NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Four

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-12-20 09:11:38

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	44.5	19.25				-6	44.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	17	18	17		Offense	26.5	5	5	9
Opp. Defense	20.0	11	31	6		Opp. Defense	17.3	1	1	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	23	2	30	26		Denver Broncos	1	15	1	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	144	88	3	1067		Brown	147	100	7	1425
Sanders	108	57	4	793		Bryant	72	38	7	705
Latimer	11	6	1	60		Wheaton	58	32	3	589
Daniels	64	38	3	418		Miller	66	49	1	458

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Peyton Manning (DEN, Out), C.J. Anderson (DEN, Questionable)

DEN Matchup Rating: 3.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 5.0

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: The Denver offense has been struggling over the past month and a half, failing to score more than 17 points in all but one game since Week 9. Over that timeframe, the team has managed to win a few games thanks to their defense, but has struggled to move the ball consistently on offense. Brock Osweiler (FD $6,700, DK $5,100) has been a game manager for the Broncos in most of his starts, and when asked to throw often against the Raiders last week, he responded with a decent completion percentage, but a lack of big plays or scores. He seems to have limited upside in an offense that seeks to keep the ball on the ground for as long as gameflow allows. There’s just no evidence available that suggests Osweiler will ever be a 350/2/0 type of quarterback in 2015, and the odds for a 200/2/1 kind of game aren’t even that great. He may have room to grow as a passer as he gets his feet wet in the full-speed NFL game, but a middling matchup with a decent Pittsburgh defense (13th in DVOA) doesn’t seem like the right place for that to happen.

Running Game: The Steelers have been good at defending the run all season long, having allowed running backs to score only three touchdowns all season. They have allowed a nice game here and there, but generally they’ve limited the damage on the ground and forced teams to go to the air for points. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,400, DK $4,300) is the healthier and more trustworthy Denver back, and would be the pick if this matchup were appealing enough, but there are players at similar prices with better situations this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $6,800) is the favored target for Osweiler, and if you think the Broncos can find the end zone once or twice through the air against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, you have to assume it will be DT on the receiving end. Vernon Davis (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) had a big target total last week, but that came in a game which saw the Broncos throw more often than they intend to do in an average game. He had four or fewer targets in four of his five previous games with the Broncos. He’s tough to trust as just one of multiple tight ends in this offense. Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,100, DK $5,500) is starting to drop in price, but just isn’t seeing consistent opportunities, and is in an offense with a very low ceiling. Stick with Thomas in tournament lineups.

The Takeaway: The Broncos may win this game, but it won’t be because of an offensive explosion. The Denver passing game will be limited by their inexperienced quarterback, and the running game will likely be thwarted by a strong defense. Demaryius Thomas is the player you should consider from this game, as he’s the top option in a passing game that could score a touchdown or two.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: If you’re rostering players from the Pittsburgh passing game, it’s not because of the matchup. In fact, it’s in spite of the matchup. The Broncos rank first in DVOA against the pass, and last in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (by a fairly wide margin over the second best team). This is an elite defense that has limited even the best of passers over the course of this season. Tom Brady scored three touchdowns, and Josh McCown, Andrew Luck and Derek Carr all had two in their games against Denver, while every other passer had one or no scores. That’s a low ceiling and a poor median projection, but Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,000, DK $6,400) and company have succeeded in tough matchups in the past. However, Big Ben isn’t throwing touchdowns as often as he did a year ago, and seems to have a lower floor than we came to expect watching a healthy Roethlisberger with Brown and Bryant over the past 18 months. His price requires a couple of scores, which is certainly feasible, but there are other options at similar prices with less worrisome matchups and higher upsides. The Steeler passing game will not be much more contrarian than it will be this week, but I think that’s for good reason. I see little reason to roster Big Ben this week.

