Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 22nd
As much daily fantasy goodness as game two of the double-header between the A’s and White Sox offers, I commend both sites from omitting the game from the main slate tonight with the decent possibility that lineups may either not be available before lock or that it may effect lock time if it starts early (as happened on FanDuel last week). Both Bassitt and Giolito (the currently scheduled pitchers) are listed if there is some format you’re playing that includes them, but they won’t be included in the notes (they probably wouldn’t have been regardless).
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -8.7 | 4.47 | 5.7 | 48.8% | 0.99 | 4.58 | 3.68 | Braves | 93 | 96 | 90 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -2.3 | 3.59 | 5.7 | 50.8% | 0.92 | 3.44 | 4.06 | Mets | 80 | 77 | 144 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.6 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 37.0% | 0.93 | 3.33 | 3.89 | Blue Jays | 90 | 91 | 132 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 4.8 | 4.35 | 5.7 | 49.0% | 0.92 | 4.44 | 3.91 | Rays | 104 | 98 | 61 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 3 | 4.21 | 5.5 | 30.6% | 0.98 | 4.21 | White Sox | 91 | 91 | 58 | |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -6.3 | 4.83 | 5.3 | 41.2% | 0.93 | 4.70 | 5.34 | Padres | 69 | 82 | 67 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -6.8 | 4.08 | 6.1 | 59.7% | 0.93 | 4.05 | 3.94 | Giants | 117 | 99 | 72 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 4.8 | 3.77 | 6.3 | 60.0% | 0.87 | 3.42 | 3.14 | Royals | 86 | 87 | 46 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 3.6 | 4.27 | 6.1 | 36.5% | 0.87 | 4.86 | 3.95 | Astros | 103 | 124 | 142 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | -0.1 | 4.31 | 5.0 | 45.6% | 1.05 | 5.08 | 4.97 | Rangers | 85 | 88 | 120 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | -2.5 | 4.15 | 5.8 | 48.1% | 0.98 | 4.14 | 4.38 | Diamondbacks | 90 | 82 | 101 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.5 | 3.80 | 5.1 | 45.1% | 1.02 | 4.10 | 3.42 | Brewers | 95 | 99 | 111 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.9 | 3.69 | 5.5 | 45.0% | 1.33 | 3.17 | 2.58 | Marlins | 81 | 82 | 99 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 12.6 | 4.05 | 5.9 | 43.6% | 1.01 | 3.79 | 4.85 | Reds | 97 | 106 | 123 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 6.3 | 4.62 | 5.3 | 40.7% | 1.02 | 4.54 | 4.29 | Cardinals | 96 | 94 | 108 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -5 | 5.63 | 5.3 | 41.3% | 0.98 | 5.81 | 5.38 | Athletics | 120 | 107 | 127 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -3.4 | 3.90 | 5.6 | 51.1% | 1.01 | 3.48 | 4.23 | Cubs | 103 | 104 | 111 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -4.9 | 4.56 | 5.6 | 29.7% | 0.93 | 5.09 | 3.77 | Angels | 103 | 112 | 119 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.40 | 5.4 | 41.8% | 1.06 | 4.72 | 3.57 | Indians | 123 | 105 | 120 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | -1.1 | 3.63 | 5.5 | 39.5% | 1.05 | 4.03 | 4.47 | Twins | 95 | 87 | 91 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.5 | 3.92 | 5.7 | 50.5% | 0.98 | 3.83 | 4.10 | Pirates | 107 | 109 | 89 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | -1.3 | 3.95 | 5.1 | 37.4% | 0.92 | 4.21 | 4.77 | Yankees | 112 | 125 | 126 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 4.7 | 4.45 | 5.5 | 46.5% | 0.99 | 4.64 | 3.13 | Orioles | 73 | 83 | 100 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 7.1 | 3.21 | 5.6 | 47.2% | 1.06 | 3.74 | 3.27 | Tigers | 85 | 86 | 99 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 5.6 | 4.72 | 5.9 | 45.2% | 1.10 | 4.85 | 4.51 | Mariners | 106 | 104 | 82 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -5.6 | 4.39 | 6.1 | 46.5% | 1.01 | 3.95 | 5.30 | Phillies | 82 | 94 | 125 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -2.1 | 4.00 | 5.4 | 39.0% | 1.10 | 4.16 | 2.68 | Red Sox | 121 | 80 | 89 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | -3.7 | 4.64 | 5.1 | 38.4% | 1.33 | 5.53 | 5.51 | Rockies | 87 | 99 | 131 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -7.4 | 4.75 | 5.9 | 39.4% | 1.01 | 4.93 | 2.19 | Nationals | 92 | 93 | 86 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -3.1 | 4.42 | 5.4 | 45.8% | 0.92 | 4.47 | 4.97 | Dodgers | 110 | 105 | 77 |
Alex Wood hasn’t completed six innings in four starts and hasn’t gone beyond that since his first of the season, but he has a league average strikeout rate and has retained his SwStr% over the last month. While his ERA is above four, his estimators are well below that due to a low strand rate (63%). The .388 xwOBA over the last month is a concern. It’s the third highest mark on the board (second if you don’t count Giolito). His hard hit rate has been above 35% for five straight starts and in just one of those has he had a GB rate above 40%. He’s thrown more than 85 pitches in just one of those five starts. The Mets are the hottest offense in the league (144 wRC+, 7.1 K-BB%, 18.4 HR/FB last seven days). Here’s the good part though. The Mets have a 77 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs LHP and while even that’s improved over the last week, they just came off a four-game series at Coors and return to an extremely negative run environment.
