Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 18th
Today challenges us with our first full night slate of the season. We’ll skip words on some pitchers today in order to get more words in on others. Last night, fading the chalk (Lackey 50% owned) in favor of any of the other two highly priced pitchers (around 25-30% owned) paid off. Projected ownership numbers may have swayed you in the right direction last night, as performance related projections were much closer.
We’re now up to date on all stats except for team defense, which I’m confident we’ll see next week.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -8.3 | 3.61 | 4.64 | 51.0% | 0.93 | 3.77 | 5.43 | TEX | 100 | 107 | 96 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 9.1 | 3.66 | 5.56 | 64.6% | 0.96 | 6.04 | 5.08 | MIL | 126 | 127 | 123 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 4.1 | 6.71 | 4.1 | 33.3% | 1.03 | TOR | 67 | 117 | 69 | ||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.4 | 5.46 | 5. | 36.1% | 1.02 | 5.46 | 5.46 | BAL | 134 | 121 | 132 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.8 | 4.5 | 5.13 | 42.8% | 0.98 | 3.79 | 4.48 | STL | 70 | 74 | 69 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 2.3 | 3.89 | 4.67 | 45.5% | 0.89 | 4.86 | 3.36 | COL | 84 | 84 | 45 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | -5.9 | 5.13 | 4.6 | 57.9% | 0.91 | 4.59 | 6.6 | ARI | 62 | 116 | 66 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.9 | 3.93 | 5.5 | 39.8% | 1.06 | 4.07 | 5.95 | SFO | 103 | 86 | 70 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -7.2 | 4.51 | 5.75 | 49.6% | 0.96 | 5 | 3.02 | CHC | 81 | 73 | 83 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.2 | 4.17 | 5.67 | 45.0% | 0.94 | 4.17 | 5.35 | ANA | 48 | 97 | 54 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.4 | 4.04 | 5.98 | 42.7% | 1.04 | 3.93 | 3.65 | MIN | 106 | 102 | 94 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -3.1 | 4.26 | 5.1 | 57.6% | 0.89 | 4.26 | LOS | 132 | 129 | 93 | |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.8 | 3.8 | 5.08 | 47.0% | 1.01 | 3.33 | 2.04 | CHW | 76 | 75 | 75 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.2 | 3.57 | 6.48 | 60.4% | 1.03 | 3.5 | 3.34 | BOS | 88 | 114 | 129 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -1.4 | 3.95 | 5.22 | 43.5% | 0.96 | 4.04 | 4.23 | DET | 123 | 115 | 113 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.8 | 4.71 | 5.01 | 37.2% | 1.06 | 4.81 | 4.8 | KAN | 63 | 81 | 79 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.1 | 2.82 | 6.81 | 34.4% | 1 | 3.75 | 2.79 | ATL | 135 | 105 | 123 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | -5.1 | 4 | 6.11 | 48.7% | 0.96 | 3.89 | 3.48 | TAM | 124 | 101 | 107 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.3 | 4.61 | 5.63 | 39.8% | 1.01 | 4.72 | 4.39 | NYY | 144 | 133 | 142 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -0.9 | 4.21 | 5.55 | 37.4% | 1 | 4.39 | 4.8 | WAS | 116 | 116 | 96 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -5.3 | 3.97 | 6.18 | 53.0% | 0.98 | 3.45 | 2.75 | PIT | 73 | 95 | 92 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | -5.8 | 4.61 | 5.81 | 35.5% | 1.04 | 4.72 | 4.76 | CLE | 90 | 121 | 120 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 6.5 | 4.27 | 5.86 | 41.7% | 0.94 | 4.53 | 4.12 | HOU | 105 | 127 | 142 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -6.1 | 4.45 | 5.79 | 45.0% | 0.91 | 5.19 | 3.89 | SDG | 111 | 93 | 77 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.2 | 4.36 | 5.47 | 0.481 | 1.02 | 4.92 | 4.83 | CIN | 91 | 100 | 98 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 2.8 | 4.02 | 5.91 | 0.403 | 0.89 | 3.83 | 3.66 | SEA | 145 | 94 | 141 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | -4.3 | 4.97 | 5.4 | 0.477 | 0.89 | 5.25 | 5.18 | FLA | 87 | 99 | 89 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 1.9 | 3.24 | 5.96 | 0.401 | 0.93 | 2.8 | 4.19 | OAK | 100 | 112 | 97 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 1.9 | 5.41 | 5.74 | 0.362 | 0.91 | 5.77 | NYM | 72 | 69 | 126 | |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 0.567 | 0.91 | 3.68 | 3.3 | PHI | 76 | 95 | 63 |
Andrew Triggs has not allowed a run through two starts, but hasn’t pitched particularly well either with both four walks and strikeouts each. He had just a 3.3 SwStr% in his first start, but that jumped to 12.2% in his last start, while he has had above average strikeout rates not only through the minors, but in his first major league look last year as well. He has not been hit hard either with a low exit velocity, hard contact rate, and few barrels met so far. He’s in a decent spot in a favorable park against an average offense.
