Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, April 8th
As was the case yesterday, all of today’s pitchers are listed, while only covering the night slate in the notes. It’s the second time around for some of these arms, which means we have 2017 stats. We’ll be mixing those in under the L14 Days, but everything else in the bottom portion that uses season and L30 Days numbers are still from last year are still 2016 numbers. Today is the only day we will mix like that because half of today’s pitchers still haven’t made a start yet this year. Next week, we’re into 2017 stats. Hopefully, we’ll have some updated park factors too.
Check out Tuesday’s article for an explanation on some newly included stats this year, including DRA and some Statcast stuff. Remember that FanDuel has changed their pitcher pricing to de-emphasize the Win in favor of the Quality Start. A welcome, if not overdue change.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 1.9 | 3.44 | 5.7 | 52.0% | 1.02 | 2.84 | WAS | 98 | 95 | 91 | |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 2.2 | 4.14 | 6.29 | 56.4% | 0.97 | 3.59 | TAM | 96 | 98 | 73 | |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | -5.8 | 7.02 | 33.3% | 0.99 | 8 | CHW | 97 | 102 | 108 | ||
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.8 | 4.42 | 5.33 | 39.0% | 0.87 | 5.13 | NYM | 102 | 104 | 115 | |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.8 | 4.5 | 5.01 | 44.3% | 0.95 | 5.87 | ATL | 86 | 89 | 105 | |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -1.4 | 3.29 | 6.18 | 46.9% | 0.97 | 3.26 | 3.4 | TOR | 97 | 103 | 80 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.3 | 2.29 | 7.08 | 49.6% | 1.37 | 2.41 | 1.95 | COL | 100 | 84 | 73 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.2 | 3.25 | 6.78 | 59.3% | 1.01 | 3.26 | 3.77 | KAN | 85 | 100 | 64 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.9 | 3.98 | 5.8 | 37.2% | 1.01 | 3.5 | 3.47 | HOU | 97 | 98 | 85 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.1 | 4.29 | 5.57 | 37.8% | 1.01 | 4.47 | DET | 110 | 102 | 140 | |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -4.3 | 3.93 | 6.3 | 53.4% | 0.92 | 4.5 | 1.66 | ANA | 101 | 99 | 104 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | WAS | 1.1 | 5.02 | 5.46 | 34.4% | 1.02 | PHI | 76 | 83 | 75 | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.9 | 4.4 | 5.26 | 47.8% | 0.86 | 3.91 | 5.57 | SFO | 83 | 100 | 155 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -3.1 | 3.72 | 5.44 | 43.2% | 1.37 | 3.07 | 2.32 | LOS | 89 | 109 | 65 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -5.1 | 4.16 | 5.96 | 42.4% | 1.01 | 5.29 | BOS | 105 | 113 | 58 | |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.3 | 4.49 | 5.8 | 51.0% | 1.07 | 4.7 | 2.82 | TEX | 106 | 98 | 85 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.2 | 3.79 | 5.94 | 44.3% | 1.04 | 3.99 | 5.41 | NYY | 84 | 93 | 107 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 9.1 | 3.54 | 5.94 | 49.9% | 1.05 | 4.17 | MIL | 92 | 87 | 103 | |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.8 | 3.13 | 6.74 | 40.4% | 0.86 | 3.44 | 0.92 | SDG | 92 | 98 | 97 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.8 | 3.63 | 6.4 | 47.4% | 1.04 | 3.79 | 4.64 | BAL | 104 | 107 | 95 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -5.3 | 4.15 | 5.8 | 46.2% | 0.97 | 3.82 | CIN | 85 | 91 | 111 | |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.3 | 4.56 | 5.68 | 40.2% | 0.99 | 4.62 | MIN | 99 | 95 | 92 | |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 2.2 | 4.78 | 6.18 | 42.0% | 0.97 | 4.58 | TAM | 96 | 98 | 73 | |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 6.5 | 4.35 | 5.81 | 42.3% | 0.92 | 4.36 | 4.74 | SEA | 101 | 107 | 124 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.3 | 3.72 | 5.86 | 0.537 | 0.87 | 3.04 | 2.1 | FLA | 96 | 91 | 88 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | -7.2 | 4.45 | 5.34 | 0.431 | 1.05 | 3.96 | 2.22 | CHC | 106 | 116 | 113 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.4 | 4.24 | 6. | 0.443 | 1.07 | 4 | ARI | 99 | 87 | 106 | |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 1.9 | 3.22 | 5.9 | 0.407 | 1.07 | 3.58 | 5.89 | OAK | 98 | 91 | 84 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -6.1 | 3.65 | 6.54 | 0.47 | 1.07 | 4.57 | 4.25 | CLE | 85 | 103 | 94 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.97 | STL | 102 | 106 | 129 |
