Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 18th
UPDATE: Sean Newcomb has been scratched; Matt Wisler will start tonight.
With 30 pitchers to get through, let’s sacrifice some words here to include more important information below and get right to it.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | -7.3 | 4.49 | 5.8 | 49.2% | 1.10 | 4.66 | 3.38 | Red Sox | 115 | 117 | 93 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -2.8 | 4.50 | 5.2 | 40.4% | 0.93 | 4.73 | 4.80 | Angels | 94 | 107 | 62 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 5.1 | 4.41 | 5.0 | 40.9% | 1.05 | 4.24 | 4.33 | Twins | 87 | 101 | 69 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | -1.8 | 4.91 | 4.1 | 50.5% | 1.04 | 4.24 | 5.38 | Blue Jays | 100 | 88 | 98 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | -1.8 | 5.33 | 3.9 | 32.8% | 0.98 | 6.37 | 5.15 | Rangers | 81 | 78 | 42 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 6.2 | 4.30 | 5.7 | 49.7% | 1.04 | 4.28 | 2.56 | Royals | 88 | 98 | 87 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 7.4 | 3.52 | 5.9 | 53.1% | 0.87 | 3.22 | 2.59 | Indians | 82 | 97 | 142 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -5 | 4.62 | 5.6 | 32.4% | 0.99 | 4.61 | 6.05 | Braves | 102 | 106 | 115 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -9.4 | 5.23 | 5.2 | 38.4% | 0.93 | 5.37 | 5.36 | Rockies | 79 | 95 | 77 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 4.9 | 4.15 | 5.5 | 44.0% | 1.10 | 4.02 | 4.72 | Orioles | 74 | 96 | 116 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -3 | 4.49 | 5.7 | 45.9% | 0.92 | 4.09 | 4.62 | Tigers | 93 | 93 | 98 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -3.8 | 4.94 | 4.9 | 42.6% | 1.01 | 5.31 | 5.09 | Cubs | 94 | 105 | 114 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | -2.3 | 4.14 | 5.9 | 47.7% | 0.98 | 4.07 | 5.12 | Padres | 77 | 83 | 95 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -1 | 3.38 | 6.3 | 45.0% | 0.92 | 2.96 | 12.32 | Diamondbacks | 98 | 78 | 29 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -3.3 | 4.18 | 5.9 | 49.0% | 0.92 | 4.20 | 4.99 | Cardinals | 89 | 93 | 96 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | -0.7 | 4.31 | 6.0 | 39.4% | 1.04 | 4.23 | 3.46 | Yankees | 91 | 113 | 129 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 14.7 | 4.00 | 5.8 | 45.8% | 1.01 | 4.24 | 5.58 | Reds | 93 | 110 | 119 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.2 | 4.77 | 5.5 | 52.3% | 0.93 | 4.92 | 3.83 | Giants | 111 | 95 | 124 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | -4 | 4.56 | 5.7 | 48.8% | 1.05 | 4.34 | 4.06 | Brewers | 93 | 96 | 117 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -2.7 | 4.62 | 5.7 | 29.6% | 1.04 | 5.28 | 5.84 | Athletics | 112 | 109 | 130 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 4.77 | 5.6 | 37.3% | 0.98 | 5.37 | 4.47 | White Sox | 91 | 81 | 68 | |
| Max Fried | Braves | 4.5 | 4.19 | 4.5 | 60.2% | 0.99 | 4.01 | 2.63 | Marlins | 67 | 94 | 106 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -5 | 2.87 | 6.6 | 33.9% | 1.01 | 3.07 | 1.15 | Dodgers | 100 | 103 | 92 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4 | 4.26 | 6.3 | 49.2% | 0.92 | 4.04 | 3.97 | Mariners | 97 | 101 | 98 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 1.2 | 4.26 | 5.4 | 46.6% | 0.92 | 3.79 | 4.19 | Phillies | 86 | 98 | 116 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 11.8 | 4.32 | 5.3 | 41.1% | 0.87 | 4.24 | 3.31 | Astros | 87 | 101 | 71 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 3.7 | 4.56 | 5.6 | 36.7% | 0.93 | 5.24 | 6.71 | Rays | 107 | 101 | 116 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -3.6 | 3.66 | 4.7 | 49.5% | 1.01 | 3.50 | 2.54 | Nationals | 97 | 106 | 104 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -6.6 | 4.97 | 5.2 | 45.6% | 0.98 | 4.45 | 3.98 | Pirates | 123 | 103 | 137 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 8.4 | 3.88 | 5.9 | 54.2% | 0.92 | 3.37 | 4.71 | Mets | 98 | 106 | 126 |
Blake Snell allowed five runs (three home runs) and struck out just three Orioles in 3.1 innings his last time out. It was the first time he’d allowed more than two runs or gone less than six innings since his second start of the season. He has now struck out just 12 of his last 69 batters, but still has an above average SwStr% in every start this season. More than one-third of his pitches were change-ups (.305 wOBA, .365 xwOBA, 25.6 Whff%) in his last start, a season high against a predominantly right-handed lineup. It may be a similar approach against a similarly oriented offense, but perhaps the curveball would be the superior option as it seems the much better pitch (.186 wOBA, .123 xwOBA, 44.3 Whiff%). The Angels have just a 19 K% vs LHP, but it’s a negative run environment and they have been struggling.
