NFL Grind Down Week 13 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-12-06 20:49:37

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals						Cleveland Browns
Sunday – 1 p.m.						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.0	4	14	9		Offense	19.4	28	8	32
Opp. Defense	28.2	31	24	31		Opp. Defense	17.5	1	17	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	14	26	22	17		Cincinnati Bengals	3	10	13	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	100	65	6	909		Benjamin	95	54	5	829
Sanu	36	25	1	368		Hartline	56	30	2	333
Jones	72	42	3	573		Bowe	9	3	0	31
Eifert	68	46	12	522		Barnidge	85	55	7	758

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyler Eifert (CIN, Questionable), Taylor Gabriel, Andrew Hawkins (CLE, Doubtful)

CIN Matchup Rating: 8.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 1.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: The Browns have a terrible defense in all phases, but with Andy Dalton (FD $8,000, DK $6,400) unlikely to have his All-World tight end available this week, production may be slightly harder to come by for the TCU product. Dalton has produced in blowouts on a pretty consistent basis this season, with three or more total touchdowns against the Rams, Browns and Bills despite wide margins of victory in those games. Cleveland ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass, and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to QBs, so another three-score game against the Browns is more of a median projection for Dalton than a ceiling. He’s a strong tournament play, and one of a few quarterbacks you can consider for cash games.

Running Game: Giovani Bernard (FD $6,200, DK $4,500) still holds an advantage over Jeremy Hill (FD $6,600, DK $4,800) in red zone opportunities this season, but that has not translated into touchdowns. And with the way the two performed in the last few weeks, it’s safe to assume that the running duties will be given to Hill more often than not, while Bernard will remain the passing option out of the backfield. This is never a fun situation to break down for fantasy purposes, but we know that Hill has multiple-touchdown upside, and the Bengals shouldn’t require Bernard’s services as a receiver all that often in what looks to be an easy win against their in-state rivals. Neither player can be trusted in cash games, but Hill is the better play in tournaments.

Pass Catchers: If Tyler Eifert (FD $6,400, DK $5,800) is ruled out for this game, I think that gives a very nice boost to A.J. Green (FD $8,400, DK $7,600) as a touchdown threat, and to Mohamed Sanu (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) as a viable option in PPR formats. Eifert has 16 of the team’s 56 red zone targets so far this year, most on the team. He’s turned those into 12 receptions and 11 touchdowns, also team highs. Green is second in all three categories, while Sanu actually has a respectable eight targets inside the opponent’s 20, just with no touchdowns to show for it. Sanu plays a ton of snaps, and would have more room to work and deserve more attention from Dalton if Eifert is out, so he’s a very sneaky way to get exposure to this offense if the tight end doesn’t suit up. Otherwise, Green is always a great play, as he has the potential for a huge game at any time, although he hasn’t posted big numbers in blowout wins this year, seemingly saving his big efforts for closer affairs. This is likely just a coincidence, and you can still consider the former Georgia standout as a strong GPP play. Tyler Kroft (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) will see work at tight end in place of Eifert should the starter not be able to go, but we don’t have any reason to bank on a rookie with two career targets when players with more volume this season have similarly cheap price tags at the position.

The Takeaway: The Bengals should win this one running away, and figuring out the starters who will score the points to set the blowout in motion will be key to succeeding in tournaments. Dalton, Hill, Green, and Sanu are my leading candidates. The Cincy defense is in play, as well, since the Browns are capable of several turnovers, and are unlikely to score more than 20 points in this game.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: Austin Davis (FD $5,400, DK $5,000) did well enough to keep noted liar Johnny Manziel on the bench for another week, but the former St. Louis signal caller was sitting as a third-string QB for most of the season for a reason. Davis finished his Rams career with three starts with a combined three touchdowns, five interceptions, and well under 500 total yards passing on nearly 80 attempts. He did have a couple of good games as a starter for St. Louis, including two touchdowns against the Seahawks’ tough defense, yet didn’t produce with any sort of consistency. With the way quarterbacks are priced across the industry, especially on DraftKings, Davis isn’t really needed this week, even if you think he could throw for a couple of scores against the Bengals’ ninth-ranked DVOA pass defense. If the price savings on FanDuel are that appealing to you, Davis is a fine punt play for a GPP lineup, but otherwise, Davis is an unnecessary risk in daily fantasy football this weekend.