Aaron Nola had an excellent start to his major league career and then something happened. Either he stopped locating or they stopped chasing or both, but they hit the crap out of him from June on. Over his last nine starts, opposing hitters had a .454 BABIP with a 36.1 Hard%. He still had a 56 GB% and 14.6 K-BB%. Word on the street (or the internet) is that he’s developed a changeup this spring, so perhaps that will help some, but what should we expect? Ground balls and strikeouts are two things whether going good or bad. We obviously expect some BABIP improvement. He doesn’t throw very hard, which could be a factor in mistakes being hit hard, but his Exit Velocity and Barrels are among the best on the board today. It’s perplexing, but the peripherals are with him, which bodes well more times than not. The Nationals weren’t a very good offense against RHP last year. They should be better this season.
Adam Conley failed to go even six innings in 13 of his 24 starts last season (not counting his first one which ended after one inning due to rain). This was due to his 10.6 BB%. Only six times did he go more than six innings. We shouldn’t expect more than six innings here, but he should be able to accumulate a few strikeouts. It should be a little warmer in NY tonight than it was last night, but still not ideal hitting conditions.
Clayton Kershaw is pitching in Colorado. We’ve seen that some pitchers can be successful there and this is an offense that greatly struggled against LHP last year (22.9 K%).
Dallas Keuchel came and executed a definite plan in his first game, throwing a career high 80% of his pitches low. Though he still had a superior ground ball rate in 2016, it wasn’t as good as the year before and he found too many barrels last season. That may have been the result of his shoulder injury and perhaps a healthier Keuchel will be a better one and it started really well with 11 of 16 batted balls on the ground and only three balls hit hard. Even if he only struck out four. He has a plus matchup tonight against the Royals.
Kendall Graveman seems to get early season hype every season, but I rarely find him to be a useful pitcher for DFS purposes because he fails to miss many bats. This year, the gossip is about a velocity spike (for the second year in a row) and Jeff Sullivan (Fangraphs) gave us two articles in his favor. He did strike out seven of 24 Angels after all with an 11.5 SwStr%, but split his batted balls evenly with five GBs, LDs and FBs each, 40% of that contact being of the hard variety. A third article (not by Sullivan) suggested that the sacrifice of that increased velocity and swinging strikes, might be his ground ball rate. This would actually be a fine tradeoff for our purposes as strikeouts are more important than anything in DFS. It’s a more difficult environment in Texas tonight.
Kyle Hendricks probably won’t be as good as last year because basically everything has to go right to generate an ERA around two with a good, but not great strikeout rate. He does excel at contact management (0.7 Hard-Soft%, 87.2 mph aEV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE) and has a great defense behind him though, so don’t expect it all to go away. There’s still a good chance he beats his estimators significantly and he faces a predominantly right-handed lineup, at least among it’s better components, which struck out a quarter of the time against RHP last year.
Madison Bumgarner hit two HRs and struck out 11 of 27 batters, not even allowing a hit until the sixth inning. Now he gets to face the Padres, who struck out 25.3% of the time against LHP last year. Oh, and his velocity was also up, even taking into account the measuring differences this year.