C.C. Sabathia allowed a season-high four runs against the Red Sox last time out and failed to surpass five innings for the fourth time in seven starts, but it also snapped a streak of three straight starts of at least six innings. He misses bats often enough to be useful in the right spots, though this may or may not be such a spot considering the contrast in Kansas City’s strikeout rates against right and left-handed pitchers (22.8% vs the latter, which they do without a lot of walks or power). It’s a neutral overall matchup, but a great contact manager (84.6 mph aEV is third best today) in a power suppressing park. He’s one of six pitchers with a sub-.300 xwOBA.
Charlie Morton has brought a chair to the big boys table this season. He equals deGrom and trails only Scherzer by strikeout and swinging strike rates on today’s board and he’s combined that with great contact management. His 2.7% Barrels/BBE is best on the board. His .243 xwOBA is second. He struck out a season high 14 in his last start. He’s gone seven innings and struck out double-digit batters each three times over his last six starts with a couple of much rougher starts (9 IP – 7 ER – 3 HR – 9 BB – 5 K) in between. He faces the hottest offense in the league (142 wRC+, 3.7 K-BB% last seven days), but does so in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Jacob deGrom returned from a short DL stint (hyper-extended elbow) in spectacular fashion in Philadelphia. He threw 45 pitches, all in the first inning, walking three, striking out two and escaping without a run. Now that that’s out of the way, the only real concern here is that he hasn’t thrown more than 46 pitches since April 27th, but had been regularly surpassing 100 up until that point. His strikeouts and swinging strike are in league with Morton, behind only Scherzer today, but his .239 xwOBA and 23.3% 95+ mph aEV is best on the board. He had been on fire prior to the DL stint, combining elite swing and miss stuff with exceptional contact management. He also may have the top park adjusted matchup on the board. The Diamondbacks have a 25.3 K% against RHP and are the coldest offense on the board (29 wRC+, 30 K%, 5.4 HR/FB last seven days). His 2.96 xFIP at home since last season is the best split on the board.
Jake Arrieta has pitched into the seventh inning in four of his last six starts and gets batters to pound the ball into the ground (57.9 GB%) weakly (86.3 mph aEV), which has led to a 3.3% Barrels/BBE. However, he’s exceeded two strikeouts in just two of those six starts and has more than five just once this year. He seems content to throw sinker after sinker after sinker (62.5%) and allow a marginal defense to take care of the rest. The matchup is somewhat in his favor in St Louis. Right-handed batters have a 60.6 GB% and -2.8 Hard-Soft% against him this year, but just a 4.3 K-BB%.
Kyle Freeland has allowed a total of three runs in three road starts this year. He’s increased his strikeouts at the cost of some ground balls, but his extreme splits are what you really want to look at, especially as he’s likely to face a predominantly right-handed lineup in San Francisco tonight. His K-BB is 26.6 points higher against LHBs. His ground ball rate is 45.5% against RHBs this season, but with a 1.7 Hard-Soft%. He’s been one of the top contact managers on the board as a .301 xwOBA suggests. He’s an above average pitcher outside of Coors. The Giants haven’t been pushovers this year. The park still keeps this matchup in his favor though.
Kyle Gibson has finally embraced the strikeout with a decline in sinker usage this season at the age of 30. Actually, this began last year. He’s always missed bats at an acceptable rate at least, but this organization screwed him up with their previous pitch to contact philosophy. His 26.5 K% is fifth on the board. The matchup is not fantastic in a positive run environment and the Brewers gaining a DH, but the offense is banged up so it may end up being someone like Hernan Perez.
Max Scherzer has extra days rest after the rainout two days ago. He may want to pitch 10 innings tonight. He has at least seven strikeouts in every start and only that few his second time out, which is also the only time he did not finish six innings.
Michael Fulmer has been hit hard over his last two starts (10 IP – 11 ER – 3 HR – 6 BB – 12 K – 45 BF) in which his velocity has increased back up to last year’s levels. He has a 13.2 SwStr% over the last month and is even getting swings at more than 40% of pitches outside the strike zone in these last two starts, but that’s dropped the number of pitches he’s thrown inside the zone below 40%. Hence, the walks and then he starts throwing his sinker more in an attempt to generate ground balls. He has the stuff to figure it out, as the increased velocity and swinging strike rate suggests, and he’s facing a Seattle offense down their third and fourth hitters in a favorable park.
Michael Wacha has not allowed more than two runs in five straight starts, but has only pitched into the seventh once this season and only completed six three times while striking out more than five once as well. He’s missing bats at a league average rate and may be a league average arm as the sum of his estimators suggest, but you’re only going to get five to six innings of that. That may be enough in a negative run environment against an offense with a 26.3 K% vs RHP.
Mike Clevinger has struck out more than five just twice in eight starts this year. However, he’s cut his walk rate in half, has pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last seven starts, and has an 11% or better swinging strike rate in each of his last six starts. Also, those two outings with more than five strikeouts have come in his last three starts. He’s probably not as good as his ERA. There are going to be some home runs, but it looks like he set out to correct an issue (his walk rate) and has done so, while he’s now comfortably gaining back the swings and misses too. Cleveland just keeps churning out quality pitchers. The matchup should be a concern, except that it’s really not been this year. Houston is an extremely negative run environment and the Astros have been just league average against RHP.
