1.98 | 8.03 | 0.85 | 4.56 | 4.71 | 0.15 | 4.4 | -0.16 | 3.71 | -0.85 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 3.05 | 3.32 | 0.27 | 3.05 | 0.22 | 3.40 | 0.35 | 2.35 | -0.70 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 1.85 | 2.98 | 1.64 | 2.00 | 0.66 |
Carlos Carrasco has a .312 BABIP that may be a bit high, but is not much above his team defense. His 72.7 LOB% may be a bit low for his strikeout rate as well, but both numbers are very close to his career rates.
Chase Anderson still has .252 BABIP and 86.5 LOB% over his last eight starts, a .238 BABIP for the season.
Chris Archer has a .347 BABIP.
Marcus Stroman still has a 61.7 LOB% for the season, but 74.7% in six starts since returning.
Mike Montgomery has a 9.5 HR/FB.
Nick Piveatta has a .341 BABIP a 68.7 LOB%.
Pablo Lopez has a .242 BABIP through four starts, but just a 65.4 LOB% and 22.2 HR/FB despite what looks to be quality contact management.
Wade LeBlanc has a 79.9 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.318 | 0.313 | -0.005 | 41.0% | 23.8% | 8.5% | 91.2% | 38.2% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.291 | 0.273 | -0.018 | 40.1% | 22.7% | 12.6% | 84.1% | 38.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.297 | 0.261 | -0.036 | 38.6% | 20.7% | 3.4% | 89.3% | 36.9% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.308 | 0.282 | -0.026 | 57.2% | 19.5% | 10.0% | 91.1% | 35.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.296 | 0.312 | 0.016 | 42.2% | 22.4% | 7.7% | 87.6% | 29.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.282 | 0.278 | -0.004 | 45.3% | 19.9% | 11.8% | 89.2% | 33.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.277 | 0.238 | -0.039 | 36.5% | 21.3% | 12.6% | 85.9% | 39.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.274 | 0.347 | 0.073 | 44.1% | 24.4% | 10.0% | 84.2% | 38.4% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.294 | 0.277 | -0.017 | 44.9% | 18.7% | 14.6% | 77.0% | 26.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.290 | 0.285 | -0.005 | 47.5% | 23.3% | 9.2% | 87.7% | 38.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.276 | 0.286 | 0.010 | 53.9% | 22.7% | 11.3% | 89.3% | 33.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.293 | -0.007 | 45.7% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 90.2% | 38.6% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.300 | 0.367 | 0.067 | 36.2% | 22.8% | 9.6% | 86.5% | 29.3% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.270 | -0.035 | 46.6% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 88.1% | 35.2% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.309 | 0.327 | 0.018 | 51.8% | 22.9% | 11.3% | 84.4% | 43.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 0.304 | 0.381 | 0.077 | 40.3% | 28.7% | 10.0% | 85.4% | 39.1% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.303 | 0.013 | 40.8% | 22.9% | 14.9% | 84.9% | 42.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.295 | 0.257 | -0.038 | 43.2% | 20.6% | 14.3% | 90.4% | 31.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.307 | 0.315 | 0.008 | 61.7% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 89.5% | 33.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.292 | 0.262 | -0.030 | 35.2% | 16.2% | 17.6% | 77.4% | 35.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.292 | 0.282 | -0.010 | 39.4% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 88.0% | 36.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.280 | 0.268 | -0.012 | 43.1% | 21.2% | 14.6% | 83.7% | 36.2% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.276 | 0.273 | -0.003 | 53.7% | 17.5% | 9.5% | 87.0% | 30.7% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.341 | 0.046 | 45.0% | 18.5% | 10.1% | 83.0% | 35.5% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.242 | -0.051 | 56.9% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 85.7% | 25.8% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.269 | -0.022 | 34.0% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 86.4% | 45.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.221 | -0.054 | 44.0% | 21.0% | 8.8% | 89.0% | 33.5% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 36.4% | 21.0% | 7.3% | 86.3% | 27.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.306 | 0.311 | 0.005 | 47.6% | 22.6% | 5.4% | 94.9% | 39.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.282 | 0.284 | 0.002 | 41.3% | 23.6% | 12.0% | 82.8% | 27.2% |
Chase Anderson is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a strong defense and the highest IFFB% of his career. This is interesting.
Chris Archer has a 24.4 LD% and his 89.8 mph aEV is second highest on the board. News Break: he allows too much hard contact.
