Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 15th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-16 02:48:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Nova	NYY	COL	149.1	4.82	4.24	1.33	25.0%	15.7%	6.5%	1.33	1.80
Bettis	COL	NYY	187.1	4.85	4.14	1.44		18.4%	7.4%	1.10	1.75
Kershaw	LAD	ARI	333.1	1.94	2.18	0.81	66.7%	33.8%	3.8%	0.54	1.76
Corbin	ARI	LAD	163.2	4.18	3.79	1.30		19.7%	5.8%	1.15	1.75
Nicolino	MIA	SDP	125	4.32	5.42	1.34		9.0%	6.5%	0.86	1.22
Perdomo	SDP	MIA	36	9.50	4.29	2.28		16.4%	10.1%	1.75	2.45
Nelson	MIL	SFG	258.2	3.90	4.23	1.28		19.5%	9.0%	1.04	1.65
Cueto	SFG	MIL	307.2	3.04	3.74	1.09	76.2%	20.7%	5.3%	0.70	1.34
Strasburg	WAS	CHC	213.1	3.29	2.79	1.09	52.4%	30.6%	5.7%	0.97	1.25
Estrada	TOR	PHI	261.2	2.96	4.57	1.03	27.8%	19.4%	8.4%	1.14	0.65
Hellickson	PHI	TOR	220.2	4.53	4.01	1.31		20.3%	6.7%	1.47	1.19
Wilson	BAL	BOS	95	4.26	4.97	1.32		10.7%	6.5%	0.76	1.50
Wright	BOS	BAL	154.2	3.03	4.48	1.21		19.0%	9.3%	0.87	1.14
Desclafani	CIN	ATL	190.2	3.97	4.14	1.36	20.0%	18.8%	7.1%	0.85	1.36
Norris	ATL	CIN	136	5.96	4.36	1.54	26.7%	18.1%	9.0%	1.39	1.44
Locke	PIT	NYM	240.1	4.76	4.52	1.42	66.7%	15.9%	8.3%	0.97	1.74
Syndergaard	NYM	PIT	226.2	2.82	2.77	1.03		28.8%	4.8%	0.91	1.57
Karns	SEA	TBR	213	3.80	4.02	1.33		23.4%	9.6%	1.06	1.12
Smyly	TBR	SEA	137.2	4.05	3.44	1.21	50.0%	26.9%	6.8%	1.63	0.71
McHugh	HOU	STL	274.1	4.23	3.90	1.33	42.9%	20.3%	6.1%	0.95	1.26
Wainwright	STL	HOU	105.2	4.26	4.18	1.26	84.2%	16.9%	5.2%	0.68	1.51
Pelfrey	DET	CWS	230	4.38	4.78	1.54		11.9%	7.2%	0.82	1.89
Sale	CWS	DET	299.2	3.24	2.82	1.06	64.3%	29.7%	5.0%	0.99	1.13
Kluber	CLE	KCR	310.2	3.53	3.09	1.04	57.1%	26.8%	5.2%	0.84	1.26
Kennedy	KCR	CLE	239.1	4.21	3.78	1.28	47.6%	23.7%	7.6%	1.69	0.92
Duffey	MIN	LAA	110.1	4.16	3.76	1.40		21.1%	6.5%	0.98	1.67
Santiago	LAA	MIN	247.2	4.14	4.50	1.30	16.7%	20.6%	9.3%	1.56	0.64
Holland	TEX	OAK	123.1	4.89	4.84	1.31		14.8%	7.1%	1.46	0.99
Gray	OAK	TEX	268.2	3.32	3.95	1.18	60.0%	19.9%	7.7%	0.87	1.76