Zack Godley hasn’t been bad, but he has taken a step back. Perhaps more of one than people think when considering the humidor effects. Oddly, he’s faced the Dodgers in half of his eight starts and despite their struggles this year, it’s still a good offense and that kind of familiarity has to cause some issues. His Z-Contact% is highest on the board (92.9%), which is where the decrease in SwStr% comes from, but he’s still missing bats at an average rate and generating grounders on more than 50% of batted balls. He’s also facing a Mets offense down a couple of middle of the order bats, both right-handed, a side which he’s actually performed slightly worse against in his career and this season.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Ross Stripling (.350 – 88.4% – 6.7) pitched into the sixth inning in his second consecutive start last time out, but his starts have come against Arizona, San Diego and Cincinnati, all in negative run environments (which Arizona may be now). He hasn’t been bad, as his .267 xwOBA attests to, and could be of some value for just $4.2K on DraftKings if paying up for his opponent, if you don’t consider that counter-productive, but this will be his most challenging spot do date.
Nick Tropeano (.253 – 75.5 – 8.8) throws a bunch of different fastballs (four-seam, sinker, splitter), but that’s the majority of his arsenal and could be a problem against this Tampa Bay offense that has handled the heater quite well.
Jon Lester (.266 – 81.5% – 10.4) is a strand rate away from an ERA close to five with an 8.5 K-BB% this season. The Cincinnati offense has been proficient against LHP.
Jakob Junis (.226 – 88.7% – 16.7) has completed seven innings in half of his starts, but is in a dangerous spot against the Yankees. Kansas City plays well for fly ball pitchers, but he’s still allowed nine of his 11 home runs at home in four starts this year.
Dan Straily (.211 – 81.5% – 23.5) is a mess, but probably isn’t this bad. Keep in mind that his estimators are well above a terrible ERA at this point. An 8.68 FIP and .450 xwOBA are among the worst numbers ever seen. Even Chris Tillman won’t talk to him.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ivan Nova has been awful in recent starts (12.1 IP – 25 H – 14 ER – 4 HR – 4 BB – 9 BB – .484 wOBA – 41.5 Hard%), but may merit some consideration on DraftKings at $6.4K against the Padres (26.9 K% vs RHP).
Tyson Ross is a surprise, at least to me, in this spot. He’s been a guy who’s made sharp DFS players some money this year. He’s completed six innings in all, but one start, but has out-pitched his SwStr% over the last month and now costs $9.5K on DraftKings in what may be a terrible spot. Look at how good the Pirates have been, plus they don’t strike out.
Felix Hernandez faces the Tigers, which may give people some ideas. Then the numbers (37.8 GB%, 10 HRs, 10.1 BB%, 92.2 Z-Contact%) confirm what his ERA and estimators say about him. Even the matchup (which is not high strikeout by the way) and low cost probably don’t get him there today.
Max Fried could become interesting at some point in time and nearly is here against the Marlins for the minimum cost, but has not thrown more than four innings in any outing (minors or majors) in exactly a month. A path to five useful innings is conceivable though, if that’s what you’re looking to pair with Scherzer.
Brent Suter has the lowest aEV on the board (84 mph), but has not exceeded five innings or a 6.7 SwStr% in five starts.
Matt Moore has been absolutely awful pitching in Texas and with road starts in Houston, Cleveland, Toronto and Tampa Bay. He was actually quite decent with seven innings and no earned runs (six strikeouts) in that Tampa Bay start. The point being a 10.6 SwStr% and, finally, a decent spot keeps him off the absolute bottom of the board, even if we still have absolutely no intention of using him.
Derek Holland is coming off his best start by results (6.1 IP – 0 ER – 7 K), but walked five in that game. A great park has made him look competent this year and could do so again, but he’s still not a pitcher you should want to use, especially attacking the Rockies from their more competent side as well.
Drew Pomeranz looked like things may have started coming together in recent starts, but then…no. He walked a season-high five last time out and lasted just four innings in Toronto. The strikeouts aren’t real (7.1 SwStr%) and the velocity remains down over two miles per hour. His 13.1% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 5.8% | 14.9% | 20.6% | Season | 11.4% | 4.3% | 20.0% | 19.5% | Road | 14.3% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 22.1% | L14Days | 21.3% | 2.1% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | Season | 25.7% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 12.4% | Road | 20.9% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 11.9% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 36.4% | 21.9% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 5.8% | 12.0% | 9.3% | Season | 16.2% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 15.2% | Road | 15.5% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | L14Days | 16.0% | 4.0% | 28.6% | 43.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 13.4% | 8.1% | 17.9% | 14.4% | Season | 11.8% | 8.8% | 21.4% | 16.6% | Road | 15.3% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | L14Days | 9.1% | 11.4% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 12.5% | Season | 18.4% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 17.4% | Home | 21.4% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 13.2% | L14Days | 27.3% | 18.2% | 55.6% | 29.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 2.0% | Season | 18.8% | 3.4% | 9.3% | 0.9% | Road | 17.4% | 8.3% | 12.5% | -3.3% | L14Days | 29.3% | 10.0% | -10.4% | |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.8% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.8% | Season | 32.3% | 8.9% | 22.2% | Home | 28.7% | 8.4% | 18.9% | 2.1% | L14Days | 36.2% | 8.5% | 28.6% | 16.0% | |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 17.5% | Season | 12.9% | 17.7% | 23.5% | 42.9% | Road | 21.9% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 12.3% | L14Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 40.8% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 18.8% | Season | 22.3% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 23.9% | Home | 19.1% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 19.7% | L14Days | 20.4% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 12.8% | Season | 23.4% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | Home | 24.1% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 17.1% | L14Days | 26.1% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 13.6% | Season | 20.6% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 15.2% | Home | 22.4% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 9.7% | L14Days | 21.8% | 10.9% | 21.4% | 22.9% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 17.7% | Season | 13.4% | 6.9% | 17.4% | 24.5% | Home | 13.6% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 18.9% | L14Days | 14.6% | 6.3% | 26.7% | 23.