Chad Kuhl was a below average pitcher held afloat by a power suppressing park last year. He’s had two very strange starts so far, generating a 16.5 SwStr%, striking out five Braves, but walking six. In the next start, he didn’t walk a single Boston batter, striking out six on just a 7.6 SwStr%. He’s likely neither one of those guys, but more like last year’s version. He’s not throwing any harder or throwing a different proportion or mix of pitches. None of that really makes him interesting here. What makes him the least bit interesting here is that the Cardinals are not hitting and are really banged up. Last night, they had a lineup with Jose Martinez batting fifth and Greg Garcia batting sixth.
Luis Severino struck out 11 Rays in his last start and now has a 35.4 K% against two strikeout prone offenses despite a SwStr% that projects a strong, but not elite strikeout rate. Strangely, it’s been RHBs that have pounded him thus far (although the Orioles and Rays are probably both stronger from the right-side), while he has dominated LHBs on the ground (53.8 GB%, 15.4 Hard%). This is a bit odd for a fastball/slider guy, but it’s been this way for the early part of his career. He is using a changeup more often this year and it’s enhanced his other pitches so far. The White Sox are predominantly right-handed, possessing nearly no LH power, which you might suspect could make them a difficult opponent for him, but they really aren’t a difficult opponent for any RHP (18.0 K-BB%, 25.1 Hard%), especially if Frazier is out again.
Marcus Stroman is an elite ground ball generator, although not so much a weak contact one. A high strand rate (94%) has his ERA below two through two starts, but we need him to miss more bats to remain DFS relevant. He’s not really in a great spot tonight against a Boston lineup that has struck out just 15.4% of the time against RHP so far.
Max Scherzer had some injury concerns at the start of the season, but those are no longer valid after two starts of looking very much like Max Scherzer. The Atlanta offense has looked good so far, but put their home numbers out of your mind because they consistent of a single series against San Diego pitching so far.
Michael Fulmer achieved results beyond his skill set last year and that seems to be the case again through two starts due to a .233 BABIP and 86.2 LOB%. Nor has he missed bats at a rate suggested by K% (sub-9 SwStr% in both starts). He’s generated fewer ground balls (41.9%) and more hard contact (38.7 Hard%, 8.5% Barrels/PA), but he’s in a pretty massive strikeout spot tonight (Rays 28.1% vs RHP) and that trumps all in Daily Fantasy.
Shelby Miller struck out five of 27 Giants in his last start, which is actually a bit of a triumph against that lineup. While he did not hold his 97 mph velocity from his first start, he was still consistently around 95 mph according to Brooke Baseball. He’s still getting hit too hard for our liking (37.1 Hard%, 91.1 mph aEV), but hasn’t found too many barrels and is at least missing bats at a league average rate so far. He also gets to travel to San Diego to face the Padres.
Wei-Yin Chen pitched with an elbow strain last season. The biggest negative result was a sharp increase in hard contact. Through two starts this year, both against the Mets, the hard contact rate is down again, confirmed by Statcast, despite the two HRs allowed in his most recent start. He has a solid 17.1 K-BB% thus far and has been victimized by a .400 BABIP in addition to those HRs. He faces a powerful offense in a more power friendly Safeco now, but it’s still a very negative overall run environment.
Yu Darvish walked, striking out only nine of his first 51 batters, yet turned the tied with a 10 strikeout performance (two walks) against the Angels of all teams. After a 50% hard contact rate in each of his first two starts, it was just 13.3% in his last one, which just goes to show how unstable some of these early numbers are and how quickly they can turn around. He finds a significant park upgrade tonight in Oakland and although the A’s have been decent offensively to this point, they’ve also been striking out a bit more than usual (23.7% vs RHP).