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at ARI) – The question is: why would you not roster Kershaw every time he pitches? Sure, the price is crazy high, but he more than returns the value on your investment seemingly each time out. It is a loaded slate today with several premium arms, but those w no choose to go another direction are essentially hoping that this is the one start in 15 where Kersh doesn’t dominate. Zig at your own risk.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. PIT) – Thor deserves a place among the All-In elite even if he hasn’t yet reached the immortal status of Kershaw; he is also the best option among pitchers who are not on the early slate. His last start was actually somewhat modest, at least by his standards, with two earned runs and five Ks against nine baserunners in 6.0 frames against these same Pirates, but such an elevated floor is built into the price tag, as the 14.10 points (DraftKings) was his second lowest total in a start this season, that is if you don’t count the game in which he was ejected early for throwing around Chase Utley. With a K:BB ratio of 95:12 in 76.2 innings and an even 2.00 ERA, Thor is perhaps the second-most efficient arm in the game following Kershaw.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. MIL) – the memory of Cueto’s second-half struggles from last season inns fading further into the rearview mirror, and with each run-squelching start the right-handed reignites the fires of his value. Cueto will have a chance to pile up the Ks against the NL strikeout-leading lineup of the Brewers, and the pitcher-friendly dimensions of ATT Park will help to keep the Milwaukee sluggers like Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter at bay. He had a weird, five-walk start against the Cards two turns ago, but otherwise he has given away two or fewer free passes in every other start this season. He has given up just three home runs on the season and hasn’t given up more than two runs in any game since his first turn of May. He might not offer the flash of some of the names that follow, but Cueto’s remarkable consistency earns him a higher ranking than all but the very best pitchers in the game.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. CHC) – Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. Stras is marching his way toward NL Cy Young contention, but today he is tasked with quieting the best offense in baseball. Strasburg is all about the strikeouts, reaching double-digit whiffs in five of his last seven ballgames, and he has transformed his pitch-count efficiency to be an asset, clearing 6.0 innings pitched in 12 of his 13 starts this season. His run prevention has been solid if unspectacular on a game-by-game basis, posting just one start this season with zero runs allowed yet keeping the earned runs at three or less in 10 of his 13 starts, with the other three games each involving four opposing runners crossing the plate. The latter stat might get blown up today if the Cubbies catch fire, so it will be up to Strasburg to offset any damage by keeping free runners off the basepaths and piling up the strikeouts against the Cubs.

