NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Two
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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
| Tennessee Titans | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.5 | 31 | 27 | 4 | Offense | 17.8 | 28 | 14 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 16 | 24 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 14 | 10 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 11 | 13 | 29 | 22 | Tennessee Titans | 5 | 3 | 15 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 20 | 12 | 0 | 180 | Landry | 45 | 31 | 1 | 377 | |
| Sharpe | 32 | 16 | 0 | 172 | Parker | 22 | 13 | 1 | 177 | |
| Wright | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | Stills | 20 | 9 | 2 | 205 | |
| Walker | 19 | 11 | 1 | 159 | Cameron | 11 | 8 | 1 | 60 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Cameron (MIA TE) – Out (Concussion) / Arian Foster (MIA RB) – Doubtful (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: It looks like Hurricane Matthew will make its way through Florida well before the game, so I don’t expect many issues there. However, be sure to keep an eye on this in case there is damage in the Miami area that ends up affecting this game. As for the game itself, Marcus Mariota has struggled in this offense, and it appears as though his growth has slowed considerably. He was bad last week against Houston, completing just 13-of-29 passes for 202 yards and no touchdowns. Miami hasn’t been great at defending the pass this season, but I can’t trust Mariota at this point. There are better mid-range options.
Running Backs: Before the season started, the narrative was that Derrick Henry would be ready to take over the lead back duties from DeMarco Murray by this point. In reality, the opposite has occurred. Murray has been perhaps the biggest surprise of 2016, and he played on 95.5% of the offensive snaps in last week’s game against the Texans. In those snaps, he received a whopping 25 carries. He has also been very good in the passing game this year. This is a fine matchup for him to keep things rolling, as the Dolphins are allowing 130 rushing yards per game this year. Murray is a bit over-priced for my liking, and this feels a bit like chasing points, but the matchup is prime. I have no problem with riding the wave if you want to roster him once again.
Pass Catchers: Perhaps it isn’t fair to blame the struggles of the passing game solely on Mariota, as he really doesn’t have much for weapons to throw the ball to. Delanie Walker has been injured for a few weeks and is still operating at less than 100%. Tajae Sharpe has had his ups and downs as the “#1” receiver on the team. We can’t really trust anyone in the group right now, even in a cushy matchup.
The Takeaway: Don’t bother with any part of the passing game, as Mariota and company have really been struggling. You will see a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray once again, and he has been playing great football so far in 2016. You can target him as a top-end running back against a weak rush defense in Miami.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Continuing what seems like a theme this week, we have another quarterback coming off a poor game in Ryan Tannehill. He was stifled by the Bengals in last week’s Thursday night contest, but the good news is that the Dolphins have had a few extra days to prepare for this Sunday contest. Tennessee has been above average at defending the pass this season, but I don’t mind using Tannehill as a mid-range QB option, especially in GPPs where his ownership will be low. He has capable receivers at his disposal, he will be at home for this game, and the extra preparation time is huge. Nothing jumps off the page, but the cumulative factors support a decent performance.
Running Backs: The Dolphins have used a quartet of running backs over the last few weeks, and Adam Gase basically admitted that this wasn’t the right move. He is looking to pair it down to two backs for this week’s game, and with Arian Foster still nursing an injury, it looks like Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake will be the guys who get the most touches. If we get clarity on the likely starter, which I assume will be Ajayi, the starter is worth a look as a punt play at running back here in Week 5. It’s a decent matchup against a Tennessee rush defense that ranks 20th in the league, allowing 110 yards per game on the ground.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Cameron does not have a timetable for a return right now, which means that the targets will continue to get soaked up by Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Landry caught almost 50% of Tannehill’s completed passes last week, and he a safe weekly target in full-PPR contest formats. Parker has more big play explosiveness and would be the better play on a site like FanDuel or in a GPP setting. Both guys are squarely in play against the Titans, but Parker is extremely appealing as he should draw the majority of the coverage of Perrish Cox, who is one of the worst cover corners in the NFL today. Parker is one of my favorite GPP receivers on the entire slate.
