Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, August 16th
Only nine of 15 games on Wednesday appear on the night slate and those are the pitchers we’ll be covering, though all will be listed. We seem to gain the better part of the pitching board and the game at Coors on the main slate. Good for us for retaining five of the six pitchers above a 25% strikeout rate tonight. We’ll likely have to pay a decent price for most of pitching tonight, but appear to be in decent shape.
A cause for celebration today in that every listed pitcher in this article actually made the start for the first time in forever. Let’s try to make it two in a row.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 1.7 | 4.37 | 5.27 | 39.1% | 1.11 | 5.04 | 4.62 | TEX | 107 | 99 | 134 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.3 | 3.36 | 5.89 | 46.8% | 1.04 | 3.28 | 4.23 | MIN | 99 | 98 | 113 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.1 | 4 | 6.03 | 44.9% | 0.89 | 3.75 | 2.83 | LOS | 119 | 115 | 99 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.5 | 3.78 | 5.5 | 53.1% | 0.94 | 3.61 | 3.7 | ARI | 81 | 99 | 81 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.4 | 4.19 | 5.98 | 59.9% | 0.91 | 3.79 | 4.53 | PHI | 77 | 86 | 67 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 1.8 | 4.09 | 6.48 | 49.7% | 1.11 | 4.13 | 3.9 | DET | 88 | 122 | 116 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 7.2 | 3.81 | 6.1 | 38.2% | 0.93 | 4.1 | 3.08 | OAK | 111 | 86 | 109 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.4 | 4.21 | 5.64 | 34.5% | 1.13 | 4.75 | 4.29 | STL | 93 | 97 | 132 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.4 | 4.02 | 5.98 | 45.1% | 1.02 | 3.97 | 4.28 | MIL | 90 | 93 | 107 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.3 | 4.88 | 4.39 | 45.1% | 0.96 | 4.28 | 6.2 | CHC | 103 | 95 | 110 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | -0.5 | 4.18 | 6.09 | 39.0% | 1.03 | 4.12 | 3.49 | TOR | 92 | 91 | 81 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.1 | 5.85 | 55.6% | 0.91 | 4.43 | 5.24 | NYM | 90 | 95 | 96 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.6 | 4.27 | 5.7 | 50.1% | 1.02 | 3.97 | 3.58 | PIT | 85 | 86 | 54 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.2 | 3.97 | 6.23 | 43.3% | 0.96 | 4.15 | 4.39 | CIN | 93 | 98 | 124 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -3.9 | 3.81 | 5.43 | 44.9% | 1.39 | 3.31 | 4.18 | ATL | 90 | 86 | 75 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.9 | 4.95 | 5.39 | 43.2% | 0.94 | 5.18 | 5.61 | SFO | 84 | 81 | 80 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.2 | 4.77 | 5.65 | 51.0% | 1.04 | 4.38 | 4.14 | CLE | 101 | 103 | 92 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -1.5 | 4.78 | 5.64 | 45.8% | 1.13 | 4.51 | 6.46 | BOS | 94 | 92 | 96 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 7.4 | 5.17 | 3.53 | 40.7% | 0.89 | 6.48 | 5.19 | BAL | 94 | 95 | 127 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.9 | 3.68 | 6.4 | 61.4% | 1.03 | 3.5 | 3.61 | TAM | 97 | 103 | 58 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -3 | 5.15 | 5.13 | 39.8% | 0.94 | 5.75 | 4.88 | MIA | 93 | 96 | 112 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -1.8 | 4.29 | 5.51 | 39.9% | 1.39 | 4.42 | 3.87 | COL | 88 | 78 | 72 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 2.2 | 4.46 | 5.19 | 39.0% | 0.91 | 5.73 | 5.72 | SDG | 90 | 88 | 93 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -11.2 | 5.13 | 6.28 | 54.8% | 0.93 | 4.64 | 4.42 | KAN | 91 | 92 | 130 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 2 | 4.45 | 5.86 | 0.424 | 1.01 | 4.57 | 4.76 | WAS | 114 | 106 | 109 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | -1.6 | 4.29 | 5.38 | 0.534 | 0.91 | 3.75 | NYY | 99 | 113 | 112 | |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.4 | 4.21 | 5.58 | 0.442 | 0.94 | 4.27 | 4.86 | HOU | 125 | 128 | 82 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1 | 4.42 | 5.99 | 0.48 | 1.01 | 4.13 | 5.95 | ANA | 84 | 95 | 93 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -5.1 | 4.62 | 5.38 | 0.48 | 0.89 | 4.52 | 2.83 | SEA | 108 | 102 | 106 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 2.8 | 3.44 | 6.08 | 0.403 | 0.89 | 3.71 | 2.13 | CHW | 90 | 87 | 106 |
Carlos Carrasco is coming off his top start of the season (8 IP – 2 H – 0 ER – 2 BB – 10 K – 28 BF) in Tampa Bay after a couple of stinkers. His SwStr% has dipped into single digits just twice in his last 20 starts. His 20.4 K-BB% is 12th among qualifiers and his 27.2 K% is third best among all pitchers today by a fraction of a point. Contact management is average. The Twins are an average offense, who have been hitting the ball well. Minnesota is a slightly run positive environment, making it a slightly worse than neutral spot.
