NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Three
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
| Dallas Cowboys | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 43 | 18.5 | -6 | 43 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.6 | 30 | 30 | 10 | Offense | 24.4 | 13 | 27 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 17 | 23 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 23.1 | 15 | 5 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 21 | 22 | 26 | 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 28 | 6 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 72 | 31 | 3 | 401 | Watkins | 75 | 44 | 9 | 828 | |
| Williams | 74 | 40 | 3 | 605 | Woods | 80 | 47 | 3 | 552 | |
| Beasley | 66 | 45 | 3 | 454 | Hogan | 52 | 33 | 2 | 409 | |
| Witten | 94 | 70 | 2 | 642 | Clay | 78 | 51 | 3 | 528 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL, Doubtful), Cole Beasley, Jason Witten (DAL, Questionable), LeSean McCoy (BUF, Doubtful), Charles Clay, Karlos Williams (BUF, Questionable)
DAL Matchup Rating: 2.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: The Dallas passing offense hasn’t gained over 300 yards since Week 1, and has gone over 200 yards in only two of their last six. Kellen Moore (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will get the start for Dallas, and he’s really only auditioning for a roster spot in 2016 and beyond, as his play against New York did not merit another chance under center for a team hoping to win football games. Buffalo does allow points to opposing passers, but the limited Moore won’t score enough to justify rostering him over more proven bargain options.
Running Game: Darren McFadden (FD $7,000, DK $4,900) has an incredible 211 yards on just 25 carries over his last two games, but therein lies the problem. McFadden only has 25 carries combined over the past two weeks, after regularly seeing 20+ touches per game earlier this season. He is playing extremely well, but there is no reason for Dallas to push him hard as the season winds to a close. And if the game isn’t going their way, they’ll gladly set McFadden aside and focus on the passing game. He offers interesting potential against a Buffalo defense that is really struggling (30th against run per Football Outsiders, and 31st overall in weighted DVOA defense, which favors recent performances), but that’s best reserved for GPP contests.
Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant (FD $7,000, DK $5,500) is dealing with an injury, and the Cowboys have no reason to rush him back to the field. Despite being one of Moore’s top targets when the two were on the field together, he can’t be trusted in such a struggling offense. The same goes for every other Dallas wideout. Just avoid this team’s offense outside of McFadden in a GPP lineup or two.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys have an appealing matchup with the Bills this weekend, but their offense has been destroyed by injuries and a lack of depth. McFadden is the only player worthy of consideration this week.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: The Bills have a slow offense, and the Cowboys are even slower. This is going to make the Buffalo offense tough to trust despite their heavy favorite status. Thankfully, Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,700, DK $5,500) has been compensating for his lack of passing volume by chipping in as a runner more often lately, with four straight weeks of 25+ rushing yards on 5+ attempts. Taylor will now face a Dallas defense that ranks 16th against the pass per DVOA, but has limited the upside of opposing QBs thanks to their tempo and defensive philosophy. Taylor has a decent floor, but a low ceiling, and is a mediocre option in DFS this week.
Running Game: LeSean McCoy is almost guaranteed to miss this week’s game, which means Karlos Williams (FD $5,400, DK $4,500) and Mike Gillislee (FD $5,300, DK $4,500) will handle the running back duties for Buffalo. Playing running back against the Cowboys is a great spot, especially for such cheap players, as Dallas ranks 27th in DVOA against the run, and fifth in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. Williams is dealing with an injury of his own, but should play, and would be the preferred option. There has only been one game this season in which Williams touched the ball six or more times and did not score. Meanwhile, Gillislee has provided touchdowns and big plays in limited touches over the past couple of weeks and may see an uptick in usage with McCoy out, but his role isn’t secure enough to trust outside of a tournament lineup or two.
