Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, April 26th
We’re given a 12-game night slate on Wednesday, which is actually one more than Tuesday after the rain outs. If you were brave enough to play yesterday, you probably had to pick a pitcher (or two) and there’s a good chance your first non-Kershaw choice was either rained out or walked a bunch of batters, if you didn’t land in St Louis. We speculated on some potentially high strikeout matchups and mostly missed, though I have no idea what happened to Danny Duffy.
Yesterday was tough. I was wavering back and forth between choices when I wrote it, when I posted it, and then all day long while writing alerts as well. We don’t have Kershaw today, but it’s a stronger overall group at the top. The lines should be a bit clearer today.
Lastly, I want to note that there seems to be an issue with the Statcast Barrels/BBE and Barrels/PA stat reading the same number. I’m sure Darren at Baseball Savant will get that corrected soon.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
UPDATE: The Cardinals/Blue Jays game has been postponed for today.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 5.9 | 4.13 | 5.11 | 50.0% | 1.02 | 4.61 | 4.02 | BAL | 82 | 106 | 76 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | -11.6 | 3.87 | 5.75 | 50.5% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 1.81 | SFO | 73 | 79 | 60 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -18.8 | 3.7 | 6.12 | 55.4% | 0.98 | 3.58 | 4.1 | TOR | 88 | 73 | 86 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | -2.4 | 3.75 | 6.48 | 48.2% | 1.11 | 4.19 | 5.13 | MIN | 106 | 90 | 101 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 1.6 | 4.18 | 5.08 | 40.9% | 0.98 | 4.45 | 4.84 | SEA | 92 | 73 | 154 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -11.1 | 4.13 | 5.44 | 35.6% | 1.02 | 4.24 | 4.31 | TAM | 88 | 112 | 126 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 16.2 | 4.77 | 5.53 | 32.9% | 1.11 | 5.61 | 4.13 | TEX | 88 | 51 | 74 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.5 | 3.71 | 5.83 | 46.9% | 0.98 | 3.18 | 2.18 | DET | 145 | 113 | 158 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 1.3 | 3.81 | 6.66 | 46.0% | 0.93 | 3.53 | 4.69 | LOS | 82 | 118 | 93 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 12.7 | 3.43 | 6.39 | 48.5% | 0.97 | 3.61 | 4.49 | PIT | 94 | 81 | 84 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 1.1 | 3.85 | 6.49 | 44.1% | 0.98 | 3.66 | 4.94 | KAN | 56 | 42 | 37 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.9 | 4.08 | 6.19 | 39.0% | 0.91 | 4.39 | 5.43 | NYM | 66 | 73 | 66 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -5.6 | 3.47 | 5.76 | 51.2% | 1.09 | 3.65 | 3.05 | CLE | 118 | 122 | 110 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.2 | 3.69 | 5.2 | 47.7% | 1.13 | 4.27 | 1.49 | BOS | 116 | 108 | 72 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | -1.6 | 4.48 | 5.5 | 45.5% | 0.98 | 6.09 | 6.21 | STL | 74 | 93 | 128 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -2.9 | 3.93 | 5.77 | 40.5% | 0.91 | 3.27 | 3.23 | OAK | 81 | 103 | 125 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 14.6 | 3.98 | 5.43 | 41.9% | 0.98 | 4.29 | 4.15 | CHW | 102 | 68 | 97 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.4 | 2.88 | 6.18 | 49.7% | 0.91 | 2.35 | 2.48 | ATL | 80 | 85 | 52 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 1.6 | 3.73 | 6.45 | 44.2% | 1.13 | 3.95 | 3.96 | NYY | 110 | 126 | 131 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 22.6 | 5.43 | 3.5 | 42.9% | 1.02 | 5.63 | 6.56 | MIL | 95 | 91 | 107 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -10.6 | 3.96 | 5.79 | 46.5% | 0.91 | 3.62 | 4.48 | ANA | 115 | 86 | 74 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -11.2 | 3.82 | 5.69 | 41.8% | 1.13 | 4.07 | 2.75 | SDG | 75 | 80 | 76 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -8.2 | 4.21 | 6.07 | 48.0% | 1.39 | 4.19 | 4.35 | COL | 97 | 81 | 138 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -13.7 | 4.23 | 5.97 | 43.9% | 1.09 | 4.2 | 3.81 | HOU | 124 | 123 | 117 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 5.1 | 3.52 | 5.82 | 0.594 | 1.13 | 3.54 | 2.6 | ARI | 139 | 116 | 125 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.3 | 4.54 | 5.94 | 0.566 | 1.39 | 4.33 | 4.85 | WAS | 110 | 106 | 112 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 6 | 4.55 | 3.89 | 0.481 | 0.97 | 5.42 | 3.38 | CHC | 106 | 92 | 114 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 12.2 | 3.67 | 5.41 | 0.347 | 0.96 | 3.35 | 5.07 | MIA | 93 | 98 | 112 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 4.8 | 4.01 | 5.96 | 0.404 | 0.96 | 4.04 | 5.08 | PHI | 114 | 89 | 103 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -7.7 | 4.63 | 5.41 | 0.506 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 5.78 | CIN | 115 | 94 | 73 |
Alex Wood has been back and forth between bullpen and rotation a couple of times this season because of Rich Hill having a blister. In his most recent start, he struck out six of 22 Diamondbacks in Arizona, but did not make it out of the fifth inning, being pulled after 76 pitches. He should get closer to 85-90 tonight and is in a great spot in San Francisco, where the Giants don’t strike out a lot, but have generated very little offense (23.2 Hard%, 3.3 HR/FB at home). Over the last two calendar years, Wood has generated ground balls (50.5%) and strikeouts at a league average rate. He should be in decent shape from at least a run prevention standpoint here.
