Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 10th
All 30 teams are in action on Tuesday with three games removed from the main evening slate. Those are the pitchers we’ll focus on, though all pitchers will be listed. Incidentally, a quick look at the Cleveland schedule shows that they’re going to continue with these early starts at home until around June, removing most of their home games off the main slate until then.
Top pitchers and strong mid-range options almost all performed well yesterday. It could have been even better if Syndergaard didn’t appear to suffer a blister during the middle innings of a start against the Marlins that he had been breezing through. Tuesday night is another strong pitching board. Let’s see if we can make it two strong nights in a row.
Stats for 2018 are now being included. The remaining exceptions are for Statcast, team defense, and anywhere where you see full single season stats. In other words, the main table includes 2018 stats and anything that says last 14 or last 30 days is for 2018, but “season” is still 2017. This also gives us an addition point of comparison in the strikeout and ERA tables. Next week, everything should be updated to include 2018 after three times through the rotation.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -0.6 | 3.54 | 5.9 | 52.3% | 0.97 | 2.96 | 4.64 | Reds | 88 | 84 | 88 |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.35 | 6.0 | 53.2% | 0.99 | 5.16 | 4.44 | Orioles | 44 | 59 | 102 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -4.7 | 5.13 | 5.4 | 47.8% | 0.99 | 5.54 | 4.11 | Blue Jays | 118 | 106 | 131 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 3.2 | 4.65 | 5.0 | 40.3% | 0.98 | 5.11 | 5.25 | White Sox | 93 | 152 | 106 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.37 | 5.0 | 42.5% | 0.92 | 3.99 | 4.36 | Cardinals | 47 | 89 | 73 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 3.6 | 4.87 | 3.8 | 28.6% | 0.88 | 4.84 | 5.11 | Mets | 95 | 61 | 97 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.8 | 3.92 | 6.4 | 53.8% | 0.92 | 3.66 | 3.98 | Brewers | 99 | 83 | 70 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | -0.1 | 4.97 | 3.9 | 36.5% | 0.98 | 6.97 | 2.85 | Rays | 87 | 87 | 89 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 3.6 | 2.98 | 6.8 | 39.9% | 1.10 | 2.89 | 2.09 | Yankees | 108 | 117 | 119 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -3.7 | 3.70 | 6.3 | 61.2% | 1.05 | 3.39 | 4.57 | Twins | 92 | 122 | 103 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 0.5 | 5.83 | 2.8 | 36.4% | 1.04 | 5.06 | Mariners | 97 | 149 | 101 | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.1 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 48.5% | 1.04 | 4.63 | 6.24 | Royals | 123 | 75 | 79 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 4.8 | 4.92 | 4.8 | 44.2% | 0.97 | 4.99 | 5.87 | Phillies | 157 | 87 | 110 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 4.2 | 4.48 | 5.0 | 44.7% | 0.90 | 3.79 | 8.13 | Athletics | 135 | 93 | 127 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.1 | 4.18 | 5.8 | 48.8% | 1.01 | 4.24 | 4.71 | Cubs | 103 | 105 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.1 | 3.52 | 6.3 | 45.4% | 0.88 | 3.27 | 3.25 | Marlins | 88 | 61 | 47 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.8 | 4.54 | 5.4 | 34.2% | 1.05 | 4.79 | 4.39 | Astros | 119 | 97 | 80 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | -4.1 | 3.91 | 4.6 | 40.7% | 1.33 | 3.91 | Rockies | 68 | 103 | 64 | |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | -1.8 | 4.01 | 6.4 | 45.3% | 0.93 | 4.91 | 4.87 | Diamondbacks | 70 | 89 | 82 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 2.2 | 4.24 | 5.7 | 41.5% | 1.06 | 3.99 | 7.41 | Tigers | 71 | 76 | 50 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | -0.3 | 3.42 | 5.8 | 49.9% | 1.10 | 2.97 | 2.17 | Red Sox | 129 | 115 | 113 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | -1.4 | 5.05 | 5.9 | 50.5% | 1.15 | 4.87 | 4.78 | Angels | 119 | 106 | 145 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | -2 | 4.73 | 5.3 | 37.4% | 1.06 | 4.89 | 7.52 | Indians | 34 | 68 | 25 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | -0.4 | 4.30 | 5.5 | 40.4% | 1.01 | 4.80 | 2.33 | Nationals | 81 | 121 | 91 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 4.16 | 5.7 | 51.9% | 0.93 | 4.04 | 1.27 | Giants | 109 | 75 | 105 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | -7.7 | 4.24 | 5.7 | 44.3% | 0.90 | 4.77 | 3.16 | Dodgers | 55 | 59 | 46 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.7 | 3.26 | 6.2 | 43.3% | 1.01 | 3.41 | 3.06 | Braves | 85 | 119 | 114 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.01 | 5.6 | 46.7% | 1.33 | 3.63 | 4.61 | Padres | 89 | 104 | 90 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 3.9 | 4.77 | 5.7 | 57.2% | 1.01 | 4.14 | 6.82 | Pirates | 122 | 131 | 130 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.7 | 4.32 | 5.2 | 42.7% | 1.15 | 4.22 | 3.12 | Rangers | 91 | 88 | 107 |
Aaron Nola has been held below 90 pitches in each of his first two starts. The first was inexcusable, as he was cruising in the sixth inning with just 68 pitches. Last week, he walked four Mets though 87 pitches and five innings. His ground ball rate remains over 50% and he has a 0.0 Hard-Soft%, while the velocity is down slightly and of no concern. His 9.7 SwStr% so far is league average. He was one of the top pitchers on the board last year in terms of getting swings out of the zone as opposed to inside of it, perhaps explaining some strong Statcast numbers as well. I’m remaining cautiously optimistic here in a winnable matchup against a Cincinnati offense that’s already banged up.
