Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 27th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-28 02:24:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

Editor’s Note: Kenta Maeda will be starting in place of Jose de Leon.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Koch	ARI	WAS
Scherzer	WAS	ARI	439.1	2.79	2.82	0.92	60.0%	31.0%	4.9%	1.09	0.75
Price	BOS	NYY	432	3.17	3.37	1.13	52.4%	25.1%	5.2%	0.88	1.22
Cessa	NYY	BOS	52.2	4.44	4.58	1.12		14.8%	5.1%	2.39	1.14
Lackey	CHC	PIT	394.1	3.06	3.85	1.14	57.9%	21.8%	6.4%	1.00	1.25
Vogelsong	PIT	CHC	203.1	4.74	4.71	1.47	52.6%	17.3%	9.8%	1.20	1.22
Gausman	BAL	TOR	272.1	3.77	3.72	1.24	37.5%	23.1%	6.3%	1.32	1.21
Sanchez	TOR	BAL	265.1	3.19	4.13	1.22		18.4%	9.0%	0.78	2.51
Verlander	DET	CLE	340.1	3.28	3.71	1.04	35.0%	24.7%	6.3%	1.08	0.72
Syndergaard	NYM	MIA	324	2.81	2.95	1.09		28.5%	5.5%	0.81	1.62
Koehler	MIA	NYM	353.1	4.02	4.69	1.40	52.6%	18.1%	9.7%	1.04	1.27
Eickhoff	PHI	ATL	231.1	3.50	4.04	1.16		20.7%	5.6%	1.21	1.00
Teheran	ATL	PHI	370.2	3.64	4.09	1.18	70.0%	21.1%	7.2%	1.17	1.01
Berrios	MIN	KCR	48.2	8.88	5.21	1.99		19.2%	12.9%	2.22	0.94
Kennedy	KCR	MIN	345.2	3.93	3.88	1.25	47.6%	23.9%	7.7%	1.61	0.83
Nelson	MIL	TEX	346.1	4.26	4.48	1.40		18.5%	9.6%	1.04	1.71
Griffin	TEX	MIL	113	4.78	4.51	1.29		21.5%	8.4%	2.07	0.61
Hernandez	SEA	HOU	339.1	3.63	3.90	1.23	81.0%	21.4%	8.4%	1.09	1.90
Fiers	HOU	SEA	337.2	4.05	4.10	1.30		20.9%	7.2%	1.31	1.06
Cobb	TBR	CWS	17.2	3.06	4.09	1.08	42.9%	16.9%	5.6%	1.02	2.00
Sale	CWS	TBR	419.1	3.22	2.97	1.05	64.3%	29.0%	5.1%	0.99	1.14
Stephenson	CIN	STL	25.1	4.97	4.93	1.38		19.1%	10.0%	2.13	0.70
Wainwright	STL	CIN	209.2	4.12	4.20	1.33	84.2%	18.5%	6.4%	0.73	1.58
Mengden	OAK	LAA	63.1	5.68	4.52	1.55		21.7%	10.3%	0.99	1.07
Nolasco	LAA	OAK	220	5.11	4.34	1.35	16.7%	18.1%	5.9%	1.19	1.14
De Leon	LAD	SDP	14.2	5.52	4.04	1.30		21.5%	6.2%	2.45	1.00
Clemens	SDP	LAD	54.2	4.94	5.34	1.65		15.9%	11.2%	1.98	1.00
Marquez	COL	SFG
Moore	SFG	COL	244.2	4.41	4.53	1.37		19.8%	8.8%	1.21	0.93

