NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Page Four
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders
| Baltimore Ravens | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | O.co Coliseum | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 13.0 | 27 | 32 | 25 | Offense | 13.0 | 27 | 22 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.3 | 32 | 19 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 15.3 | 2 | 17 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 21 | 29 | 7 | 28 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | Crabtree | 8 | 5 | 0 | 37 | |
| Aiken | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | Cooper | 9 | 5 | 0 | 47 | |
| Perriman | Streater | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |||||
| Gillmore | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | Rivera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
The Raiders and Ravens both struggled to 13-point performances in Week 1, with Oakland scoring twice on offense in garbage time, while Baltimore scored one touchdown via interception in a close, kinda ugly game against Denver. Considering both team’s scoring issues in Week 1, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Vegas total for this game is a bit low, but it is worth noting that both of these teams are in the top half of the league in pace. Are there any worthwhile fantasy targets as a result?
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Breshad Perriman (BAL, Knee, Out), Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL, Injuries, Probable), Derek Carr (OAK, Hand, Probable)
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
OAK Matchup Rating: 2.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: This is undoubtedly a coincidence and not something to make fantasy decisions off of, but in the game prior to his five-touchdown breakout on the road against the Buccaneers last season, Joe Flacco (FD $8,100, DK $6,400) failed to find the end zone in a disappointing loss against a top AFC rival while only scoring 13 points as a team. This is not actionable DFS information, but it is a sign that Flacco can bounce back and take advantage of a good matchup after a disappointing game, and I won’t be missing out on Flacco this weekend. The Raiders rank eighth in points allowed to quarterbacks since the start of last season, and are 28th in DVOA against the pass. Pro Football Focus has them outside the top 20 in both pass rushing and pass coverage over that timeframe.
Playing as a big favorite on the road, I really like Flacco’s chances of airing it out 25-30 times and finding the end zone at least twice. We know the upside is there for a 3-5 score game, something he accomplishes at least once per season. As a result, he’s my top tournament quarterback, but likely won’t be on all that many cash teams.
Running Game: If you ask Pro Football Focus or Football Outsiders what they think about the Oakland run defense, they’d tell you it’s an average group, capable of hanging in there against most NFL rushing attacks. If you asked a daily fantasy sports player, they’d tell you it’s a top matchup for any running game. Oakland has allowed the second-most points to backs over the last 17 games, but rank in the mid-teens on FO and PFF. This has me ever so slightly worried about Justin Forsett (FD $7,800, DK $6,200) on the road, as his game log over the past season and a week is littered with easy opponents to run against. Forsett has rushed for 95 yards or more in six games since the start of last season, and four of those have come against teams in the bottom five in DVOA run defense. The other two were against middle-of-the-pack San Diego and top-ten Tampa Bay, whom Forsett broke on big run against, carried it a few more times to run out the clock in a blowout, and then took a seat for the day against a team in the midst of an embarrassing beatdown.
Is it possible the Ravens could recreate that scenario again this weekend, with Forsett rushing for 120 yards against the Raiders as they wind down the clock with a healthy lead? Sure. But it’s also possible he’ll go for only 48 yards and no touchdowns as he did in a game against Jacksonville (and their surprisingly decent run defense) late last year. Forsett is a tournament option for rosters where you’re not lining up Flacco and a receiver from the Ravens, but I don’t think he’s cash viable, even as a pretty healthy favorite. The return to health of Lorenzo Taliaferro (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) won’t help matters, either. Forsett does have appeal in PPR formats, as his seven targets last week show signs that he may get a chance to catch the ball against a defense that ranked 24th in defending backs in the passing game last year.