Zack Wheeler looked formidable in his second start against the same Phiadelphia team he’ll be facing tonight. He was commanding his secondary stuff much better than he had pre-surgery, holding his pre-surgery velocity above 94 mph. It fell apart a little bit the third time through the order, when he issued his only walk and left without allowing a run with two outs in the fifth. He was charged with three when the reliever immediately allowed a grand slam, making his line look much worse than it actually was. The fact that he’s walked just two batters total is the biggest surprise for a guy with a double digit walk rate before this season. Assuming a 37.7% strand rate doesn’t sustain, this is a pitcher whose performance the Mets have to be pleased with thus far. He’s in a pretty strong spot at home against the Phillies tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Mike Leake (.256 – 90.9% – 0) has done a nice job generating weak contact so far this season, seen in both a 15.4 Hard% and 87.2 mph aEV, but let’s not buy into that high strikeout rate yet with just a 6.1 SwStr% that is actually below his career average. He is in a nice spot against a low powered offense, especially if Polanco is out again, but one that does not strike out much.
Jimmy Nelson (.235 – 94.3% – 6.7) hasn’t been bad. He’s struck out 13 of 51 batters faced, but had just a 5.9 SwStr% in his second start. His velocity is up a bit and he’s trying to throw a few more changeups to counter LHBs. The Cubs haven’t gotten on track yet and were dominated by him in his first start. I just can’t get aboard this train yet though.
Brett Anderson (.235 – 92.3% – 0) is not a bad pitcher when healthy, but he is a low upside one. While he has generated some swinging strikes thus far, that’s not really his game. He’s a ground ball machine, who could see a few more strikeouts against the Brewers, but run into trouble against their RH power without the ability to make up for a three run homer with an accumulation of strikeouts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Andriese isn’t terrible and the Tigers will strike out some (24% vs RHP), but they’re a tough assignment for a RHP (11.8 BB%, 45.6 Hard%), who has been allowing too much hard contact himself (45.5%) through two starts, though there’s some discrepancy between his high hard contact rate and more reasonable Statcast numbers.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is more a victim of cost and pitch count than anything else. He’s in a pretty decent spot at home against the Rockies, who have struggled against LHP for years. However, coming off a two year absence, he’s exited after 77 pitches during the fifth inning of each of his first two starts. You’re probably not using him on a one pitcher site and it’s difficult to justify a pitcher at 75-80% of capacity for $8K on DraftKings.
Joe Musgrove has admitted to faulty mechanics (an inability to repeat his delivery) in his first two starts and, sadly, it’s resulted in just four strikeouts to go along with four walks. Sadly, we must exit here and wait to see if he finds himself. There’s no place for him at $7.2K against a low strikeout opponent.
Josh Tomlin has a new release point that’s producing more ground balls, but the fly balls he is allowing are being smoked and he’s still not missing any bats.
Phil Hughes has been good against a bad team (White Sox) and then bad against a good team (Tigers). He faces another good team today.
Jason Hammel has not been barreled yet, but has walked as many as he’s struck out, a poor trait to take into battle against the Giants. Oddly, Kansas City is the most run friendly environment in use tonight.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.0% | Home | 19.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 14.8% | 6.5% | Home | 7.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 11.1% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 15.8% | 21.1% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 10.9% | 6.5% | Home | 8.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.4% | Road | 21.3% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 12.2% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.6% | Home | 16.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 7.1% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 15.0% | 13.4% | Home | 17.9% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 19.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.0% | Home | 22.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 9.5% | Road | 16.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 3.9% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.6% | Home | 23.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.9% | 3.0% | Road | 17.7% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.0% | 10.6% | Road | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.6% | ||
