Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 10th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-11 02:56:12

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Samardzija	SFG	MIA	355	4.74	4.25	1.27	60.0%	17.9%	5.7%	1.27	1.09
Phelps	MIA	SFG	170.2	3.80	3.97	1.28	42.9%	20.9%	7.8%	0.79	1.18
Hellickson	PHI	LAD	284	4.18	4.12	1.24		19.4%	6.2%	1.33	1.15
Kazmir	LAD	PHI	304.2	3.66	4.03	1.24	63.2%	21.9%	7.9%	1.18	1.13
Tomlin	CLE	WAS	191	3.53	3.94	1.05	23.1%	19.0%	3.1%	1.84	1.03
Gonzalez	WAS	CLE	304.1	3.93	3.92	1.37	46.7%	22.2%	8.8%	0.65	1.73
Jackson	SDP	PIT	91.2	3.83	4.77	1.30	15.0%	15.5%	9.6%	0.79	1.06
Vogelsong	PIT	SDP	162.2	4.43	4.51	1.44	52.6%	18.2%	9.7%	1.11	1.27
Happ	TOR	TBR	309	3.38	3.96	1.21	30.8%	21.1%	6.8%	0.90	1.20
Ray	ARI	NYM	248.2	4.16	3.76	1.42	33.3%	24.9%	8.8%	0.94	1.36
Colon	NYM	ARI	322	3.89	4.15	1.22	42.1%	16.3%	3.4%	1.17	1.22
Eovaldi	NYY	BOS	278	4.47	4.14	1.39	50.0%	18.2%	7.5%	1.07	1.79
Pomeranz	BOS	NYY	208.1	3.33	3.80	1.17	25.0%	25.4%	9.8%	0.91	1.23
Desclafani	CIN	STL	252	3.75	4.06	1.31	20.0%	19.8%	6.7%	0.86	1.27
Garcia	STL	CIN	259	3.23	3.64	1.19	28.6%	19.5%	6.8%	0.63	2.59
De La Rosa	COL	TEX	240	4.58	4.38	1.44	40.0%	19.6%	10.2%	1.09	1.72
Perez	TEX	COL	218	4.38	4.84	1.44	37.5%	12.3%	8.8%	0.66	2.27
Nolasco	LAA	CHC	168	5.57	4.30	1.42	16.7%	18.2%	5.9%	1.29	1.12
Hammel	CHC	LAA	291	3.46	3.77	1.13	47.4%	22.8%	6.5%	1.21	1.08
De La Cruz	ATL	MIL	29	3.41	5.43	1.28		11.2%	8.0%	1.24	1.06
Anderson	MIL	ATL	258.2	4.59	4.44	1.35	40.0%	17.9%	7.3%	1.32	1.09
Keuchel	HOU	MIN	380	3.29	3.21	1.13	50.0%	22.3%	6.3%	0.81	2.83
Santana	MIN	HOU	234.2	3.80	4.40	1.26	38.9%	17.9%	6.9%	1.00	1.13
Quintana	CWS	KCR	350.2	3.18	3.77	1.21	50.0%	21.2%	5.4%	0.80	1.27
Kennedy	KCR	CWS	295.2	4.17	3.74	1.25	47.6%	24.6%	7.6%	1.74	0.88
Gallardo	BAL	OAK	256.2	4.00	4.85	1.48	50.0%	15.4%	9.6%	0.88	1.50
Detwiler	OAK	BAL	63	7.14	5.34	1.98		14.2%	12.9%	1.57	1.35
Verlander	DET	SEA	286.2	3.45	3.72	1.07	35.0%	24.1%	6.3%	0.97	0.79
Hernandez	SEA	DET	290.1	3.53	3.71	1.21	81.0%	21.8%	7.9%	1.05	2.03

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Nobody qualifies for All-In today. Verlander has been knocking on the door for a couple weeks, especially with his turns falling on days with exceptionally weak slates of pitchers, but I’m not yet ready to answer.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Justin Verlander DET (at SEA) – Verlander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts, keeping the hits at six or fewer in every game over that stretch, keeping the walks at a minimum (one game over two free passes) and big strikeout totals in five of the seven starts. The whiffs have been on full display over the last two turns, with 20 strikeouts over 15.0 combined innings against nine hits and two walks allowed. The game before that, he only struck out five batters but held the Red Sox to one run over six frames, and in the two games prior to that he struck out another 19 hitters over 15.0 innings. He’s on the verge of All-In status, and in the case of today’s weak slate, one could make an argument that Verlander’s marginal value vaults him into All-In territory,