Aaron Sanchez struggled, but did not look bad against the Yankees, then struck out seven White Sox, but still allowed three runs in six innings. The good news is that he’s throwing the same hard sinker that’s generating a 57.1 GB% and 2.8 Hard-Soft% so far. He’s also getting more swings and misses than he usually does (11.2 SwStr%). For his career now, he has grounded pitchers on 60.3% of batted balls, which should serve him well in this matchup against a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup. The Orioles are striking out in 29.2% of plate appearances vs RHP so far with just a 2.9 Hard-Soft%.
Carlos Martinez dominated this Milwaukee lineup in a tough park after crashing on Opening Day against a more patient Mets one. The concern is always with his lack of control against LHBs, but with Christian Yelich out, this looks like a more favorable spot for him, especially at home. Milwuakee has not started strong and has a 27.2 K% vs RHP.
Chris Sale has yet to exceed 93 pitches and only made it through five strong innings (six strikeouts) against the Marlins last time out. Not exactly what backers were looking for. Perhaps they were saving him for this showdown against the fearsome Yankees. Yes, they’re scary, but they swing and miss too. It’s really hard to find spots not to like this guy in, unless that smaller workload stuff is going to be a thing.
Jacob deGrom has allowed two ERs in 11.2 innings with 12 strikeouts (four walks, no homers) and hasn’t had his best stuff. He claimed difficulty gripping his slider in the cold weather first time out and seemed to battle through a tough Washington lineup in his second. If that’s how it looks when he’s struggling then he should punish the Marlins…theoretically.
Luis Severino has begun this season similar to how he left off last year. He’s struck out seven in each of his first two starts, being held below 95 pitches. One would hope and expect he’d be good for 100 tonight. If they’re not going to let him loose against the Red Sox, then what are they waiting for? He has a 72.4 GB% and -6.9 Hard-Soft% through two starts.
Patrick Corbin had a bit of a breakout in 2017. Over his last 20 starts, he had a 23.7 K% (51.3 GB%) and an ERA and FIP both below three and a half pitching in one of the worst pitching environments in baseball. He also held his hard hit rate below 30% over that stretch. For the season, his .314 xwOBA was 27 points below his actual one. Through two starts this year, he’s broken out of that breakout, striking out 20 of 48 batters. He seems to be the only guy the humidor is working for and now he gets a massive park upgrade in San Francisco. Off-season additions are supposed to make the Giants pretty formidable against LHP this year, but that hasn’t worked out yet (15.7 K-BB%) and they actually lead the majors with 184 PAs against southpaws so far.
Sean Manaea has efficiently used 189 pitches to throw 15.2 innings through two starts. While his strikeout rate remains league average, his SwStr rate is up even further (12.7%) and he’s walked just one guy! He’s had previous issues with RHBs and they still have a 37.5 Hard% and 43.8 GB% against him this year, but if he’s going to run a 17.1 K-BB% against them, it’s a manageable fault. The Dodgers should be a challenge, but they’ve struggled against LHP early on without Justin Turner.
Stephen Strasburg has allowed three HRs in 12.1 innings, but otherwise seems to be on pace with last season. His 13.6 SwStr% is actually slightly higher and his non-FIP estimators are in the low threes through two starts. His 48.6 GB% is an improvement on his career rate and he has just a 2.7 Hard-Soft%. The Braves had been really good until they ran into Scherzer last night.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Brent Suter (.306 – 77.2% – 10.4) ironically had what would have been a league average HR rate prior to last season, but now seems unsustainable in Milwaukee. He does seem to miss enough bats and manage contact well. Actually, much better than well. His 84 mph aEV and 23.7% 95+ mph EV are best on the board with his Effective Velocity up almost a mile from what it looks like, which helps when you’re actually throwing 86 mph. He had two rough innings in his last start and he doesn’t seem to be a guy they want to go more than two times through the order, but I don’t hate him in a secondary role in this spot in a favorable park. The ball does not carry in St Louis in April, but the upside is limited.
Andrew Cashner (.266 – 74% – 8.6) has a 23.3 K% and has allowed four HRs through two starts. So basically, the opposite of everything he did last year. His SwStr% is up (8.4), but still below average. There’s no reason to buy here, but he has been traditionally much better against same-handed hitters, which doesn’t bode exceptionally well for a righty-centric Jays lineup.