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 4.4% | 15.9% | 18.1% | Season | 17.8% | 3.7% | 15.7% | 20.6% | Home | 15.0% | 3.7% | 10.5% | 14.6% | L14Days | 10.5% | 5.3% | 22.2% | 31.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.4% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 8.9% | Season | 32.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | -5.8% | Home | 32.2% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 6.7% | L14Days | 33.3% | 50.0% | -100.0% | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 22.3% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 6.2% | Season | 16.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | Road | 21.6% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 10.5% | L14Days | 14.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | ||
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 5.7% | 13.8% | 18.6% | Season | 21.7% | 5.3% | 16.7% | 16.2% | Home | 22.0% | 6.1% | 18.2% | 19.4% | L14Days | 27.8% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 33.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 8.9% | Season | 19.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 18.6% | Road | 21.2% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 10.6% | L14Days | 19.6% | 15.2% | 7.7% | 40.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 6.7% | Season | 22.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | Road | 15.5% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 11.7% | L14Days | 26.4% | 9.4% | ||
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 18.8% | Season | 26.5% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 25.2% | Home | 17.9% | 8.5% | 18.1% | 23.5% | L14Days | 26.9% | 11.5% | 25.0% | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.2% | Season | 18.1% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 16.5% | Home | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 8.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 22.8% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 19.7% | Season | 14.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 37.9% | Road | 17.6% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 23.9% | L14Days | 21.7% | 10.9% | 20.0% | 41.9% |
| Max Fried | Braves | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 10.2% | 28.6% | 14.1% | Season | 26.9% | 11.5% | 42.9% | 43.7% | Home | 15.9% | 6.8% | 33.3% | 18.1% | L14Days | 33.3% | 8.3% | 33.3% | 14.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 34.1% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | Season | 40.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 11.9% | Home | 36.1% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 3.7% | L14Days | 51.0% | 3.9% | 11.1% | 22.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 11.7% | Season | 20.2% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 18.4% | Road | 19.1% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 4.6% | L14Days | 26.7% | 13.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 10.6% | Season | 19.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 24.0% | Home | 22.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 10.7% | L14Days | 22.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 25.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 14.1% | Season | 21.2% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 12.0% | Road | 26.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 17.1% | L14Days | 27.3% | 7.3% | 25.0% | |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 27.7% | Season | 18.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 32.9% | Home | 14.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 25.4% | L14Days | 8.3% | 12.5% | 26.3% | |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 6.3% | 13.5% | 9.2% | Season | 25.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | Road | 24.0% | 7.2% | 21.4% | 9.1% | L14Days | 31.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 19.3% | Season | 26.6% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 21.4% | Road | 26.3% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 17.0% | L14Days | 25.5% | 9.8% | 20.0% | 34.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 12.7% | Season | 21.6% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 7.3% | Road | 25.1% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 8.3% | L14Days | 18.9% | 9.4% | 26.7% | 7.8% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 18.0% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 18.7% | RH | 18.5% | 7.9% | 14.6% | 21.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Home | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 21.1% | LH | 19.0% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 13.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 22.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 17.7% | LH | 24.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 23.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 14.9% | LH | 22.8% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 15.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.9% | 6.1% | 16.2% | 18.1% | RH | 26.4% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 21.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Royals | Home | 17.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 23.0% | LH | 22.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 16.7% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 28.9% |
| Indians | Road | 24.0% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 17.3% | RH | 23.8% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 22.7% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 29.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 19.3% | RH | 20.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 16.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 13.0% | 20.4% | 36.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 10.6% | LH | 24.9% | 9.7% | 19.5% | 16.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 28.1% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 15.5% | LH | 23.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 14.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.1% | 22.6% | 14.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 17.6% | RH | 20.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 22.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 25.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.9% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 16.2% | RH | 21.1% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 15.8% |