Running Game: The Broncos have allowed a few fantasy points to opposing backs this season (19th most in the NFL, a significant difference from their 32nd ranking against QB and WR), mainly by way of touchdowns (13 total) and receptions (74 for 600 yards). This isn’t indicative of their ability to stop the run, as they rank third in DVOA against the ground game. Plays involving running backs have simply been the best ways to score touchdowns this season against the Broncos, and if that’s the case again this weekend, then DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,000, DK $6,600) will be the top play from the Pittsburgh offense. Williams has 18 or more touches in four of his last five games, with upside for 30 touches. Even against a strong defense like Denver’s, that should result in 100 total yards, with a high chance of a touchdown. Williams simply isn’t priced like a back capable of seeing that much work for such a competent offense. Even if he has a similar game to the one he had against the strong Seattle defense, he won’t kill your lineups as he gains yards through the air and figures out a way into the end zone as a top red-zone option for his offense. Williams is the best way to get exposure to this offense for tournament lineups this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Last season, the Pittsburgh offense was great for DFS because it focused so heavily on three core skill position players. This season, however, a fourth has been added to the mix, as Markus Wheaton (FD $5,900, DK $3,400) is getting healthy target numbers recently. This takes away from the appeal of Antonio Brown (FD $8,800, DK $8,700) and Martavis Bryant (FD $7,100, DK $5,500), even though both are more talented and capable than Wheaton. A healthy Heath Miller (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) commands a few targets, as well, meaning the Pittsburgh offense is more split than it has been in quite a while. And in a tough matchup, we want as much volume as we can to overcome the lack of efficiency the wideouts will see against elite corners. It’s never easy to fade Brown or Bryant, but they’re easy candidates to set aside in favor of Jones, Hopkins, Megatron, Alshon and others this weekend. Miller, on the other hand, plays a position which has been able to produce at times against the Broncos, and that makes him viable in tournaments.

The Takeaway: DeAngelo Williams and Heath Miller are my preferred plays from the Pittsburgh offense, but I can’t blame you for rolling with the normal passing game options. They’re very good at what they do, and may overcome the tough matchup in spectacular fashion. I just don’t think the odds are good enough to justify use in daily fantasy lineups, especially if you’re only building a few teams.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

Miami Dolphins						San Diego Chargers
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	46	22.25				-1.5	46	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.3	24	17	20		Offense	19.2	28	3	31
Opp. Defense	25.7	27	13	27		Opp. Defense	25.5	26	25	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	12	27	8	17		Miami Dolphins	24	29	28	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Landry	135	90	5	1027		Floyd	58	26	3	492
Parker	28	13	2	208		Johnson	65	45	3	497
Stills	50	22	3	392		Inman	39	21	2	301
Cameron	62	29	2	341		Gates	69	45	4	497

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rishard Matthews (MIA, Questionable), Stevie Johnson (SD, Doubtful), Ladarius Green (SD, Questionable)

MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5
SD Matchup Rating: 6.0

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) is a very tough quarterback to figure out. Earlier this season, he was a trainwreck, throwing multiple interceptions ni three straight games surrounding the firing of his head coach. He then broke out with a four touchdown game, and has since mixed in disappointing performances with decent ones. There’s not a lot to trust or like about Tannehill, but a matchup with the Chargers does just enough to keep him in consideration. The Bolts rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, but haven’t allowed a ton of production through the air this season, mainly because they are such an easy team to run against, and a few of their games have been uncompetitive. Tannehill is an interesting pick for a lineup or two this weekend.

Running Game: Lamar Miller (FD $6,700, DK $6,300) only got 12 touches in last week’s loss to the Giants, but he scored twice, and paid off those who saw the sneaky value in the underused Miami back. He now has two respectable performances in a row, and will face a San Diego defense that ranks second to last in DVOA run defense. It’s been a few weeks since a running back has scored against the Chargers, but Miller is talented and in a better situation than some of the players to line up across from the San Diego defense in the past month, so he can be considered in all formats.

Pass Catchers: An injury to Brandon Flowers has shuffled the deck at corner for the Chargers, forcing them to move Patrick Robinson outside and bring in a new slot corner. This is a great situation for Jarvis Landry (FD $7,100, DK $6,300), who operates out of the slot and will now get to face a defender who couldn’t possibly be ready to handle a high-volume WR1 who plays from an interior position. Landry had 18 targets last week, and has double-digit targets in four of his last six. His touchdowns have been a bit thin, and the Chargers don’t allow many scores to opposing wideouts, but he always has the potential to reach value on catches and yards alone, especially on DraftKings. This should be a competitive game, and the Dolphins will need to keep it in the air, and when they throw, it goes to Landry. DeVante Parker (FD $5,900, DK $4,300) and Kenny Stills (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) are the other key players among the receivers, assuming Rishard Matthews does not return, but neither is worthy of much consideration since the Chargers have talented corners on the outside.

