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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 11th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-12 03:11:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Atlanta Hawks
charlottenba Vegas Total 206.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Brian Roberts Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7 Adj. DvP 19 22 19 18 14
DRPM -2.60 -1.18 1.90 3.25 3.18 DRPM -0.70 -0.27 2.27 -0.07 3.22

Charlotte Hornets

Welcome to the second to last NBA Grind Down of the regular season. Tonight is going to be interesting as there is just one game with any playoff implications whatsoever. That’s this Hornets/Hawks game. The rest of tonight’s five games feature teams that have ruled out key players for rest or injury.

Having been eliminated from the playoffs, the Hornets have nothing to play for tonight. The Hornets and Suns are the only two teams that play their final game of the season tonight. The other 28 teams in the league will all be in action tomorrow. The Hornets have already ruled out Kemba Walker for this game while Marco Belinelli is questionable. The Hornets are a 7.5-point underdog here. The Hawks need to win one of their final two games in order to lock in the fifth seed in the East. They are likely to attempt that tonight and then rest their starters for tomorrow’s road game at Indiana.

Even on a five-game slate, there aren’t any Hornets that stand out as elite plays. Brian Roberts will likely start in place of Kemba Walker but he’s not a better punt play than Tyler Ennis or any of the other value PG options. Not even against a Hawks team that is 24th against PG. The closest thing to an elite play here is Nicolas Batum. He’s topped 37 fantasy points in each of the last three games. Batum gets a 2.2% increase in usage and averages an additional 5.23 fantasy points per 36 minutes when Kemba Walker is off the court.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Brian Roberts $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.69 9.2 3.7 6.3 1.8 20.0% 0.5% 24 -2.60
Nicolas Batum $6,600 $7,000 $13,200 0.94 34.4 0.6 32.2 3.2 24.2% 0.3% 25 -1.18
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,300 $4,500 $8,800 0.79 29.1 -0.3 22.9 -1.2 14.2% -0.5% 28 1.90
Marvin Williams $5,900 $5,900 $11,600 0.77 30.5 0.3 23.5 -1.9 15.8% -2.8% 8 3.25
Cody Zeller $5,000 $4,900 $9,700 0.85 27.9 2.1 23.6 1.9 15.7% -1.8% 7 3.18
Frank Kaminsky $5,100 $4,900 $9,800 0.83 26.1 -0.5 21.7 0.9 21.5% -0.9% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum

Atlanta Hawks

Whether we target the Hawks tonight depends on their motivation. The Hawks currently occupy the fifth seed in the East. They are a half-game ahead of Milwaukee. The Hawks just need to win one of their final two games to lock in their seed and setup an opening round series against Washington. If they lose both games, the Bucks can pass them setting the Hawks up for an opening round series against Toronto. As of yesterday, the Hawks were undecided on how to handle rest in the final two games. The Vegas line here of Atlanta +7.5 says the Hawks will attempt to win this game and then rest players tomorrow in Indiana.

Given that Dennis Schroder is the only PG playing in a must-win game, he stands out as one of the best options on the board. Brian Roberts is not a plus defender as he owns a -0.70 Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM). Schroder is averaging 31.3 FPPG over the past five games and has fallen below 28 fantasy points just once in the past nine games.

The other option that stands out here is Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s playing great basketball right now averaging 31.2 FPPG over the past five games. Even though Nicolas Batum is regarded as a strong defender, that hasn’t manifest itself in Charlotte’s DVP ranking of 22nd against SG this season. Hardaway has played at least 33 minutes in eight of the last 10 games. He should be in line for heavy minutes again tonight in a must-win game.

