Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 1st
Never has the last paragraph of this intro been so important, as weather issues and lineup omissions altered original thoughts and that’s before even seeing ownership and umpires. No combination of factors probably led you to believe the Marlins would light up Jake Arrieta, but the insanity continues from last week with Jordan Zimmermann now doing his best Chris Tillman impression. Why pay up for pitching when you can take the same beatings at a fraction of the price, although some of the higher risk plays in tough matchups came through.
Perhaps the calendar turn will stop the craziness. On Tuesday, we’re working through 28 of the 30 pitchers listed on a 14 game main slate.
Column shading issues have been worked on, but it’s still not yet entirely what it’s supposed to be. There are still a few glitches and right now, which some readers pointed out last week, but priorities lie with some awesome new things being added to PlateIQ. I’m still hopeful everything will be corrected this week. Columns are sortable by clicking on the headers, which is probably the more important thing.
Everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where it’s supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. Baseball Prospectus has calculated DRA for 2018, so now we have that too and are complete. Last 30 day stats will finally start differing from season stats at this point. Statcast Home/Away xwOBA (actually all Home/Away) combines last season with this one, which I should probably incorporate into the glossary at some point.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 5.1 | 4.54 | 5.8 | 48.2% | 0.93 | 4.74 | 4.51 | Angels | 84 | 99 | 61 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 3.2 | 1.73 | 5.1 | 61.5% | 0.93 | 1.73 | Padres | 78 | 96 | 88 | |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.9 | 3.97 | 5.0 | 50.9% | 0.92 | 4.16 | 4.78 | Mariners | 93 | 106 | 119 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 2.6 | 4.63 | 5.1 | 41.8% | 1.01 | 4.59 | 4.04 | Nationals | 88 | 103 | 111 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.44 | 5.4 | 37.8% | 1.01 | 4.30 | 5.30 | Reds | 94 | 84 | 134 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | -2 | 3.51 | 6.0 | 45.1% | 1.07 | 3.73 | 3.36 | Tigers | 106 | 93 | 99 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | -3.7 | 2.94 | 6.7 | 39.2% | 1.10 | 2.82 | 3.60 | Royals | 81 | 97 | 96 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.1 | 2.81 | 6.6 | 48.4% | 1.17 | 2.87 | 4.45 | Diamondbacks | 107 | 102 | 126 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | -7.1 | 4.67 | 5.5 | 47.7% | 1.06 | 4.66 | 5.92 | Indians | 93 | 88 | 118 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.46 | 5.7 | 46.6% | 0.92 | 3.96 | 4.04 | Athletics | 113 | 116 | 79 | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.5 | 4.89 | 4.9 | 43.8% | 1.01 | 5.21 | 5.48 | Brewers | 77 | 87 | 48 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | -3.4 | 4.42 | 6.0 | 40.2% | 1.10 | 5.09 | 4.53 | Red Sox | 120 | 131 | 96 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5.2 | 5.14 | 5.4 | 39.4% | 0.92 | 5.42 | 6.62 | Cardinals | 92 | 100 | 62 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.48 | 5.7 | 41.4% | 0.88 | 4.49 | 5.21 | Phillies | 82 | 97 | 98 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 16.9 | 3.73 | 5.7 | 45.2% | 1.01 | 3.44 | 3.73 | Cubs | 102 | 109 | 80 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 1.4 | 4.38 | 5.3 | 41.5% | 0.87 | 4.65 | 4.46 | Astros | 95 | 107 | 120 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | -23.8 | 3.63 | 6.5 | 33.2% | 0.87 | 4.39 | 3.33 | Yankees | 93 | 116 | 95 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.1 | 4.59 | 5.7 | 48.9% | 1.05 | 4.42 | 2.61 | Blue Jays | 86 | 101 | 99 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 5 | 3.90 | 6.1 | 48.7% | 1.01 | 3.97 | 2.10 | Rockies | 72 | 53 | 57 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 4.55 | 5.8 | 31.2% | 1.05 | 5.00 | 4.81 | Twins | 94 | 99 | 111 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | -5.2 | 4.73 | 5.3 | 37.1% | 1.07 | 5.21 | 5.19 | Rays | 113 | 123 | 152 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 4.54 | 5.8 | 46.7% | 1.17 | 4.15 | 4.20 | Dodgers | 104 | 108 | 119 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -16.3 | 2.87 | 6.6 | 34.1% | 1.01 | 3.20 | 2.78 | Pirates | 84 | 97 | 120 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 2.2 | 4.25 | 5.5 | 47.1% | 0.92 | 3.65 | 3.39 | White Sox | 116 | 105 | 105 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 27 | 4.41 | 5.2 | 40.5% | 1.06 | 3.89 | 4.72 | Rangers | 89 | 84 | 92 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 5.7 | 4.39 | 5.3 | 36.6% | 0.93 | 5.23 | 4.83 | Orioles | 91 | 74 | 126 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.1 | 2.95 | 5.7 | 50.7% | 0.92 | 1.50 | 3.06 | Braves | 113 | 107 | 132 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -1.3 | 5.24 | 5.0 | 47.0% | 0.93 | 4.70 | 3.29 | Giants | 107 | 96 | 115 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -0.1 | 5.24 | 5.8 | 40.2% | 0.88 | 5.33 | Marlins | 88 | 71 | 108 |
Chris Archer has allowed at least four runs in five of six starts and a single HR in every start this year. The bat missing skills continue to be fantastic (14.5 SwStr% is a career high), but he’s otherwise getting shelled. A .379 BABIP does not fit with an 18.2 LD%, but his Z-Swing is up significantly, while his O-Swing hasn’t moved and his Z-Contact has moved in the wrong direction. He’s still throwing the same stuff, but the slider (44% thrown), which has been a massively positive pitch in the past, receives a negative grade so far. He’s still missing bats, but he’s also getting hammered. Fortunately, the Tigers don’t have much to hammer him with. They do have just a 97 wRC+ vs RHP, but it’s a very beatable lineup.
