Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 22nd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-05-23 01:53:38

Ironic how after furiously debating the merits and flaws of what seemed like a tough board on Monday, most of the top guys ended up in the 20 point range, except for the nine strikeout shutout Miles Mikolas (18 K%) threw against the Royals (16.6 K% vs RHP). That was entirely expected due to the fact that there was no way anyone should have figured him for so many strikeouts in that spot. It seems something very unlikely to happen happens each day in baseball because there are so many chances to.

We’ve got a few big deals on the mound on Tuesday night and not a bad board behind them. In fact, it may end up being difficult to find many pitchers to pick on, which means what follows could get a bit lengthy.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Brandon McCarthy is coming off his best start of the season, completely shutting down the Cubs (6 IP –1 ER) and setting a season high with eight strikeouts (14.1 SwStr%). His velocity spiked up to 94 mph. It was his second such spike this season, after spending his first two outings around 92 mph, he jumped up to 93 mph for his next five. He doubled up on his cutter usage against the Cubs (54% was his highest usage ever in a game). I’m a little bit interested if he sustains the velocity spike and approach and why wouldn’t he against the Phillies (26.7 K% vs RHP). He’s a smart guy, so why wouldn’t he?

Brock Stewart has struck out five of 26 batters in relief for the Dodgers this year and has not faced more than 14 batters in an outing at any level over the last month. An elite bat misser in the minors, that hasn’t quite carried over to his major league work (19.7 K%), perhaps due to an 11.4 BB%. His 10.4 SwStr% through 68 career innings suggests there’s some upside here. Absolutely most importantly tonight, he has the top park adjusted matchup on the board against the Rockies (63 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) for however long he lasts.

Caleb Smith has completed six innings fewer times (twice) than he’s failed to go five innings (three times) in a start this season. He’s done a fine job of missing bats, even if it’s been more of a league average rate over the last month, but the 30+ K% is unlikely to be sustainable. While he does have an 18.8 K-BB%, he’s failed to strike out more than he’s walked in three starts and the Mets do have a 10% walk rate against southpaws, but they also have a 69 wRC+, split high tied with the Phillies 26.7 K%, and split low 6.0 HR/FB against them. This should probably not be expected to improve much with Frazier, Cespedes and Largares disabled. The latter may not sound like much, but forces the Mets to align an entirely left-handed hitting outfield. Devin Mesoraco may be the most dangerous RHB in this lineup. Few people realize that Wilmer Flores has actually been better against RHP over the last year.

Chris Sale throws a slider or change nearly half the time, which may be the most important stat to know against the Rays, who are extremely proficient against fastballs and curveballs (which he does not throw). The other important thing to know is that he’s Chris Bleeping Sale: at least seven innings in four of last six starts, nine or more Ks in three straight, 16.2 SwStr% (best), 79.6 Z-Contact% (best), 29.9 Z-O-Swing%, .254 xwOBA (best), 85.9 mph aEV (second).

Gerrit Cole is just below Sale for the top SwStr% on the board, but does own the top one (16.5%) over the last month. He also trails Sale by a single point for the top xwOBA on the board. He has failed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first two times this season in his last two starts, but has remained consistent in his pitch counts. The Giants have not been pushovers this year (23.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP is a surprise), but may experience one of the few run scoring environment downgrades possible from San Francisco in Houston tonight and add an 18.3 K-BB% vs RHP.

Jameson Taillon is league average by estimators, a bit better by contact management. He’s failed to exceed six innings or five strikeouts in seven starts, but he’ll probably be fine against the Reds (30.8 K% last seven days).

Jeremy Hellickson isn’t throwing any harder and in fact, his 10.0 SwStr% is only a few points from his career 9.8% career mark. Why is his 21.5 K% a career high (40 IP min.)? Two potential reasons are a career low 4.1 BB% and doubling his curveball usage (24.4%). It’s been a break even pitch for his career by Fangraphs’ weighted metrics, but has also been his best pitch this year by those metrics. We can’t buy into all of it (.239 BABIP), but Statcast believes in the contact management (86.2 mph aEV and 28.9% 95+ mph EV are both top three marks on tonight’s board) and he’s facing the Padres (26.4 K% vs RHP).