With this being the lowest over/under on the board, I wouldn’t recommend loading up on Hawks tonight but you can also make the case for Kent Bazemore assuming that he plays and Sefolosha sits. I would need to see both of those things come true though. Bazemore has at least 20 fantasy points in four of the last five games he’s played. He’s not a better option than Jordan Crawford and several other value SGs though.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,200 $7,600 $13,900 0.95 31.6 5.6 30.2 1.7 30.4% -1.8% 19 -0.70
Tim Hardaway $5,800 $6,000 $11,900 0.79 27.2 7.9 21.6 6.8 22.6% -1.0% 22 -0.27
Taurean Prince $4,400 $4,900 $9,800 0.71 16.2 16.4 11.5 8.6 17.2% 1.0% 19 2.27
Paul Millsap $7,500 $7,100 $13,300 1.03 34.1 -6.5 35.1 -0.5 24.8% 7.2% 18 -0.07
Dwight Howard $7,200 $7,000 $13,300 1.10 29.9 0.2 33.0 -1.8 18.4% 2.6% 14 3.22
Ersan Ilyasova $5,000 $5,100 $10,100 0.89 26.4 1.4 23.4 -2.9 21.5% -2.9% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Minnesota Timberwolves
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 215.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 13 16 7 4 19 Adj. DvP 5 19 14 12 11
DRPM 0.75 -0.22 -2.75 3.73 -1.48 DRPM -0.41 1.09 2.22 1.89 1.29

Oklahoma City Thunder

This game is one of many that is essentially meaningless in the standings. The Thunder are locked into the sixth seed in the West and the Timberwolves have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Both teams play again tomorrow night and have to travel to do so. The Thunder will head back to Oklahoma City while the Timberwolves travel to Houston. For that reason, the Thunder have already ruled out Russell Westbrook, Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott and Andre Roberson.

The Thunder off some interesting options tonight. By my count they have 10 players available. I have to assume they’ll take it easy with their core veterans in Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams. They certainly couldn’t afford to lose either going into a playoff series with the Rockets. The Thunder haven’t indicated how many minutes they’ll play their starters but the trend has been limiting them to under 30 minutes.

The two plays that stand out here are Norris Cole and Enes Kanter. Cole is likely to start in place of Westbrook. He’s not a key piece of the rotation so the Thunder shouldn’t have any qualms about playing him heavy minutes. Cole hasn’t played much for the Thunder this season but in year’s past he was a point-per-minute fantasy producer in limited action.

Enes Kanter has topped 29 fantasy points in all three meetings with the Timberwolves this season. As I’ve noted throughout this season the Timberwolves struggle to defend agile PFs. Kanter’s performance in three games proves that theory. Assuming that Steven Adams will not play heavy minutes I expect Kanter to see somewhere around 24 minutes as Nick Collison and Domantas Sabonis are realistically the only other PF/Cs available.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,900 $13,900 $24,800 1.69 34.8 0.0 58.8 -0.9 45.8% -0.6% 13 0.75
Victor Oladipo $5,600 $5,800 $11,500 0.80 33.3 -1.7 26.6 -3.3 21.3% 0.0% 16 -0.22
Andre Roberson $3,800 $3,900 $7,700 0.60 30.2 -3.0 18.0 1.5 10.3% -1.0% 7 -2.75
Taj Gibson $3,800 $3,900 $7,700 0.83 25.6 -6.8 21.3 -3.8 18.4% 1.3% 4 3.73
Steven Adams $4,800 $4,200 $8,400 0.82 30.1 -0.1 24.7 -4.8 16.1% -1.2% 19 -1.48
Enes Kanter $5,500 $4,500 $8,800 1.13 21.4 -1.1 24.1 -5.8 26.3% 1.8% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Enes Kanter, Norris Cole

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo

Minnesota Timberwolves

I hate to recommend plays based strictly on narratives but I like the Timberwolves stars tonight based strictly on the fact that tonight is their final home game of the season. NBA teams are smart enough to realize that you should rest your stars in away games as opposed to home games where your fans bought tickets. The Timberwolves are likely to play their stars close to normal minutes tonight and then rest them tomorrow in the final game of the season.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the superstar I plan to pay up for tonight. In my opinion, he’s easily the top play on the board. Towns is averaging 51.7 FPPG over the past five games. While the Thunder are strong inside against PF and C they aren’t going to play Adams and Kanter normal minutes. Towns should feast on the weak interior defense of Domantas Sabonis and Nick Collison.

