Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, July 6th
Strong pitching performances seemed difficult to come by this week. This 14 game slate could be interesting though. All of the top pitchers seem to be in strong spots, not something we’ve seen a lot of lately. This will probably make it tough to get away from the high priced pitchers, but more favorably, could variate ownership as well.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 2.6 | 4.72 | 5.5 | 43.0% | 1.02 | 4.90 | 4.94 | Tigers | 96 | 82 | 86 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 6.6 | 3.41 | 6.0 | 44.6% | 1.10 | 3.36 | Athletics | 118 | 108 | 125 | |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 5.4 | 2.73 | 6.7 | 41.1% | 1.04 | 2.54 | 1.25 | Royals | 82 | 83 | 58 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.52 | 5.5 | 32.2% | 1.00 | 4.64 | 3.91 | Nationals | 96 | 95 | 130 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -6.3 | 3.98 | 5.5 | 40.7% | 0.91 | 3.48 | 3.86 | Cardinals | 99 | 96 | 114 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -8.2 | 4.11 | 5.8 | 34.7% | 1.04 | 4.26 | 3.18 | Twins | 94 | 92 | 97 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.1 | 4.45 | 5.7 | 46.9% | 0.91 | 4.00 | 4.34 | Rockies | 84 | 77 | 85 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 2.8 | 3.79 | 4.7 | 39.8% | 0.92 | 4.02 | 3.23 | Dodgers | 111 | 112 | 155 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 7.2 | 2.94 | 5.4 | 32.1% | 1.04 | 2.31 | 3.15 | Braves | 107 | 95 | 93 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.6 | 4.19 | 5.5 | 45.3% | 0.91 | 4.18 | 3.04 | Mariners | 107 | 107 | 108 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.33 | 5.8 | 47.4% | 1.00 | 4.03 | 7.77 | Marlins | 85 | 75 | 100 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -5.2 | 3.34 | 6.4 | 45.4% | 0.91 | 2.86 | 3.43 | Rays | 91 | 96 | 80 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 4.9 | 4.62 | 5.7 | 38.5% | 1.04 | 4.95 | 5.80 | Red Sox | 100 | 117 | 102 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | -3.4 | 3.88 | 4.8 | 47.4% | 1.00 | 3.79 | 4.34 | Diamondbacks | 89 | 105 | 82 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | -1.7 | 4.70 | 4.6 | 49.1% | 0.91 | 4.90 | 5.77 | Giants | 109 | 99 | 66 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 2.9 | 5.01 | 5.1 | 32.5% | 1.02 | 5.04 | 3.93 | Rangers | 85 | 92 | 123 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.66 | 5.1 | 39.7% | 0.92 | 4.08 | 2.54 | Angels | 100 | 107 | 86 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | -0.6 | 4.78 | 5.4 | 46.4% | 1.04 | 4.70 | 3.90 | Orioles | 75 | 82 | 74 |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 3.2 | 3.44 | 5.7 | 58.4% | 0.89 | 3.14 | 2.60 | White Sox | 94 | 95 | 118 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.8 | 4.19 | 5.6 | 41.1% | 1.04 | 4.50 | 4.19 | Brewers | 93 | 96 | 93 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 10 | 4.28 | 5.2 | 57.2% | 1.01 | 4.70 | 4.34 | Reds | 96 | 107 | 110 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -9.5 | 3.94 | 5.1 | 43.5% | 0.97 | 4.56 | 4.17 | Pirates | 99 | 92 | 91 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 2.4 | 4.88 | 5.5 | 54.8% | 1.10 | 4.47 | 3.74 | Indians | 126 | 106 | 118 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5.9 | 5.02 | 5.7 | 35.0% | 0.89 | 5.54 | 4.68 | Astros | 107 | 113 | 86 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.1 | 3.68 | 1.4 | 36.8% | 0.91 | 4.93 | 3.90 | Mets | 82 | 98 | 105 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -2.9 | 4.51 | 5.4 | 49.0% | 1.01 | 4.35 | 3.94 | Yankees | 105 | 111 | 148 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 4.5 | 4.23 | 5.5 | 51.2% | 1.01 | 3.54 | 4.54 | Blue Jays | 102 | 100 | 83 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | -5.1 | 4.62 | 5.4 | 45.5% | 0.97 | 4.38 | 3.59 | Phillies | 87 | 94 | 80 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -1.1 | 4.45 | 5.3 | 41.3% | 1.01 | 5.23 | 3.63 | Cubs | 114 | 109 | 183 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 1.6 | 4.00 | 5.7 | 53.7% | 1.00 | 3.60 | 5.39 | Padres | 71 | 82 | 93 |
Chris Sale tops the board with a 36.1 K% (more than five starts) and 15.9 SwStr%. He also has the lowest SIERA on the board (2.48) along with the best xwOBA (.252), aEV (84.7 mph) and 95+ mph EV (28.6%). He’s completed seven innings with double digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including the Yankees and Mariners in his last two. The Royals may slightly lower his strikeout upside, but they do whiff more against LHP (21.9%) and are a top run prevention matchup (< 85 wRC+ on the road and vs LHP, 58 wRC+, 20.6 K-BB%, 6.1 HR/FB last seven days).
