NFL Grind Down: Divisional Round

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).

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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (written by STLCardinals84)

Kansas City Chiefs New England Patriots
Chiefs Patriots
Saturday – 4:35 PM ET Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
5 42 18.5 -5 42 23.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.6 6 27 5 Offense 29.1 3 4 30
Opp. Defense 19.7 9 20 8 Opp. Defense 16.9 2 6 9
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New England Patriots 15 11 24 5 Kansas City Chiefs 4 4 20 1
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Maclin 128 90 8 1,128 Edelman 88 61 7 715
Wilson 61 37 2 497 Amendola 87 65 3 659
Avant 24 15 0 119 LaFell 74 37 0 524
Kelce 113 80 5 1,003 Gronkowski 120 72 11 1,176

Notable injuries and suspensions: Spencer Ware, KC RB (Ankle): Questionable / Jeremy Maclin, KC WR (Ankle): Doubtful / Julian Edelman, NE WR (Foot): Probable / Rob Gronkowski, NE TE (Knee): Probable

KC Matchup Rating: 5.0
NE Matchup Rating: 5.5

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback: Alex Smith has garnered a reputation as a game manager, but he has shown a little more upside this season with the Chiefs. He is a bit of a wild card this week, especially since we don’t know the status of Jeremy Maclin (more on that later). This is also a week where the DFS salary cap is not overly restrictive, so there is really no need to go super cheap at quarterback. The Chiefs will be playing on the road against a team that has had plenty of playoff success, so taking Smith feels like a bit of a stretch in my eyes.

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Running Game: Spencer Ware has taken a fairly firm grasp on the top running back spot for Kansas City, but he is dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him out of practice so far this week. It sounds like he is going to be fine for the game on Saturday but make sure to monitor his status as the week goes on. Kansas City is going to have to rely on the ground game to eat up clock in this road contest, and they will likely be without their leading wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin, who suffered a high ankle sprain last week. Ware could be a sneaky value play at a cheap price tag in the Divisional Round. You could easily pivot to Charcandrick West if Ware is unable to suit up because of his injury, and we will know before lineups lock because this is the first game of the weekend.

Pass Catchers: Should Jeremy Maclin find himself inactive for this game, the top three wide receivers for the Chiefs will be Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, and Jason Avant. If you can figure out the right guy to take from that bunch, it could prove quite profitable. Most of the targets will likely funnel to Travis Kelce, who had a fantastic game in the Wild Card win over the Texans, hauling in eight passes for 128 yards in the big win. Kelce is the obvious choice here, and he ranks toward the top of the tight end scale on this four game slate.

The Takeaway: The running game could be very busy in this one, and the injury status of Spencer Ware is definitely one of the key things to monitor leading up to Saturday’s kickoff. Travis Kelce will be a popular target at tight end, especially if Jeremy Maclin is unable to suit up. Alex Smith is too much of a reach at quarterback. The strength of the Chiefs lies in their defense, so don’t get too carried away with their skill position options.

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The Patriots as a whole will likely fly a bit under the radar this week. Daily fantasy players respect the Kansas City defense, and that defense is a primary reason why the Chiefs have won eleven games in a row. That being said, never count out Tom Brady in the post-season. He always finds another gear. Given the Patriots’ uncertainty at running back and new-found health in the pass catching department, they could very easily decide to throw the ball 40 times this weekend. Brady makes for a very intriguing, high-upside GPP pivot this weekend. I probably wouldn’t use him in a cash game, however; he doesn’t seem as safe as a guy like Carson Palmer.

Running Game: Steven Jackson carried the load in Week 17 as the Patriots rested many of their starters despite seeding being on the line. Don’t expect that to happen in the playoffs. Brandon Bolden is likely going to serve as the early-down back, with James White being used on third downs and other passing situations. Bolden is an interesting low-cost option on non-PPR sites, while I would prefer White in a full-PPR format. Both carry a fair amount of risk against a good defense in a game where the Patriots could decide to eschew the running game. If you buy that narrative, then upgrade White and downgrade Bolden a little more.