The other Timberwolves core players are in play for the same reason as Towns. Ricky Rubio is a secondary play tonight because Dennis Schroder is safer at essentially the same price and PG is otherwise loaded with great plays for cheap. Andrew Wiggins is an ok play at $7,000 on DK and $8,100 on FD strictly because salary cap doesn’t matter tonight. Finally, Gorgui Dieng is the option I’m least excited about because I can find plenty of PF plays with similar upside. He’s viable though if you aren’t already playing several Timberwolves. I’ll note that he has struggled against the Thunder this season scoring 10.6, 12 and 22.6 in three meetings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,700 $7,900 $14,700 0.94 32.9 3.6 30.8 7.3 22.3% 5.0% 5 -0.41
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.45 21.7 5.9 9.8 3.0 10.0% -0.4% 19 1.09
Andrew Wiggins $8,100 $7,000 $13,200 0.87 37.2 -0.4 32.4 5.6 28.4% 3.9% 14 2.22
Gorgui Dieng $5,700 $6,000 $11,900 0.79 32.3 1.7 25.5 -0.7 14.5% -4.4% 12 1.89
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,600 $10,200 $18,300 1.22 36.9 -1.6 44.9 0.3 27.2% 1.9% 11 1.29

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins, Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Dallas Mavericks
denvernba Vegas Total 212.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -4.8 Pace +/- 1.6
Proj. Starter Jamal Murray Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Mason Plumlee Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Nerlens Noel
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 2 7 4 13 5 Adj. DvP 28 30 20 10 17
DRPM -1.21 0.42 -0.21 1.12 2.11 DRPM -1.95 -2.34 0.33 0.04 1.94

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets must have angered the NBA schedule gods prior to the season. Not only do they close out the season on a back-to-back but they’ll play both games on the road. They play tonight in Dallas and then make the relatively short trip to Oklahoma City tomorrow. Neither team has any motivation to speak of in this game.

Ideally, I wouldn’t be looking to target anyone against the Mavericks but the Nuggets have enough injuries that we have some good options here. They’ll only have nine players available if Mudiay plays. Four of those are guards and the other five are forwards/centers. Nikola Jokic is the top play here partially because he’s the safest thing going at PF tonight. We’ll be able to find plenty of minimum-priced options tonight to make this work. That means we can overpay for a few options like Jokic in order to lock in 40+ points at a tough-to-fill position. Jokic has seen his minutes drop back down to around 30 but he’s still averaging 44.1 FPPG over the past five games. He hasn’t had any issue at all facing Dallas this season. He’s scored 47.2, 55.5 and 31.3 in three meetings. After Towns, Jokic is the other star I’m prioritizing tonight in my lineups.

Jamal Murray is the other elite option here. He’s played 35+ minutes in each of the last two games as Jameer Nelson has been out. He’s a viable pivot off Tyler Ennis and Norris Cole if looking for a cheap PG. He’s averaging 28.8 FPPG over the past three games. Unlike the other cheap PGs, Murray has proven he can excel when given heavy minutes and usage.

With a short rotation tonight of either eight or nine players Mason Plumlee, Juan Hernangomez and Will Barton are in play as secondary options. With injury news breaking elsewhere, the current spread of two points here is the closest game of the night while the over/under is a respectable 214.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jamal Murray $4,600 $5,500 $10,900 0.77 20.9 9.8 16.1 10.2 22.3% -2.1% 2 -1.21
Gary Harris $5,900 $6,100 $12,000 0.78 31.1 6.1 24.4 6.6 19.2% -1.7% 7 0.42
Danilo Gallinari $7,100 $6,400 $12,600 0.81 33.8 3.0 27.5 3.9 19.9% 0.3% 4 -0.21
Mason Plumlee $5,300 $4,400 $8,800 1.02 26.4 -7.9 26.9 -7.8 19.5% 2.7% 13 1.12
Nikola Jokic $9,900 $9,500 $17,600 1.31 27.8 5.9 36.4 11.5 25.5% 0.4% 5 2.11
Emmanuel Mudiay $3,900 $4,300 $8,400 0.79 25.6 -2.1 20.3 3.9 24.4% 0.1% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray

Secondary Plays – Juan Hernangomez, Will Barton and Mason Plumlee

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks don’t have anything to play for tonight but they have managed to create a gimmick to possibly get fans to buy tickets. The Mavericks are honoring Tony Romo. They plan to sign Romo to a contract and have him in uniform on the bench (he won’t play though). Over the past couple of games the Mavericks have only been using their veterans for about 20 minutes per game. We can’t target Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes, Nerlens Noel or J.J. Barea but the other available options are in play.

