Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 17th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers | HOU | MIA | 129.1 | 3.13 | 3.32 | 1.38 | 42.86% | 29.7% | 10.6% | 0.70 | 58.4% |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | CLE | 71.1 | 5.17 | 4.49 | 1.43 | 20.00% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 1.39 | 49.8% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | ARI | 132.2 | 5.09 | 4.54 | 1.45 | 35.29% | 17.7% | 7.5% | 1.22 | 42.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 204.2 | 1.89 | 2.57 | 0.79 | 80.95% | 30.2% | 2.5% | 0.66 | 49.5% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | PIT | 120.2 | 3.95 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 36.84% | 20.7% | 6.4% | 1.04 | 41.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | DET | 176 | 5.57 | 4.87 | 1.55 | 24.00% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 1.23 | 48.7% |
| Joseph Biagini | TOR | ATL | |||||||||
| Scott Feldman | CIN | CHC | 124.2 | 3.83 | 4.27 | 1.32 | 20.00% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 1.08 | 47.4% |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | TEX | 95.1 | 4.63 | 5.13 | 1.22 | 36.36% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 1.51 | 39.8% |
| German Marquez | COL | MIN | 44.2 | 5.04 | 4.11 | 1.46 | 33.33% | 17.9% | 7.0% | 0.81 | 51.0% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | STL | 272.1 | 3.3 | 3.72 | 1.07 | 45.45% | 21.8% | 3.7% | 1.06 | 42.3% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | KCR | 217 | 4.52 | 3.25 | 1.28 | 28.13% | 27.9% | 6.4% | 1.45 | 46.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | LAA | 179.2 | 3.76 | 4.71 | 1.28 | 39.13% | 16.2% | 6.4% | 0.85 | 39.9% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | SEA | 89 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 1.42 | 22.22% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 0.91 | 47.7% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | SDP | 125.1 | 4.16 | 4.47 | 1.44 | 26.32% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 1.01 | 53.4% |
| Jose Urena | MIA | HOU | 111 | 5.11 | 4.71 | 1.37 | 33.33% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 1.14 | 46.7% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | TBR | 212.1 | 4.66 | 4.15 | 1.22 | 44.83% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 1.70 | 44.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | NYM | 201 | 4.93 | 4.35 | 1.52 | 25.00% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.34 | 52.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | LAD | 271.2 | 3.05 | 3.69 | 1.12 | 62.50% | 22.2% | 5.5% | 0.76 | 48.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | WAS | 166 | 3.63 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 38.10% | 20.5% | 6.5% | 0.76 | 47.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | BAL | 205 | 2.94 | 3.96 | 1.09 | 50.00% | 20.9% | 6.6% | 0.88 | 49.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | TOR | 159 | 4.25 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 31.82% | 20.9% | 6.8% | 1.36 | 41.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | CIN | 229.2 | 2.35 | 3.79 | 1.02 | 63.33% | 22.5% | 6.6% | 0.78 | 49.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | PHI | 165.1 | 4.68 | 4.96 | 1.49 | 22.22% | 17.7% | 11.0% | 1.20 | 46.7% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | COL | 235.1 | 2.94 | 4.35 | 1.13 | 46.67% | 20.0% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 43.0% |
| Mike Leake | STL | BOS | 223 | 4.12 | 3.92 | 1.25 | 40.00% | 16.7% | 4.3% | 0.93 | 53.8% |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | NYY | 56.2 | 1.27 | 3.69 | 0.92 | 23.0% | 5.1% | 0.32 | 39.0% | |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | CHW | 204 | 4.01 | 3.97 | 1.23 | 51.85% | 21.6% | 5.7% | 1.19 | 40.0% |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | OAK | 33.1 | 7.29 | 4.29 | 1.65 | 16.0% | 5.1% | 2.16 | 41.0% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | MIL | 189.2 | 4.89 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 27.27% | 18.6% | 8.6% | 1.00 | 49.2% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Nope. There isn’t a pitcher on the slate that I would trust with a whole stack of chips. Not even close, really.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Michael Pineda NYY (at KC, $10100) – Ho boy, it’s come to this. The best option available on the night slate (11 games) is the pitcher affectionately known as the “Pinata” due to his frequent beat downs by wooden sticks. To take matters deeper into the neighborhood of sketch, Pineda costs an eye-popping $10k, shrinking his profit margin. But here we are, and Pineda has earned at least some respect with his performance this season, with a 3.26 ERA and an incredible 55:6 K:BB over 41.1 innings, garnering enough points on average to justify the $10k price tag. He has registered at least six strikeouts in each of his seven starts, including a rough debut outing in which he only lasted 3.2 innings, and spiked 11 Ks in his second game of the year. Throw in a Kansas City opponent that struggles hitting the ball and he’s certainly in play as one of the top options of the night.