Kevin Gausman was thrashed for only the second time this year and the first time since his first sart against the Red Sox last time out and all that really did was bring his ERA in line with estimators. In fact, his velocity has crept back up over his last few starts and he’s failed to strike out at least six in just two of his last seven starts. He’s throwing more first pitch strikes recently. That in addition to the velocity increase should also lead to an increase in O-Swing%, which should give him a chance in reasonable matchups, which is what he faces tonight when changing his Sox.

Luke Weaver seems back on track with a 12 innings of one run ball with just two walks and 10 strikeouts over his last two starts. The issue here is his league average strikeout rate against up against Kansas City’s 17.0 K% against RHP, but it was 16.6% yesterday before running into “(player-popup #miles-mikolas)Miles Mikolas”:/players/miles-mikolas-13737’s 18 K%. The rest of it is clearly in his favor. His 85.5 mph aEV is best on the board, the park is a negative run environment, and the Royals (minus a DH) have both a walk and home run rate per fly ball below eight.

Matt Boyd has failed to complete six innings just once this season. He’s missing bats at a career high rate with career highs in K (21.1%), SwStr (11%) and K-BB (14.4%) rates. His .290 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board, even if his 4.6 HR/FB is not sustainable. His 25.5% 95+ mph EV is best on the board. The matchup is marginal by wRC+, but the Twins have a 25.7 K%, 8.0 HR/FB and 8.8 Hard-Soft% against LHP. Only really Brian Dozier punishes LHP in their lineup.

Trevor Bauer threw eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Detroit last time out, immediately following his worst outing of the season against the Royals (4.2 IP – 4 ER – 2 BB – 3K). His 27.2 K% this season is just outside the top five on tonight’s board, but improvements in contact management this season have driven him to a .290 xwOBA that ties for third. He’s gotten at least two outs in the seventh in six of his nine starts this year. The Cubs at Wrigley, while eons behind the Yankees, might actually be the second worst park adjusted matchup on the board (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP). A peak at the early forecast doesn’t even have Wrigley wind conditions in the mentions though.

Trevor Cahill followed up a 12 strikeout performance with just one his last time out. A few things to acknowledge are that he was facing the Red Sox with an 11 day gap in between starts due to a short DL stint and his velocity was fine. He’s had some difficult spots in Houston and Texas as well as Boston this year. In two home starts against the White Sox and Orioles: 13 IP – 0 R – 20 K). His overall 14.7 SwStr% is third best on the board and has been above 9% in every start, including the Red Sox. The Seattle offense has just a 20 K% vs RHP, but has seen some slippage in the results since losing Cano.

Zack Wheeler has ditched his sinker and is throwing his four-seamer 60% of the time this season. He’s attempting to add a splitter that neither Brooks nor Fangraphs is picking up on, but Statcast has it at 11.3% of the time with results being a 26.8% whiff rate that’s highest of any pitch that Statcast has him throwing more than 25 times this year. It also has a .438 xwOBA, which is the highest of all his pitches as well. It’s a work in progress that’s led to a ton of inconsistency from him this season. He has no starts between four and six strikeouts this season with three below and four above. The good news is that thee of the four above have come in his last four starts. The bad news is that he’s completed six innings with fewer than four runs just once in his last five starts. He somehow combines one of the lowest aEVs (86.3 mph) with one of the highest rates of barrels per batted ball (10.3%) on the board. He’s got one of the top park adjusted matchups on the board against the Marlins, a team against which he has his best start this season (7 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 7 K – 24 BF) in his first outing.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.