Carlos Rodon struck out just four in his last start, the fourth time in eight starts he’s gotten that many or fewer, but he’s struck out at least nine in the other four. He also pitched into the eighth inning without a walk for the second consecutive start, though he has now allowed a HR in six straight. While his 17.4 K-BB% is borderline All-Star and currently the highest mark of his career, his 89.8 mph aEV (20 Hard-Soft%) is worst on the slate. He’s in a tough spot in L.A. against an offense with power (21 Hard-Soft% at home, 17.5 HR/FB vs LHP) and walks a lot (11.2% vs LHP), but the significantly negative run environment neutralizes the matchup somewhat.
Charlie Morton has a string of six straight starts without a hard hit rate above 20% (-20.2 Hard-Soft%) snapped in the Texas heat. While that was not hard to see coming, his 47.4 Hard-Soft% was a bit extreme. Those are tough conditions under which to pitch, but he still struck out six of 27 Rangers and kept his team in the game. His 25.4 K% is the best of his career (more than 20 innings), while he’s generating ground balls at an above average rate (51.1%) with just an 85.2 mph aEV (second best on the slate). It’s a great benefit getting the Diamondbacks outside of Arizona, where the offense plays down, but you still get the strikeouts (24.2% on the road, 23.4% vs RHP, 30.1% over the last week).
Jacob Faria struck out everybody at AAA this season (34.7% in 58.2 IP) and then dominated in his first month of major league action (23.6 K-BB%) before cratering over his next four (2.9 K-BB%), but did retain a 10.9 SwStr% over that span and has now struck out 34.3% (14.0 SwStr%) over his last three starts. He does have a 14.3 BB% over this latest span though and did allow five runs in his last start. His velocity also seems to be slowly and steadily declining, above 92 mph when he first came up to barely averaging 91 mph in his most recent start. All of that said, he does have a top five strikeout rate on this board and may be in a slightly favorable spot hosting the Blue Jays. We haven’t yet spoken about contact management and while he generates few ground balls (39%), authority rates have been passable, if nothing special.
Marcus Stroman is an elite ground ball generator (62.8% leads all qualified pitchers by more than five points) with a league average strikeout rate. That’s a pretty valuable pitcher and although strikeouts have slipped over the last month, his SwStr% remains league average, so there are no significant concerns there. He does seem to go through stretches with those however. The issue has many been in his inability to muffle hard contact, which runs his BABIP up over .300 (.311 this year, .305 career). Since his last start of June though, he has just a 5.1 Hard-Soft% with a 66.9 GB% (nine starts). His 37.5 Hard% last time out was his highest mark over this span and only the third time above 30%, although they’ve all come in his last four starts with a BABIP above .400 in two of those. So perhaps there’s less to see here than we were hoping for. Tampa Bay has power (16 HR/FB at home and vs RHP), but strikes out a ton (25% at home and vs RHP). The Rays also have just an 89 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers.
Yu Darvish has struck out 20 of 47 batters in his first two starts for the Dodgers and now gets his first home start in a fantastic spot against the White Sox, who are likely worse than their overall numbers since the trade deadline and in a National League park, no less one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.229 – 72.2% – 10.8) threw a gem at the Astros last time out and has now not allowed an ER over 16 innings in his last two starts. If you know anything about him the last couple of years, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should expect him to pitch well again. In fact, he’s still only exceeded five strikeouts three times this year with a high of seven. While his 52.4 GB% is a career high, his 36.7 Hard% and 8.7 K-BB% are career worsts, the latter nearly half his career average. He might have the worst matchup on the board against a Detroit offense that still beats up on lefties (23.4 Hard-Soft%) and ground ball pitchers (113 sOPS+).
