Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 3rd
I can’t remember many times (if any) over the last few years or since I’ve been doing this that we’ve gotten back-to-back full 15 game night slates, yet here we are. Unfortunately, this is not a board nearly as strong as yesterday, where we had Chris Sale at the top, a Trevor Cahill cheapie and even several other normally strong arms we were able to successfully fade (Kluber, Duffy) due to the abundance of strength elsewhere. As anyone who plays DFS knows, it rarely goes so smoothly…and then you need the offense to work out on top of that.
Also, I really hope readers are paying attention to the next paragraph, which has been static at the end of the introduction for the longest time. If you aren’t adjusting according to Kevin’s forecast, which has included some strong, outward-bound winds the last couple of days, ownership projections, and lineup omissions, you are potentially giving your opponents a huge edge. Circumstances are rarely the same across the board by first pitch as they are at the time this article is posted early in the afternoon.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.8 | 4.47 | 5.26 | 38.8% | 0.96 | 4.95 | 5.19 | TAM | 129 | 100 | 99 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -18.8 | 4.22 | 5.87 | 44.4% | 0.98 | 3.78 | 2.36 | MIL | 107 | 90 | 94 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 1.3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 48.5% | 0.91 | 3.89 | 5.4 | SDG | 80 | 86 | 95 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.9 | 4.24 | 5.92 | 42.8% | 1 | 3.54 | 3.83 | NYM | 114 | 83 | 110 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 5.9 | 4.82 | 4.8 | 37.6% | 0.96 | 4.82 | 6.3 | MIA | 85 | 84 | 65 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -13.7 | 3.1 | 6.24 | 49.3% | 0.98 | 2.99 | 2.74 | DET | 116 | 119 | 88 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.83 | 47.5% | 1.01 | 4.01 | 4.58 | TOR | 95 | 94 | 106 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.6 | 3.77 | 5.44 | 56.5% | 0.94 | 3.22 | 2.12 | TEX | 84 | 101 | 122 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.7 | 4.51 | 5.33 | 38.5% | 0.98 | 4.6 | 4.73 | STL | 97 | 102 | 137 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 1.6 | 3.74 | 5.47 | 44.7% | 1.13 | 3.4 | 3.99 | BAL | 98 | 80 | 87 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -8.2 | 3.9 | 5.67 | 49.7% | 1.01 | 3.58 | 4.41 | ARI | 67 | 82 | 95 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 16.2 | 4.75 | 5.53 | 32.8% | 1.04 | 5.18 | 4.35 | OAK | 75 | 92 | 74 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.5 | 4.14 | 6.15 | 44.3% | 0.89 | 4.37 | 5.48 | ANA | 74 | 89 | 114 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.4 | 3.16 | 6.31 | 45.6% | 1 | 3.35 | 2.91 | ATL | 102 | 99 | 135 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 12.7 | 3.31 | 6.59 | 53.7% | 0.96 | 3.46 | 3.21 | PHI | 84 | 94 | 106 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 6 | 3.72 | 5.83 | 53.0% | 1.02 | 3.46 | 4.58 | CIN | 76 | 94 | 102 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 1.3 | 4.09 | 6.5 | 42.9% | 0.89 | 4.03 | 4.1 | LOS | 127 | 114 | 112 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 12.2 | 3.97 | 6.05 | 40.1% | 0.96 | 4.31 | 4.47 | CHC | 98 | 96 | 114 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 5.1 | 5.17 | 5.9 | 31.7% | 0.91 | 5.27 | 5.72 | COL | 70 | 73 | 52 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | -11.6 | 4 | 4.69 | 42.5% | 0.89 | 3.49 | 5.96 | SFO | 81 | 71 | 64 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -10.6 | 4.42 | 5.94 | 51.1% | 1.04 | 4.53 | 3.79 | MIN | 106 | 115 | 135 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -11.1 | 3.94 | 5.85 | 44.3% | 1.13 | 3.93 | 5.58 | BOS | 100 | 98 | 84 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.6 | 3.54 | 6.51 | 60.4% | 1.01 | 3.31 | 3.06 | NYY | 151 | 129 | 149 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 1.6 | 4.61 | 4.97 | 36.3% | 0.98 | 4.99 | 5.04 | CLE | 100 | 84 | 102 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 1.1 | 4.97 | 5.24 | 0.505 | 1.06 | 5.39 | 6.51 | KAN | 80 | 76 | 92 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 14.6 | 3.97 | 5.48 | 0.423 | 1.06 | 4.28 | 3.3 | CHW | 79 | 71 | 108 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | -2.4 | 4.99 | 5.47 | 0.451 | 0.94 | 6.53 | 3.53 | HOU | 115 | 123 | 129 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -2.9 | 4.28 | 5.87 | 0.422 | 0.89 | 4.52 | 4.2 | SEA | 124 | 109 | 97 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -11.2 | 3.76 | 5.54 | 0.448 | 1.01 | 3.38 | 3.33 | WAS | 132 | 179 | 176 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 22.6 | 5.34 | 3.07 | 0.361 | 1.02 | 5.11 | 5.2 | PIT | 87 | 89 | 131 |
Carlos Carrasco has pitched into the seventh inning in four straight starts, striking out at least seven four times this year. The biggest concerns were health related coming into the season and he appears to have positively answered those. He has the lowest ERA estimators in the main chart above and the lowest DRA below, despite other estimators a run higher than his ERA due to a .198 BABIP and 95.5 LOB%. While contact has been less often on the ground this year, he has just a 1.1 Hard-Soft% to go along with the standard elite K-BB% (21.1) he’s put up the last several seasons. The Tigers are difficult and hit the ball harder than any team, though they’ve somehow managed to turn a 44.1 Hard% into just a 5.1 HR/FB over the last week. They do have just an 89 sOPS+ vs power pitchers though, a 33% reduction from their overall offensive output.