| Padres | Road | 28.3% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 11.5% | RH | 26.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 15.6% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 15.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.2% | 9.8% | 16.8% | 13.2% | RH | 25.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 15.1% | L7Days | 30.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 23.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 21.0% | RH | 23.4% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 19.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 26.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 25.6% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 10.9% | RH | 23.4% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 18.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 24.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 18.7% | LH | 20.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 20.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.3% | 21.3% | 19.3% |
| Giants | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 25.3% | LH | 24.6% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 21.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 31.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.5% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 13.6% | RH | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 15.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.1% | 23.8% | 24.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.5% | 8.2% | 18.3% | 23.5% | RH | 23.9% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 23.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.4% | 20.3% | 16.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.5% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.2% | LH | 27.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 23.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 26.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 7.1% | LH | 20.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.5% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 19.5% | RH | 21.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 21.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.2% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 8.3% | RH | 20.3% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 18.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 24.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.6% | RH | 26.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Astros | Home | 23.5% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 11.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 22.9% |
| Rays | Road | 21.5% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 12.5% | RH | 21.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 16.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 16.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.2% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 11.1% | RH | 19.7% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 15.9% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 26.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Mets | Home | 23.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 14.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 3.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 11.4% | 5.9% | 1.93 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.02 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 25.7% | 13.5% | 1.90 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 1.65 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 16.2% | 7.3% | 2.22 | 16.0% | 5.4% | 2.96 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 11.8% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 1.34 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 18.4% | 6.7% | 2.75 | 18.2% | 6.5% | 2.80 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.83 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 2.01 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 32.3% | 13.8% | 2.34 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 2.63 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 12.9% | 10.1% | 1.28 | 12.9% | 10.1% | 1.28 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 22.3% | 7.9% | 2.82 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.38 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 23.4% | 7.1% | 3.30 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 3.30 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 20.6% | 8.0% | 2.58 | 23.8% | 8.1% | 2.94 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 13.4% | 7.1% | 1.89 | 10.9% | 6.8% | 1.60 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.80 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 32.0% | 14.8% | 2.16 | 35.1% | 15.1% | 2.32 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.62 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 2.72 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.28 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.37 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 19.2% | 9.7% | 1.98 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.33 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.17 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 1.97 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 26.5% | 12.4% | 2.14 | 30.8% | 14.0% | 2.20 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.1% | 9.7% | 1.87 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.12 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 14.8% | 9.5% | 1.56 | 15.2% | 10.6% | 1.43 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 26.9% | 12.8% | 2.10 | 26.9% | 12.8% | 2.10 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 40.4% | 17.6% | 2.30 | 42.1% | 17.1% | 2.46 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 20.2% | 11.0% | 1.84 | 24.6% | 13.2% | 1.86 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.03 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 1.90 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 21.2% | 11.8% | 1.80 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 1.62 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 18.8% | 10.4% | 1.81 | 17.6% | 10.4% | 1.69 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 25.4% | 9.2% | 2.76 | 26.9% | 11.4% | 2.36 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 26.6% | 10.3% | 2.58 | 31.5% | 10.9% | 2.89 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 21.6% | 10.4% | 2.08 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.33 |