Rick Porcello BOS (at STL, $9000) – I have been a Porcello detractor for awhile, but the guy logs innings, gets the run support to encourage W’s and has even turned up the dial on his K rate. The Cardinals have carried a respectable offense thus far, ranking seventh in baseball in team on-base percentage (.336) and 11th in slugging (.421), but it might be hard to respect a lineup that has been known to bat Yadier Molina in the cleanup spot and doesn’t get the benefit of a DH. Six of his seven turns this season have been quality starts, though the one exception was an eight-run blowup over 4.0 innings against the Rays in mid-April. Add it all up, and we get the recipe for a strong DFS score regardless of the eventual K count, albeit one with a potentially limited ceiling.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. CIN, $9100) – Hendricks has cleaned up his act over the last four starts, posting a 1.52 ERA with a 21:7 K:BB over 23.2 innings, including a solid 6.1 innings with two earned runs allowed at Coors Field in his last turn. His workload is very consistent and tuned to the parameters of a quality start, as he has gone 5.0-to-6.1 innings in every start and has been saddled with an extremely narrow range of 91-to-96 pitches in each turn. The K rate is a tick below last season while the walk rate has spiked thus far in 2017, with Hendricks giving away free passes to 9.8 percent of opposing batters after never having posted a rate higher than 5.9 percent in any season of his career.
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. COL, $9500) – This has to be some kind of a nightmare, and for those of us who dream in the language of DFS, the thought of paying through the nose to acquire the likes of Pineda, Porcello, Hendricks or Ervin Santana is at least mildly nauseating (to put it politely). But the options are just that bad and Big Erv has been just that good. The right-hander is allowing a ridiculously-low rate of 3.8 hits per nine innings, easily the lowest mark among MLB starters so far this season, on the heels of a stupidly-low BABiP of just .130. Obviously that number is going to regress heavily upward, but the question remains as to how far upward it will climb and the extent to which Santana’s baseline value ratchets upward as a result of his performance. The Rockies might test him, but they are dealing with an injured Trevor Story, a sockless Carlos Gonzalez and the difficulty of playing away from their comforting home, so there are additional elements to the saga of Ervin Santana.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers | HOU | MIA | 0.316 | 3.1 | 0.306 | 3.16 | 0.248 | 3.32 | 0.352 | 2.97 |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | CLE | 0.415 | 8 | 0.298 | 3.45 | 0.284 | 4.49 | 0.307 | 4.67 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | ARI | 0.352 | 5.51 | 0.333 | 4.66 | 0.282 | 4.54 | 0.321 | 4.37 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 0.196 | 1.23 | 0.23 | 2.11 | 0.192 | 2.57 | 0.257 | 2.13 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | PIT | 0.37 | 4.53 | 0.275 | 3.49 | 0.268 | 4.07 | 0.319 | 3.83 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | DET | 0.385 | 6.56 | 0.306 | 4.88 | 0.262 | 4.87 | 0.303 | 4.82 |
| Joseph Biagini | TOR | ATL | ||||||||
| Scott Feldman | CIN | CHC | 0.343 | 3.44 | 0.312 | 4.08 | 0.262 | 4.27 | 0.294 | 4.18 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | TEX | 0.341 | 6.04 | 0.309 | 3.21 | 0.252 | 5.13 | 0.252 | 5.1 |
| German Marquez | COL | MIN | 0.33 | 5.24 | 0.368 | 4.84 | 0.277 | 4.11 | 0.326 | 3.77 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | STL | 0.265 | 2.76 | 0.306 | 3.91 | 0.237 | 3.72 | 0.279 | 3.48 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | KCR | 0.329 | 3.54 | 0.323 | 5.31 | 0.256 | 3.25 | 0.327 | 3.76 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | LAA | 0.308 | 2.77 | 0.306 | 4.77 | 0.257 | 4.71 | 0.29 | 3.91 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | SEA | 0.352 | 6.1 | 0.289 | 3.2 | 0.262 | 4.95 | 0.291 | 4.35 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | SDP | 0.363 | 4.94 | 0.3 | 3.49 | 0.274 | 4.47 | 0.309 | 4.21 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | HOU | 0.327 | 5.53 | 0.328 | 4.67 | 0.264 | 4.71 | 0.288 | 4.62 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | TBR | 0.283 | 3.71 | 0.362 | 5.46 | 0.273 | 4.15 | 0.288 | 4.6 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | NYM | 0.306 | 4.5 | 0.359 | 5.07 | 0.277 | 4.35 | 0.317 | 4.68 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | LAD | 0.295 | 2.63 | 0.27 | 3.43 | 0.237 | 3.69 | 0.29 | 3.19 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | WAS | 0.35 | 4.12 | 0.284 | 3.24 | 0.266 | 4.01 | 0.323 | 3.4 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | BAL | 0.255 | 2.26 | 0.304 | 3.76 | 0.221 | 3.96 | 0.261 | 3.68 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | TOR | 0.334 | 4.25 | 0.322 | 4.24 | 0.258 | 4.13 | 0.299 | 4.31 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | CIN | 0.271 | 1.94 | 0.253 | 2.66 | 0.208 | 3.79 | 0.251 | 3.38 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | PHI | 0.363 | 4.61 | 0.338 | 4.75 | 0.261 | 4.96 | 0.297 | 4.9 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | COL | 0.274 | 2.73 | 0.284 | 3.16 | 0.219 | 4.35 | 0.253 | 3.89 |