Andrew Heaney has allowed eight HRs this year, six in just two starts, four over his last two. He did complete eight one-run innings on three hits with eight strikeouts in Oakland last time out though. While his strikeout rate over the last month is still just 17.7%, his SwStr% has not dropped. Three times over his last seven starts, he’s completed eight innings. That kind of upside is nice to have on this board and kind of tough to ignore. His 85.9 mph aEV is tied for the third-lowest mark on the board. The Blue Jays are one of the hottest offenses in the league with a 132 wRC+ and 19 HR/FB over the last week, but a below average wRC+ on the road (90) and vs LHP (91).
C.C. Sabathia struck out 10 of 33 Rays in 7.2 innings last time out. He hadn’t previously struck out more than seven and while he has now completed seven innings in two of his last three starts, he’s only faced more than 25 batters one other time, but has thrown 100 pitches in back to back starts, the only two times he’s done that this season. It looks like the Yankees are stretching him out a bit and why not? While his strikeout rate still remains below average, he does have a better than average SwStr%. His .294 xwOBA is third best on the board and nobody comes close to his 83.7 mph aEV. Don’t expect a repeat performance, but the Rays have a 61 wRC+, 29.9 K%, 8.1 HR/FB and -1.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week and 24.2 K% vs LHP now.
Clayton Richard has completed six innings in eight straight starts, seven or more in six of those. Over that span, RHBs have just a .263 wOBA with a 15.5 K-BB% and 56.4 GB% against him (though a 42 Hard% also). His SwStr% for the year and month sit at league average and while the actual strikeout rate may be a bit below that, seven innings will give you a useful total most likely. The Giants have been average against LHP, but are a bit more balanced than predominantly right-handed recently, unless they try to force it with inferior bats. They have a 23 K% against southpaws this year.
Dallas Keuchel doesn’t have much in his profile that stands out in any chart. The decrease in strikeouts is not encouraging, but he otherwise seems like a league average pitcher. In fact, his .297 BABIP may be a bit too high considering his team rate. It’s likely a product of too many ground balls going where they’re not shifted. The thing we want to look at tonight is potentially the top park adjusted matchup on the board in the most negative run environment against the coldest offense in the league (46 wRC+ and 4.1 HR/FB last seven days are both league lows, along with a 17.2 K-BB%). The Royals also are below a 90 wRC+ on the road and against LHP with a few more strikeouts (21.3%) against southpaws.
Ivan Nova has struck out more than five just twice all season and more than four just once over the last month despite the league average strikeout rate over the last 30 days. He’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning in just two of his last 12 starts though and while his estimators for the last month remain almost exactly at his season ERA well above four, Statcast supports the 3.18 ERA over this span with a .286 xwOBA, though it’s just three starts. The Diamondbacks have just an 82 wRC+ and 25 K% against RHP. That’s probably the most important part here.
Jon Gray has allowed at least four runs in five of seven starts at home this year. However, he has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.6%) with the sixth best xwOBA (.307) and gets the Marlins (82 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP). It’s still not ideal because it is Coors, but it’s not terrible. Those other two home starts by the way, he’s allowed zero runs. While there’s been talk in the past that he emphasizes ground balls at home and that rate is 13.1 points higher than his mark on the road this year, his strikeout rate is also 1.7 points higher at home this season.
Luis Castillo struck out two Pirates in his last start (with two HRs) and just three Padres two starts before that (with another HR). In between, he set down 10 Cardinals on strikes (with two more HRs). This has been a roller coaster and he’s allowed 17 HRs, but the thing you may not know about the Cubs is that they don’t have a lot of power (10.7 HR/FB on the road, 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP). It’s the strong plate discipline (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) that makes them a quality offense. He does have some minor control issues from time to time. This is a very dangerous spot for him, but I still have to believe there’s more upside in that 14 SwStr% that’s best on the board. His 10.8% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board, but even that probably doesn’t deserve a 20+ HR/FB.
Patrick Corbin has the top strikeout rate on the board (31.4%) by more than four points and while it’s dropped a bit over the last month (27.7%) that’s still good for second best. His .296 xwOBA is fourth best on the board. There are two problems here though. While he’s struck out at least seven in all but three starts this year and has failed to record an out in the sixth inning just once this year, he has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts and he’s in a tough spot against a team with a 9.9 K-BB% vs LHP. They have just an 8.8 HR/FB at home, but their strikeout rate is just 17.9% there.
Sean Newcomb is a quality arm in a great spot against a Baltimore offense (73 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+ vs LHP) that loses it’s DH tonight. However, they don’t strike out a ton against LHP (21.8%) and his own strikeout rate has been just league average over the last month. It comes with no drop in his SwStr%, but even that’s just league average. His .275 xwOBA is best on the board however, due to strong contact management. His 2.9% Barrels/BBE is the only mark below 5%.
Shane Bieber has struck out 13 of 51 batters faced, all of them being Twins. The 23 year-old has just nine total starts above AA now, but has never been below a 20 K-BB% at any stop of his professional career. That’s more due to a sub-four percent walk rate at every stop, but you don’t get there without an above average strikeout rate too. Being around the plate too much can sometimes cause problems for these types of guys most immediately in the majors, but the Tigers don’t have a lot of power (8.6 HR/FB on the road, 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP). The Tigers don’t walk much either, but they are contact prone.
Zack Wheeler has gone at least six innings in nine of 13 starts. He still sometimes has that big inning that will ruin a start, but when he allowed six runs in Atlanta two starts back, he left with the bases loaded with two outs in the sixth and watched the reliever allow a grand slam. A league average strikeout rate with the second lowest aEV (85.8 mph) from a guy who usually gets through six innings is nothing to scoff at on most board, but especially this one. The Dodgers are not an ideal opponent, but have cooled down with the bats and it’s one of the most negative run environments on the board.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Wade LeBlanc (.266 – 88.2% – 10.3) did WHAT against the Red Sox last time out??? Just 7.2 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 9 K – 24 BF. I’m certainly buying that he’s been a find for the Mariners and the Red Sox have been terrible against LHP (80 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB%), but he still only threw 98 pitches last time out, a season-high by six. He’s only been above 85 twice. He has an 8.8 SwStr% for the season and transitions to a very positive run environment. The Red Sox have a 41 point spread in their wRC+ at home and wRC+ vs LHP with more than six point difference in strikeout rate. The pitcher handedness splits probably trump the home numbers slightly, but they still matter. He’s a fine five or even six-inning pitcher maybe, but I can’t buy him for much more than $6K in Boston. That we’re even this close is a shock.