Jose Quintana CHW (at KC) – He might not have the glamorous name value or the reputation, but Quintana gets the job done. He has thrown quality starts in his last four turns and five of his last six. He occasionally spikes a big K count, such as the nine strikeouts that he notched two starts ago against the Twins, but he’s just as likely to post a score-killing K count, such as the mere three punchouts that he had in 7.1 innings in his last start. For what it’s worth, he struck out 10 Royals in eight full frames the last time that he faced KC, with three runs allowed on three solo homers. He faced the KC one other time this season, and Quintana gave up four earnies with just five strikeouts. Fair warning: the Royals have an OPS that is 48 points higher when facing southpaws as opposed to right-handed pitchers, while Quintana himself has an opponents’ OPS split that favors right-handed batters by 127 points this season, and he’s facing a lineup whose only true left-handed starters are Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer. He still ranks second, despite the caveats.

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. TB) – The Rays traded away a couple of their lefty mashers at the trade deadline, but they retain a number of players who take special aim at southpaws, including Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe and Steven Souza. The crazy thing about Happ’’s game is how he has suddenly become a strikeout maven, spiking 11 Ks twice in his last six starts, and tacking on another in which nine of the 17 outs that he registered were via the K. This is the same pitcher that went on a nine-start run from early May to mid-June in which he struck out no more than five hitters in any game, notching just 38 Ks in 57.0 innings. He has just been a different pitcher since calendar flipped to July, as he has given up more than one run in just one of his last six starts.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. NYY) – Pomeranz walked six batters in his last start, the southpaw’s most free passes in a game this season, but he last six frames to get the quality start, notching six strikeouts along the way. He has settled down a bit since that first-start disaster, but Pomeranz has yet to flash the type of performance that opened so many eyes in San Diego during the first half of the season. The Yankees have depleted by age, injury and the trade deadline, leaving behind a shell of an offense that is inviting for any player, but particularly a lefty who can neutralize the quasi-effective top of the Yankees’ order.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. DET) – My heart wants to rank King Felix higher on today’s list, but my head just won’t let me do it. He’s given up four or more runs in three of his four starts since returning from the disabled list, and the one exception was a short outing of just 5.0 innings with five walks allowed. Felix has simply not been his dominant self this season, but even in the multi-run starts of his recent past, Hernandez has logged six or more innings in three of the four games. At least the strikeouts have been there the last two starts, with 14 strikeouts across 13.0 innings (but eight total walks allowed), compared to his first two turns off the DL in which he struck out just five batters (but gave up 19 hits) in 12.2 innings pitched. Rostering Felix is like eating a box of chocolates: you don’t know what you’re gonna get. The good news is that his performance has been on the rise, with a steady increase of fantasy points in each of his last four starts, raising optimism that he’s starting to get back his mojo.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Samardzija	0.355	5.74	0.297	3.84	0.262	0.704	0.294	4.29	0.263	0.00	17.9%
Phelps	0.320	4.10	0.283	3.56	0.263	0.736	0.301	3.59	0.248	0.00	20.9%
Hellickson	0.339	4.17	0.310	4.20	0.248	0.734	0.282	4.30	0.25	0.00	19.4%
Kazmir	0.302	3.95	0.308	3.56	0.253	0.679	0.278	4.16	0.236	0.00	21.9%
Tomlin	0.258	2.63	0.343	4.32	0.248	0.725	0.246	4.71	0.238	0.01	19.0%
Gonzalez	0.277	3.29	0.320	4.12	0.267	0.735	0.323	3.40	0.256	0.00	22.2%
Jackson	0.283	2.50	0.312	4.85	0.260	0.726	0.264	4.20	0.236	0.00	15.5%
Vogelsong	0.384	7.27	0.294	2.31	0.239	0.685	0.295	4.48	0.257	0.00	18.2%
Snell	0.303	2.57	0.283	3.07	0.267	0.792	0.316	3.04	0.238	0.02	23.6%
Happ	0.296	3.31	0.300	3.40	0.259	0.760	0.294	3.59	0.246	0.00	21.1%
Ray	0.310	3.38	0.336	4.45	0.246	0.730	0.337	3.64	0.261	0.01	24.9%
Colon	0.318	3.69	0.307	4.09	0.262	0.732	0.298	3.95	0.27	0.00	16.3%
Eovaldi	0.354	4.62	0.296	4.35	0.273	0.773	0.311	4.11	0.27	0.00	18.2%
Pomeranz	0.234	1.74	0.294	4.00	0.257	0.733	0.261	3.62	0.207	0.00	25.4%
Desclafani	0.347	4.56	0.284	2.86	0.261	0.758	0.314	3.66	0.264	0.00	19.8%
Garcia	0.282	2.80	0.284	3.35	0.244	0.706	0.287	3.36	0.239	0.00	19.5%
De La Rosa	0.314	5.13	0.343	4.58	0.262	0.745	0.301	4.44	0.256	0.00	19.6%
Perez	0.242	1.99	0.344	5.00	0.259	0.719	0.300	4.21	0.273	0.00	12.3%
Nolasco	0.320	4.28	0.368	6.80	0.248	0.739	0.328	4.25	0.288	0.00	18.2%
Hammel	0.317	3.47	0.287	3.46	0.257	0.722	0.270	3.92	0.229	0.00	22.8%
De La Cruz	0.323	5.02	0.326	1.84	0.252	0.709	0.240	5.09	0.237	0.01	11.2%
Anderson	0.302	3.99	0.367	5.12	0.252	0.678	0.297	4.57	0.265	0.00	17.9%
Keuchel	0.225	2.68	0.294	3.47	0.258	0.743	0.283	3.28	0.233	0.00	22.3%
Santana	0.310	4.08	0.308	3.50	0.248	0.744	0.288	4.00	0.253	0.00	17.9%
Quintana	0.270	3.35	0.311	3.13	0.272	0.733	0.310	3.30	0.256	0.00	21.2%
Kennedy	0.341	4.44	0.327	3.92	0.250	0.701	0.283	4.70	0.243	0.00	24.6%
Gallardo	0.342	4.82	0.321	3.24	0.250	0.705	0.306	4.33	0.271	0.00	15.4%
Detwiler	0.289	3.16	0.477	9.88	0.238	0.677	0.356	6.20	0.323	0.00	14.2%
Verlander	0.268	2.92	0.286	3.99	0.249	0.739	0.265	3.47	0.218	0.01	24.1%
Hernandez	0.308	3.90	0.295	3.15	0.269	0.749	0.278	3.99	0.233	0.00	21.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Blake Snell TB (at TOR) – His pitch-count efficiency needs some work, but Snell has had the run prevention things down for the past month. Over his last five starts, Snell has compiled a 2.15 ERA and 36:12 K:BB in 29.1 innings, with just one home run allowed over the five starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of those five turns, after giving up three or more in each of his first four starts of the season. His six scoreless innings of one-hit baseball in Coors Field caught everyone’s attention, and we might just be scratching the surface of his appeal.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. CLE) – It takes a long time to earn back trust after a pitcher goes through a horrible run of starts, as Gio endured from the end of May through early July. He closed the month of July with a 4.81 ERA, but the southpaw has turned the corner since, with a 2.43 ERA over his last six starts. His other numbers aren’t quite as shiny though, and that same six-start stretch (five were quality starts, the other came one out short). It seems that there is always a caveat to starting Gio this season, whether too many runs or not enough strikeouts, but he has a good setup to minimize the damage in this one, as the Indians lose 40 points of Isolated Power against southpaws and Gio – when he’s on – specializes in keeping the ball in the yard, a combination which will put the onus on the Indians’ batters to go station to station.