| Mike Leake | STL | BOS | 0.309 | 4.05 | 0.311 | 4.17 | 0.267 | 3.92 | 0.303 | 3.68 |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | NYY | 0.299 | 0.96 | 0.215 | 1.33 | 0.2 | 3.69 | 0.255 | 2.37 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | CHW | 0.307 | 4.35 | 0.321 | 3.64 | 0.254 | 3.97 | 0.3 | 3.9 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | OAK | 0.408 | 6.97 | 0.398 | 7.43 | 0.32 | 0.342 | 5.54 | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | MIL | 5.9 | 0.307 | 3.91 | 0.265 | 0.31 | 4.16 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. WAS, $8600) – Cole might be the most talented pitcher on tonight’s slate, but facing the Big Nats Machine knocks him down to the Call list. It seems the fantasy community has somewhat overlooked the fact that Cole has returned to the stellar rate stats of 2015, including a 47:10 K:BB in 50.0 innings this season, but a sudden spike in home runs has concealed the impact on run prevention. For those in season leagues, the time to acquire him will likely be just after tonight’s game against the Nats, though if he carves his way through the Washington lineup then the trade-cost could skyrocket. He’s an interesting play in large tournaments, but the risk is too high for cash games.
Mike Leake STL (vs. BOS, $7600) – Leake just keeps spinning gems, with his run of quality starts to begin the season now at seven straight and with a 1.94 ERA that leads the National League. The strikeouts haven’t been there, with just 32 punchouts in 46.1 innings this season, but Leake is more about limiting the walks and the mistakes, and to that end he has been very successful: 1.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. He’s only given up three homers all season, but all three bombs have come in his last two games, and now he faces a Boston ballclub that couldn’t hit the ball out of a paper bag for the first few weeks of the season but which has caught fire more recently.
Michael Fulmer DET (vs. BAL, $11200) – I like Fulmer just fine in a vacuum, but the price is way too high for a low-K pitcher with a limited ceiling who is facing a high-powered opponent that specializes in mashing right-handed pitchers. That said, he has tossed seven quality starts in a row, has been stretched out as far as 114 pitches in a single game, and even managed a nine-strikeout game two starts ago (albeit over 8.0 innings against Oakland). He has a limited ceiling of DFS points due to the probability of a low K-count and the possibility of crooked numbers on the scoreboard, as the O’s threaten to break his string of quality starts.
Jesse Hahn OAK (at SEA, $6700) – Hahn is a value pick, a worthy gamble on a slate full of landmines that won’t cut too deeply into the budget. He’s been great so far this season, quietly putting up a 2.74 ERA, though his peripherals indicate that he has been getting by with smoke and mirrors, with too many walks (3.4 BB/9), not enough strikeouts (7.4 K/9) and an unsustainable homer rate, with just one longball surrendered in 42.2 innings this season (0.2 HR/9). Regression is going to hit hard, but the Mariners are playing with half a deck, considering that Robinson Cano and Mitch Haniger are both nursing injuries, though Kyle Seager might be emerging from a season-long funk with two homers in the last two games.
Jason Vargas KC (vs. NYY, $8400)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. CHW, $8800)
Andrew Cashner (vs. PHI, $7500)
Matt Garza MIL (at SD, $8200)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. TOR, $7800)
Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at LAA, $7700)
Jhoulys Chacin SD (vs. MIL, $7100)
Joe Biagini TOR (at ATL, $6000)
Zach Eflin PHI (at TEX, $6100)
German Marquez COL (at MIN, $6900)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jacob Turner WAS (at PIT, $6600) – Turner is taking a break from his usual relief duties to make a spot-start for the Nats, and as such he’ll have a very limited pitch count that obliterate any potential ceiling. It also represents a decent stacking opportunity considering the dumpster fire that is the Nats’ bullpen; too bad the Pirates are lacking two-thirds of the outfield (if Polanco is still out) and bring an unimpressive array of bats to stack tonight.
Christian Bergman SEA (vs. OAK, $5500)
Scott Feldman CIN (at CHC, $7200)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at DET, $6800) – I’m too much of a pitching mechanics junkie to look the other way when Ubaldo pitches, as I see a pitcher whose constant struggles are directly tied to his haphazard, inefficient delivery. So he gets a reserved seat in the Fold section whenever he pitches, only to come out to sniff the Call list on those rare occasions in which the stars align. Facing the Tigers with a newly-added (and invigorated) J.D. Martinez is not one of those times. Stack away.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window