Jake Odorizzi (.227 – 72.5% – 15.5) may have the chilly conditions in his favor here, but not much else as a fly ball oriented, reverse platoon RHP against the Astros.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Eric Skoglund had a 16.7 K-BB% in his age 24 season at AAA last year (100 innings), when he was the number eight prospect in a weak Kansas City system per Fangraphs. He had a 2.2 K-BB% in 18 major league innings and hasn’t thrown a competitive in season pitch anywhere yet this year. At lower levels of the minors, he’s been a marginal strikeout guy with good control. That might get him something at a very low cost tonight, but he’s unlikely to be a lineup difference maker.
Dallas Keuchel struggled to throw strikes last time out and he’s one of the few pitchers where you can ask “what’s wrong” when he shows up with a 54.1 GB%. The good news is the contact quality remains exceptional (-2.7 Hard-Soft%). Strikeouts are down, but his SwStr% is still respectable. It is a bit concerning that he was not able to generate strikeouts against Baltimore and Texas. Velocity is down more than half a mile per hour, bringing him below an 89 mph average, but it’s all about location with him. He should be pitching in favorably cold conditions in Minnesota, but that’s a lineup with the potential to mash lefties and I’d be a little less confident without him missing many bats so far.
Hyun-Jin Ryu walked five in his first start and is one of those two times through the order and out guys. He had just a 2.7 SwStr%. The A’s have some right-handed thunder, but will swing and miss. They lose the DH tonight. He has a reverse split. I have no idea how all of that works out.
Mike Foltynewicz struck out eight of 22 Nationals last time out. I have no idea where to place him today because I don’t believe in the early season strikeout boost at all and he has severe platoon splits for his career (LHBs .371 wOBA). The Nationals have a lot of RHBs, but they also have Bryce Harper, who should almost count as multiple guys at this point.
Tyler Skaggs is another pitcher I have no idea where to place. A somewhat average arm at an average cost against an offense that swings and misses some, but it’s a dangerous park and he’s not a superior contact manager. I also have no idea what to think of the massive increase in SwStr% so far. His velocity isn’t really up much and he’s throwing more sinkers (and a few more curves), a pitch he hasn’t thrown much since 2014, not exactly a huge strikeout pitch. He would seem the guy I could be most wrong about tonight if that SwStr% is real.
Tyler Beede replaces Johnny Cueto. A former prospect of some note, his control is questionable and he struck out just 17.4% at AAA last season. This is his major league debut. The park is his ally here. I’m not even sure if he’s available on daily fantasy sites yet.
Tyler Anderson appears to be continuing on his path of unpredictability from last season. His two starts have been stark opposites. He’s cheap and facing an offense that swings and misses a lot, but is impossible to trust at Coors right now. The Padres do have some lefty-mashers now, even without Wil Myers.
Joey Lucchesi one hit the Rockies for five innings, striking out seven of 18 batters in San Diego, but has been held below 85 pitches in each of his two starts and steps out of San Diego for the first time in three starts. He has some deception to his delivery, but he’s going to need more than that at Coors. The cost remains nothing though.
Felix Hernandez looked good in his first start, then walked five and allowed three HRs in San Francisco of all parks. Velocity is not really a thing for him anymore, but he was down a mile and a half from his first start and averaging 88.8 mph in his last one.
Caleb Smith has a 15.1 BB% and 28.6 GB% in 27 major league innings to go along with his 23.8 K%. It would seem nearly impossible to get him through six innings.
Martin Perez was attacked by a bull. He killed and ate that bull. Mike Trout strong, like bull. Let’s see him try to eat Mike Trout.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 7.0% | 12.7% | 6.9% | Season | 26.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 8.1% | Home | 29.9% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 6.0% | L14Days | 16.7% | 11.9% | 12.5% | |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | Season | 14.4% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 8.2% | Road | 15.5% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 10.8% | L14Days | 17.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 16.1% | Season | 12.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | Home | 12.0% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 13.2% | L14Days | 23.3% | 11.6% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 11.4% | Season | 21.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 14.1% | Road | 18.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.9% | L14Days | 18.4% | 13.2% | 13.3% | -3.9% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 6.8% | Season | 18.8% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 5.2% | Road | 17.5% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | L14Days | 19.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 15.6% | Season | 20.9% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 13.8% | Home | 26.2% | 13.1% | 20.0% | 35.2% | L14Days | 30.0% | 22.5% | 9.1% | 21.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 11.4% | Season | 25.3% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 12.7% | Home | 24.4% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 6.7% | L14Days | 26.8% | 14.3% | 6.4% | |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.7% | Season | 18.