Pass Catchers: The Dallas defense ranks 31st against opposing WR1 per DVOA, and Sammy Watkins (FD $7,700, DK $6,700) is a bona fide WR1. He has double-digit targets in three of his last four games, and touchdowns in four straight. He’s a bit boom-or-bust due to the limited nature of the Buffalo passing attack and the tempo and game script of this matchup, but his upside is through the roof. He’s a very strong wide receiver option this weekend. With all of the injuries around the Buffalo offense, it’s tough to find another pass catcher to trust, but Chris Hogan (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) would be the guy if you don’t want to spend up for Watkins in a stack with Taylor. Robert Woods and Charles Clay are both out, so Hogan should see a boost in his usage as a short-yardage receiving option.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys do not have a great defense, but their scheme allows them to limit fantasy points despite this lack of efficiency. That means the Bills are tough to trust, but Sammy Watkins and Karlos Williams are top plays, while Tyrod Taylor and Chris Hogan are all worthy of a few spots in your GPP lineups.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Chicago Bears | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.6 | 23 | 23 | 14 | Offense | 22.2 | 17 | 25 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.2 | 21 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 20 | 3 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18 | 8 | 21 | 19 | Chicago Bears | 22 | 11 | 12 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 94 | 54 | 4 | 807 | Evans | 131 | 66 | 3 | 1048 | |
| Royal | 44 | 32 | 1 | 216 | Jackson | 62 | 33 | 3 | 543 | |
| Bellamy | 27 | 14 | 1 | 165 | Humphries | 36 | 26 | 1 | 250 | |
| Miller | 38 | 27 | 5 | 370 | Seferian-Jenkins | 28 | 16 | 3 | 230 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller (CHI, Questionable), Vincent Jackson (TB, Out)
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
TB Matchup Rating: 5.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: It would be a stretch so say that the Tampa Bay pass defense is “good” or even “passable,” as they rank 24th in DVOA and 29th in numberFire’s rankings. But they rank 16th in points allowed to opposing passers thanks to a “bend, don’t break” mentality that has strengthened as the season has progressed. Since Week 7, the Bucs have not allowed more than two touchdowns to any single opposing QB in a game. Over that same timeframe, Jay Cutler (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) has more 0 TD games (two) than 3+ TD games (one). With his top wideout either out or limited, going against a team that sits back and prevents big plays from opposing passing games, this seems like a generally terrible spot for Cutler in DFS.
Running Game: The Bucs rank fourth in DVOA against the run, and 11th in DVOA against backs in the passing game. They’ve limited high-volume backs to fewer than four yards per attempt in four straight games, while also preventing anything substantial from happening in the passing game from running backs. Devonta Freeman was able to catch ten passes, but didn’t do much with them, which is really the only reason why I’d want to roster either Matt Forte (FD $8,100, DK $6,500) or Jeremy Langford (FD $5,100, DK $3,400) this week. Both backs have had their opportunities as the lead receiver out of the backfield in recent weeks, and if the Bucs are sitting back and playing a more conservative pass defense, there should be room to catch a few passes underneath, even if a tackle comes immediately thereafter. On PPR sites, that’s worthy of a GPP flier, but otherwise, avoid this tough matchup with a great run defense from Tampa.
Pass Catchers: If Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,800, DK $7,200) tries to play, I don’t think you can trust him, even in a favorable matchup with the Bucs. He’ll see a few targets and may catch a touchdown, but he’s not going to be 100%, and shouldn’t be a core play for DFS gamers. If Jeffery is out, that opens up the field for Eddie Royal (FD $4,700, DK $3,200), Marc Mariani (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) and Zach Miller (FD $5,600, DK $4,000). Miller has essentially taken over the Martellus Bennett role in the offense, making him a possibility at the TE position no matter the matchup. The Bucs are average at defending the position, which does nothing to improve or diminish Miller’s top-10 tight end status. Royal is viable whether or not Alshon plays, as the Bucs rank dead last in DVOA against WR2s, and if Jeffery sits out, Mariani should step into a bigger role out of the slot.
The Takeaway: The Buccaneers have been playing well enough lately to cast a bit of doubt over Chicago’s offensive weapons as DFS assets. If Alshon Jeffery sits out, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller are strong plays, but otherwise, there are nothing but tournament plays here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: It’s not always pretty, but Jameis Winston (FD $7,300, DK $5,500) seems to find his way to a decent fantasy stat line every weekend. The Bucs would rather not see their rookie passer throw the ball 50 times, as he did against the Rams, and in better game flow situations he would throw about half as often. This week, he’ll face a Chicago defense that appeared to be playing strong football until giving up five total touchdowns to Teddy Bridgewater. They allowed that many scores to the last three quarterbacks they faced, combined, and one of those players was Aaron Rodgers. A consistent but inefficient quarterback versus an inconsistent defense means we’re taking a bit of a gamble, but I think Winston can return value at home in a moderately good matchup.