Charlie Morton has an ERA well above all of his estimators as new-found velocity has turned him from the extreme ground ball type to something of a power pitcher. He’s generating swings and misses at about a league average rate with a strikeout rate a few points above it, but all in an acceptable range. The overall results haven’t been completely favorable due to a .338 BABIP and it seems to be in the hard contact (26.8 Hard-Soft%), which has led to a 23.5 LD% without a single popup. If he can figure out a way to eliminate some of that, the outlook appears positive. The Rangers are an average offense and they do have power (17.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but also strike out a lot (23% on the road and vs RHP, a league high 30.5% over the last week).
Drew Pomeranz hasn’t been working deep into games (six innings just twice), but has looked pretty good in four starts. This will now be the third time he’s faced the Orioles, striking out 10 of 46 batters, allowing just three runs in 11.1 innings. Not only do they not hit LHP though, but they’ve been striking out a ton (26.1% on the road, 27.2% vs LHP). His SwStr% suggests something a little closer to league average with the other concern being the most hitter-friendly run environment in play tonight.
Jacob deGrom is really the only reason to watch the Mets right now. He has three straight double-digit strikeout efforts with a 22.3 SwStr% over that span. Contact opponents have infrequently made has been harder than usual (35.6%), though that’s less of a concern when you nearly have a strikeout rate to match. As for the increased walk rate, six of his 11 came in one afternoon start. The biggest concern from an upside standpoint is the lack of strikeouts in the Atlanta lineup. They have just a 15.4 K% over the last week. They do see a 29% reduction in offense against power pitchers though (92 sOPS+).
Jake Arrieta was punished in Boston last time out and now has an ERA over four and a half. While it’s easy to blame that on velocity, he’s actually ticked up around a mph over his last two starts, though still below last year. His 42.5 GB% is his lowest since leaving Baltimore, while his 32.5 Hard% is more than seven points higher than anything he’s done in Chicago, but the walk rate is improved again and the 11.1 SwStr% ties a season high, bringing his 21.1 K-BB% in line with his awesome 2015 season. The Phillies may be an improved offense, but are still not a good one and strike out quite a bit.
Jameson Taillon has yet to reach his strikeout potential with either four or six in each start and his 9.6% walk rate is more than double last year at the minors or majors, but he’s keeping batted balls on the ground 55.2% of the time with hard contact rates lower than league average. While that doesn’t look like enough, a ground ball rate just outside the top 10 with a nearly league average strikeout rate against a below-average offense plays most nights.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.258 – 89.1% – 9.1) is in line with most of his career numbers and rates, though Statcast likes his contact management a bit. He’s missing a few less bats, but is still around league average in that department. It’s difficult to grant him the full weight of the low BABIP with a much higher career rate, but the defense has been good and there’s nothing concerning in his profile. Despite the high strand rate, if we were running a fifth tier, he’d probably be on it along with Wainwright and Karns maybe. He probably will give you something around $9K worth of value, which is almost exactly what he costs. Arizona has really struggled away from home this season (expected) and also against LHP (unexpected).
Kendall Graveman (.239 – 91.4% – 11.5) has shown us that increasing velocity on a sinker you’re going to throw 90% of the time doesn’t necessarily turn into a useful K% more than it punishes your previously strong ground ball rate (41.4% this year, 50.8% career). His hard contact rate is up this season too.
Chase Anderson (.259 – 76% – 3.2) has generated a weak enough exit velocity (83.8 mph, 3.5% Barrels/BBE) despite his league average hard hit rate, that I’d be willing to concede the low BABIP despite the poor defense behind him. He’s also missing bats at a league average rate, but he’s had more trouble with RHBs than LHBs throughout his career. Though his wOBA is lower against them this year, the peripherals tell a different story. Despite last night’s lack of offensive output, the Cardinals are one of the hotter offenses in the league (5.0 K-BB% over the last week). He’s also averaged just 5.1 innings over the last two calendar years, a bit difficult to pay more than $7K for. He’s gone more than six innings just once this year.