The Takeaway: Miami should perform better this week, as they have had a few extra days to prepare for this game. Ryan Tannehill, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry are all decent mid-range targets, while Jay Ajayi could be an interesting running back play (if he draws the start) thanks to Adam Gase’s comments earlier in the week.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
| Washington Redskins | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.8 | 12 | 4 | 20 | Offense | 21.0 | 18 | 16 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 26 | 25 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 4 | 19 | 6 | Washington Redskins | 16 | 30 | 28 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 25 | 15 | 1 | 243 | Wallace | 28 | 14 | 3 | 210 | |
| Garcon | 25 | 17 | 0 | 174 | Smith | 37 | 24 | 1 | 281 | |
| Crowder | 28 | 18 | 2 | 196 | Aiken | 8 | 6 | 0 | 28 | |
| Reed | 35 | 25 | 2 | 263 | Pitta | 29 | 21 | 0 | 200 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh Doctson (WAS WR) – Out (Achilles) / Kenneth Dixon (BAL RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee)
WAS Matchup Rating: 5.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.5
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: I’m not exactly sure what to make of Kirk Cousins at this juncture of the season. He started off last week’s game like gangbusters, throwing two touchdown passes to Jordan Reed early in the game. His production waned from there, but the Redskins did not need him to do much more in order to beat the Browns. Of course, they also got the benefit of that ridiculous fumble recovery call late in the contest as well. The Ravens did allow four touchdown passes to Derek Carr last week, but their performance wasn’t as bad as those four touchdowns would indicate. They held Carr under 200 yards for the game, and they are allowing just 176 passing yards per game this year. Cousins is relatively cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but I’m not super interested with him playing on the road against a capable defense.
Running Backs: The Redskins are allocating their backfield snaps based on game flow. Matt Jones is the clear lead dog when the Redskins are ahead in games, and he played on two-thirds of the snaps in last week’s game. He was effective in that time, rushing 22 times for 117 yards and a touchdown in the process. When the Redskins are behind in games, they tend to give more playing time to Chris Thompson. It is hard to figure out how the game flow is going to go in this one, with the game projected to be very competitive. I will pass on both backs here, especially on FanDuel where there isn’t much value in Jones’ price tag. If you have a strong opinion on the game flow, you could target Jones (if you think the Redskins will get a lead) or Thompson (if you think they will be playing from behind). The Baltimore rush defense has also been playing well, as they have allowed just 80 yards per game so far in 2016. This appears to be a spot to ignore for fantasy purposes.
Pass Catchers: If you are in to targeting WR/CB matchups, then DeSean Jackson should be your primary target for the Redskins. He will likely draw Shareece Wright in coverage assuming the Ravens don’t move Jimmy Smith around. This could also be a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” spot, as Jackson had just one catch on two targets a week ago. Of course, Jackson always has the big play upside that we seek in GPPs, too. Jordan Reed is a reasonable play if you elect to spend up at tight end, and he finally broke out with a pair of touchdown grabs in Week 4. I will be avoiding the low-upside Pierre Garcon along with Jamison Crowder in this contest.
The Takeaway: The Ravens have played solid defense this year, though they did get exploited a bit by the Raiders last week. If you want exposure to the Redskins, my favorite play is DeSean Jackson, who should draw a very favorable WR/CB matchup against Shareece Wright. Outside of Jackson, there doesn’t appear to be a great bargain on the Redskins team here, though Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins, and perhaps Matt Jones aren’t necessarily “bad” plays.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: I think I’m just going to paste the same discussion for Joe Flacco every week. He’s not elite; he’s not terrible; he’s not a fantasy option. The Ravens were in come back mode for much of last week’s game against the Raiders, which forced Flacco to attempt 52 passes in the game. Despite throwing that many passes, he still didn’t eclipse 300 passing yards. He has been speaking out against the team’s play calling, asking them to call more deep passes in the upcoming games. The matchup is fine, but why risk it with Flacco? Even in a GPP, it’s hard to pair him with a WR because the Ravens lack a true #1 target in the passing game.
Running Backs: John Harbaugh is clearly upset with the production of the running backs, as the team has now cut, re-signed, and cut Justin Forsett over the last five weeks. Javorius Allen might be a healthy scratch this week, as Kenneth Dixon is back from injury. Terrance West ran for 113 yards in a starting role last week, and he will retain the lead back duties for now. I do expect Dixon to get more and more work as the year progresses. For now, West is a decent low-to-mid range value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings against a Redskins rush defense that ranks third worst in the league so far this year. I don’t expect Dixon to get a massive workload in his first game.
Pass Catchers: The beat goes on in the Russian Roulette wheel that is the Baltimore wide receiving corps. With five guys playing at least 30% of the snaps and no receiver playing more than 74% of the snaps, it’s really hard to trust anyone. I legitimately just avoid this group every week. Guys will have their share of good games, as Steve Smith Sr. did last week, but they will be hard to predict. Outside of Smith, no wide receiver had more than four catches for 44 yards against the Raiders, and that was in a game where Flacco threw the ball 52 times! You can do better than a dart throw at this team.