Without much interest in any of the guys who are out of line, there’s not much to talk about here today. Increases over the last month have been noted in other spots.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 7.06 | 4.49 | -2.57 | 7.06 | -2.62 | 5.43 | -1.63 | 8.46 | 1.40 | 5.61 | 4.04 | -1.57 | 4.13 | -1.48 | 4.62 | -0.99 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 3.12 | 3.75 | 0.63 | 3.12 | 0.73 | 4.03 | 0.91 | 2.86 | -0.26 | 3.23 | 3.83 | 0.60 | 3.84 | 0.61 | 4.09 | 0.86 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 5.14 | 4.51 | -0.63 | 5.14 | -0.77 | 4.67 | -0.47 | 5.69 | 0.55 | 5.40 | 4.41 | -0.99 | 4.34 | -1.06 | 6.05 | 0.65 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 8.16 | 5.00 | -3.16 | 8.16 | -3.28 | 6.00 | -2.16 | 8.69 | 0.53 | 8.16 | 5.01 | -3.15 | 4.88 | -3.28 | 6.00 | -2.16 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 6.23 | 5.39 | -0.84 | 6.23 | -0.16 | 6.97 | 0.74 | 10.00 | 3.77 | 6.97 | 5.52 | -1.45 | 6.29 | -0.68 | 8.32 | 1.35 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 2.23 | 3.98 | 1.75 | 2.23 | 1.88 | 3.61 | 1.38 | 3.49 | 1.26 | 1.65 | 3.86 | 2.21 | 3.96 | 2.31 | 2.52 | 0.87 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.03 | 2.94 | 0.91 | 2.03 | 0.71 | 3.43 | 1.40 | 1.74 | -0.29 | 2.64 | 3.11 | 0.47 | 2.86 | 0.22 | 3.60 | 0.96 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 5.54 | 6.85 | 1.31 | 5.54 | 1.28 | 8.68 | 3.14 | 6.21 | 0.67 | 5.54 | 6.85 | 1.31 | 6.82 | 1.28 | 8.68 | 3.14 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.79 | 4.59 | -0.20 | 4.79 | 0.06 | 4.84 | 0.05 | 5.76 | 0.97 | 4.91 | 4.88 | -0.03 | 5.04 | 0.13 | 5.91 | 1.00 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 5.47 | 4.49 | -0.98 | 5.47 | -0.87 | 5.25 | -0.22 | 5.94 | 0.47 | 5.47 | 4.50 | -0.97 | 4.6 | -0.87 | 5.25 | -0.22 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.66 | 4.60 | -1.06 | 5.66 | -0.88 | 5.60 | -0.06 | 5.88 | 0.22 | 5.79 | 4.36 | -1.43 | 4.46 | -1.33 | 5.14 | -0.65 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 5.59 | 5.18 | -0.41 | 5.59 | -0.32 | 6.17 | 0.58 | 5.74 | 0.15 | 7.66 | 5.45 | -2.21 | 5.59 | -2.07 | 8.21 | 0.55 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 5.01 | 3.97 | -1.04 | 5.01 | -1.16 | 4.26 | -0.75 | 4.12 | -0.89 | 5.13 | 4.08 | -1.05 | 3.67 | -1.46 | 4.28 | -0.85 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.83 | 3.01 | 1.18 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 2.20 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 2.59 | 4.47 | 1.88 | 2.59 | 1.64 | 3.48 | 0.89 | 4.16 | 1.57 | 2.32 | 4.47 | 2.15 | 4.23 | 1.91 | 3.18 | 0.86 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.53 | 3.97 | 0.44 | 3.53 | 0.79 | 5.01 | 1.48 | 4.84 | 1.31 | 4.45 | 3.95 | -0.50 | 4.12 | -0.33 | 5.22 | 0.77 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 2.66 | 4.86 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 2.20 | 4.55 | 1.89 | 4.05 | 1.39 | 1.82 | 4.89 | 3.07 | 5.07 | 3.25 | 4.73 | 2.91 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.42 | 4.14 | 0.72 | 3.42 | 0.63 | 3.74 | 0.32 | 2.70 | -0.72 | 2.87 | 3.99 | 1.12 | 3.87 | 1.00 | 2.67 | -0.20 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.43 | 4.05 | 0.62 | 3.43 | 0.44 | 3.10 | -0.33 | 4.22 | 0.79 | 3.30 | 3.37 | 0.07 | 3.22 | -0.08 | 2.94 | -0.36 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 5.32 | 5.12 | -0.20 | 5.32 | 0.12 | 5.58 | 0.26 | 8.02 | 2.70 | 6.00 | 5.34 | -0.66 | 5.58 | -0.42 | 5.92 | -0.08 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 7.82 | 5.27 | -2.55 | 7.82 | -2.04 | 5.38 | -2.44 | 8.55 | 0.73 | 7.36 | 5.00 | -2.36 | 5.28 | -2.08 | 5.72 | -1.64 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 6.00 | 3.75 | -2.25 | 6.00 | -1.78 | 8.81 | 2.81 | 4.88 | -1.12 | 6.00 | 3.75 | -2.25 | 4.22 | -1.78 | 8.81 | 2.81 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.69 | 2.12 | 0.43 | 1.69 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 0.06 | 1.35 | -0.34 | 1.99 | 2.11 | 0.12 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 1.75 | -0.24 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.37 | 4.12 | -0.25 | 4.37 | -0.46 | 4.34 | -0.03 | 4.82 | 0.45 | 4.66 | 3.73 | -0.93 | 3.45 | -1.21 | 4.01 | -0.65 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 3.09 | 4.65 | 1.56 | 3.09 | 1.13 | 3.76 | 0.67 | 4.07 | 0.98 | 1.86 | 4.18 | 2.32 | 3.77 | 1.91 | 2.87 | 1.01 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 2.70 | 4.01 | 1.31 | 2.70 | 1.14 | 2.77 | 0.07 | 3.01 | 0.31 | 2.70 | 3.85 | 1.15 | 3.63 | 0.93 | 2.52 | -0.18 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 3.64 | 4.88 | 1.24 | 3.64 | 1.21 | 4.29 | 0.65 | 4.29 | 0.65 | 4.70 | 5.15 | 0.45 | 5.18 | 0.48 | 4.88 | 0.18 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 2.20 | 3.49 | 1.29 | 2.20 | 1.43 | 2.83 | 0.63 | 2.55 | 0.35 | 2.95 | 3.58 | 0.63 | 3.6 | 0.65 | 3.42 | 0.47 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.40 | 3.67 | 0.27 | 3.40 | -0.02 | 3.27 | -0.13 | 3.58 | 0.18 | 3.34 | 3.54 | 0.20 | 3.3 | -0.04 | 2.91 | -0.43 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.08 | 4.14 | 0.06 | 4.08 | -0.29 | 4.20 | 0.12 | 3.88 | -0.20 | 4.76 | 4.27 | -0.49 | 3.95 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 0.04 |
Blake Snell has a .233 BABIP and 84.1 LOB% that will regress.
C.C. Sabathia has a .255 BABIP and four of his 13 runs allowed have been unearned this season.
Charlie Morton has an exceptionally odd line that includes a .231 BABIP, 91.4 LOB% and 22.2 HR/FB. The strand rate is the easy regression candidate. The home run rate, well, between the strikeouts and ground balls, he’s only allowed 27 fly balls this year.
Jacob deGrom has an 83.7 LOB%, partially due to his magic trick in his return from the DL. Perhaps that drops a few points with a 6.9 HR/FB that’s also likely to rise, but the stuff has been incredible when he’s on.
Jake Arrieta has a .231 BABIP and 5.7 HR/FB. That’s probably not sustainable, but there’s a willingness to meet him in some middle ground below his estimators due to strong contact management skills exhibited across several seasons.
Michael Wacha has a 76.6 HR/FB that’s not absurd, but four points above his career rate and an 8.3 HR/FB. It’s been 11+ in each of the last three years.