Pass Catchers: The Raiders don’t have a lot of name-brand talent in the defensive backfield already, and last weekend saw them lose safety Nate Allen to an MCL injury, safety Charles Woodson to a dislocated shoulder, and possibly D.J. Hayden to an ankle injury. Corner T.J. Carrie had a solid game in coverage, per PFF, but Hayden struggled, and backup corner Neiko Thorpe also had a bad day at the office. Steve Smith (FD $6,700, DK $6,000) is the unquestioned number one receiver in Baltimore, and won’t face a defensive back capable of slowing him down, even at his advanced age. Smith ended last season with 11 or more targets in three of four games, and started off this season getting seven looks against a tough Denver defense. Most of his damage was done against old NFC South rivals last season, but he should be motivated enough to help his team bounce back after being shut out in Week 1. Kamar Aiken (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) was apparently on radars last week as a cheap option stepping into the starting lineup, but he wasn’t talented enough to do much against the impressive Denver secondary. He does become a decent option this week, although I’m not overly thrilled with his lacking track record of volume. Joe Flacco keyed in on Crockett Gillmore (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) on a few occasions during Week 1, and he might be the second-best receiving option the Ravens have. I’ll be focusing most of my attention on Smith for DFS purposes.
The Takeaway: Joe Flacco is a strong tournament option, but figuring out who he will throw to is a challenge. Steve Smith is the obvious answer, while Kamar Aiken, Justin Forsett and Crockett Gillmore will all likely be involved. Smith is the best fantasy option, while Forsett is in play, especially on PPR sites, but I’m not convinced he’s going to have a huge game some may expect against the Raiders. The defense is in play as huge favorites against an Oakland team that will likely turn the ball over.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Derek Carr (FD $6,100, DK $5,500) is hurting, a touchdown underdog, and facing a defense that PFF grades as the best at rushing the passer and Football Outsiders ranks in the top-12 in defending the pass. No thanks.
Running Game: Latavius Murray (FD $6,800, DK $5,800) had 18 touches for 80 yards in Week 1, including seven receptions. He’s going to be usable at some point this season, but a matchup with the Ravens isn’t that spot. Baltimore has allowed the fewest points to backs since the start of last season.
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper (FD $6,700, DK $6,400) and Michael Crabtree (FD $5,500, DK $4,100) saw most of the snaps and targets at receiver, while Seth Roberts (DK $3,000) was the other wide receiver seeing healthy amounts of action and attention in the passing game. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wideouts since Week 1 of 2014, but when you consider that both garbage time touchdowns for Oakland last week went to Marcel Reece (FD $4,800, DK $3,400), it’s easy to ignore this passing game altogether.
The Takeaway: I won’t blame you for trying to pick the Oakland receiver who will score a touchdown, as it’s almost certainly going to happen. It won’t be the receiver matched up with Jimmy Smith, which PFF expects to be Cooper. Otherwise, there’s nothing worth rostering on this side of this game.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
| Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 55 | 24.75 | -5.5 | 55 | 30.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 11 | 2 | 21 | Offense | 24.0 | 16 | 5 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 26 | 31 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 18.4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20 | 9 | 30 | 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 18 | 6 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Williams | 8 | 5 | 0 | 60 | Matthews | 13 | 10 | 0 | 102 | |
| Beasley | 6 | 4 | 0 | 49 | Agholor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Street | Huff | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | |||||
| Witten | 9 | 8 | 2 | 60 | Celek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
Two of last week’s favorite offenses face off against one another in what should be a high-scoring divisional clash. An interesting matchup between the league’s highest and lowest tempo offenses, Vegas expects more points in this one than any other game this week. So where will those points come from?
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL, Foot, Out)
DAL Matchup Rating: 8.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 8.0
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Last season, Tony Romo (FD $8,500, DK $7,100) only threw the ball more than 35 times twice. He never threw it more than 41 times in a game. To start this season, the Cowboys’ quarterback slung 45 passes out to his receivers, a byproduct of an unsettled running back situation and a competitive game against New York. We can expect more of the same against the Eagles, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks since the start of last year, and who rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass. Even without his star receiver, Romo is a core play in all formats this weekend.
Running Game: Joseph Randle (FD $6,700, DK $5,600) led the way for Dallas out of the backfield as a runner, carrying 16 times and looking like a capable back behind a talented offensive line on a couple of his carries. His playing time was significantly higher than that of Darren McFadden (FD $6,400, DK $4,200), but was rivaled by Lance Dunbar (FD $4,800, DK $3,000), who played in a Shane Vereen sort of role with 31 of his 32 snaps coming on passing plays. In a competitive road game against the Eagles, I would expect Dunbar to see a healthy amount of snaps yet again, especially as the Cowboys look to fill the Dez Bryant void in their offense. Randle is a tournament play thanks to his chances of being handed the ball in a goal-line situation, but Dunbar is my favored cash game back thanks to his expected volume in the passing game.