Dereck Rodriguez has completed six innings with two runs or less in four of his six starts this season with league average swing and miss stuff (20.4 K%, 10.1 SwStr%). They’ve almost all been great spots either at home, against inferior offenses or both, but that’s somewhat the case again here too. The Cardinals may be a bit more formidable than the Marlins or Padres (both teams he’s faced), but they still have sub-100 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP and this is one the most favorable pitcher’s parks in baseball. He did have a 19.8 K-BB% in nine AAA starts this season too, though just a 10.9 K-BB% in 13 AA starts for the Twins’ organization last year and is already 26.
Felix Hernandez hasn’t experiences any great resurgence. The best we can say is that his estimators are below four with an 11.8 SwStr% and 51.2 GB% over the last month. What we really love is the matchup. He’s facing the Rockies (77 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP, 18.9 K-BB% last seven days) in a great park.
Felix Pena has started three games for the Angels. The 28 year-old, who had 38 previous major league relief appearances and no starts in his career has struck out 17 of 62 batters with an 11+ SwStr% in each of those three starts. The opponents have been Arizona, Toronto and Baltimore, so the Dodgers (112 wRC+, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP, 155 wRC+, 21 HR/FB last seven days) are a major step up in competition and things will not remain this rosy with a 93.2 mph aEV and 54% 95+ mph EV.
Freddy Peralta is someone I’ve resisted supporting as he’s only generated a 37.7 K% (best on the board) and 14.1 SwStr% with a 2.93 SIERA, .254 xwOBA and 85.8 mph aEV through five starts. All compare extremely favorably with tonight’s top pitchers and he’s done all this throwing a 91 mph fastball nearly 80% of the time and the best way to describe the locations of that fastball might be “all over the place”. What the hell is he doing then? The key words might be extension and deception. Let’s reference a listed stat here that we’ve rarely had the opportunity to mention in the notes here, but his extension has allowed him to generate 1.5 extra mph on his fastball. Not in reality, but in perception. This is the highest Effective Velocity increase on the board and one of just two more than a mile per hour in the positive. I certainly worry that this might be something batters get used to and figure out with more repetition, but the Braves haven’t seen him yet and have been a below average offense vs RHP (95 wRC+), mostly due to a lack of power (11 HR/FB), but not strikeouts (20.2%).
German Marquez has allowed more than two ERs in just one of his road starts this season and he struck out eight Phillies in that start. He has some very similar peripherals in his career home or road (13.3 K-BB%), but the difference is in a drop from a 19.4 HR/FB at Coors to a 12.8 HR/FB on the road. His .307 xwOBA for the season has the lowest negative gap (that’s good) on the board (31 points) from his actual wOBA. He faces a tough offense tonight (107 wRC+, 20.3 K% vs RHP), but with a massively favorable park shift.
Jacob deGrom has allowed six ERs over his last 12 innings, striking out 14 of 52 batters, after a stretch of seven straight starts of seven innings or more with at least seven strikeouts. He’s allowed six HRs this season, one in each of his last two starts. Even his bad is not really bad and his five point reduction in strikeout rate over the last month (31.5% season to 26.3% last 30 days) does not come with any decline in his 15.5 SwStr%. His 2.85 SIERA and .261 xwOBA are both behind only Sale among those with more than five starts. He’s one of the top contact managers on the board (86.5 mph aEV, 3.5% Barrels/BBE). He’s in a great spot at home against the DH-less Rays (16.3 K-BB% on the road, 14.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 26.2 K%, 4.9 HR/FB last seven days).
John Gant has walked eight of his last 49 batters with just six strikeouts, which is a concern with the walk rate reaching 10.2% for the season now and 10.3% for his major league career (106.1 innings). He’s generally misses enough bats to be useful though (20.5 K%, 11.4 SwStr% and 9.2 SwStr% over the last month despite a 13.3 K%). He’s no prospect, but has performed reasonably well when called on to start in his career and finds himself in a great park against an offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Jordan Zimmermann has his highest strikeout rate since 2014 (22.6%) and has allowed just four ERs in 17 innings since returning from the DL. By ERA and estimators (and even xwOBA), he’s been a league average pitcher through 10 starts. He faces a below average Texas offense outside of Texas in a spot with some strikeout upside (25.2% vs RHP).
Kenta Maeda has completed seven innings with nine strikeouts in back to back starts. He only threw 84 in the first of those, but has now exceeded 95 pitches five times this season and pitched into the seventh in four of his last seven (really four of six if you discount an injury shortened outing). His 13.8 SwStr% is third best on the board (more than five starts) and he’s one of the better contact managers on the board (.305 xwOBA, 31.7% 95+ mph EV). It took him a few starts to bounce back after returning from the DL, but he seems to be there now. The Angels have a 107 wRC+ with a 20 K% vs RHP (14.8 K% last seven days), but are predominantly right-handed. For his career, RHBs have a .263 wOBA and 26.2 K-BB% against him.
Lance McCullers has struck out 25 of his last 76 batters, bringing his season strikeout rate up above 25%. While he’s not the top pitcher on the board in that aspect (not even close), he is in regards to ground balls (55.1%), though he’s not generating them as weakly as in the past (89.4 mph aEV). It should be enough to overwhelm the White Sox (18.0 K-BB% on the road, 18.6 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.4 K-BB% last seven days) in the most negative run environment in baseball.