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 1.5% | Home | 21.8% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 5.9% | L14Days | 23.8% | 4.8% | 13.3% | |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 31.0% | 5.1% | 11.9% | 12.8% | Season | 36.2% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | Home | 33.3% | 5.1% | 16.0% | 11.3% | L14Days | 37.5% | 7.5% | -4.5% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.3% | 18.3% | 4.2% | Season | 21.4% | 8.1% | 21.1% | -0.7% | Road | 20.9% | 8.1% | 27.9% | 2.1% | L14Days | 14.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | -2.7% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 20.9% | Season | 15.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 20.9% | Home | 18.5% | 9.3% | 15.4% | L14Days | |||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 9.0% | 18.1% | 12.2% | Season | 21.2% | 7.1% | 22.4% | 11.6% | Road | 18.0% | 7.2% | 28.2% | 17.5% | L14Days | 11.6% | 16.3% | 25.0% | 3.3% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 15.5% | Season | 16.0% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 14.5% | Road | 15.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 16.0% | L14Days | 10.0% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 25.6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.9% | 17.8% | 18.9% | Season | 21.4% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 17.6% | Home | 22.8% | 7.5% | 23.1% | 18.1% | L14Days | 10.0% | 25.0% | 30.8% | |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 4.5% | 15.7% | 17.6% | Season | 16.7% | 4.6% | 15.8% | 18.2% | Road | 17.5% | 5.2% | 18.3% | 22.4% | L14Days | 15.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 26.7% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 10.8% | Season | 28.9% | 7.1% | 16.1% | 10.6% | Road | 26.6% | 5.9% | 18.4% | 11.4% | L14Days | 26.1% | 8.7% | -10.0% | |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 18.8% | Season | 21.0% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 21.5% | Home | 21.7% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 25.2% | L14Days | 20.9% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 7.5% | 17.3% | Season | Road | L14Days | 20.0% | 7.5% | 17.3% | ||||||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | Season | 21.0% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 18.0% | Home | 17.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 19.4% | L14Days | 10.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 2.6% | 16.5% | 19.9% | Season | 18.6% | 2.4% | 13.7% | 22.2% | Home | 19.3% | 3.0% | 16.7% | 21.8% | L14Days | 5.6% | 5.6% | 40.0% | 37.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 27.2% | 7.0% | 14.5% | 8.3% | Season | 29.4% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 9.1% | Road | 29.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | L14Days | 29.8% | 8.5% | -6.9% | |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 12.9% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 17.3% | Season | 14.2% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 18.1% | Home | 14.5% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 18.3% | L14Days | 3.9% | 50.0% | ||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 12.4% | Season | 18.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.6% | Road | 19.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | L14Days | 4.6% | 9.5% | ||
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 11.3% | Season | 20.7% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 12.3% | Road | 20.1% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 12.8% | L14Days | 34.1% | 6.8% | 20.0% | 20.8% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 17.5% | Season | 21.6% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 13.1% | Road | 21.3% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 12.9% | L14Days | 41.7% | 4.2% | 28.6% | 19.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 16.6% | Season | 20.2% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 18.5% | Road | 19.3% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 19.4% | L14Days | 20.8% | 1.9% | 6.7% | 10.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.8% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 5.7% | Season | 29.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | Home | 28.5% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | L14Days | 24.1% | 5.6% | 27.3% | 2.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 5.9% | Season | 22.4% | 7.2% | 19.5% | 7.9% | Home | 23.5% | 7.7% | 11.8% | L14Days | 18.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% | |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 8.8% | Season | 19.0% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 7.0% | Home | 18.6% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 12.7% | L14Days | 14.8% | 22.2% | -11.7% | |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 12.1% | Season | 20.8% | 7.7% | 14.1% | 11.4% | Road | 24.1% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 8.2% | L14Days | 23.3% | 4.7% | 20.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 21.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% | RH | 23.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.9% | 10.9% | 7.7% | -2.2% | RH | 29.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 7.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 24.2% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 13.3% | RH | 28.1% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 13.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.2% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | LH | 30.5% | 7.6% | 38.9% | 29.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 5.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.0% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 11.9% | LH | 33.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% | 35.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% |