Jack Flaherty (.276 – 81% – 12) is very expensive in a fairly neutral spot for a pitcher who has failed to go beyond five innings in three of his last four and five of his nine starts overall. He has, however, thrown at least 95 pitches in three of his last four and has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (26.7%). Maybe he’s okay on FanDuel, but how do you pay nearly $10K here?
Steven Wright (.202 – 90.4% – 3.4) has allowed one run through 20.2 innings in three starts. He’s not nearly this good and is facing a difficult offense in a difficult spot. On the other hand, why not the knuckleball just for the hell of it today? He may be able to do it again. I can’t, in good conscience, recommend it though.
Junior Guerra (.259 – 82.9% – 10.1) can have the BABIP. The defense has been good. The matchup is fine. At best, he’s a league average pitcher with no added value in an $8K price tag.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Danny Duffy followed up 0 strikeouts in LA (AL) with 10 Oakland, but ran into the Astros last time out, where he struck out just five of 28 batters, while allowing six earned runs. He’s in the same terrible spot today, though in the most negative run environment on the board, where there’s almost some interest for $5.3K on DraftKings, but his .383 xwOBA this season is worst on the board tonight among available pitchers on this slate.
Mike Minor is very cheap, better than his ERA by estimators (67.3 LOB%) and is coming off his first seven-inning start of the season. He’s also facing a team with an 87 wRC+, 24.3 K% and 7.1 HR/FB against LHP, but it’s in a positive run environment and his 13.8% Barrels/BBE is far worse than any other pitcher tonight. Close and more interesting that I thought he’d be today, but not quite.
Ryan Yarbrough is supposed to come in and face the Yankees at some point, but there are very few pitchers who are actually starting the game I’d use in this spot. His ballooning June ERA is due to a .377 BABIP and 64.5 LOB% though. He hasn’t been terrible and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (27.7% 95+ mph EV).
Alex Cobb is really cheap and probably is going to get it together at some point, but is completely untrustworthy right now.
Jose Quintana has been good (not great) over the last month and has not been going deep into games (27 innings divided by five starts). In fact, he’s gone beyond six innings just twice this year and despite the spike in strikeouts over the last month, 10 of those were against the Phillies. He’s struck out a total of six over his last two starts. Also, the Reds are not bad. Look at the numbers. They’re going to give him a fight in a dangerous park.
Chris Stratton has a .375 xwOBA (90.6 mph aEV) that’s second worst on the slate active board tonight. Sure, the Padres strike out a ton. He’s got that going for him and may drive up his strikeout rate above average tonight, but that’s really it. Without that he’d be much more easily forgotten about tonight. I don’t think one of the best matchups on the board is enough for him tonight.
Zach Eflin is throwing harder and missing more bats. There’s some uncomfortable stuff going on here though. His 42.3 Z-O-Swing% is one of the worst marks on the board and he’s not missing a ton of bats in the zone (84.4%), while his 24.6 LD% is one of the highest marks on the board and his .295 BABIP is better than his terrible defense (.300) has been allowing. While he’s gone beyond 100 pitches twice, he’s been held to 85 or less in four of his eight starts, including last time out. The Nationals are a favorable matchup by wRC+, but certainly have more depth to their lineup at this point than they have for most of the season (though it hasn’t meant much yet) and the underlying peripherals are much better than the results show so far. I can’t buy him for more than $8K here. I’d have trouble for much more than $7K actually.
Tanner Roark has gone at least six innings in 12 of 14 starts and is facing the Phillies (26.6 K% vs RHP). A few weeks ago, he would have been a prime pick on this board. However, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last month (14 total over his last four starts), while the Phillies have been hot (22.9 HR/FB last seven days). If he’s not going to miss bats and cost $8K, this is suddenly not so ideal.
Mike Fiers hasn’t been bad, but he is in Cleveland.
Fernando Romero has some potential and is not as bad as his ERA suggests over the last month. His SwStr% has not dropped much with the strikeout rate drop over that span. There’s upside here, but he’s also not a pitcher that often goes beyond five innings and Texas with a 14% walk rate over the last week, could challenge the pitch count of a guy who has surpassed 95 pitches just once since his second start. Minnesota is a sneakily positive run environment as well.
