Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 20th
Baseball is one of the few sports where you’re strictly predicting performance rather than opportunity and no matter what stats you look at, nobody can predict what’s going on in the human body or mind on any one of the nearly 200 days of a baseball season. You’re inevitably going to have bad days, bad weeks, the worst day of the season, and even your worst day ever writing an article like this. Many times, you’ll get more than half of them wrong, which is why the bottom section is so arbitrary and the least important part of this article. The numbers are what they are, you just try to interpret them in a meaningful way, hope everything falls in line and try to keep days like yesterday to a minimum. When they do happen, try to figure out how or even if your process was faulty and then move on without stewing over it. Now we’ll move on.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -0.2 | 3.23 | 6.2 | 1.72 | 1.02 | 2.88 | 1.83 | ATL | 70 | 74 | 99 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.4 | 3.9 | 6.21 | 2.95 | 1.03 | 3.96 | 5.04 | MIN | 82 | 87 | 80 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | -6.6 | 3.99 | 6.17 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 4.39 | 5.63 | TAM | 123 | 98 | 148 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -13.6 | 3.51 | 5.81 | 1.99 | 0.97 | 3.48 | 5.9 | ARI | 101 | 95 | 86 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -1.4 | 4.18 | 5.74 | 1.42 | 0.95 | 4.07 | OAK | 79 | 90 | 112 | |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 2.5 | 4.15 | 4.78 | 1.45 | 0.86 | 4.05 | 7.03 | LOS | 96 | 89 | 103 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3 | 3.89 | 6.24 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 4.04 | 5.48 | CLE | 86 | 106 | 142 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 13 | 4.39 | 6.19 | 0.75 | 1.01 | 4.62 | 3.21 | HOU | 106 | 102 | 118 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 10.2 | 2.86 | 6.94 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 2.84 | 4.65 | BOS | 134 | 128 | 129 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -5.7 | 4.61 | 5.32 | 0.92 | 1.02 | 5.13 | 4.76 | SEA | 116 | 108 | 115 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 6.8 | 4.29 | 5.82 | 1.39 | 0.99 | 4.36 | 4.04 | CHW | 93 | 96 | 88 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 2.8 | 5.11 | 5.09 | 1.81 | 0.95 | 4.93 | 3.69 | PIT | 122 | 114 | 114 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 1.3 | 3.26 | 6.31 | 1.48 | 0.95 | 3.3 | 3.07 | COL | 91 | 87 | 74 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 5.1 | 4.39 | 5.44 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 4.9 | 4.81 | BAL | 118 | 83 | 77 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -7.7 | 3.32 | 6.32 | 1.58 | 1.02 | 3.72 | 4.1 | CIN | 87 | 73 | 70 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 11.6 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 2.16 | 0.89 | 2.58 | 3.12 | SFO | 117 | 104 | 87 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | -0.6 | 4.14 | 5.98 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 4.54 | 4.64 | CHC | 118 | 109 | 90 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5 | 3.55 | 6.43 | 1.4 | 0.99 | 3.63 | 4.12 | KAN | 91 | 83 | 84 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 2 | 5.82 | 6.13 | 1.25 | 1 | 5.86 | 6.75 | WAS | 95 | 120 | 93 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.1 | 3.62 | 5.66 | 1.5 | 1.01 | 3.19 | 4.82 | TEX | 84 | 93 | 71 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.7 | 4.12 | 5.11 | 1.33 | 1.01 | 4.69 | 4.58 | DET | 103 | 111 | 144 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | -6.1 | 4.86 | 5.93 | 0.77 | 1.02 | 4.73 | 4.84 | PHI | 70 | 76 | 98 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | -2 | 4.88 | 5.13 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 5.74 | 4.77 | ANA | 98 | 102 | 133 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -6.8 | 3.77 | 5.63 | 1.61 | 0.97 | 3.67 | 4.12 | STL | 112 | 91 | 84 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.8 | 3.91 | 5.91 | 1.1 | 0.86 | 4.21 | 4 | SDG | 65 | 91 | 46 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -14.1 | 3.78 | 6.53 | 1.89 | 0.95 | 3.94 | 5.13 | NYY | 69 | 91 | 83 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -3.5 | 3.37 | 5.84 | 1.81 | 0.87 | 3.86 | 3.14 | MIL | 83 | 87 | 87 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.9 | 4.06 | 6.14 | 1.35 | 1 | 4.12 | 3.71 | FLA | 91 | 101 | 93 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -2.6 | 3.73 | 5.86 | 1.52 | 1.03 | 3.67 | 3.07 | TOR | 92 | 93 | 95 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -9.4 | 4.34 | 5.68 | 1.86 | 0.87 | 4.98 | 5.07 | NYM | 89 | 105 | 72 |
Aaron Nola has gone exactly seven innings in six of eight starts with at least seven strikeouts as many times with no less than five in any start, no HRs and just one walk in each of his last five with one or no runs four times. That’s remarkable consistency. Kershaw, Syndergaard, Scherzer. Those are the only three pitchers with a higher K-BB% than Nola’s 24.1 and just Syndergaard beats his 56.0 GB% (by 0.6). He was the seventh pick overall two years ago and he is becoming an Ace and a pitcher who is helping to shorten the Phillies’ journey back to relevance (as much as it hurts a Mets fan to say). The Braves, while not the worst offense vs RHP, nor even the worst park adjusted matchup on the board tonight still represent a great spot. Nola one drawback is that he’s allowed a HR in seven of his nine career home starts (two of three this year), but the Braves have just a 4.2 HR/FB and 23.8 Hard% vs RHP.