Hector Santiago (.276 – 84.8% – 4.8) has the highest exit velocity on the board. He’ll sometimes miss enough bats to be useful and isn’t in a terrible spot against Oakland, but the park isn’t really all that favorable to LHP and he’s always been a hard contact generator with one of the lowest GB rates in the league. Oakland improves 17% against fly ball pitchers to a 102 sOPS+ according to Baseball-Reference.
Hisashi Iwakuma (.200 – 82% – 17.1) now comes with a double-digit walk rate to go along with his greatly reduced strikeout rate.
Antonio Senzatela (.232 – 81.2% – 8.4) is difficult to analyze, as most young Colorado pitchers are in their first couple of months, but his 5.5 SwStr% isn’t going to cut it.
Matt Boyd (.289 – 79.9% – 9.4) allows too much hard contact in the air. Cleveland has been below average vs LHP, but has a 116 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers.
Blake Snell (.234 – 66.1% – 10) may not get many more starts with a 0.0 K-BB%. Six unearned runs can also account for the gap between his ERA and estimators.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Nathan Karns has had three road starts with his lone one at home against the contact-prone Angels. He’s the type of fly ball pitcher I expected to like quite often at home for a reasonable price this season. Except, he’s not a fly ball pitcher this year. His 61.4 GB% is fifth in the league. He’s doubled his changeup usage at the cost of his knucklecurve. That’s usually a reverse platoon split, but he’s faced twice as many RHBs as LHBs, so I don’t know. His K% is decreased, though his SwStr% is still right where it was last year, barely in double digits. I still kind of like him. The White Sox are awful vs RHP (19.2 K-BB%), but he really never goes more than six innings and I like the other arms listed at the bottom more and am not sure what he is this year now. This is a pitcher where additional information (weather, umpire, lineup, ownership) could sway me and that basically goes for the first few pitchers here, along with Gio.
Adam Wainwright accumulated over one-third of his strikeouts in his outing against the Brewers two starts back. He’s allowed at least four runs with four strikeouts or fewer in three of his other four starts. Of course, earned runs aren’t what we most value here. While his ERA estimators are quite a bit better, there’s some incredibly conflicting information between his 18.8 Hard-Soft% and his 85.1 mph aEV (4.7% Barrels/BBE). I don’t hate him for $7.4K here and might even like the strikeout potential if he were less than $7K.
Marcus Stroman has a 59.8 GB%, though he doesn’t generate contact weaker than league average. This would still be great if he consistently missed bats more often. He struck out a season high 10 Rays in his last start, but that’s a strikeout prone offense and he hasn’t surpassed five in any other start. He has thrown two complete games, while pitching into the seventh four times. Please tell me the Blue Jays are not encouraging the pitch-to-contact approach. That’s been a mistake for so many pitchers who have an ability to miss bats at an above-average rate, which he has shown on occasion. Either way, the matchup is not what you want today. The Yankees have a 22.3 HR/FB at home. Aaron Judge could sneeze a ball out of the park. Here’s the thing most massively in his favor today though. The Yankees have lost 48% of their overall offense with just a 63 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers this season (second worst in the majors).
Julio Urias was allowed to throw 94 pitches in his first start. That’s good news. He’s had some significant control issues this year though, walking 13 of the 79 batters he’s faced overall. That’s not going to get him through a lot of innings even if they allow him to throw more pitches per start this year. He does have one of the top matchups on the board according to wRC+ and the Giants have struck out more often this year, but they’ve done some damage to quality LHP in LA the last two nights. They shouldn’t be this bad.
Jeff Samardzija should be better than his ERA. His 18.5 K-BB% is actually the highest mark of his career, five points better than the last two seasons. Contact seems at about average authority, though the line drive rate is at 30.6%. This appears to be a launch angle thing more than anything else. I’m nearly tempted and would be more so for less than $8K, but the Dodgers are too potent vs RHP.
Robbie Ray has elite strikeout upside, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay more than $8K for a massive hard contact generating lefty against that lineup right now. Nearly half of his contact has been hit hard this year.
Bartolo Colon nearly has his SwStr% at a rate where I’d trust his strikeout rate, but this is too old a dog for new tricks. His strikeout rate has been below 17% in four of the last five years and he’s already more than 20% of the way to last year’s HR and walk totals.
Jerad Eickhoff is an average arm in an average spot according to the numbers, but the Cubs are probably a bit above average in reality. Unsure why DRA hates him so much.
C.C. Sabathia has his highest SwStr% since 2012. His strikeout rate should improve, but any talent he had for generating weak contact last year seems to be out the window now and he’s not a pitcher who can afford to make mistakes at his current skill set. Toronto is predominantly RH and has begun to hit the ball better in this series.
Kevin Gausman – I don’t know what the hell happened here, nor do we have the time to figure it out today.
Adam Conley is facing an offense with a 2-digit walk rate is just not a recipe for success.