The Takeaway: The Dolphins have a favorable matchup against a hurting and struggling San Diego defense. Jarvis Landry is a solid play in all formats, as is Lamar Miller, while Ryan Tannehill is viable in GPPs.

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: Since starting the season on a record-setting pace, Philip Rivers (FD $7,400, DK $5,500) has completely fallen off the map. He has no touchdowns in three of his last four starts, and even though he faces a bad Miami pass defense, he’s just a secondary GPP play. Over the last three weeks, capable veteran quarterbacks with consistency issues (Manning, Fitzpatrick) have done well against this defense, and Rivers certainly falls into the same category. Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor also had big games against Miami, who rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the QB position on the season. Everything sets up for Rivers to have a nice game at home, but he’s worthy of a spot in your tournament lineups, but you can’t trust him in anything resembling a majority of your entries.

Running Game: Danny Woodhead (FD $5,300, DK $4,200) has faded into obscurity after holding a nice role at the beginning of the season, yet it’s not because Melvin Gordon (FD $5,200, DK $3,800) is playing better. The rookie seems to simply be in the midst of an audition for next year, when the Chargers hope to be healthier and make some important changes to a team that shouldn’t be as bad as they are at the moment. Gordon doesn’t score touchdowns, and Woodhead doesn’t play often enough to be fantasy relevant, especially since neither is particularly effective behind a patchwork offensive line. The Dolphins are a favorable matchup, but the Chargers move the ball, it will almost certainly be through the air. This is a situation to avoid.

Pass Catchers: With Stevie Johnson unlikely to be back, Malcom Floyd (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) and a returning Dontrelle Inman (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) will lead the way at receiver for the Bolts. The targets bounce around from healthy player to healthy player on a weekly basis, but with Johnson out and Floyd in, Floyd appears to be the top option among wideouts. With that said, Antonio Gates (FD $5,800, DK $4,600) is the top receiving option, and is even more valuable if Ladarius Green sits out. We probably won’t know for sure in time to make lineup decisions for the full weekend slate, but it’s safe to assume that Gates is safe enough to roster, with upside if he gets a boost from Green’s eventual absence. The Dolphins have been pretty good against tight ends this season, ranking 22nd in points allowed to the position despite ranking in the top ten against every other group this year. The DVOA backs this up, as Football Outsiders ranks the Miami defense as one of the worst at defending WR1 and WR2, but middle of the pack against tight ends. Still, Gates is a star player at a thin position, and should see the most targets on his team. He’s a solid play for tournaments.

The Takeaway: Rivers, Floyd and Gates make up the veteran trio of daily fantasy options for the Chargers in this one. Dontrelle Inman is also an option as the secondary receiver, as the Dolphins rank 30th at defending WR2 this year, per DVOA.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers

Cincinnati Bengals						San Francisco 49ers
Sunday – 8:30 p.m.						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4.5	40.5	22.5				4.5	40.5	18
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.2	4	11	14		Offense	14.5	32	30	21
Opp. Defense	24.2	19	27	31		Opp. Defense	17.6	2	18	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	16	32	24	8		Cincinnati Bengals	2	11	12	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	115	76	8	1169		Boldin	88	51	2	617
Sanu	42	27	1	399		Smith	46	24	3	546
Jones	85	53	4	689		Patton	46	25	1	301
Eifert	70	48	12	564		McDonald	30	21	2	218

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyler Eifert, Andy Dalton (CIN, Out)

CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
SF Matchup Rating: 1.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: AJ McCarron (FD $6,000, DK $5,400) will start under center for the Bengals due to an injury to Andy Dalton, and gets a reasonable matchup for his first full game under center. The 49ers rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, allowing the third-highest completion percentage in the league and the second highest yards per attempt. There haven’t been that many touchdown passes thrown against the Niners, but that’s because it hasn’t been regularly necessary to throw to keep up with the San Francisco offense. McCarron had a couple of touchdowns and some big plays last week in relief of Dalton, and appears to be capable of running the Bengals offense as intended. But the 49ers will be playing at home in this contest, and they have yet to allow more than 20 points to an opponent in a home game, while allowing at least 20 in every road game. A first career start in a hostile environment with home/road splits against you doesn’t seem like a great spot to invest for daily fantasy purposes.