Corey Kluber is giving up some runs this season, but it’s not the usual culprit (BABIP) for him. His velocity was way down in April, but up a bit in May. The K% is down, but still strong and the SwStr% is the second highest mark of his career, behind only last year. Batted balls? Lower line drive rate, more ground balls, just one popup, but just four HRs and no real change in hard and soft contact. The biggest difference is in his strand rate and that’s a good thing. He’s gone at least six innings with six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. The Red Sox are just devastating opponents right now and are by far the worst matchup one could ask for tonight.
Gerrit Cole has walked a few more batters (7.1%) with a few less ground balls (42.9%) and a bit more hard contact than normal (15.4 Hard-Soft%). His 23.1 K% remains in line with his career rate, though his 8.7 SwStr% is full point below his league average career rate. We’ll have to look at that below. The overall numbers aren’t really concerning though and the Rockies are a favorable matchup in a favorable run environment. On the road over the last week, the Rockies have a 6.7 HR/FB.
Hisashi Iwakuma is a bit of a head scratcher. He seems to pitch to the level of his opponent in terms of strikeout rate, struggling to no more than three Ks in four starts against Oakland, LAA, and NYY, but generating seven or eight in three against Houston and Texas. While the overall K and BB rates are a bit worse this year, his HR rate (9.3 HR/FB) is below league double digits for the first time as he allows more fly balls (1.22 GB/FB). He’s on the road in a tough park for a previously HR pitcher, but the Reds have a 23.3 K% with a low walk rate (6.0%) vs RHP. In fact, only San Diego has a worse wRC+ vs RHP.
Jake Arrieta is being gushed over with a 1.29 ERA even lower than his 1.77 ERA last year. Let’s step back for a second and take a look under the hood, where we find some strong, but not elite level numbers. His K and SwStr rates are both slightly down, while the walk rate is up significantly to league average (8.6%). He’s walked exactly four batters in three of his last five starts. With a batted ball and contact profile nearly identical to last season, I would suspect this is one reason his ERA estimators are nearly a half a run higher than last year. San Francisco is a tough lineup to navigate (5.6 K-BB% at home, 4.7 K-BB% vs RHP). It’s like the 2015 Royals with walks, but they play in a really tough park that negates much of their power and really favors pitching.
Lance McCullers was promptly torched by the Red Sox in his 2016 debut, but got his 89 pitches in at normal velocity and we expect much better today against a below average Texas offense. He should be able to throw close to 100 pitches at this point and we’ll look at last season’s numbers to inform us and remember that he had some minor league control issues return late in the year after seemingly abandoning them after being promoted to the big club. The strikeout rate was high enough to make him an above average pitcher though with everything in his batted ball and contact profiles looking league average (like almost exactly league average…..everything). He was excellent at home with a 20.0 K-BB%. The Rangers don’t strike out a lot and there’s really nothing in their profile that would suggest they’d perform as poorly as they have, but their 7.1 Hard-Soft% against RHP is a bit low if we’re really looking for something and they’ve walked just 5.8% on the road for some reason.
Patrick Corbin has failed to strike out more than five in any of his last five starts and, like most Arizona pitchers, has disappointed. It’s a tough park, but maybe they want to reconsider Welington Castillo behind the plate or think about a pitching coach change? His nine HRs already ties last season’s mark in 35 fewer innings. He has a 25.0 Hard-Soft%, so why is he even being considered tonight? One reason is that the Cardinals are sneaky bad against LHP and were last year too. The underlying numbers don’t show anything exaggerated, but they didn’t last year either and don’t show any reason they should be good either. Many of their RHBs hit RHP better. Another reason is a significant upgrade in run environment tonight in St Louis.
Scott Kazmir has now allowed 10 HRs this season and while the overall results haven’t improved much, his K% and SwStr% have moved above average of the last month. The 19.1 HR/FB is now really the only thing that’s out of line and an issue he’s never really had before. In fact, his 22.1 Hard% is a career low. The Padres lean RH, which could present a few issues, but they’ve been terrible at home (17.9 K-BB%), retain a 25.9 K% vs LHP despite a 13.8 HR/FB (17.4 Hard-Soft%), and have been ice cold over the last week (19.7 K-BB%).
Steven Matz missed a turn with concern about his elbow and normally I’d separate myself for at least a start after that, but his medical workup came back completely clean and he’s in a great spot at home against an offense that strikes out a lot with a couple of their top RH power threats banged up. Matz has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in five straight starts.
Tyler Duffey had strong numbers last season and has continued to miss bats at a more than acceptable rate while lowering his walk rate (5.0%) this year. While a 1.53 ERA may be over-stating things a bit, this guy appears to be a quality pitcher where I can’t find a major fault despite lack of prospect hype. Perhaps it’s the 90 mph fastball, but like Drew Pomeranz, he throws a knuckle-curve over 40% of the time this year with great results. It might be time to see Toronto for what they really are, especially on the road. They’ve struck out at an above average rate with above average, but not mind-blowing power against RHP this year. It’s a neutral matchup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Dillon Gee (.274 BABIP – 88.8 LOB% – 16.0 HR/FB) has started just one game in which he would have been okay as a punt pitcher and think he could be again in a decent matchup for $4.2K. I wouldn’t touch him on FanDuel as my only pitcher for $2.2K more.