Chris Sale struck out four Blue Jays with two HRs allowed during bizarro week. He threw fewer sliders and doubled his change-up usage. The overall picture is still a dominant pitcher with the lowest xwOBA on the board (.225). The Royals haven’t been striking out a lot overall, but 25.6% with just an 8.8 HR/FB against LHP.
Clayton Kershaw has allowed seven runs over his last 12 innings and walked six Marlins last time out, while throwing a season high 112 pitches in his shortest outing of the season (five innings). His velocity is down a mile per hour (92) and he’s throwing more sliders than he ever has (39%) to compensate. There are a few concerning things in the profile, which we’ll look more at below, but he’s still a quality arm by most metrics this season.
Jon Gray allowed 18 runs over 15.2 innings, but has now bookended those three starts with 13 innings of shutout baseball with 18 strikeouts. The Cubs were probably his worst outing of the season at Coors (5 IP – 6 ER – 3 BB – 1 K). It was also his only start with a sub-10 SwStr%, although it’s also only been above 11% once too. We know that he emphasizes strikeouts above grounders on the road (19.5 K-BB% since last season away from Coors), but who knows if he changes that approach with the wind expected to be blasting out at Wrigley again. There’s still a ton of upside here, obviously.
Justin Verlander may find himself in the worst spot among today’s Aces (though Syndergaard’s spot may be just as bad for daily fantasy purposes), but he’s now gone at least seven innings in three of his last four and has struck out at least nine in four of his last five. He is what we like to call…rolling! Though he started doing it before the trade, the Astros emphasize throwing the pitches that miss bats. This Yankee lineup is tough, but how did he fare against them in the post-season? The Yankees mash, but do have a 24 K% vs RHP.
Kyle Gibson continues to be an endless source of frustration. A pitcher with a useful swinging strike rate and high ground ball rate for most of his career, he just never put it all together in a meaningful way. Of course, he has the best start of his career at Yankee Stadium last time out (6 IP – 1 H – 0 ER – 3 BB – 10 K). His swinging strike rate has been either above 15% or below 8% in all five starts this year and his ground ball rate has been 50% or better in three of his last four starts. The biggest issue has been that his hard hit rate has been above 45% in three straight starts, including 62.5% (five of eight) last time out somehow. Statcast is a bit more optimistic on the contact front, as xwOBA thinks he’s essentially a league average pitcher with the highest effective velocity difference on the board. That might work here in an average spot, though the Blue Jays have a board high 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP.
Max Scherzer gives us an opportunity to save some time. You know who he is, just the best damn pitcher on a board full of Aces maybe. Double digit strikeouts in four of six starts and no fewer than seven. He’s facing….well, who cares? I’m not even going to look.
Nick Tropeano has allowed nine runs (three HRs) over his last 10.2 innings in starts against the Red Sox and Astros. There’s some long ball concerns with him, but he can also miss a few bats. He takes the Baltimore lineup out of Baltimore and puts them in a power suppressing park and overall negative run environment and now most of what you’re left with…is strikeouts (25.8 % vs RHP).
Noah Syndergaard pitched into the eighth inning in St Louis last time out and has been above an 11 SwStr% in every start this season. There should even be some opportunity for his BABIP to decrease with some LD rate regression. The rest of his profile is fantastic and more of those may turn into ground balls (even better) considering his 49.4% career rate. He’s behind only Scherzer and Sale by xwOBA. The matchup is a bit of an issue here. It’s not like the Braves never strike out (20.8% vs RHP), but they can battle a pitcher. His last start against them represented a season low (6) for all starts he hasn’t left with a blister issue this year.
Tyson Ross predictably had some trouble in Coors (4 IP – 4 ER) after throwing 127 pitches in Arizona in a no-hit effort, but he still struck out seven of 21 batters. It’s the only start he hasn’t completed six innings in. He’s been quite the redemption story for the Padres so far. Batters are chasing the slider again (28.2% Z-O-Swing%) and things seem to be working out for him with a .277 xwOBA and the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball on the board (2.9%). He has some platoon split issues, but is in the perfect spot for that tonight. The park kills left-handed power (which is not really his issue as much as walks) and the Giants have few competent left-handers to attack him with. They have a 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP that’s very close to his own mark this season (17.1%).
