NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Two
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 9 | 13 | 27 | Offense | 12.0 | 23 | 11 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 19 | 28 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 12 | 14 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 13 | 13 | 17 | 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 10 | 6 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 22 | 16 | 0 | 244 | Wright | 14 | 10 | 0 | 103 | |
| Bryant | 10 | 5 | 1 | 105 | Thompson | 7 | 5 | 1 | 72 | |
| Rogers | 11 | 6 | 0 | 54 | Bellamy | 11 | 7 | 0 | 78 | |
| James | 13 | 10 | 2 | 68 | Miller | 15 | 10 | 0 | 81 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t hit its full stride yet, but they could slowly be rounding into form. Now that Martavis Bryant has had some time to get back in the swing of things and Le’Veon Bell has knocked off the rust, better times are coming. They draw a nice matchup against a Bears team whose pass defense was being laughably overrated after containing Julio Jones in Week 1, and the narrative of them “shutting down” #1 receivers has been overblown. Mike Evans pretty much had his way last week before the Bucs were able to cruise to victory and take the air out of the ball in the second half, and Roethlisberger should have his way with a poor, banged up defense. Even though the Steelers have scuffled a bit through two weeks, I have no concerns about them moving forward. The Bears are allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt so far this year, and I don’t expect that to improve this week.
Running Backs: Patience is a virtue, and those who are patient with Le’Veon Bell are eventually going to be rewarded. While the results were still subpar (by his standards) a week ago, the usage was very encouraging. Bell logged 31 touches against a tough Vikings defense, and his snap count was up over 90% after he was eased back into action in Week 1. The Bears generally have a stout front seven, but they are already dealing with injuries to three players. I expect a big game from Bell in all facets here, and I will almost certainly be over the field in terms of my GPP exposure this week.
Pass Catchers: Even if you believe the Bears are good at containing #1 wide receivers, it is hard to apply that logic to the cyborg that is Antonio Brown. He was contained by Xavier Rhodes last week, but the Bears do not have a corner that can even approach that level of talent. Brown should feast once again this week, and big play threat Martavis Bryant could also get in on the fun. Bryant picked up the slack in last week’s win and should be a solid weekly bet for eight or nine targets.
The Takeaway: The Steelers are one of the top offenses to target against a weak defense that has already been ravaged by injuries. The Killer B’s of Ben, Bell, Brown, and Bryant are all strong options, and this feels like the week where Bell finally takes off. Target the Steelers’ skill players with confidence in this game.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Mike Glennon officially has a short leash now. John Fox is saying all the right things publicly, but there is no way the Bears tolerate too many more mistake-filled performances like Glennon put up a week ago. The yardage total ended up being nice, but a ton of that came in garbage time. The two interceptions were ugly, and Mitchell Trubisky is waiting in the wings for a team that is going to lose a lot of games. Needless to say, for DFS purposes, you don’t need to consider a quarterback that might be about to lose his job.
Running Backs: Jordan Howard is setting up to be one of the biggest busts of the 2017 season. He carried just nine times for seven yards last week and committed yet another drop with his only target in the passing game. Tarik Cohen is only going to see the field more and more often, and he has shown some real skills in the passing game. This is a contest where the Bears will likely be trailing come the second half, so that will likely mean more snaps for Cohen, whose snap count rose from 42% in Week 1 to over 60% last week. If you are looking to target a Bears RB, Cohen is the guy you want right now.
Pass Catchers: The Bears receivers are a collection of cast offs and misfits, and they have hardly any top notch talent with the injuries to Cameron Meredith (who was the #1) and then Kevin White (who became the de facto #1). The likes of Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson are taking the field. There is really nothing to get excited about here.