Running Game: The Browns have no idea what they’re doing at the running back position, except that Duke Johnson (FD $6,000, DK $3,800) is the back they prefer to throw the ball to in the passing game. The Bengals have a respectable, but not great, run defense, and have allowed a couple of decent receiving performances from backs this season (Woodhead and Charles being the culprits, while Johnson himself hauled in a score the last time these teams met). Johnson is a dart throw in a tournament on PPR sites, but otherwise, I’m steering clear of this backfield.

Pass Catchers: We don’t know a lot about the passing tendencies of Austin Davis in this Cleveland offense, but of his ten throws in his Browns debut, five went to Brian Hartline (FD $5,100, DK $3,400). Hartline should remain a key figure in the offense should Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel remain out, as Hartline and Travis Benjamin (FD $5,900, DK $5,200) then represent virtually all of the talent at wideout the Browns have and are willing to use (which excludes Dwayne Bowe, obviously). In fact, the other five throws went to the aforementioned Benjamin and Johnson, with one more to Gary Barnidge (FD $6,100, DK $5,300). Davis stepped in and threw the ball to his best players, something he’ll continue to do this week. The Bengals have allowed big games to a few receivers this season, but generally limit fantasy production from wideouts, so it’s tough to know who to trust. Dre Kirkpatrick is the weak link in the defensive backfield, but with so many injuries at wideout for Cleveland, it’s impossible to know who will line up against him more often. We do know that the Bengals have only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this year, so Barnidge’s upside is limited, and the possibility of 40-50% of routes run against Kirkpatrick means either Benjamin or Hartline will sneak into my tournament lineups based on format (Benjamin in .5 PPR, Hartline in full PPR).

The Takeaway: The Browns aren’t going to score many points, but thankfully, they’re priced with those expectations in mind. Davis, Johnson, Benjamin and Hartline are the players to target in tournaments, but not all of these players are necessary risks on all sites, or in all scoring formats.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars						Tennessee Titans
Sunday – 1 p.m.						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	43	20.25				-2.5	43	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.5	22	15	23		Offense	18.5	30	25	25
Opp. Defense	23.4	15	7	17		Opp. Defense	27.2	29	26	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	24	2	18	25		Jacksonville Jaguars	29	25	16	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	109	55	8	927		Wright	53	30	3	379
Hurns	81	48	7	758		Douglas	44	22	2	219
Lee	12	5	0	76		Green-Beckham	37	16	2	243
Thomas	51	29	3	283		Walker	74	59	3	708

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Bryan Walters, Allen Hurns (JAC, Questionable), Dexter McCluster (TEN, Out)

JAC Matchup Rating: 3.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: Like many other quarterbacks available on this weekend’s slate, Blake Bortles (FD $7,400, DK $6,000) is capable of throwing a couple of touchdown passes and returning a decent value multiplier. This trend of soft pricing and fairly consistent production from the mid-range quarterbacks means we need to seek a bit more than that if we want to set our lineups apart. Bortles is capable of 20-30 rushing yards and has flashed 3+ touchdown upside, both of which are nice bonuses that set him apart from the flock of other passers who are good for 250 yards and two scores per week. Last week, Derek Carr posted a stat line of 330/3/0 against Tennessee, becoming the second QB in three weeks to throw for three scores against the Titans. This is a trend I can see continuing, even if the Titans have respectable advanced metrics against opposing passing games. Bortles is unlikely to kill your lineup, and has decent upside, and is, therefore, a secondary tournament option.

Running Game: The Titans have allowed the fewest FanDuel points to running backs this season, thanks to limited production from backs as receivers, and only five rushing touchdowns on the year coming from RBs playing against Tennessee. Obviously, this makes an already touchdown-averse T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,100, DK $4,800) tougher to roster, yet with such low anticipated ownership levels, he could be a very strong GPP play if he breaks both trends and finds the end zone once or twice. The last time these teams met, Yeldon failed to score on 17 touches, and despite a touch count approaching 200 on the season, the Alabama product has scored only twice. The Jags have run 105 plays in the red zone this season, but only 20 have been handoffs to Yeldon, so while he has nearly 40% of his team’s total touches, he sees just over 20% of the touches in the red zone. It doesn’t make much sense, and if the Jaguars coaching staff were trustworthy, we could bank on a change sooner or later, but the inexplicable lack of scoring opportunities for Yeldon means he’s simply a tournament option.

Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns (FD $6,800, DK $5,700) is dealing with a concussion, and if he is forced to sit out, it would change the landscape of the Jacksonville passing game quite a bit. On the year, Hurns and Allen Robinson (FD $8,000, DK $7,300) have dominated the targets in this offense, seeing 190 combined looks, while all of the other wideouts have combined for just over 100. The Titans don’t have any corners worth worrying about from a matchup perspective, and allowed Robinson to haul in 113 yards worth of passes just a couple of weeks ago, so obviously the top receiver for Jacksonville is in play no matter who else suits up at the position. But if Hurns is out, Bryan Walters (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) should see a boost in usage and may see a couple of extra snaps if he’s healthy enough to play, while Rashad Greene (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) and Marqise Lee (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) will also become relevant. Greene had one of the more unique stat lines in recent NFL history to start the season (13 targets, seven receptions, 28 yards and a touchdown), but any volume can turn into productive volume, especially in a PPR format. He has only nine targets in his other three appearances, but would be my pick to step into a bigger role in Hurns’ absence. Robinson is the preferred play, as well as Julius Thomas (FD $5,800, DK $4,000), who will face a bottom-ten tight end defense. If Hurns and Walters are both out, Greene is very appealing based on probable volume alone.

The Takeaway: The Jaguars passing game has multiple targets to consider (Bortles, Robinson, Walters/Greene, Thomas), while running back T.J. Yeldon could finally get his shot in the red zone and convert this week, but is a risky play due to his lack of scoring so far this season.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The Titans play at one of the slowest tempos in the NFL, which must be a shock to the system of Marcus Mariota (FD $7,100, DK $5,500), who spent his college career getting set and ready for the next play as quickly as possible. He has adjusted well enough, with five multi-touchdown outings in nine starts, but his weapons are lacking, and he’s been far from consistent on a game-to-game basis. In the previous matchup between these teams, against what can only be described as a bad Jacksonville pass defense, Mariota failed to throw for a score, picking up only 231 yards on 35 attempts. The Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and allow the third-most points to opposing QBs, but Mariota is only a secondary GPP play thanks to his lack of consistency.

Running Game: The Jaguars continue to have an elite run defense that casual fantasy players might confuse for a good matchup. It’s unlikely that many were looking to roster Antonio Andrews (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) this week, but in case you were, consider the following: The Jaguars have allowed only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt this season, best in the NFL. They rank fourth in DVOA against the run, and actually struggle to contain backs in the passing game more than they do as runners. This isn’t Andrews’ strong suit, and would actually make Dexter McCluster more appealing if he were healthy. As it stands, I’ll pass on all Tennessee backs this week.

Pass Catchers: Mariota spread the ball around quite a bit in the Titans’ last game, something we’ve seen all season from the Tennessee QB. Other than Delanie Walker (FD $6,000, DK $5,700), who regularly sees 8-10 targets, no player can be counted on for a reliable workload in this offense. Harry Douglas (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) and Kendall Wright (FD $5,200, DK $4,300) both have a decent amount of passes thrown their way on occasion, but Douglas isn’t a good receiver, and Wright has incredibly low upside thanks to the very short routes he runs. The Jaguars are bad against tight ends according to both DVOA and fantasy points against, so I’ll just stick to Walker when targeting the pass catchers for this Titans team.

The Takeaway: Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker could combine for a touchdown and a decent amount of yards this weekend, but otherwise, the Titans are impossible to trust, even in a favorable matchup.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

San Francisco 49ers						Chicago Bears
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43	18				-7	43	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	13.8	32	30	20		Offense	21.0	24	22	16
Opp. Defense	24.0	19	2	29		Opp. Defense	24.6	21	28	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	15	8	12	6		San Francisco 49ers	25	29	28	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Boldin	72	44	2	558		Jeffery	68	43	2	605
Smith	41	21	2	453		Royal	36	26	1	170
Patton	37	20	1	255		Wilson	51	28	1	464
McDonald	27	19	2	200		Bennett	76	50	3	425

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Garrett Celek, Carlos Hyde (SF, Doubtful), Zach Miller, Marquess Wilson (CHI, Questionable), Martellus Bennett (CHI, Probable)

SF Matchup Rating: 2.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 6.5

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) didn’t post terrible numbers against the Seahawks or Cardinals, and will now get a slightly easier matchup against the 16th-ranked (in terms of DVOA) Bears defense. The Bears have buckled down on defense in recent weeks, allowing only five passing touchdowns over the past five weeks following a four-touchdown game from Matthew Stafford and a bye week. With the way the Chicago defense has been playing and with what I know about Gabbert, I can’t recommend him for daily fantasy lineups. There’s a chance he has a decent game and returns value, but I see no way he stands out from the herd of passers capable of scoring a couple of touchdowns and throwing for 250 yards. The floor is too low, and the ceiling isn’t high enough.