Mike Soroka is a late addition to the board, replacing Sean Newcomb. Unfortunately, that removes the opportunity to look at the Mets against RHP, but they are still expected to be without Cespedes tonight against the much heralded 20 year-old making his major league debut. Number 34 on the Fangraphs Top 100 list this pre-season. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but a high spin slider is complimented with an improving change-up, aiding him to a 21.8 K-BB% in his first 22.2 innings of AAA action this season. It may seem under-whelming on a board full of Aces, but he has a chance to at least be an above average pitcher and completed seven innings (26 batters) in his most recent start.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Kyle Hendricks (.259 – 89.7% – 19.2) may seem to be up to his same old tricks after seven shutout innings against the Brewers last time out, but he’s missing fewer bats (no starts above a 9 SwStr%) and that limits even his marginal upside. Consider that even with a board low 82.2 mph aEV, he has a .344 xwOBA. He’s probably not going to hurt you at a reasonable cost against the Rockies (possibly the best matchup on the board), but the winds add an extra dangerous element in this one.
Matt Boyd (.194 – 85.9% – 7.7) is doing all this while not even realizing his strikeout rate upside with a career high 10.3 SwStr% (essentially league average for 2018 so far). By the numbers, the Rays may be the toughest matchup on the board, but it’s kind of hard to say that a night after Jordan Zimmermann turned back the clock against them. You also wonder how the heck their getting it done with that lineup too.
Chase Anderson (.196 – 95.9% – 15.9) threw seven one run innings at the Cubs last time out. It was the fourth time in six starts he’s gone six innings with two runs or less. The problem is that he struck out six in his first start and hasn’t reached that mark since, while allowing seven HRs on the season. He’s still throwing the elevated fastball that found him some success last year, especially against LHBs, but he’s just not missing as many bats. The things that make his ERA low are completely unsustainable this year, though he’s not allowing as much hard contact as his home run rate would suggest. If it’s not leaving the yard, it’s generally not been hit hard. Cincinnati would not seem a favorable environment for him.
Jarlin Garcia (.121 – 99% – 7.4) has a .121 BABIP without a single pop-up. His 11.3% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. He’s struck out three or less in three of his five outings (all lasting at least four innings). He allowed two runs in four innings with just two strikeouts the last time he faced the Phillies (25 K%, but 16.5 BB% vs LHP).
Jakob Junis (.155 – 96% – 19) is more about the spot, but he did allow five HRs in his last start and eight over his last three. This might just be a thing with him. Lots of sliders, but when they don’t work, he’s in trouble.
Homer Bailey (.234 – 75% – 13)
Matt Koch (.194 – 84.9% – 8.3)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Michael Wacha is coming off his best start of the season, six innings of one run ball with a season high eight strikeouts against the Mets. His swinging strike rate has been above 8.5% in three straight starts, but there’s still some weird hard contact stuff going on with him. More than 40% of his contact has been above a 95 mph EV and Statcast still has his xwOBA above .400. His hard hit rate has been at least 33.3% in four of five starts. He shows these spurts occasionally, but never really turns it into any consistency and rarely goes deep into games (5.5 inning average last two calendar years). The White Sox have been better than they were supposed to be, but you can actually see some talent in that lineup.
Andrew Triggs got through six innings in Texas last time out, immediately after his worst start of the season against the White Sox. He still only faced 23 batters and threw 81 pitches with a high of 96 this year. This is an issue as is a swinging strike rate below 8% in four straight starts, even though he got his velocity back up after dropping in three straight starts. His slider usage is down, so perhaps he’s consciously trading swings and misses for some other unobserved results.
Marco Estrada has had a tough schedule so far, but really hasn’t done enough in them to provide enough optimism for what may be another difficult spot in Minnesota. He doesn’t throw very hard in the first place and this season his effective velocity is a board worst 1.9 mph even lower.
Andrew Suarez struck out seven of 20 Diamondbacks in his major league debut, although allowing two HRs in his 5.1 innings. The 25 year-old second round pick from 2015 has no prospect hype behind him with a 40 Future Value grade slapped on his Fangraphs profile page. He had a league average strikeout rate at the higher levels of the minors last year with ground ball rates around average. There seems to be some misclassification of his pitches on Fangraphs as well. His slider 89 mph appears harder than his fastball 86.4 mph, though a sinker he threw just a few times is recorded at just under 92 mph, which coincides with the few scouting reports I’ve been able to find. He does host the Padres tonight (26.5 K%), so it wouldn’t be shocking if got through this one in relatively decent shape, but there’s just not much to base favorable expectations on.
Jordan Montgomery certainly has some talent, but struggles to find the plate and is in a very dangerous spot in Houston.
Felix Hernandez has only allowed more than three runs in one start, but has also only gone more than six innings once too. Batters aren’t swinging much inside or out of the strike zone, but everything in the zone that’s swung at is being hit hard and he’s not even able to find ground balls anymore.
Chad Kuhl completed six innings for the first time this season in a quality start (6 IP – 3 ER) with eight strikeouts against the Tigers. It was the second time he faced them along with the Rockies and Reds at home and the Marlins in Miami. He’s basically been a little worse than league average against the bottom of the league.