Running Game: Running backs have been relative disappointments against the Bears for three straight weeks, yet the team still ranks dead last in DVOA against the run, and second-to-last in numberFire’s run rankings. In other words, make no mistake, this is still a bad run defense, and the lack of big numbers from Adrian Peterson, Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, and Shaun Draughn were not a sign of any sort of noteworthy improvement. The Bears don’t allow a ton of rushing touchdowns to backs, and Doug Martin (FD $8,100, DK $6,600) hasn’t scored all that many rushing touchdowns, but this could be the week both of those statistics regress to the mean. Martin has 18 or more carries in nine games so far this season, which means the odds of a good workload are in our favor. Also, Martin has scored all of his touchdowns at home this year, and the Bucs are the hosts in this contest. Martin is a top play in any format.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $8,200, DK $7,300) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) are the only Bucs receivers with the volume, talent and role to be worthy of consideration this week. The Bears rank 30th in DVOA against opposing WR, and 27th against tight ends, so both have favorable matchups, as well. Neither can be trusted in cash games, especially not Evans, but both are strong GPP plays.
The Takeaway: The Bucs are home favorites, and should game flow actually favor the Bucs, we should see plenty of running plays and a conservative game that limits both offenses. That means Doug Martin is the best play of the bunch, while Winston, Evans and ASJ are all in play for tournaments.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
| Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 47.5 | 27.25 | 7 | 47.5 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.1 | 1 | 24 | 3 | Offense | 21.6 | 19 | 6 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 14 | 10 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 10 | 6 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9 | 29 | 2 | 27 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 17 | 11 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 42 | 25 | 4 | 388 | Jones | 181 | 118 | 7 | 1544 | |
| Ginn | 94 | 43 | 10 | 790 | White | 60 | 37 | 1 | 429 | |
| Funchess | 54 | 24 | 4 | 353 | Hardy | 27 | 15 | 0 | 145 | |
| Olsen | 116 | 71 | 7 | 1048 | Tamme | 72 | 51 | 1 | 567 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR, Out), Tevin Coleman (ATL, Out)
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Another week, another chance for the league’s future MVP to show off against a struggling defense. Just a couple of weeks ago, Cam Newton (FD $9,300, DK $7,500) threw for 265 yards and three scores against the Falcons, one of his more modest outputs over the second half of the season. Over the past five games, Newton has scored 19 total touchdowns, and that includes a game against Dallas which saw his team score 33 points, but Newton only involved in one scoring play. Newton is on fire, and will continue to carry the Carolina offense as they pursue a perfect record on the season. The Falcons rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass, and 21st against the run. And while they have limited fantasy point scoring for opposing passers for most of the season, their level of competition hasn’t always been great, and the underlying metrics reveal that this is an average defensive team at best. Newton is an option in any format thanks to his high floor and high ceiling.
Running Game: With Jonathan Stewart sidelined due to injury, Cameron Artis-Payne (FD $5,600, DK $4,300) will likely lead the way on the ground for the Panthers from the running back position. Obviously Cam Newton will get his fair share of rushing attempts, but CAP saw 16 touches last week despite not being named the “starter,” as Mike Tolbert (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has a pretty clearly defined role as a short-yardage back, and Fozzy Whittaker (FD $4,700, DK $3,600) appears to have been passed by Artis-Payne on early downs as a featured option in the running game. The Falcons rank 21st in DVOA against the run, and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs on the season, so apart from some uncertainty about volume, everything sets up perfectly for Artis-Payne. The rookie out of Auburn is viable for cash games and a strong tournament bargain, especially on FanDuel.
Pass Catchers: One week after seeing only three targets, but turning them into two long touchdowns, “(player-popup)Ted Ginn Jr (FD $7,100, DK $4,900) saw a Panthers wideout season-high 14 targets (besting his own mark of ten), and found the end zone twice yet again. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to Ginn (not volume, not catching the ball, not anything), but the upside is tremendous. According to Pro Football Focus, Ginn runs most of his routes from the left side of the formation, meaning he will avoid Desmond Trufant more often than not. This is great news, as Robert Alford allows over twice as many fantasy points per route run, according to PFF. No other Panthers wideout has the floor, upside, or appeal for daily fantasy football, so we instead turn our attention to Greg Olsen (FD $6,800, DK $7,000), who has seen his price creep up to Gronk-like levels. Now that he’s priced like a strong WR2 and not a WR3 or bargain option, he holds less appeal for cash games, but is still viable in a stack with Newton. He didn’t have to do much in a 38-0 win against Atlanta a few weeks ago, but if this game stays more competitive, he will get to run routes against a defense ranked fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. This is a great opportunity to pay up to be contrarian.