Jose Quintana (.280 BABIP – 83.0 LOB% – 1.9 HR/FB) has shown a potential ability to slightly suppress HRs, but he’s allowed just one about a quarter of the way into the season. That and his high strand rate have contributed most to an ERA two runs below his SIERA/xFIP. At just that, he might not be completely off the board even at $10K, but his SwStr% has tanked over the last month. His K% doesn’t look any different because he has a double digit strikeout performance four starts back, but has struck out just five in each of the three outings since. If we can’t depend on some strikeout upside, we can’t really use him at current cost against a team like the Royals.
Colby Lewis (.265 BABIP – 91.7 LOB% – 14.7 HR/FB) has a 20.8 K-BB% with a 9.0 SwStr% over his last three starts (he struck out none in the preceding start). I’ll give him some credit and have pulled him just about even with Martinez below today, but I’m going down with the ship on this one. $9.2K on DraftKings? He’s allowed a HR in seven of eight starts. You know it’s coming. Look at all the red batted ball numbers today.
Carlos Martinez (.217 BABIP – 80.0 LOB% – 12.5 HR/FB) has seen a large drop in his K% and SwStr% while still walking a league average rate of batters. I wouldn’t quibble with his LOB% as much if he still had a well above average K%, but this has not been the same pitcher this year. It’s been all BABIP fueled. Though strangely, as his velocity seems to increase with each start, his SwStr has declined and is below 4% in each of his last two starts.
Hector Santiago (.250 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 10.9 HR/FB) has transformed back into the hard contact (14.3 Hard-Soft%) fly ball machine (0.95 GB/FB) we all know and feel apathetic about? The velocity had declined steeply in his previous three starts before jumping back up in his last start, so who knows about that and his walks are at least league average this year, but he seems the type of pitcher who could be punished by Baltimore even in his home park, which plays as a negative run environment. They have struggled against LHP, but their underlying numbers (K%, BB%, HR/FB, Hard-Soft%) seem about average.
Matt Wisler (.224 BABIP – 75.0 LOB% – 7.2 HR/FB) has pitched at least into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts, but has just a 16.5 K% and has allowed a lot of hard contact (36.5 Hard%) that seems to find a path right to his defense. While $6.2K on FanDuel isn’t terrible in a favorable spot, $8.1K on DraftKings is way too much.
Dan Straily (.227 BABIP – 84.8 LOB% – 10.9 LOB%) has missed bats at a decent rate and may even have some improvement in his K%, but not until he gets his walk rate down from 11.5%, which would also allow him to more consistently finish six innings and make him more useful for our purposes. Seattle is the type of offense that could punish him for free passes.
Justin Nicolino (.235 BABIP – 68.6 LOB% – 3.6 HR/FB) caps off a record number of pitchers in this section today. His -6.9 K-BB% matches “(player-popup)Aaron Blair”:/players/aaron-blair-35016’s as one of the worst numbers I’ve ever seen. In four starts, his season high is two strikeouts, done just once in his first start. He’s doubled that total overall over his last three starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Aaron Sanchez continues to generate weak ground balls at an elite rate (59.2 GB%, 3.4 Hard-Soft%) and while we thought his K% would drop as he focused on ground balls (and it has), it remained high enough to be useful, as long as his control problems were behind him. Turns out they weren’t as he’s walked nine of his last 57 batters and though he’s still pitched into the seventh inning in each of last four starts, it gets a bit murky for $8K or more when your K and BB rates don’t have much more than 10 points of separation.
Tanner Roark has a -10.6 Hard-Soft%. That’s AMAZING, but 1/3 of his strikeouts came in one start, throwing a lot of things off. His $7K cost on DraftKings might be a wash, but he’s not really an $8.3K pitcher as represented on FanDuel. He has a 9.5 BB% and his 5.9 HR/FB seems a bit unsustainable.
Sonny Gray is down to $6.8K on DraftKings in a strong spot, but has been terrible. He’s allowed at least four runs (not all earned) in each of his last four starts with four or fewer strikeouts three times. He’s retained a 54.3 GB%, but his hard contact rate and subsequently his HR/FB are both up about 10 points.
Matt Andriese has two starts, 16 innings with a 14.8 K% and now costs in the neighborhood of $8K against the Tigers?
Eddie Butler has increased his K% and SwStr% through three starts, but hasn’t been able to hold onto his ground balls with a 42.1 Hard%. It’s still early, so we’ll watch with some interest how it shakes out, but his low walk rate (3.9%) could help him against the Pirates (9.1 BB% vs RHP).
C.C. Sabathia last pitched in an organized baseball game of any kind over two weeks ago.