Corey Kluber CLE (at KC) – with the exception of a K rate that is down a full strikeout per nine from last season, Kluber’s numbers are right in line with his stats from 2015, limiting the walks and homers allowed while keeping the hit rate hinder eight safeties per nine innings. The only issue is that last season was largely viewed as a disappointment due to an ERA in the mid-threes and a horrible won-loss record. Wins and losses might be dubious at best, but the W still counts for fantasy points in DFS, and the diminished K rate only further dents his value. Facing the contact-heavy Royals won’t help him to boost the strikeouts, and his inability to shake the occasional disaster start from his resume ups the risk factor of rostering Kluber today. That said, the upside is still enormous, and he could be a tremendous value of the price is right.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. DET) – Sale has been off his game lately, casting doubt as to whether his low-strikeout approach is as effective as first perceived. He is still averaging just under a strikeout per inning, but the K count is a disappointment from fantasy fanatics who were expecting something closer to last season’s 11.8 K/9, and his current rate of 8.5 K/9 would be a career-low if over a full season. He has coughed up four or more runs in three of his last four starts and hasn’t recorded double-digit strikeouts in a game yet this season. One of the three clunkers was against these Tigers just two starts ago, and in between he coughed up three home runs to the Royals, the club with the lowest homer count in the American League.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Nova	0.361	5.24	0.319	4.46	0.271	0.779	0.288	4.75	0.266	0.01	15.7%
Bettis	0.319	4.68	0.362	5.01	0.245	0.729	0.318	4.20	0.275	0.01	18.4%
Kershaw	0.209	1.89	0.222	1.96	0.267	0.764	0.269	1.86	0.186	0.01	33.8%
Corbin	0.272	2.50	0.342	4.65	0.253	0.729	0.310	3.94	0.267	0.01	19.7%
Nicolino	0.307	5.53	0.339	3.98	0.246	0.694	0.288	4.56	0.277	0.00	9.0%
Perdomo	0.403	8.68	0.479	10.38	0.259	0.695	0.431	5.67	0.375	0.00	16.4%
Nelson	0.360	5.16	0.275	2.91	0.261	0.733	0.279	4.36	0.24	0.00	19.5%
Cueto	0.267	2.47	0.293	3.54	0.254	0.712	0.279	3.22	0.232	0.00	20.7%
Hammel	0.309	2.88	0.290	3.70	0.247	0.720	0.278	3.68	0.23	0.01	23.5%
Strasburg	0.251	2.63	0.305	3.99	0.249	0.740	0.306	2.79	0.226	0.01	30.6%
Estrada	0.270	2.99	0.266	2.91	0.242	0.676	0.208	4.29	0.191	0.00	19.4%
Hellickson	0.360	4.67	0.322	4.43	0.259	0.776	0.293	4.47	0.258	0.01	20.3%
Wilson	0.308	3.48	0.329	5.19	0.272	0.768	0.282	4.19	0.265	0.01	10.7%
Wright	0.284	3.06	0.285	3.00	0.258	0.769	0.253	4.05	0.219	0.01	19.0%
Desclafani	0.344	4.68	0.303	3.18	0.252	0.672	0.319	3.76	0.27	0.01	18.8%
Norris	0.387	6.35	0.337	5.58	0.245	0.703	0.319	4.86	0.281	0.00	18.1%
Locke	0.336	5.68	0.328	4.47	0.240	0.711	0.303	4.34	0.269	0.00	15.9%
Syndergaard	0.291	3.22	0.250	2.47	0.265	0.738	0.293	2.76	0.223	0.01	28.8%
Karns	0.303	3.01	0.317	4.66	0.244	0.709	0.296	3.96	0.241	0.01	23.4%
Smyly	0.274	2.61	0.325	4.47	0.259	0.733	0.290	4.14	0.239	0.01	26.9%
McHugh	0.315	4.49	0.327	3.99	0.265	0.761	0.322	3.64	0.27	0.00	20.3%
Wainwright	0.299	4.34	0.318	4.20	0.246	0.741	0.305	3.45	0.264	0.01	16.9%
Pelfrey	0.373	4.92	0.326	3.91	0.249	0.695	0.334	4.39	0.306	0.00	11.9%
Sale	0.276	3.40	0.279	3.22	0.273	0.785	0.302	2.93	0.227	0.01	29.7%
Kluber	0.314	3.96	0.237	3.14	0.267	0.730	0.289	2.95	0.224	0.01	26.8%
Kennedy	0.350	4.49	0.330	3.95	0.251	0.724	0.290	4.69	0.249	0.01	23.7%
Duffey	0.330	3.10	0.337	5.02	0.253	0.715	0.336	3.62	0.278	0.01	21.1%
Santiago	0.288	3.02	0.334	4.52	0.255	0.725	0.258	4.97	0.232	0.00	20.6%
Holland	0.281	3.47	0.348	5.22	0.253	0.713	0.274	5.03	0.261	0.01	14.8%
Gray	0.275	2.65	0.292	4.00	0.259	0.740	0.267	3.74	0.228	0.00	19.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Marco Estrada TOR (at PHI) – He might not have the impressive pedigree of the pitchers above him on the list, but Estrada has quietly been a revelation for Toronto this season, emerging as their best starter with incredibly consistent performance despite pitching in the hell of the AL East. He has pitched 6.0 or more innings in 11 of 12 starts this season, recording quality starts in nine of those turns, and is coming off a pair of impressive outings in which he held the Red Sox and Orioles to a combined five runs over 14.0 innings of work. He walks more batters than you’d like to see, including three or more free passes in four straight games (and five of six), and his success has been buoyed by an exceptionally low hit rate of just 5.4 H/9, a mark which leads the AL. The hit rate is likely unsustainable, but facing the Phillies could give the rate a prolonged stay of execution.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. HOU) – After a terrible start to the season that saw his ERA inflated to 6.80 as late as mid-May, A&W has righted the ship with quality starts in four of his last five contests. The exception was a four-run, three-homer start against the Nats, but those were the only bombs that Waino has surrendered over his last five starts and he still managed to go 7.0 frames in that game. The pitch efficiency is still lagging behind his previous standards, as the right-handed has yet to exceed 7.0 innings pitched in any one game this season, but the Cardinals have to be satisfied that they don’t have to cover their eyes anymore when Wainwright pitches.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. TEX) – The month of May was a nightmare for Gray, who went on the DL near the end of the month with a 6.19 ERA attached to his name. He has been solid since returning, though, with just three runs and two total walks allowed in 12.2 innings against the Astros and Reds. The strikeouts have been modest with just nine whiffs through the two games, but bat-missing was never Gray’s forte, and the A’s are hoping that his former prowess with run prevention continues to show itself in time for the trade deadline.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. WAS) – He has been quietly effective this season, with a 2.36 ERA for the campaign, but the reliance on a low hit rate and modest K count leaves open the possibility that Hammel will get bitten by regression in the near future, a prospect that has to frighten a Cubs nation that has seen the Hammel and Hyde act in previous seasons.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at ATL) – So far so good for the Reds nominal ace, who got a late start to the season due to injury but limited the A’s to one run over six innings in his first start of the season. This time around he gets the Braves, another opportunity to pad his stats before the real tests begin to hit him.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at SF) – This season, Nelson has lopped two-thirds of a run off the best ERA of ha career, but there’s nothing in his peripheral stats to support such improvement; in fact, his FIP is much higher than any full season of his career to date. He is giving up more walks and homers while striking out his typical seven or so batters per nine, and his six-run disaster at the hands of the Phillies two starts ago may have been a harbinger of things to come.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. SEA) – Smyly has been on a horrific run, with four or more runs given up in each of his last three starts – including an eight-spot in four innings against the Royals two turns ago, and his ERA now stands at 4.94 for the season. Strikeouts were his saving grace early in the season, but Smyly hasn’t whiffed more than seven batters in a game since April. That sound you hear is the other shoe dropping.

Nate Karns SEA (at TB)

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. CLE)

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. LAD)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at SD)

Collin McHugh HOU (at STL)

Steven Wright BOS (vs. BAL)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at BOS)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. TOR)

Derek Holland TEX (at OAK)

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. MIN)

Bud Norris ATL (vs. CIN)

Jeff Locke PIT (at NYM)