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Pass Catchers: Well, we haven’t seen this in a while. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Rob Gronkowski are all expected to play in this game, and they haven’t been on the field together in quite some time. At first glance, this may seem like a negative for all three of them. However, the Patriots offense has sputtered with some of these guys out, and this may just open the field up enough for all of them to find a bit more success. Especially if the Patriots decide to air it out often in this game, you could see Edelman, Amendola, and Gronkowski all get between 7 and 12 targets in this game. I wouldn’t go all in here, but it makes sense to give one of the three a look.

The Takeaway: New England’s offense is a great way to look for GPP games this weekend. Most daily fantasy players don’t like to mess with a good Kansas City defense, but the Patriots always find another gear in the post-season. Heck, even Bill Belichick is getting black eyes. It’s that time of year. Don’t count them out, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they put up a ton of points in this game.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (written by Notorious)

Green Bay Packers Arizona Cardinals
Packers Cardinals
Saturday – 8:15 PM ET Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 50 21.5 -7 50 28.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.7 12 22 7 Offense 30.6 2 5 9
Opp. Defense 19.6 7 10 6 Opp. Defense 20.1 11 11 21
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Arizona Cardinals 5 6 5 14 Green Bay Packers 14 15 6 23
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Cobb 137 82 7 941 Fitzgerald 146 109 9 1,215
Adams 98 54 2 531 Floyd 89 52 6 849
Jones 110 57 8 971 Brown 101 65 7 1,025
Rodgers 89 60 8 532 Fells 28 21 3 311

Notable injuries and suspensions: Richard Rodgers, TE GB (hip): Probable / Davante Adams, WR GB (knee): Out / Michael Floyd, WR ARI (knee): Probable / Chris Johnson RB ARI (leg): Out

GB Matchup Rating: 5.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.5

Green Bay Packers

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Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers had an awful season by his standards, but he came through with a big game when it mattered the most. In the Packers 35-18 win over the Redskins in the Wildcard Round, Rodgers was 21/36 for 210 yards and a two touchdowns. That may not seem like a great stat line, but the Packers had the game in hand in the second half. Plus, we can’t expect monster fantasy outings from quarterbacks now that we are in the playoffs. This week Rodgers will look for a little revenge against a Cardinals team that sacked him eight times in their late December meeting. While the Cardinals have been stout against the run, the Packers will need a big game from Rodgers to pull off the upset. Even if the game goes as planned and the Packers get down early, that just means more passes for Rodgers. There are better options for cash games, but Rodgers could make for a sneaky tournament play this weekend.

Running Game: In last week’s win over the Redskins, the snaps and touches for Eddie Lacy and James Starks were a lot closer than most expected. They both had 12 carries and they both scored a rushing touchdown. The only major difference was that Starks also caught two balls out of the backfield. We should see another time split this week, although Starks could see a few extra snaps if the Packers fall behind early. He is clearly the better pass catcher of the two. I’m not looking to either Lacy or Starks in cash games, but Lacy does have some appeal in tournaments, especially on full-PPR sites.

Pass Catchers: Davante Adams is highly unlikely to play this week, as he injured his knee in the game against the Redskins. While that doesn’t give a major boost to any player in particular, it could mean a couple of extra targets for both Randall Cobb and James Jones. There aren’t many cornerbacks that exclusively shadow team’s number one receiver, but Patrick Patterson is one of them. Cobb may have a tough time getting open, but the Packers have been trying to find ways to get him the ball in open space. James Jones is the preferred play of the two, as he will line up against Justin Bethel for most of the game. Jones deserves consideration in all league formats, while Cobb is more of a tournament play. Richard Rodgers is a little expensive, but is also worth a look in a game where the Packers may be playing from behind.