Chris Sale has a BABIP profile that’s elite in just above every category.
Max Scherzer has a fantastic profile and hasn’t been above a .270 BABIP since 2014.
Nick Pivetta has a terrible defense behind him, but he’s still 46 points above it with an 18.5 LD% and 83 Z-Contact% with no real flaws in this profile. To make things even more perplexing, his 87.9 mph aEV is around average and most of the hard contact ends up in barrels (8.6%), which correlates much more with HRs or power than BABIP. This BABIP makes absolutely no sense.
Pablo Lopez appears to be doing everything right by keeping the ball on the ground, generating a few popups and limiting line drives with batters swinging at his pitches. That’s not to say he’ll continue with a BABIP below .250, but the profile is great so far.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.366 | -0.012 | 0.341 | -0.017 | 0.323 | -0.039 | -1.700 | 88.7 | nd | 36.900 | 336 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.320 | -0.027 | 0.299 | -0.035 | 0.327 | -0.026 | -1.400 | 86 | 7.8 | 35.000 | 306 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.351 | 0.007 | 0.319 | 0.055 | 0.356 | 0.006 | 0.600 | 89.1 | 8.8 | 39.200 | 148 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.322 | -0.041 | 0.307 | -0.011 | 0.327 | -0.054 | -0.600 | 88 | 3.7 | 32.600 | 218 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.308 | -0.011 | 0.284 | -0.023 | 0.300 | 0.019 | -0.100 | 89.3 | 6.8 | 37.800 | 296 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.306 | 0.009 | 0.310 | -0.002 | 0.337 | 0.006 | 0.700 | 84.5 | 5.4 | 26.900 | 316 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.347 | -0.038 | 0.299 | -0.022 | 0.336 | -0.039 | -1.400 | 86 | 8.4 | 29.100 | 309 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.337 | -0.013 | 0.322 | 0.011 | 0.295 | 0.035 | -1.000 | 89.8 | 6.3 | 38.800 | 255 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.241 | -0.003 | 0.260 | 0.008 | 0.186 | -0.002 | -1.100 | 84.7 | 7.3 | 27.800 | 288 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.296 | -0.013 | 0.261 | 0.003 | 0.264 | -0.006 | -0.100 | 86.1 | 5.7 | 33.200 | 229 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.302 | -0.009 | 0.290 | -0.021 | 0.283 | -0.050 | -0.400 | 87.3 | 4.3 | 34.300 | 417 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.356 | -0.022 | 0.332 | -0.038 | 0.391 | 0.011 | -1.000 | 89.5 | 8.6 | 40.600 | 360 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.372 | 0.056 | 0.355 | 0.005 | -0.800 | 85.4 | 8.4 | 29.800 | 131 | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.318 | -0.021 | 0.299 | 0.017 | 0.326 | -0.058 | 0.500 | 85.7 | 6.1 | 28.300 | 361 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.341 | 0.002 | 0.327 | 0.014 | 0.353 | 0.016 | -0.200 | 87.9 | 6.1 | 38.900 | 280 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 0.356 | 0.032 | 0.340 | 0.007 | 0.344 | 0.015 | -1.100 | 91.1 | 4.6 | 48.500 | 130 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.334 | -0.015 | 0.323 | -0.003 | 0.293 | 0.024 | -0.600 | 86.4 | 5.6 | 32.800 | 323 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.319 | -0.030 | 0.299 | -0.027 | 0.336 | -0.053 | 0.000 | 85.2 | 7.0 | 27.400 | 157 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.345 | -0.021 | 0.333 | -0.006 | 0.295 | -0.008 | -1.100 | 89.4 | 8.3 | 41.700 | 230 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.271 | -0.015 | 0.264 | -0.023 | 0.325 | -0.018 | -0.700 | 86.2 | 8.4 | 34.100 | 320 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.344 | -0.023 | 0.355 | -0.027 | 0.360 | -0.101 | -0.800 | 88.9 | 9.5 | 37.300 | 359 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.294 | -0.017 | 0.319 | -0.014 | 0.305 | -0.002 | -0.400 | 88 | 7.4 | 33.300 | 270 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.321 | -0.028 | 0.292 | -0.034 | 0.369 | -0.022 | -0.400 | 86.1 | 2.7 | 36.100 | 263 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.308 | 0.015 | 0.352 | 0.012 | 0.323 | 0.079 | 0.100 | 87.9 | 8.6 | 36.400 | 280 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.342 | -0.041 | 0.339 | -0.019 | 0.342 | -0.041 | 0.700 | 85.9 | 9.1 | 28.800 | 66 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.358 | -0.039 | 0.349 | -0.068 | 0.381 | -0.030 | -0.300 | 88.2 | 7.4 | 34.600 | 364 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.340 | -0.068 | 0.349 | -0.029 | 0.322 | -0.044 | 0.300 | 88.4 | 8.5 | 39.100 | 402 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.339 | -0.040 | 0.367 | -0.033 | 0.324 | -0.030 | -0.200 | 87.1 | 8.5 | 36.400 | 294 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.387 | -0.020 | 0.365 | -0.009 | 0.390 | -0.081 | -0.600 | 87.8 | 5.6 | 37.100 | 124 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.321 | -0.037 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 0.285 | -0.059 | -0.800 | 88.1 | 7.8 | 35.500 | 358 |