Nick Pivetta got blasted in for the second time in four starts last time out. So if you want safe, this ain’t it. However, those starts bookend striking out 20 of 52 batters. Among those with more than five starts, his 28 K% is fourth best on the board (and you can see the issues I have with the guy who’s third a bit below). The contact hasn’t been terrible either (.302 xwOBA over the last month), though 9% Barrels/BBE will not play very well in Philadelphia. He gets a significant park upgrade tonight, not from a run environment, but a power one. The Pirates are a below average offense with just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but also only an 8.5 HR/FB at home and 17.7 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Reynaldo Lopez (.261 – 73.8% – 7.6 – 12.8% unearned run rate)
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.255 – 83.2% – 8.2) also has a 16.7% unearned run rate and I’m never going to buy into his near 30 K% with a league average swinging strike rate. I don’t have him missing by much and believe he’s turned himself into a quality arm overall in a spot with some upside (Brewers 25.2 K% vs RHP), but I’m still balking at paying more than $10K. He’s more borderline for me on FanDuel ($8.8K).
Joey Lucchesi (.264 – 84.5% – 20.8) is somewhat balanced by the high HR rate so regression shouldn’t hit too hard, but he has just a 6.3 SwStr% over three starts since returning from the DL and this Arizona offense is suddenly flush with RHBs that hammer LHP. Yesterday, they sent up five batters who exceeded a 130 wRC+ against southpaws over the last calendar year. Not that the results were what anyone hoped for though. I’d still side with Goldy and Pollock again here.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Carlos Carrasco last threw more than 39 pitches in a major league game almost a month ago due to a forearm issue. He faced just 13 AA batters in his lone AA rehab start and costs more than $10K against the A’s. Maybe he goes through the lineup twice?
Paul Blackburn has a 50.7 GB% and 87 mph aEV. He manages contact well and struck out a season high five Indians in 6.1 shutout innings in his last start, but that was in Oakland. He gets a major park downgrade for the rematch against an offense with a split high 126 wRC+ at home. This is not a good matchup at all and is unlikely to go anything like the last one. That said, I can see the appeal in $4.3K if rostering one of the higher priced arms on DraftKings. The runs start crossing the plate early though and he does not have the stuff to make it back up.
Trevor Williams is an exceptional contact manager (85.4 mph aEV and 30.8% 95+ mph EV both trail just Sale) in a high strikeout upside spot (Phillies 26.2 K% vs RHP) with a 20.8 K% over the last month that nearly makes him interesting, yet he’s somehow allowed three HRs to the Padres and Diamondbacks over his last two starts (seven runs in 10.2 innings). It’s perplexing how his results are as poor as they are with a .257 BABIP and 10.6 HR/FB to boot with five more unearned runs, but perhaps a 66.3 LOB% is to blame. I could see him throwing a decent game here, but I’m not sure I’d expect it.
Sam Gaviglio has pitched well (22.6 K%, 3.82 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) and is cheap, but has the Yankees tonight.
Sonny Gray seems to be the only guy the Yankees have brought in who hasn’t excelled. He got lit up by Boston last time out and has had three very diverse outings against the Blue Jays already this year, striking out eight twice, but none in his other with four walks and going past four innings just once. No idea what you’re getting out of him on a start by start basis, but the upside seems lower and less frequent than some other risky pitchers tonight.
Gio Gonzalez was supposed to look great against the Marlins, but he’s been an absolute mess since the beginning of June (6.03 FIP, 23 runs in 26.1 innings, 6.5 K-BB%). Also, while the Marlins have a 75 wRC+ due to a 7.5 HR/FB vs LHP, the peripherals (13.2 K-BB%) are league average.
Zack Godley is another guy I’m supposed to love today against the Padres (19.7 K-BB% on the road, 25.8 K% vs RHP), but just when it looked like he was getting it going, his last three starts: 15 IP – 19 H – 12 R – 1 HR – 12 BB – 14 K – 75 BF. Those were against the Pirates, Marlins and Giants. I’d imagine he and Gio will be the most popular options I’ve omitted today due to the great matchups and overall fine season numbers. They could very well prove me wrong too, but they’ve both been so bad recently. Gio for a longer period than Godley.
Dylan Bundy has pitched into the seventh inning with two runs or less in three of his last four starts, but the strikeout rate is down to 23.4% (10.2 SwStr%) over the last month with an ERA that is predicated on a .225 BABIP, 86.8 LOB% and 6.9 HR/FB. It would seem we’re paying more than $9K for lesser stuff in a marginal spot in Minnesota. Sure, he can pop off for eight or more strikeouts (like he did in his last start), but he might be just as likely to allow multiple bombs too. He has the second highest rate of barrels per BBE (10.4%) among starting pitchers today.