Christian Friedrich walked six of 27 batters (striking out four) in his only major league outing this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.2% | 5.4% | Home | 26.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.6% | 10.3% | Road | 20.0% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.1% | Home | 20.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.5% | Home | 22.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 15.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.4% | Road | 17.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 18.7% | 10.1% | Home | 14.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 22.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.9% | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.8% | 5.6% | Road | 17.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 2.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.8% | 5.3% | Road | 28.8% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 13.0% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.6% | 11.5% | Home | 18.4% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 16.4% | 7.7% | Road | 9.8% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 12.1% | 9.9% | Road | 13.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.6% | 5.9% | Home | 23.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 3.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.9% | Home | 22.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.2% | 4.1% | Road | 19.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.3% | 6.1% | Road | 26.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 10.7% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.1% | Home | 14.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 14.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.5% | Home | 20.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 5.6% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 6.7% | 7.7% | Home | 4.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 4.1% | 12.2% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 24.5% | 8.5% | Home | 26.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 17.0% | 6.3% | Road | 14.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.6% | Road | 16.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 3.2% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 14.9% | 8.1% | Road | 15.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.4% | 5.3% | Road | 19.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 3.7% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.2% | Road | 19.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.8% | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 23.6% | 6.2% | Home | 19.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.8% | 5.7% | Road | 15.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.3% | Home | 25.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 8.2% | Road | 12.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 21.1% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.4% |
| Twins | Home | 18.8% | 7.6% | RH | 23.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.7% |
| Rays | Road | 24.8% | 8.1% | RH | 25.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.1% | 7.4% | RH | 21.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.1% | 6.7% | LH | 18.0% | 4.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 9.1% | LH | 19.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Road | 23.7% | 6.8% | RH | 22.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.7% |
| Astros | Home | 25.5% | 12.1% | RH | 25.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.0% | 7.6% | RH | 20.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 19.8% | 10.9% | RH | 19.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.2% | 9.6% | RH | 18.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.4% | 6.5% | RH | 18.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 7.0% | LH | 20.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.6% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 6.3% | RH | 23.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Home | 16.7% | 11.1% | RH | 15.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.7% | 11.9% | RH | 20.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Road | 19.6% | 5.9% | LH | 18.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 8.9% | LH | 21.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.8% | 5.8% | RH | 18.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 23.0% | 8.3% | RH | 23.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.2% | 8.5% | RH | 21.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.0% |
| Angels | Home | 16.7% | 8.6% | RH | 16.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.3% | 8.3% | LH | 20.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Padres | Home | 24.3% | 6.4% | LH | 25.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 4.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.9% | 7.4% | RH | 18.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.8% | 11.4% | LH | 22.3% | 13.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 13.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.3% | 7.7% | RH | 19.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.0% | 9.4% | RH | 23.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Home | 23.2% | 9.7% | RH | 22.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 6.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.8% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2016 | 20.6% | 9.1% | -2.9% | Home | 23.3% | 20.5% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -8.4% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.0% | 2016 | 26.4% | 13.8% | 3.4% | Road | 20.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 14.3% | 8.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2016 | 29.7% | 15.1% | 10.2% | Home | 27.7% | 14.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 2016 | 32.8% | 12.5% | 17.6% | Home | 27.4% | 12.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 7.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 2016 | 24.4% | 3.4% | -2.3% | Road | 28.4% | 14.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 2016 | 17.7% | 0.0% | -11.7% | Home | 28.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -11.7% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 13.6% | 14.4% | Home | 26.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 17.6% | 28.9% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.2% | 10.0% | 21.6% | 2016 | 36.9% | 14.7% | 24.2% | Road | 35.7% | 9.0% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 15.4% | 21.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 2016 | 29.7% | 8.5% | 11.1% | Road | 28.5% | 12.2% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 11.1% | 13.8% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 26.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 2016 | 27.0% | 10.9% | 7.9% | Home | 26.3% | 8.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | -14.7% |
| Dillon Gee | Royals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 2016 | 32.5% | 16.0% | 14.3% | Road | 25.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.0% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 2016 | 42.1% | 17.6% | 29.8% | Road | 27.4% | 17.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 11.1% | 41.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.5% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 2016 | 31.6% | 4.9% | 15.4% | Home | 32.4% | 8.8% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 32.2% | 9.4% | 16.3% | 2016 | 32.0% | 10.9% | 14.3% | Home | 33.3% | 9.5% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.1% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 2016 | 26.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | Road | 25.2% | 12.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.5% | -0.2% | 2016 | 22.2% | 6.3% | -3.0% | Road | 23.2% | 8.0% | 0.8% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 2016 | 36.8% | 12.5% | 22.8% | Home | 27.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 10.0% | 29.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 5.9% | 11.9% | 2016 | 31.9% | 1.9% | 13.8% | Home | 27.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 2016 | 30.2% | 3.6% | 9.3% | Home | 34.7% | 7.7% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 2016 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% | Home | 30.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 2016 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Road | 35.1% | 3.8% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 2016 | 36.5% | 7.2% | 15.5% | Road | 29.8% | 13.5% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 4.0% | 19.6% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.4% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 2016 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 3.6% | Road | 36.7% | 14.0% | 26.5% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.7% | -10.