Carlos Martinez may have a 10.6 BB%, but eight of his 11 walks came in a single start that seems like an aberration. He’s generated at least seven strikeouts with an 11+ SwStr% in three of his four starts, though the contact hasn’t been as favorable. He surpassed a 45.5 GB% for just the first time in his last start, while his hard hit rate (36.7%) is above 30% for the first time in his career. Now for the good news. He faces a Toronto offense at home that’s so banged up, they were forced to start two catchers last night in an NL park. They’re a predominantly RH offense with a high strikeout rate against RHP this year. If Martinez has an Achilles heel, it’s been LHBs, as he’s held RHBs to a career .267 wOBA.
Dylan Bundy has not allowed a HR and an 84.6 LOB% with just a league average strikeout rate. He’s also generated a 12.1 SwStr% with a -13.5 Hard-Soft% and one of the lowest Barrels rates on the board. He’s done this while facing the Red Sox twice (and Toronto twice). The SwStr% should generate more strikeouts against the Rays (25.8 K% vs RHP), though they have been a dangerous set of bats and not entirely a favorable matchup otherwise.
James Paxton ran into some trouble for the first time in his last outing, allowing his first five runs of the year in Oakland, getting knocked out in the fifth inning, but still managed to strike out eight of the 23 batters he faced. While he certainly allowed too much hard contact in the air in that game (42.9 Hard%, 21.4 GB%), it’s difficult to fault him for much else this season. His 25.5 K-BB% is seventh the majors, right behind Jason Vargas (WHAT??). The problem he faces tonight is a dangerous Detroit group that has fully embraced the fly ball revolution as a team and has been mauling baseballs (37.6 Hard%, 17.5 HR/FB). However, while you’d think his near side-arm release point would play right into their powerful right-handed lineup, Paxton has a pretty strong reverse split for his career (.277 wOBA vs RHBs).
Luis Severino got a week off after going eight innings in his last start. He’s now struck out 21 of his last 54 batters (15 innings) and has had a double digit SwStr% in all three starts. He’s faced Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Chicago (AL). The dilemma here is that Fangraphs says he’s using his changeup a lot more, while Brooks says it’s still below 10% without a single whiff on it. He’s going to need that third pitch for us to continue to have faith in this breakout. While the 11.3 SwStr% is strong, it’s not at where his strikeout rate currently sits. When batters have connected, they are barreling him up often (15.6%), though his 26.7 HR/FB is above his 23.4 Hard%, which is odd. Similarly odd, despite a hard hit rate above 35% at home and against RHP, the Red Sox have just a 6.0 HR/FB in each instance. They are striking out like last year’s Angels though (16.2% vs RHP).
Matt Shoemaker had some pretty extreme home/road splits last year (20.6 K-BB% at home since last year). He’s only started one game at home this year, but did strike out 14 of his last 48 batters in road starts. That’s good news. The bad news is that he’s allowed six HRs already. More good news: there’s not much overly concerning or different in his batted ball or contact profiles. He’s at home against Oakland tonight, which seems like a great spot. The A’s did homer off him twice in his first start, but have struck out an uncharacteristically high 23.2% of the time vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard struck out 10 Phillies last time out and his 11.4 SwStr% was a season low.
Sean Manaea has had a SwStr below 9% in just one of his last 22 starts and below 10% just four times. That said, it’s been just average with six strikeouts in each of his last two starts with five walks in one of them. He had some issues stranding runners in his first two starts (less than 50% of runners), but it’s been much better in his last two. The Angels still don’t strike out often, but more often than last season. This is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball.
Taijuan Walker was pitching on an injured foot last season. That plus a move to the NL has led to a small increase in his SwStr and K rates, but he moves from a great park to a pretty terrible pitching environment. After a strong spring, he’s struggled a bit early on because he’s had issues throwing strike one (53.6 F-Strike%). All of his starts have come against the Dodgers (great against RHP) and Giants (tough to strike out). While the park remains a big negative, at least he gets to face the Padres (25.2 K% vs RHP.
Trevor Cahill has the top SwStr% on the board and is behind only Jacob deGrom and three guys who’s last names start with S (I’ll let you guess) for the season. Prior to his last start, it was written here:
“He’s allowing lots of runs and walks, while keeping the ball on the ground and allowing too much hard contact. This all sounds like Trevor Cahill, but something else is also going on. Through two starts, he’s missing bats like Max Scherzer. He’s not throwing any harder, but he is throwing fewer sinkers and more four-seamers and knuckle-curves. He picked the pitch up two years ago with the Cubs and started throwing it more out of the bullpen last year. Brooks calls it just a curve, but he went from 7.69% whiffs on the pitch to 29.79% so far this year. It grades out strongly on Fangraphs so far, so maybe it’s a good pitch that could transform his career.”