Taijuan Walker (.278 – 71.7% – 11.7) has a 16.4% unearned run rate and just a 6.7 SwStr% over the last month and below that in three of his last four starts.
Lance Lynn (.226 – 82.1% – 14.8) has a total of 10 strikeouts over his last three starts. The Red Sox are unlikely to assist with that portion of his game.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jaime Garcia has league average strikeout potential with a high ground ball rate (54.6% is fifth among qualifiers) and 7.0 Hard-Soft%. That’s the good news. His walk rate (9.2%) ties the highest of his career, including 10 of 78 batters since being traded from Atlanta. He allowed two HRs in his first Yankee Stadium start, but transitions to a much more favorable run environment at Citi Field in a strong spot. The Mets have a 17.7 K-BB% vs LHP, but a 23.8 HR/FB over the last week as their top RH bat is heating up. I’d certainly consider him in an SP2 spot on DraftKIngs for $5.8K, but he doesn’t come all that close for me on FanDuel ($7.2K).
Jon Gray is not in a terrible spot as far as Coors go and his 84.3 mph aEV is lowest on the board, but it’s still one of the worst spots on this board and that exit velocity is climbing, while he has just an 8.0 SwStr% this year. He’s now struck out four in each of his last two starts and even has three starts of one strikeout each this year. His 50% ground ball rate with quality contact management could prevent too much damage here, but the Braves don’t strike out a lot (15.5% over the last week).
Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off his best start since returning from the DL, six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Yankees, who struggle against LHP. He’s one of only four pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% on the slate and a difficult omission, but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has now only gotten past the sixth inning once this year and is facing one of the hottest offenses in the majors at Fenway. All those factors turn a normally neutral offense into one of the worst matchups on the board. The Cardinals are a top 10 offense against fly ball pitchers too (107 sOPS+).
John Lackey has struck out seven in two of his last three starts, after having that many in only four starts previously, all among his first seven starts of the season. He still has a massive HR problem despite contact authority numbers that don’t look terrible. His 29 HRs allowed are third most in the majors though. The Reds have a 14.8 BB% and 19.4 HR/FB over the last week.
Mike Foltynewicz is not even in a terrible spot here. The Rockies are terrible against RHP, even with the prop up of Coors in half their games. Give me all the Charlie Blackmon of course (LHBs .367 wOBA this year and .369 career against him), but he could be otherwise be nearly passable here, though still not someone I’d venture actually using here. We’re still talking about a slightly below average arm in an unfavorable spot.
Robert Gsellman was told that his general manager said he needs to pitch better than his 7.3 K-BB% in four AA rehab starts to reclaim his spot in the club’s rotation, to which he responded, “I don’t care”. While we all love a guy who actually has the gumption to tell his boss to go f**k themselves, he’s still having a stinker of a year and could find himself back in the minors after this start with comments like that on top of it.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.2% | Road | 17.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 2.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.5% | 6.6% | Road | 27.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 10.6% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.5% | Road | 25.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 24.0% | 8.4% | Home | 25.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 7.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 15.1% | 7.4% | Home | 17.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.5% | 8.2% | Home | 21.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 5.4% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.9% | 6.3% | Road | 25.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 3.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.3% | Home | 23.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.1% | Road | 21.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 5.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 16.7% | 9.2% | Road | 17.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 24.5% | 8.9% | Road | 26.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 10.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.9% | Road | 18.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.9% | Home | 22.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 7.6% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 7.0% | Home | 22.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.9% | Home | 24.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.3% | Home | 15.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.1% | 9.2% | Home | 15.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 10.1% | Road | 22.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 11.4% | 4.3% | Home | 5.9% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 5.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.7% | Home | 18.