| Mets | Road | 29.0% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 5.3% | LH | 35.1% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 15.9% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 15.0% | RH | 27.2% | 6.3% | 12.7% | 14.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 4.1% |
| Rays | Road | 24.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | RH | 22.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.7% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 6.8% | LH | 17.1% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Twins | Home | 25.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | LH | 23.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 16.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | LH | 19.4% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Home | 12.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 20.0% | RH | 15.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 13.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.5% | 14.5% | 17.4% | 4.7% | RH | 27.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 0.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 0.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.3% | 11.6% | 28.0% | 27.4% | LH | 22.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 20.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 30.4% |
| Cubs | Home | RH | 23.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | ||||
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | RH | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.7% | -4.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Astros | Road | 26.3% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 25.8% | RH | 25.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 1.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.8% | 9.4% | 21.4% | -4.1% | LH | 29.4% | 12.2% | 29.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 0.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 22.0% | RH | 24.2% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 16.5% | L7Days | 26.0% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 21.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 6.2% | RH | 19.5% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 15.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 22.8% | RH | 15.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 23.3% | L7Days | 15.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 22.9% |
| Angels | Road | 14.6% | 2.9% | 8.9% | 13.1% | LH | 22.2% | 4.2% | 18.8% | 15.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.2% | 23.7% | 25.9% |
| Indians | Home | 19.7% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 21.8% | LH | 17.4% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 23.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 22.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 23.6% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 10.8% | RH | 19.0% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 13.1% |
| Giants | Home | 23.5% | 4.5% | 17.8% | 18.7% | LH | 21.7% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 4.5% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 8.7% | LH | 25.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 12.2% |
| Braves | Road | 17.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 5.6% | RH | 18.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Road | 28.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | -1.0% | LH | 22.5% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 19.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 5.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | RH | 13.3% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 12.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 14.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 23.3% | LH | 18.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 14.8% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 19.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 26.6% | 10.8% | 2.46 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 1.72 |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 14.4% | 5.6% | 2.57 | 17.3% | 11.2% | 1.54 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.00 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.77 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 21.8% | 10.8% | 2.02 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 1.52 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 1.90 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 20.9% | 13.2% | 1.58 | 30.0% | 15.8% | 1.90 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 25.3% | 10.6% | 2.39 | 26.8% | 10.8% | 2.48 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.16 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.16 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 36.2% | 14.9% | 2.43 | 37.5% | 17.3% | 2.17 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 21.4% | 10.9% | 1.96 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 15.1% | 6.5% | 2.32 | |||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.21 | 11.6% | 8.2% | 1.41 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.72 | 10.0% | 6.4% | 1.56 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 21.4% | 11.0% | 1.95 | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.70 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 2.27 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 28.9% | 13.3% | 2.17 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 2.21 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.88 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 1.79 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 20.0% | 10.7% | 1.87 | |||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 21.0% | 10.6% | 1.98 | 10.6% | 7.0% | 1.51 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 18.6% | 8.4% | 2.21 | 5.6% | 10.4% | 0.54 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 29.4% | 13.0% | 