Wei-Yin Chen
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 5.9% | 15.3% | 18.7% | Season | 14.8% | 5.5% | 18.8% | 13.1% | Road | 15.1% | 6.3% | 14.6% | 21.4% | L14Days | 21.2% | 5.8% | 36.4% | 10.5% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 13.6% | Season | 21.8% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 24.6% | Road | 24.3% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 18.1% | L14Days | 17.4% | 4.4% | 33.3% | |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 7.7% | 19.4% | 19.5% | Season | 23.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 13.2% | Home | 26.8% | 7.2% | 19.0% | 20.5% | L14Days | 22.7% | 4.6% | 23.5% | 18.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 2.2% | Season | 18.8% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 0.5% | Road | 17.3% | 8.8% | 14.9% | -1.6% | L14Days | 22.4% | 6.9% | -10.3% | |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 33.4% | Season | 18.4% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 33.4% | Road | L14Days | 18.4% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 33.4% | ||||
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 22.4% | Season | 18.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 34.7% | Home | 15.8% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 22.1% | L14Days | 12.2% | 8.2% | 55.3% | |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 16.6% | Season | 19.5% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 20.0% | Road | 17.0% | 8.2% | 24.7% | 18.2% | L14Days | 20.4% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 27.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 7.0% | 17.9% | 3.9% | Season | 18.2% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 6.5% | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | 20.3% | -4.1% | L14Days | 15.4% | 1.9% | 14.3% | |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 19.6% | Season | 18.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 24.9% | Road | 20.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 15.0% | L14Days | 27.3% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 23.5% |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 27.8% | Season | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 27.8% | Home | 16.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 29.9% | L14Days | 14.3% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 42.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 4.5% | 15.3% | 17.7% | Season | 18.3% | 4.7% | 14.9% | 16.1% | Home | 14.9% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 13.0% | L14Days | 22.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 17.3% | Season | 26.7% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 18.0% | Road | 21.9% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 22.6% | L14Days | 28.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | -7.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% | Season | 27.6% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 18.0% | Home | 24.9% | 7.2% | 15.0% | 8.6% | L14Days | 40.4% | 10.6% | 33.3% | |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 15.6% | Season | 22.8% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 22.1% | Road | 24.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 20.9% | L14Days | 14.0% | 9.3% | 22.2% | 33.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 15.2% | Season | 22.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 22.9% | Home | 24.4% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 13.4% | L14Days | 23.9% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 20.0% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 13.9% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 17.4% | Season | 12.1% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 16.5% | Home | 17.1% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | L14Days | 18.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% | |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 24.9% | 9.0% | 19.4% | 13.6% | Season | 22.4% | 9.1% | 21.3% | 19.4% | Home | 27.4% | 9.4% | 22.2% | 16.4% | L14Days | 25.0% | 10.4% | 30.8% | 38.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 7.3% | Season | 18.8% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | Road | 20.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 7.0% | L14Days | 27.1% | 6.3% | 11.1% | -3.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 7.6% | 16.4% | 14.3% | Season | 17.3% | 4.8% | 13.7% | 16.7% | Road | 20.6% | 8.5% | 20.9% | 9.3% | L14Days | 23.5% | 3.9% | 12.5% | 5.6% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 16.9% | Season | 20.0% | 5.5% | 12.4% | 27.1% | Road | 24.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 13.5% | L14Days | 19.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 39.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 18.4% | Season | 31.4% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 27.0% | Road | 23.5% | 7.6% | 20.4% | 16.1% | L14Days | 23.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 37.1% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 8.8% | Season | 21.4% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 8.8% | Home | 21.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 0.9% | L14Days | 17.4% | 8.7% | 21.4% | 11.8% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | Season | 24.9% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | Home | 20.2% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 12.4% | L14Days | 28.9% | 6.7% | 22.2% | 13.8% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 3.9% | 15.4% | 41.7% | Season | 25.5% | 3.9% | 15.4% | 41.7% | Home | 25.9% | 3.7% | 36.9% | L14Days | 25.9% | 3.7% | 36.9% | ||
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | Season | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 7.4% | Home | 17.3% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 6.8% | L14Days | 16.4% | 9.1% | 35.0% | |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | Season | 19.7% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 10.8% | Home | 22.7% | 7.0% | 15.7% | 6.6% | L14Days | 14.3% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 27.0% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 12.3% | Season | 21.0% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 11.6% | Road | 19.6% | 6.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14Days | 31.1% | 4.4% | 22.2% | 24.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 13.1% | Season | 15.8% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 19.1% | Road | 14.5% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 9.8% | L14Days | 14.3% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 10.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 15.4% | 5.2% | 14.0% | 13.7% | Season | 24.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | Road | 13.7% | 5.3% | 10.3% | 14.8% | L14Days | 36.6% | 4.9% | 13.7% | |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 11.2% | Season | 22.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.2% | Home | 20.9% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 10.1% | L14Days | 20.4% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 15.2% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 21.0% | RH | 20.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 18.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 22.8% |