Pass Catchers: Terrance Williams (FD $6,300, DK $4,200) is this week’s Davante Adams. You’re not going to hurt your chances of a cash by putting him in your double-up or head to head lineups, because everyone else is going to have him, too. Williams saw eight looks in the passing game last week, the most for him since Week 8 of 2013. Williams has a knack for finding the end zone, and even if he’s not going to see a significant boost in targets with Dez Bryant out, his share of the passing game as it stands is enough to warrant attention in this matchup. The Eagles have allowed the most points to wide receivers since last year, giving up 21 touchdowns to the position last year, and another two in Week 1 this year. Williams is a near lock to score a touchdown, and that would go a long way toward paying off his salary.
Cole Beasley (FD $5,700, DK $3,300) is the player most likely to pick up targets in Bryant’s absence, as the shifty slot receiver has Tony Romo’s trust and has carved out a role in the offense even when everyone is healthy. His prices are low, but his chances of scoring a touchdown are, too, so I prefer him on DraftKings as a punt play. Devin Street (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is likely to step into a bigger role with Dez out, but he’s not a player I’m ready to invest in for daily fantasy purposes. Maybe I’m not being aggressive enough, but he’s a total unknown who saw seven targets as a rookie. Pass.
Jason Witten (FD $6,000, DK $4,300) held off Gavin Escobar (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) from a snaps perspective, and while Escobar did score, so did Witten, who had a huge game from the tight end position. Witten is the safest play at tight end this week.
The Takeaway: Load up on the passing game for Dallas, and consider Lance Dunbar as a punt thanks to his involvement in Tony Romo’s offense.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $7,500, DK $6,900) didn’t live up to his lofty expectations in Week 1, but his price remains reasonable and he showed signs of the quarterback we expected to see in the Chip Kelly offense. Dallas are a mixed bag when it comes to pass defense, with tougher-than-average numbers in PFF pass rush grades and fantasy points allowed, but below average DVOA and coverage grades. None of the numbers are scary enough to keep me from rostering Bradford, who tossed a whopping 52 passes in Week 1 and should do more of the same in Week 2. He’s a core play in any format.
Running Game: DeMarco Murray (FD $8,300, DK $7,000) scored twice on 12 touches in his Philadelphia debut, but apart from those scores, he did nothing to inspire confidence in his fantasy potential in this balanced offense. Ryan Mathews (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) and Darren Sproles (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) both saw snaps. And while the Cowboys can be run against, I’m not overly confident that this running game can be trusted for DFS purposes. In the rare lineup where I’m not getting exposure to the Philly passing game, I may roster Murray for the Narrative Street potential, but otherwise I’ll be taking it easy on the Philly running game.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $7,000, DK $7,100) got 13 targets on Monday night for the Eagles, and is the clear lead dog at receiver for this team. His disappointing drop to end the game is something that has been a concern for Matthews since his days in college, but he’s dropped passes before and should bounce back just fine in a high-scoring game. The Cowboys are a bit tough on receivers from a fantasy points allowed standpoint, ranking 28th in points given up to wideouts since the start of last year. But among the top fantasy performances against them last season, six of the top nine wide receiver games were posted by NFC East rival receivers. Matthews will line up against Tyler Patmon in the slot, and should be able to find open space for another nice, high-volume game. He’s also a top target in the red zone for this offense, and is among the favorites to score a touchdown.
But if you want a safer option based on the statistics we have on the Cowboys’ pass defense, Zach Ertz (FD $5,200, DK $3,600) is your man. Dallas has allowed the most points to tight ends since the start of last season, including big games to Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis a year ago. Ertz suited up despite injury concerns and saw eight targets in Week 1, and would turn another eight targets into a great fantasy performance against Dallas, should he be given the chance. He’s a top tight end play. The rest of the Philly passing game is too spread out and random to predict, so restrict your cash plays to these two options, especially since there are reports citing uncertainty in snap counts for the various other receivers for the Eagles.