Zach Eflin has a 12 K% and 33.3 Hard% in 127.2 career innings. Not even the Marlins can make that attractive.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 5.9% | 14.6% | 21.0% | Season | 6.0% | 4.5% | 21.4% | 23.7% | Road | 14.4% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 22.9% | L14Days | 8.7% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 25.7% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 35.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | Season | 35.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | Home | 35.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | L14Days | |||||||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | Season | 22.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | 14.0% | 7.5% | L14Days | 17.1% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 16.8% | Season | 20.7% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 15.1% | Road | 20.3% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 21.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 29.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 14.8% | Season | 16.9% | 7.4% | 15.9% | 3.0% | Road | 23.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | L14Days | 10.6% | 6.4% | 18.8% | 5.3% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 27.8% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 19.6% | Season | 24.5% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 22.2% | Road | 26.3% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 23.5% | L14Days | 23.5% | 3.9% | 14.3% | 29.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 31.5% | 5.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% | Season | 32.6% | 5.8% | 11.1% | -3.6% | Home | 33.6% | 5.1% | 15.4% | 9.2% | L14Days | 26.4% | 5.7% | 16.7% | |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 30.4% | 3.8% | 13.1% | 3.8% | Season | 26.9% | 5.8% | 17.2% | 1.9% | Road | 26.7% | 4.2% | 15.3% | -4.2% | L14Days | 20.0% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 2.6% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.4% | Season | 19.1% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 27.6% | Road | 20.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 4.3% | L14Days | 14.3% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 46.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 8.3% | 18.2% | 13.5% | Season | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 9.1% | Home | 22.2% | 7.8% | 17.9% | 7.1% | L14Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | -3.1% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 17.3% | Season | 14.4% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 26.6% | Home | 14.3% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 16.9% | L14Days | 10.2% | 6.1% | 23.5% | 26.9% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 18.3% | Season | 19.7% | 5.5% | 19.0% | 13.0% | Road | 17.0% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 17.3% | L14Days | 16.7% | 5.6% | 27.8% | 19.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 10.4% | 17.0% | 17.4% | Season | 11.0% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 18.3% | Road | 17.5% | 10.2% | 18.3% | 12.7% | L14Days | 13.1% | 16.4% | 5.3% | 18.6% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 12.1% | Season | 20.0% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 20.6% | Home | 20.8% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 14.9% | L14Days | 20.9% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 32.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.2% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | Season | 24.5% | 6.3% | 13.3% | 13.2% | Road | 25.6% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | L14Days | 26.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 8.6% | Season | 20.4% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | Road | 19.4% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 10.5% | L14Days | 23.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% | -3.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 12.7% | Season | 32.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | Home | 25.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 13.5% | L14Days | 29.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 18.0% | Season | 26.1% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 20.0% | Home | 17.4% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 22.1% | L14Days | 37.0% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 45.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 3.3% | Season | 19.5% | 5.7% | 19.2% | -3.3% | Home | 20.4% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 8.8% | L14Days | 24.4% | 16.7% | -3.0% | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 8.5% | Season | 19.7% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 11.8% | Road | 22.0% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 5.3% | L14Days | 20.0% | 4.4% | 19.0% | 14.7% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 12.6% | Season | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% | Home | 17.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 15.5% | L14Days | 20.0% | 13.3% | 14.3% | |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 9.8% | Season | 21.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 21.6% | Home | 18.2% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 18.7% | L14Days | 17.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 17.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 34.0% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | Season | 38.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | Home | 35.0% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | L14Days | 37.3% | 9.8% | 24.0% | |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 10.5% | Season | 19.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 24.7% | Home | 22.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | L14Days | 22.5% | 4.1% | 22.2% | |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 13.8% | Season | 17.6% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 9.6% | Home | 25.2% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 10.5% | L14Days | 14.0% | 5.3% | 21.7% | |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 10.3% | 20.3% | 24.6% | Season | 21.1% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 35.5% | Home | 13.6% | 9.1% | 28.6% | 17.6% | L14Days | 20.0% | 11.1% | 23.1% | 26.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.8% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | Season | 32.9% | 3.6% | 12.5% | -1.1% | Home | 37.8% | 2.1% | 9.5% | 5.9% | L14Days | 24.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 15.5% | Season | 25.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | Road | 25.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | L14Days | 35.4% | 12.5% | 24.0% | |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 12.0% | 5.3% | 16.1% | 16.2% | Season | Road | 9.9% | 5.3% | 12.2% | 18.2% | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 16.1% | RH | 20.2% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 18.8% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% |