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.4% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 14.9% | 8.6% | Road | 12.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.4% | Road | 20.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 9.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.9% | 9.6% | Road | 17.6% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 9.9% | 6.4% | Home | 14.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.1% | Road | 18.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 8.5% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.6% | Home | 19.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.8% | Road | 21.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.6% | Home | 21.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.3% | 10.8% | Road | 21.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.8% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 7.7% | Home | 27.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 42.6% | 6.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.3% | RH | 23.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 10.0% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.5% | LH | 22.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 17.3% | 11.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 8.6% | RH | 23.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.5% | LH | 20.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 8.8% | LH | 18.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 9.2% | LH | 24.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 9.0% | LH | 20.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.6% | RH | 25.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 10.0% | RH | 22.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.3% | LH | 24.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 8.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 14.8% |
| Braves | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 15.5% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.5% | 9.2% | RH | 19.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.9% | 6.0% | LH | 24.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 3.7% |
| Rays | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | RH | 25.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 14.7% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | RH | 22.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.3% | 8.5% | RH | 25.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Road | 20.9% | 6.4% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 8.9% | RH | 20.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.6% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.9% | RH | 17.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Road | 20.6% | 8.8% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 11.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.4% | 8.5% | RH | 21.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 5.9% | RH | 23.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.6% | 17.5% | 15.5% | 2017 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 18.6% | Road | 31.5% | 19.1% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 34.8% | 10.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 32.9% | 15.2% | 15.9% | 2017 | 31.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | Road | 31.9% | 10.3% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 6.3% | 19.1% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.1% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 2017 | 32.0% | 22.0% | 20.0% | Road | 30.3% | 15.0% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 27.7% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2017 | 29.8% | 14.3% | 8.3% | Home | 27.1% | 16.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 30.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 2017 | 33.5% | 18.2% | 16.0% | Home | 32.2% | 11.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 0.0% | 23.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 2017 | 36.7% | 10.8% | 23.2% | Home | 34.8% | 13.9% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 0.0% | 9.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 2017 | 31.4% | 6.8% | 14.7% | Road | 32.3% | 10.9% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 47.2% | 20.0% | 38.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 2017 | 31.6% | 11.5% | 15.4% | Home | 27.0% | 14.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2017 | 30.7% | 15.5% | 6.3% | Road | 30.4% | 13.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 11.1% | -4.8% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 2017 | 29.0% | 17.4% | 11.9% | Road | 26.5% | 5.9% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 18.7% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 2017 | 31.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | Road | 25.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 9.1% | 31.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.7% | 9.7% | 2017 | 29.2% | 13.1% | 7.1% | Road | 29.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% | Home | 31.6% | 13.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 8.3% | 1.9% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.1% | 17.5% | 2017 | 33.8% | 20.3% | 18.7% | Home | 33.6% | 14.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 23.1% | 16.