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.5% | 18.9% | 2016 | 40.2% | 18.4% | 25.0% | Road | 33.3% | 12.7% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 7.7% | 31.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.8% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 2016 | 22.1% | 19.2% | 1.4% | Road | 27.4% | 18.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.6% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 2016 | 34.5% | 19.0% | 19.0% | Home | 25.1% | 11.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 47.4% | 21.4% | 34.2% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 22.3% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 2016 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 4.1% | Home | 25.3% | 12.0% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 25.0% | 21.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 2016 | 22.0% | 5.9% | -10.6% | Road | 26.6% | 13.4% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 14.3% | -2.9% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 26.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 2016 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | Home | 26.9% | 3.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 2016 | 36.9% | 15.9% | 24.8% | Road | 32.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 18.2% | 26.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 22.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | RH | 23.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.0% |
| Twins | Home | 31.5% | 8.0% | 13.8% | RH | 31.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 16.1% | 11.1% |
| Rays | Road | 36.1% | 18.6% | 18.2% | RH | 35.1% | 15.9% | 14.6% | L7Days | 35.9% | 20.0% | 15.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.2% | 11.9% | 11.4% | RH | 33.0% | 12.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 38.6% | 9.5% | 22.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | LH | 28.0% | 14.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 32.3% | 19.2% | 12.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.4% | 8.1% | 17.5% | LH | 29.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| Indians | Road | 30.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | RH | 30.6% | 12.2% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.0% | 13.6% | 20.3% |
| Astros | Home | 34.5% | 13.2% | 18.5% | RH | 34.0% | 15.6% | 16.7% | L7Days | 32.0% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.9% | 13.1% | 16.0% | RH | 34.0% | 12.9% | 15.8% | L7Days | 39.4% | 13.5% | 21.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.5% | 16.7% | 12.4% | RH | 29.2% | 13.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 30.7% | 14.0% | 12.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | RH | 27.6% | 10.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 26.7% | 10.6% | 6.1% | RH | 27.1% | 10.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.4% | 3.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 31.3% | 14.8% | 12.3% | RH | 31.2% | 11.1% | 13.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 6.7% | 14.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.7% | 16.8% | 14.3% | LH | 32.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 35.4% | 13.3% | 12.9% |
| Reds | Home | 31.0% | 17.2% | 15.4% | RH | 32.0% | 12.2% | 14.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Home | 27.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | RH | 31.3% | 10.7% | 12.8% | L7Days | 34.8% | 9.4% | 17.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.5% | 13.4% | 15.3% | RH | 31.8% | 11.1% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.2% | 12.3% | 13.1% |
| Royals | Road | 27.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% | LH | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.4% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 33.6% | 13.5% | 16.8% | LH | 33.5% | 14.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 29.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | RH | 27.2% | 11.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 35.7% | 12.0% | 19.5% | RH | 33.7% | 13.3% | 16.3% | L7Days | 37.6% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.3% | 7.4% | -1.4% | RH | 24.8% | 9.0% | 4.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Angels | Home | 30.2% | 13.2% | 11.0% | RH | 29.5% | 10.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.9% | 13.3% | 16.2% | LH | 30.5% | 10.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 28.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% |
| Padres | Home | 28.0% | 8.4% | 11.5% | LH | 31.9% | 13.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 40.5% | 11.3% | 22.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 26.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | RH | 24.7% | 14.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 10.5% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.7% | 13.4% | 6.9% | LH | 33.1% | 11.9% | 15.7% | L7Days | 38.0% | 11.5% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 28.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | RH | 27.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | L7Days | 32.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 30.3% | 12.3% | 10.6% | RH | 33.3% | 13.1% | 16.3% | L7Days | 38.0% | 14.5% | 22.1% |
| Mets | Home | 31.4% | 11.7% | 7.4% | RH | 34.4% | 15.2% | 17.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 12.8% | 7.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 28.6% | 10.1% | 2.83 | 27.6% | 10.1% | 2.73 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 20.9% | 8.3% | 2.52 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 2.20 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.2% | 8.4% | 2.40 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 2.73 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 18.5% | 8.1% | 2.28 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 2.40 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 16.8% | 8.4% | 2.00 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 2.04 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.14 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.14 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 16.1% | 9.0% | 1.79 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 1.76 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 2.21 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 24.5% | 12.6% | 1.94 | 25.6% | 10.8% | 2.37 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 20.7% | 11.0% | 1.88 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 1.82 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 19.1% | 10.9% | 1.75 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 1.90 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.51 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.51 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.66 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.78 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 19.1% | 9.9% | 1.93 | 15.5% | 8.7% | 1.78 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 17.9% | 8.9% | 2.01 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 1.81 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.3% | 10.4% | 2.53 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.69 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.60 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 1.80 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.3% | 8.2% | 2.84 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 3.38 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.29 | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.29 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.72 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.72 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.83 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.83 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 16.5% | 7.4% | 2.23 | 15.7% | 7.1% | 2.21 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.57 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 2.67 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 15.2% | 8.4% | 1.81 | 13.7% | 8.4% | 1.63 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 21.5% | 10.0% | 2.15 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.04 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 24.5% | 8.1% | 3.02 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 3.40 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 21.9% | 7.8% | 2.81 | 28.0% | 8.2% | 3.41 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.03 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 2.53 |
Aaron Nola – You can see his K% has dropped over the last month despite the same SwStr%. It’s not too out of line, but might drop even a bit further, but not an alarming amount. Interesting to note that Carlos Ruiz is one of the worst framers in baseball (-2.3 RAA this season and a major league worst -15.6 RAA in 2015).