Ryne Stanek is usually not someone I list when he “opens”, but the Rays have beaten us all into submission with the ultimate troll this week when Ryan Yarbrough actually started, but was pulled after three innings in a great spot. I have no idea who they’re even considering for the third inning and beyond tonight, which makes an easy pitching decision, but more difficult offensive ones. Maybe they’ll let him throw six innings tonight.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.5% | 4.5% | 14.8% | 21.3% | Season | 14.5% | 3.9% | 18.9% | 30.6% | Road | 12.8% | 4.2% | 13.6% | 24.1% | L14Days | 13.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 26.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.8% | 5.7% | 12.6% | 16.6% | Season | 25.6% | 5.9% | 12.2% | 24.1% | Home | 27.0% | 5.8% | 16.1% | 14.8% | L14Days | ||||
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 33.7% | 5.3% | 11.8% | 10.3% | Season | 36.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | -1.6% | Road | 37.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | L14Days | 49.0% | 4.1% | 13.7% | |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 18.9% | Season | 20.1% | 11.2% | 20.0% | 36.2% | Road | 21.3% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 18.2% | L14Days | 23.6% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 29.9% | Season | 20.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 29.9% | Home | 24.0% | 4.0% | 11.8% | 30.8% | L14Days | 21.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 40.6% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 7.9% | 13.8% | 15.7% | Season | 27.0% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 17.7% | Road | 25.5% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 22.1% | L14Days | 29.6% | 7.4% | 47.1% | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 8.4% | 17.1% | 17.0% | Season | 19.4% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 22.1% | Home | 21.6% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 12.5% | L14Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 23.5% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 26.0% | 9.8% | 16.2% | 23.9% | Season | 25.3% | 6.7% | 18.8% | 34.0% | Home | 27.4% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 22.1% | L14Days | 25.0% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 35.4% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 37.7% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 18.5% | Season | 37.7% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 18.5% | Home | 43.5% | 4.4% | L14Days | 33.3% | 8.9% | 26.9% | |||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 7.5% | 15.8% | 16.6% | Season | 23.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 16.6% | Road | 21.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 17.3% | L14Days | 30.0% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 45.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.1% | Season | 21.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 12.4% | Home | 23.3% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 7.6% | L14Days | 18.2% | 27.3% | 20.0% | -22.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 9.6% | Season | 31.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | Home | 32.6% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 7.9% | L14Days | 26.9% | 7.7% | 18.2% | 42.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 20.4% | Season | 14.5% | 6.6% | 32.5% | Home | 15.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 23.0% | L14Days | 12.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.9% | |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | L2 Yrs | 25.2% | 9.7% | 20.8% | 19.5% | Season | 25.2% | 9.7% | 20.8% | 19.5% | Road | 26.7% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 32.5% | L14Days | 26.5% | 17.7% | 21.0% | |
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 19.0% | Season | 20.5% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 24.5% | Road | 18.9% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 26.3% | L14Days | 13.3% | 13.3% | 6.3% | 13.6% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 22.9% | Season | 22.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 12.5% | Home | 16.5% | 5.1% | 10.9% | 27.8% | L14Days | 20.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 11.2% | Season | 27.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 19.6% | Road | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 12.4% | L14Days | 34.6% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 38.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 10.4% | Season | 22.2% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 15.8% | Home | 19.8% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 5.6% | L14Days | 23.1% | 10.3% | 25.0% | -4.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.0% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 9.7% | Season | 25.7% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | Home | 27.9% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 2.5% | L14Days | 32.0% | 8.0% | 20.0% | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.3% | Season | 29.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 13.1% | Road | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.0% | L14Days | 34.2% | 18.4% | 25.0% | 22.2% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 9.6% | Season | 16.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | Home | 15.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | L14Days | 21.6% | 9.8% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 18.4% | Season | 28.0% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 16.6% | Road | 21.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 21.0% | L14Days | 23.8% | 11.9% | 50.0% | 29.7% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 11.3% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | Season | 16.2% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 13.1% | Road | 8.3% | 4.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | L14Days | 20.5% | 2.3% | 7.7% | 18.8% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.9% | Season | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | Road | 16.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 14.9% | L14Days | 18.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 22.5% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | L2 Yrs | 30.5% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 27.2% | Season | 30.6% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 15.0% | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 19.7% | L14Days | 34.5% | 17.2% | 7.2% | |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 7.8% | 19.5% | 13.4% | Season | 22.6% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 9.4% | Home | 19.5% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 13.0% | L14Days | 21.7% | 6.5% | 23.1% | 21.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 14.4% | Season | 19.7% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 20.0% | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 16.6% | L14Days | 16.3% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 7.1% | Season | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 6.1% | Home | 18.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | L14Days | 23.3% | 4.7% | 27.3% | 22.6% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 23.1% | Season | 23.5% | 9.9% | 17.6% | 28.3% | Road | 15.9% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 21.6% | L14Days | 34.