Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 30th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-31 02:10:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Happ	TOR	BAL	327.1	3.41	3.92	1.21	30.8%	21.6%	6.7%	0.93	1.22
Jimenez	BAL	TOR	284.2	5.00	4.32	1.53	27.8%	20.4%	10.0%	1.01	1.60
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	410.2	2.85	2.79	0.92	60.0%	31.3%	4.9%	1.14	0.75
Eickhoff	PHI	WAS	206.2	3.57	4.00	1.18		21.0%	5.6%	1.18	1.06
Ranaudo	CWS	DET	35	8.74	5.95	1.66		13.3%	13.9%	2.06	0.87
Norris	DET	CWS	94.2	3.71	4.44	1.34		18.2%	7.4%	1.24	1.03
Koehler	MIA	NYM	332.1	3.98	4.72	1.38	52.6%	17.7%	9.7%	0.95	1.28
Lugo	NYM	MIA	28.2	2.51	4.16	1.01		21.1%	8.8%	0.00	1.14
Tomlin	CLE	MIN	211.1	4.17	3.99	1.11	23.1%	18.8%	3.2%	2.00	1.06
Jackson	SDP	ATL	107.2	4.35	4.91	1.37	15.0%	15.7%	10.2%	1.00	1.10
Wisler	ATL	SDP	239	4.82	4.83	1.37		16.2%	7.7%	1.43	0.86
Odorizzi	TBR	BOS	325	3.43	4.04	1.18	36.8%	21.6%	6.8%	1.11	0.87
Pomeranz	BOS	TBR	232.1	3.22	3.76	1.16	25.0%	25.5%	9.2%	0.93	1.22
Kuhl	PIT	CHC	43.2	3.50	4.77	1.17		15.3%	6.2%	1.03	1.18
Hendricks	CHC	PIT	332	3.14	3.56	1.09		22.5%	6.0%	0.81	1.75
Paxton	SEA	TEX	153.2	3.75	4.05	1.38	50.0%	20.2%	7.2%	0.82	1.54
Hamels	TEX	SEA	381	3.21	3.66	1.20	58.8%	24.2%	7.8%	0.97	1.55
Graveman	OAK	HOU	265.1	4.00	4.54	1.35		14.5%	6.8%	1.15	1.80
McHugh	HOU	OAK	345.2	4.35	3.92	1.38	42.9%	21.0%	6.3%	1.09	1.25
Wainwright	STL	MIL	184	4.21	4.23	1.33	84.2%	18.4%	6.2%	0.68	1.51
Peralta	MIL	STL	197.2	5.24	4.83	1.62	47.4%	13.5%	8.3%	1.32	1.82
Tanaka	NYY	KCR	322	3.30	3.54	1.03	66.7%	21.8%	4.3%	1.15	1.49
Volquez	KCR	NYY	357	4.13	4.45	1.37	50.0%	17.5%	8.3%	0.86	1.59
Hill	LAD	COL	111	1.95	3.21	0.96		29.3%	7.5%	0.32	1.42
Anderson	COL	LAD	83	3.69	3.59	1.20		22.6%	5.9%	1.08	1.94
Adleman	CIN	LAA	29.1	3.68	5.15	1.33		15.9%	8.7%	1.84	0.79
Weaver	LAA	CIN	303	4.96	5.27	1.37	52.4%	12.6%	5.6%	1.63	0.66
Greinke	ARI	SFG	352.2	2.63	3.51	0.99	50.0%	22.6%	4.8%	0.77	1.43
Cueto	SFG	ARI	391.2	3.17	3.74	1.11	76.2%	21.1%	5.1%	0.80	1.38