Robert Gsellman is taking Thor’s spot today due to a blister. It’s a big Asgardian helmet to fill and you wouldn’t expect this Mets fan to actually be excited about this because I did not want to miss writing about him on a Sunday. This is a pitcher who struck out batters at a below average clip throughout the minors, but suddenly spiked in the majors to 22.7% with an ERA around two and a half, supported by his FIP, though other estimators were significantly higher with a 3.6 HR/FB that is bound to regress heavily. Don’t automatically expect those strikeouts to go away though. The stuff has exceeded expectations with an uptick in velocity and the addition of the Warthan slider to his arsenal upon reaching the majors. There are reasons to believe he now has the ability to sustain many of the unexpected gains he made upon arriving in the majors. A strikeout rate above average with a ground ball rate above 50% are things Cy Young contenders have been made of in recent seasons. While there’s concern about a third pitch, he’s developing his curveball this spring. This doesn’t necessarily immediately make it a plus pitch, but It could enhance his other weapons. He’s in a nice spot at home here where the biggest concern might be his infield defense if he’s generating so many ground balls.
Yu Darvish generated just a 5.1 SwStr% on his way to walking five Clevelanders, while striking out only four. His velocity looked fine, but everything else seemed a mess. You could blame that on facing the reigning AL champs on Opening Day or it could be something else, but I’m not ready to punish a guy who was so dominant last year after just one bad (but terrible) start. Pitching in Texas is never easy and the A’s don’t strike out a lot, but the matchup is an upgrade tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Felix Hernandez (.271 – 73.5% – 14.5) did allow two HRs in his first start and did not generate many ground balls, but otherwise looked good against Houston, striking out six of 19 batters and allowing only those two runs before leaving with a groin injury. He already has enough of a risk factor with an ERA that would have been over four if not for 11 unearned runs last year and now he faced the Angels, an offense against which he may have less strikeout upside for a cost above $9K.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Danny Duffy struck out eight of the 24 Twins he faced first time out, walking a few as well. It was argued here that he may have tired in throwing a career high number of innings last year, resulting in a fading down the stretch, making him a solid play at a reasonable price and he came through. Today, he appears slightly more expensive in a tougher spot, traveling to Houston to face a stronger, predominantly right-handed lineup. He surrendered 26 of his 27 HRs to RHBs last season (.325 wOBA) and already allowed one in his first start. I like him for a cost up to around $9K against more balanced lineups.
Jon Gray is at home, but that is not necessarily the reason for little interest in him. It’s the combination of Coors and one of the top offenses vs RHP last year. Even still, he costs just $6.5K on DraftKings, making it slightly interesting. He struck out seven of 20 Brewers in his first start, but got into some trouble and lasted only four innings.
Trevor Bauer is someone DFS players either hate or love. I’m in the camp that doesn’t see the upside beyond his risk of potentially walking the ball park. His 12.1 K-BB% last year was perfectly average as is his cost today, but the park in Arizona is a decent sized downgrade.
Zack Greinke didn’t have terrible results his first time out (5 IP – 4 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K), but boy did he throw Bumgarner a meatball. They showed a graphic during the game that everyone’s velocity (who had pitched in the game) was up, except for Greinke, who was down 0.5 mph. Then we found out about the measuring alterations and he might be in some trouble. Cleveland found a way to squeeze both Santana and Encarnacion into the lineup last night, so this will not be an easier lineup to face.
Jeremy Guthrie is starting for a post-season contender. You never could have convinced me that was going to happen this year.