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 30.8% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 14.9% | Season | 21.9% | 11.9% | 16.0% | 15.7% | Home | 25.3% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 20.0% | L14Days | 18.7% | 16.0% | 9.1% | 25.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Home | 19.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 24.1% | RH | 21.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 18.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.3% | 14.5% | 2.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.4% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 25.2% | RH | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 25.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 24.0% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 25.9% | LH | 21.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 17.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 19.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.5% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.5% | 23.1% | 15.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.5% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 20.6% | RH | 22.7% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 22.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 31.6% |
| Twins | Home | 22.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 20.1% | RH | 21.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 20.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 16.4% | RH | 23.8% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 14.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.1% | 18.6% | 16.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 19.2% | RH | 21.6% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.9% | 21.0% | 28.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 17.8% | RH | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.0% | 13.8% | 16.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.4% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 9.5% | RH | 20.3% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 15.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 4.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.5% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 14.1% | LH | 22.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 24.4% |
| Rays | Road | 24.0% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 15.1% | RH | 23.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 15.2% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 18.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.8% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 18.2% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | 15.1% | 20.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 20.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 24.2% | LH | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 24.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 17.6% |
| Giants | Home | 22.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 22.2% | RH | 23.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 20.2% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 28.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 18.4% | RH | 25.2% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 22.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 25.9% |
| Angels | Home | 21.2% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 20.3% | RH | 20.0% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 20.0% | L7Days | 14.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.6% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 11.5% | RH | 24.7% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.7% | 13.2% | 4.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.7% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 18.1% | RH | 25.1% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.6% | 20.0% | 24.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 24.9% | RH | 25.2% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 17.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 23.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 17.2% | LH | 21.2% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 23.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 29.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | RH | 19.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 4.2% | 14.9% | 23.4% |
| Indians | Home | 19.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 29.4% | RH | 21.3% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 25.4% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 35.3% |
| Astros | Home | 21.0% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 10.9% | RH | 20.1% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.8% | RH | 21.4% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 18.3% | L7Days | 22.8% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 21.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.4% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 16.5% | RH | 23.2% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 18.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.3% | 24.6% | 28.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.4% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | RH | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 16.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | -2.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.2% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.1% | RH | 26.2% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 2.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.6% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 10.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 15.3% | 13.9% | 20.9% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Road | 26.1% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 15.8% | RH | 25.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 17.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 32.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 14.5% | 5.7% | 2.54 | 9.9% | 4.3% | 2.30 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 25.6% | 13.2% | 1.94 | 36.5% | 14.5% | 2.52 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 36.1% | 15.9% | 2.27 | 41.5% | 17.0% | 2.44 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 20.1% | 10.5% | 1.91 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 2.03 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 20.4% | 10.1% | 2.02 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.17 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 27.0% | 13.7% | 1.97 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.29 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 1.71 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 25.3% | 13.6% | 1.86 | 27.4% | 14.2% | 1.93 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 37.7% | 14.1% | 2.67 | 33.3% | 13.3% | 2.50 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.32 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 2.48 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.8% | 9.7% | 2.25 | 14.4% | 9.0% | 1.60 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 31.5% | 15.5% | 2.03 | 26.3% | 15.3% | 1.72 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 14.5% | 8.8% | 1.65 