| Padres | Road | 29.0% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 10.7% | LH | 26.5% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 18.7% | L7Days | 28.6% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 11.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.5% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 3.3% | RH | 20.4% | 6.2% | 15.5% | 16.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.8% | 14.5% | 32.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 12.5% | RH | 20.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.6% | 20.0% | 15.9% |
| Reds | Home | 24.6% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 17.7% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 16.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 24.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 17.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 26.5% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 20.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 18.0% |
| Royals | Road | 19.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 15.4% | LH | 25.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 16.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 20.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 21.0% | LH | 26.1% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 22.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.0% | 17.8% | 9.9% |
| Indians | Home | 22.3% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 27.2% | RH | 24.3% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 19.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 27.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.9% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 28.0% | RH | 23.7% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 27.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 4.5% | 14.3% | 32.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.4% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | RH | 23.6% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 11.6% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 18.1% | RH | 17.4% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 21.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 16.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 17.9% | RH | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 15.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 18.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.3% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | LH | 25.0% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 14.1% | L7Days | 27.0% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 21.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 4.5% | RH | 21.3% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% |
| Astros | Home | 22.9% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 11.1% | LH | 24.0% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 20.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 25.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 13.6% | RH | 24.0% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 17.7% | L7Days | 31.1% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 26.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.1% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.4% | RH | 23.4% | 10.7% | 16.6% | 14.5% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 12.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.1% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 10.7% | RH | 24.0% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 4.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 19.8% |
| Twins | Home | 23.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 17.4% | RH | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 19.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 21.0% |
| Rays | Road | 22.0% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | LH | 24.0% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 17.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 5.5% | 20.3% | 15.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 17.1% | RH | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 18.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.0% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 9.9% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.8% | 7.0% | 20.5% | 27.3% | RH | 23.2% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 14.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.6% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 23.3% | RH | 25.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 24.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 18.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 29.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 11.3% | RH | 25.8% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 10.0% |
| Braves | Road | 19.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| Mets | Home | 22.1% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 12.1% | LH | 26.0% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 16.6% |
| Giants | Home | 23.1% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 19.1% | RH | 24.0% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 18.2% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 17.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | RH | 25.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 6.0% | 5.3% | 1.13 | 6.0% | 5.3% | 1.13 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 35.0% | 9.6% | 3.65 | 35.0% | 9.6% | 3.65 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 22.8% | 8.2% | 2.78 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 2.78 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 16.9% | 7.1% | 2.38 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.33 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 24.5% | 14.5% | 1.69 | 24.4% | 14.4% | 1.69 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 32.6% | 15.4% | 2.12 | 31.0% | 15.4% | 2.01 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 26.9% | 12.0% | 2.24 | 27.1% | 10.7% | 2.53 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 19.1% | 6.3% | 3.03 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 2.74 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.6% | 7.4% | 2.51 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.54 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 14.4% | 7.2% | 2.00 | 14.9% | 7.3% | 2.04 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.19 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.19 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 11.0% | 9.2% | 1.20 | 13.4% | 10.3% | 1.30 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 2.01 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 24.