For the second consecutive posting, I’m noticing a disconnect between a lot of exit velocities and barrel rates. Nowhere is this more apparent than Max Scherzer, though this is something that can occasionally happen with either extreme ground ball or fly ball pitchers, of which he is obviously the latter.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It feels as if about two-thirds of the board is bunched together in a gray area tonight. Tier separation is very difficult as are some omissions. Even though we have top and second tier values, it doesn’t really feel like those guys are far separated from the fourth tier guys tonight, so take those tier choices with a larger grain of salt than usual. There is no clear great value tonight, despite a lot of strong pitchers. The good news is that the top arms don’t seem to be over-priced tonight (probably because they’re so good it may not even be possible).
Value Tier One
Luke Weaver is just too cheap here. He struggled against the Cubs in his last start and could do so again against a well-disciplined team, but a league average pitcher in a marginal park adjusted matchup costs $6.5K here. That said, I’m probably heavier on someone like Chase Anderson as my DK SP2.
Zack Greinke (3) is above $10K on both sites, but is coming off his best start of the season (and maybe in years) and finds himself in a great spot in San Diego.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman costs $8K or less, seems more like his old self since returning and should see a strikeout uptick in a great spot tonight.
Chris Sale (1t) is currently the best pitcher on the planet. He’s in about as favorable a spot as is possible at Fenway and costs a fortune, but is only second most expensive on DraftKings.
Max Scherzer (1t) did not hold up his end last time he faced the Marlins and the numbers over the last month are a bit concerning, but he came out of the break decently against a contact prone offense, so perhaps he just needed a small break (though he did start the AS game). The upside is that perhaps recent performance and Sale on the slate will lower his ownership.
Chase Anderson has been striking out more batters and pitches in a great park against a below average offense with some upside tonight. He costs just $5.5K on DraftKings where I don’t see how he’s not the top option to pair with an elite arm. He’s a bit more among the rest of the pack for $1.8K more on FanDuel.
Pablo Lopez has great underlying numbers and just doesn’t seem to deserve his results so far. He’s cheap, in a great park against a perplexing offense in itself. I have no idea where to place him today, but do have some interest at a low cost.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (5t) offers a lot of upside in a great spot for less than $10K, but it is a dangerous park and he’s shown the ability to struggle with run prevention even in tremendous spots.
Dallas Keuchel (5t) is a bit dangerous in that he’s turned into a low strikeout pitcher at a cost above $9K, but he pitches in one of the best parks, has returned to contact dominance and does have some additional strikeout upside in this matchup.
Nick Pivetta is a dangerous arm in a dangerous park (call this the dangerous tier), but he’s got the fourth highest strikeout rate on the board with no support for his current BABIP.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Andrew Heaney isn’t incredibly cheap or in a very generous spot, but he generally limits damage and does have some upside.
Carlos Carrasco (4) is in a very comfortable spot against a poor offense, though they don’t strike out a ton. He will toss in a few duds occasionally, but has generally been good for around six innings with six to eight strikeouts this year with a possibility for more.
Mike Montgomery really has everything at least slightly favoring him (contact, park, defense) except the strikeouts and he has the upside to see at least a few more of those.
Wade LeBlanc just won’t go away. He’s not dominant or anything, but has been fine, is affordable, is pitching in a favorable park and his reverse split should help him again against the Angels.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.