Nicolas Brussino is my favorite of the cheap options. He’s played 23 and 33 minutes the last two games. He draws a matchup against a Nuggets team that is 30th against SG. In a similar matchup against Phoenix on Sunday, Brussino got up 12 shots in route to 23.5 fantasy points.

The other option I like here is Yogi Ferrell. He’s going to go overlooked with people flocking to the new value plays at PG tonight. Farrell has been a very steady option scoring at least 20 fantasy points in four of the past five games. Even though he’s a starter, he hasn’t been rested, he played 39 minutes against Phoenix. This is an elite matchup for Ferrell. He had 28.9 fantasy points in 35 minutes against Denver on 2/6.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $4,800 $5,000 $9,800 0.74 25.6 0.0 18.9 0.9 21.7% 0.7% 28 -1.95
Wesley Matthews $4,400 $5,000 $9,800 0.68 34.4 -3.9 23.5 -1.7 19.6% -3.4% 30 -2.34
Harrison Barnes $5,200 $5,800 $11,500 0.79 35.5 -4.0 28.2 -9.1 24.0% -4.8% 20 0.33
Dirk Nowitzki $5,700 $5,600 $11,200 0.98 26.5 -1.4 26.1 -3.8 24.0% -1.1% 10 0.04
Nerlens Noel $5,400 $4,700 $9,200 1.01 20.8 -0.8 21.0 -0.8 17.4% -2.2% 17 1.94

Elite Plays – Yogi Ferrell and Nicolas Brussino

Secondary Plays – Dwight Powell

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Los Angeles Lakers
neworleansnba Vegas Total 217.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- 2.0 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Tim Frazier Jrue Holiday Solomon Hill Dante Cunningham Alexis Ajinca Proj. Starter Tyler Ennis Jordan Clarkson Brandon Ingram Larry Nance Julius Randle
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 23 29 30 29 Adj. DvP 20 27 8 16 13
DRPM -1.17 -3.07 -3.20 -0.95 DRPM -1.57 1.49 1.68 -0.05 1.86

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are one of tonight’s most-targetable teams. They draw a matchup against a Lakers team that is 29th in total FPPG allowed and they’ve already ruled out Davis and Cousins. The Pelicans are also one of the unlucky teams schedule wise as they close out the season with back-to-back road games. They play in Los Angeles tonight and then make the short trip to Portland tomorrow.

If Jrue Holiday were expected to play a full amount of minutes tonight he would be one of the top plays. That’s unlikely to happen though. Holiday played 39 minutes in the Pelicans final home game last Tuesday. In two games since he’s played 24 and 32 minutes. I don’t have high expectations for Holiday tonight. I’ll be surprised if he plays more than 24 minutes. Instead, the way to deploy Pelicans tonight is going to be with minimum-priced value plays.

Jordan Crawford has topped 25 fantasy points in each of the past two games. He’s played 29 and 30 minutes in those two games. He’s likely to play PG when Holiday is off the court. He’s clearly the Pelicans best offensive weapon with Holiday playing sparingly and Cousins and Davis out. He’s taken 16 field goal attempts in each of the past two games. He’s one of the very best SG options on the board tonight.

While the Lakers are exploitable at just about every position the best place to attack them has been inside. Cheick Diallo and Alexis Ajinca stand out as strong plays for that reason. Of the two, Ajinca is the better play but he’ll block you from playing Towns on FanDuel. For that reason he’s a secondary play. Diallo is a somewhat low-upside option and also draws the secondary play tag. He’s been a DNP-CD for most of the season but played 12 and 26 minutes the past two games. He has proven his mettle in garbage time this season though. He had a 35.5-point game against the Clippers and a 20.9 against the Rockets. Both were blowouts where he was able to play 20+ minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tim Frazier $3,500 $3,600 $7,100 0.79 23.5 -0.8 18.5 -2.2 20.1% -3.1% 30 -1.17
Jrue Holiday $7,400 $7,800 $14,300 0.99 33.0 0.4 32.8 -2.6 26.5% -3.7% 23 -3.07
Solomon Hill $4,200 $4,500 $8,800 0.53 29.7 5.1 15.8 1.7 11.6% -0.4% 29 -3.20
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,800 $7,400 0.56 25.1 -4.4 14.0 -0.4 10.0% 0.3% 30
Alexis Ajinca $3,700 $4,100 $8,000 0.84 14.5 5.6 12.1 5.9 15.4% 2.6% 29 -0.95
Jordan Crawford $3,700 $5,000 $9,800 0.87 23.4 1.7 20.4 0.2 24.8% 1.3% 23 N/A
Cheick Diallo $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.90 9.5 4.3 8.6 0.9 19.0% -2.8% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Jordan Crawford