Six more strikeouts (one run) on an 11.5 SwStr% against the Marlins. Make no mistake, he’s in one of the worst spots on the board tonight, but he generates ground balls at a high rate against batters from either side and Arizona will strike out (24.9 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Jon Lester (.328 – _81.1% – 4.2) continues to pitch with reduced velocity. In fact, it’s dropped in each of his last two starts. Other potential issues appear to be well hidden. While his strikeout rate is down, it’s still above average despite his SwStr% being way down. The reason he beat his increasing ERA estimators by a run last year was because of a great defense. That’s not the case this year with a BABIP above .300. It’s a high strand rate and low HR rate. Pittsburgh has been terrible and it’s a great park for LHPs, so people gravitating his way may not be entirely wrong today specifically, but the cost is a bit extreme and there may be some future issues here.
Julio Teheran (.308 – 74.5% – 7.4) has an 11.2 BB% with reduced velocity and despite a massive 72.5 F-Strike%, a decrease in his Zone% by three points from his career rate. Might he be injured? He does have a recent history of strong performances against the Mets and that continued in his first start this season, but he’s since struck out just 12 of 73 batters. The Mets have been bad enough that I’m perhaps borderline on him in this spot specifically, but the upside and floor both seem decreased from what we’re used to here.
Hector Santiago (.247 – 86.8% – 5.6) actually lands above Hamels due to cost, the fact that the Rangers have been awful, especially against LHP, and I’ll even give him the BABIP. It’s just 20 points off his career mark, while the Minnesota defense has been (gulp) great this year (that last part can’t be right). Byron Buxton can’t hit baseballs, but he can catch them. That said, there should still be next to zero consideration of using him. He still allows a ton of hard contact in the air and transitions to a difficult park tonight.
Cole Hamels (.203 – 78.4% – 11.1) had some red flags last year, but was buoyed by a 79.1 LOB% that was above 80% for most of the season. This year, it’s been an unsustainably low BABIP. To make matters worse, he’s maintained occasional control issues, while his strikeout rate has cratered. The good news is that it has nothing to do with velocity and he posted a season high 11.2 SwStr% in his last start, but you’re essentially being asked to pay for a name and a prayer at this point. It’s a tough park and the Twins do have some bats that mash LH pitching (Dozier, Sano), though they’ve failed to do so as a team yet this year (4.8 HR/FB vs LHP).
Daniel Norris (.298 – 69.2% – 0) may have some upside beyond his estimators due to league average SwStr%, but he has an ERA above three and a half without a HR allowed yet and a 38.6 Hard%. Some bills are going to come due soon. The Mariners haven’t done much against LHP despite nearly as many walks as strikeouts. They should be better.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Vince Velasquez is a flawed arm with a ton of upside when he’s on. It’s very high risk, high reward. In three games, he’s generated both 10 strikeouts (18.2 SwStr%) and two strikeouts (2.4 SwStr%). Absolutely no idea what you’re going to get and he’s not a stranger to HRs when he’s off either, while the Marlins have shown quite a bit of power this year (17.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Walks and HRs are too great a risk for a guy who may or may not generate strikeouts, though it looks like his cost has dropped about following the rain out, which makes him more borderline for those with high risk tolerance.
Johnny Cueto was smashed in his last start in Colorado. He’s otherwise been good, not great, also struggling in another unfriendly run environment in Arizona, while pitching well in his lone home start (also against the Rockies) and in San Diego. Tonight, he gets the benefit of being at home, but against perhaps the top offense in the league against RHP. His SwStr% was in double digits in his first three starts (just 2.2% last time out), so have some faith that he’ll continue to run a strikeout range a bit above average, as he has pretty much every year. The bigger issue may be a hard contact rate that’s soaring above 35% this year and a ground ball rate that’s dipped below 40%, though San Francisco is a haven for fly ball pitchers. Overall, I think he’ll be fine and should even pitch well tonight, but I don’t know about $10/11K worth of goodness against the Dodgers.
Wei-Yin Chen faced 24 batters in his last start. Nineteen of them put the ball in play, only seven on the ground, without a base hit. His BABIP had been above .350 in each of his previous two starts. Although not a lot of it’s been hard, a 47.9% fly ball rate in Philadelphia is a dangerous proposition for a pitcher with a decreased strikeout rate this year.
Tanner Roark brings soft contact to high altitude. He’s going to make offensive decisions more difficult today, but the low upside is a pretty easy fade today from a pitching standpoint, despite the reduced price.
Rick Porcello has estimators mostly in line with last season aside from the HR rate. The only real change has been the increase in hard contact, which is never a good thing. He’s had a hard contact rate below 50% in just two starts (Pittsburgh and Toronto). However, all five of his HRs have come against the Tigers and Rays, who have been mashing this year. I’m still not sure he’s worth much more than $9K though, especially in a tough home park against the top offense vs RHP so far. The double digit SwStr% is a positive, but there’s no need to force him in there today.