Running Game: Shaun Draughn (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) is in line for another busy day out of the backfield, as the talk about Carlos Hyde seems to be focused more on the possibility of injured reserve than the possibility of a return. Draughn has been a favored target for Gabbert out of the backfield, seeing 21 targets over the last three games, while returning pedestrian numbers as a runner on a consistent amount of carries. However, he’ll face the incredibly weak Chicago run defense this week, and should he see another 15 carries, he stands a chance of breaking a big play, or finding the end zone should he get an opportunity in the red zone. The Bears rank 31st in DVOA against the run, and while they haven’t allowed many rushing scores this season (only three), they have surrendered a 100-yard game to backs in two straight games, and in three of the last five. On DraftKings, where receptions and 100-yard games are worth bonus points, Draughn is a very attractive option, even if you don’t think the Niners will score a touchdown in this game.

Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $6,000, DK $4,100) is the most talented player on the 49ers offense, and is targeted regularly as a result. He has 90 or more receiving yards in four of his last five appearances, but has been kept out of the end zone since Week 5. He’s tough to roster in non-PPR formats, but does get a favorable matchup, as the Bears don’t have an experienced, quality slot defender in their secondary. If Garrett Celek remains sidelined, Vance McDonald (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is an appealing cheap tight end option, as he has touchdowns in back-to-back games and has 16 targets in his last three games.

The Takeaway: Draughn, Boldin and McDonald are three tournament candidates from a bad 49ers offense that will likely fail to top 20 points in this game. All three are preferred in PPR formats.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) has only one touchdown in his last two starts, but the 49ers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Something has to give, and since Cutler is more talented than a two-game sample against decent defenses would suggest, I’ll side with the Vanderbilt product. The Niners rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, and ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. They’ve allowed 300 or more passing yards five times this year, and have given up two or more touchdown passes five times as well. Their four worst performances against the pass have all come on the road, allowing Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson to pick up 260 or more passing yards and two or more touchdowns in their respective home matchups with San Francisco. Cutler is not viable for cash games, but holds a ton of upside as a tournament quarterback, especially with his top receiver back at close to full strength.

Running Game: The Bears will likely deploy a committee backfield for the rest of the season, with veteran Matt Forte (FD $7,600, DK $6,900) “starting” but young Jeremy Langford (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) seeing his fair share of snaps. The duo both received 16 combined carries and targets against the Packers, and while Langford scored, neither had a great fantasy outing. The Niners are a bad defense against running backs, as well, ranking 27th in run defense DVOA and third in fantasy points allowed to backs. But it’s a pure guessing game as to which Chicago RB will get the fantasy production. Both are valuable as runners, receivers, and in the red zone, so we just don’t know how the two will be used together. Langford’s reduced price makes him more appealing from a projected point per dollar standpoint, but Forte still has a very high ceiling.

Pass Catchers: When Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,700, DK $6,900) is healthy, Alshon Jeffery is a top option for daily fantasy purposes. Apart from a blowout win against the Rams in Week 10, Jeffery has been targeted 11 or more times in each of his appearances this season, and should continue to see a healthy amount of looks in a passing offense that should flourish in a good matchup. Top wideouts like Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald and Odell Beckham all had seven or more receptions for 100 or more yards against this defense, and it’s a safe bet that Jeffery adds his name to that list this weekend. Martellus Bennett (FD $5,200, DK $3,600) is reportedly unhappy about his role in the offense, but if he’s healthy, he should resume his role as one of the better tight ends in football. He’s tough to trust if he is indeed falling out with his coaches on top of struggling with an injury, but he’s capable of catching a ton of passes and scoring if he’s playing and being involved in the gameplan. With Jeffery active, and with two capable receiving backs, it’s tough to trust any other wideouts for the Bears, and Marquess Wilson (FD $5,700, DK $4,000) is priced too high thanks for a few games without Jeffery so far this season, and got injured in practice this week, anyway.