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.0% | Home | 25.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 4.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.0% | 6.2% | Home | 17.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 5.2% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 19.7% | 5.4% | Home | 21.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 17.1% | 8.1% | Road | 18.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 12.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 5.0% | Road | 29.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.5% | Road | 20.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.2% | Road | 17.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.0% | Home | 22.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.1% | 4.8% | Home | 17.4% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 1.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 13.9% | 3.4% | Home | 15.8% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.4% | 5.5% | Road | 17.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.3% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.7% | Road | 13.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.8% | Road | 18.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 4.8% | Road | 18.7% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 2.4% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.1% | 10.1% | Home | 16.3% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.3% | Road | 35.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.4% | 6.3% | Road | 9.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 20.0% | 5.0% | Home | 21.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Road | 19.6% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.6% | 7.4% | LH | 29.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 26.1% | 6.6% | LH | 21.5% | 11.8% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.1% | 6.1% | RH | 20.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 11.8% | RH | 22.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.9% | 8.1% | LH | 24.5% | 5.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 27.8% | 7.5% | RH | 26.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.5% |
| Giants | Road | 21.0% | 8.5% | RH | 18.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.7% | 10.0% | RH | 25.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Road | 22.7% | 8.0% | RH | 21.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Home | 20.8% | 14.6% | RH | 21.4% | 12.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 12.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.4% | 11.8% | RH | 21.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.0% | 5.1% | RH | 24.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 15.3% | 9.3% | RH | 15.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 13.8% | 7.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 12.0% | RH | 24.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Home | 24.4% | 8.3% | RH | 23.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.6% |
| Braves | Home | 15.5% | 7.7% | RH | 20.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Home | 24.4% | 11.8% | RH | 28.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 8.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.7% | 12.0% | RH | 21.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 13.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 28.9% | 10.5% | RH | 20.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.1% | 5.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 7.2% | RH | 15.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Road | 17.3% | 8.6% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| Astros | Home | 17.3% | 8.3% | RH | 16.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 14.9% | 11.1% |
| Padres | Home | 15.9% | 12.4% | RH | 23.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Home | 18.6% | 5.7% | RH | 17.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 17.4% | 8.9% | LH | 13.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.0% | 6.7% | RH | 24.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 26.2% | 8.5% | RH | 23.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.2% |
| Mets | Home | 22.2% | 8.6% | RH | 24.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | RH | 23.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | Home | 27.4% | 3.8% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 2017 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 8.8% | Home | 37.2% | 21.4% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 26.3% | 20.0% | 18.4% | 2017 | 26.3% | 20.0% | 18.4% | Home | 30.4% | 16.7% | 26.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.9% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 2017 | 32.3% | 0.0% | 22.6% | Road | 27.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 0.0% | 22.6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 39.1% | 30.8% | 21.7% | 2017 | 35.7% | 42.9% | 10.7% | Home | 44.4% | 16.7% | 38.8% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 42.9% | 10.7% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 28.2% | 15.5% | 5.7% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Home | 30.0% | 11.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 2017 | 31.4% | 0.0% | 8.5% | Home | 28.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 0.0% | 8.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 2017 | 25.7% | 6.7% | 14.3% | Road | 31.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 6.7% | 14.3% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 2017 | 27.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | Home | 31.8% | 6.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 33.8% | 17.3% | 18.3% | 2017 | 37.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | Road | 35.0% | 17.1% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 2017 | 32.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | Road | L14 Days | 32.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | |||