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 31.3% | 14.6% | 8.0% | Home | 28.4% | 12.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 11.1% | 2.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 2017 | 32.9% | 11.1% | 13.6% | Home | 32.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 10.5% | 13.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 2017 | 37.0% | 19.6% | 22.3% | Home | 33.7% | 18.8% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 22.2% | 16.1% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 2017 | 30.3% | 14.8% | 10.6% | Road | 36.8% | 19.5% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 35.6% | 26.1% | 15.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 26.3% | 11.1% | Home | 32.3% | 26.7% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 15.4% | 6.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.9% | 10.4% | 2017 | 29.7% | 15.4% | 8.4% | Home | 31.8% | 12.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 11.9% | 15.0% | Road | 32.4% | 13.8% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.0% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 28.9% | 13.4% | 14.5% | Road | 28.8% | 16.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 9.1% | 42.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 38.5% | 17.9% | 23.3% | 2017 | 38.5% | 17.9% | 23.3% | Road | 39.5% | 15.3% | 25.9% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 23.1% | 26.6% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 2017 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | Home | 30.4% | 9.1% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.2% | 14.6% | 20.8% | 2017 | 37.2% | 18.8% | 22.5% | Road | 39.4% | 17.2% | 26.6% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.7% | 18.3% | 13.5% | Home | 30.0% | 13.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 2017 | 34.4% | 11.7% | 18.9% | Road | 30.8% | 14.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 2017 | 27.9% | 12.7% | 12.4% | Home | 27.1% | 9.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 18.2% | -2.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.1% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 2017 | 36.2% | 20.2% | 18.5% | Road | 31.7% | 13.5% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2017 | 32.1% | 14.8% | 12.1% | Home | 34.9% | 15.1% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 4.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 36.6% | 17.6% | 18.7% | RH | 34.6% | 17.8% | 16.0% | L7Days | 35.6% | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% | RH | 33.2% | 12.6% | 16.6% | L7Days | 36.4% | 13.3% | 22.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.6% | 16.6% | 21.0% | LH | 35.2% | 17.5% | 18.9% | L7Days | 36.1% | 11.3% | 20.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | RH | 35.1% | 14.7% | 17.9% | L7Days | 34.4% | 12.3% | 19.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | LH | 28.5% | 14.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.9% | 0.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.3% | 12.2% | 16.9% | LH | 39.2% | 17.2% | 23.4% | L7Days | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.3% | 15.0% | 17.3% | LH | 32.3% | 10.3% | 13.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.3% | 18.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.6% | 13.2% | 14.3% | LH | 33.5% | 13.4% | 16.5% | L7Days | 35.0% | 13.6% | 20.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 18.5% | 18.8% | RH | 34.0% | 18.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 40.9% | 18.4% | 27.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.6% | 17.0% | 14.4% | RH | 31.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 29.5% | 18.0% | 11.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 14.2% | 9.9% | RH | 30.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 11.8% | 8.4% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 11.6% | 14.5% | LH | 35.2% | 14.5% | 14.9% | L7Days | 30.4% | 23.8% | 11.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | RH | 29.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 5.9% | 10.8% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 13.8% | 10.6% | RH | 29.6% | 14.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.7% | 19.4% | 9.2% |
| Braves | Road | 31.3% | 12.2% | 13.2% | RH | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 7.5% | 12.9% |
| Giants | Road | 30.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | RH | 28.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 29.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Indians | Road | 34.9% | 12.2% | 18.6% | RH | 33.9% | 12.2% | 17.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 14.1% | 17.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.9% | 10.2% | 17.4% | RH | 33.8% | 11.0% | 16.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 14.8% | 17.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.6% | 13.8% | 15.3% | LH | 34.3% | 12.7% | 15.7% | L7Days | 35.6% | 14.6% | 18.1% |
| Rays | Road | 32.3% | 16.4% | 12.4% | RH | 34.8% | 16.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.3% | 10.1% | RH | 31.6% | 15.0% | 11.6% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.6% | 8.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.6% | 16.5% | 13.6% | RH | 30.1% | 12.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 14.0% | 4.6% |