Tommy – Cubs? Is that who we’re all stacking today? Okay. He only threw 69 major league innings last year, but had a weird low aEV, high Barrels rate thing going on.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.6% | 6.0% | Home | 27.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.0% | 9.2% | Road | 20.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 0.0% | 7.7% | Road | 0.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.6% | Road | 21.3% | 10.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.6% | Home | 12.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.7% | Home | 28.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 3.6% | Road | 30.8% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.1% | Home | 20.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.3% | Road | 30.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.9% | Road | 23.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.3% | Road | 17.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Nationals | L2 Years | 12.7% | 6.6% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.8% | Home | 20.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 25.3% | 8.2% | Home | 27.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 10.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.1% | Home | 12.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.6% | 6.6% | Road | 12.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.4% | Home | 20.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 5.9% | Road | 21.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.7% | 5.2% | Road | 28.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.5% | Road | 17.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.5% | Home | 20.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.2% | 7.2% | Home | 16.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | ||
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.7% | Road | 18.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.9% | Home | 17.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.9% | Home | 23.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.5% | 6.7% | Home | 16.0% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.7% | 9.6% | Road | 20.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.1% | Home | 28.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 18.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.1% | 5.4% | Home | 16.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 20.8% | 8.3% | RH | 20.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Rays | Home | 25.9% | 7.7% | RH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.5% | 7.8% | LH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.0% | 9.2% | LH | 22.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 9.9% | RH | 22.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.7% | 8.9% | LH | 22.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 6.2% | LH | 20.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 9.0% | LH | 23.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.9% | 8.2% | LH | 21.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| Angels | Home | 16.2% | 7.9% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.2% | 7.2% | RH | 23.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | RH | 17.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.1% | 8.9% | RH | 18.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 10.1% | RH | 25.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.1% | 8.2% | LH | 25.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 8.1% | RH | 21.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
| Twins | Road | 24.4% | 8.7% | RH | 22.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Home | 25.9% | 7.7% | RH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | RH | 19.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 9.8% | LH | 20.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.6% | 7.8% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.9% | 7.2% | 2017 | 28.8% | 12.8% | 5.6% | Home | 27.4% | 23.7% | 0.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.3% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 2017 | 30.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | Road | 28.4% | 9.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | 2017 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | Road | 41.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | Road | 29.8% | 10.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | Home | 41.4% | 13.8% | 28.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.4% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 2017 | 32.8% | 16.2% | 14.8% | Home | 32.9% | 10.2% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | Road | 31.7% | 12.1% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 10.0% | 31.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 24.9% | 14.7% | 1.6% | 2017 | 29.8% | 16.4% | 8.7% | Home | 26.8% | 10.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 36.6% | 13.0% | 18.8% | Road | 33.8% | 14.0% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 5.4% | Road | 29.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.7% | 15.4% | 9.1% | 2017 | 28.7% | 14.5% | 12.1% | Road | 24.0% | 17.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 66.7% | 8.3% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 33.2% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 2017 | 31.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | Home | 29.3% | 5.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 28.6% | 43.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 2017 | 30.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | Home | 28.0% | 13.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 2017 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | Home | 33.0% | 14.1% | 16.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.9% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.9% | 12.1% | Road | 30.4% | 15.5% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.1% | 15.4% | 12.8% | Home | 29.0% | 11.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -23.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.8% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 2017 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 0.7% | Road | 25.9% | 11.2% | 1.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 31.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | Road | 35.0% | 14.9% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 62.5% | 16.7% | 43.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.7% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 2017 | 32.5% | 12.0% | 14.0% | Road | 31.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 53.9% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 2017 | 30.0% | 11.6% | 11.2% | Home | 33.3% | 12.7% | 14.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 6.8% | 10.5% | Home | 27.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | |||