The Takeaway: In general, there isn’t a ton to love about the Packers’ offense this week. According to FootballOutsiders, the Cardinals were ranked fourth in DVOA against the pass and second in DVOA against the run during the regular season. James Jones is my favorite play of the bunch. Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, and James Starks are more GPP plays.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: The Cardinals quickly disposed of the Packers in their Week 16 meeting in December. They got to Rodgers early and the game was basically over by halftime. We should expect a much more competitive game this time around, which is great news for Carson Palmer and the Cardinals’ passing attack. I have Palmer ranked as my top overall quarterback play this week. While he is the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel, he is somehow the sixth most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. Basically, take your free Palmer square in cash games on DK. The Packers had an above-average pass defense during the regular season, but the Cardinals have the highest implied team total on the board and we should expect a lot of their scoring to come through the air.

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Running Game: Every once in a while there is a play that is so good that you want to target that player in both cash games and tournaments, regardless of how you expect his ownership to shake out. That’s how I feel about David Johnson this week. He will likely be 80% owed, but he will be a staple in every lineup that I make. He is the premier play at running back and it is not even close. In his previous meeting against the Packers, he racked up 127 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in two quarters and one drive in the third quarter. He sat the rest of the game because they were ahead by such a large margin. The impressive rookie is about to have a breakout game in the national spotlight.

Pass Catchers: The question isn’t whether or not the Cardinals’ pass catchers will have success this weekend, the question is which one? We have seen big fantasy outings from Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown this season. For what it’s worth, over the last three weeks of play, Brown saw the most targets, followed by Floyd and then Fitzgerald. That’s not a trend that I expect to continue in the postseason though. The Packers generally don’t shadow any receivers, so the three will likely each see routes against Sam Shields (questionable), Casey Hayward, and Damarious Randall. I see Fitzgerald as the safest cash game play, Floyd as a strong play in all formats, and Brown as more of a tournament play.

The Takeaway: The Cardinals have the highest implied team total on the board this weekend and it’s really not even close. The Cardinals are projected to score 28.5 points and the next highest team total is 23.5 points (Patriots). We usually don’t like to stack offenses in weekly fantasy football, but with only four games on the slate, a Cardinals’ stack is certainly in play. I have Carson Palmer ranked as my top quarterback and David Johnson ranked as my top running back.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (written by Notorious)

Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers
Seahawks Panthers
Sunday – 1:05 PM ET Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3 44 20.5 -3 44 23.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.5 9 17 2 Offense 31.3 1 25 3
Opp. Defense 19.3 6 15 4 Opp. Defense 16.8 1 1 1
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Carolina Panthers 6 20 11 16 Seattle Seahawks 2 1 3 21
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Baldwin 110 83 15 1,111 Brown 54 31 4 485
Kearse 72 52 5 703 Ginn 97 44 10 799
Lockett 74 52 0 719 Funchess 63 31 5 473
Willson 26 17 1 213 Olsen 124 77 7 1,104

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA (abdomen): Probable / Ted Ginn, WR CAR (knee): Probable / Jonathan Steward, WR CAR (foot): Probable

SEA Matchup Rating: 4.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5

Seattle Seahawks

russell-wilson-300x200

Quarterback: The Seahawks advanced through the Wildcard Round thanks to a 27-yard field goal miss by Blair Walsh. At this point, they are playing with house money. They have a little revenge narrative going for them too, as the Panthers went into Seattle and beat them earlier in the season. The Seahawks have a chance to return the favor this week. Vegas is expecting a close, defensive battle, which could be bad for fantasy production. Wilson has been on a tear in the second half of the season though, and he always gives you that added floor thanks to his ability to make plays with his legs. The biggest issue is the matchup. Wilson may have plenty of playoff magic left in him, but I’m looking elsewhere at quarterback.

Running Game: Marshawn Lynch practiced last week, was listed as probable, and then was eventually ruled out. He practiced this Wednesday and reports suggest that he may be able to return to the lineup. We shouldn’t bank on it though. For now, consider him questionable until we get a definitive statement from the Seahawks. If Lynch is able to go, he would be an interesting play at running back, which is an awfully thin position again this week. After David Johnson, you don’t really feel too comfortable playing any of the other backs. If Lynch is unable to suit up, Christine Michael would draw another start. He saw 22 carries last week, while Bryce Brown and Fred Jackson combined for one. The matchup is tough, but whoever gets the nod in the Seahawks’ backfield is worth a look.