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 1.74 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.63 | 26.7% | 6.3% | 4.24 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 20.5% | 11.4% | 1.80 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 1.45 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 2.21 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 27.9% | 13.8% | 2.02 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 1.68 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.09 | 24.1% | 13.5% | 1.79 |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 25.7% | 13.0% | 1.98 | 26.2% | 14.4% | 1.82 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 29.5% | 10.2% | 2.89 | 34.2% | 14.0% | 2.44 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 16.4% | 10.0% | 1.64 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 1.66 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 28.0% | 11.9% | 2.35 | 29.1% | 13.8% | 2.11 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 17.1% | 9.1% | 1.88 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 2.08 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 30.6% | 13.5% | 2.27 | 33.9% | 13.8% | 2.46 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 2.20 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 1.78 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 17.9% | 7.9% | 2.27 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.08 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 23.5% | 10.9% | 2.16 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 1.94 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.98 |
Felix Hernandez has been above a 13 SwStr% in three of his last five starts.
Jacob deGrom has been above a 17 SwStr% in two of his last three starts. The drop in strikeout rate recently is not a concern.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 4.76 | 4.47 | -0.29 | 4.76 | -0.44 | 5.25 | 0.49 | 6.68 | 1.92 | 6.15 | 5.46 | -0.69 | 5.41 | -0.74 | 5.45 | -0.70 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 4.24 | 3.46 | -0.78 | 4.24 | -0.77 | 3.42 | -0.82 | 3.63 | -0.61 | 2.93 | 2.19 | -0.74 | 2.36 | -0.57 | 1.08 | -1.85 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.41 | 2.48 | 0.07 | 2.41 | 0.15 | 2.38 | -0.03 | 2.06 | -0.35 | 1.03 | 1.89 | 0.86 | 1.75 | 0.72 | 0.96 | -0.07 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.70 | 4.83 | 0.13 | 4.70 | 0.11 | 5.86 | 1.16 | 4.19 | -0.51 | 6.56 | 3.91 | -2.65 | 4.35 | -2.21 | 6.14 | -0.42 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 3.16 | 3.98 | 0.82 | 3.16 | 0.81 | 3.34 | 0.18 | 4.63 | 1.47 | 3.58 | 4.05 | 0.47 | 4.01 | 0.43 | 3.35 | -0.23 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 3.75 | 3.56 | -0.19 | 3.75 | 0.13 | 4.29 | 0.54 | 3.58 | -0.17 | 1.98 | 4.05 | 2.07 | 4 | 2.02 | 3.21 | 1.23 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.11 | 4.37 | -0.74 | 5.11 | -0.76 | 4.57 | -0.54 | 4.35 | -0.76 | 4.50 | 3.84 | -0.66 | 3.64 | -0.86 | 3.75 | -0.75 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 3.71 | 3.40 | -0.31 | 3.71 | -0.24 | 4.22 | 0.51 | 3.14 | -0.57 | 2.51 | 3.34 | 0.83 | 3.13 | 0.62 | 2.89 | 0.38 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 2.28 | 2.93 | 0.65 | 2.28 | 0.71 | 1.98 | -0.30 | 2.25 | -0.03 | 1.50 | 2.94 | 1.44 | 3.33 | 1.83 | 1.32 | -0.18 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 5.14 | 4.06 | -1.08 | 5.14 | -1.14 | 4.49 | -0.65 | 4.16 | -0.98 | 6.91 | 3.54 | -3.37 | 3.45 | -3.46 | 5.04 | -1.87 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 3.77 | 4.36 | 0.59 | 3.77 | 0.30 | 3.92 | 0.15 | 4.03 | 0.26 | 9.31 | 5.96 | -3.35 | 5.59 | -3.72 | 7.34 | -1.97 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.84 | 2.85 | 1.01 | 1.84 | 0.76 | 2.22 | 0.38 | 2.14 | 0.30 | 2.57 | 2.98 | 0.41 | 2.81 | 0.24 | 2.84 | 0.27 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 5.56 | 4.94 | -0.62 | 5.56 | -0.53 | 4.20 | -1.36 | 6.54 | 0.98 | 6.83 | 5.09 | -1.74 | 5.3 | -1.53 | 4.10 | -2.73 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 3.26 | 3.88 | 0.62 | 3.26 | 0.37 | 4.51 | 1.25 | 3.69 | 0.43 | 3.38 | 4.62 | 1.24 | 4 | 0.62 | 5.82 | 2.44 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 3.92 | 4.39 | 0.47 | 3.92 | 0.46 | 3.41 | -0.51 | 3.04 | -0.88 | 2.51 | 5.77 | 3.26 | 5.49 | 2.98 | 4.57 | 2.06 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.00 | 3.91 | 0.19 | 3.20 | -0.71 | 3.44 | -0.47 | 2.12 | 3.79 | 1.67 | 3.87 | 1.75 | 1.75 | -0.37 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.36 | 3.60 | 0.24 | 3.36 | 0.09 | 3.01 | -0.35 | 2.37 | -0.99 | 2.78 | 4.59 | 1.81 | 4.35 | 1.57 | 3.41 | 0.63 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 5.49 | 4.64 | -0.85 | 5.49 | -1.19 | 4.37 | -1.12 | 6.43 | 0.94 | 5.55 | 3.99 | -1.56 | 3.75 | -1.80 | 3.68 | -1.87 |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 3.55 | 3.61 | 0.06 | 3.55 | -0.15 | 3.53 | -0.02 | 3.20 | -0.35 | 2.81 | 3.44 | 0.63 | 3.18 | 0.37 | 3.73 | 0.92 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.02 | 3.66 | 1.64 | 2.02 | 1.44 | 2.99 | 0.97 | 2.87 | 0.85 | 1.35 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 3.28 | 1.93 | 2.70 | 1.35 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.55 | 4.28 | 0.73 | 3.55 | 0.69 | 4.01 | 0.46 | 4.21 | 0.66 | 3.10 | 4.69 | 1.59 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 4.24 | 1.14 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.66 | 3.37 | -1.29 | 4.66 | -1.28 | 3.69 | -0.97 | 3.16 | -1.50 | 7.56 | 3.39 | -4.17 | 3.42 | -4.14 | 5.74 | -1.82 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 6.46 | 4.21 | -2.25 | 6.46 | -2.30 | 3.73 | -2.73 | 3.72 | -2.74 | 6.46 | 4.21 | -2.25 | 4.16 | -2.30 | 3.73 | -2.73 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 3.68 | 5.11 | 1.43 | 3.68 | 1.77 | 4.51 | 0.83 | 6.06 | 2.38 | 3.47 | 4.94 | 1.47 | 5.39 | 1.92 | 4.34 | 0.87 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 1.98 | 3.67 | 1.69 | 1.98 | 2.04 | 3.17 | 1.19 | 3.37 | 1.39 | 0.56 | 3.34 | 2.78 | 3.31 | 2.75 | 1.98 | 1.42 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 3.97 | 3.82 | -0.15 | 3.97 | -0.10 | 4.40 | 0.43 | 4.81 | 0.84 | 4.50 | 4.33 | -0.17 | 4.3 | -0.20 | 4.60 | 0.10 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 5.44 | 4.46 | -0.98 | 5.44 | -1.13 | 4.39 | -1.05 | 5.26 | -0.18 | 5.33 | 3.81 | -1.52 | 3.49 | -1.84 | 3.84 | -1.49 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 4.22 | 4.62 | 0.40 | 4.22 | 0.30 | 4.22 | 0.00 | 4.88 | 0.66 | 5.32 | 4.19 | -1.13 | 4.2 | -1.12 | 4.66 | -0.66 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 3.83 | 4.19 | 0.36 | 3.83 | 0.21 | 4.68 | 0.85 | 5.06 | 1.23 | 2.57 | 4.21 | 1.64 | 4.05 | 1.48 | 3.92 | 1.35 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 5.07 | 4.46 | -0.61 | 5.07 | -0.81 | 4.62 | -0.45 | 5.34 | 0.27 | 4.94 | 4.53 | -0.41 | 4.42 | -0.52 | 4.05 | -0.89 |
Dereck Rodriguez has a 7.9 HR/FB (possibly sustainable if he continues pitching against so many poor offenses at home). Three of his 16 runs so far have been unearned.
Felix Hernandez has a 67 LOB%, so perhaps he deserves an ERA below five, though still well above four.
Freddy Peralta has a .208 BABIP and 4.0 HR/FB.
Jacob deGrom has an 84.1 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB despite a HR allowed in two straight starts.
John Gant is not far removed from his estimators, but the underlying numbers are all over the place with a .232 BABIP, yet a 53.2 LOB%, throwing in a 5.1 HR/FB.