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 2017 | 30.0% | 14.7% | 7.3% | Road | 27.8% | 13.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.9% | 17.5% | 2017 | 34.1% | 11.1% | 19.7% | Home | 29.9% | 9.9% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 29.2% | 3.4% | 10.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 3.6% | 10.3% | Home | 25.4% | 0.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 35.6% | 21.4% | 16.8% | Home | 33.7% | 23.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 31.9% | 11.6% | 12.9% | Road | 30.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 2017 | 30.0% | 12.0% | 7.2% | Home | 37.1% | 13.6% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 20.0% | 44.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 13.9% | 10.4% | Home | 35.7% | 11.6% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 33.5% | 13.3% | 15.4% | RH | 32.8% | 12.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Rays | Home | 33.4% | 13.4% | 14.4% | RH | 32.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.8% | 12.0% | 8.2% | LH | 31.2% | 13.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Home | 34.3% | 13.6% | 13.3% | LH | 33.3% | 14.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 28.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% | RH | 29.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.1% | 14.6% | 12.8% | RH | 33.3% | 15.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 34.9% | 15.9% | 18.5% | LH | 32.5% | 13.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Royals | Road | 29.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | LH | 31.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Home | 32.9% | 14.5% | 15.2% | LH | 34.3% | 14.4% | 17.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.7% | 13.2% | 16.2% | LH | 35.5% | 12.6% | 17.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Angels | Home | 29.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | RH | 30.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.3% | 12.2% | 3.8% | RH | 28.9% | 13.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Road | 31.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | RH | 29.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.8% | 12.2% | 17.3% | RH | 34.6% | 15.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 13.5% | 13.9% | RH | 34.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 31.5% | 13.7% | 12.2% | RH | 31.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% | RH | 29.5% | 13.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.3% | 16.3% | 16.7% | RH | 32.2% | 15.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Padres | Home | 30.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% | LH | 32.5% | 14.9% | 14.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.1% | 16.6% | 12.0% | RH | 33.1% | 16.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.5% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Reds | Road | 28.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | RH | 30.0% | 11.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| Twins | Road | 30.6% | 13.6% | 11.2% | RH | 31.1% | 12.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Rays | Home | 33.4% | 13.4% | 14.4% | RH | 32.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | RH | 31.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | RH | 29.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.2% | 14.4% | 13.4% | LH | 29.6% | 14.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.2% | 17.7% | 20.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.9% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.9% | 12.6% | 11.1% | RH | 29.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Indians | Road | 30.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | RH | 31.5% | 12.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.3% | 13.3% | 16.1% | RH | 34.2% | 14.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 25.1% | 9.6% | 2.61 | |||
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 20.4% | 8.2% | 2.49 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 2.37 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.00 | |||
| Adam Conley | FLA | 21.2% | 9.8% | 2.16 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.26 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.6% | 8.9% | 1.98 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 27.4% | 12.2% | 2.25 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 1.84 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 31.6% | 15.3% | 2.07 | 26.2% | 12.0% | 2.18 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.5% | 9.6% | 2.14 | |||
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 25.7% | 12.9% | 1.99 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.78 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.06 | 28.1% | 13.0% | 2.16 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 18.6% | 9.6% | 1.94 | 12.7% | 8.9% | 1.43 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | WAS | ||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.27 | 23.6% | 10.3% | 2.29 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 26.0% | 12.1% | 2.15 | 27.6% | 12.7% | 2.17 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.7% | 7.7% | 1.91 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.65 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 13.7% | 7.4% | 1.85 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 2.36 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.13 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 1.83 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.28 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 