| Mets | Home | 23.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 12.1% | LH | 25.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.8% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.1% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 18.3% | LH | 21.8% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.0% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| Rays | Home | 21.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 19.1% | LH | 24.2% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | -1.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.2% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 5.8% | RH | 25.1% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Padres | Road | 27.3% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 13.6% | RH | 26.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 31.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 24.1% |
| Giants | Home | 22.6% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 23.1% | LH | 23.0% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 21.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| Royals | Road | 19.2% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 18.5% | LH | 21.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 16.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 23.4% |
| Astros | Home | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 11.1% | LH | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 17.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 27.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 17.4% | RH | 25.3% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 22.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 33.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.5% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 18.7% | RH | 25.0% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 20.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 33.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.6% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 24.7% | RH | 24.7% | 8.2% | 16.0% | 17.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.2% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 14.7% | RH | 23.5% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 15.0% |
| Reds | Home | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 22.1% | LH | 21.6% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 22.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.5% | 8.7% | 17.9% | 17.7% | RH | 23.0% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 21.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 23.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.6% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 25.6% | RH | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 25.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 25.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 14.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 13.1% |
| Angels | Home | 20.9% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 20.5% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 21.8% | L7Days | 15.9% | 10.0% | 19.6% | 26.1% |
| Indians | Home | 20.0% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 29.1% | RH | 21.8% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 24.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 26.2% |
| Twins | Home | 22.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 21.2% | LH | 24.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 26.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | LH | 20.3% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 16.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.5% | 8.0% | 17.0% | 17.6% | LH | 23.5% | 11.0% | 20.0% | 23.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% | 21.7% | 29.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 12.2% | LH | 21.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.6% | 13.8% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 14.5% | RH | 21.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 19.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.0% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 21.1% | RH | 20.9% | 7.0% | 14.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | RH | 26.6% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.9% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.4% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 16.0% | LH | 24.8% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.5% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 14.0% | LH | 22.0% | 8.3% | 17.5% | 18.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% | 21.3% | 32.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.7% | RH | 21.0% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 12.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 8.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 19.3% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 23.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 14.8% | 6.4% | 2.31 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 2.94 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.8% | 11.3% | 1.93 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 1.75 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 23.5% | 11.4% | 2.06 | 17.7% | 11.8% | 1.50 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 18.8% | 10.6% | 1.77 | 18.5% | 10.6% | 1.75 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 18.4% | 6.2% | 2.97 | 18.4% | 6.2% | 2.97 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 18.7% | 8.1% | 2.31 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 2.07 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 19.5% | 10.2% | 1.91 | 18.4% | 10.0% | 1.84 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.2% | 8.8% | 2.07 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.93 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.96 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 1.93 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 20.0% | 11.1% | 1.80 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 1.58 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 18.3% | 9.2% | 1.99 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 26.7% | 12.0% | 2.23 | 23.9% | 12.4% | 1.93 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 27.6% | 13.2% | 2.09 | 30.8% | 14.0% | 2.20 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.65 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.65 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 1.97 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 12.1% | 7.7% | 1.57 | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.02 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 22.4% | 14.0% | 1.60 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 1.97 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.8% | 9.9% | 1.90 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.89 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 17.3% | 8.5% | 2.04 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.43 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 20.0% | 10.1% | 1.98 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.00 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 31.4% | 13.8% | 2.28 | 27.7% | 12.6% | 2.20 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 21.4% | 8.9% | 2.40 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 1.83 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 24.9% | 10.6% | 2.35 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 25.5% | 8.5% | 3.00 | 25.5% | 8.5% | 3.00 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 2.29 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.19 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 1.96 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 21.0% | 8.8% | 2.39 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 2.25 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 15.8% | 7.8% | 2.03 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 2.26 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 24.9% | 10.4% | 2.39 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.19 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 2.22 |