Pass Catchers: When it comes to the Panthers’ secondary, there isn’t such a thing as a favorable matchup. Obviously, the corner that we want to avoid at all costs is Josh Norman. He is projected to line up against Tyler Lockett. Most people will assume that Norman will be on Doug Baldwin, but that likely won’t be the case. Norman only ventured into the slot on two percent of his snaps this season. This takes Lockett out of play for me and makes Baldwin a strong fantasy option once again. He has been a touchdown magnet over the last two months and the Seahawks could be playing this game from behind. Jermaine Kearse is an interesting tournament play. With Norman on Lockett, he may see a few extra targets thrown his way.

The Takeaway: Basically, the matchup is terrible. However, that’s the case for a lot of the teams this weekend. There are only eight teams left in the playoffs and most of them have elite defenses. Doug Baldwin is my favorite play from the Seahawks, as he should avoid Josh Norman’s coverage. Whoever starts between Marshawn Lynch and Christine Michael should see upwards of 20 touches. With the elite quarterbacks in the field this week, Russell Wilson is more of a tournament play.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: CaMVP Newton is one of the top quarterback plays this weekend. While I still prefer Carson Palmer against the Packers, Newton isn’t far behind. When these teams met earlier in the season, he had 269 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. He is looking to prove that the regular season wasn’t a fluke and he can do just that by defeating the defending NFC-champion Seahawks. Seattle was ranked third in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against the pass this season, but the Panthers are projected to score 23.5 points. Newton is responsible for such a large portion of their offense that it is hard to ignore the upside that he provides. Palmer is the safer play in cash games, but Newton has similar upside and will likely have a lower ownership level.

jonathan-stewart-300x200

Running Game: Jonathan Stewart was able to practice on Wednesday and is expected to return to the Panthers’ lineup. Reports suggest that he will not be limited in any fashion, so he should resume his role as the workhorse back in this offense. The issue with Stewart is twofold – he doesn’t have a big role in the passing game and he loses redzone carries to both Newton and Mike Tolbert. Even if Stewart sees 20 touches, that may not equate to much. The Seahawks were ranked third in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against the run in the regular season.

Pass Catchers: There is one pass catcher that I feel extremely confident about on the Panthers this week. Can you guess who it is? If Corey Brown was your guess, I’m sorry to tell you that you are wrong. Greg Olsen has been Newton’s main weapon all season long and there is no reason to think that it will change this week. Olsen also draws the best matchup of the pass catchers, as the one weakness in the Legion of Boom is their inability to defend tight ends. They allowed the eighth most fantasy points to the position during the regular season. Ted Ginn has that big play potential that we look for in tournaments, but he doesn’t see enough targets to warrant cash game consideration.

The Takeaway: When it comes to the Panthers, it is the same story as the regular season. Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are both terrific options and can be paired together in both cash games and tournaments. Ted Ginn is a nice deep threat, but he may have a tough time getting open downfield against the Seahawks. I will be avoiding the Panthers’ running game. Not only does Jonathan Stewart lose goal-line carries, but this is a bad matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (written by STLCardinals84)

Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos
Steelers Broncos
Sunday – 4:40 PM ET Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
** ** ** ** ** **
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.9 5 2 11 Offense 22.2 18 15 17
Opp. Defense 18.5 5 2 2 Opp. Defense 19.7 10 30 5
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Denver Broncos 1 12 2 22 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 2 31 26
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Brown 205 143 10 1,981 Thomas 177 105 6 1,304
Bryant 98 55 8 875 Sanders 137 76 6 1,164
Wheaton 84 46 5 772 Latimer 12 6 1 60
Miller 84 62 2 546 Daniels 77 46 3 517

Editor’s Note: Antonio Brown has been ruled OUT for this weekend’s game.