2.39 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.5% | 11.5% | 2.39 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.26 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.88 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 1.51 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 18.8% | 8.1% | 2.32 | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.21 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 16.8% | 8.0% | 2.10 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 2.03 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 17.3% | 10.6% | 1.63 | 22.2% | 14.3% | 1.55 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 17.6% | 9.2% | 1.91 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 1.92 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 22.7% | 9.1% | 2.49 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 2.84 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 15.8% | 8.7% | 1.82 | 33.3% | 12.7% | 2.62 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 20.7% | 9.0% | 2.30 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 31.7% | 12.6% | 2.52 | 34.7% | 13.6% | 2.55 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 20.1% | 10.4% | 1.93 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 2.08 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN |
When a knuckleballer is your only outlier, something’s being done right.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.78 | 3.29 | -1.49 | 3.08 | -1.7 | 3.08 | -1.7 | 2.85 | -1.93 | |||||||
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3 | 4.01 | 1.01 | 3.75 | 0.75 | 3.55 | 0.55 | 3.64 | 0.64 | 3.64 | 4.65 | 1.01 | 4.7 | 1.06 | 4.6 | 0.96 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 7.71 | 7.02 | -0.69 | 8 | 0.29 | 4.43 | -3.28 | 6.82 | -0.89 | |||||||
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.85 | 4.64 | 0.79 | 4.84 | 0.99 | 4.2 | 0.35 | 4.68 | 0.83 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 4.48 | 4.48 | 2.81 | 2.81 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.53 | 0.33 | 3.95 | -0.25 | 4.55 | 0.35 | 5.32 | 4.12 | -1.2 | 4.21 | -1.11 | 3.06 | -2.26 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 4.02 | 3.5 | -0.52 | 3.41 | -0.61 | 3.81 | -0.21 | 3.23 | -0.79 | 3.62 | 3.64 | 0.02 | 3.78 | 0.16 | 4.29 | 0.67 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.69 | 2.41 | 0.72 | 2.28 | 0.59 | 1.8 | 0.11 | 2.10 | 0.41 | 1.29 | 2.98 | 1.69 | 2.92 | 1.63 | 2.36 | 1.07 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.55 | 3.77 | -0.78 | 3.53 | -1.02 | 3.87 | -0.68 | 3.72 | -0.83 | |||||||
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.51 | 3.53 | 0.02 | 3.79 | 0.28 | 3.83 | 0.32 | 3.69 | 0.18 | 5.34 | 3.94 | -1.4 | 3.79 | -1.55 | 5.52 | 0.18 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.71 | 4.44 | -0.27 | 4.72 | 0.01 | 4.43 | -0.28 | 3.92 | -0.79 | 3.27 | 3.75 | 0.48 | 4.42 | 1.15 | 2.93 | -0.34 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.82 | 4.63 | 0.81 | 4.45 | 0.63 | 4.63 | 0.81 | 3.73 | -0.09 | 5.12 | 5.42 | 0.3 | 5.12 | 0 | 5.39 | 0.27 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | WAS | ||||||||||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.81 | 4.38 | -0.43 | 4.21 | -0.6 | 4.01 | -0.8 | 4.21 | -0.60 | 1.33 | 3.63 | 2.3 | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.04 | 1.71 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.61 | 3.72 | -0.89 | 3.61 | -1 | 3.6 | -1.01 | 3.81 | -0.80 | 5.52 | 3.56 | -1.96 | 3.42 | -2.1 | 3.21 | -2.31 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 4.87 | 4.81 | -0.06 | 4.84 | -0.03 | 4.42 | -0.45 | 4.84 | -0.03 | 10.13 | 6.15 | -3.98 | 6.81 | -3.32 | 10.4 | 0.27 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.11 | 4.57 | 0.46 | 4.38 | 0.27 | 4.39 | 0.28 | 4.13 | 0.02 | 4.91 | 4.17 | -0.74 | 3.85 | -1.06 | 3.04 | -1.87 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 3.61 | 3.81 | 0.2 | 3.77 | 0.16 | 4.1 | 0.49 | 3.72 | 0.11 | 3.18 | 3.91 | 0.73 | 3.86 | 0.68 | 3.9 | 0.72 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 2.13 | 3.7 | 1.57 | 3.59 | 1.46 | 3.2 | 1.07 | 3.01 | 0.88 | 2.32 | 3.23 | 0.91 | 3.18 | 0.86 | 2.57 | 0.25 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.74 | 3.36 | 0.62 | 3.54 | 0.8 | 3.24 | 0.5 | 3.36 | 0.62 | 3.92 | 3.04 | -0.88 | 3.56 | -0.36 | 3.17 | -0.75 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.07 | 3.79 | 0.72 | 3.61 | 0.54 | 3.51 | 0.44 | 3.20 | 0.13 | 2.7 | 4.47 | 1.77 | 4.42 | 1.72 | 5.17 | 2.47 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 5.09 | 4.31 | -0.78 | 4.05 | -1.04 | 3.91 | -1.18 | 5.20 | 0.11 | 17.55 | 4.44 | -13.11 | 4.59 | -12.96 | 7.95 | -9.6 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.73 | 4.61 | 0.88 | 4.65 | 0.92 | 3.71 | -0.02 | 3.99 | 0.26 | 2.76 | 4.87 | 2.11 | 5.11 | 2.35 | 2.96 | 0.2 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.46 | 4.81 | 0.35 | 4.76 | 0.3 | 5.03 | 0.57 | 4.64 | 0.18 | 4.82 | 4.17 | -0.65 | 4.32 | -0.5 | 3.04 | -1.78 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.42 | 4.39 | -0.03 | 4.41 | -0.01 | 4.14 | -0.28 | 3.97 | -0.45 | 1.85 | 4.3 | 2.45 | 4.14 | 2.29 | 3 | 1.15 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 2.42 | 3.76 | 1.34 | 3.38 | 0.96 | 2.63 | 0.21 | 3.93 | 1.51 | 2.06 | 3.43 | 1.37 | 3.04 | 0.98 | 2.46 | 0.4 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 5.71 | 4.61 | -1.1 | 4.41 | -1.3 | 5.54 | -0.17 | 6.26 | 0.55 | 6.23 | 3.79 | -2.44 | 3.22 | -3.01 | 5.45 | -0.78 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.26 | 4.22 | -0.04 | 4.13 | -0.13 | 3.99 | -0.27 | 4.12 | -0.14 | 6.39 | 4.11 | -2.28 | 4.03 | -2.36 | 4.38 | -2.01 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.41 | 3.08 | -0.33 | 3.19 | -0.22 | 3.09 | -0.32 | 3.21 | -0.20 | 4.4 | 2.86 | -1.54 | 2.88 | -1.52 | 2.73 | -1.67 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 4.37 | 4.11 | -0.26 | 3.98 | -0.39 | 4.12 | -0.25 | 3.41 | -0.96 | 5.56 | 4.89 | -0.67 | 4.81 | -0.75 | 6.98 | 1.42 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN |
This last season seems to have produced more large gaps from ERA to estimators than I can remember since I’ve gotten interested in this sort of thing. I think part of it was the spike in HRs that at least xFIP wasn’t ready to handle last year. You’ll see fewer discrepancies in FIP (which uses actual HR rate).