Rookie Davis gonna be Minor League Davis soon.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.8% | Road | 21.7% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 12.5% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.9% | Home | 19.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 2.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.3% | 5.6% | Road | 19.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 16.4% | 3.9% | Home | 21.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.4% | 13.4% | Home | 24.2% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 5.7% | Road | 28.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 1.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.1% | Home | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.5% | Home | 25.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 3.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.3% | Road | 18.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.3% | Home | 27.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.3% | Home | 23.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.2% | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.7% | 5.4% | Home | 19.1% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 11.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.2% | 5.8% | Road | 21.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 12.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.9% | 7.4% | Home | 28.2% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.1% | 5.3% | Road | 20.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.2% | Road | 20.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.8% | Road | 18.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.6% | 6.0% | Home | 15.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.5% | 9.8% | Home | 26.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.0% | 6.3% | Road | 13.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.6% | Road | 22.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.1% | Road | 20.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.1% | 4.7% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.0% | Home | 18.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 10.8% | 7.3% | Road | 9.4% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 11.6% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 9.2% | Home | 21.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.5% | 8.5% | Road | 9.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.2% | 5.4% | Road | 17.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 4.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.5% | Road | 30.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 9.4% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 17.0% | 13.2% | Home | 25.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 5.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 23.8% | 9.7% | LH | 27.6% | 13.8% | L7Days | 25.4% | 14.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.1% | 7.6% | RH | 25.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.6% |
| Padres | Home | 23.2% | 8.8% | RH | 26.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.4% |
| Mets | Road | 20.2% | 9.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.7% | 5.6% | LH | 21.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 5.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.7% | 9.9% | RH | 21.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.5% | 8.7% | LH | 24.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | RH | 23.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 9.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | RH | 20.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 12.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.1% | 6.6% | LH | 27.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.4% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.8% | 8.3% | LH | 21.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.1% | 8.0% | LH | 23.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 22.7% | 9.2% | RH | 21.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.9% |
| Braves | Home | 18.0% | 8.6% | RH | 19.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.4% | 8.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.7% | 8.2% | RH | 23.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.6% |
| Reds | Home | 22.3% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.2% | 10.4% | RH | 20.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 9.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 27.1% | 7.8% | RH | 22.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.1% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Road | 21.1% | 7.0% | LH | 21.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 5.6% |
| Twins | Home | 20.8% | 12.5% | RH | 20.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 8.2% | RH | 17.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.2% | 11.4% | RH | 20.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.9% |
| Indians | Road | 19.2% | 10.0% | LH | 19.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.7% | 7.3% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.3% | 6.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 6.1% | RH | 25.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.3% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 6.7% | RH | 19.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 18.3% | 10.7% | RH | 20.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 9.5% | LH | 18.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 11.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 17.7% | 9.4% | RH | 16.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 13.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2017 | 34.4% | 11.5% | 18.0% | Road | 30.0% | 10.2% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 14.8% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 2017 | 36.5% | 14.3% | 18.8% | Home | 30.7% | 5.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 2017 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | Road | 29.4% | 0.0% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | 7.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 2017 | 37.8% | 14.3% | 14.5% | Home | 33.