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. ARI) – It’s a loaded slate today, as some teams have lined up their aces for two more starts before the end of the regular season, and a Tuesday night start puts them right on track to pitch on the final game of the regular season with regular rest. That general rule of thumb might not work with teams that are playoff-bound, and postseason aces like Scherzer might be limited to just one full start remaining before the playoffs begin, so this could be his final full tuneup. The right-hander has struck out exactly eight batters in each of his last three turns and has tossed six consecutive quality starts, going more than the required 6.0 frames in each start. He has been cruising for the past month, as his last five games (and six of the past seven) came against the meager lineups of the Phillies, Braves and Marlins – each in the lowest one-fifth of baseball in terms of run-scoring – so it’s possible that Scherzer falls short of his lofty expectations when faced with an above-average offense like that of Arizona. That said, he is still the most enticing option on an otherwise loaded slate.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. TB) – Sale got mauled in his last start. In what should have been a gimme game against the Phillies, the Phils took Sale by storm, crossing the plate six times against Sale in just 4.0 innings of work. Prior to the outing, the southpaw had given up two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts, and the strikeouts that have been absent from his line all season came back with a vengeance, with 58 strikeouts over 50.0 innings in six turns heading into that fateful start – including 8.0 or more innings pitched in each start – but he could only muster five strikeouts in the abbreviated outing. It was probably just a bump in the road for a pitcher who is prone to the occasional blowup start – against weak offenses like the Phillies and Braves, no less – and his penchant for getting knocked around by inferior lineups adds a dose of intrigue for tonight’s start against the Rays.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at MIA) – Thor is the third pitcher on this list who received consideration for the All-In category, and the function of the tiers at the top of the list today have more to do with designating a top dog than it does creating a strict differentiation between the best option and the rest of the alternatives. The Marlins exploded for seven runs over the first three innings in their first game since the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, but they failed to score over the last five frames and Thor should cross his fingers that yesterday was a one-game anomaly for the Fish. Syndergaard is coming off his worst start in months, giving up five runs on eight hits and three walks in just 3.2 innings against the Braves, but he hasn’t faced the Marlins since early June and has only matched up with Miami twice this season; in those two games, he has a 1.93 ERA and a K:BB of 15:4 in 14.0 innings of work, though both of those turns (the ther was his second start of the year) are deep in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. CLE) – Verlander must have received a flux capacitor for Christmas, because he has turned back the clock to pitch like his halcyon days as a regular contender for the Cy Young Award. Verlander leads the American League with 234 strikeouts this season in 213.0 innings, combining an excellent K rate (9.9 K/9) with the increasingly-rare ability to go deep into ballgames to pile up the counting stats. He stands as the perfect example of why counting stats trump ratios when it comes to rostering a DFS pitcher, and though he has kept things relatively tame by throwing 7.0 innings or fewer in each of his last five games, his value is is personified by the 32.0 total frames and 45 strikeouts that he has compiled over that recent stretch. The only strike against his candidacy tonight is that Verlander is facing a Cleveland offense that is fourth in baseball with 4.86 runs scored per game; not that it stopped him from blanking the Indians over 7.0 innings of one-hit baseball just two starts ago.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. PHI) – Teheran has had a flair for the dramatic this season, at least in terms of performance. He has coughed up five or more runs in four of his last 12 starts, yet six other times this season the right-hander has pitched at least 6.0 scoreless innings in a ballgame. The last time that happened was three starts ago against these Phillies, as Teheran blanked the Phils on five hits and two walks (with seven strikeouts) over 6.0 innings, and it was his cleanest start since returning from the disabled list. Teheran maxed out at 120 pitches thrown in a one-hit shutout of the Mets back in mid-June, the fifth time that he had tossed at least 110 pitches in a game through his first 15 starts of the season, but Teheran hasn’t exceeded the 110 mark since the long outing and is more likely to throw 90 pitches in this game than be left out there for another 110.

David Price BOS (at NYY) – Price has been a regular in the Raise tier all season, but when the dust settles on his 2016 campaign it will be viewed as a large disappointment, calling into question whether he deserves the benefit of the doubt entering 2017. He has continued the shaky season over the past month with multiple runs allowed in six straight starts, though his stamina has helped to buffer the fantasy scores as he has thrown seven-plus frames in four of his last five turns and has gone at least six deep in nine in a row. He faced the Yankees two starts ago in what was Price’s worst game of the past two months, giving up five runs and nine hits in six innings of work, and the Yankees have actually scored five or more runs against Price in three of the four starts that he has made against them this season. All told, the southpaw has a 7.71 ERA and just 15 strikeouts in 23.1 frames against the Bronx Bombers this season. Based on that history, a reasonable argument can certainly be made that Price doesn’t even belong in this tier.