The Takeaway: Cam Newton is a top QB option, while Cameron Artis-Payne is a very strong RB play, as well. Ted Ginn and Greg Olsen are probably better as stacks with Newton in GPP contests, but both have big upside this weekend.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) hasn’t been a good fantasy asset all season, and despite a couple of high-scoring games, the Panthers still rank second in DVOA against the pass and 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing passers. The Falcons are heavy underdogs, even at home, and should be largely avoided for daily fantasy purposes.
Running Game: Devonta Freeman (FD $8,500, DK $7,400) is still priced like the ultra-productive back we saw for a few weeks earlier this year, when he was scoring multiple touchdowns seemingly every week. Now, he’s a catch-dependent PPR back with terrible rushing efficiency numbers (under 3.5 yards per carry in each of his last three games), and should be used with caution against a top-ten rush defense from Carolina. Game flow won’t help Freeman remain involved as a runner in this one, but it could increase his PPR potential, and those are the formats in which I would begin to consider the Atlanta back.
Pass Catchers: Despite solid volume, Julio Jones (FD $8,600, DK $8,300) has been inconsistent in his production thanks to poor quarterback play and a general lack of efficiency in the Atlanta offense. He finally found the end zone again last week against a terrible Jacksonville offense, but will have a much tougher time against the Panthers, who rank second in DVOA against opposing WR1s thanks to Josh Norman. Jones is not worth the investment, nor is any other Falcon pass catcher.
The Takeaway: The Falcons may be playing at home, and may be expected to score 2-3 touchdowns, but their star players are priced too high for this tough of a matchup, and the entire offense can be faded for DFS purposes.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
| New York Giants | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.6 | 6 | 7 | 24 | Offense | 21.1 | 21 | 31 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 23 | 32 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 13 | 9 | 13 | 11 | New York Giants | 31 | 25 | 24 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham | 151 | 91 | 13 | 1399 | Wallace | 63 | 36 | 2 | 446 | |
| Harris | 55 | 35 | 4 | 402 | Diggs | 77 | 47 | 4 | 706 | |
| Randle | 78 | 51 | 6 | 638 | Wright | 44 | 29 | 0 | 393 | |
| Tye | 50 | 34 | 2 | 369 | Rudolph | 69 | 47 | 4 | 442 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG, Suspended), Dwayne Harris (NYG, Questionable), Adrian Peterson (MIN, Probable)
NYG Matchup Rating: 4.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
New York Giants
Quarterback: Not every team’s passing game is impacted with the loss of a star receiver, but for the Giants, the lack of Odell Beckham Jr. will be felt on all fronts on offense. Eli Manning (FD $7,400, DK $5,600) has thrown more than twice as many yards and touchdowns to Beckham than any other receiver, and it’s quite clear that Beckham is the most talented player on offense, and his presence opens up the rest of the field for his teammates. Manning has multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games, including a six-touchdown performance over a month ago, and will face a defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of their last six games. However, outside of Russell Wilson, no QB has scored more than twice against the Vikings, and Manning will be without his best player. That limits his ceiling enough to take him out of consideration for virtually every type of DFS contest.
Running Game: After spending a few weeks trying to spread the ball around to four different backs, the Giants have focused their attention on their best all-around back as of late. Rashad Jennings (FD $5,700, DK $3,500) has 38 carries and five targets over his last two games, representing his two highest carry totals of the season. He found the end zone in an impressive 107-yard effort against a strong Carolina defense, and should he see a similar volume against the mediocre Vikings defense, he’ll make for a solid daily fantasy option. The Vikings rank 25th in points allowed to opposing backs, but that has started to come unglued as of late, with 100 total yards allowed to Eddie Lacy, Tevin Coleman, Thomas Rawls, David Johnson and Matt Forte over the past five weeks. Those backs combined for only two touchdowns, but if Jennings gets to 100 yards from scrimmage with a catch or two, he’s already given you most of what you need to return value. Game flow may be a concern for Jennings, as Shane Vereen (FD $5,300, DK $3,900) will come in and catch passes if the Giants are chasing the game. But in what was a lopsided affair for three quarters last week, Jennings still picked up over 100 yards, and has good odds to do so again this week. He’s a strong GPP play, while Vereen is a very speculative option in PPR formats.