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 22.2% | 15.6% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 2017 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | Home | 31.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 2017 | 20.9% | 17.2% | 1.1% | Road | 30.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 14.3% | -2.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.1% | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 17.2% | 11.8% | Home | 26.0% | 16.5% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 26.7% | 23.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 2017 | 42.7% | 13.6% | 26.8% | Home | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 58.1% | 28.6% | 42.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 31.4% | 3.2% | 10.5% | Road | 35.4% | 15.2% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 2017 | 31.0% | 22.7% | 10.3% | Home | 32.8% | 19.5% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2017 | 27.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | Home | 31.8% | 13.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 9.1% | -5.7% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.3% | 10.8% | 18.7% | 2017 | 36.0% | 4.8% | 19.1% | Home | 38.7% | 13.4% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 5.6% | -2.9% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 2017 | 35.8% | 17.1% | 11.1% | Home | 36.7% | 12.0% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 14.3% | 21.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 2017 | 35.6% | 15.4% | 15.0% | Road | 34.3% | 14.3% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 63.0% | 15.4% | 59.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 2017 | 32.5% | 21.4% | 7.5% | Home | 22.1% | 10.3% | -1.2% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 37.5% | 14.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 2017 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 9.1% | Road | 31.4% | 16.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 2017 | 31.0% | 23.1% | 2.3% | Road | 30.3% | 16.2% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 15.4% | -8.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2017 | 31.5% | 7.3% | 20.3% | Road | 32.9% | 10.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 0.0% | 29.4% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.5% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 2017 | 31.9% | 28.6% | 10.6% | Home | 32.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 27.8% | 5.1% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2017 | 6.7% | 0.0% | -13.3% | Home | 33.6% | 0.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% | -13.3% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 2017 | 35.7% | 11.5% | 15.7% | Road | 31.2% | 14.8% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | -11.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.7% | 14.8% | 9.3% | 2017 | 28.4% | 15.4% | 5.5% | Road | 32.4% | 17.1% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 28.6% | 17.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.6% | 15.4% | 11.1% | 2017 | 30.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | Road | 31.0% | 17.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 27.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 2017 | 38.0% | 9.4% | 16.5% | Home | 32.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 13.3% | 11.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 2017 | 29.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | Road | 27.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Karns | Royals | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 2017 | 31.4% | 30.0% | 5.7% | Home | 23.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 50.0% | 9.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 2017 | 18.4% | 13.3% | -7.9% | Road | 29.4% | 6.7% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 13.3% | -7.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.7% | 17.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 17.1% | 14.4% | Road | 39.2% | 13.9% | 25.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.8% | 12.3% | 21.5% | 2017 | 48.0% | 18.2% | 37.0% | Road | 36.1% | 15.7% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 22.2% | 42.4% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 29.7% | 25.0% | 18.9% | 2017 | 29.7% | 25.0% | 18.9% | Home | 30.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 35.2% | 14.4% | 15.3% | LH | 32.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 29.6% | 13.7% | 4.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.4% | 22.3% | 11.3% | RH | 33.6% | 21.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Padres | Home | 26.5% | 15.8% | 3.8% | RH | 29.4% | 18.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 19.3% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Road | 33.1% | 17.6% | 13.9% | RH | 29.5% | 12.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 15.3% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.0% | 13.4% | 7.3% | LH | 24.4% | 12.1% | -0.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.0% | 11.0% | 34.3% | RH | 44.9% | 12.1% | 28.5% | L7Days | 44.1% | 5.1% | 25.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.8% | 12.6% | 13.1% | LH | 31.4% | 9.1% | 15.7% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.0% | 13.9% | 7.2% | RH | 34.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% | L7Days | 35.3% | 23.9% | 17.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.1% | 11.6% | 6.8% | RH | 29.3% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 15.8% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.0% | 15.9% | 18.4% | LH | 33.8% | 12.3% | 18.9% | L7Days | 33.1% | 11.1% | 20.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | LH | 34.4% | 11.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 35.7% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 37.1% | 10.1% | 16.8% | LH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 33.6% | 13.0% | 15.3% |