Andrew Heaney has not had a drop in swinging strike rate over the last month, but it has been below 10% in three of his last four.
C.C. Sabathia may have the upside of a league average strikeout rate. His 10.6 SwStr% is his highest since 2012.
Luis Castillo has seen his SwStr% drop more than two points, yet his strikeout rate rise over the last month, but even that’s a little fluky. He had a 4.7 SwStr% against the Pirates last time out. It was only the third time this season he’s been below 11%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 7.14 | 4.42 | -2.72 | 7.14 | -2.82 | 5.22 | -1.92 | 6.65 | -0.49 | 7.90 | 4.22 | -3.68 | 4.17 | -3.73 | 5.18 | -2.72 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 4.22 | 3.66 | -0.56 | 4.22 | -0.78 | 3.31 | -0.91 | 2.95 | -1.27 | 7.13 | 4.16 | -2.97 | 4.02 | -3.11 | 5.30 | -1.83 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 3.64 | 3.87 | 0.23 | 3.64 | 0.26 | 3.69 | 0.05 | 4.62 | 0.98 | 4.02 | 4.46 | 0.44 | 4.78 | 0.76 | 4.30 | 0.28 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.30 | 4.29 | 0.99 | 3.30 | 1.09 | 4.29 | 0.99 | 4.49 | 1.19 | 4.55 | 4.53 | -0.02 | 4.61 | 0.06 | 4.88 | 0.33 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 2.45 | 4.21 | 1.76 | 2.45 | 2.02 | 3.73 | 1.28 | 5.98 | 3.53 | 2.45 | 4.21 | 1.76 | 4.47 | 2.02 | 3.73 | 1.28 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 4.22 | 4.74 | 0.52 | 4.22 | 0.30 | 4.13 | -0.09 | 5.33 | 1.11 | 2.89 | 4.46 | 1.57 | 4.21 | 1.32 | 3.63 | 0.74 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.31 | 3.88 | -0.43 | 4.31 | -0.70 | 3.99 | -0.32 | 4.73 | 0.42 | 3.27 | 3.84 | 0.57 | 3.89 | 0.62 | 4.43 | 1.16 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 4.15 | 3.80 | -0.35 | 4.15 | -0.61 | 4.04 | -0.11 | 3.38 | -0.77 | 5.79 | 3.65 | -2.14 | 3.25 | -2.54 | 3.59 | -2.20 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 5.55 | 5.07 | -0.48 | 5.55 | -0.21 | 5.58 | 0.03 | 7.27 | 1.72 | 3.41 | 5.26 | 1.85 | 5.31 | 1.90 | 4.23 | 0.82 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 4.17 | 4.31 | 0.14 | 4.17 | 0.23 | 4.28 | 0.11 | 5.77 | 1.60 | 6.46 | 4.45 | -2.01 | 4.57 | -1.89 | 4.91 | -1.55 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.42 | 3.97 | -0.45 | 4.42 | -0.57 | 4.16 | -0.26 | 4.40 | -0.02 | 3.18 | 4.42 | 1.24 | 4.39 | 1.21 | 4.86 | 1.68 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 2.66 | 3.43 | 0.77 | 2.66 | 0.94 | 3.53 | 0.87 | 2.73 | 0.07 | 2.96 | 3.58 | 0.62 | 3.8 | 0.84 | 4.15 | 1.19 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 5.89 | 3.33 | -2.56 | 5.89 | -2.86 | 3.14 | -2.75 | 2.71 | -3.18 | 7.11 | 3.59 | -3.52 | 3.23 | -3.88 | 3.49 | -3.62 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.06 | 4.32 | 0.26 | 4.06 | -0.02 | 4.27 | 0.21 | 4.15 | 0.09 | 3.33 | 3.69 | 0.36 | 3.4 | 0.07 | 3.57 | 0.24 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 2.89 | 4.15 | 1.26 | 2.89 | 1.34 | 3.89 | 1.00 | 4.61 | 1.72 | 2.76 | 3.78 | 1.02 | 3.82 | 1.06 | 4.15 | 1.39 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 7.19 | 6.19 | -1.00 | 7.19 | -0.57 | 6.29 | -0.90 | 9.01 | 1.82 | 8.75 | 5.76 | -2.99 | 6.06 | -2.69 | 7.36 | -1.39 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 5.77 | 4.17 | -1.60 | 5.77 | -1.76 | 5.17 | -0.60 | 3.71 | -2.06 | 6.08 | 4.27 | -1.81 | 4.15 | -1.93 | 5.79 | -0.29 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 4.66 | 4.72 | 0.06 | 4.66 | 0.37 | 4.64 | -0.02 | 6.23 | 1.57 | 3.71 | 4.45 | 0.74 | 4.71 | 1.00 | 3.54 | -0.17 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.09 | 4.39 | 0.30 | 4.09 | 0.59 | 4.89 | 0.80 | 4.55 | 0.46 | 3.38 | 4.20 | 0.82 | 4.57 | 1.19 | 4.11 | 0.73 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 5.35 | 4.15 | -1.20 | 5.35 | -0.83 | 4.49 | -0.86 | 6.70 | 1.35 | 4.88 | 4.80 | -0.08 | 4.89 | 0.01 | 4.68 | -0.20 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.48 | 2.96 | -0.52 | 3.48 | -0.71 | 3.08 | -0.40 | 3.04 | -0.44 | 5.28 | 3.32 | -1.96 | 3.06 | -2.22 | 3.32 | -1.96 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 4.21 | 3.95 | -0.26 | 4.21 | 0.14 | 4.29 | 0.08 | 3.71 | -0.50 | 5.20 | 3.65 | -1.55 | 3.81 | -1.39 | 4.86 | -0.34 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 2.70 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.14 | 3.23 | 0.53 | 3.13 | 0.43 | 3.29 | 4.48 | 1.19 | 4.22 | 0.93 | 3.68 | 0.39 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 3.97 | 3.20 | -0.77 | 3.97 | -0.77 | 3.62 | -0.35 | 5.47 | 1.50 | 3.97 | 3.21 | -0.76 | 3.2 | -0.77 | 3.62 | -0.35 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 1.23 | 4.54 | 3.31 | 1.23 | 3.12 | 3.42 | 2.19 | 2.34 | 1.11 | 0.30 | 4.39 | 4.09 | 4.17 | 3.87 | 2.96 | 2.66 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 3.87 | 4.34 | 0.47 | 3.87 | 0.50 | 4.42 | 0.55 | 4.58 | 0.71 | 4.80 | 5.10 | 0.30 | 5.07 | 0.27 | 5.39 | 0.59 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 2.63 | 3.98 | 1.35 | 2.63 | 1.57 | 3.82 | 1.19 | 3.26 | 0.63 | 2.60 | 4.07 | 1.47 | 3.97 | 1.37 | 4.14 | 1.54 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 5.91 | 5.42 | -0.49 | 5.91 | -0.19 | 5.79 | -0.12 | 7.10 | 1.19 | 5.32 | 4.96 | -0.36 | 5.02 | -0.30 | 4.53 | -0.79 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 3.43 | 3.60 | 0.17 | 3.43 | 0.26 | 3.07 | -0.36 | 4.84 | 1.41 | 4.61 | 3.35 | -1.26 | 3.29 | -1.32 | 3.16 | -1.45 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 4.82 | 4.15 | -0.67 | 4.82 | -0.69 | 3.80 | -1.02 | 4.08 | -0.74 | 3.68 | 4.01 | 0.33 | 4.04 | 0.36 | 3.01 | -0.67 |
Alex Wood has a 63% strand rate.
C.C. Sabathia has a .268 BABIP, but he generates a ton of weak contact and it’s in line with his defense. The eight unearned runs, which is nearly a quarter of his total, is the bigger thing and probably moves his ERA near four.
Dallas Keuchel has a .384 BABIP and 61.6 LOB% over the last month. His estimators are the same as they are for the season. From a batted ball perspective his 52.5 GB% and 34.3 Hard% are far from terrible even if a bit worse than what we usually expect. The hard hit rate is really even skewed by 73% in one start against the Yankees.
Jon Gray has a .375 BABIP and 61.2 LOB%. It’s .404 at home with no change in the strand rate. Coors is going to elevate the BABIP and if you look below, he has a 25.6 LD%, but it’s actually lower (22.4%) at home. This just can’t be sustained, even in this park.
Luis Castillo has a 68 LOB% and 21.2 HR/FB.
Sean Newcomb has a .260 BABIP and 7.1 HR/FB. I’m buying a bit. The HR rate is probably a bit too low, but his barreled contact is so far below any other pitcher on the board. (See below for BABIP.)