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 1.98 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 32.4% | 14.0% | 2.31 | 34.4% | 14.5% | 2.37 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 26.1% | 13.1% | 1.99 | 26.1% | 12.3% | 2.12 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.5% | 7.5% | 2.60 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 2.62 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 19.7% | 10.9% | 1.81 | 23.3% | 12.1% | 1.93 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.48 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.48 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 21.2% | 6.3% | 3.37 | 21.2% | 6.3% | 3.37 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 38.0% | 18.2% | 2.09 | 37.3% | 17.5% | 2.13 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 1.91 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 17.6% | 10.1% | 1.74 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 1.74 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 32.9% | 15.2% | 2.16 | 31.0% | 15.0% | 2.07 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.63 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.63 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies |
Chris Archer has more upside in his strikeout rate, at least closer to previous levels well above 25%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 13.11 | 5.32 | -7.79 | 13.11 | -7.71 | 6.88 | -6.23 | 4.02 | -9.09 | 13.11 | 5.34 | -7.77 | 5.4 | -7.71 | 6.88 | -6.23 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 6.75 | 1.72 | -5.03 | 6.75 | -5.02 | 5.45 | -1.30 | 6.75 | 1.73 | -5.02 | 1.73 | -5.02 | 5.45 | -1.30 | ||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 4.70 | 3.97 | -0.73 | 4.70 | -0.65 | 3.76 | -0.94 | 3.54 | -1.16 | 4.70 | 3.97 | -0.73 | 4.05 | -0.65 | 3.76 | -0.94 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 4.55 | 4.14 | -0.41 | 4.55 | -0.45 | 3.88 | -0.67 | 5.15 | 0.60 | 4.55 | 4.15 | -0.40 | 4.1 | -0.45 | 3.88 | -0.67 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 2.86 | 4.73 | 1.87 | 2.86 | 2.19 | 5.71 | 2.85 | 4.17 | 1.31 | 3.45 | 4.85 | 1.40 | 5.16 | 1.71 | 6.34 | 2.89 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 6.61 | 3.73 | -2.88 | 6.61 | -2.81 | 4.48 | -2.13 | 3.28 | -3.33 | 6.75 | 3.82 | -2.93 | 3.93 | -2.82 | 4.62 | -2.13 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.31 | 2.80 | 0.49 | 2.31 | 0.68 | 2.88 | 0.57 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 2.79 | 2.84 | 0.05 | 3.04 | 0.25 | 3.13 | 0.34 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2.84 | 3.20 | 0.36 | 2.84 | 0.04 | 3.41 | 0.57 | 3.10 | 0.26 | 3.09 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 2.78 | -0.31 | 3.29 | 0.20 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 3.93 | 4.43 | 0.50 | 3.93 | 0.34 | 4.51 | 0.58 | 4.87 | 0.94 | 4.73 | 4.07 | -0.66 | 4.1 | -0.63 | 4.77 | 0.04 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.96 | 4.62 | -0.34 | 4.96 | -0.27 | 5.37 | 0.41 | 3.95 | -1.01 | 5.93 | 4.63 | -1.30 | 4.77 | -1.16 | 5.87 | -0.06 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 4.19 | 5.05 | 0.86 | 4.19 | 0.91 | 5.29 | 1.10 | 7.86 | 3.67 | 4.76 | 4.85 | 0.09 | 4.85 | 0.09 | 5.63 | 0.87 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 3.34 | 4.19 | 0.85 | 3.34 | 1.25 | 5.79 | 2.45 | 4.80 | 1.46 | 3.34 | 4.20 | 0.86 | 4.59 | 1.25 | 5.79 | 2.45 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 6.14 | 6.14 | 0.00 | 6.14 | -0.07 | 4.90 | -1.24 | 4.71 | -1.43 | 6.17 | 6.11 | -0.06 | 5.96 | -0.21 | 4.52 | -1.65 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 1.00 | 4.72 | 3.72 | 1.00 | 3.60 | 4.01 | 3.01 | 5.68 | 4.68 | 1.29 | 5.18 | 3.89 | 4.99 | 3.70 | 4.53 | 3.24 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 5.79 | 3.60 | -2.19 | 5.79 | -2.40 | 3.56 | -2.23 | 3.51 | -2.28 | 5.65 | 3.38 | -2.27 | 3.23 | -2.42 | 3.58 | -2.07 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 3.76 | 4.60 | 0.84 | 3.76 | 0.76 | 4.30 | 0.54 | 4.49 | 0.73 | 3.76 | 4.61 | 0.85 | 4.52 | 0.76 | 4.30 | 0.54 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.36 | 2.95 | 1.59 | 1.36 | 2.20 | 2.84 | 1.48 | 3.12 | 1.76 | 1.60 | 2.71 | 1.11 | 3.34 | 1.74 | 2.81 | 1.21 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.33 | 4.15 | 0.82 | 3.33 | 0.69 | 3.12 | -0.21 | 6.19 | 2.86 | 4.29 | 3.78 | -0.51 | 3.67 | -0.62 | 2.96 | -1.33 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.10 | 3.89 | 0.79 | 3.10 | 0.76 | 4.71 | 1.61 | 3.38 | 0.28 | 3.52 | 3.78 | 0.26 | 3.68 | 0.16 | 5.02 | 1.50 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 6.00 | 4.77 | -1.23 | 6.00 | -0.81 | 5.86 | -0.14 | 5.39 | -0.61 | 6.75 | 4.26 | -2.49 | 4.71 | -2.04 | 5.25 | -1.50 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.74 | 5.36 | 2.62 | 2.74 | 2.91 | 4.72 | 1.98 | 5.33 | 2.59 | 2.74 | 5.36 | 2.62 | 5.65 | 2.91 | 4.72 | 1.98 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 1.93 | 3.87 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 3.41 | 1.48 | 1.93 | 3.87 | 1.94 | 3.81 | 1.88 | 3.41 | 1.48 | ||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 1.62 | 2.32 | 0.70 | 1.62 | 1.21 | 1.79 | 0.17 | 2.33 | 0.71 | 1.91 | 2.43 | 0.52 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 2.04 | 0.13 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 3.62 | 4.56 | 0.94 | 3.62 | 0.45 | 3.89 | 0.27 | 5.16 | 1.54 | 2.78 | 4.22 | 1.44 | 3.56 | 0.78 | 2.67 | -0.11 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 2.56 | 4.49 | 1.93 | 2.56 | 1.81 | 3.07 | 0.51 | 3.79 | 1.23 | 2.56 | 4.49 | 1.93 | 4.37 | 1.81 | 3.07 | 0.51 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 4.67 | 4.50 | -0.17 | 4.67 | -0.12 | 5.10 | 0.43 | 4.67 | 4.51 | -0.16 | 4.55 | -0.12 | 5.10 | 0.43 | ||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.86 | 2.40 | -0.46 | 2.86 | -0.73 | 2.19 | -0.67 | 3.85 | 0.99 | 2.20 | 2.62 | 0.42 | 2.34 | 0.14 | 1.77 | -0.43 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.64 | 3.61 | -0.03 | 3.64 | -0.32 | 3.09 | -0.55 | 6.24 | 2.60 | 3.64 | 3.61 | -0.03 | 3.32 | -0.32 | 3.09 | -0.55 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 6.52 |
Chris Archer has a .376 BABIP and 62.8 LOB%.
Justin Verlander has a .198 BABIP, 94.5 LOB% and 7.7 HR/FB. The home run rate is around his career rate, but the other two marks are nowhere near sustainable.