Secondary Plays – Cheick Diallo and Alexis Ajinca

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers were in the driver’s seat for the second-worst record in the league until they randomly decided to win four games in a row. They are now one game better than the Suns who have just one game to play. The Lakers can go ahead and win tonight if they want as they can’t drop any further and the Suns are unlikely to win tonight at Sacramento in their final game. If we assume the Lakers are playing this game to win there are some intriguing options here.

D’Angelo Russell played on Sunday after his grandmother passed away but isn’t expected to play tonight. That is going to open the door for Tyler Ennis. In his only start this season against the Spurs Ennis played 39 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points. He’s an exciting option here against a Pelicans team that is 20th against PG. He’s cash game viable and should be highly-owned tonight.

Jordan Clarkson is an elite option on DraftKings where he can be a SG and a secondary option on FanDuel because you can only play two PGs. Clarkson is still seeing plenty of minutes but he hasn’t shown the upside we would like to see. He’s scored between 22 and 24 fantasy points in each of the last three games. On the bright side, CourtIQ tells us that Clarkson has played 54 minutes with Ennis on the court and Russell off over the past two weeks. In those 54 minutes Clarkson has a usage rate of 29.7% and averages 33.67 fantasy points per 36 minutes. If we could count on Clarkson for a full workload tonight he would be an elite play.

As you’ve probably noticed, salary cap issues are not one of tonight’s top concerns. If we assume that the Lakers play to win tonight, Julius Randle should be the top scoring true PF (not counting Jokic who can be a PF on FD). Randle has still played at least 27 minutes in each of the past four games. This is also the final home game for the Lakers (the play at Golden State tomorrow) so they should feature their young talent for close to normal minutes. Randle has a good shot at 30+ fantasy points here in a matchup with Cheick Diallo, Alexis Ajinca and Donatas Motiejunas.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ennis $4,000 $4,400 $8,800 0.72 10.0 14.7 7.2 11.4 21.0% -4.3% 20 -1.57
Jordan Clarkson $5,500 $5,700 $11,200 0.77 29.2 3.4 22.5 -2.5 23.8% -2.5% 27 1.49
Brandon Ingram $4,500 $4,100 $8,000 0.62 28.8 -8.4 17.9 4.2 16.9% 10.5% 8 1.68
Larry Nance $4,600 $5,300 $10,500 0.84 22.4 5.5 18.8 6.6 14.0% 0.1% 16 -0.05
Julius Randle $6,400 $6,700 $12,600 1.00 29.1 0.9 29.0 -0.3 22.9% 0.6% 13 1.86
Tarik Black $4,000 $3,700 $7,300 0.85 16.2 7.6 13.8 8.0 15.6% -4.9% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ennis, Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson (FD)

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Sacramento Kings
phoenixnba Vegas Total 219.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 4.1
Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Darren Collison Buddy Hield Arron Afflalo Skal Labissiere Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 20 24 29 24 Adj. DvP 26 28 12 25 27
DRPM -1.91 -2.53 -2.83 0.20 1.00 DRPM -1.28 -2.58 -2.50 -1.68 1.55

Phoenix Suns

The final game of the night features a Suns team that needs a loss against a Kings team that would like to lose but isn’t going out of their way to make it happen. The Kings are 4-6 over their last 10 games as they’ve randomly ruled out players and called it “planned rest.” We’ll start with the Suns first. They want to lose this game so bad that they decided to rule out Devin Booker.