League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)

Jhoulys Chacin (.259 – 73.4% – 8.8) is a bit tougher than originally thought. The BABIP is low, but both his team and career rates are below .285 as well, so despite not much support for it, it may be close to sustainable. He’s allowed three unearned runs (12.5%) and the home run rate is a bit low, but not outrageous. The other thing is that he’s generated a double digit SwStr% in three straight starts now too, while the Diamondbacks have a 26.2 K% vs RHP. This was supposed to be one of my few easy skips today and now I’m still rethinking his placement against a team without too many left-handed threats (he has substantial platoon splits) and high strikeout upside. I still don’t like him for much more than $6K though.

Chad Bettis (.256 – 80.2% – 11.8) has not struck out more than five in a start, but has completed seven innings in four of his last seven starts while completing at least five innings in every single start this year. He’s not going to miss bats and there’s something to be said for length, but neither Statcast (.355 xwOBA) nor ERA estimators believe in the legitimacy of his 3.27 ERA. There’s absolutely nothing to support the low BABIP and it’s not a situation like some other Colorado pitchers who are much better outside Coors. When he regresses, his workload will likely decrease as well. He is less than $7K in a spot that’s not terrible due to the extremely negative run environment, which gets him close to being at least useful tonight, but there’s much more risk than upside.

Tyler Chatwood (.266 – 77.4% – 3.0) gets no complaints about the BABIP from me. He’s a weak ground ball generator with a great infield defense behind him. He also has a league average strikeout rate. The problem is that his walk rate is nearly a league average strikeout rate too (18.3%). If you’re looking for a nearly immaculate HR rate to save you in Wrigley, you’re asking for trouble and this Cleveland offense has shown power (14.6 HR/FB vs RHP) even despite the lack of overall results this season. Losing a DH hurts, but shouldn’t kill them here.

Matt Koch (.223 – 83.8 – 20.9) allowed nearly half his run total for the season (18) in his last start (8). His 15.7% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board.

Cole Hamels (.271 – 81.1% – 18.4) has four unearned runs (16.7%) on his ledger and while he’s allowed just two of his nine HRs over his last five starts, he’s also only exceeded five strikeouts once in that span. Oh yeah, also the Yankees (11.4 BB%, 17.4 HR/FB vs LHP – 17.3 K%, 24.6 HR/FB last seven days). This dwarfs the difficulty of any other matchup on the board. It’s essentially the equivalent of facing an above average offense at Coors.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

J.A. Happ threw seven shutout innings while tying a season high 10 strikeouts in his last outing against the Mets. This matchup would be the opposite of that. The Angels are predominantly right-handed (9.5 K-BB% vs LHP) and are a top 10 offense against fastballs as well, which he throws some version of over 70% of the time this year.

Vince Velasquez has an ERA above four, but has been pretty good by most other measurements (19.2 K-BB%, .290 xwOBA). A couple of issues knock him just barely off the wish list tonight. First, he’s only exceeded seven strikeouts in one start. Sure, he can do it, but that’s probably not the expectation. Second, the Braves are not a terrible matchup for him, but it’s not a high strikeout upside one. They’re 10.7 K-BB% vs RHP is one of the lowest splits on the board. I’d like him for around $7K or less.

Garrett Richards has four or fewer strikeouts and a single digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. Although it does not show in his “Last 30 Days” numbers yet, he’s upped his sinker usage over the last month, leading to fewer swings and misses. The more interesting thing is that he remains a quality contact manager (55.4 GB%) with a great batted ball profile, supporting his .261 BABIP, until you get to his 90 mph aEV. Perhaps that’s what the traditionally strong contact manager is attempting to correct and is willing to sacrifice strikeouts for. That and his walk rate has decreased as well (just two over his last three starts after 19 in his first six ). The Blue Jays have a 10.1 BB%, 14.3 HR/FB, and 17.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.