The Takeaway: Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz are top plays at their positions, and can be used with confidence in all formats.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
| Seattle Seahawks | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 48.5 | 22.25 | -4 | 48.5 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.0 | 5 | 12 | 9 | Offense | 31.0 | 5 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 8 | 8 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 14.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 13 | 21 | 11 | 19 | Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 6 | 20 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 9 | 7 | 0 | 35 | Cobb | 5 | 5 | 1 | 38 | |
| Kearse | 10 | 8 | 0 | 76 | Adams | 8 | 4 | 0 | 59 | |
| Lockett | 4 | 4 | 0 | 34 | Jones | 4 | 4 | 2 | 51 | |
| Graham | 8 | 6 | 1 | 51 | Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 38 | |
A rematch of last year’s NFC Title game, the Packers will host the Seahawks after losing in the Pacific Northwest twice last year. Both games last year featured a healthy amount of points, and following Seattle’s Week 1 loss to St. Louis that included quite a bit of scoring, it should come as no surprise that Vegas expects the scoreboard to light up a bit in this one, despite the Seahawks’ status as a top NFL defense.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Randall Cobb (GB, Shoulder, Probable)
SEA Matchup Rating: 5.0
GB Matchup Rating: 7.5
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $8,500, DK $7,300) started off his season with a busy performance, throwing 41 times and running eight. That’s a career high in attempts, and attempts + carries for the Seattle quarterback, who was still relatively efficient, if not a bit conservative with his high volume. As a road underdog this week, we may see more of the same, and we’ll see it against a defense that allows more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Rams. The price just isn’t reflective of Wilson’s lack of upside, as only 20% of his passes traveled more than nine yards in the air, according to PFF. He’s viable in cash games, but doesn’t stand out as a top option in any way.
Running Game: Seattle relied on Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,500, DK $7,200) for quite a few touches in Week 1, as he carried the ball 18 times and was targeted on seven passes. Matt Forte had a big day against Green Bay in Week 1, and the Packers rank 25th in DVOA against the run, and 19th against backs in the passing game in last season’s Football Outsiders data. Even as underdogs, we can expect Lynch to be involved in the offense for Seattle, and he is, as always, a cash game option.
Pass Catchers: Jimmy Graham (FD $7,100, DK $5,800) saw eight targets, including a whopping four in the red zone, and secured one touchdown pass. He’ll face a Green Bay defense that isn’t special against tight ends, and lacks a star player who can keep up with the former basketball player. His price is a bit high compared to some of the other top options at his position, but his red zone opportunities should return in Week 2, and he has multiple touchdown upside. He’s a tournament play if you secure enough volume at other positions.
Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) and Doug Baldwin (FD $6,000, DK $4,200) both saw the heaviest volume in the passing game apart from Graham and Lynch, and if you expect another 40 passes out of Wilson in this high-scoring affair, either one is capable of hitting value if they’re seeing 25% of the targets. But Baldwin will see plenty of coverage from elite slot corner Casey Hayward, making Kearse my preferred play at the receiver spot for Seattle.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson is going to see more volume than usual as a road underdog, and Marshawn Lynch is a cash game play every week. Jimmy Graham and Jermaine Kearse are both red zone threats and should benefit from a high-scoring game, and are in play for tournaments.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,300, DK $8,300) was held to under 200 yards in both meetings with the Seahawks last season, and will be without his top receiver this weekend as well. But after watching the Rams throw for big yards in clutch moments against Seattle a week ago, there’s a glimmer of hope that Rodgers will be able to post decent fantasy numbers. That hope will have to willfully ignore the Seahawks imposing statistics against the pass (fewest points allowed to quarterbacks and receivers since the start of last year, top five in DVOA and PFF grades), and at such a high price, I’m not sure I want to bank on Rodgers this week in what should be a tough matchup.
Running Game: Running against the Seahawks is no easier than passing, and Eddie Lacy (FD $8,100, DK $7,200) didn’t have a ton of success against them last year. Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray and Tre Mason + Benny Cunningham are the only backs to have anything resembling a successful day at the office against the Seahawks since the start of last year, but it’s worth noting that all of those performances came in Seattle losses. If you follow Vegas’ lead and expect the Packers to win, Lacy might be the key to that victory. He’s a tournament option.