John Lackey CHC (vs. PIT) – Every Cubs pitcher receives a boost from pitching in front of their historically-efficient defense, a squad that’s so good that Lackey’s opposing BABiP of .257 this season is not an aberration that is doomed for regression – for the Cubbies, that’s just par for the course (their team BABiP is just .256, league average is .300 this season). The grizzled veteran has scored 15 or more points on DraftKings in each of his last eight starts (and 10 of his last 11) – though he hasn’t exceeded 30 points in any of those turns after breaching the 30-point barrier four times in his first dozen starts of the season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Koch					0.251	0.729
Scherzer	0.296	3.06	0.217	2.52	0.263	0.737	0.258	2.92	0.198	0.00	31.0%
Price	0.298	2.87	0.282	3.26	0.255	0.730	0.300	3.06	0.238	104.92	25.1%
Cessa	0.316	4.50	0.334	4.40	0.275	0.780	0.218	6.18	0.238	56.93	14.8%
Lackey	0.316	3.17	0.268	2.97	0.259	0.728	0.278	3.70	0.234	0.00	21.8%
Vogelsong	0.383	6.80	0.310	3.18	0.248	0.739	0.293	4.71	0.26	0.00	17.3%
Gausman	0.273	2.82	0.353	4.72	0.257	0.774	0.299	3.98	0.251	89.98	23.1%
Sanchez	0.329	3.78	0.240	2.63	0.260	0.773	0.263	3.95	0.226	59.78	18.4%
Clevinger	0.242	3.27	0.374	6.17	0.267	0.746	0.268	4.62	0.227	0.00	21.8%
Verlander	0.269	2.90	0.283	3.67	0.256	0.743	0.258	3.57	0.213	107.61	24.7%
Syndergaard	0.296	3.24	0.259	2.45	0.261	0.700	0.305	2.71	0.229	0.01	28.5%
Koehler	0.329	4.06	0.316	3.98	0.242	0.712	0.291	4.44	0.253	94.00	18.1%
Eickhoff	0.347	4.21	0.264	2.82	0.257	0.699	0.279	3.97	0.242	93.24	20.7%
Teheran	0.354	4.63	0.254	2.83	0.241	0.685	0.273	4.11	0.235	99.32	21.1%
Berrios	0.398	8.39	0.445	9.38	0.261	0.716	0.365	6.55	0.32	0.00	19.2%
Kennedy	0.322	3.95	0.332	3.92	0.247	0.717	0.282	4.59	0.242	99.40	23.9%
Nelson	0.361	5.17	0.298	3.54	0.260	0.749	0.294	4.54	0.254	93.43	18.5%
Griffin	0.410	5.96	0.279	3.68	0.250	0.714	0.266	5.55	0.247	0.00	21.5%
Hernandez	0.311	3.87	0.301	3.40	0.249	0.746	0.278	4.12	0.236	98.94	21.4%
Fiers	0.303	3.68	0.342	4.37	0.251	0.740	0.296	4.28	0.255	93.67	20.9%
Cobb			0.232	2.45	0.253	0.706	0.245	3.93	0.224	0.06	16.9%
Sale	0.265	3.27	0.281	3.21	0.258	0.752	0.297	3.03	0.225	108.15	29.0%
Stephenson	0.345	5.40	0.387	4.50	0.258	0.755	0.261	6.22	0.25	0.00	19.1%
Wainwright	0.334	4.48	0.308	3.87	0.253	0.718	0.321	3.51	0.271	88.62	18.5%
Mengden	0.335	5.68	0.338	5.68	0.256	0.720	0.328	4.20	0.266	0.00	21.7%
Nolasco	0.314	4.24	0.348	5.90	0.250	0.707	0.314	4.14	0.276	0.00	18.1%
De Leon					0.237	0.682	0.268	6.00	0.254	0.00	21.5%
Clemens	0.310	2.59	0.433	6.82	0.253	0.748	0.298	6.23	0.282	0.00	15.9%
Marquez					0.262	0.734
Moore	0.318	5.73	0.322	3.99	0.261	0.725	0.296	4.44	0.256	97.38	19.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at TOR) – Toronto is a tough opponent for any pitcher, but after back-to-back games against the high-powered lineup of the Red Sox, tonight’s outing might seem like a vacation. Gausman dominated the Sawx in the first of those games, blanking Boston over 8.0 innings with just four hits and one walk allowed to go with his six-pack of strikeouts in the game. It was part of a five-game run that saw Gausman go 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 32:7 K:BB in 33.0 innings, but the Red Sox got their vengeance in the rematch, scoring five runs off Gausman thanks to ten hits (including two homers) in 5.1 innings. He’s faced the Jays twice this season and they’ve knocked Gausman around a bit in those two games, with a composite ERA of 7.71, a mere 8:5 K:BB in 12.2 innings and four total homers allowed.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at HOU) – King Felix is coming off his second-best start of the season according to Game Score, scoring a 74 on the Bill James metric thanks to seven innings of two-hit, scoreless baseball against the Blue Jays. The only gave that scored higher for Felix was his second turn of the year, though his DFS score was just 20.75 on DraftKings – behind five of his August starts alone – thanks to a low count of four strikeouts in the game. It was the King’s second scoreless start in three turns, having blanked the A’s (his personal punching bag) in 6.0 innings a couple starts ago, but his other three of the last five games have been disastrous, with each involving six runs allowed in less than six frames, and he hasn’t whiffed more than four batters in a game in any of his last five turns.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at ATL)

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. MIN)

Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. BAL) – Sanchez might be running out of gas, an anticipated situation for Toronto yet one that has thrown the contending ballclub out of sorts. Sanchez has been the Jays’ best pitcher this season, but his past – filled with bullpen transitions and mechanical adjustments – has not prepared him for the season-long workload of a starting pitcher and he appears to have hit a wall. Sanchez pitched well in his last start, giving up one run on four hits to the Mariners, but his struggles are best exemplified by the poor 18:12 K:BB that he’s put up over the last four starts and 22.2 innings pitched – his K:BB was 132:46 in 156.1 innings over his first 24 starts this season. He has faced the Orioles four times this season, the last three of which have gone quite well, with a 1.42 ERA in 19.0 innings, but the 11:7 K:BB that he has posted over that stretch is a bit ominous, as is the six runs on ten hits (including four home runs) that he gave up to the O’s in his first start against them, back in mid-June.

Jose De Leon LAD (at SD)

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. CIN)

Alex Cobb TB (at CHW)

Matt Moore SF (vs. COL)

Robert Stephenson CIN (at STL)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. SEA)

Jose Berrios MIN (at KC)

A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. MIL)

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. NYM)

Mike Clevinger CLE (at DET)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at TEX)

Paul Clemens SD (vs. LAD)