| Angels | Road | 29.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | RH | 27.7% | 12.4% | 5.7% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.7% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Home | 31.5% | 15.3% | 13.0% | RH | 31.2% | 12.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.2% | 14.3% | 10.4% | RH | 30.7% | 14.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 36.3% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| Reds | Home | 29.0% | 13.6% | 7.1% | RH | 29.0% | 11.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 16.3% | 5.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 37.6% | 15.3% | 26.3% | RH | 34.7% | 13.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 36.9% | 15.4% | 27.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.8% | 12.9% | 7.2% | RH | 28.5% | 10.4% | 11.8% | L7Days | 31.5% | 19.6% | 16.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 35.0% | 10.9% | 13.5% | RH | 32.6% | 12.4% | 11.8% | L7Days | 34.0% | 9.4% | 14.9% |
| Giants | Road | 30.6% | 11.1% | 11.2% | LH | 26.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.1% | -1.0% |
| Twins | Home | 33.3% | 11.5% | 15.7% | RH | 34.7% | 14.6% | 19.8% | L7Days | 36.8% | 25.7% | 23.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.5% | 8.3% | 20.9% | RH | 38.6% | 7.6% | 20.1% | L7Days | 39.5% | 12.2% | 20.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.1% | 22.3% | 8.2% | RH | 29.9% | 16.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 23.5% | 8.0% |
| Indians | Road | 37.8% | 9.3% | 19.7% | LH | 35.7% | 9.8% | 19.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 8.7% | 14.1% |
| Royals | Home | 29.3% | 9.6% | 8.0% | RH | 30.0% | 12.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.5% | 13.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | RH | 25.9% | 11.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 15.5% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Home | 27.9% | 15.6% | 8.0% | RH | 31.9% | 13.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 26.7% | 13.8% | 4.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | RH | 29.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.9% | 17.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.8% | 16.9% | 18.0% | LH | 32.7% | 23.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 34.6% | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | RH | 29.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 32.3% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 18.2% | 10.4% | 1.75 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 1.75 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 | 22.0% | 8.5% | 2.59 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 14.3% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 14.3% | 5.5% | 2.60 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 19.2% | 6.3% | 3.05 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 3.05 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.94 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.94 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.6% | 11.5% | 2.31 | 26.6% | 11.5% | 2.31 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 15.9% | 11.4% | 1.39 | 15.9% | 11.4% | 1.39 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 24.6% | 9.8% | 2.51 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 2.51 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 29.4% | 9.0% | 3.27 | 29.4% | 9.0% | 3.27 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 19.4% | 9.0% | 2.16 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 2.16 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 18.7% | 9.6% | 1.95 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 1.95 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 11.3% | 8.0% | 1.41 | 11.3% | 8.0% | 1.41 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 34.4% | 17.8% | 1.93 | 34.4% | 17.8% | 1.93 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 27.6% | 11.1% | 2.49 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 2.49 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 19.2% | 8.7% | 2.21 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 2.21 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 25.9% | 10.8% | 2.40 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 2.40 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.28 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.28 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 12.2% | 8.0% | 1.53 | 12.2% | 8.0% | 1.53 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.81 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.81 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 17.4% | 6.9% | 2.52 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 2.52 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.28 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.28 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.1% | 9.3% | 1.84 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 1.84 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 7.0% | 7.6% | 0.92 | 7.0% | 7.6% | 0.92 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.43 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.43 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.82 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.82 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 30.2% | 12.7% | 2.38 | 30.2% | 12.7% | 2.38 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 17.0% | 6.6% | 2.58 | 17.0% | 6.6% | 2.58 |
Drew Pomeranz is the guy I would negatively regress here. Kevin Gausman is the one I’d expect to see improve to a point where his K% would make him more useful in the future. The other guys may improve too, though it’s unlikely to mean much in most of their cases at this point in their careers. C.C. Sabathia could be an exception.