The Takeaway: In what is quickly becoming a lost season, there’s little appeal outside of Tarik Cohen, who is a decent play in full PPR formats. The Steelers defense draws another good matchup and could be a nice mid-level play, even though they aren’t the most talented unit in the league. The Chicago QB, WR, and TE situations can simply be avoided in all formats.
| Atlanta Falcons | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 49 | 26 | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.5 | 7 | 7 | 15 | Offense | 29.5 | 6 | 20 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 19 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 17.0 | 9 | 11 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 9 | 12 | 12 | 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 18 | 28 | 16 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 14 | 9 | 0 | 174 | Tate | 16 | 14 | 0 | 132 | |
| Sanu | 15 | 11 | 0 | 132 | Jones | 7 | 3 | 2 | 64 | |
| Gabriel | 7 | 5 | 0 | 50 | Golladay | 10 | 5 | 2 | 77 | |
| Hooper | 4 | 4 | 1 | 135 | Ebron | 8 | 7 | 1 | 51 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: This promises to be one of the better fantasy games of the week on the fast track in Detroit. We have a Vegas total approaching 50, and the Falcons offense looks to be clicking into gear again after a somewhat lackluster opener. They looked very good against the Packers on Sunday night, and there is no reason to expect them to slow down against Detroit. While the Lions have looked surprisingly good through two weeks, facing Matt Ryan in a dome is a different type of test than facing the 2017 version of Eli Manning and company. Ryan did not have to air it out a ton last week after the Falcons raced out to a four score lead early in the second half, but he was still solid when he was tossing it around. In a game that should be high scoring and competitive, I expect a 300+ yard day with multiple touchdowns from the Atlanta signal-caller.
Running Backs: It appears as though we are going to see a 60%/40% or 65%/35% snap split in favor of Devonta Freeman over Tevin Coleman, which is about in line with what we expected heading into the season. It gives both guys an element of risk from a fantasy perspective, but they are incredibly efficient with their touches. Detroit has allowed just 107 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry in two games this season, but they have faced an Arizona team that lost David Johnson during the game and a New York Giants team that throws a corpse out there for a running game. The Atlanta guys should fare better, but I prefer targeting the passing game.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones got off to a roaring start last week against the Packers, but the game script just didn’t work out, as the Falcons were able to keep the ball on the ground with a big lead in the second half. The big week is coming at some point, but I certainly don’t think he’s a must play against an improving Detroit defense. Mohamed Sanu still plays on about 80-85% of the snaps, but you wouldn’t be able to tell it by his production; his ceiling is fairly low despite that snap rate. Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper are decent big play options at wide receiver and tight end, respectively, but nobody is a must roster.
The Takeaway: The passing game is where I want to focus my efforts, and Matt Ryan is a top tier quarterback option. You don’t have to pair him with anyone, as he has been very good at spreading the ball around so far this year. Even the running backs get their share of targets. Julio Jones is obviously a top play at wide receiver, but his price tag is a bit hefty given his mild start. This doesn’t seem like the best matchup in which to utilize the running backs, especially given the time share that exists.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Could the Lions be ready to be the biggest surprise team in the NFL this season? They have looked very sharp so far, and this will be a big “take note of us” statement chance against the defending NFC Champions. Matthew Stafford wasn’t asked to throw much last week in an easy win over the Giants, but this game should be competitive and feature a lot more passing situations. The Falcons are by no means elite defensively, and they can be exploited by quick passing games. I like Stafford as a sneaky mid-range option this week, and the upside is very high if the Lions fall into a negative game script.
Running Backs: This is a tough spot to peg, and pegging it correctly could be a key to success this week. Ameer Abdullah looked spry and shifty on Monday against the Giants, but this sets up as a Theo Riddick kind of game. Atlanta has a major defensive weakness against pass catching running backs, so Riddick could be used a ton as a pass catcher out of the backfield. He has a lot of appeal on DraftKings, but they have priced him up over $5,000, so there’s no screaming value in that. Riddick has only played on 21 and 27 snaps in the first two games, respectively, so the playing time is also a concern. This sets up as more of a Riddick game, but his role is not secure if the Lions happen to get out to a lead in this game. It’s hard to trust this situation in cash games.
Pass Catchers: Figuring out who to target from this group is kind of like trying to figure out what kind of ice cream to get at Baskin Robbins. There are a lot of flavors, and it’s hard to decide among them at times. Riddick might be involved in the passing game. Eric Ebron is healthy and looked very good last week, so perhaps he is a value at tight end. Marvin Jones has some big play potential. Golden Tate should thrive this year out of the slot. Kenny Golladay got a ton of preseason hype and scored twice in Week 1. The limited passing volume hurt this group last week, but I would not be surprised to see Stafford attempt 35 or 40 passes in this game. With Atlanta being more vulnerable over the middle, Tate is an appealing target out of the slot, while Ebron is also a nice value at tight end. I will pass on Golladay and Jones this week.