Alex Cobb struck out seven batters for the second time in four starts last time out, but has allowed five HRs overall with 50% of his contact allowed categorized as hard. He used to have a good changeup, but hasn’t been able to find it again since returning from Tommy John surgery. Batters are hitting .524 with a .333 ISO against it this year and it’s only even been responsible for one of his HRs. That’s not a profile a RHP wants to take into Baltimore. To make things potentially more difficult, the Rays emptied the bullpen on Tuesday with three relievers going more than one inning after the starter was scratched at the last possible minute. He may be asked to take one for the team tonight. On the positive end, if things do actually go well, he may go deeper into the game.
Tyler Glasnow has reduced walk issues since his first start, but call me a skeptic because he’s failed to do so throughout his entire professional career so far. He still hasn’t gone more than five innings in a start, despite throwing 102 pitches time out. The Cubs are no cake walk. They’ll make him throw strikes.
Mat Latos is the pitcher you want to load up on bats against tonight, which makes it even more a shame that Kevin calls for potential “Death by Weather” in this game.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.4% | 5.3% | Road | 11.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 3.9% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.5% | Road | 25.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 2.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.6% | Home | 21.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 18.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.9% | Home | 22.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.5% | Home | 20.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.7% | 8.0% | Home | 21.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.3% | Road | 16.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 16.5% | 2.5% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.6% | Road | 23.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.4% | Home | 20.8% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.2% | Road | 23.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.9% | Home | 23.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 15.1% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.0% | Road | 20.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.7% | Road | 27.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 8.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.6% | Road | 20.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 1.9% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 17.1% | 7.7% | Road | 10.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.6% | Home | 25.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.5% | Road | 25.4% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 5.1% | Home | 30.5% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.8% | 4.1% | Home | 21.0% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 20.6% | 17.7% | Road | 16.7% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.8% | 7.1% | Road | 22.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 17.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.7% | Home | 21.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 4.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.4% | Road | 18.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.2% | Home | 20.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 23.5% | 10.6% | Road | 24.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.5% | 10.1% | Home | 16.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.9% | 13.0% | Home | 18.4% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.9% | 8.9% | Home | 33.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 14.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 4.6% | Road | 17.9% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 5.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.3% | 8.2% | Home | 17.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 11.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 19.9% | 8.0% | RH | 20.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.2% |
| Giants | Home | 18.0% | 7.8% | LH | 20.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.5% | 9.6% | RH | 23.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Road | 19.5% | 10.9% | LH | 20.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 12.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.2% | 9.7% | LH | 13.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 14.9% | 13.7% |
| Rays | Road | 30.7% | 9.6% | RH | 25.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.9% | 8.6% | LH | 24.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.9% | 10.1% | LH | 20.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.7% | 10.0% | RH | 21.1% | 11.5% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 10.5% | LH | 21.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.1% |
| Royals | Road | 22.8% | 6.8% | LH | 22.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.7% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Home | 21.5% | 11.3% | RH | 20.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 12.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 15.5% | 8.3% | RH | 16.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.2% | 8.3% | RH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.7% | 8.9% | RH | 25.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Road | 21.5% | 6.1% | RH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 9.7% | RH | 20.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 29.3% | 9.8% | RH | 26.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 12.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.0% | LH | 19.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 7.1% | RH | 25.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 31.2% | 5.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 20.1% | 6.5% | RH | 20.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Road | 17.5% | 10.4% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.2% | 8.1% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 10.9% | RH | 19.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.3% | 10.2% | RH | 24.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.9% | 6.0% | RH | 22.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 8.3% | LH | 22.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 4.8% |
| Reds | Road | 16.9% | 8.5% | RH | 19.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 40.1% | 20.8% | 25.9% | 2017 | 50.6% | 20.0% | 39.5% | Road | 35.0% | 22.6% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 52.4% | 18.2% | 38.1% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.3% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 2017 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | Road | 30.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2017 | 36.7% | 15.8% | 13.4% | Home | 27.6% | 14.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2017 | 31.2% | 11.1% | 14.3% | Home | 33.6% | 14.7% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 2017 | 38.6% | 0.0% | 22.8% | Home | 35.3% | 14.8% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 0.0% | 17.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 25.8% | 11.1% | 1.0% | 2017 | 16.2% | 0.0% | -13.5% | Home | 24.2% | 10.0% | -2.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 0.0% | -15.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.2% | 10.7% | 18.7% | 2017 | 36.0% | 5.6% | 20.0% | Road | 35.5% | 8.9% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 6.7% | 21.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.4% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Road | 33.5% | 7.8% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2017 | 37.7% | 18.5% | 19.5% | Home | 24.9% | 2.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 15.4% | 21.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 2017 | 30.9% | 4.2% | 16.2% | Road | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.0% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 2017 | 35.7% | 16.7% | 20.0% | Home | 35.9% | 15.4% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 1.5% | Road | 30.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 18.2% | 6.5% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2017 | 22.6% | 30.8% | -4.8% | Road | 35.7% | 11.1% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 22.2% | 3.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.5% | 17.9% | 4.1% | 2017 | 23.4% | 26.7% | 0.0% | Road | 27.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 2017 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 35.0% | Road | 31.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 35.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.3% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 33.9% | 22.2% | 20.3% | Home | 28.4% | 12.