Andrew Suarez has non-FIP estimators that suggest much ERA improvement, but don’t take into account the highest K/SwStr on the board (3.38). His 7.4 SwStr% does not support anything close to his current strikeout rate. A correction there would probably push his estimators up towards his actual ERA, even without sustaining his 22.2 HR/FB, a difficult thing to do in San Francisco. He’s in Houston tonight, which may be an overall upgrade in terms of run scoring and while the Astros have been good against RHP, they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last season.

Mike Leake has six starts of three or more runs in six or fewer innings in his last seven outings. His xwOBA, aEV, and 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board. All that said, I’m still not entirely sure that he’s worse than $4.4K on DraftKings.

James Shields has gone at least six innings in five straight starts, allowing three runs or less in three of them. He has three starts of six or more innings with just one run allowed. It happens and it’s not even a bad spot (Orioles 25.1 K% vs RHP, 29.5 K% last seven days), but there’s really nothing in his numbers that support his usage tonight. You could try for $5.3K on DraftKings, but there’s a decent chance it might end in regret.

Domingo German has a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and the 25 year-old is not even the top prospect named Domingo in the system, though some of that is due to injuries and caution over the last few years. None the less, he received the magic Yankee dust and threw six no-hit innings in his first start, only to have it wear off in his second (5 IP – 6 ER – 3 BB – 1 K). While the matchup is fine against a Texas offense with a 78 wRC+ and 25.7 K% against RHP even in a tremendously positive run scoring environment, this is a pitcher who costs more than $6.5K and has been coddled since returning from injury last season, not exceeding 80 pitches in any start last year with less than 85 in each of his first two this year. He was pulled from a no-hit effort with just 84 pitches.

Jason Hammel has the highest xwOBA on the board over the last 30 days (.448).

Jake Faria faces the Red Sox.

Matt Harvey

Lance Lynn has a 16.1 BB% and has pitched past the fifth inning just twice this season.

Eric Lauer has gone five or fewer innings with three or more runs in four of his five starts.

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Peripherals (Opponent)

K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Not much of interest here today that hasn’t been noted in other spots, except that I didn’t even notice that Tyler Chatwood can’t support his current strikeout rate, which could really mean disaster for him.

J.A. Happ looks like he could be on the edge of sustainability too.

ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Brandon McCarthy has a .361 BABIP and 21.2 HR/FB.

Gerrit Cole has generated 11 infield flies already. The other thing to note is that his .263 BABIP is actually five points higher than what the Astros have allowed this season and they were projected to be the worst defense in the league…SHIFTING!

Jeremy Hellickson has a .239 BABIP, 79.4 LOB% and 7.7 HR/FB. All of these numbers are due for at least some regression. However, even his estimators are a run better than his career rates.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Brandon McCarthy has an ugly profile with a 29.3 LD% and not a single popup. The great thing is that line drive rates aren’t predictive and it’s tough to maintain something that high.

Chris Sale should probably have a BABIP that’s even lower quite frankly.

Jeremy Hellickson has been running a favorable profile and has a .268 career BABIP. That, in line with his team’s allowed rate, perhaps means there’s not too much regression (but some) from his .239 mark.

Trevor Cahill has the top GB% along with elite LD, IFFB, Z-Contact and Z-O-Swing rates. That’s a pretty damn dominant profile.

StatCast Chart

All stats from BaseballSavant.com.

Brandon McCarthy hasn’t been good, but the exit velocity and rate of barrels is just not consistent with the amount of damage he’s allowed. As one can see, over the last 30 days, his xwOBA is 57 points below his actual wOBA, though, again, .358 is not good.

Jeremy Hellickson is one of the names below .300 that’s a bit of a surprise to see, but that’s what these new numbers show us that ERA estimators can’t. Combine strong contact management with a league average strikeout rate and good control and you project good results.

Trevor Cahill has a .309 xwOBA with a 91.4 mph EV because of that 14.7 SwStr%, 61.4 GB% and otherwise dominant BABIP profile above. He’s also faced several offense that hit the ball really hard.