Gerrit Cole has the lowest SwStr% of his career and it’s been up and down from start to start with just three of seven league average or better. He hit double digits for the first time last year, but is generally around league average for his career and pitches to catchers who are considered quality framers. I’m not too concerned as long as he stays around career rates, but would like to see a few more swings and misses.
Patrick Corbin has a below average SwStr% and worse than he’s shown in the past, but he’s not the only Arizona pitcher that presents with a low K/SwStr. Is Welington Castillo actually trash talking umpires or what’s going on here? Arizona needs to ship to the AL to be a DH while he still has some offensive value.
Steven Matz had a strikeout rate a bit above average in limited work with a similar SwStr% last year. I think he eventually settles in around league average, but retains some value as a strike thrower with a strong ground ball rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.89 | 2.57 | -0.32 | 2.39 | -0.5 | 2.14 | -0.75 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 0.96 | 2.26 | 0.94 | 1.56 | 0.24 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.29 | 3.8 | 0.51 | 3.51 | 0.22 | 3.63 | 0.34 | 4.5 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.77 | -0.73 | 3.74 | -0.76 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.91 | 4.82 | -1.09 | 5.05 | -0.86 | 5.53 | -0.38 | 6.67 | 5.01 | -1.66 | 5.31 | -1.36 | 5.61 | -1.06 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.14 | 4.23 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 1.05 | 4.23 | 1.09 | 3 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.42 | 1.42 | 4.62 | 1.62 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.81 | 4.81 | 1 | 4.71 | 0.9 | 3.55 | -0.26 | 3.06 | 4.88 | 1.82 | 4.75 | 1.69 | 3.14 | 0.08 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 1.5 | 7.03 | 5.53 | 6.33 | 4.83 | 4.75 | 3.25 | 1.5 | 7.03 | 5.53 | 6.33 | 4.83 | 4.75 | 3.25 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 6.11 | 5.04 | -1.07 | 5.17 | -0.94 | 5.41 | -0.7 | 6.3 | 4.94 | -1.36 | 5.09 | -1.21 | 5.15 | -1.15 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.12 | 4.29 | 1.17 | 4.44 | 1.32 | 4.88 | 1.76 | 2.65 | 4.42 | 1.77 | 4.47 | 1.82 | 4.38 | 1.73 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.3 | 3.37 | -0.93 | 3.38 | -0.92 | 2.95 | -1.35 | 3.24 | 3.22 | -0.02 | 3.2 | -0.04 | 2.7 | -0.54 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.05 | 4.57 | 1.52 | 4.77 | 1.72 | 4.59 | 1.54 | 3.21 | 4.75 | 1.54 | 4.9 | 1.69 | 4.84 | 1.63 |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 3.12 | 4.25 | 1.13 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 4.86 | 1.74 | 3.43 | 3.75 | 0.32 | 3.87 | 0.44 | 4.37 | 0.94 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 4.74 | 3.48 | -1.26 | 3.45 | -1.29 | 4.09 | -0.65 | 4.74 | 3.49 | -1.25 | 3.45 | -1.29 | 4.09 | -0.65 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.05 | 3.75 | 0.7 | 3.71 | 0.66 | 2.77 | -0.28 | 2.64 | 3.62 | 0.98 | 3.71 | 1.07 | 2.86 | 0.22 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.42 | 4.37 | 0.95 | 4.63 | 1.21 | 4.43 | 1.01 | 3.99 | 4.91 | 0.92 | 5.17 | 1.18 | 4.79 | 0.8 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.38 | 4.28 | -0.1 | 4.31 | -0.07 | 3.9 | -0.48 | 4.31 | 4.26 | -0.05 | 4.15 | -0.16 | 4.14 | -0.17 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.29 | 3.27 | 1.98 | 3.04 | 1.75 | 2.61 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 3.74 | 2.42 | 3.41 | 2.09 | 2.53 | 1.21 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 7.43 | 4.36 | -3.07 | 4.7 | -2.73 | 4.76 | -2.67 | 6.58 | 4.53 | -2.05 | 4.83 | -1.75 | 5.2 | -1.38 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 1.54 | 3.56 | 2.02 | 3.49 | 1.95 | 2.18 | 0.64 | 1.03 | 3.8 | 2.77 | 3.88 | 2.85 | 2.49 | 1.46 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 3.75 | 6.55 | 2.8 | 5.97 | 2.22 | 4.67 | 0.92 | 3.75 | 6.55 | 2.8 | 5.97 | 2.22 | 4.67 | 0.92 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 9.64 | 4.78 | -4.86 | 4.32 | -5.32 | 3.3 | -6.34 | 9.64 | 4.82 | -4.82 | 4.32 | -5.32 | 3.3 | -6.34 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.56 | 4.58 | 4.02 | 4.52 | 3.96 | 2.84 | 2.28 | 0.56 | 4.58 | 4.02 | 4.52 | 3.96 | 2.84 | 2.28 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 3.14 | 4.57 | 1.43 | 4.88 | 1.74 | 3.97 | 0.83 | 2.57 | 4.76 | 2.19 | 4.94 | 2.37 | 3.52 | 0.95 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.2 | 4.37 | -0.83 | 4.45 | -0.75 | 4.27 | -0.93 | 4.88 | 4.42 | -0.46 | 4.38 | -0.5 | 4.01 | -0.87 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.14 | 4.35 | 0.21 | 4.2 | 0.06 | 4.99 | 0.85 | 5.04 | 4.57 | -0.47 | 4.45 | -0.59 | 5.46 | 0.42 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.89 | 3.88 | -1.01 | 4.11 | -0.78 | 5.15 | 0.26 | 4.22 | 3.68 | -0.54 | 3.86 | -0.36 | 5.03 | 0.81 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 5.84 | 4.35 | -1.49 | 4.28 | -1.56 | 5.13 | -0.71 | 8.53 | 4.6 | -3.93 | 4.65 | -3.88 | 6.56 | -1.97 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 2.86 | 3.04 | 0.18 | 2.85 | -0.01 | 2.68 | -0.18 | 1.38 | 2.78 | 1.4 | 2.65 | 1.27 | 2.36 | 0.98 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.1 | 3.95 | 0.85 | 3.71 | 0.61 | 3.15 | 0.05 | 2.78 | 3.31 | 0.53 | 3.12 | 0.34 | 2.5 | -0.28 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 1.85 | 3.49 | 1.64 | 3.5 | 1.65 | 3.01 | 1.16 | 1.85 | 3.49 | 1.64 | 3.5 | 1.65 | 3.01 | 1.16 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 7.3 | 5.06 | -2.24 | 5.04 | -2.26 | 5.57 | -1.73 | 5.93 | 4.94 | -0.99 | 4.83 | -1.1 | 4.7 | -1.23 |