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 6.86 | 4.98 | -1.88 | 5.25 | -1.61 | 5.03 | -1.83 | 8.32 | 1.46 | 6.86 | 4.98 | -1.88 | 5.25 | -1.61 | 5.03 | -1.83 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 6.12 | 3.56 | -2.56 | 3.16 | -2.96 | 3.32 | -2.8 | 5.01 | -1.11 | 6.12 | 3.56 | -2.56 | 3.16 | -2.96 | 3.32 | -2.8 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 2.81 | 4.5 | 1.69 | 4.48 | 1.67 | 4.03 | 1.22 | 6.80 | 3.99 | 2.81 | 4.5 | 1.69 | 4.48 | 1.67 | 4.03 | 1.22 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 5.59 | 4.14 | -1.45 | 4.14 | -1.45 | 4.38 | -1.21 | 6.59 | 1.00 | 5.59 | 4.14 | -1.45 | 4.14 | -1.45 | 4.38 | -1.21 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.42 | 5.88 | 2.46 | 5.58 | 2.16 | 5.16 | 1.74 | 7.15 | 3.73 | 3.42 | 5.88 | 2.46 | 5.58 | 2.16 | 5.16 | 1.74 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.04 | 3.18 | 1.14 | 3.12 | 1.08 | 3.59 | 1.55 | 1.38 | -0.66 | 2.04 | 3.18 | 1.14 | 3.12 | 1.08 | 3.59 | 1.55 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.34 | 4.78 | 0.44 | 4.63 | 0.29 | 5.21 | 0.87 | 8.37 | 4.03 | 4.34 | 4.78 | 0.44 | 4.63 | 0.29 | 5.21 | 0.87 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.5 | 3.35 | -1.15 | 3.38 | -1.12 | 3.46 | -1.04 | 2.61 | -1.89 | 4.5 | 3.35 | -1.15 | 3.38 | -1.12 | 3.46 | -1.04 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.1 | 4.22 | 2.12 | 4.12 | 2.02 | 2.83 | 0.73 | 4.99 | 2.89 | 2.1 | 4.22 | 2.12 | 4.12 | 2.02 | 2.83 | 0.73 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.15 | 3.18 | -0.97 | 3.17 | -0.98 | 4.48 | 0.33 | 3.60 | -0.55 | 4.15 | 3.19 | -0.96 | 3.17 | -0.98 | 4.48 | 0.33 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1.62 | 4.3 | 2.68 | 4.17 | 2.55 | 3.69 | 2.07 | 4.39 | 2.77 | 1.62 | 4.3 | 2.68 | 4.17 | 2.55 | 3.69 | 2.07 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 2.43 | 4.38 | 1.95 | 4.92 | 2.49 | 3.44 | 1.01 | 6.76 | 4.33 | 2.43 | 4.39 | 1.96 | 4.92 | 2.49 | 3.44 | 1.01 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.15 | 5.72 | 1.57 | 5.82 | 1.67 | 6.58 | 2.43 | 5.20 | 1.05 | 4.15 | 5.72 | 1.57 | 5.82 | 1.67 | 6.58 | 2.43 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.84 | 2.77 | -0.07 | 2.63 | -0.21 | 2.9 | 0.06 | 2.00 | -0.84 | 2.84 | 2.77 | -0.07 | 2.63 | -0.21 | 2.9 | 0.06 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.66 | 3.2 | -1.46 | 3.19 | -1.47 | 4.28 | -0.38 | 3.57 | -1.09 | 4.66 | 3.2 | -1.46 | 3.19 | -1.47 | 4.28 | -0.38 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 2.08 | 4.11 | 2.03 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 3.56 | 1.48 | 2.78 | 0.70 | 2.08 | 4.11 | 2.03 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 3.56 | 1.48 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 6.32 | 3.48 | -2.84 | 3.39 | -2.93 | 4.5 | -1.82 | 3.99 | -2.33 | 6.32 | 3.48 | -2.84 | 3.39 | -2.93 | 4.5 | -1.82 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.56 | 4.17 | 0.61 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 3.53 | -0.03 | 7.29 | 3.73 | 3.56 | 4.18 | 0.62 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 3.53 | -0.03 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 4.71 | 4.88 | 0.17 | 4.79 | 0.08 | 7.29 | 2.58 | 11.92 | 7.21 | 4.71 | 4.89 | 0.18 | 4.79 | 0.08 | 7.29 | 2.58 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 1.59 | 5.93 | 4.34 | 4.88 | 3.29 | 3.71 | 2.12 | 1.71 | 0.12 | 1.59 | 5.96 | 4.37 | 4.88 | 3.29 | 3.71 | 2.12 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 2.25 | 4.27 | 2.02 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 4.04 | 1.79 | 1.41 | -0.84 | 2.25 | 4.27 | 2.02 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 4.04 | 1.79 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.5 | 5.49 | -2.01 | 5.63 | -1.87 | 6.07 | -1.43 | 9.42 | 1.92 | 7.5 | 5.49 | -2.01 | 5.63 | -1.87 | 6.07 | -1.43 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.97 | 3.24 | 0.27 | 3.08 | 0.11 | 2.83 | -0.14 | 3.84 | 0.87 | 2.97 | 3.24 | 0.27 | 3.08 | 0.11 | 2.83 | -0.14 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3.86 | 5.13 | 1.27 | 5.11 | 1.25 | 4.56 | 0.7 | 7.05 | 3.19 | 3.86 | 5.13 | 1.27 | 5.11 | 1.25 | 4.56 | 0.7 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 5 | 6.51 | 1.51 | 6.74 | 1.74 | 5.78 | 0.78 | 4.70 | -0.30 | 5 | 6.51 | 1.51 | 6.74 | 1.74 | 5.78 | 0.78 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 6.26 | 4.03 | -2.23 | 4.1 | -2.16 | 6.04 | -0.22 | 7.58 | 1.32 | 6.26 | 4.03 | -2.23 | 4.1 | -2.16 | 6.04 | -0.22 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 2.77 | 3.53 | 0.76 | 3.61 | 0.84 | 3.69 | 0.92 | 5.40 | 2.63 | 2.77 | 3.53 | 0.76 | 3.61 | 0.84 | 3.69 | 0.92 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.13 | 4.21 | 0.08 | 4.45 | 0.32 | 5.26 | 1.13 | 6.95 | 2.82 | 4.13 | 4.22 | 0.09 | 4.45 | 0.32 | 5.26 | 1.13 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.56 | 3.74 | 0.18 | 3.32 | -0.24 | 3.82 | 0.26 | 2.79 | -0.77 | 3.56 | 3.75 | 0.19 | 3.32 | -0.24 | 3.82 | 0.26 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 11.17 | 5.32 | -5.85 | 5.37 | -5.8 | 7.34 | -3.83 | 10.83 | -0.34 | 11.17 | 5.34 | -5.83 | 5.37 | -5.8 | 7.34 | -3.83 |
DRA does not agree with a single ERA for any pitcher here with more than two starts, except the guy with a double digit ERA. I know it’s a well-respected metric among smart people in the industry, but I have no idea what it’s seeing right now. Perhaps it takes a few more innings to calibrate. Otherwise, Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and then Robbie Ray, of all people, appear to be the only pitchers with estimators in line with their ERAs.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.274 | 0.259 | -0.015 | 36.2% | 0.19 | 15.4% | 88.2% | 85.6 | 6.60% | 6.60% | 61 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.311 | 0.439 | 0.128 | 47.6% | 0.268 | 4.8% | 90.0% | 85.1 | 4.70% | 4.70% | 85 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.287 | 0.232 | -0.055 | 48.5% | 0.186 | 6.3% | 93.5% | 87.3 | 8.20% | 8.20% | 98 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.273 | 0.306 | 0.033 | 40.2% | 0.195 | 14.3% | 91.4% | 88 | 7.80% | 7.80% | 90 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.265 | 0.234 | -0.031 | 41.0% | 0.205 | 13.3% | 86.4% | 85.7 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 80 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.319 | 0.198 | -0.121 | 44.0% | 0.214 | 10.3% | 90.7% | 85.4 | 9.30% | 9.30% | 86 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.282 | 0.261 | -0.021 | 43.8% | 0.236 | 6.9% | 83.5% | 86.5 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 93 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.275 | 0.338 | 0.063 | 49.4% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 85.1% | 87.6 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 82 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.316 | 0.259 | -0.057 | 40.0% | 0.213 | 12.9% | 82.6% | 83.8 