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.0% | 17.1% | 4.8% | 2017 | 27.6% | 20.0% | 6.9% | Home | 30.4% | 24.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 20.0% | 6.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.9% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 16.7% | 17.4% | Home | 32.8% | 13.2% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 2017 | 45.5% | 18.2% | 24.3% | Home | 34.3% | 9.9% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 18.2% | 24.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.5% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 2017 | 34.4% | 16.7% | 25.0% | Road | 34.8% | 18.2% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2017 | 13.8% | 0.0% | -6.9% | Road | 31.3% | 12.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 0.0% | -6.9% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.9% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2017 | 38.7% | 9.1% | 25.8% | Road | 29.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 9.1% | 25.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 15.4% | 17.2% | Road | 30.1% | 8.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 2017 | 38.1% | 12.5% | 19.0% | Home | 29.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 12.5% | 19.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 2017 | 15.4% | 0.0% | -2.6% | Home | 23.8% | 16.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | -2.6% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 34.7% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 2017 | 50.0% | 10.5% | 38.9% | Home | 40.2% | 16.7% | 28.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 10.5% | 38.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 32.7% | 17.9% | 11.5% | Road | 39.3% | 13.2% | 26.1% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 17.9% | 11.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 2017 | 37.1% | 8.3% | 25.7% | Road | 31.7% | 6.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 8.3% | 25.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 2017 | 35.3% | 23.1% | 14.7% | Road | 29.4% | 8.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 23.1% | 14.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 28.1% | 16.7% | 9.3% | Road | 32.9% | 19.7% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2017 | 21.6% | 11.1% | -5.4% | Home | 24.9% | 10.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.1% | -5.4% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2017 | 38.8% | 6.7% | 26.6% | Road | 20.4% | 9.1% | -9.7% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 6.7% | 26.6% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 2017 | Road | 38.0% | 14.0% | 21.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 23.3% | 12.5% | -3.4% | 2017 | 23.3% | 12.5% | -3.4% | Home | 28.6% | 20.0% | -7.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | -3.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Road | 25.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% | RH | 32.2% | 14.4% | 14.8% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.3% | 22.1% | 12.7% | LH | 38.5% | 20.8% | 19.3% | L7Days | 30.3% | 22.1% | 12.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.0% | 6.0% | 11.4% | LH | 29.5% | 15.0% | 18.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 6.0% | 11.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.4% | 19.4% | 18.3% | RH | 29.4% | 16.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 35.4% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 7.5% | 1.2% | RH | 23.0% | 13.0% | 3.7% | L7Days | 30.1% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | LH | 38.4% | 15.6% | 18.8% | L7Days | 34.2% | 9.0% | 11.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 33.1% | 7.4% | 17.1% | RH | 36.1% | 12.5% | 22.6% | L7Days | 31.4% | 7.3% | 15.3% |
| Giants | Road | 31.9% | 14.5% | 16.2% | RH | 25.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | RH | 26.6% | 5.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.9% | 5.6% |
| Angels | Road | 29.5% | 3.8% | 12.9% | RH | 28.9% | 13.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% |
| Twins | Home | 30.1% | 4.5% | 11.3% | RH | 34.3% | 8.5% | 18.3% | L7Days | 36.1% | 7.5% | 17.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 37.5% | 15.5% | 23.0% | RH | 35.4% | 14.3% | 18.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | RH | 25.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 50.9% | 2.3% | 35.4% | RH | 42.9% | 4.7% | 26.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 4.2% | 15.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.2% | 17.0% | 16.8% | RH | 45.6% | 14.3% | 29.9% | L7Days | 45.1% | 15.1% | 28.1% |
| Royals | Home | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | RH | 29.4% | 15.1% | 5.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 10.2% | 2.5% |
| Braves | Home | 40.4% | 23.1% | 26.6% | RH | 34.0% | 12.6% | 19.2% | L7Days | 38.4% | 23.8% | 26.4% |
| Rays | Home | 30.2% | 15.2% | 7.5% | RH | 31.7% | 17.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.4% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 33.9% | 19.4% | 14.6% | RH | 33.2% | 14.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 31.0% | 17.0% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.4% | 14.3% | 15.9% | RH | 29.8% | 12.7% | 12.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.1% | 7.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.9% | 8.2% | 12.7% | RH | 30.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Road | 39.2% | 10.1% | 26.3% | RH | 37.4% | 14.8% | 23.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 14.3% | 15.5% |