Kyle Gibson has a 4.2 HR/FB. The .275 BABIP may be a bit low too, more than 30 points below his career average. Let’s take a look below.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.322 | 0.482 | 0.160 | 46.6% | 29.3% | 7.1% | 91.9% | 40.2% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.288 | 0.182 | -0.106 | 61.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 85.3% | 47.3% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.289 | 0.308 | 0.019 | 53.0% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 93.9% | 28.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.291 | 0.373 | 0.082 | 34.5% | 31.0% | 10.3% | 86.7% | 42.7% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.273 | 0.196 | -0.077 | 41.2% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 89.5% | 41.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.304 | 0.376 | 0.072 | 45.5% | 18.2% | 11.1% | 85.6% | 43.9% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.275 | -0.013 | 33.7% | 22.9% | 22.2% | 79.4% | 32.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.303 | 0.290 | -0.013 | 46.1% | 25.5% | 13.8% | 86.2% | 42.6% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.321 | 0.339 | 0.018 | 46.6% | 29.3% | 7.1% | 91.3% | 39.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.300 | 0.258 | -0.042 | 38.1% | 24.7% | 8.3% | 94.3% | 29.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.293 | 0.234 | -0.059 | 40.9% | 17.3% | 6.5% | 90.9% | 38.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.292 | 0.155 | -0.137 | 40.2% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 87.3% | 32.8% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 38.6% | 22.8% | 10.3% | 86.0% | 44.3% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.291 | 0.121 | -0.170 | 47.1% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 84.9% | 33.4% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.298 | 0.372 | 0.074 | 40.6% | 28.1% | 10.0% | 85.3% | 40.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.284 | 0.293 | 0.009 | 46.2% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 84.2% | 32.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.265 | 0.198 | -0.067 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 76.8% | 31.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.309 | 0.275 | -0.034 | 47.1% | 18.6% | 16.7% | 86.8% | 34.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.274 | 0.259 | -0.015 | 51.7% | 19.1% | 7.7% | 90.2% | 33.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 28.2% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 83.9% | 46.2% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.194 | -0.091 | 30.4% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 85.3% | 34.5% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.194 | -0.083 | 56.8% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 91.7% | 33.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.274 | 0.263 | -0.011 | 38.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 72.3% | 35.1% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.294 | 0.291 | -0.003 | 41.8% | 32.9% | 0.0% | 80.6% | 39.7% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.257 | 0.280 | 0.023 | 47.8% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 90.5% | 40.1% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.294 | 0.311 | 0.017 | 35.4% | 25.0% | 10.5% | 85.3% | 42.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 45.5% | 27.3% | 12.5% | 81.5% | 30.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.314 | 0.291 | -0.023 | 47.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 87.0% | 28.2% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.293 |
Chris Archer doesn’t profile for that high a BABIP. Nobody does, but while he is allowing a lot of loud contact, much of it is leaving the yard. He’s getting hammered in the zone (Z-O-Swing%) more often than in the past, but he’s not going to remain closer to .400 than .300 all season.
Clayton Kershaw has a career worst 42.6 Z-O-Swing%. More than chases are down (31%), batters are swinging at strikes (73.9%) and hitting them more often (86.2%). Let’s hope this isn’t entirely due to the decline of Kershaw, but it might be the most concerning thing that’s immediately obvious.
Justin Verlander requires more words here. Nobody profiles for a sub-.200 BABIP, but he’s been below .280 each of the last three seasons and is an extreme fly ball pitcher, who profiles extremely well. He’s got the second lowest Z-Contact% in the league. Only one guy on this board annually profiles better and he has no match in this department. (Hint: it’s Max Scherzer.)
Kyle Gibson has a career low line drive rate and ground ball rate, though the latter has been a bit higher lately. He also has four infield flies and has more than 14 just once in his career. He’s been managing contact well enough, with his defense over 30 points higher, in fact right where his career rate sits, it’s not a given that this will sustain.
Nick Tropeano has the highest aEV on the board, but again, consider who he’s faced (Boston, Houston) and it’s been just three starts.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.535 | 0.043 | 0.370 | -0.008 | 0.535 | 0.043 | -1.8 | 94.2 | 13.9 | 61.1 | 36 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | |||||||||||
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.364 | -0.039 | 0.305 | 0.004 | 0.364 | -0.039 | -0.9 | 89.8 | 9.6 | 40.4 | 52 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.407 | -0.041 | 0.359 | 0.002 | 0.407 | -0.041 | -0.6 | 89.3 | 6.9 | 37.5 | 72 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.325 | -0.013 | 0.266 | -0.003 | 0.325 | -0.013 | -1.7 | 85.8 | 7.8 | 26.0 | 77 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.355 | 0.004 | 0.320 | 0.016 | 0.355 | 0.004 | -1.2 | 90 | 10.0 | 37.5 | 80 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.225 | 0.024 | 0.263 | 0.009 | 0.225 | 0.024 | -1.1 | 85.9 | 4.5 | 25.8 | 66 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.275 | -0.008 | 0.251 | 0.007 | 0.275 | -0.008 | -0.2 | 84.2 | 6.5 | 30.4 | 92 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.375 | -0.015 | 0.332 | -0.004 | 0.375 | -0.015 | -0.2 | 87.2 | 9.3 | 41.9 | 43 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.396 | -0.073 | 0.345 | -0.045 | 0.396 | -0.073 | -0.3 | 89.3 | 11.3 | 37.5 | 80 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.402 | -0.114 | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.402 | -0.114 | -0.3 | 90 | 10.9 | 47.8 | 92 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.341 | -0.111 | 0.337 | -0.038 | 0.341 | -0.111 | -1.0 | 