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at PHI) – It doesn’t get much better than Scherzer’s last start, shutting down the Baltimore offense – which is particularly potent versus right-handers – for eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed and zero walks along with 10 strikeouts. The game followed a disappointing start against the lowly Braves and an even worse outing in Colorado, but Scherzer has consistently been a force to be reckoned with outside of those two games, scoring over 21 points on DraftKings in the other nine of his last 11 starts, cracking 30-plus in five of those outings (including 40.80 points in the starts against the Orioles. Scherzer has faced the Phillies three times this season but the last was back on June 1, a game in which he struck out 11 batters and allowed two runs over 8.0 innings. There are some solid options on today’s slate, but nobody comes within striking distance of Scherzer, and that’s before considering his weak opponent.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. SEA) – Hamels has tossed quality starts in seven of the last eight turns, falling two outs shy of making it a perfect 8-for-8, and he’s gone at least 7.0 frames in six of those games. He’s coming off the best start of the bunch, blanking the Indians over eight innings with just two hits allowed, with no walks and eight strikeouts. There was an outlier start three turns ago, with 14 hits allowed, but the other seven of his past eight games have involved less than half that total in each turn. Hamels has faced the Mariners twice this season, one being a start on Opening Day, and in both starts the southpaw has pitched a combined 14.0 innings with just three runs allowed and a 13:5 K:BB ratio.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. ARI) – Cueto has been difficult to roster for the past couple months. In his last 10 starts, Cueto has had four different games with multiple homers, four different games with four or more runs allowed and four games of four or fewer strikeouts. He pitched extremely well between the raindrops, including a pair of one-run games in his last two starts and a three-game run of quality starts, but it’s been a contact-heavy string of starts, with just 12 strikeouts and only two walks across 19.2 innings in those three games. The right-hander struck out nine Diamondbacks the last time that he faced them, though he also gave up four runs (including two homers) in 7.0 innings, a start that encapsulates the rollercoaster ride of his past couple months.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. TB) – The Rays used to eat southpaws for breakfast, and though they still retain a number of lefty-mashers such as Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe, the threat level has been lowered in the wake of the trade deadline. Pomeranz faced the Rays in his last start, striking out 11 batters – four more than he had in any previous turn as a member of Boston – with two runs allowed on seven hits and one walk in 6.0 innings. Pomeranz has allowed one or two runs in each of his last five starts, and though his first outing of August involved an uncharacteristic six walks by Pomeranz, it was also the only time in eight starts for the Red Sox that the lefty walked more than two batters in a ballgame. His last start was also the first time that he avoided giving up any homers in a turn for Boston, and though he is unlikely to replicate the high K count of last game, Pomeranz appears set for at least another quality start.

Zack Greinke ARI (vs. SF) – Greinke is on pace to give up more hits than innings pitched for the first time since he was 21 years old, with a current count of 124 hits in 130 innings. He can get back on the good side of the ledger with just a good start or two, but the 13 hits and six runs that he has given up over the last two starts (13.0 innings) represents more of the same, a problem considering that he was facing the weak offenses of the Padres and Braves in those last two turns. Prior to that, Greinke was getting burned for 10 hits and nine runs over just 1.2 innings against the Red Sox; Boston can score off anyone, but that’s a rough picture no matter how it’s framed.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. PIT) – The most enticing thing about rostering Hendricks is the high floor, as the MLB ERA leader hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a ballgame since mid-May and has yet to cough up more than four runs in any game this season. He has a 1.53 ERA through five August starts, starting the month with a shutout of the Marlins, spiking 12 Ks in a mid-month game against the rival Cardinals and holding the Rockies to a single run over six frames in Colorado. The strikeouts are typically modest, but the dozen-K spike was the second time that he had reached those heights this season, despite no other turns with more than eight strikeouts and less than a half-dozen whiffs in 15 of his 25 starts this season. He’s more of the perfect SP2 than a dominant SP1, but it’s worth mentioning that the other one of his 12-K gems was against these Pirates back in June.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Happ	0.289	3.08	0.301	3.50	0.236	0.670	0.295	3.60	0.246	91.23	21.6%
Jimenez	0.344	5.40	0.336	4.60	0.258	0.780	0.330	4.26	0.273	0.00	20.4%
Scherzer	0.294	3.07	0.221	2.63	0.242	0.688	0.257	2.97	0.198	0.01	31.3%
Eickhoff	0.344	4.37	0.267	2.78	0.250	0.731	0.284	3.91	0.244	93.21	21.0%
Ranaudo	0.331	8.86	0.410	8.56	0.268	0.746	0.243	6.91	0.248	0.00	13.3%
Norris	0.376	4.94	0.314	3.30	0.252	0.691	0.292	4.38	0.259	76.43	18.2%
Koehler	0.324	3.93	0.314	4.04	0.242	0.709	0.289	4.34	0.252	93.67	17.7%
Lugo	0.240	1.54	0.244	3.18	0.262	0.703	0.244	2.73	0.186	0.02	21.1%
Albers					0.269	0.740	0.270	6.24	0.277	57.67	14.0%
Tomlin	0.260	2.84	0.363	5.34	0.248	0.714	0.256	4.96	0.248	93.21	18.8%
Jackson	0.306	3.30	0.323	5.14	0.253	0.688	0.269	4.62	0.243	28.16	15.7%
Wisler	0.371	5.38	0.293	4.32	0.237	0.682	0.284	4.90	0.262	0.00	16.2%
Odorizzi	0.265	2.65	0.332	4.26	0.273	0.773	0.275	3.85	0.235	99.80	21.6%
Pomeranz	0.234	1.88	0.296	3.76	0.255	0.746	0.266	3.58	0.211	49.37	25.5%
Kuhl	0.340	3.74	0.270	3.27	0.249	0.743	0.263	4.23	0.242	83.13	15.3%
Hendricks	0.311	2.71	0.252	3.48	0.259	0.724	0.274	3.36	0.225	89.67	22.5%
Paxton	0.382	4.76	0.291	3.52	0.260	0.743	0.321	3.54	0.267	92.56	20.2%
Hamels	0.269	1.97	0.300	3.56	0.256	0.732	0.290	3.64	0.233	103.86	24.2%
Graveman	0.329	3.51	0.319	4.52	0.249	0.744	0.292	4.57	0.269	90.48	14.5%
McHugh	0.315	4.29	0.344	4.40	0.250	0.704	0.332	3.83	0.278	98.41	21.0%
Wainwright	0.348	4.83	0.299	3.76	0.251	0.713	0.324	3.46	0.273	87.39	18.4%
Peralta	0.384	5.05	0.374	5.42	0.261	0.762	0.335	5.06	0.31	0.00	13.5%
Tanaka	0.280	3.44	0.277	3.16	0.262	0.717	0.261	3.59	0.226	95.10	21.8%
Volquez	0.312	3.81	0.317	4.47	0.251	0.735	0.298	4.07	0.258	96.87	17.5%
Hill	0.189	1.69	0.250	2.03	0.262	0.725	0.265	2.45	0.186	0.02	29.3%
Anderson	0.257	1.29	0.321	4.50	0.244	0.705	0.302	3.66	0.251	93.43	22.6%
Adleman	0.424	6.75	0.257	1.13	0.256	0.719	0.256	5.88	0.25	82.00	15.9%
Weaver	0.353	4.61	0.353	5.28	0.251	0.715	0.290	5.31	0.283	0.00	12.6%
Greinke	0.273	2.76	0.246	2.51	0.264	0.741	0.260	3.08	0.215	0.00	22.6%
Cueto	0.280	2.55	0.291	3.72	0.263	0.735	0.285	3.33	0.238	103.28	21.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. SD) – The combination of Teheran’s breakout performance this season and the Padres’ general ineptitude at the plate should make for easy clearance to the Raise level of today’s grouping, but Teheran has yet to show his early-season form since returning from the disabled list less than two weeks ago. He was tagged for six runs on 11 hits but no walks against the D’backs in his last start, and Teheran was not missing bats even before hitting the shelf, as he has now gone six consecutive starts with five or fewer strikeouts.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at KC) – Tanaka is starting to get in a groove, having gone seven or more innings in each of his last three starts and allowing zero runs in each of last two. Most intriguing, Tanaka has started to bring the strikeouts; he went 22 starts before his first game with more than seven strikeouts, but then he reeled off three such starts in a row, capped by nine Ks against the hardest team in baseball to strike out, the Angels. He has only walked one batter all month, but he did kick off August with a seven-run start against the Mets, the game that preceded his flurry of strikeouts.