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 18.8% | 36.6% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 2017 | 28.0% | 31.3% | 8.0% | Road | 37.0% | 18.6% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 40.0% | 3.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2017 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 9.7% | Home | 27.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 2017 | 40.7% | 15.6% | 19.7% | Home | 33.2% | 9.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 23.5% | 15.0% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 23.8% | 25.0% | 4.7% | 2017 | 23.8% | 25.0% | 4.7% | Road | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 2017 | 30.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | Road | 34.8% | 19.0% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | -4.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 2017 | 34.3% | 8.0% | 19.4% | Home | 29.5% | 16.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 2017 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | Road | 22.8% | 13.2% | -1.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 15.4% | -2.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 2017 | 31.3% | 15.8% | 12.5% | Home | 33.2% | 16.7% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2017 | 35.6% | 18.2% | 15.6% | Road | 40.6% | 19.2% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.7% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 2017 | 30.8% | 25.0% | 6.4% | Home | 34.5% | 21.2% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 7.1% | -2.1% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.8% | 10.0% | -2.8% | 2017 | 9.8% | 10.0% | -17.0% | Home | 8.8% | 0.0% | -15.8% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 11.1% | -15.2% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 17.9% | Home | 33.0% | 17.7% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 18.2% | 12.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 2017 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 5.9% | Road | 32.4% | 17.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 11.8% | 6.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 2017 | 37.5% | 8.3% | 18.7% | Home | 38.1% | 17.7% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 40.4% | 9.1% | 23.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 26.1% | 10.6% | 6.0% | RH | 30.6% | 15.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 30.3% | 9.9% | 7.3% |
| Giants | Home | 21.9% | 2.8% | -0.9% | LH | 28.3% | 10.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | RH | 30.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.9% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Road | 36.8% | 11.3% | 23.9% | LH | 32.8% | 4.8% | 15.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.9% | 18.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 27.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | LH | 22.0% | 5.1% | -2.8% | L7Days | 37.0% | 10.1% | 20.2% |
| Rays | Road | 32.1% | 14.5% | 10.2% | RH | 33.8% | 16.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 35.5% | 11.8% | 15.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.6% | 17.6% | 16.3% | LH | 24.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 53.2% | 17.3% | 42.2% | LH | 37.6% | 17.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 36.8% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 30.3% | 8.0% | 11.9% | RH | 33.0% | 12.5% | 14.8% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.9% | 16.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | LH | 28.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Royals | Road | 27.6% | 13.3% | 3.9% | LH | 24.6% | 5.7% | 0.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% |
| Mets | Home | 26.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | RH | 27.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.3% | 1.5% |
| Indians | Home | 35.0% | 16.4% | 19.1% | RH | 36.0% | 13.4% | 18.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.5% | 6.0% | 20.9% | RH | 37.6% | 6.0% | 18.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 25.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | RH | 29.8% | 12.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 37.6% | 12.3% | 19.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 39.7% | 8.0% | 18.0% | RH | 34.4% | 14.1% | 16.9% | L7Days | 33.6% | 14.8% | 22.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | RH | 24.1% | 9.5% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| Braves | Road | 29.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | RH | 30.7% | 11.5% | 13.3% | L7Days | 28.0% | 10.6% | 5.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.1% | 10.2% | 5.9% | RH | 30.4% | 14.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 17.4% | 3.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 40.6% | 22.5% | 20.0% | RH | 33.9% | 20.9% | 13.4% | L7Days | 39.2% | 25.0% | 19.3% |
| Angels | Home | 25.8% | 13.8% | 8.1% | LH | 26.3% | 3.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Padres | Road | 31.9% | 14.5% | 12.0% | RH | 29.2% | 16.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.7% | 19.8% | 16.2% | RH | 31.6% | 13.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 20.3% | 22.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.0% | 10.3% | 15.9% | RH | 33.5% | 14.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 39.1% | 15.7% | 25.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 17.5% | 25.0% | RH | 35.4% | 15.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | RH | 30.1% | 12.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 29.4% | 13.7% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | RH | 27.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.5% | 13.7% | 3.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 15.0% | 8.1% | RH | 32.3% | 17.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 25.7% | 5.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.6% | 13.3% | 1.3% | LH | 29.0% | 10.8% | -0.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 11.4% | 0.8% |
| Reds | Road | 28.9% | 12.5% | 6.3% | RH | 29.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 34.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 23.3% | 11.0% | 2.12 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 2.12 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 29.8% | 13.3% | 2.24 | 29.8% | 13.3% | 2.24 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 13.5% | 7.9% | 1.71 | 13.5% | 7.9% | 1.71 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 14.3% | 9.7% | 1.47 | 14.3% | 9.7% | 1.47 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 20.4% | 12.1% | 1.69 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 1.69 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 17.2% | 10.1% | 1.70 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 1.70 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 30.6% | 14.4% | 2.13 | 30.6% | 14.4% | 2.13 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.68 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.68 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 19.4% | 6.6% | 2.94 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 2.94 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 30.7% | 12.2% | 2.52 | 30.7% | 12.2% | 2.52 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 35.5% | 11.3% | 3.14 | 35.5% | 11.3% | 3.14 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 4.0% | 6.3% | 0.63 | 4.0% | 6.3% | 0.63 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 21.1% | 10.9% | 1.94 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 1.94 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.99 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.99 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 20.6% | 6.2% | 3.32 | 20.6% | 6.2% | 3.32 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 27.4% | 14.3% | 1.92 | 27.4% | 14.3% | 1.92 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.12 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.12 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 16.7% | 7.2% | 2.32 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 2.32 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.4% | 9.9% | 2.77 | 27.4% | 9.9% | 2.77 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 28.4% | 15.0% | 1.89 | 28.4% | 15.0% | 1.89 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.14 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.14 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 27.5% | 9.0% | 3.06 | 27.5% | 9.0% | 3.06 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.95 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.95 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 14.9% | 5.4% | 2.76 | 14.9% | 5.4% | 2.76 |
A total of five pitchers with a 13+ SwStr% so far and just one less above 14%. Syndergaard and Paxton are the two hardest throwing starters in the league (at least last year), but Trevor freaking Cahill!