87.7 | 10.8 | 29.7 | 74 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.408 | -0.065 | 0.375 | -0.008 | 0.408 | -0.065 | 0.5 | 88.8 | 9.5 | 38.1 | 84 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.361 | -0.179 | 0.276 | -0.054 | 0.361 | -0.179 | -0.8 | 88.6 | 11.3 | 35.8 | 53 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.348 | 0.027 | 0.320 | 0.002 | 0.348 | 0.027 | 0.4 | 88 | 6.7 | 37.8 | 90 |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.309 | -0.006 | 0.306 | 0.010 | 0.309 | -0.006 | -0.9 | 87.4 | 3.1 | 30.8 | 65 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.282 | -0.066 | 0.315 | -0.065 | 0.282 | -0.066 | -1.2 | 87.9 | 9.5 | 32.4 | 74 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.336 | -0.043 | 0.368 | 0.002 | 0.336 | -0.043 | 0.6 | 87.8 | 4.8 | 40.3 | 62 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.344 | -0.015 | 0.317 | -0.005 | 0.344 | -0.015 | -0.9 | 82.2 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 71 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.354 | 0.003 | 0.303 | 0.035 | 0.354 | 0.003 | -1.9 | 89 | 13.2 | 38.2 | 68 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.291 | -0.090 | 0.326 | -0.017 | 0.291 | -0.090 | -1.2 | 87.7 | 7.3 | 25.5 | 55 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.340 | -0.188 | 0.297 | -0.104 | 0.340 | -0.188 | -0.5 | ||||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.255 | -0.041 | 0.237 | 0.010 | 0.255 | -0.041 | -0.8 | 88 | 8.7 | 39.1 | 69 |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.401 | -0.080 | 0.310 | -0.012 | 0.401 | -0.080 | 0.4 | 87.6 | 9.1 | 43.9 | 66 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.296 | -0.043 | 0.348 | -0.020 | 0.296 | -0.043 | 0.4 | 85.2 | 8.1 | 27.0 | 74 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.401 | -0.045 | 0.464 | -0.006 | 0.401 | -0.045 | -1.7 | 93 | 8.6 | 54.3 | 35 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.261 | 0.013 | 0.235 | 0.010 | 0.261 | 0.013 | -0.3 | 86.6 | 6.0 | 28.4 | 67 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.277 | -0.027 | 0.330 | 0.002 | 0.277 | -0.027 | -1.3 | 86.3 | 2.9 | 35.7 | 70 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.344 | 0.008 |
Clayton Kershaw is still generating some of the weakest contact on the board and has the fourth lowest xwOBA.
You have all the Aces below a .300 xwOBA and then you see the guy with some previous success (Tyson Ross), but Matt Boyd? That’s a surprise and I’m not sure I entirely understand it.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Your paying up for pitching tonight. The sheer depth of Aces on this board makes it unlikely that one or two of them are going to saturate the market so much that it’s worth fading them (though if that were the case, I’d expect it to be Scherzer, and if not, he’s the guy). The good news is that there are some mid-range pitchers to pair them with. It’s going to take guts to drop down there on FanDuel though.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1t) is the highest priced pitcher on the board, but also the one without really any blemishes this year (there was that one questionable on in Atlanta). He’s not in the highest strikeout upside spot (I eventually had to look for this part), but he makes every spot a high strikeout upside one.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1t) had a slip up last week, but so did nearly everyone. There will be some interesting choices on a board with a number of perennial Cy Young contenders, but he certainly still merits a major part in that discussion. The park is the most unfavorable thing about the matchup with the Royals.
Justin Verlander (3) is only the fourth most expensive arm on today’s board and I believe he’s re-earned equal footing with most of those guys, if not just a smidgen below, which cost accounts for. There is some danger in the matchup, but he didn’t seem to mind it last October.
Value Tier Three
Noah Syndergaard (4t) is not in the highest upside spot, but is the lowest priced of the five Aces. He’s starting to be pushed a bit more with three consecutive starts above 100 pitches and should be fine here. I’d seriously consider bumping him up if ownership rates have him far behind the three ahead of him.
Tyson Ross has been good, almost as good as he was, and he doesn’t cost much in a favorable spot. For some reason, he’s the guy I’ve struggled with placement most here. I had him below Kershaw for a few minutes on a per dollar basis.
Clayton Kershaw (4t) is coming off a mediocre start followed by just a terrible one. There are some concerns, but we’ve been here before and he’s made people look silly for worrying. That could happen again and there’s a part of you that just wants to jump all over him when he’s not the highest priced pitcher on the board, but I feel like I’m doing the right thing, dropping him to the third tier in Arizona (26.1 K%), although it’s tough to really know at this point.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Nick Tropeano is unlikely to be someone many people are on (I could be wrong) considering his last two starts, but they were against much more difficult lineups. He has some strikeout upside and should be able to find it here at a low price, which may make him a great compliment to one of your higher priced guys on DraftKings.
Jon Gray is in a very dangerous spot at Wrigley, but Coors generally keeps his price reasonable on the road. All of his problems haven’t occurred at Coors this year, but you’re not often going to find this kind of upside for less than $8K.
Chris Archer hasn’t been good, but even with the negative qualities there should still be some regression in his BABIP and he’s missing bats at a career best rate. He’s also in a decent spot against a lineup that has out-hit their projections so far. A last negative would be that Detroit has turned into quite the hitter’s park in recent years. The upside may be worth a shot at around $9K, but I’m not placing a lot of faith in him.
Kyle Gibson is probably going to frustratingly turn back into what he was, but I fall for him at a low price every time he shows any upside and that he certainly did in his last start, but he also struck out seven in the one preceding it as well.
Mike Soroka is a late addition. He’s only available on DraftKings, where he costs the minimum. While the Braves may be cautious with the 20 year-old in his first start, there is some talent (#34 on Fangraphs Top 100) and that may be enough motivation to pair him with a stud tonight, opening up the rest of the lineup a little more.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.