Mike Clevinger has a 3.9 HR/FB, which is why his FIP matches his ERA.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.323 | 0.384 | 0.061 | 53.8% | 20.5% | 6.7% | 91.6% | 40.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.283 | 0.233 | -0.050 | 37.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% | 82.3% | 35.6% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.267 | 0.307 | 0.040 | 31.9% | 33.3% | 18.8% | 89.6% | 31.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.292 | 0.392 | 0.100 | 55.6% | 18.5% | 21.4% | 88.1% | 41.6% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 31.6% | 20.4% | 8.5% | 91.1% | 40.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.286 | 0.255 | -0.031 | 45.6% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 89.7% | 30.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.261 | 0.231 | -0.030 | 57.8% | 17.4% | 18.5% | 77.4% | 32.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.296 | 0.211 | -0.085 | 29.3% | 29.3% | 5.9% | 87.7% | 46.5% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.290 | 0.245 | -0.045 | 35.7% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 88.9% | 43.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.290 | 0.343 | 0.053 | 37.5% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 92.6% | 37.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.303 | 0.279 | -0.024 | 37.8% | 23.8% | 5.5% | 92.2% | 30.1% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.294 | 0.270 | -0.024 | 37.8% | 20.1% | 8.7% | 91.7% | 39.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.321 | 0.023 | 47.6% | 22.0% | 9.8% | 87.5% | 36.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.299 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 45.5% | 25.7% | 27.6% | 78.0% | 36.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.287 | 0.231 | -0.056 | 57.9% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 87.5% | 29.4% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.307 | 0.226 | -0.081 | 37.8% | 17.6% | 10.6% | 90.2% | 29.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.266 | 0.266 | 0.000 | 37.6% | 24.0% | 4.2% | 84.8% | 39.2% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.295 | 0.264 | -0.031 | 46.2% | 16.2% | 8.2% | 84.9% | 35.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.297 | 0.265 | -0.032 | 46.9% | 20.4% | 13.5% | 87.1% | 34.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.316 | 0.295 | -0.021 | 24.5% | 20.9% | 15.8% | 85.5% | 43.1% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.306 | 0.388 | 0.082 | 38.6% | 20.7% | 8.8% | 89.7% | 37.3% |
| Max Fried | Braves | 0.293 | 0.154 | -0.139 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 27.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.278 | 0.272 | -0.006 | 32.2% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 71.5% | 35.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.300 | 0.010 | 49.6% | 22.9% | 11.1% | 86.2% | 36.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.291 | 0.286 | -0.005 | 41.7% | 29.9% | 5.6% | 81.4% | 44.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.273 | 0.277 | 0.004 | 47.6% | 17.7% | 7.8% | 85.8% | 36.3% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.296 | 0.253 | -0.043 | 36.6% | 22.0% | 8.8% | 84.5% | 41.2% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.305 | 0.350 | 0.045 | 42.5% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 90.5% | 31.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.310 | 0.270 | -0.040 | 44.0% | 28.0% | 2.9% | 87.3% | 28.8% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.269 | 0.313 | 0.044 | 51.9% | 21.5% | 19.4% | 92.9% | 30.9% |
C.C. Sabathia probably has some regression in his BABIP, but the profile has been great and that 30.9 Z-O-Swing% is a major reason for the quality of contact he allows.
Charlie Morton is not that far away from the BABIP allowed by his team and the profile has been exceptional: lots of ground balls, few line drives, some popups and the second best Z-Contact rate on the board. He may only regress here as far as the defense does.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.357 | 0.070 | 0.356 | -0.001 | 0.357 | 0.070 | -1.900 | 90.2 | 6.8 | 45.800 | 118 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.322 | -0.042 | 0.335 | -0.002 | 0.326 | -0.040 | 0.200 | 86 | 6.5 | 25.200 | 123 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.352 | -0.006 | 0.318 | -0.013 | 0.365 | -0.002 | 0.800 | 84 | 7.6 | 28.500 | 144 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.408 | 0.025 | 0.365 | -0.046 | 0.408 | 0.025 | -1.000 | 93.8 | 13.9 | 52.800 | 36 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.438 | -0.049 | 0.412 | -0.024 | 0.440 | -0.013 | -0.500 | 91.1 | 14.3 | 46.900 | 98 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.273 | -0.003 | 0.305 | -0.006 | 0.226 | 0.012 | 0.600 | 84.6 | 5.3 | 27.200 | 114 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.243 | 0.010 | 0.282 | 0.005 | 0.243 | 0.021 | -0.900 | 85.8 | 2.7 | 25.500 | 110 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.450 | -0.045 | 0.323 | 0.016 | 0.450 | -0.045 | -0.300 | 90.3 | 7.1 | 47.600 | 42 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.364 | -0.040 | 0.369 | -0.019 | 0.399 | -0.039 | -0.900 | 91.1 | 11.8 | 46.100 | 102 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.358 | 0.016 | 0.329 | -0.012 | 0.358 | 0.016 | -2.700 | 90.8 | 13.1 | 31.100 | 61 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.377 | -0.026 | 0.343 | -0.032 | 0.367 | -0.019 | -0.300 | 88.6 | 9.7 | 37.900 | 145 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.410 | -0.047 | 0.383 | 0.009 | 0.391 | 0.022 | -0.300 | 88.1 | 9.9 | 44.400 | 171 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.394 | -0.053 | 0.349 | -0.048 | 0.407 | -0.064 | -1.200 | 91.2 | 8.8 | 46.600 | 148 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.239 | -0.002 | 0.251 | 0.021 | 0.217 | 0.002 | 1.000 | 84.5 | 2.9 | 23.300 | 103 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.275 | -0.023 | 0.326 | -0.001 | 0.277 | -0.031 | -0.900 | 86.3 | 3.3 | 30.300 | 122 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.350 | -0.051 | 0.364 | -0.034 | 0.378 | -0.031 | -1.000 | 89 | 12.8 | 33.100 | 148 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.369 | -0.061 | 0.331 | -0.004 | 0.376 | -0.096 | -0.300 | 88.8 | 9.3 | 39.500 | 129 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.301 | -0.019 | 0.349 | -0.007 | 0.279 | -0.039 | 0.400 | 85.6 | 6.0 | 27.600 | 134 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.323 | -0.053 | 0.371 | -0.002 | 0.304 | -0.042 | 0.600 | 88 | 6.1 | 42.600 | 115 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.374 | -0.010 | 0.329 | 0.009 | 0.398 | -0.007 | -1.800 | 88.8 | 12.9 | 38.100 | 139 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.400 | 0.011 | 0.377 | 0.026 | 0.408 | 0.011 | -1.000 | 90.7 | 7.7 | 46.900 | 130 |