| Astros | Home | 25.9% | 16.7% | 4.5% | RH | 28.3% | 13.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 28.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| Padres | Home | 22.8% | 12.1% | -1.3% | RH | 28.1% | 15.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 26.2% | 15.6% | -1.5% |
| Reds | Home | 27.7% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 25.5% | 9.3% | 2.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.0% | 13.8% | 9.6% | LH | 22.4% | 12.5% | -1.7% | L7Days | 31.3% | 16.1% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 31.2% | 9.1% | 11.3% | RH | 35.4% | 14.5% | 16.5% | L7Days | 33.2% | 17.5% | 11.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.9% | 16.4% | 3.1% | RH | 36.1% | 14.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.4% | 4.9% |
| Mets | Home | 28.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | RH | 29.7% | 10.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 36.5% | 16.9% | 19.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 27.3% | 15.2% | 4.2% | RH | 25.2% | 14.9% | 2.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 14.3% | -2.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 8.5% | 7.7% | 1.10 | 8.5% | 7.7% | 1.10 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 13.3% | 9.4% | 1.41 | 13.3% | 9.4% | 1.41 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | ||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 10.9% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 10.9% | 5.8% | 1.88 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 22.5% | 11.9% | 1.89 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 1.89 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 23.8% | 10.4% | 2.29 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 2.29 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 9.5% | 7.3% | 1.30 | 9.5% | 7.3% | 1.30 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.73 | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.73 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 25.5% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 25.5% | 8.8% | 2.90 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 8.9% | 8.0% | 1.11 | 8.9% | 8.0% | 1.11 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.7% | 4.9% | 3.41 | 16.7% | 4.9% | 3.41 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 17.0% | 4.8% | 3.54 | 17.0% | 4.8% | 3.54 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 35.4% | 10.9% | 3.25 | 35.4% | 10.9% | 3.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 15.5% | 6.4% | 2.42 | 15.5% | 6.4% | 2.42 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.00 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.00 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 19.2% | 6.2% | 3.10 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 3.10 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 33.3% | 15.4% | 2.16 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 2.16 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.00 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.00 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 21.2% | 8.4% | 2.52 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 2.52 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 16.7% | 8.0% | 2.09 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 2.09 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 24.5% | 6.1% | 4.02 | 24.5% | 6.1% | 4.02 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 17.0% | 7.4% | 2.30 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 2.30 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.38 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.38 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 14.0% | 6.6% | 2.12 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 2.12 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.97 | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.97 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 12.2% | 6.7% | 1.82 | 12.2% | 6.7% | 1.82 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 24.4% | 11.4% | 2.14 | 24.4% | 11.4% | 2.14 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | ||||||
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 |
There are a lot of unimpressive swinging strike rates on this board, aside from Scherzer. That’s what you generally see at the back of rotations. Hopefully, we’ll be mixing in some more top end arms with these back end ones to avoid this type of look.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0 | 5.41 | 5.41 | 5.19 | 5.19 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 0 | 5.43 | 5.43 | 5.19 | 5.19 | 3.27 | 3.27 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 0.84 | 5.06 | 4.22 | 4.56 | 3.72 | 3.21 | 2.37 | 5.95 | 5.11 | 0.84 | 5.08 | 4.24 | 4.56 | 3.72 | 3.21 | 2.37 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | ||||||||||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 9.9 | 5.46 | -4.44 | 6.02 | -3.88 | 8.03 | -1.87 | 16.62 | 6.72 | 9.9 | 5.46 | -4.44 | 6.02 | -3.88 | 8.03 | -1.87 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 2.38 | 4.47 | 2.09 | 4.96 | 2.58 | 2.84 | 0.46 | 2.77 | 0.39 | 2.38 | 4.48 | 2.1 | 4.96 | 2.58 | 2.84 | 0.46 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 5.79 | 3.35 | -2.44 | 3.27 | -2.52 | 6.25 | 0.46 | 8.07 | 2.28 | 5.79 | 3.36 | -2.43 | 3.27 | -2.52 | 6.25 | 0.46 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 3.86 | 6.6 | 2.74 | 5.67 | 1.81 | 4.64 | 0.78 | 3.92 | 0.06 | 3.86 | 6.6 | 2.74 | 5.67 | 1.81 | 4.64 | 0.78 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 6.52 | 5.93 | -0.59 | 6.36 | -0.16 | 3.55 | -2.97 | 9.51 | 2.99 | 6.52 | 5.95 | -0.57 | 6.36 | -0.16 | 3.55 | -2.97 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 1.38 | 3.02 | 1.64 | 3.47 | 2.09 | 2.62 | 1.24 | 3.52 | 2.14 | 1.38 | 3.02 | 1.64 | 3.47 | 2.09 | 2.62 | 1.24 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.35 | 5.34 | 0.99 | 5.46 | 1.11 | 4.87 | 0.52 | 9.77 | 5.42 | 4.35 | 5.35 | 1 | 5.46 | 1.11 | 4.87 | 0.52 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 18.47 | 3.63 | -14.84 | 3.97 | -14.5 | 6.56 | -11.91 | 15.42 | -3.05 | 18.47 | 3.65 | -14.82 | 3.97 | -14.5 | 6.56 | -11.91 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 5.91 | 4.24 | -1.67 | 3.88 | -2.03 | 4.05 | -1.86 | 6.06 | 0.15 | 5.91 | 4.26 | -1.65 | 3.88 | -2.03 | 4.05 | -1.86 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.5 | 2.04 | -2.46 | 1.93 | -2.57 | 2.76 | -1.74 | 0.75 | -3.75 | 4.5 | 2.04 | -2.46 | 1.93 | -2.57 | 2.76 | -1.74 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 1.76 | 3.33 | 1.57 | 2.97 | 1.21 | 3.19 | 1.43 | 4.59 | 2.83 | 1.76 | 3.34 | 1.58 | 2.97 | 1.21 | 3.19 | 1.43 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 4.5 | 4.23 | -0.27 | 4.09 | -0.41 | 4.93 | 0.43 | 4.11 | -0.39 | 4.5 | 4.23 | -0.27 | 4.09 | -0.41 | 4.93 | 0.43 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.82 | 4.79 | -0.03 | 4.98 | 0.16 | 5.72 | 0.9 | 11.86 | 7.04 | 4.82 | 4.8 | -0.02 | 4.98 | 0.16 | 5.72 | 0.9 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.13 | 2.78 | 0.65 | 3.45 | 1.32 | 1.43 | -0.7 | 1.55 | -0.58 | 2.13 | 2.79 | 0.66 | 3.45 | 1.32 | 1.43 | -0.7 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.25 | 3.48 | 1.23 | 3.81 | 1.56 | 3.43 | 1.18 | 0.71 | -1.54 | 2.25 | 3.48 | 1.23 | 3.81 | 1.56 | 3.43 | 1.18 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.22 | 4.37 | 0.15 | 4.5 | 0.28 | 4.99 | 0.77 | 7.55 | 3.33 | 4.22 | 4.39 | 0.17 | 4.5 | 0.28 | 4.99 | 0.77 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 6.35 | 4.77 | -1.58 | 5.54 | -0.81 | 5.58 | -0.77 | 5.91 | -0.44 | 6.35 | 4.8 | -1.55 | 5.54 | -0.81 | 5.58 | -0.77 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.6 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.77 | 1.17 | 0.6 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3.86 | 4.74 | 0.88 | 4.93 | 1.07 | 4.56 | 0.7 | 2.51 | -1.35 | 3.86 | 4.76 | 0.9 | 4.93 | 1.07 | 4.56 | 0.7 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.4 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 4.47 | -0.93 | 5.69 | 0.29 | 4.84 | -0.56 | 5.4 | 4.12 | -1.28 | 4.47 | -0.93 | 5.69 | 0.29 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 5.06 | 3.87 | -1.19 | 3.88 | -1.18 | 3.3 | -1.76 | 8.26 | 3.20 | 5.06 | 3.89 | -1.17 | 3.88 | -1.18 | 3.3 | -1.76 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 10.38 | 4.81 | -5.57 | 4.98 | -5.4 | 7.08 | -3.3 | 2.84 | -7.54 | 10.38 | 4.83 | -5.55 | 4.98 | -5.4 | 7.08 | -3.3 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 7 | 3.66 | -3.34 | 3.62 | -3.38 | 4.37 | -2.63 | 7.19 | 0.19 | 7 | 3.66 | -3.34 | 3.62 | -3.38 | 4.37 | -2.63 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.3 | 5.18 | -1.12 | 4.97 | -1.33 | 4.83 | -1.47 | 5.39 | -0.91 | 6.3 | 5.18 | -1.12 | 4.97 | -1.33 | 4.83 | -1.47 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 2.33 | 4.18 | 1.85 | 3.76 | 1.43 | 3.19 | 0.86 | 2.16 | -0.17 | 2.33 | 4.19 | 1.86 | 3.76 | 1.43 | 3.19 | 0.86 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 6.77 | |||||||||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 7.45 | 3.28 | -4.17 | 3.22 | -4.23 | 3.24 | -4.21 | 5.20 | -2.25 | 7.45 | 3.3 | -4.15 | 3.22 | -4.23 | 3.24 | -4.21 |
Wow, three guys with a double digit DRA. And I thought FIP was mean.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.267 | 0.205 | -0.062 | 51.3% | 0.128 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 88.1 | 2.60% | 2.10% | 39 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 0.254 | 0.235 | -0.019 | 47.1% | 0.265 | 11.1% | 84.6% | 87.6 | 8.80% | 6.70% | 34 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.302 | ||||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.254 | 0.265 | 0.011 | 36.1% | 0.083 | 0.0% | 90.7% | 90.5 | 8.30% | 6.50% | 36 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.297 | 0.323 | 0.026 | 32.3% | 0.194 | 0.0% | 87.3% | 89 | 3.40% | 2.00% | 29 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.269 | 0.360 | 0.091 | 48.1% | 0.259 | 14.3% | 87.2% | 84.6 | 12.00% | 7.10% | 25 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 0.260 | 0.400 | 0.14 | 53.3% | 0.267 | 33.3% | 90.5% | 89.6 | 6.70% | 4.80% | 15 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.270 | 0.371 | 0.101 | 28.6% | 0.229 | 11.8% | 89.6% | 88.2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.293 | 0.235 | -0.058 | 47.1% | 0.088 | 0.0% | 81.9% | 88.6 | 3.00% | 2.00% | 33 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.258 | 0.314 | 0.056 | 52.8% | 0.139 | 16.7% | 90.0% | 84.6 | 6.10% | 4.40% | 33 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.339 | 0.520 | 0.181 | 55.6% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 97.6% | 92.4 | 16.00% | 11.10% | 25 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.05 | 57.6% | 0.212 | 14.3% | 95.2% | 85 | 6.50% | 4.30% | 31 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.045 | 41.4% | 0.241 | 20.0% | 84.0% | 91.5 | 14.30% | 8.30% | 28 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 57.8% | 0.289 | 0.0% | 90.4% | 89.1 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 43 