Caleb Smith, Andrew Suarez and Mike Leake have an enormous negative effective velocity. It’s a number I’ve began posting this year and have wanted to talk more about, but just haven’t found many ways in which to apply it. It can help to explain some things, even more so the opposite way sometimes, when a pitcher seems to be throwing harder than he actually is. Unfortunately, we don’t have any of those on this board, nor previous season numbers immediately available (they can be looked up on Statcast). This may be a reason why Leake has been pounded so hard this year.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Sometimes your top guys are your top guys and it’s best not to try too hard and outwit yourself.

Value Tier One

Chris Sale (1t) is essentially tied for the most expensive price tag on the board and it’s pretty enormous, while this does not appear to be an ideal matchup against an over-achieving team (the Rays front office really deserves some credit for their off-season approach – remember when everyone thought they went insane for a week?). However, the stuff he throws is not what they’ve had success against and he’s failed to strike out at least eight in just three of 10 starts this year.

Gerrit Cole (1t) or Chris Sale. Both are playing in domes tonight (potentially). You’re left with umpire, lineups and ownership as differentiators tonight. Otherwise, I have them essentially dead even.

Value Tier Two

Trevor Cahill costs less than $7.5K after being pounded by the Red Sox. In two favorable matchups at home, he has dominated. This is something in between those two things and he does have the second highest aEV on the board, but also the top GB rate with the second highest SwStr%. There’s some risk, but the upside seems to far exceed the price tag.

Value Tier Three

Jeremy Hellickson has been pitching well (perhaps better than he ever has) and is in a high upside spot at a reasonable cost of $8K or less tonight.

Trevor Bauer (3) may be your best bet for a large workload with lots of strikeouts behind the top two tonight, but he’s tied with Weaver for the largest price discrepancy from FanDuel to DraftKings ($2.1K) and may have the second worst matchup on the board.

Zack Wheeler has been anything but consistent this season, but does have some upside at a cost right around $7K and a great matchup against a team he’s previously dominated this season

Luke Weaver is off the board most likely for $8.5K on DraftKings in a low strikeout upside matchup for a pitcher who rarely goes deep into games. Contact management can only get a pitcher who averages a bit over five innings per start so far. The thing is, he costs $2.1K less on FanDuel, which is tied for the largest discrepancy in that direction on the board. It’s common at the higher price points, but very rare in the middle of the board to see this large a price difference.

Jameson Taillon doesn’t have much upside, but a drop in price below $8K and a matchup against an offense with a 30.8 K% over the last week keeps him in play.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Matt Boyd is showing some upside while being a bit of a workhorse (or what qualifies as one in 2018) with strong contact management skills in quite a turn-around for the former home run prone daily fantasy punching bag. I’ve been a bit slow to come around and his cost has since risen to the $8K range, but he may belong closer to $9K tonight.

Brock Stewart giving you five plus innings is not likely, but isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibilities because his odds of being effective against the Rockies is fairly high. His cost is near minimum.

Brandon McCarthy experienced his second velocity spike of the season last time out with a new approach leading to great results. While I usually like to take a wait and see in these instances, I’m considering jumping out ahead of this one at a low cost in a high strikeout upside matchup. If the cutter works that good, he’s going to use it. PlateIQ does not identify many Phillies with a lot of opportunities or great efficiency against the cutter.

Kevin Gausman is reasonably priced in a reasonable matchup, not entirely without upside. He does have a tendency for hard contact, so this is not entirely safe, but he may be a league average or slightly better pitcher and we can certainly forgive a slip up against Boston when he was otherwise pitching deep into games, throwing more strikes and increasing velocity recently.

Caleb Smith may not be doing entirely sustainable things on the positive end with some concerns on the negative end (walks), but could be in a great spot against a team absent right-handed threats at this point. His .305 xwOBA is a top 10 mark on the board, but that’s not that impressive with a 30% strikeout rate, which is likely to fall. Cautious optimism here due almost entirely to matchup.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.