Zack Wheeler has a .316 BABIP and 67.9 LOB%, though it seems like every runner he’s left for a reliever has scored.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.324 | 0.364 | 0.040 | 50.2% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 91.0% | 37.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.295 | 0.002 | 46.2% | 22.2% | 5.7% | 88.5% | 34.6% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.295 | 0.265 | -0.030 | 39.3% | 22.5% | 16.4% | 86.0% | 38.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.277 | 0.268 | -0.009 | 42.2% | 20.2% | 13.1% | 88.6% | 32.2% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 0.273 | 0.257 | -0.016 | 30.6% | 33.3% | 7.7% | 93.1% | 29.2% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.297 | 0.286 | -0.011 | 39.7% | 25.5% | 3.6% | 85.6% | 38.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.300 | 0.280 | -0.020 | 58.2% | 20.7% | 8.6% | 87.2% | 38.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.271 | 0.297 | 0.026 | 55.6% | 21.2% | 10.3% | 88.5% | 33.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.309 | 0.291 | -0.018 | 30.5% | 22.0% | 10.6% | 88.3% | 40.0% |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.295 | 0.311 | 0.016 | 45.6% | 22.8% | 14.0% | 87.7% | 36.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.296 | 0.307 | 0.011 | 49.6% | 19.3% | 9.5% | 89.8% | 37.6% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.276 | -0.011 | 43.9% | 18.2% | 12.0% | 81.8% | 43.4% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.314 | 0.375 | 0.061 | 45.4% | 25.6% | 13.6% | 84.1% | 36.7% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.262 | 0.272 | 0.010 | 46.9% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 87.4% | 35.5% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.259 | -0.010 | 39.1% | 19.8% | 16.5% | 86.4% | 41.3% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.293 | 0.271 | -0.022 | 39.6% | 17.0% | 11.8% | 87.5% | 41.9% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.298 | 0.298 | 0.000 | 43.7% | 21.4% | 7.5% | 79.0% | 35.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.305 | 0.296 | -0.009 | 26.7% | 19.8% | 14.6% | 84.4% | 42.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 39.6% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 88.3% | 35.1% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.305 | 0.003 | 36.9% | 19.4% | 11.3% | 84.8% | 41.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.274 | -0.003 | 45.5% | 23.2% | 8.6% | 85.2% | 27.4% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.273 | 0.286 | 0.013 | 37.4% | 22.8% | 15.9% | 88.3% | 37.0% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.282 | 0.260 | -0.022 | 50.0% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 81.2% | 37.1% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.284 | 0.471 | 0.187 | 47.2% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 90.0% | 30.5% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.202 | -0.086 | 55.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 82.5% | 41.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.276 | 0.256 | -0.020 | 44.0% | 19.8% | 7.5% | 88.4% | 39.3% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.266 | -0.029 | 36.1% | 20.6% | 7.7% | 85.8% | 25.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.294 | 0.002 | 34.5% | 18.2% | 10.0% | 87.6% | 36.0% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.300 | 0.295 | -0.005 | 35.2% | 24.6% | 8.2% | 84.4% | 42.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.007 | 43.8% | 19.8% | 12.7% | 84.8% | 37.5% |
Andrew Heaney is a fly ball pitcher who generates a lot of popups. His BABIP may be fine.
Jon Gray – see above.
Sean Newcomb not only has a strong BABIP profile (weak ground balls with few line drives and whiffs in the zone), but he’s still within 22 points of his defense.
Zack Wheeler has a poor defense. It was supposed to be improved this year, especially in the infield. Three of the four regulars (with the expectation of Cabrera) should be above average defenders, but perhaps we’re expecting too much at this point. It is what it is. His profile is otherwise favorable more than it isn’t. He gets some popups, suppresses hard contact well without a lot of line drives. It’s not an exceptional profile, but his BABIP shouldn’t be above .300.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.368 | 0.034 | 0.362 | 0.002 | 0.378 | 0.000 | -2.000 | 89.6 | 8.3 | 43.500 | 230 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.310 | -0.022 | 0.292 | -0.027 | 0.388 | -0.039 | -0.300 | 87.5 | 6.1 | 36.400 | 228 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.320 | -0.031 | 0.311 | -0.043 | 0.325 | -0.048 | -1.400 | 85.9 | 8.6 | 38.100 | 197 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.294 | 0.005 | 0.308 | -0.004 | 0.315 | 0.012 | 0.600 | 83.7 | 5.4 | 26.900 | 223 |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 0.342 | -0.074 | 0.342 | -0.074 | -0.400 | 86.2 | 8.3 | 33.300 | 36 | ||
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.375 | -0.059 | 0.389 | -0.040 | 0.363 | -0.072 | -0.100 | 90.6 | 7.4 | 40.900 | 242 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.331 | -0.025 | 0.344 | 0.017 | 0.337 | -0.076 | -2.000 | 89.5 | 5.0 | 38.400 | 281 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.311 | 0.002 | 0.284 | -0.021 | 0.332 | 0.029 | -0.300 | 88 | 5.1 | 34.900 | 295 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.383 | -0.030 | 0.328 | -0.004 | 0.346 | -0.036 | 0.500 | 89.3 | 8.8 | 40.200 | 261 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.357 | -0.027 | 0.379 | -0.073 | 0.381 | -0.020 | -1.100 | 89.4 | 8.0 | 38.700 | 137 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.360 | -0.034 | 0.343 | -0.045 | 0.286 | 0.006 | -1.100 | 90.6 | 9.1 | 44.200 | 242 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.296 | -0.018 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 0.282 | -0.013 | 1.100 | 88.3 | 5.3 | 36.100 | 133 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.029 | 0.301 | 0.017 | 0.306 | 0.057 | 0.500 | 87.5 | 5.6 | 33.500 | 233 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.329 | -0.019 | 0.309 | -0.030 | 0.280 | -0.034 | 0.200 | 89.6 | 5.2 | 42.900 | 212 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.336 | -0.048 | 0.329 | -0.009 | 0.350 | -0.060 | -0.300 | 89.6 | 6.6 | 43.900 | 196 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.391 | -0.024 | 0.348 | -0.003 | 0.404 | -0.020 | 0.000 | 90.3 | 6.8 | 39.800 | 236 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.357 | -0.010 | 0.287 | 0.011 | 0.366 | -0.021 | -1.500 | 88.5 | 10.8 | 41.800 | 232 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.347 | -0.002 | 0.316 | 0.026 | 0.309 | 0.009 | -1.800 | 87.2 | 10.7 | 36.500 | 244 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.339 | 0.005 | 0.332 | 0.036 | 0.349 | 0.022 | -0.800 | 88.5 | 9.6 | 36.400 | 239 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.374 | -0.024 | 0.302 | -0.003 | 0.391 | -0.068 | -1.000 | 88.9 | 13.8 | 39.100 | 225 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.296 | -0.029 | 0.326 | 0.011 | 0.337 | -0.022 | -0.500 | 89.2 | 8.0 | 38.900 | 226 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.342 | -0.032 | 0.301 | -0.017 | 0.370 | -0.033 | -0.800 | 86.6 | 7.8 | 27.700 | 206 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.275 | -0.009 | 0.323 | -0.001 | 0.289 | -0.013 | -1.200 | 85.9 | 2.9 | 29.200 | 209 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.353 | 0.064 | 0.294 | 0.112 | 0.353 | 0.064 | 0.300 | 92.8 | 8.3 | 55.600 | 36 |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 0.287 | -0.058 | 0.327 | 0.031 | 0.283 | -0.064 | -1.000 | 86.2 | 5.3 | 27.400 | 95 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.340 | -0.038 | 0.319 | -0.001 | 0.348 | -0.004 | -1.200 | 87.2 | 5.8 | 34.500 | 258 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.330 | -0.048 | 0.356 | -0.048 | 0.344 | -0.050 | -0.300 | 87.5 | 6.6 | 36.500 | 181 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.331 | 0.034 | 0.333 | 0.019 | 0.306 | 0.008 | -0.600 | 86.7 | 5.3 | 34.200 | 152 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.321 | -0.034 | 0.335 | -0.013 | 0.335 | -0.023 | 0.100 | 87.3 | 6.3 | 38.900 | 126 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.327 | -0.016 | 0.350 | -0.006 | 0.292 | -0.014 | 0.800 | 85.8 | 6.7 | 30.900 | 223 |
Nobody comes close to, like within two miles per hour, of C.C. Sabathia in exit velocity.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a really tough board. REALLY tough board. Not only does nobody stand out, but there’s no separation. Even most of the pitchers that were left off today where difficult decisions or guys I’d have expected to use before digging in. Overall, this is one of the weakest full slates I’ve seen. Everything (EVERYTHING) just seems kind of mediocre. I’m not even going to give pitchers overall grades today because they guy I’d give #1 to today (Keuchel) may not even be ranked on a normal day and I don’t have a ton of confidence in anybody and hate most of the pricing.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel is reasonably priced (around $8.5K) on either site in a great matchup, probably the top run prevention spot on the board. If he copies what he did against the Royals in his last start (6 IP – 0 ER – 5 K) in a much more favorable run environment, he’ll be fine. His strikeout rate is not ideally what we look for and the matchup doesn’t offer a high upside for them either, but this is a tough board.
Value Tier Two
Jon Gray has certainly had his struggles at Coors and overall this year, but have faith in regression. There’s still a lot of upside here at a low price and the BABIP just can’t remain that high. No matchup at Coors is ideal, but this is about as good as it gets unless he were able to face his own lineup perhaps.
Value Tier Three
Sean Newcomb is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and while that cost is still not incredibly high, he’s more a contact suppressor than an enormous swing-and-miss guy and the Orioles don’t strike out a ton against LHP. They’re not good and he certainly is, but I’m not sure we’re going to find the upside here a lot of people may expect. He may shut them out through six innings but only generate five or six Ks.
Zack Wheeler faces a good offense, but in a favorable park. He’s still very affordable because either he keeps having that one inning where he loses focus (or whatever) or the bullpen has not been kind with inherited runners…or both. A league average strikeout rate, quality contact management and doing deep into most games is something you’d expect to pay more than $8K for.
Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent and struggled a bit as of late, but can still pull off eight innings with eight strikeouts, as he did last time out. That kind of upside is not going to be found in many arms tonight in a reasonable or better spot for less than $9K.
Shane Bieber has been solid in two major league starts and has exceptional minor league peripherals, though mostly control based. The Tigers don’t walk or hit for power, but do make contact more often than most teams. There’s still probably some upside here for $6.6K on FanDuel, but DraftKings has him not far below $9K, where he still may be useable (5.2 IP in each of his two MLB starts, more than six in seven of 12 minor league starts this year), but it’s a bit tougher.
Alex Wood may be one of the top values on the board if we completely believe the overall numbers, but I’m going to slightly buy into recent performance a bit more (for both him and the Mets). At $7.4K on FanDuel, he’s still reasonable in a great spot. It’s hard to pay $9.1K for a struggling five-inning pitcher though.
C.C. Sabathia is hard to buy into as a $9K pitcher, but the recent performance has been great and he’s still $7.5K on FanDuel with seven inning upside against a struggling offense with a park upgrade tonight.
Luis Castillo is incredibly dangerous against a good offense, though it’s not necessarily power you have to worry about, but he costs just $5.8K on DK with the highest SwStr% on the board. That’s tough to completely ignore on a board lacking much upside. If he hauls off 10 Ks here and keeps the ball in the park, you may have just won a GPP. The chances of that happening are not good, but probably far from zero.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Patrick Corbin is the most expensive pitcher on the board. He may be over-priced for this spot, but how can you take the highest upside pitcher and only one above a 28% strikeout rate this year (along with a sub-.300 xwOBA) off the board?
Clayton Richard is in a favorable matchup with the park adjustment. His cost is now around $8K and you may not get a ton of strikeouts, but there’s going to be a ton of ground balls and a decent shot at seven innings with improved effectiveness against RHBs.
Ivan Nova is just $6.2K on DraftKings in a nice spot, where he could serve as an SP2 if paying up for…well, I’m not too sure who that would be today.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.