Running Game: No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Niners. And while it would be nice to have a slightly more clear backfield situation to take advantage of that matchup, we can trust that Jeremy Hill (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will continue to get touches, and Giovani Bernard (FD $5,600, DK $4,500) will continue to do a lot with the few touches he gets. If Bernard were named the starter and guaranteed 15-20 touches, he’d be a must play, but with Hill still leading the way, things aren’t as clear. Hill has been disappointing all season, but gets goal-line reps and is the most likely Bengal to score. Both are tournament options, with Bernard preferred in PPR, just in case the game stays competitive and the Bengals are forced to throw. This would bring Bernard into the game as a check-down option, and give him plenty of chances to gain yards against a bad defense.

Pass Catchers: A.J. Green (FD $8,700, DK $7,900) continues to be a WR1, no matter the circumstances around him. With Tyler Eifert sitting out, he’ll be the team’s primary threat in the red zone as well as the top receiver between the 20s. Even if you don’t trust McCarron, Green will still muscle his way open or get deep for a catch or two. He’s a strong GPP candidate. Marvin Jones (FD $6,100, DK $4,200) has carved out a role as the secondary option in the passing game over the past few weeks, and he should see his targets locked in with Eifert out. The Niners struggle against all sorts of receivers, so he is in play as well, but it’s doubtful that both he and Green reach value. Pick and choose which one you prefer, as both players move around the formation and won’t have a big matchup advantage against any particular corner.

The Takeaway: The Bengals face a 49ers team that is much better at home than on the road, and that casts a shadow of doubt over all of the offensive options. Add in the presence of an unproven backup QB, and it’s just tough to roll with many Cincy players in your lineups. Hill and Bernard are both viable, while Green and Jones are strong tournament plays.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) has been respectable since taking over for Colin Kaepernick earlier this season, but the Bengals have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Gabbert has thrown for more than one touchdown only once in his five starts. There are too many good options at QB to trust Gabbert against a talented defense.

Running Game: Shaun Draughn (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) is locked into the lead spot in the Niners backfield, but this week against the Bengals, he doesn’t have a ton of upside. The Bengals have allowed only eight total touchdowns to backs this season, and rank 10th in DVOA against the run, but they have allowed the tenth most receptions to opposing backs. That’s where Draughn can thrive, and he’s viable in PPR as the Niners seek to move the ball in chunks of yards against a good defensive team.

Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,700, DK $3,900) is the best offensive weapon the Niners have, but he’ll face a formidable foe in slot corner Leon Hall this weekend. Even if he moves outside, he’ll see some coverage from Adam Jones, so there aren’t going to be a ton of open looks for the veteran this week. The tight end situation for the Niners is a mess, but Vance McDonald (FD $4,600, DK $2,500) appears to be ready to return and could see a handful of targets against a middle of the road tight end defense. He’s a mediocre punt play option.

The Takeaway: The Niners face a talented defense this weekend, and don’t have a ton of skill position talent to rely upon for DFS lineups. Draughn is the top play, especially in PPR games.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Detroit Lions						New Orleans Saints
Monday – 8:30 p.m.						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	50.5	23.75				-3	50.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.5	23	9	32		Offense	24.8	11	2	24
Opp. Defense	30.5	32	30	32		Opp. Defense	25.8	28	11	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	32	30	18	32		Detroit Lions	18	16	13	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	123	71	7	981		Cooks	103	64	7	877
Tate	112	76	4	716		Snead	80	53	3	804
Moore	41	27	4	321		Colston	63	43	3	481
Ebron	53	34	4	384		Watson	86	61	4	712

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

DET Matchup Rating: 7.0
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: The Saints are the worst defense in terms of DVOA against the pass, DVOA against tight ends, weighted DVOA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and tight ends. They have allowed nearly a half yard more per attempt than any other team this season, they’ve allowed seven more touchdown passes than any other team, and are allowing touchdown passes at an 8% clip, highest in the league by a wide margin. This is a horrible defensive unit, one that even Matthew Stafford (FD $7,800, DK $6,100) should be able to pick apart. Stafford has nine touchdowns in his last three games, with only one interception, so he’s playing well enough to trust heading into this great matchup. Start him in any format.