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB (Shoulder): Probable / DeAngelo Williams, PIT RB (Foot): Doubtful / Antonio Brown, PIT WR (Concussion): Doubtful / Brock Osweiler, DEN Backup QB (Knee): Probable

PIT Matchup Rating: 4.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 8.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

ben-roethlisberger-300x200

Quarterback: I admire Ben Roethlisberger’s courage to give it a go despite torn ligaments in his shoulder, but this certainly isn’t a good sign for the prospects of offensive success. The Steelers are facing a good defense on the road in a tough environment. In addition, leading receiver Antonio Brown is unlikely to get cleared from the concussion protocol in time for this game. Starting running back DeAngelo Williams is out. Pittsburgh has the lowest projected team total on the board. Yeah, this isn’t going to go well. Don’t bother spending up for a banged-up Roethlisberger here.

Running Game: With DeAngelo Williams out of commission, Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman stepped up surprisingly well a week ago. Toussaint received 16 carries to Todman’s 11, and Toussaint was actually surprisingly good in the passing game, too. It sounds like he has the upper hand here, and Pittsburgh would be wise to try and establish the run with a banged-up Roethlisberger at the helm. Give Toussaint a look if you need a value running back, though there is some risk here against a good defense.

Editor’s Note: Antonio Brown has been ruled OUT for this weekend’s game.

Pass Catchers: Assuming Antonio Brown is not cleared to play, there will be plenty of targets to go around. The biggest beneficiaries will likely be Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, though I worry about Bryant quite a bit. He is the big play threat for this offense, but will Roethlisberger be able to get him the ball with limited arm strength? Darrius Heyward-Bey and Heath Miller may see a few extra targets as well, but this is a tough spot to peg given the strengths of Denver’s defense and the health of the Pittsburgh quarterback.

The Takeaway: If you want to fade one team this week, Pittsburgh could very well be that team. They have the lowest projected team total of the week, are extremely banged up, and will be on the road against a good defense. Maybe take a chance on Fitzgerald Toussaint as a cheap GPP option. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to love here.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: The Peyton Manning era returns! He’s back! The narratives that “Peyton Manning LED the Broncos to victory” in Week 17 are an absolute joke. The guy completed 5-of-9 passes for 69 yards in the game. He accounted for zero scores. His longest completion was 18 yards. Give me a break. Even though Manning is washed up, the good news is that this is a matchup against a swiss cheese pass defense that the Steelers throw out there. Even a bad quarterback can have a good game against them, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Manning end up with a good stat line in this game. If you’re looking for a risk/reward quarterback option, here you go.

Running Game: The Broncos have turned to a tandem of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman in the backfield, and it has worked out well in recent weeks. The problem is that this is as close to a 50/50 time share as you can find. Sometimes, they see an equal amount of work. Sometimes, the Broncos are willing to ride the hot hand. Pittsburgh’s defense is much stronger against the run than the pass, but both of these backs are relatively cheap across the DFS industry. One of them is very likely to exceed value in this game; it’s just a matter of figuring out which one.

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Pass Catchers: As I wrote above, the real spot to attack the Pittsburgh defense is through the air, though we can’t be sure what to expect from Peyton Manning. The good news is that he has an elite wide receiver in Demaryius Thomas to throw the ball to. Thomas should find plenty of success against a suspect Pittsburgh secondary, and he could be the top overall wide receiver on the slate given the injury concerns to several other wide receivers. The upside is immense given the size and strength of Thomas combined with the struggles of the Pittsburgh pass defense. If you wish to go a little cheaper, Emmanuel Sanders was much better over the second half of the season. Don’t bother with Vernon Davis.

The Takeaway: Denver is in a good spot in this game, especially since they could gain control of time of possession if their defense puts the clamps on the Steelers. Someone is going to have a big game, and nailing the right running back and wide receiver from this team could be the key to GPP success. Is the right combination Hillman and Thomas? Is it Anderson and Sanders? Those are the tough decisions that we have to make with Denver in the Divisional Round.


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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84