The Takeaway: The running game is where you want to focus your attention here. Terrance West is the top dog for now, and he was very good in last week’s loss. Kenneth Dixon should gain a greater role as the weeks wear on. The passing game remains way too inconsistent to target despite a favorable matchup. I’ll stick with West for my Baltimore exposure in this game.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
| Houston Texans | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 40 | 17 | -6 | 40 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.3 | 29 | 26 | 11 | Offense | 22.0 | 16 | 24 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 12.5 | 2 | 12 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 8 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 17 | 2 | 14 | Houston Texans | 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 33 | 17 | 2 | 227 | Diggs | 34 | 25 | 1 | 372 | |
| Fuller | 34 | 19 | 2 | 323 | Johnson | 14 | 5 | 0 | 90 | |
| Miller | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | Thielen | 17 | 13 | 0 | 145 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 55 | Rudolph | 33 | 19 | 3 | 221 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Doubtful (Groin)
HOU Matchup Rating: 2.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Minnesota’s defense is quite possibly the best in the league, especially when they play at home. Can you imagine facing this team in that stadium as they make a playoff push? There have already been a few teams that have had problems with the noise this year, and it was certainly evident against the Packers and Giants. Yikes. The Texans have the lowest team total of the entire week, and you can avoid them entirely. There’s no reason to go here in any format, as there are low owned GPP targets in more favorable matchups, and you certainly don’t want to target these guys in cash games.
Running Backs: Even with a massive workload, Lamar Miller has yet to find the end zone almost a month into the season. There’s no reason to believe that this is the week he is going to change that, unless of course you believe that he is “due.” I wouldn’t advocate testing that method, as people who waited for this with Melvin Gordon last year were not rewarded for an entire season.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins was my worst call of Week 4. Sorry if you used him. Will Fuller appears poised to become a #1-B option along with Hopkins, which will make both of them a bit unpredictable. I’ll gladly pass on the whole unit here.
The Takeaway: Just say no to the Texans! Since they have the lowest team total on the board, there’s no reason to target any of them. Of course, the Vikings defense is definitely in play for all formats on all sites.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Two good defenses are facing off in this game, so it’s no surprise that the 40 1/2 point Vegas total is the lowest overall total of the week. This isn’t as bad of a matchup for the Vikings as it would first appear, however. The Texans have lost J.J. Watt for the season and are also dealing with some other injuries on the defensive line. That could stymie their pass rush and give Bradford more time to throw. Unfortunately, Bradford is not going to be asked to win games on his own. Since the Vikings have a suffocating defense, they are generally able to be more cautious offensively. Bradford’s 262 yard, one touchdown line from last week will be a standard one for him as we move forward. Houston is allowing a league low 163 passing yards per game, so I have no interest in Bradford despite Houston’s injuries.
Running Backs: If you are going to target a Vikings offensive player, this would be the spot to do it. Whereas Houston has been very good against the pass, they rank just 27th in the league against the run. Throw in the recent injuries, and this is where you can attack them. Jerick McKinnon is a fantastic athlete, and he looked spry on Monday against the Giants on his way to 95 total yards and a touchdown. Matt Asiata will garner the majority of the goal line work, which is the only wrench in the plans here. Overall, McKinnon has been getting 60-65% of the snaps since Adrian Peterson got hurt. He also has big play ability, and he’s very cheap (especially on DraftKings, where he costs just $4,000). He makes a lot of sense as a value option this week.
Pass Catchers: Kyle Rudolph missed Wednesday’s practice with a rib injury but is expected to be fine. It’s tough to endorse him against this tough Houston pass defense, but Sam Bradford really trusts Rudolph. He has scored touchdowns in three straight games and remains far too cheap for his recent production. The rest of the receivers are either too expensive given the matchup (Stefon Diggs) or too unreliable (Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson) to use in this game.
The Takeaway: Houston’s defense is strong against the pass and weak against the run, making Jerick McKinnon an interesting value play at running back. If you want to target anyone in the passing game, Kyle Rudolph is developing a nice rapport with Sam Bradford and remains cheap across the industry.