2.26 | 29.8% | 10.4% | 2.87 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 14.2% | 7.3% | 1.95 | 3.9% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 | 4.6% | 12.5% | 0.37 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 20.7% | 9.4% | 2.20 | 34.1% | 8.6% | 3.97 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 21.6% | 11.1% | 1.95 | 41.7% | 17.8% | 2.34 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 20.2% | 11.4% | 1.77 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 1.64 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 29.1% | 13.0% | 2.24 | 24.1% | 13.6% | 1.77 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 22.4% | 12.0% | 1.87 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 1.79 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 1.95 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 20.8% | 8.1% | 2.57 | 23.3% | 13.4% | 1.74 |
Luis Severino has missed fewer bats, yet retained his K%, but he’s still in double digits and it’s only been two starts.
Mike Foltynewicz has a below average SwStr% through two starts. It was higher last year.
Patrick Corbin is having a start.
Sean Manaea continues to be interesting and now he’s not walking anybody.
Tyler Skaggs …hmmmm.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 3.54 | 3.60 | 0.06 | 3.54 | -0.16 | 3.27 | -0.27 | 2.64 | -0.90 | 2.61 | 4.64 | 2.03 | 4.52 | 1.91 | 4.67 | 2.06 |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 4.25 | 5.62 | 1.37 | 4.25 | 1.05 | 5.74 | 1.49 | 6.97 | 2.72 | 5.40 | 4.44 | -0.96 | 4.76 | -0.64 | 4.65 | -0.75 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 3.40 | 5.52 | 2.12 | 3.40 | 1.90 | 4.61 | 1.21 | 4.93 | 1.53 | 4.09 | 4.11 | 0.02 | 4.39 | 0.30 | 7.30 | 3.21 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 4.04 | 4.72 | 0.68 | 4.04 | 0.52 | 4.19 | 0.15 | 4.25 | 0.21 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 0.25 | 5.52 | 0.52 | 6.02 | 1.02 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 3.42 | 4.37 | 0.95 | 3.42 | 0.73 | 3.75 | 0.33 | 4.88 | 1.46 | 6.30 | 4.36 | -1.94 | 4.28 | -2.02 | 3.72 | -2.58 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 7.71 | 4.86 | -2.85 | 7.71 | -2.49 | 5.62 | -2.09 | 5.56 | -2.15 | 4.32 | 5.11 | 0.79 | 5.27 | 0.95 | 4.94 | 0.62 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.64 | 3.85 | 0.21 | 3.64 | -0.01 | 3.91 | 0.27 | 3.76 | 0.12 | 2.84 | 3.98 | 1.14 | 4.27 | 1.43 | 3.02 | 0.18 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 3.86 | 5.59 | 1.73 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 5.69 | 1.83 | 6.29 | 2.43 | 5.40 | 2.85 | -2.55 | 2.77 | -2.63 | 1.62 | -3.78 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.90 | 2.58 | -0.32 | 2.90 | -0.25 | 2.45 | -0.45 | 2.37 | -0.53 | 0.82 | 2.09 | 1.27 | 2.16 | 1.34 | 1.12 | 0.30 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 2.90 | 3.61 | 0.71 | 2.90 | 0.42 | 3.79 | 0.89 | 2.66 | -0.24 | 3.27 | 4.57 | 1.30 | 4.42 | 1.15 | 4.30 | 1.03 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 9.50 | 5.83 | -3.67 | 9.50 | -3.33 | 5.05 | -4.45 | 9.74 | 0.24 | |||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.36 | 4.19 | -0.17 | 4.36 | -0.33 | 5.02 | 0.66 | 3.95 | -0.41 | 7.71 | 6.24 | -1.47 | 6.04 | -1.67 | 8.38 | 0.67 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.43 | 5.19 | -1.24 | 6.43 | -1.45 | 4.90 | -1.53 | 7.86 | 1.43 | 4.22 | 5.87 | 1.65 | 5.92 | 1.70 | 4.99 | 0.77 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 3.77 | 4.36 | 0.59 | 3.77 | 0.37 | 4.74 | 0.97 | 4.58 | 0.81 | 7.36 | 8.13 | 0.77 | 7.97 | 0.61 | 6.02 | -1.34 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.14 | 4.45 | 0.31 | 4.14 | 0.05 | 4.46 | 0.32 | 5.44 | 1.30 | 6.10 | 4.71 | -1.39 | 4.77 | -1.33 | 4.09 | -2.01 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 3.53 | 3.44 | -0.09 | 3.53 | -0.30 | 3.50 | -0.03 | 2.91 | -0.62 | 1.54 | 3.25 | 1.71 | 2.98 | 1.44 | 2.00 | 0.46 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.14 | 4.90 | 0.76 | 4.14 | 0.96 | 5.43 | 1.29 | 4.84 | 0.70 | 2.61 | 4.39 | 1.78 | 4.53 | 1.92 | 3.99 | 1.38 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 2.79 | 3.91 | 1.12 | 3.78 | 0.99 | 2.30 | -0.49 | |||||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 4.52 | 4.49 | -0.03 | 4.52 | -0.07 | 4.49 | -0.03 | 4.96 | 0.44 | 0.69 | 4.87 | 4.18 | 4.59 | 3.90 | 2.72 | 2.03 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 4.98 | 4.17 | -0.81 | 4.98 | -0.87 | 4.12 | -0.86 | 5.25 | 0.27 | 24.00 | 7.41 | -16.59 | 8.12 | -15.88 | 20.69 | -3.31 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.98 | 3.25 | 0.27 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 3.07 | 0.09 | 3.04 | 0.06 | 1.38 | 2.17 | 0.79 | 2.23 | 0.85 | 1.79 | 0.41 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 4.82 | 5.04 | 0.22 | 4.82 | -0.12 | 4.65 | -0.17 | 4.82 | 0.00 | 5.06 | 4.78 | -0.28 | 5.36 | 0.30 | 3.21 | -1.85 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 5.27 | 4.94 | -0.33 | 5.27 | -0.26 | 4.51 | -0.76 | 5.33 | 0.06 | 1.50 | 7.52 | 6.02 | 6.03 | 4.53 | 2.69 | 1.19 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.79 | 4.57 | -0.22 | 4.79 | -0.19 | 4.33 | -0.46 | 5.88 | 1.09 | 2.61 | 2.33 | -0.28 | 2.67 | 0.06 | 3.80 | 1.19 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 4.03 | 4.12 | 0.09 | 4.03 | -0.14 | 4.08 | 0.05 | 4.64 | 0.61 | 1.38 | 1.27 | -0.11 | 1.18 | -0.20 | 2.41 | 1.03 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 4.37 | 4.51 | 0.14 | 4.37 | 0.16 | 4.10 | -0.27 | 4.62 | 0.25 | 1.15 | 3.16 | 2.01 | 3.37 | 2.22 | 2.83 | 1.68 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 2.52 | 3.37 | 0.85 | 2.52 | 0.75 | 2.72 | 0.20 | 3.03 | 0.51 | 3.65 | 3.06 | -0.59 | 3.16 | -0.49 | 5.05 | 1.40 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 4.81 | 4.14 | -0.67 | 4.81 | -0.86 | 4.67 | -0.14 | 4.86 | 0.05 | 7.56 | 4.61 | -2.95 | 4.33 | -3.23 | 4.34 | -3.22 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.69 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 4.69 | -0.42 | 4.94 | 0.25 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 1.50 | 6.82 | 5.32 | 6.12 | 4.62 | 4.69 | 3.19 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 4.55 | 4.44 | -0.11 | 4.55 | -0.06 | 4.56 | 0.01 | 4.83 | 0.28 | 1.64 | 3.12 | 1.48 | 3.32 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 0.38 |