Aaron Nola will better a 60.6% strand rate and shouldn’t allow the .400+ BABIP he did after May.
Adam Conley had an 8.5 HR/FB that wouldn’t have seemed like that big a deal until last year, but it’s the main separator from his estimators, though his 77.3 LOB% was a bit high for his skill set.
Dallas Keuchel had slight strand rate and HR issues, not too far from the norm though.
Kyle Hendricks broke the estimators with incredible contact management and a great defense, which led him to a .250 BABIP and 80.1 LOB%. Some regression has to be expected.
Madison Bumgarner allowed the lowest BABIP of his career and allowed just seven of his 26 HRs at home (6.1 HR/FB).
Robert Gsellman had just a 3.6 HR/FB, as mentioned above.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.304 | 0.334 | 0.03 | 55.2% | 0.2 | 3.8% | 85.9% | 87.6 | 4.30% | 2.50% | 282 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.282 | 0.267 | -0.015 | 54.4% | 0.205 | 7.1% | 87.0% | 90.7 | 6.20% | 3.90% | 500 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.319 | 0.417 | 0.098 | 33.3% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.303 | 0.299 | -0.004 | 38.2% | 0.207 | 9.8% | 87.5% | 88.5 | 7.30% | 3.90% | 315 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 44.3% | 0.196 | 7.6% | 87.5% | 89.7 | 5.90% | 3.70% | 185 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.297 | 0.296 | -0.001 | 47.8% | 0.177 | 7.6% | 84.7% | 90.7 | 8.40% | 4.80% | 488 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.288 | 0.254 | -0.034 | 49.4% | 0.205 | 15.1% | 80.3% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 2.90% | 316 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 56.7% | 0.19 | 10.7% | 88.5% | 89 | 6.90% | 4.30% | 452 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.291 | -0.007 | 36.4% | 0.209 | 8.2% | 81.3% | 90.2 | 8.50% | 5.10% | 436 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.293 | 0.278 | -0.015 | 31.6% | 0.224 | 11.8% | 85.9% | 86.3 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 267 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.292 | 0.271 | -0.021 | 50.2% | 0.205 | 8.4% | 90.8% | 89 | 5.60% | 3.50% | 411 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | WAS | 0.288 | ||||||||||
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 48.4% | 0.229 | 11.8% | 91.5% | 89.7 | 5.10% | 3.20% | 395 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.317 | 0.308 | -0.009 | 43.5% | 0.245 | 8.5% | 86.6% | 88.7 | 6.20% | 3.50% | 403 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.300 | 0.304 | 0.004 | 43.1% | 0.18 | 14.7% | 89.6% | 88.5 | 6.90% | 4.90% | 319 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.299 | 0.289 | -0.01 | 52.1% | 0.205 | 6.5% | 90.9% | 90 | 5.90% | 4.20% | 557 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.299 | 0.308 | 0.009 | 44.1% | 0.212 | 14.3% | 86.5% | 89.4 | 8.20% | 4.60% | 429 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.255 | 0.250 | -0.005 | 48.4% | 0.202 | 9.3% | 87.2% | 87.2 | 3.80% | 2.10% | 417 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.287 | 0.265 | -0.022 | 39.6% | 0.189 | 11.1% | 84.2% | 89.1 | 7.60% | 4.20% | 500 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.292 | 0.271 | -0.021 | 48.2% | 0.207 | 12.0% | 87.3% | 89.7 | 4.40% | 2.90% | 526 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.304 | 0.334 | 0.03 | 46.6% | 0.239 | 6.2% | 88.1% | 88.5 | 6.20% | 4.00% | 390 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 40.1% | 0.218 | 9.3% | 89.0% | 88.1 | 3.90% | 2.70% | 387 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.282 | 0.279 | -0.003 | 42.1% | 0.219 | 14.1% | 81.9% | 88.1 | 7.60% | 5.10% | 488 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.301 | 0.294 | -0.007 | 43.1% | 0.188 | 5.5% | 90.0% | 89.1 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 561 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.308 | 0.325 | 0.017 | 54.2% | 0.225 | 14.3% | 90.5% | 90.7 | 3.20% | 