The Takeaway: Cutler and Jeffery are premier options in this one, with the latter viable in cash games, while both can be used in GPPs. The running back situation is a bit of a roll of the dice this week, but could pay huge dividends, while the other pass catchers are tough to trust with Jeffery dominating the volume.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos						San Diego Chargers
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4	43.5	23.75				4	43.5	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.9	16	18	17		Offense	22.2	19	2	30
Opp. Defense	27.9	30	20	26		Opp. Defense	18.8	4	1	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	18	31	7	23		Denver Broncos	1	19	1	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	124	72	2	911		Floyd	45	22	3	421
Sanders	94	52	4	752		Johnson	65	45	3	497
Latimer	11	6	1	64		Inman	37	20	2	286
Daniels	57	33	3	362		Gates	52	33	4	371

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Peyton Manning (DEN, Out), Owen Daniels (DEN, Questionable), Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd (SD, Probable)

DEN Matchup Rating: 6.0
SD Matchup Rating: 3.0

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: Like so many other passers this week, Brock Osweiler (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) is capable of scoring a touchdown or two and getting to 250 yards, but doesn’t have a very high ceiling beyond that. The San Diego defense is bad on all levels, and if the towering quarterback was going to have a breakout game, this is as good of a spot as he’ll get. I just don’t see the reason to roster him when there are more proven players in similarly good spots. The Bolts have held three different quarterbacks to fewer than two touchdowns this season, and it’s just as likely that Osweiler becomes the fourth on that list as it is that he emerges as a top-10 QB on the weekend in terms of fantasy output.

Running Game: The main reason to not trust the Denver passing game is the threat of the running attack against a San Diego defense that ranks last in DVOA against the run, and second in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Seven different RBs have rushed for 50+ yards and a touchdown against the Chargers this season, while six have hauled in passes for 40 or more yards. The Chargers rank fourth in yards allowed to backs as runners and receivers, and have given up 13 total touchdowns to opposing RBs in 11 games. C.J. Anderson (FD $6,800, DK $3,500) and Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) will both receive double-digit touches against the Chargers, and figuring out which to roster may be the key to taking down tournaments this weekend. Anderson is the people’s choice based on Thursday lock contests, but Hillman out-carried Anderson in Weeks 6, 8, 10 and 11. Both are viable options in the passing game, and both have shown big-play potential as runners this season. I will look to roster both, but will prefer Hillman in tournaments as I play the contrarian angle.

Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,600, DK $7,200) will see plenty of coverage from Jason Verrett, who doesn’t have the size to match up with Thomas, but does have the skill to stay in his hip pocket more often than not. Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,300, DK $6,500) will then see the capable coverage of Patrick Robinson, who has actually done a better job of restricting fantasy points per route this season, per PFF. Thomas is the preferred option for me, as he remains a top target for Osweiler (31 targets in Brock’s three starts), but he’s a tournament play at best. If Owen Daniels misses out due to injury, Vernon Davis (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) is an appealing option at tight end against the second-worst tight end defense (per DVOA), but if both tight ends suit up, it’s tough to trust either one.

The Takeaway: One (or both) of the Denver running backs will have a big day against this weak San Diego run defense, and figuring out which one could bring you a big payday this weekend. The passing game could have a decent game against a struggling pass defense, but there’s not a ton of upside and too much risk to trust them outside of a tournament lineup or two.

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: Tom Brady was the first QB to score more than two touchdowns against the Broncos this season, and just the third to score more than one. This is still an elite defense, and while Philip Rivers (FD $7,600, DK $6,600) is good, he’s not Tom Brady. The Broncos rank first in DVOA against the pass, first in weighted DVOA defense, first in numberFire’s pass defense, and last (in other words, “best” from a defensive perspective) at allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs. Rivers has stumbled against defenses with less talent than Denver’s, so I won’t think twice about passing on him this week.

Running Game: The Broncos rank sixth according to numberFire and Football Outsiders in terms of run defense, but have allowed backs to find the end zone 13 times this year, and, therefore, rank in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed. The actual running back run defense is elite, and rules out Melvin Gordon (FD $5,900, DK $3,400) from consideration, but Danny Woodhead (FD $5,700, DK $4,800) remains a PPR play against a team that has seen RBs catch 69 passes for 538 yards and five scores this year. There are better options (even in PPR formats) in better matchups, however, so I’ll probably just fade this backfield.

Pass Catchers: The Broncos only “flaw” against the pass is against tight ends, with a ranking of 15th against them according to DVOA (every other passing game position ranks fourth or better). Antonio Gates (FD $5,900, DK $4,900) is a weekly option at a thin tight end position, but he’s not fully healthy and hasn’t seen a big workload since returning to the field. None of the San Diego wideouts can be trusted to win matchups against the elite corners for Denver, so don’t go digging for value among these pass catchers.

The Takeaway: The Denver defense is elite, and the San Diego offense is injured and lacking in talent. Steer clear of the Chargers in daily fantasy this weekend.

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4