There’s little interest in many guys today who were far separated from estimators last year. Maybe Aaron Sanchez, but he misses most of the season.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.005 | 49.8% | 19.1% | 6.3% | 84.1% | 31.4% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.007 | 47.5% | 23.8% | 11.4% | 88.1% | 36.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.266 | -0.036 | 48.6% | 19.2% | 9.8% | 91.6% | 41.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.283 | 0.277 | -0.006 | 43.9% | 18.3% | 13.2% | 85.4% | 34.3% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.306 | 0.008 | 45.2% | 24.0% | 11.7% | 87.0% | 34.6% |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.298 | 0.315 | 0.017 | 27.6% | 29.3% | 8.0% | 79.4% | 37.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.298 | 0.284 | -0.014 | 51.3% | 18.8% | 8.5% | 86.2% | 36.4% |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.190 | -0.091 | 28.8% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 87.1% | 42.9% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.303 | 0.301 | -0.002 | 38.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 79.2% | 29.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.300 | 0.256 | -0.044 | 66.8% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 86.0% | 33.5% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 0.303 | 0.431 | 0.128 | 36.4% | 24.2% | 11.5% | 87.9% | 40.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.283 | 0.286 | 0.003 | 46.9% | 23.2% | 7.9% | 89.1% | 34.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.296 | 0.346 | 0.050 | 44.6% | 27.0% | 8.3% | 86.9% | 38.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.299 | 0.018 | 45.1% | 22.8% | 8.5% | 84.8% | 33.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.299 | -0.007 | 45.7% | 23.4% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 35.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.319 | 0.305 | -0.014 | 45.3% | 21.1% | 9.8% | 79.7% | 35.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.296 | 0.227 | -0.069 | 30.6% | 22.1% | 9.3% | 81.5% | 43.7% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.299 | |||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.308 | 0.322 | 0.014 | 39.4% | 24.8% | 10.2% | 86.7% | 34.7% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.303 | 0.329 | 0.026 | 39.6% | 23.2% | 7.1% | 89.7% | 34.7% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.272 | -0.008 | 50.6% | 18.8% | 12.0% | 82.3% | 35.9% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.328 | 0.039 | 47.3% | 24.8% | 7.5% | 90.6% | 32.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.330 | 0.010 | 38.1% | 22.3% | 15.9% | 83.7% | 38.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.302 | 0.324 | 0.022 | 39.4% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 84.3% | 39.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.326 | 0.032 | 50.4% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 88.4% | 34.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 44.1% | 20.6% | 6.5% | 87.1% | 35.5% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.274 | -0.013 | 46.8% | 19.0% | 11.4% | 84.4% | 32.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.304 | -0.001 | 43.7% | 22.9% | 13.4% | 82.3% | 39.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 58.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 88.0% | 40.7% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.289 | 0.318 | 0.029 | 41.8% | 21.5% | 10.9% | 90.2% | 30.0% |
Chris Sale is pretty dominant, huh? Best Z-O-Swing% and lowest Z-Contact%. No matter where he throws it, they can’t hit it.
Dallas Keuchel is the ground ball version of Max Scherzer. Ground ballers are usually not lower BABIP guys, but he generates such fantastically weak contact on those ground balls and hasn’t had a line drive rate above 19% since 2013.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.276 | 0.023 | 0.263 | 0.008 | 0.265 | 0.065 | 0.2 | 85.6 | 5.0 | 29.9 | 458 |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.361 | 0.008 | 0.332 | -0.025 | -0.4 | 87.1 | 6.6 | 36.1 | 122 | ||
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.326 | -0.017 | 0.327 | -0.003 | 0.368 | -0.045 | -1.0 | 87.1 | 3.9 | 31.6 | 545 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.302 | 0.009 | 0.324 | 0.016 | 0.289 | -0.021 | 0.3 | 85.3 | 4.3 | 27.7 | 368 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.303 | 0.007 | 0.295 | 0.002 | 0.300 | -0.005 | 0.8 | 84 | 4.7 | 23.7 | 253 |
| Caleb Smith | Marlins | 0.373 | -0.004 | 0.361 | -0.040 | -1.5 | 86.3 | 6.9 | 37.9 | 58 | ||
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.020 | 0.272 | 0.014 | 0.286 | 0.011 | -1.4 | 86.4 | 5.2 | 32.8 | 561 |