Nick Pivetta has a .330 BABIP. Despite his 9.0% Barrels/BBE, his 14.9 HR/FB is not far from league average and his 88 mph aEV is closer to league average than terrible as well.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.265 | -0.036 | 43.9% | 22.3% | 10.4% | 93.5% | 33.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.288 | 0.306 | 0.018 | 42.2% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 88.6% | 29.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.289 | 0.264 | -0.025 | 44.5% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 77.3% | 27.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.248 | -0.044 | 31.4% | 30.2% | 10.8% | 88.3% | 42.2% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.302 | 0.325 | 0.023 | 40.7% | 25.7% | 13.2% | 87.6% | 33.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.319 | 0.285 | -0.034 | 35.4% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 83.2% | 33.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.292 | 0.292 | 0.000 | 45.8% | 21.6% | 11.2% | 91.2% | 33.4% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.297 | 0.362 | 0.065 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 12.5% | 84.8% | 35.5% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.208 | -0.061 | 32.1% | 20.8% | 12.0% | 78.6% | 33.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.308 | 0.315 | 0.007 | 43.1% | 22.5% | 8.7% | 87.5% | 41.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.282 | 0.300 | 0.018 | 50.4% | 19.3% | 6.3% | 85.8% | 32.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.302 | 0.295 | -0.007 | 47.1% | 24.7% | 19.4% | 78.2% | 31.7% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.301 | 0.331 | 0.030 | 38.0% | 22.6% | 5.8% | 89.8% | 34.8% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.301 | 0.264 | -0.037 | 47.4% | 21.1% | 8.3% | 84.3% | 33.5% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.282 | 0.232 | -0.050 | 48.2% | 17.0% | 10.3% | 84.0% | 34.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.288 | 0.288 | 0.000 | 30.6% | 23.6% | 15.2% | 88.9% | 33.1% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.298 | 0.316 | 0.018 | 38.1% | 26.8% | 5.9% | 83.6% | 36.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.304 | 0.341 | 0.037 | 51.7% | 22.6% | 8.3% | 84.4% | 42.9% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 0.275 | 0.272 | -0.003 | 55.1% | 17.9% | 5.6% | 85.6% | 33.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.281 | 0.255 | -0.026 | 43.9% | 21.7% | 13.7% | 83.1% | 34.9% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.271 | 0.260 | -0.011 | 56.2% | 15.4% | 8.8% | 85.6% | 28.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.301 | 0.330 | 0.029 | 43.0% | 18.9% | 8.0% | 82.4% | 36.1% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.277 | 0.324 | 0.047 | 50.7% | 20.0% | 9.1% | 93.6% | 40.4% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.288 | 0.261 | -0.027 | 34.8% | 17.7% | 14.5% | 86.1% | 46.2% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.266 | 0.186 | -0.080 | 38.3% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 81.9% | 41.1% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.269 | -0.034 | 48.5% | 16.2% | 6.3% | 92.8% | 31.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.321 | 0.040 | 47.6% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 89.3% | 35.7% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.297 | 0.257 | -0.040 | 41.3% | 20.1% | 9.6% | 90.4% | 36.3% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.295 | 0.305 | 0.010 | 38.6% | 25.1% | 9.9% | 82.8% | 36.8% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.282 | 0.330 | 0.048 | 51.3% | 20.8% | 16.0% | 89.6% | 34.4% |
Freddy Peralta has a great defense and has missed bats in the strike zone, but it’s .208.
John Gant has a low line drive rate, but no other standout characteristics.
Nick Pivetta suffers what may be the worst defense in baseball and that’s been well vocalized by a more veteran pitcher on that staff. He does have some decently favorable qualities in his own profile, though the line drive rate is not predictive. He probably should have a lower BABIP though.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.373 | -0.038 | 0.368 | -0.004 | 0.399 | 0.001 | -2.000 | 89.9 | 7.6 | 41.100 | 314 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.310 | -0.017 | 0.320 | 0.005 | 0.260 | 0.008 | -0.100 | 89.4 | 6.7 | 37.200 | 253 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.252 | -0.011 | 0.248 | -0.005 | 0.198 | -0.020 | -1.100 | 84.7 | 7.9 | 28.600 | 252 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.405 | -0.065 | 0.347 | -0.012 | 0.387 | -0.033 | -0.400 | 89.3 | 10.9 | 41.700 | 156 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.318 | 0.003 | 0.294 | -0.010 | 0.322 | -0.006 | 0.000 | 89 | 2.6 | 38.500 | 117 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.338 | -0.023 | 0.330 | -0.019 | 0.298 | -0.059 | -1.200 | 89.2 | 10.4 | 38.800 | 260 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.361 | -0.030 | 0.343 | -0.033 | 0.337 | -0.025 | -0.300 | 88.7 | 7.8 | 38.000 | 308 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.333 | 0.012 | 0.297 | 0.052 | 0.324 | -0.013 | -1.100 | 93.2 | 10.0 | 54.000 | 50 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.254 | -0.051 | 0.125 | -0.041 | 0.229 | -0.064 | 1.500 | 85.8 | 2.5 | 35.000 | 40 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.031 | 0.314 | 0.001 | 0.293 | 0.071 | -1.600 | 88.5 | 5.5 | 38.000 | 271 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.320 | -0.006 | 0.313 | -0.016 | 0.379 | 0.004 | -0.900 | 87.8 | 6.0 | 35.300 | 252 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.261 | -0.014 | 0.259 | 0.006 | 0.293 | -0.031 | 1.100 | 86.5 | 3.5 | 31.900 | 260 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.388 | -0.041 | 0.363 | -0.046 | 0.404 | -0.026 | 0.200 | 89.3 | 7.9 | 40.400 | 354 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.337 | -0.030 | 0.316 | -0.041 | 0.349 | -0.053 | -0.100 | 88 | 7.1 | 35.700 | 154 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.314 | -0.059 | 0.319 | -0.002 | 0.318 | -0.073 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 5.2 | 40.600 | 96 