Since the All-Star break, the Kings rank 27th in defensive rating allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. With Booker ruled out, we can more safely target Kings in this matchup tonight without being worried about them doing too good and being pulled in order to support the losing effort. T.J. Warren helps fill a tough-to-fill SF position. He’s managed to play at least 30 minutes in 14 of the last 15 games. He also has a great history against the Kings this season topping 25 fantasy points in all three meetings including a 41.3 last time they met on 3/15. He’s somewhat expensive but that’s the last thing we really care about tonight.

Tyler Ulis would be a better play if he weren’t a PG. According to CourtIQ, Ulis owns a 25.6% usage rate and averages 37.1 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Booker off the court over the last month. Ulis also has the advantage of possibly being one of two PGs available tonight. If Barbosa ends up sitting out, Ronnie Price would be the only backup

Finally, Derrick Jones Jr. and Dragan Bender are interesting. Jones has at least 17 fantasy points in each of the past four games. He’s managed to get at least 21 minutes in each of those games with 27 on Sunday. Bender was injured from February 1st until April 1st. He’s managed to find his way into the game in each of the past four and played 35 minutes against Dallas on Sunday. With this being the Suns final game there is a decent chance they could get an extended look at Bender. He would face off against a Kings team that is 24th against PF and 29th against C.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,400 $6,800 $12,700 0.81 17.9 21.9 14.5 18.9 23.0% -2.1% 21 -1.91
Devin Booker $7,900 $8,400 $15,500 0.86 35.2 4.5 30.3 13.4 28.6% 5.2% 20 -2.53
T.J. Warren $6,500 $6,700 $12,600 0.79 31.0 3.5 24.6 6.0 18.6% 0.4% 24 -2.83
Marquese Chriss $5,300 $5,300 $10,500 0.81 21.1 6.0 17.2 8.7 18.7% -0.4% 29 0.20
Alex Len $4,800 $4,000 $7,800 0.94 20.2 -1.2 19.0 2.3 17.0% 3.0% 24 1.00
Alan Williams $5,200 $4,500 $8,800 1.15 14.8 4.0 17.1 3.2 20.2% -0.7% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays – Tyler Ulis, Derrick Jones Jr. and Dragan Bender

Sacramento Kings

The Injury list above probably looks rather long. Truth be told, most of these players aren’t injured. The last few weeks the Kings have been resting players for back-to-back games. The Kings play tonight at home and then finish the season at Utah tomorrow. I’m listing Evans, Collison and Afflalo probable due to rest while assuming that Lawson, Koufos, Tolliver and Temple rest tonight and play tomorrow. I honestly have no idea how things will actually go as the Kings have been one of the worst teams in the league with timely injury reporting.

While the Suns rank 28th in total FPPG allowed I’m not sure there’s any value in targeting the unknown with the Kings when there are so many value plays elsewhere tonight. Skal Labissiere stands out as the top option here. The Kings are 25th against PF on the season. Labissiere has started each of the past six games topping 31 minutes in five of those. He also had a 46.2 fantasy point game against these same Suns on 3/15 in just 29 minutes. He’s one of the few PF options that we can assume will play 30+ minutes.

If the Kings I have listed as doubtful and questionable tonight get ruled out I’ll have interest in Buddy Hield. There isn’t an overwhelming amount of options at SG tonight. Hield has topped at least 19 fantasy points in each of his past five games. He also hasn’t been ruled out for “planned rest” which is also a bonus when trying to find someone on the Kings worth using.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,500 $5,200 $10,200 0.77 30.3 -4.6 23.2 -1.5 22.1% 2.3% 26 -1.28
Buddy Hield $5,500 $6,300 $12,600 0.71 22.6 7.2 16.1 5.0 20.9% 0.0% 28 -2.58
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 0.50 25.8 -3.1 12.9 -0.3 14.3% 2.0% 12 -2.50
Skal Labissiere $4,500 $5,100 $10,100 0.90 17.4 13.6 15.7 5.9 20.7% -2.6% 25 -1.68
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,300 $6,600 $12,300 0.87 18.6 10.9 16.2 13.4 18.6% -0.7% 27 1.55
Georgios Papagiannis $3,500 $3,900 $7,700 0.79 15.1 8.5 11.9 5.4 15.9% 0.2% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Skal Labissiere

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield

About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.