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 86 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.279 | 0.283 | 0.004 | 34.5% | 0.276 | 13.6% | 89.7% | 89 | 12.10% | 12.10% | 58 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.286 | 0.258 | -0.028 | 45.2% | 0.194 | 6.1% | 84.7% | 83.9 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 96 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.264 | 0.276 | 0.012 | 36.4% | 0.159 | 11.9% | 85.2% | 90.2 | 9.00% | 9.00% | 89 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.304 | 0.200 | -0.104 | 43.2% | 0.136 | 8.6% | 90.1% | 87.1 | 11.10% | 11.10% | 81 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.318 | 0.319 | 0.001 | 43.8% | 0.205 | 3.8% | 70.2% | 88 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 73 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.279 | 0.324 | 0.045 | 42.5% | 0.225 | 10.7% | 78.7% | 84.6 | 6.30% | 6.30% | 80 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.297 | 0.279 | -0.018 | 55.2% | 0.23 | 5.3% | 89.1% | 87.9 | 5.70% | 5.70% | 88 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.293 | 0.321 | 0.028 | 38.8% | 0.306 | 7.7% | 81.6% | 86.3 | 9.20% | 9.20% | 87 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.273 | 0.279 | 0.006 | 40.2% | 0.126 | 4.9% | 86.7% | 88.8 | 5.60% | 5.60% | 89 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.278 | 0.179 | -0.099 | 43.6% | 0.191 | 11.4% | 88.6% | 87.4 | 13.80% | 13.80% | 94 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.294 | 0.267 | -0.027 | 26.7% | 0.467 | 25.0% | 68.4% | ||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.271 | 0.239 | -0.032 | 41.4% | 0.214 | 7.7% | 91.7% | 89.9 | 7.10% | 7.10% | 70 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.294 | 0.350 | 0.056 | 43.9% | 0.196 | 12.8% | 82.8% | 87.4 | 8.30% | 8.30% | 109 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.302 | 0.321 | 0.019 | 59.8% | 0.206 | 9.5% | 88.2% | 87.4 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 108 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.309 | 0.289 | -0.02 | 39.7% | 0.192 | 15.6% | 84.2% | 87.4 | 7.60% | 7.60% | 79 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.258 | 0.273 | 0.015 | 39.4% | 0.212 | 7.7% | 87.0% | 85.2 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 34 |
| Nathan Karns | KAN | 0.288 | 0.281 | -0.007 | 61.4% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 87.5% | 87.6 | 11.40% | 11.40% | 70 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.273 | 0.194 | -0.079 | 47.4% | 0.132 | 20.0% | 82.0% | 85.4 | 7.90% | 7.90% | 38 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.273 | 0.274 | 0.001 | 37.8% | 0.167 | 12.2% | 86.4% | 89.8 | 12.20% | 12.20% | 90 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.297 | 0.290 | -0.007 | 47.1% | 0.214 | 9.1% | 82.8% | 89.7 | 6.80% | 6.80% | 73 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 0.275 | 0.441 | 0.166 | 36.1% | 0.306 | 8.3% | 90.6% | 83.7 | 5.40% | 5.40% | 37 |
I guess the positive thing, from a pitching standpoint, about everyone trying to hit more fly balls is more popups. Even retaining the same IFFB% would produce more popups at a higher fly ball rate. However, this year’s 35.4 FB% is only up 0.6% from last season, while the 9.1 IFFB% is the lowest of the Pitchf/x era (since 2002), so maybe it’s just today’s group.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
As mentioned above, there are a few pitchers where further information could make them more interesting. Perhaps that should be an additional section for borderline pitchers each day. The same can probably be said for negative information on Tier Four guys, although we generally don’t see lineups generally move in one direction. We’re generally not going to see lineups stronger than we expect, unless there’s a surprise return from injury.
Value Tier One
Charlie Morton (4) – Of the five or six guys I have projected for the potential of a strikeout rate somewhere around a quarter of batters faced tonight, he’s the only one who costs less than $8K. In fact, he costs $1K less than that on either site. There is some concern in the amount of hard contact he’s allowed, but the upside allows him to make a few mistakes at that price, while generating top of the board value if he doesn’t.
Value Tier Two
Jake Arrieta (1t) has lost some velocity, but also regained some since the season began and though the contact has been different and harder, he still has a low aEV (84.6 mph) with a great defense behind him. While he’s regressed in some areas, he’s improved in others, most importantly his strikeout and walk rates. Players may look at his game log and be skeptical, but the upside is still certainly there. This is partially an ownership guess. If it looks like it’s going to be higher than other $10K range pitchers, you can bump him down a bit. I expect his performance to be right in line with deGrom though.
Jacob deGrom (1t) is the highest priced FanDuel pitcher (though just third on DraftKings). The Braves are an improved offense (which really started in the second half of 2016) and not very easy to strike out, but not impossible either. He’s got strikeouts to spare as he seems intent on making up for lost time last season.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco (3) faces a hard hitting team, but it’s going to be a contrast as he’s generating a career low 20.9 Hard%. Something’s gotta give, but his 21.1 K-BB% gives him a further edge, along with the Tigers’ struggles against power pitchers. He’s one of the night’s most expensive arms, but has top strikeout rate potential.
Drew Pomeranz (5) has strikeout potential even with a league average SwStr rate. Aside from the park, there aren’t many major concerns. A predominantly RH lineup looks much more imposing that the actual results against LHP. He costs a reasonable $8.1K on either site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jameson Taillon (6) doesn’t give you anything extraordinary, but there’s really nothing too concerning here either. Ground balls with enough strikeouts against a below-average offense in a nearly neutral run environment seems like it should cost a little bit more than $8.5K, though not much.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window