| Padres | Home | 29.2% | 12.7% | 7.1% | RH | 29.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.1% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Road | 32.3% | 14.0% | 13.3% | RH | 31.5% | 12.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 16.0% | RH | 31.7% | 15.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 32.5% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.0% | 11.9% | 12.3% | RH | 31.2% | 16.7% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 16.2% | 11.7% |
| Astros | Home | 30.9% | 15.7% | 13.3% | RH | 33.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% | L7Days | 32.6% | 7.7% | 18.6% |
| Angels | Road | 32.5% | 11.1% | 13.1% | RH | 31.1% | 12.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 30.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | RH | 30.4% | 12.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.8% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.2% | 13.6% | 13.4% | RH | 30.5% | 13.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 13.5% | 9.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 19.5% | 8.6% | 2.27 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 1.99 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.2% | 12.8% | 2.13 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 2.10 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 27.4% | 11.1% | 2.47 | 30.2% | 10.5% | 2.88 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 25.4% | 10.5% | 2.42 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 2.23 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.3% | 8.4% | 1.94 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 1.74 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 | 18.4% | 10.0% | 1.84 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 20.3% | 11.8% | 1.72 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 1.92 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.2% | 11.3% | 2.32 | 25.8% | 10.0% | 2.58 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 2.61 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 13.1% | 9.6% | 1.36 | 12.7% | 8.4% | 1.51 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 24.5% | 12.2% | 2.01 | 27.1% | 13.5% | 2.01 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 18.5% | 11.4% | 1.62 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.03 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 26.9% | 11.5% | 2.34 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 2.49 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 20.0% | 10.2% | 1.96 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 1.74 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 21.8% | 8.0% | 2.73 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 2.76 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.93 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 2.26 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.1% | 9.4% | 1.61 | 20.8% | 10.7% | 1.94 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 20.6% | 9.0% | 2.29 | 17.5% | 8.5% | 2.06 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 13.0% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 13.2% | 9.3% | 1.42 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.6% | 10.2% | 1.92 | 17.6% | 9.7% | 1.81 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 12.4% | 4.7% | 2.64 | 10.0% | 5.0% | 2.00 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 21.1% | 8.9% | 2.37 | 24.0% | 9.6% | 2.50 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.9% | 8.1% | 2.83 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 2.76 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 9.9% | 5.4% | 1.83 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.02 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.68 | 15.1% | 11.5% | 1.31 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.1% | 7.6% | 2.12 | |||
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.41 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 3.78 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 2.12 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.3% | 8.1% | 2.63 | 26.5% | 9.0% | 2.94 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 27.5% | 12.3% | 2.24 | 33.6% | 16.6% | 2.02 |
Most of today’s outliers are on the day slate, though there are quiet a few, more than you’d expect to see at this point in the season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.69 | 4.32 | -2.37 | 4.69 | -2 | 5.93 | -0.76 | 7.23 | 0.54 | 7.84 | 4.72 | -3.12 | 4.83 | -3.01 | 7.04 | -0.8 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.83 | 3.57 | -0.26 | 3.51 | -0.32 | 3.53 | -0.3 | 3.09 | -0.74 | 4.55 | 4.06 | -0.49 | 4.16 | -0.39 | 3.71 | -0.84 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.24 | 3.92 | -0.32 | 3.69 | -0.55 | 4.63 | 0.39 | 5.82 | 1.58 | 4.2 | 3.19 | -1.01 | 3.03 | -1.17 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.83 | 3.86 | 0.03 | 3.71 | -0.12 | 3.77 | -0.06 | 3.81 | -0.02 | 3.34 | 3.69 | 0.35 | 3.62 | 0.28 | 2.89 | -0.45 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 5.14 | 4.24 | -0.9 | 3.97 | -1.17 | 4.37 | -0.77 | 6.42 | 1.28 | 6.67 | 4.05 | -2.62 | 4.05 | -2.62 | 4.55 | -2.12 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.31 | 4.68 | 1.37 | 4.58 | 1.27 | 4.25 | 0.94 | 4.13 | 0.82 | 3.78 | 4.02 | 0.24 | 4.01 | 0.23 | 4.18 | 0.4 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.68 | 4.37 | 0.69 | 4.49 | 0.81 | 3.41 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 0.46 | 4.15 | 3.95 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 2.84 | -1.31 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.8 | 4.08 | 0.28 | 4.32 | 0.52 | 3.99 | 0.19 | 3.31 | -0.49 | 4.39 | 4.35 | -0.04 | 4.65 | 0.26 | 3.85 | -0.54 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.96 | 4.07 | 0.11 | 3.92 | -0.04 | 4.16 | 0.2 | 3.65 | -0.31 | 2.65 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 3.25 | 0.6 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 8.31 | 5.56 | -2.75 | 5.37 | -2.94 | 5.84 | -2.47 | 9.16 | 0.85 | 8.31 | 5.73 | -2.58 | 5.63 | -2.68 | 5.47 | -2.84 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 3.19 | 4.17 | 0.98 | 4.3 | 1.11 | 3.62 | 0.43 | 4.36 | 1.17 | 5.08 | 4.45 | -0.63 | 4.38 | -0.7 | 3.87 | -1.21 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 4.5 | 4.56 | 0.06 | 4.23 | -0.27 | 4.16 | -0.34 | 4.97 | 0.47 | 4.35 | 4.42 | 0.07 | 4 | -0.35 | 3.52 | -0.83 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.72 | 3.39 | -0.33 | 3.15 | -0.57 | 3.13 | -0.59 | 3.27 | -0.45 | 5.46 | 3.26 | -2.2 | 2.82 | -2.64 | 3 | -2.46 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.82 | 4.47 | -0.35 | 4.65 | -0.17 | 5.63 | 0.81 | 6.03 | 1.21 | 3.42 | 4.66 | 1.24 | 5.12 | 1.7 | 5.56 | 2.14 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.92 | 4.03 | -0.89 | 3.69 | -1.23 | 3.79 | -1.13 | 4.73 | -0.19 | 3.82 | 3.63 | -0.19 | 3.39 | -0.43 | 3.95 | 0.13 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.76 | 5.08 | 1.32 | 5.41 | 1.65 | 4.99 | 1.23 | 4.86 | 1.10 | 3.26 | 4.89 | 1.63 | 5.08 | 1.82 | 4.32 | 1.06 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.02 | 5.11 | -0.91 | 4.78 | -1.24 | 5.45 | -0.57 | 6.31 | 0.29 | 5.01 | 4.4 | -0.61 | 3.97 | -1.04 | 3.86 | -1.15 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.12 | 4.67 | 1.55 | 4.68 | 1.56 | 4.83 | 1.71 | 4.48 | 1.36 | 2.1 | 5.59 | 3.49 | 5.23 | 3.13 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 8.49 | 5 | -3.49 | 5.34 | -3.15 | 8.02 | -0.47 | 7.84 | -0.65 | 6.48 | 5.19 | -1.29 | 5.43 | -1.05 | 5.77 | -0.71 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3 | 3.82 | 0.82 | 3.61 | 0.61 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 3.62 | 0.62 | 2.21 | 4.12 | 1.91 | 3.91 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 1.19 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.22 | 5.58 | 0.36 | 5.31 | 0.09 | 5.05 | -0.17 | 7.29 | 2.07 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 5.39 | 1.89 | 4.13 | 0.63 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.29 | 4.49 | 0.2 | 4.61 | 0.32 | 4.56 | 0.27 | 5.71 | 1.42 | 6.04 | 4.38 | -1.66 | 4.98 | -1.06 | 4.79 | -1.25 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 6.09 | 4.45 | -1.64 | 4.63 | -1.46 | 5.29 | -0.8 | 5.65 | -0.44 | 7.3 | 4.29 | -3.01 | 4.23 | -3.07 | 4.92 | -2.38 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 3.02 | 5.12 | 2.1 | 4.79 | 1.77 | 4.2 | 1.18 | 5.31 | 2.29 | 3.77 | 4.91 | 1.14 | 4.47 | 0.7 | 3.88 | 0.11 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.24 | 4.56 | -0.68 | 4.57 | -0.67 | 5.36 | 0.12 | 6.22 | 0.98 | 7.01 | 4.86 | -2.15 | 4.54 | -2.47 | 4.69 | -2.32 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.16 | 4.58 | -1.58 | 4.52 | -1.64 | 5.08 | -1.08 | 6.35 | 0.19 | |||||||
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.76 | 4.39 | 0.63 | 4.39 | 0.63 | 4.13 | 0.37 | 4.03 | 0.27 | 4.37 | 3.92 | -0.45 | 4.38 | 0.01 | 5.21 | 0.84 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.74 | 4.6 | -0.14 | 4.42 | -0.32 | 4.29 | -0.45 | 4.61 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 4.48 | 1.51 | 4.25 | 1.28 | 3.89 | 0.92 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.25 | 4.55 | -1.7 | 4.51 | -1.74 | 5.4 | -0.85 | 6.54 | 0.29 | 5.18 | 3.59 | -1.59 | 3.4 | -1.78 | 4.04 | -1.14 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 3.81 | 3.69 | -0.12 | 3.64 | -0.17 | 3.78 | -0.03 | 2.88 | -0.93 | 5.04 | 2.82 | -2.22 | 2.63 | -2.41 | 3.56 | -1.48 |
Carlos Rodon has a .319 BABIP and 22 HR/FB. His contact profile is pretty terrible, including lots of line drives and hard contact with few popups. He does miss a lot of bats in the zone though.
Jacob Faria has just an 8.9 HR/FB, without any special contact suppression skills. With just a 39 GB%, a move into double digits could be an issue with a high walk rate.
Marcus Stroman has an 18% unearned run rate (10 of 61 total).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.309 | 0.332 | 0.023 | 37.9% | 0.214 | 6.9% | 88.2% | 87.3 | 7.90% | 37.90% | 253 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 43.7% | 0.217 | 9.8% | 85.4% | 86.9 | 8.90% | 34.20% | 360 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.319 | 0.031 | 44.0% | 0.232 | 4.9% | 79.9% | 89.8 | 8.00% | 40.80% | 125 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.291 | -0.004 | 51.1% | 0.206 | 10.4% | 83.7% | 85.2 | 4.70% | 30.90% | 275 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.307 | 0.362 | 0.055 | 57.4% | 0.218 | 5.1% | 89.0% | 86 | 4.30% | 32.00% | 487 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.229 | -0.06 | 52.4% | 0.172 | 7.2% | 88.4% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 34.20% | 275 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.316 | 0.017 | 38.2% | 0.202 | 9.6% | 85.9% | 86.4 | 5.30% | 31.90% | 361 