Interesting that four of our six K% over-achievers appear on the day slate. Even if Cole Hamels meets his SwStr%, he’s still in trouble.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.88 | 3.77 | -1.11 | 3.6 | -1.28 | 4.63 | -0.25 | 5.94 | 1.06 | 4.88 | 3.77 | -1.11 | 3.6 | -1.28 | 4.63 | -0.25 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.29 | 3.79 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 0.41 | 3.36 | 0.07 | 6.42 | 3.13 | 3.29 | 3.79 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 0.41 | 3.36 | 0.07 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 4.76 | 3.28 | -1.48 | 3.25 | -1.51 | 3.62 | -1.14 | 1.14 | -3.62 | 4.76 | 3.29 | -1.47 | 3.25 | -1.51 | 3.62 | -1.14 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.77 | 4.91 | 2.14 | 5.01 | 2.24 | 4.84 | 2.07 | 3.18 | 0.41 | 2.77 | 4.91 | 2.14 | 5.01 | 2.24 | 4.84 | 2.07 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 3.71 | 5.23 | 1.52 | 4.92 | 1.21 | 3.21 | -0.5 | 3.75 | 0.04 | 3.71 | 5.23 | 1.52 | 4.92 | 1.21 | 3.21 | -0.5 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 1.37 | 3.68 | 2.31 | 3.51 | 2.14 | 1.85 | 0.48 | 2.96 | 1.59 | 1.37 | 3.68 | 2.31 | 3.51 | 2.14 | 1.85 | 0.48 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 2.19 | 4.16 | 1.97 | 4.74 | 2.55 | 3.44 | 1.25 | 5.74 | 3.55 | 2.19 | 4.16 | 1.97 | 4.74 | 2.55 | 3.44 | 1.25 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 1.78 | 2.65 | 0.87 | 2.73 | 0.95 | 1.14 | -0.64 | 1.98 | 0.20 | 1.78 | 2.65 | 0.87 | 2.73 | 0.95 | 1.14 | -0.64 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 5.25 | 4.3 | -0.95 | 4.27 | -0.98 | 5.17 | -0.08 | 5.11 | -0.14 | 5.25 | 4.3 | -0.95 | 4.27 | -0.98 | 5.17 | -0.08 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.66 | 3.7 | 1.04 | 3.79 | 1.13 | 2.71 | 0.05 | 4.12 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 3.71 | 1.05 | 3.79 | 1.13 | 2.71 | 0.05 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 6.17 | 4.7 | -1.47 | 4.95 | -1.22 | 5.66 | -0.51 | 10.27 | 4.10 | 6.17 | 4.7 | -1.47 | 4.95 | -1.22 | 5.66 | -0.51 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.94 | 1.42 | 4.18 | 0.66 | 2.92 | -0.60 | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.94 | 1.42 | 4.18 | 0.66 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.38 | 2.41 | -0.97 | 2.21 | -1.17 | 3.5 | 0.12 | 1.00 | -2.38 | 3.38 | 2.41 | -0.97 | 2.21 | -1.17 | 3.5 | 0.12 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.05 | 1.84 | -2.21 | 1.73 | -2.32 | 3.12 | -0.93 | 1.11 | -2.94 | 4.05 | 1.84 | -2.21 | 1.73 | -2.32 | 3.12 | -0.93 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 7.2 | 6.21 | -0.99 | 6.85 | -0.35 | 7.52 | 0.32 | 6.39 | -0.81 | 7.2 | 6.21 | -0.99 | 6.85 | -0.35 | 7.52 | 0.32 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.98 | 4.26 | -0.72 | 4.7 | -0.28 | 6.29 | 1.31 | 4.00 | -0.98 | 4.98 | 4.27 | -0.71 | 4.7 | -0.28 | 6.29 | 1.31 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 6.35 | 4.5 | -1.85 | 4.55 | -1.8 | 6.86 | 0.51 | 6.35 | 4.51 | -1.84 | 4.55 | -1.8 | 6.86 | 0.51 | ||
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.73 | 1.95 | 0.22 | 1.9 | 0.17 | 0.72 | -1.01 | 1.47 | -0.26 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 0.22 | 1.9 | 0.17 | 0.72 | -1.01 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.32 | 3.58 | -1.74 | 3.79 | -1.53 | 4.35 | -0.97 | 6.75 | 1.43 | 5.32 | 3.58 | -1.74 | 3.79 | -1.53 | 4.35 | -0.97 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 6.43 | 5.43 | -1 | 5.33 | -1.1 | 7.2 | 0.77 | 8.21 | 1.78 | 6.43 | 5.43 | -1 | 5.33 | -1.1 | 7.2 | 0.77 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.43 | 3.54 | -0.89 | 3.6 | -0.83 | 3.32 | -1.11 | 1.57 | -2.86 | 4.43 | 3.54 | -0.89 | 3.6 | -0.83 | 3.32 | -1.11 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 4.57 | 3.68 | -0.89 | 3.85 | -0.72 | 3.19 | -1.38 | 3.54 | -1.03 | 4.57 | 3.68 | -0.89 | 3.85 | -0.72 | 3.19 | -1.38 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.65 | 4.01 | 0.36 | 3.96 | 0.31 | 3.44 | -0.21 | 2.77 | -0.88 | 3.65 | 4.02 | 0.37 | 3.96 | 0.31 | 3.44 | -0.21 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.35 | 3.2 | -3.15 | 3.25 | -3.1 | 3.74 | -2.61 | 1.65 | -4.70 | 6.35 | 3.2 | -3.15 | 3.25 | -3.1 | 3.74 | -2.61 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 3.44 | 3.03 | -0.41 | 2.9 | -0.54 | 3.35 | -0.09 | 1.92 | -1.52 | 3.44 | 3.04 | -0.4 | 2.9 | -0.54 | 3.35 | -0.09 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.1 | 4.02 | -0.08 | 3.69 | -0.41 | 4.93 | 