Running Game: The Saints are bad against the run, as well, ranking 27th in DVOA and third in fantasy points allowed. They’re subpar at defending backs in the passing game, but are mainly just terrible at stopping the run, allowing backs to gain more than five yards per carry on the season. Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,300, DK $3,900) appeared to have taken over the backfield from a rushing standpoint, but Joique Bell (FD $5,300, DK $4,100) is very much still involved, and that drags down the value for both players. Theo Riddick (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) is seemingly always a PPR play, and if this game remains competitive, he’ll get his fair share of looks in the passing game. Abdullah is the back I want if I’m taking a chance on one of the early down guys, while Riddick is a PPR GPP play.

Pass Catchers: The Saints rank 29th in DVOA against WR1, and Calvin Johnson (FD $8,000, DK $6,900) is the epitome of a WR1. He’s viable in all formats. Golden Tate (FD $6,900, DK $5,500) has been more heavily involved in the offense as of late, and with this game likely turning into a shootout, I like his chances of breaking a big play or two, and hauling in a handful of passes. He’s a strong tournament play, possibly even in a double stack with Stafford and Megatron. And while Eric Ebron (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has been inconsistent this season, he’s facing the league’s worst tight end defense (by a wide margin), and has one fewer tight end to compete with as Brandon Pettigrew is out for the season. He’s a solid tournament play for a cheap price.

The Takeaway: The running back situation for the Lions is frustrating in such a good matchup, but every other Detroit offensive skill position player is viable against the terrible Saints defense.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: There hasn’t been a lot of upside involved in facing the Detroit defense this season as a quarterback, as the team ranks 15th in points allowed to opposing QBs with consistent performances all year. Carson Palmer is the only QB to throw for more than two touchdowns, which means Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr are among those limited to just two passing scores against the Lions. Drew Brees (FD $8,000, DK $6,600) would need more than two passing touchdowns to keep up with all of the other great options on this weekend slate, and while he stands a good chance of doing so, I don’t think it’s something we can predict with confidence. He’s definitely viable in tournaments, but Stafford is the only cash game option in this Monday night game that should feature tons of points.

Running Game: The Lions are like the Steelers in that they are as average as can be on defense, ranking in the middle of the road in a lot of categories. This means Tim Hightower (FD $6,300, DK $3,900) gets a shot against a team no better than the one he gained 85 yards and a touchdown against a week ago, but at a slightly higher price in DFS. He’s priced in the right range now, along with other backs (Hill, Gore) who offer questionable efficiency and upside, but solid potential for touches and a score or two. I would use Hightower in a lineup or two, as I think he could score two or three touchdowns, but don’t expect a ton of yards from the veteran back on the comeback trail.

Pass Catchers: Darius Slay doesn’t normally shadow players into the slot, per Pro Football Focus, but he will likely follow Brandin Cooks around when he’s lined up on the outside for most of this game. Slay is a tough matchup, and it’s enough of a reason to reduce expectations for Cooks. Willie Snead (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) and Marques Colston (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) are more appealing, but are tough to choose between. That’s why my preferred Saints pass catcher is Benjamin Watson (FD $5,600, DK $4,800), as the Lions rank fifth in points allowed to tight ends and 30th in DVOA against the position. He’s cash game viable and a strong play in GPPs.

The Takeaway: The Lions are a better defense than the Saints, but the Saints will be playing at home in primetime, and will likely need to score a ton of points to keep up with their opponent. I like Brees, Hightower and Watson in tournaments, while the latter can be used in cash games as well.

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4