Corey Kluber – We went into this in detail above, but the only thing that looks really out of place right now is a 63.2 LOB% and that’s great news. His April velocity was down, but his May velocity is near where he was last summer according to Brooks Baseball.
Gerrit Cole has a 4.9 HR/FB that seems and probably is unsustainable. However, he has a career 7.5 HR/FB, showing some skill at suppressing the long ball. His home mark (9.1 HR/FB career) is a bit higher than his road mark (5.9 HR/FB), which is surprising. There’s a bit of concern in allowing harder contact in the air this year, but think we can look somewhere above his FIP, but below his SIERA/xFIP, in the low to mid-threes at this point.
Jake Arrieta – We already talked about the higher BB% and similar profile on batted balls, including contact rates (Hard & Soft). The .203 BABIP sends up the first red flag. There’s nothing that stands out in his indicators below except for an incredibly strong defense that always seems to be in the right place and helped him to a .246 mark last year. He’s been a pretty elite ground ball pitcher (56% each of the last two seasons) with a 22% hard contact rate each of the past two years, which might give him some BABIP suppression skills in front of this defense, but we still have to call for a nearly 50 point rise. The 86.3 LOB% is way too high, while the 6.3 HR/FB is low, but he’s been below 8.0 in each of his three seasons with the Cubs now. Let’s look at his FIP, which still leaves him as one of the best pitchers in the league about a run and a half more per nine innings.
Scott Kazmir has a HR problem this season, which has already been discussed. I expect significant regression in this area and him to return to being a league average pitcher.
Tyler Duffy has a 79.4 LOB% that is a bit high and his 8.3 HR/FB may be a bit low, but we don’t have nearly enough of a sample size to judge that yet.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.287 | 0.248 | -0.039 | 0.194 | 3.0% | 83.4% |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.283 | 0.271 | -0.012 | 0.211 | 3.4% | 83.2% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.310 | 0.300 | -0.01 | 0.176 | 22.6% | 88.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.281 | 0.217 | -0.064 | 0.148 | 5.0% | 88.4% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.309 | 0.337 | 0.028 | 0.193 | 13.8% | 88.1% |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 0.300 | 0.235 | -0.065 | 0.063 | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.299 | 0.285 | -0.014 | 0.21 | 15.3% | 86.1% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.290 | 0.265 | -0.025 | 0.192 | 10.3% | 88.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.272 | 0.298 | 0.026 | 0.169 | 2.1% | 85.3% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.292 | 0.227 | -0.065 | 0.2 | 10.9% | 84.8% |
| Dillon Gee | KAN | 0.292 | 0.274 | -0.018 | 0.219 | 12.0% | 84.4% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.316 | 0.296 | -0.02 | 0.246 | 5.9% | 88.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.298 | 0.296 | -0.002 | 0.205 | 4.9% | 90.7% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.288 | 0.250 | -0.038 | 0.138 | 15.6% | 82.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.272 | 0.329 | 0.057 | 0.226 | 16.7% | 89.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.251 | 0.203 | -0.048 | 0.194 | 6.3% | 87.2% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.314 | 0.372 | 0.058 | 0.158 | 12.5% | 83.4% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.276 | 0.280 | 0.004 | 0.243 | 9.6% | 86.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.304 | 0.235 | -0.069 | 0.169 | 7.1% | 92.9% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.314 | 0.467 | 0.153 | 0.267 | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.264 | 0.143 | -0.121 | 0.143 | 11.8% | 92.0% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.303 | 0.224 | -0.079 | 0.171 | 8.7% | 91.0% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.298 | 0.318 | 0.02 | 0.231 | 8.1% | 89.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.308 | 0.284 | -0.024 | 0.182 | 4.1% | 92.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0 | 0.203 | 11.5% | 83.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.301 | 0.306 | 0.005 | 0.157 | 11.9% | 92.6% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.318 | 0.323 | 0.005 | 0.217 | 10.0% | 88.8% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.281 | 0.288 | 0.007 | 0.224 | 5.9% | 88.5% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.321 | 0.286 | -0.035 | 0.222 | 16.7% | 89.3% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.305 | 0.392 | 0.087 | 0.194 | 6.8% | 94.6% |
Aaron Nola – The low BABIP hasn’t affected the ERA because of a low LOB% (66.2), but in addition to the elite K-BB%, he also has the 9th best GB% and second lowest Hard% in baseball. There’s probably some regression in his BABIP as he’s only generated one popup and you can’t be everywhere ground balls are, but his strand rate should rise also, countering any effect it might have on his overall results.