J.A. Happ TOR (at BAL) – The Orioles lineup is a shell of itself when an opposing southpaw takes the mound, losing 134 points of OPS as compared to when they face off with a right-hander. Happ is poised to take advantage, that is if he can shake his back-to-back performances of four-run baseball. The Yankees tagged him for three home runs two starts ago, a game in which Happ nonetheless pitched into the eighth inning, but the three-homer performance was an outlier, as Happ has allowed just three home runs combined in the other 11 of his last 12 starts. Of course, home runs are the Birds’ specialty, so it will be interesting to see Happ’s levee breaks tonight in Baltimore.

Adam Wainwright STL (at MIL) – Waino is on a brutal run right now, with an 8.53 ERA over his last four starts that would have been much worse if not for the five runs that were deemed unearned. Despite the poor recent history, he does have a few things going for him. First of all, he’s facing the Brewers, a team that hands out strikeouts like fliers on the Vegas strip; secondly, Wainwright has been given an extended leash when things were going well in previous starts, so he might chew up a lot of innings if things are going well; and last, it’s Wainwright’s 35th birthday today, and the out-of-contention Brewers might just give him the gift of a huge DFS score.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. WAS)

Jake Odorizzi TB (at BOS)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at HOU)

James Paxton SEA (at TEX)

Tom Koehler MIA (at NYM)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. NYY)

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. OAK)

Seth Lugo NYM (vs. MIA)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. MIN)

Daniel Norris DET (vs. CHW)

Edwin Jackson SD (at ATL)

Rich Hill LAD (at COL) – For most pitchers, an assignment against the Rockies in Coors Field is essentially a death knell to ratios, but in the case of a curveball-heavy pitcher like Hill, the results can be devastating. His first game with L.A. (finally) was an unquestioned success, with six scoreless frames with no walks against the Giants in his new home, but Colorado could pose a different type of challenge than a rivalry game. Lucky for Hill, the Rox lean heavily to the left – especially with Trevor Story temporarily out of the picture – giving him an easier path through the mountains.

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. CIN)

Tim Adleman CIN (at LAA)

Chad Kuhl PIT (at CHC)

Andrew Albers MIN (at CLE)