0.83 | 3.21 | -0.89 | 4.1 | 4.02 | -0.08 | 3.69 | -0.41 | 4.93 | 0.83 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 7.94 | 4.69 | -3.25 | 4.69 | -3.25 | 4.42 | -3.52 | 7.99 | 0.05 | 7.94 | 4.69 | -3.25 | 4.69 | -3.25 | 4.42 | -3.52 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 7.2 | 4.1 | -3.1 | 4.09 | -3.11 | 6.05 | -1.15 | 4.29 | -2.91 | 7.2 | 4.1 | -3.1 | 4.09 | -3.11 | 6.05 | -1.15 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 3.94 | 4.5 | 0.56 | 4.73 | 0.79 | 4.04 | 0.1 | 4.02 | 0.08 | 3.94 | 4.5 | 0.56 | 4.73 | 0.79 | 4.04 | 0.1 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.71 | 5.05 | 0.34 | 4.95 | 0.24 | 4.35 | -0.36 | 6.13 | 1.42 | 4.71 | 5.05 | 0.34 | 4.95 | 0.24 | 4.35 | -0.36 |
By every estimator other than FIP, Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino are nearly the same pitcher this year. I’m not there yet, but it’s interesting to see.
Most pitchers on this board appear to have some run prevention improvement in their future.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.266 | 0.329 | 0.063 | 47.5% | 0.213 | 4.0% | 93.4% | 90.8 | 8.60% | 8.60% | 81 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.290 | 0.237 | -0.053 | 56.4% | 0.154 | 27.3% | 85.7% | 88.5 | 5.10% | 5.10% | 39 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.309 | 0.351 | 0.042 | 45.8% | 0.22 | 15.8% | 83.3% | 87.4 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 60 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.272 | 0.203 | -0.069 | 47.4% | 0.171 | 14.8% | 88.0% | 86.8 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 77 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.307 | 0.298 | -0.009 | 42.9% | 0.25 | 11.1% | 87.5% | 86.7 | 7.00% | 7.00% | 57 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.298 | 0.297 | -0.001 | 34.2% | 0.288 | 22.2% | 85.3% | 85.2 | 2.70% | 2.70% | 74 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.255 | 0.247 | -0.008 | 39.2% | 0.122 | 8.3% | 84.5% | 90.4 | 9.30% | 9.30% | 75 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.316 | 0.270 | -0.046 | 35.5% | 0.242 | 12.0% | 77.7% | 84.2 | 1.60% | 1.60% | 63 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.301 | 0.278 | -0.023 | 39.2% | 0.243 | 14.8% | 84.7% | 85.9 | 7.80% | 7.80% | 77 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.264 | 0.328 | 0.064 | 50.7% | 0.134 | 0.0% | 88.0% | 87.2 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 68 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.244 | 0.292 | 0.048 | 39.1% | 0.174 | 13.3% | 92.6% | 89.2 | 7.10% | 7.10% | 70 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.288 | 0.308 | 0.02 | 30.8% | 0.277 | 0.0% | 88.1% | 84.2 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 67 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.267 | 0.310 | 0.043 | 57.6% | 0.203 | 7.7% | 88.0% | 86.3 | 8.10% | 8.10% | 62 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.277 | 0.233 | -0.044 | 50.0% | 0.174 | 13.3% | 86.4% | 89.6 | 14.90% | 14.90% | 47 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 0.299 | 0.263 | -0.036 | 60.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 87.0% | 94.1 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.273 | 0.204 | -0.069 | 42.4% | 0.119 | 7.4% | 86.6% | 89.6 | 10.20% | 10.20% | 59 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 0.285 | 0.267 | -0.018 | 58.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 85.5% | 88.9 | 14.00% | 14.00% | 50 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.293 | 0.319 | 0.026 | 57.7% | 0.155 | 0.0% | 91.2% | 84.3 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 72 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.288 | 0.342 | 0.054 | 44.4% | 0.16 | 12.5% | 85.5% | 89.7 | 13.60% | 13.60% | 81 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 0.268 | 0.263 | -0.005 | 42.9% | 0.19 | 12.5% | 91.9% | 86.2 | 9.50% | 9.50% | 21 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.250 | 0.231 | -0.019 | 65.4% | 0.115 | 0.0% | 87.8% | 88.2 | 3.80% | 3.80% | 53 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.303 | 0.323 | 0.02 | 43.3% | 0.194 | 12.0% | 86.0% | 89.7 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 67 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 46.7% | 0.213 | 8.3% | 92.9% | 85.2 | 6.40% | 6.40% | 78 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.007 | 31.9% | 0.277 | 21.1% | 83.8% | 89.8 | 12.50% | 12.50% | 48 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.272 | 0.233 | -0.039 | 60.0% | 0.156 | 0.0% | 84.5% | 89.3 | 6.70% | 6.70% | 45 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.284 | 0.247 | -0.037 | 53.2% | 0.208 | 5.0% | 93.4% | 84.4 | 3.80% | 3.80% | 78 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.294 | 0.400 | 0.106 | 48.8% | 0.268 | 10.0% | 90.7% | 84.4 | 2.40% | 2.40% | 41 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.268 | 0.314 | 0.046 | 46.2% | 0.179 | 21.4% | 83.9% | 89.6 | 10.30% | 10.30% | 39 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 0.257 | 0.245 | -0.012 | 35.4% | 0.167 | 8.7% | 87.6% | 85.1 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 51 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.309 | 0.290 | -0.019 | 41.9% | 0.194 | 8.3% | 93.8% | 86.9 | 9.40% | 9.40% | 64 |
With one-third of the league still below a .270 BABIP allowed (team-wise), I can’t wait to see how this plays out. Is it shifts? The fly ball revolution? Or even Statcast aided defensive positioning this year?
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Trevor Cahill is probably not an All-Star and he’s not in a good spot in Arizona tonight, but he’s the lowest priced pitcher on the board on DraftKings by more than $1K and is fifth in the majors in SwStr% with at least six Ks in each of his three starts.
Noah Syndergaard (1) is the most expensive pitcher on the board, facing one of the coldest offenses in baseball. Torn fingernail, blister, whatever. I’ll take one of these please.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Martinez (2) is riding an elevated BABIP to an ERA much higher than his estimators this year. Some of that is due to hard contact, but he’s had some particularly strong outings too. He’s in a great position to succeed tonight and generate value beyond his $9K price tag on either site against a banged up offense that loses a DH in an NL park and sends up the majority of hitters from the right-hand side. Unfortunately, Kevin sees the potential for significant weather issues in this game.
Sean Manaea (3t) is a talented arm, but an unfinished product. There are going to be ups and downs. The strikeout upside is slightly reduced against the Angels, but there’s still enough talent to potentially far surpass a cost below $8K here.
Value Tier Three
James Paxton (3t) steps into the lion’s den (Tigers’ den?) tonight, but still stands a good chance of pulling off something at least respectable here. The Tigers at least strike out at an average rate. Gone is the immaculate ERA and he may even allow his first HR tonight, but it’s hard to quibble with a 14.4 SwStr% and 25.5 K-BB%. He broke out last year and may be a Cy Young contender this year.
Luis Severino (5) still has some question marks and is in a bad spot, but he’s walking absolutely nobody and it’s tough to argue with a 32.9 K-BB% that’s behind only Chris Sale. Performance does seem to be enough to put him here, but the cost is climbing (though it appears to have dropped $700 on DK since yesterday) and I can’t profess to love this matchup as much as the numbers seem to because I’m not completely sold on that third pitch. This is a game and pitcher I’ll be looking to watch tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Taijuan Walker hasn’t shown as much as soon as I’d hoped upon transition to the NL on a healthy foot, but he hasn’t been in many great spots yet. The park is a negative, but the Padres and price tag (below $8K) are net positives.
Alex Wood should be able to handle the San Francisco offense because virtually every pitcher has this year. The park is only a bonus. Unfortunately, he’s still stretching out into a full starter’s workload, so $7.4K is really more like $9K, but he stands a decent chance of getting through six with quality work here.
Matt Shoemaker in his first two starts: five Ks, five BB. In his last two starts: 14 Ks, 4 BB. HRs have remained an issue, but he was much better at home last season and Oakland has struck out a bit more than normal this season, while he costs less than $8K.
Dylan Bundy is generating more swings and misses with his slider/cutter, whatever you want to call it, the pitch has a 30% whiff rate. It also seems to have solved his third time through the order problem. Many times last season, this would be when he ran into trouble, but not so much this year. His price is climbing and the Rays have been a quality offense, but strike out a ton.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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