Hisashi Iwakuma has a career .276 BABIP with a much improved BABIP profile this year, so this is surprising. His 22.6 LD% is a career high, but not much above average and he’s on his way to a career high number of popups with nine already. His hard contact (26.8%) is actually a bit below his career rate. The defense has rated poorly overall, but have excelled in the BABIP department. This should turn around and may even help with his ERA if he retains a single digit HR/FB, but I’m a bit more skeptical about that.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (1t) has increased to $11K on DraftKings and at first that seemed frustrating until I saw he was facing the Braves and then also realized how great he’s been. Let’s recap. Among qualified starters, he’s fifth in K-BB%, ninth in GB%, and second in Hard%. He’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball and is the easiest call today.
Value Tier Two
Tyler Duffey (4t) appears to be a quality arm and the Blue Jays don’t appear to be a monstrous offense. These are two things I wouldn’t expect more casual fans and players to immediately pick up on, leaving him as a potentially sneaky pickup tonight. The cost on DraftKings ($7.9K) is about what I’d expect, but is probably likely to lower ownership even more. He looks nearly as attractive as Nola on FanDuel for $6.4K, where he might be a great GPP play.
Gerrit Cole (3) may not actually be pitching as well as his ERA, but it’s not far off. He looks like a bargain, where I have him rated a fairly close second best value to Nola for $2.3K less. There’s more separation where I have him more towards the middle of the pack (among only pitchers being considered) for $1.2K more than Nola and the second highest price tag in on FanDuel. He’s showed an ability to keep the ball in the park and the Rockies have been struggling in tougher parks this week.
Jake Arrieta (1t) may not be a true 1.29 ERA talent, but who is besides Kershaw? He’s still plenty damn good with the one concerning flaw being reduced control this year. The Giants are the best disciplined offense in the league, which is probably why his cost remains below $13K tonight and this is where a bit of concern about the walk rate comes in, but it’s a fantastic park to pitch in and he’s still a stud who generates a lot of weak contact on the ground in front of a great and well prepared defense.
Hisashi Iwakuma (7t) is in a strong spot against a team that has been awful vs RHP, though HR concerns remain given his history. The Reds could bolster his strikeout rate to league average tonight, which make him one of the stronger potential values on DK ($6.9), but more of a toss-up for $8K on FD. Cincinnati only really has three dangerous bats against RHP and one bats towards the bottom of the order.
Value Tier Three
Scott Kazmir (4t) probably has tonight’s top park adjusted matchup. The Padres aren’t terrible vs LHP, but still strike out over a quarter of the time and have been absolutely terrible in a difficult run environment at home besides being the worst offense in the majors over the last week. Kazmir gets the Tier Three treatment because his cost is $9.5K on DraftKings and even without a HR problem, I don’t consider him much better than a league average arm at this point.
Steven Matz (4t) appears to be healthy and may be in a great spot against a Milwaukee offense that should help keep his strikeout rate above average despite a lower SwStr rate and may be missing a couple of top RH power bats (check the lineup for Braun and Santana) in a very pitcher friendly run environment. The cost isn’t as attractive as you’d hope and a high rate of weak ground balls is only as attractive as a poor defense allows it to be, so there are some drawbacks here too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Corey Kluber (7t) has a hellacious matchup and is pitching at a reduced cost to account for that and maybe suboptimal results the last two times out. Overall, nothing really looks all that wrong. This could get ugly, but has high upside with potentially low ownership.
Lance McCullers may have done DFS players a favor by taking a bit of a beating in Boston. It may have kept his cost more reasonable, where his restrictions should be relaxed today. It seems like a solid matchup, but I can’t really find a reason Texas has such poor wRC+ numbers and there’s a little bit of a concern in the walk rate which leaves him a bit of a riskier high upside play tonight. I have no idea where most of the community is going to come down on him as far as ownership rates though. Either high or low wouldn’t surprise me.
Patrick Corbin is not a pitcher you want to build a lineup with and doesn’t even appear to have a lot of upside like the two above. He’s been a below average pitcher this year, but comes at a below average cost in a spot that might not be as bad as most people will assume. If you need a complementary pitcher in his price range, you could drop him in your lineup and might not get hurt too badly.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window