| Max Fried | Braves | 0.335 | 0.056 | 0.374 | -0.025 | 0.335 | 0.056 | 0.000 | ||||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.260 | -0.028 | 0.239 | 0.008 | 0.255 | -0.013 | -0.800 | 87.8 | 8.5 | 39.800 | 118 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.349 | -0.023 | 0.303 | 0.007 | 0.342 | -0.035 | 0.000 | 87.3 | 8.1 | 35.300 | 136 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.366 | -0.075 | 0.317 | -0.020 | 0.342 | -0.086 | 0.500 | 88 | 8.5 | 38.000 | 129 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.313 | -0.049 | 0.270 | -0.032 | 0.321 | -0.086 | 0.300 | 86.3 | 7.3 | 29.300 | 150 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.367 | -0.071 | 0.361 | -0.075 | 0.377 | -0.074 | -1.800 | 89.4 | 7.3 | 39.000 | 82 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.267 | 0.031 | 0.303 | 0.015 | 0.263 | 0.045 | -0.800 | 85.8 | 3.7 | 26.800 | 82 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.313 | -0.044 | 0.328 | -0.008 | 0.321 | -0.068 | -1.300 | 87.5 | 6.3 | 40.500 | 126 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.350 | -0.028 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 0.365 | 0.005 | -1.100 | 89 | 7.7 | 40.200 | 117 |
Aside from Ross Stripling mostly working out of the pen this year, the major xwOBA surprise below .300 is C.C. Sabathia this year. Perhaps Jake Arrieta too considering the lack of swings and misses. He needs to generate everything weakly on the ground, which he’s nearly accomplishing.
Max Scherzer does not have the lowest xwOBA on the board, nor the second best either. That, in itself, speaks significantly to how good the other two guys have been this year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Just because there’s a lot of pitching doesn’t mean there’s a lot of good pitching, but the top guys are pretty great. Those three are far above everyone else, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other reasonable choices. They just carry more risk.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (2) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. When you’re xwOBA is better than “(player-popup #max-scherzer)Max Scherzer”:/players/max-scherzer-10934’s, it’s a massive accomplishment. When healthy, he goes deep into games, but if there’s concerns about workload tonight, they should be relieved by a cost that does not surpass $10K in perhaps the top spot on the board.
Value Tier Two
Max Scherzer (1) costs nearly $2K more than the second most expensive pitcher. I rarely even look to see who he’s facing until I get down here. Hmm…it’s the Dodgers. Okay. deGrom’s price is the only thing keeping him from the top spot tonight.
Value Tier Three
Michael Fulmer (5t) hasn’t consistently show results, so this is more of a speculative play than a results based one, but considering the 13.2 SwStr% over the last month and Seattle’s current state of health, I see some upside in this spot at a low price. I’d even bump him up a tier for just $6.1K on DraftKings.
Charlie Morton (3) has been exceptional. He’s earned the price tag. Perhaps he’s not been exceptional in every start and the matchup may not be ideal, but that’s why he’s not higher on the board.
Mike Clevinger (4) has cut his walk rate in half, is going deep into games and is slowly pushing the whiff rate up. Sure, you’re concerned about a $9K price tag in this matchup in Houston, but perhaps we should be less so?
Blake Snell (5t) is in a fairly low upside spot and has allowed five home runs over three starts with a hard hit rate above 35% in each of those starts, but the swinging strike rate has remained in double digits each time out this season and he hasn’t walked more than two in a start in over a month. His cost ($8K) is very reasonable considering the talent.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Godley (5t) hasn’t been a league average arm by strikeout rate, ERA and estimators, which makes him an adequately priced arm in a marginal spot, until you consider that the Mets are down Cespedes and Frazier, which may give him a slight boost here.
C.C. Sabathia doesn’t have great upside, but would seem to have a high floor in this matchup as an elite contact manager for several seasons now in a park that suppresses power.
Jake Arrieta is likely going to give you innings and weak ground balls in a favorable situation. That may be enough to pay off $8K, but realize if it goes bad early, he may not be able to make up ground with strikeouts. What he believes to be best for his actual team, may not be the best approach for your fantasy lineup.
Michael Wacha is fine for five or six innings, which is really not that attractive for a price tag around $8K until you build in the extra strikeout potential against the Phillies.
Kyle Freeland is probably not someone I’m paying $9.3K against, even in San Francisco, as you’re more likely to get ground balls than strikeouts in this particular matchup. You may get seven innings of quality run prevention though, which may be acceptable for $1.5K less on FanDuel.
Kyle Gibson is probably not an All-Star and perhaps a bit expensive at $8.8K on DraftKings, but he’s now a quality pitcher (I’ve written about frustration with his approach for years), which makes his $7.6K cost on FanDuel reasonable in a marginal spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.