The Takeaway: This could be one of the more entertaining games of the week, and there is potential game stack appeal here. My hope is that the Lions are playing from behind in the second half, and that will enhance the value of their passing game. Stafford, Tate, and Ebron are my favorite targets, with Theo Riddick in play for GPPs if you think the game script will have Detroit chucking the ball around. Let’s hope for a shootout!
| Cleveland Browns | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 40 | 20.5 | 1 | 40 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.0 | 22 | 10 | 23 | Offense | 11.0 | 25 | 22 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 46.0 | 30 | 27 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 16 | 19 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 14 | 28 | 11 | Cleveland Browns | 19 | 17 | 10 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Higgins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 95 | Hilton | 13 | 7 | 0 | 106 | |
| Britt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | Moncrief | 12 | 3 | 0 | 68 | |
| Louis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 59 | Aiken | 11 | 4 | 0 | 34 | |
| Njoku | 6 | 5 | 1 | 47 | Doyle | 11 | 10 | 0 | 120 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andrew Luck (IND QB) – Out (Shoulder)
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0
IND Matchup Rating: 4.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: This game might be borderline unwatchable. I could put a joke here about the game giving DeShone Kizer another migraine, but I won’t do that. Having battled them myself in the past, I know that migraines are no joke. Assuming Kizer is good to go this week, he could have some sneaky upside against a bad Colts defense, but this feels like a game where the Browns will be willing to ride their running game and try to grind out a victory. I will pass on the young quarterback regardless of his health status.
Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell is asking for more carries, and he’s going to get them this week. There is of course the narrative that the squeaky wheel gets the grease, but this should also be one of the more favorable game scripts that the Browns see this year. Crowell should push for 20+ touches in this game, and his career numbers are fine when the touches are there. The Browns have a respectable offensive line, and the Colts are notoriously bad against the run. Although they have been better so far this season, I am not going to put much stock into a two game sample size. Crowell is one of my favorite mid-range running back targets this week, though he is a preferred play on FanDuel in the half point PPR format.
Pass Catchers: Kenny Britt looks 100% disinterested in playing for the Cleveland Browns. Go watch the clips of some of his routes last week. A lot of them were absolute jokes, including one where he completely gave up late in the fourth quarter. I am not counting on him to step up, even without Corey Coleman. Ricardo Louis is currently listed as the starter, but I expect Rashard Higgins to be the biggest beneficiary in Coleman’s absence. He played very well against the Ravens last week with seven catches on 11 targets, and he actually played on more snaps than Britt, so take the starting designations with a grain of salt. The Browns are still splitting time evenly with their tight ends, so I am off that mess for now.
The Takeaway: This spot just screams for some Isaiah Crowell love. He wants more carries, and he should get them against a typically soft defense. If you are looking for some passing game value in place of the injured Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins will likely be somewhat popular on a week that doesn’t have a ton of screaming value plays.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Yes, they almost beat the Cardinals, but let’s take a bit of a reality check here. The Colts blew the game, did almost nothing in the second half, and still only scored 13 total points. Jacoby Brissett did not do anything special in that game. As much as we might want to try and turn him into a viable option in a home matchup against a weak team, I’m just not buying it. I would play him ahead of the likes of Kizer, but he’s not ahead of more than three or four other quarterbacks for the week.
Running Backs: Is the consistent run of production for Frank Gore finally coming to an end? Through two weeks, Gore has played on just 42% of the total snaps, while Robert Turbin has logged a 35% snap rate, and Marlon Mack has picked up the remaining 23%. This is an ugly three-headed situation that I want nothing to do with. If someone gets hurt, Mack has some interesting long-term value, but we are not at that stage yet. Avoid this mess for now.
Pass Catchers: Poor T.Y. Hilton just isn’t going to have any value for as long as Andrew Luck remains sidelined, but he will be a nice value when Luck returns, because he’s liable to be mega cheap by then. For now, I will stick to Jack Doyle as my target for the Colts. Cleveland has been obliterated by tight ends in the first two weeks, allowing two touchdowns in the first game and eight catches for 91 yards to the starting tight end last week. The tight ends they faced in those weeks? Jesse James and Ben Watson. Yeah, that’s bad. Doyle had a nice rapport with Brissett last week, and he’s one of my favorite value plays in Week 3.