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.279 | -0.026 | 33.2% | 0.22 | 3.8% | 83.6% | 87.9 | 9.40% | 33.80% | 234 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.295 | -0.013 | 45.9% | 0.2 | 12.2% | 87.0% | 85.4 | 7.60% | 32.90% | 447 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.381 | 0.088 | 45.0% | 0.281 | 6.5% | 87.8% | 86.1 | 5.10% | 34.70% | 176 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.284 | 0.274 | -0.01 | 39.0% | 0.205 | 16.5% | 84.6% | 87.6 | 6.10% | 36.70% | 196 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.007 | 54.6% | 0.181 | 6.5% | 86.2% | 86.4 | 5.30% | 35.90% | 398 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.339 | 0.039 | 50.5% | 0.212 | 7.2% | 85.2% | 85.1 | 4.30% | 32.70% | 398 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.283 | 0.272 | -0.011 | 43.4% | 0.186 | 10.5% | 87.2% | 87.4 | 7.30% | 36.60% | 385 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.302 | 0.361 | 0.059 | 50.0% | 0.224 | 10.4% | 92.3% | 84.3 | 5.70% | 31.80% | 176 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.293 | 0.239 | -0.054 | 38.9% | 0.186 | 10.5% | 89.3% | 85.5 | 9.80% | 30.90% | 369 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 52.1% | 0.217 | 4.3% | 89.3% | 88.2 | 7.90% | 37.00% | 354 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.226 | -0.068 | 43.2% | 0.18 | 10.7% | 82.3% | 86.4 | 6.20% | 29.50% | 390 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 0.279 | 0.300 | 0.021 | 42.2% | 0.156 | 5.3% | 90.8% | 90.1 | 13.30% | 51.10% | 45 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.311 | 0.004 | 62.8% | 0.17 | 5.5% | 88.9% | 88.2 | 5.30% | 37.80% | 455 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.317 | 0.330 | 0.013 | 42.8% | 0.241 | 8.7% | 92.0% | 87.9 | 5.40% | 35.10% | 388 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.312 | 0.02 | 38.5% | 0.232 | 6.3% | 85.2% | 87.2 | 6.30% | 33.10% | 381 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.307 | 0.01 | 39.0% | 0.193 | 8.5% | 88.0% | 88.1 | 8.60% | 37.70% | 257 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.292 | 0.262 | -0.03 | 54.8% | 0.179 | 4.3% | 91.8% | 86.6 | 2.40% | 34.50% | 168 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.285 | 0.313 | 0.028 | 41.6% | 0.204 | 7.5% | 84.7% | 89.6 | 9.60% | 40.00% | 428 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.320 | 0.331 | 0.011 | 53.1% | 0.198 | 8.5% | 88.6% | 86.7 | 6.00% | 37.10% | 267 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.278 | -0.016 | 46.0% | 0.198 | 8.1% | 86.1% | 87.9 | 6.40% | 36.20% | 329 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 47.3% | 0.206 | 7.9% | 84.8% | 86.6 | 5.70% | 32.90% | 401 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.311 | -0.004 | 45.3% | 0.194 | 8.9% | 88.9% | 88.5 | 8.10% | 39.90% | 356 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 0.280 | 0.276 | -0.004 | 40.2% | 0.231 | 8.5% | 83.0% | 85.5 | 6.40% | 30.80% | 390 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Yu Darvish (1) is pretty easily my top FanDuel value and top overall pitcher on the board in a great spot even at nearly $1K more than any other pitcher. At $3.3K more on DraftKings and more than $2K more than any other pitcher on that site, I could opt for Morton from a value perspective for $5.4K less.
Value Tier Two
Charlie Morton (3) experienced a velocity drop of about a mile per hour when returning from the DL in July, just before the All-Star break. It did not affect his strikeout rate, but it did have an effect on his contact profile, as in he completely stifled it until his last start. Getting the Diamondbacks outside of Arizona gives him the opportunity to potentially get back to that and generate a bunch of strikeouts as well. I’m a big enough fan in this spot that I’d call him my top value on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco (2) may not be the most consistent pitcher in the league, but he is among the best on most boards. The matchup doesn’t really push it hard in one direction or the other. He’s second most expensive on FanDuel, third on DraftKings.
Marcus Stroman (4) probably should best end up between tiers here. He’s likely usable on both sites in a high strikeout spot despite a nearly $3K price gap. While the strikeout rate has dipped over the last month with hard contact once again increasing, he still has a league average SwStr% and keeps it on the ground.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jacob Faria is one of few pitchers on the board with high strikeout potential and costs a bit above average in a slightly favorable matchup with the Blue Jays. There’s potential for a strong performance here, but his walk rate is a concern against an offense with some power too.
Carlos Rodon faces a difficult offense in a favorable park. He’s been inconsistent, but he hasn’t walked a batter in two starts, which has allowed him to go deep into those games. This seems like a high variance spot with a wide range of potential outcomes, but if he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff, he might still be able to give you length if he throws strikes. A skill that might be challenged tonight. At his lower cost, where he’s separated by more than $4K from Carrasco on DraftKings, I’d consider them of equal value.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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