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.323 | -0.037 | 0.359 | -0.007 | 0.276 | -0.064 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 8.1 | 38.700 | 124 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.305 | -0.009 | 0.313 | 0.020 | 0.355 | -0.081 | -0.800 | 86.8 | 6.0 | 31.700 | 199 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.335 | 0.011 | 0.318 | -0.028 | 0.293 | 0.017 | -0.200 | 88.1 | 4.9 | 39.300 | 224 |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 0.311 | -0.025 | 0.265 | 0.006 | 0.305 | -0.020 | -1.000 | 89.4 | 8.3 | 37.500 | 264 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.289 | -0.029 | 0.320 | 0.003 | 0.246 | -0.026 | -0.400 | 88 | 7.2 | 32.900 | 207 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.311 | -0.029 | 0.318 | -0.008 | 0.330 | -0.054 | -0.400 | 85.9 | 3.4 | 35.900 | 206 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.312 | 0.010 | 0.352 | 0.016 | 0.302 | 0.108 | 0.100 | 88 | 9.0 | 35.900 | 234 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.319 | 0.011 | 0.329 | -0.053 | 0.319 | 0.011 | -0.300 | 87 | 5.3 | 33.300 | 75 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.347 | -0.039 | 0.336 | 0.011 | 0.343 | -0.026 | -0.300 | 88.1 | 7.3 | 34.300 | 286 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.317 | -0.100 | 0.363 | -0.084 | 0.284 | -0.119 | -1.200 | 90.5 | 14.3 | 41.100 | 56 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.308 | -0.001 | 0.335 | -0.021 | 0.303 | 0.019 | 0.300 | 87.8 | 4.3 | 38.400 | 138 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.296 | -0.006 | 0.306 | 0.027 | -0.200 | 89.6 | 7.4 | 41.800 | 256 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.334 | -0.033 | 0.320 | -0.030 | 0.330 | -0.021 | 0.600 | 85.4 | 7.2 | 30.800 | 279 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.338 | -0.001 | 0.362 | -0.034 | 0.294 | 0.023 | 0.100 | 87.8 | 9.9 | 39.300 | 262 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.370 | -0.023 | 0.322 | -0.025 | 0.378 | -0.006 | -1.200 | 88.7 | 9.3 | 37.200 | 258 |
The top two pitchers on the board combine elite swing and miss with great contact management this year.
Dereck Rodriguez combines and 89 mph aEV with 2.6% Barrels/BBE due to the small sample size. Expect his rate of barrels to rise if the aEV stays the same, but perhaps hurt him less in that park than it would most.
Felix Pena shows us some numbers above that greatly concern and take away a lot of the excitement over his strikeout rate.
Freddy Peralta gives us a rare opportunity to reference the Effective Velocity column today.
German Marquez has the sixth lowest xwOBA on the board.
Jacob deGrom gets some of that nice extension and Effective Velocity increase too, though he has a starting point of 95.4 actual mph and clusters his fastballs more tightly at the top of the zone.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The top pitchers are easy tonight, except for their price tags. Even the cheaper guys we can pair with them are going to mean sacrificing some offense.
Value Tier One
German Marquez might be a league average arm on the road. In such a case, he’s priced very much too generously in a marginal spot on DraftKings $5.8K. The Mariners are a tough bunch, but are neutralized by a difficult park. Drop him down a tier for $7.1K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (2) is $500 to $1K less than Sale in a similarly great spot with more strikeout potential. Sale has been the hotter pitcher, driving his season numbers above deGrom recently, but the righty needs a bit less to justify his cost tonight.
John Gant is cheap with league average upside in a great park, though the base on balls has been doing him in recently. He won’t need to do too much to pay off and if all goes one in your SP1 spot tonight, will only need to hold the fort down in San Francisco.
Value Tier Three
Chris Sale (1) is on fire and now has the best numbers on the board in every key category and is in a great spot. He comes at an enormous cost though and needs more than 30 DK points to pay off.
Kenta Maeda (4) is not cheap and may be in a spot with limited upside, but he has dominated RHBs throughout his career and has now been fairly regularly pitching into the seventh over the last couple of months when healthy.
Lance McCullers (3) hasn’t been very consistent, but has completed six innings in six straight with a much higher strikeout rate over his last three and is in a high upside spot in a great park. He costs more than $11K on either site though and I’d struggle to class him alongside the top two arms tonight, who are also in really nice spots.
Freddy Peralta (5) still may be doing some stuff that’s unsustainable, but at least we have the beginning of an explanation to part of it. He’s in the $10K club on DraftKings now, where I’d probably limit my exposure to him, if any, in a low strikeout spot, but $8.4K on FanDuel is still reasonable.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Nick Pivetta is far from safe, but has upside, even against the Pirates, who’s lack of power could help compensate for their ability to make contact. You don’t get a lot of strikeout rates that high (with supporting SwStr%) for less than $9K.
Felix Pena scares the crap out of me with the amount of hard contact he has allowed, but players will certainly be looking for cheap arms with some upside to pair their Ace with on DraftKings and he’s shown some of that in his three starts and pitches in a favorable park. The potential for a negative score here does appear to exist.
Felix Hernandez costs less than $8K at home against the Rockies. The matchup is really the beginning and end of any interest in him today.
Dereck Rodriguez has excelled in some great spots and probably isn’t as good as the results show up to this point, but he’s in another favorable spot at a still reasonable cost, though he is getting up there on FanDuel ($8.6K). It’s tough to see if he’s actually figured out something at AAA this season or not before seeing him in some tougher spots.
Jordan Zimmermann has been fine and for him that’s a massive improvement. He’s reasonably priced in a spot with some upside.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.