Pass Catchers: Richard Sherman defied convention last week by moving around the formation, stepping inside in three receiver sets to follow Tavon Austin rather than staying outside to cover Austin Pettis, Lance Kendricks or Jared Cook. He still played a healthy amount of snaps at his normal position out on the offense’s right, but the probability of him shadowing an injured Randall Cobb (FD $8,200, DK $7,400) exists this week. The Seahawks can’t be happy with how Week 1 went, so they may go back to the drawing board with their schemes, but it would make sense for Sherman to stick with the most talented receiver the Packers have. There’s too much uncertainty in what would already be a tough matchup to roster Cobb. I would feel comfortable picking a tight end against the Seahawks, but Richard Rodgers (FD $4,700, DK $2,500) only got three targets in Week 1. He has the best theoretical matchup, but isn’t a big enough part of the offense to be more than the most desperate of tournament fliers.
The Takeaway: Vegas likes the Packers to score nearly four touchdowns in this one, but I just don’t see where those points will come from. Aaron Rodgers may battle his way to a two-touchdown game, but I don’t expect a ton of production, and Eddie Lacy faces an uphill battle but is the most likely of the Packers to reach value. The receiving corps isn’t facing the Bears again, and lacks in talented options to entice me to spend any of my salary.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
| New York Jets | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 47 | 20 | -7 | 47 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.0 | 5 | 28 | 4 | Offense | 14.0 | 25 | 14 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 13 | 4 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 22 | 16 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 24 | 14 | 9 | New York Jets | 9 | 1 | 18 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 9 | 6 | 1 | 62 | Hilton | 14 | 7 | 0 | 88 | |
| Decker | 3 | 2 | 1 | 37 | Johnson | 10 | 4 | 0 | 24 | |
| Owusu | 6 | 4 | 0 | 55 | Dorsett | 3 | 2 | 0 | 45 | |
| Cumberland | Fleener | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |||||
The Jets are flying high after a big win against Cleveland, while the Colts have to feel disappointed with how poorly they played against Buffalo in Week 1. The odds are in Indy’s favor to bounce back and win at home on Monday Night Football, but it’s tough to imagine them really dominating this game given how both teams looked a week ago.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Devin Smith (NYJ, Ribs, Probable), Chris Ivory (NYJ, Groin, Questionable), T.Y. Hilton (IND, Knee, Highly questionable/Game-time decision)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.5
IND Matchup Rating: 6.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $6,700, DK $5,500) threw only 24 times against the Browns, and found the end zone twice as the Jets controlled the game against Cleveland. The Colts are tougher than the average NFL team against the pass according to Football Outsiders and fantasy points allowed since the start of last season, and while they do have lacking PFF grades against the pass from a pass rush perspective, they’re among the NFL’s elite in coverage grades. I doubt the Jets open up the game for Fitzpatrick unless it really gets out of hand, and he’s not an option with other, superior plays in his price range.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $6,900, DK $4,700) was a great value pick last weekend, and is still pretty affordable in what should be a favorable matchup with the Colts. Indianapolis allowed the Bills to run for 147 yards and two scores in Week 1, and have allowed the tenth-most points to opposing backs since the start of last year. The spread and likely flow of this game will limit my exposure to Ivory, but he’s absolutely worth a shot in a tournament or two, as he saw seven carries and one target in the red zone in Week 1, and will find the end zone at least once if given that volume near the end zone again this week.
However, it is worth noting that Bilal Powell (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) played nearly as many snaps, got a decent amount of carries, and was also involved in the passing game more often than Ivory. The Colts ranked 31st in the league last year in DVOA against backs in the passing game, so Powell might be a sneaky play at a cheap price if you think the Colts keep this game out of reach, and the Jets have to chase with plenty of passes.