| Carson Fulmer | White Sox | 0.322 | -0.032 | 0.360 | -0.018 | 0.282 | -0.042 | -0.4 | 86.8 | 9.0 | 29.9 | 67 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.248 | 0.016 | 0.262 | 0.015 | 0.303 | 0.070 | -1.1 | 86.4 | 6.1 | 29.5 | 492 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.279 | -0.002 | 0.292 | 0.017 | 0.287 | 0.009 | 0.1 | 84.5 | 5.1 | 30.3 | 409 |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | 0.348 | 0.094 | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.338 | 0.069 | 0.6 | 88.8 | 3.0 | 35.8 | 67 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.350 | -0.010 | 0.364 | 0.010 | 0.305 | -0.073 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 9.7 | 32.7 | 257 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.361 | 0.017 | 0.365 | -0.013 | 0.325 | -0.003 | 0.3 | 86.8 | 4.3 | 35.0 | 303 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.324 | 0.017 | 0.312 | 0.031 | 0.360 | -0.015 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 6.9 | 30.9 | 376 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.333 | 0.001 | 0.348 | 0.004 | 0.312 | 0.023 | -0.9 | 87.9 | 7.0 | 35.8 | 611 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.272 | 0.026 | 0.284 | 0.019 | 0.229 | 0.079 | 1.4 | 85.5 | 5.5 | 27.5 | 527 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.320 | -0.004 | 0.327 | -0.003 | 0.277 | -0.086 | -1.5 | 87.2 | 8.2 | 34.6 | 413 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | |||||||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.348 | 0.002 | 0.363 | -0.003 | 0.309 | 0.075 | -1.3 | 86.9 | 7.3 | 33.3 | 451 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.342 | 0.004 | 0.345 | 0.023 | 0.336 | -0.001 | -1.4 | 87.8 | 7.0 | 36.2 | 458 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.265 | 0.001 | 0.243 | 0.014 | 0.198 | -0.008 | -0.4 | 86.8 | 5.7 | 32.1 | 495 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.352 | 0.003 | 0.368 | 0.001 | 0.400 | -0.048 | -0.7 | 86.8 | 5.6 | 29.8 | 627 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.328 | 0.029 | 0.328 | 0.055 | 0.325 | -0.036 | -0.5 | 85.8 | 5.7 | 28.0 | 439 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.328 | 0.015 | 0.327 | 0.026 | 0.339 | -0.036 | -0.2 | 87.2 | 5.6 | 32.7 | 480 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.314 | 0.027 | 0.326 | 0.041 | 0.356 | -0.005 | 0.1 | 87.6 | 6.7 | 35.1 | 584 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.327 | 0.007 | 0.321 | 0.017 | 0.314 | 0.018 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 486 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.264 | -0.005 | 0.267 | -0.009 | 0.222 | -0.026 | 0.8 | 86.8 | 6.1 | 31.4 | 442 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.303 | 0.044 | 0.274 | 0.044 | 0.232 | -0.044 | -0.4 | 84.5 | 7.5 | 30.0 | 253 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.326 | 0.017 | 0.345 | 0.038 | 0.324 | -0.005 | -0.4 | 85.4 | 5.3 | 31.4 | 430 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.331 | 0.014 | 0.299 | 0.043 | 0.320 | 0.044 | -0.4 | 87.4 | 7.8 | 38.4 | 255 |
Brent Suter wasn’t just the top contact manager on the board, he seemed to be that by a decent margin, considering his 95+ mph EV.
Sean Manaea may have allowed the worst contact on the board last year. That’s a concern, but less of one if nobody’s on base when it happens.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Patrick Corbin (4) costs at least $9K on either site. This would seem like a bit too enthusiastic, but this really started last season. He dominated two offenses with capable right-handed bats in Arizona (Rockies, Dodgers). He gets another one divisional opponent in a similar category. The Giants should have capable right-handed bats, but haven’t and he gets a major park upgrade.
Luis Severino (1t) faces a Boston offense with just a 15.4 K% vs RHP, but should have the platoon advantage the majority of the time tonight and he has flat out dominated contact over his first two starts. He costs $10.5K on either site, which is probably way too cheap on DraftKings, even in this matchup. I’d flip-flop he and deGrom on FanDuel, where he’s $900 more expensive.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (1t) is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings ($12.4K) and has gotten by without his best stuff so far. He’s probably be bumped up a tier if that cost were a bit lower and I’d certainly consider him a top value as just the fourth highest priced pitcher on FanDuel.
Aaron Nola (6t) isn’t off to the best of starts and seems to be being handled cautiously by his new manager. That’s why he’s not a top tier guy in a decent spot for $8.5K or less in either spot. The guy we expect shows up and gets left alone for 100 pitches, he could blow this price out of the water.
Value Tier Three
Stephen Strasburg (5) allowed a couple of HRs in his last start. It doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about as everything seems in order here, velocity included. He’s probably still a bit under-valued at current prices, but he’s not exactly cheap and the Braves may no longer be push-overs. I’d expect him to be good, but not repeat what Scherzer did last night.
Chris Sale (3) is one of two $10K+ pitchers on both sites (his opponent is the other). He’s not even the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings, but one might suspect that’s because he hasn’t been let loose in his first two starts. If they’re not saving him to throw seven innings, 100+ in this one, then maybe we start to worry. The Yankees should be a terror on LHP this season, but Stanton has been striking out a ton and they were actually better against RHP last year.
Sean Manaea may still have some contact issues against RHBs and hasn’t fully realized his strikeout potential yet, but nearly immaculate control to start the season has sent him into the eighth inning in each of his first two starts. I’m not sure we can expect that to continue, but if it does and he realizes that potential, he may be a star. The matchup is probably not as ideal as early season numbers make it look.
Carlos Martinez (6t) has blow-up potential, but also a ton of upside. This would seem a good spot to continue his dominance of the Brewers from last start at a reasonable cost ($8.7K on FD).
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Aaron Sanchez looks to be bouncing back well from an injury plagued 2017. While I’m skeptical of the sudden jump in his SwStr% through two starts, he’s in a decent spot facing a mostly right-handed lineup which has struggled against RHP so far and he’s pretty cheap.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.