SATURDAY UPDATE – In a shocking bit of injury news, Stefon Diggs is unlikely to play this week. Cordarrelle Patterson and Adam Thielen will work as the Vikings’ top two receivers on Sunday, but tight end Kyle Rudolph is Sam Bradford most trusted target. He is a fantastic tight end option here. Jerick McKinnon also gets a boost with this news.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
| New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 48 | 20.5 | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 22 | 21 | 11 | Offense | 27.0 | 7 | 11 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 11 | 29 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 21 | 26 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 | 26 | 12 | 20 | New York Jets | 28 | 10 | 21 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 39 | 16 | 1 | 249 | Brown | 45 | 28 | 4 | 369 | |
| Decker | 21 | 9 | 2 | 194 | Wheaton | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32 | |
| Enunwa | 32 | 23 | 1 | 243 | Coates | 20 | 13 | 0 | 282 | |
| Davis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | James | 18 | 12 | 2 | 85 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eric Decker (NYJ WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Eli Rogers (PIT WR) – Out (Toe)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown NINE interceptions over the last two weeks. NINE. That would qualify him as the NFL leader for the year even if those were the only two games he had played in. Sure, those two games were in tough matchups against the Chiefs and Seahawks, but there’s no excuse for throwing nine picks in two games. With Eric Decker unlikely to return this week, there is no reason to consider Fitzpatrick in any format.
Running Backs: Matt Forte was bound to hit a wall at some point, and he came crashing down with just 14 carries for 27 yards last week against Seattle. His production will likely level off somewhere in between where he was in Week 3 (100 yards and three touchdowns) and last week. He still has fantasy relevance, especially since he is playing on 2/3 of the offensive snaps. His rate was down last week, but that is because the Jets had to use Bilal Powell more in the second half as they tried to play catch up. Assuming the Jets can stay close, which is a big question mark given the way Pittsburgh played last week with Le’Veon Bell back, Forte should see 20+ touches. I would reserve him as a risk/reward, GPP-only play in this spot.
Pass Catchers: Even though I am not high on Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, I absolutely love Brandon Marshall. He caught just four passes last week against Seattle, but he saw a healthy 12 targets in the contest. The Steelers are allowing 317 passing yards per game this year, and Marshall should get peppered with targets, assuming Decker remains sidelined as expected. He is a top ten wide receiver this week with top five upside, and his price tag isn’t overly expensive, especially on FanDuel. If you are looking for a cheaper cash game option, Quincy Enunwa is a reasonable play (again, assuming Decker is out).
The Takeaway: The matchup is a good one for the New York passing game, but it is difficult to trust Ryan Fitzpatrick given his struggles over the past two games. I would much rather get my exposure via Brandon Marshall, who is going to get significant usage in the offense in the absence of Eric Decker. Matt Forte carries some risk, but is in play at running back if you think the Jets will stay competitive throughout the game. I definitely prefer Marshall if choosing just one New York option. Quincy Enunwa is also viable.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The Jets no longer have an elite secondary, as once dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis ranks as the 14th worst cover corner in football this season. He is also banged up. That’s not a good recipe with Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers on the schedule this week. The Steelers are a fun squad to target for fantasy production, as the results are generally consolidated amongst Big Ben, Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. Feel free to use Roethlisberger in all formats as a top three option in Week 5.
Running Backs: Welcome back, Le’Veon Bell! The Steelers lined him up all over the place in last week’s dominating win over the Chiefs, and he looked fantastic. In addition to catching five passes, he ran the ball 18 times for 144 yards for a sparkling 8.0 yards per carry average. He somehow didn’t score a touchdown, but have no fear; they will be coming. On the Sunday only slate, he is my favorite running back option, even against a Jets defense that is only allowing 70 rush yards per game. Bell is simply too involved in the offense and too talented to fade. Also, consider this: you are getting an elite option on DraftKings for just $7,500. Although that is at the top of running back salary scale, it is roughly $2,000 cheaper than the best of the wide receiver crop. That’s a steal. The difference is less stark on FanDuel but it still exists. Bell is as matchup-proof as they come, and he should prove it in this contest.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown has the safest floor of any wide receiver in the league. He caught two first half touchdowns against the Chiefs before losing steam in the second half as the Steelrs stormed out to a 36-0 lead. If Revis plays, Brown will have a massive edge against the declining cover corner. If Revis sits, the Jets have nobody capable of containing Brown. It’s a lose-lose situation for New York. Yes, Brown is your #1 overall wide receiver this week. I can’t trust any of the fringe options like Sammie Coates or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom are dependent upon hitting a big play.
The Takeaway: Feel free to use any of the usual suspects. The “B” trio of Ben, Bell, and Brown are fine options for any contest. Don’t worry about the Jets’ stellar rush defense stats, as Bell is talented enough to transcend the matchup and/or contribute in the passing game. Bell’s salary is a bargain, especially on DraftKings.