Josh Tomlin CLE (at WAS) – He doesn’t walk anyone, this we know, but the cost of his short at-bats is a dented strikeout rate. The control of the strike zone has kept his K:BB sparkling while his run prevention has been all over the map, as Tomlin lacks the stuff to survive when his pitch command is off and he leaves a pitch that catches too much of the plate. He has given up a ridiculous 26 homers already this season (125.1 innings), including one or more homer allowed in all but two of his 20 starts, including He has a bit of a hopscotch pattern between good and bad starts this season, but if he happens to continue his on/off pattern then Tomlin should be in for a decent game. Too bad that’s completely arbitrary, and the Nationals have plenty of weapons to make Tomlin pay if he happens to leave too many pitcher over the plate.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. LAA) – On July 1, Hammel was hung out to dry, collecting 10 earned runs — including a ridiculous five home runs — on nine hits and two walks over 4.0 innings. He only struck out three batters in the contest, but Hammel has been stepping up his game ever since, allowing no more than two runs or five base hits in any of his last five starts. It’s the only game this season in which Hammel gave up more than four runs (earned or otherwise), and he has responded since that game with a 1.86 ERA and 26:8 K:BB over 29.0 innings of work. Just beware of the high-contact offense of the Angels, a team that has struck out more than 100 fewer times than any other team in baseball, effectively limited his upside in the K category.

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. CHW)

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at MIN)

Robbie Ray ARI (at NYM)

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. PHI)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at LAD)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at STL)

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. CIN) –

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. ARI)

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. HOU)

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (vs. SD)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. COL)

Joel De La Cruz ATL (at MIL)