The Takeaway: Outside of a value pick in Jack Doyle, who I really like at tight end this week, I am not interested in anyone else from the Colts offense. Doyle, however, is a very strong play given his nice game last week and matchup against a defense that has been terrible against tight ends in each of the first two games.
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Offense | 19.0 | 16 | 12 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 13 | 23 | 8 | Opp. Defense | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 21 | 8 | 23 | 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 1 | 28 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 9 | 7 | 1 | 93 | Diggs | 14 | 9 | 2 | 120 | |
| Jackson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 39 | Thielen | 16 | 14 | 0 | 201 | |
| Humphries | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | Treadwell | 7 | 4 | 0 | 40 | |
| Brate | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | Rudolph | 9 | 7 | 1 | 71 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sam Bradford (MIN QB) – Out (Knee)
TB Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Tampa Bay is one of my favorite sleeper teams this year, as I respect their ability on both sides of the ball. I expect some of their younger players to take major leaps this season, and they certainly didn’t show any rust after not being able to play their season opener because of Hurricane Irma. While I respect Jameis Winston and this team, I am still not going to target this unit in a road game against a very good Minnesota defense. There will be tons of great spots to play Winston this season, so I actually hope he struggles this week, as that will lower his price and/or his ownership in future weeks. Pass on him for this one.
Running Backs: Jacquizz Rodgers will continue to fill in for the suspended Doug Martin, with Charles Sims mixing in on passing downs. Rodgers is not an elite talent, and Sims’ involvement on passing downs does reduce the upside for Rodgers. Rodgers played on just 50% of the snaps last week against the Bears, though some of that may have been due to the fact that Tampa Bay was way ahead in the second half. There’s a little too much risk here for me against a tough defensive unit.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans will likely be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes in this game, and Rhodes has shut down the likes of Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown over the first two weeks of the season. Assuming that happens, DeSean Jackson could be a sneaky GPP target, but it’s not like the rest of the Minnesota secondary is trash. There’s not a ton of appeal here, but if we get confirmation that Rhodes will shadow Evans, I don’t hate taking a few shots on Jackson.
The Takeaway: Picking on the Minnesota defense when they are playing at home is generally not a winning strategy. I don’t love a whole lot here, though DeSean Jackson is an interesting GPP option if the Vikings elect to have top corner Xavier Rhodes shadow Mike Evans. Keep an eye on that situation for and update as we get closer to Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Sam Bradford returned to practice on Wednesday, and it sounds like he might play this week. While that will help the fantasy outlook for the receiving corps, I am not going to trust a banged-up Bradford against a Tampa Bay defense that looked awfully sharp against the Bears. Even if he plays, Bradford is not a DFS option this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Bradford is out. Downgrade the Minnesota passing game a lot. Upgrade the Tampa Bay defense.
Running Backs: Dalvin Cook is an immense talent, but it is going to be tough sledding at times running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. He has yet to find the end zone despite solid yardage totals, and the goal line scores might be hard to come by. That isn’t his strongest suit, and the line struggles don’t help. The Tampa Bay front seven absolutely shut down the Bears a week ago, so I am not inclined to trust Cook this week. He benefits a bit if Sam Bradford is back to open up the passing game (boy, that was weird to type), but I prefer other options on a weekend that is loaded with strong running back options.
Pass Catchers: If Sam Bradford returns this week, both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen should return to fantasy relevance, and Kyle Rudolph will remain locked in as a touchdown dependent option at tight end. I don’t have a strong take on this group either way, other than that they can all be avoided if Bradford ends up sitting out. The Vikings have been very sketchy with details on the injury, so I am not counting on anything until we have official word. In a game that is likely going to be relatively low scoring, there’s not a ton of reason to get excited about rostering anyone here.
The Takeaway: Well, I guess I am not very high on the Vikings this week. The uncertain health status of Sam Bradford makes it difficult to buy in completely to the passing game, and Dalvin Cook isn’t a top tier running back option given his below average offensive line and a matchup against an underrated defense. I will have very little exposure to this Minnesota offense in any format, especially if we get word that Bradford will be out for another week. Tampa Bay’s defense is a very sneaky target in tournament formats.