Pass Catchers: Even though Fitzpatrick didn’t throw many passes, he did get a healthy amount of targets thrown in the direction of Brandon Marshall (FD $7,400, DK $6,400). The former Chicago wideout saw nine passes thrown his way, with two coming in the red zone, and obviously was the first look for Fitzpatrick. Chris Owusu (FD $4,700, DK $3,000), a former training camp star for the Bucs, is now one of the top options in the passing game for the Jets, as he saw a healthy amount of snaps outside in Week 1 (with Eric Decker playing in the slot), and got six passes thrown his way. He’ll avoid the shadow coverage of Vontae Davis, putting him up against Darius Butler and Jalil Brown instead. Butler is normally Indy’s slot corner, but with Greg Toler out, he played outside against Buffalo more often than not. He may shift back inside to deal with the threat of Eric Decker (FD $6,000, DK $5,100), which lowers Decker’s value (especially given his low volume in Week 1), and boosts Owusu to a tournament play at a cheap price.
Injury Update: Chris Ivory is listed as questionable for this game, which makes him a much riskier pick. Bilal Powell is now more appealing as a tournament play, as Ivory may give up a few more snaps to his backup.
With Darius Butler listed as out as well as Greg Toler, Eric Decker gets a boost and is now definitely in play, as is Owusu, as the duo will likely avoid Vontae Davis and face reserve defensive backs.
The Takeaway: Chris Ivory and Chris Owusu are tournament options of different kinds, but no one else on this offense stands out as big underdogs on the road in primetime.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: We don’t yet have a good grasp on how good the New York pass defense will be, as a matchup with the Browns isn’t comprable to a date with Andrew Luck (FD $8,900, DK $8,200) and the Colts. Antonio Cromartie will be out with a knee injury, but Darrelle Revis will play. Last week he played a side for most of the game, but with no threat to key in on for the Browns, that’s not a surprise. He could play a side again, or shadow any of the healthy receiving options for the Colts. No matter where he plays, he’s going to negatively impact Andrew Luck, and leaves him as a tournament option only. His poor Week 1 performance is a sign of how things can go wrong for the high-volume passer in a tough matchup.
Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $7,000, DK $4,800) barely played against the Browns, Josh Robinson (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) lost a fumble in the red zone on a play that was luckily called off due to a penalty, and Tyler Varga (DK $3,000) did a lot of pass blocking. Gore’s price is too inflated for his part-time role with this team, but he’s the most likely to get 15 carries and a touchdown in this one, but against a very tough run defense (28th in points allowed since 2014 Week 1), I’ll navigate some of the better options earlier in the week.
Pass Catchers: If T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,600, DK $7,200) plays, he’s an interesting option, but his uncertain health would leave him as a tournament play at best. Andre Johnson (FD $6,800, DK $5,800) stands out as the most likely candidate to see a Revis Island shadow, but if Revis plays his side, Johnson will likely see a healthy amount of targets. Donte Moncrief (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) could also see a Revis shadow, if Hilton doesn’t play and Revis doesn’t play a side.
Judging by how the beat writers and Revis himself talk about right corner candidates Buster Skrine and Marcus Williams, it sounds like this defense is founded upon playing sides. I’ll therefore feel comfortable with Johnson (coming out of the slot) or Moncrief (playing a lot on the left) in this matchup.
Dwayne Allen (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) held a clear advantage over Coby Fleener (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) at tight end in Week 1, and is the preferred option against the Jets, who ranked 31st in DVOA against tight ends last year.
Injury Update: T.Y. Hilton practiced today, and his chances of playing this weekend are that much higher. This will boost the status of Andrew Luck, as more weapons will be useful for him against a good defense. However, this further complicates matters as to who Revis will cover and how the Jets will defend the Indy receivers. I still have a gut feeling that Revis will play a side more often than not. “The Patriots used Revis…” is not intel I want to take action on when he now plays for the Jets.
However, Kevin Bowen of Colts.com says that Colts coach Chuck Pagano expects Revis to follow Hilton, as Todd Bowles’ Arizona defense followed Hilton with Patrick Peterson in 2013. This also expresses a good deal of optimism about Hilton playing, if Pagano is talking about him in these terms. I don’t want an injured Hilton against Revis, but Moncrief and Johnson remain in play.
The Takeaway: The risk of Revis shadowing your preferred receiver option exists, but a tournament play of either of the healthy wideouts mentioned above or Dwayne Allen could lead to a nice amount of points. The running game is too unsettled and lacks a favorable enough matchup, and Andrew Luck faces an improved pass defense coming off of a poor Week 1, but has the volume and talent to be a QB1 any week.