1.60% | 95 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 0.300 | 0.308 | 0.008 | 45.7% | 0.244 | 5.7% | 86.3% | 87.4 | 8.60% | 6.10% | 220 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.289 | 0.292 | 0.003 | 48.7% | 0.204 | 8.7% | 86.9% | 90.4 | 6.70% | 3.90% | 480 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.292 | 0.290 | -0.002 | 40.4% | 0.196 | 10.0% | 81.8% | 86.7 | 5.40% | 2.90% | 224 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.320 | 0.294 | -0.026 | 45.9% | 0.195 | 10.8% | 90.5% | 88.7 | 8.40% | 5.10% | 406 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.290 |
There are no significant outliers worth worrying about. Aaron Nola does need to induce a few more popups though. Or at least a few period.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (2) may be at Coors, but his cost has been adjusted down several thousand dollars to account for this. In fact, he’s only the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings today. You could alter gravity to make the atmosphere like the moon and I’d still take Kershaw at this price. (Well, maybe not because it would be difficult to make plays on defense in a moon like gravity setting.)
Value Tier Two
Madison Bumgarner (1) may be the top overall pitcher tonight when considering his matchup and that’s something you almost never say with Kershaw on the board. However, he is the top priced pitcher by a significant margin, also something you never say with Kershaw on the board. I’m wavering quite a bit between Tier One and Two status for him tonight.
Kyle Hendricks (3) has a nice matchup that should boost his strikeout rate as he limits the impact of the contact they do make. Like Keuchel, $9K may not often be ideal for a dependent pitcher, but he does have significant strikeout upside in this spot.
Dallas Keuchel (4t) isn’t cheap at around $9K on either site, but he looked good in his first start and faces an offense that struggled to make good contact.
Value Tier Three
Robert Gsellman (6) has the ability to be the third best pitcher in this rotation…is something I would say if I were writing a bold predictions column (like on Rotographs). This could go bad and he could turn back into the guy he was for most of his minor league journey, but it didn’t happen in March. If it weren’t for that small bit of risk, I’d probably push him up a tier. I may even have some kind of reverse bias going on as a Mets fan, fearing pushing him too high. If he repeats his major league performance from last year and this spring, he could easily exceed a $7K price tag.
Kendall Graveman was differently impressive, but also concerning in his first start. What I mean by that is that if he generated the same amount of hard contact in Texas tonight that he did in his first start, it could be more problematic, but if his newfound velocity is going to give him that kind of strikeout upside $4.9K might be a bargain as a speculative add in your P2 spot behind an Ace tonight.
Yu Darvish (4t) struggled greatly in his first start. It’s not enough to move off him yet, especially in a better matchup tonight, but it might be enough to bump him down at a cost around $10K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Aaron Nola is better than he showed after May last year. He may have to make some adjustments to get there, but it’s more likely than not that will happen. Continuing to strikeout batters and generate ground balls at above average rates even when things were going wrong is a good sign, giving him significant upside at a moderate price tag to start the season. The matchup at home against the Nats is anywhere from neutral to slightly negative.
Adam Conley has a pretty wide range of outcomes and some of them might be disastrous if he can’t find the plate. However, the best of those outcomes should easily exceed a sub-$7K price tag.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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