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.279 | 0.323 | 0.044 | 36.4% | 0.303 | 9.1% | 84.2% | 88.5 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 32 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.299 | 0.300 | 0.001 | 45.2% | 0.161 | 8.3% | 91.7% | 92.3 | 3.20% | 2.10% | 31 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.296 | 0.276 | -0.02 | 27.6% | 0.172 | 12.5% | 80.9% | 89 | 6.90% | 3.90% | 29 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.295 | 0.233 | -0.062 | 41.9% | 0.226 | 0.0% | 87.9% | 89.4 | 12.90% | 8.50% | 31 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.261 | 0.394 | 0.133 | 42.9% | 0.2 | 7.7% | 94.7% | 89.9 | 11.80% | 7.70% | 34 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.263 | 0.400 | 0.137 | 25.0% | 0.35 | 25.0% | 89.2% | 92.1 | 5.30% | 3.30% | 19 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.318 | 0.256 | -0.062 | 48.7% | 0.205 | 0.0% | 92.4% | 87.2 | 2.60% | 1.90% | 39 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.221 | 0.235 | 0.014 | 25.0% | 0.222 | 10.5% | 91.4% | 91 | 13.90% | 10.60% | 36 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.269 | 0.292 | 0.023 | 26.9% | 0.192 | 14.3% | 87.8% | 90.7 | 11.80% | 8.60% | 51 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.301 | 0.324 | 0.023 | 42.9% | 0.229 | 8.3% | 85.0% | 91.1 | 6.30% | 3.80% | 32 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.341 | 0.387 | 0.046 | 32.4% | 0.294 | 15.4% | 85.3% | 88.1 | 5.90% | 4.70% | 34 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.249 | 0.400 | 0.151 | 34.5% | 0.241 | 8.3% | 83.9% | 86.8 | 3.60% | 2.40% | 28 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.296 | 0.389 | 0.093 | 54.1% | 0.216 | 11.1% | 88.2% | 85.2 | 2.70% | 2.00% | 37 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 38.8% | 0.306 | 0.0% | 84.5% | 87.8 | 4.10% | 2.60% | 49 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.300 | 89.5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 199 | ||||||
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.299 | 0.310 | 0.011 | 56.7% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 86.4% | 86.8 | 3.40% | 2.50% | 29 |
Hopefully, we’re coming to the point next time around for these guys, where these numbers will start to mean at least something.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) is your most expensive pitcher today and also your best. He’s showing no ill effects from a spring hand injury that limited his fastball. Only one other pitcher on the board comes close to his talent level.
Value Tier Two
Yu Darvish (2) is the only pitcher tonight who can come close to Scherzer on a talent level, though he’ll occasionally walk the park and get himself in trouble. Assuming we’re going to see more of the guy we saw last time out, he could challenge for tonight’s top score. Only he and Scherzer are priced above $10K tonight.
Luis Severino (3) is still strangely struggling with RHBs, but does seem intent on developing a sorely needed third pitch. He is off to a nice start though and does have some bat missing talent, which should be more than enough to get him through the White Sox with some a significant amount of upside at a low price, especially on DraftKings, where he might even be a top tier value.
Value Tier Three
Shelby Miller (4t) would be hard pressed not to improve on last season. While it hasn’t been all sweet goodness so far, he’s at least missing bats at an average rate this season. Maybe he can be a league average pitcher. He costs an average amount in one of the top spots on the board in San Diego tonight.
Michael Fulmer (4t) is up to his old tricks again. You could say the underlying performance has been even worse than last year as estimators don’t take into account SwStr% or hard contact, but he’s facing the Rays, which gives him a good amount of upside. As was said above, strikeout potential can make DFS players look past a lot of things.
Zack Wheeler may have looked better than he ever has in a major league outing in his last start before leaving with the bases loaded and seeing all his runners score. If the same guy shows up tonight, there’s a good chance he’s worth more than $7.5-8K at home against the Phillies. The biggest drawback is that he’s thrown just 80 and 85 pitches in his first two starts, but could get through six innings and potentially 90 tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chad Kuhl is probably not in play on FanDuel ($7.2K), but should play as an SP2 on DraftKings against a banged up and struggling Cardinals offense if necessary.
Andrew Triggs is getting some respect on FanDuel ($7.4K), but still isn’t much above the minimum on DraftKings ($5K). While his underlying numbers don’t nearly support his ERA at this point, he’s generated weak contact and in his second start, missed bats at an elite rate. A neutral opponent in a pitcher’s park makes this a favorable matchup.
Marcus Stroman is in a tough spot tonight and, to be honest, one I really don’t like. It lacks the potential for much upside with a pitcher who is erratic with his strikeouts, missing bats at a league average rate at his best, against a good offense that doesn’t strike out. He should keep the ball on the ground though.
Wei-Yin Chen might be an average pitcher at an average cost, facing a decent offense in a great park. There’s no particular reason you should covet his presence in your lineup tonight, but he’s probably not the worst arm you could land on tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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