Pass Catchers: Without Beckham on the field, Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $3,500), Will Tye (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) and Dwayne Harris (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) will be the primary pass catchers for the Giants. The Vikings rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends, so if we assume all three of these players will see a couple of extra targets, it’s Tye whom I want to target most heavily of this group. He has target totals of 6, 7, 8, 4, 5, 8 over his last six games, and has a touchdown in two straight games. I think we can expect eight or more targets, including a couple in the red zone, and one score would allow Tye to easily hit value on most sites. Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $3,500) will see his fair share of snaps against Xavier Rhodes, who PFF grade as a player in need of replacement, which bodes well for the streaky receiver. Meanwhile, Harris will run routes against Captain Munnerlyn, who is one of the better slot corners in the NFL, and will likely keep the shifty return man/receiver at bay. Tye and Randle are the best ways to get exposure to this passing offense, although expectations should be lowered without Beckham on the field.
The Takeaway: The Giants may struggle to get to their 20 implied point total without Odell Beckham, but the average Minnesota defense still provides a few opportunities for DFS value. Jennings and Tye are the top plays, while Randle is also worthy fo consideration.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,600, DK $5,200) has made things very difficult for daily fantasy players heading into Week 16. Prior to last week’s game against Chicago, Teddy never accounted for more than two touchdowns in a game and only twice broke 300 yards. That added up to limited upside and no real appeal for DFS. Then he proceeded to tear apart a decent Chicago pass defense for five total touchdowns on only 20 attempts and four rushes. He’ll now face a Giants defense that allowed seven touchdowns to Drew Brees and company not that long ago, and that ranks second in points allowed to opposing QBs. There may not be a player with a wider range of possible outcomes this week than Bridgewater. I could see him scoring five touchdowns again, or I could see a final line of 200/1/1. The odds of a good game are higher than usual thanks to the premium matchup, but with the Vikings preference to run the ball and Bridgewater’s limited volume, his upside is less frequently reached compared to other passers. Still, he’s viable in GPPs.
Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,200, DK $7,300) is almost certain to play despite dealing with a couple of injuries. The Vikings may not need to give it their all this week, and Peterson may not practice all that much, but he’s a superior athlete when compared to virtually every NFL player, let alone an average human, and he can be trusted to perform if he’s given the green light on Sunday. The Giants rank 19th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the tenth-most points to the position on the season, which is more than enough incentive to roll with the league’s best back, especially with so many other stars at the position sidelined with injuries. The risk of him being limited by his coaches is the only reason to avoid him in cash games, but that same risk will lower his ownership in tournaments, making him a very attractive play to go against the crowd who will flock to the cheaper options.
Pass Catchers: The only wide receiver with more than seven targets in a game since Week 8 for the Vikings is Stefon Diggs (FD $6,000, DK $4,400), who is unquestionably the best talent at the position for Minnesota. He only saw four targets last week, but since Bridgewater only threw 20 passes, that’s not a terrible share of the team’s passing offense. He splits red zone opportunities and doesn’t have a huge lead in targets over his teammates, so he’s not a lock to produce, but if he takes advantage of his targets, he is the most likely candidate to join Bridgewater in another breakout performance. Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) stands out as a solid option from a matchup perspective, as the Giants rank second in points allowed to tight ends on the season, and 22nd in DVOA against the position. However, his volume is impossible to trust, and he’s got unreliable hands that will almost certainly let his backers down this weekend. He’s too good to pass up on, but I’d rather get a piece of this passing attack through Diggs where possible.
The Takeaway: The Vikings have the opportunity to pile up the points against a bad New York defense (27th in weighted DVOA, which considers recent results more heavily). However, they have a conservative approach and a slow tempo, and may wind up just chewing up clock if they get a lead. Still, the upside is there to consider Bridgewater, Peterson, Diggs and Rudolph in tournaments.