RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 5

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-10 04:56:21

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals						San Francisco Niners
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4	43	23.5				4	43	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.0	14	5	16		Offense	22.5	15	32	10
Opp. Defense						Opp. Defense	20.0	11	7	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco Niners	19	21	17	26		Arizona Cardinals	7	5	13	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	40	26	3	284		Smith	22	9	1	106
Floyd	31	12	2	170		Patton	18	10	0	106
Brown	34	18	0	236		Kerley	32	18	1	202
Fells	9	8	0	53		McDonald	7	5	2	93

Notable injuries and suspensions: Carson Palmer (ARI QB) – Out (Concussion) / Darren Fells (ARI TE) – Out (Shoulder) / Navorro Bowman (SF LB) – Out (Achilles) / Jeremy Kerley (SF WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Vance McDonald (SF TE) – Questionable (Hip)

ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
SF Matchup Rating: 3.5

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Yuck. This game profiles as one of the uglier games of the week, but Arizona does get a nice tempo boost as they face off against Chip Kelly and the 49ers. We don’t have much certainly at the quarterback spot for Arizona, as the team does not yet know if Carson Palmer will be cleared through the concussion protocol in time to start. With this being a Thursday game, I would lean toward “no” being the answer to that question. That means we will see Drew Stanton at quarterback. You don’t want to use Drew Stanton, and I don’t want to use Carson Palmer coming off a concussion and operating on a short week, even if he is cleared to play.

Running Backs: This is where we want to go. Chris Johnson is injured, and that should relieve some of the stress that David Johnson will lose carries. Also, David Johnson, in case you haven’t heard, is pretty good at the game of football. San Francisco conveniently also ranks dead last in the league in rushing defense, allowing 140.5 yards per game so far this year. That is six yards worse than any other team. Given the matchup and likely heavy workload, David Johnson is the top overall running back for me this week, even ahead of Le’Veon Bell. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this year and has accumulated 510 total yards in four games. His work in the passing game gives him a nice floor, which we don’t hate as fantasy players. He might be even more involved if Stanton is under center and chooses to check down a lot.

Pass Catchers: To put it simply, I have no interest in the Arizona passing game if Stanton is the quarterback. I really don’t have much interest even if Palmer gets cleared. They spread the ball around between the aforementioned Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd. Even Jaron Brown gets some catches on occasion. When you think you have it figured out, Darren Fells scores a touchdown. There are plenty of other games on the schedule this week.

The Takeaway: Play David Johnson in a cupcake matchup against the worst rush defense in the league. Ignore the quarterback and receiver spots primarily thanks to the uncertain status of Carson Palmer.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPDATE – Palmer has been confirmed out for this game. Downgrade the receiving corps. Don’t play Drew Stanton.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: I am desperately trying to find a video or Vine of Blaine Gabbert awful miss on the deep ball to Torrey Smith last week. It was just horrendous. He has now thrown for less than 200 yards in three of four games this year, and he has to face a tough Arizona secondary. Move on.

Running Backs: Carlos Hyde has been very much a part of the 49ers offense this year, reducing Shaun Draughn to a marginal role as the backup. Many feared that Draughn would see significant work in passing situations, but that has not been the case so far in 2016. Draughn has played on around 30% of the overall snaps, but Hyde is dominating in total touches. You could maybe consider Hyde as a reasonable option in the mid range this week, as Arizona has struggled a bit with their rush defense this year. Hyde is still very affordable on DraftKings at $4,800. That is the place where you can give him a look, though it’s best not to get too excited with the 49ers only projected to score 19 or 20 points here.

Pass Catchers: There are no words other than “no” here. Arizona has the 7th best pass defense in the league, Blaine Gabbert stinks, and the 49ers have no reliable receiving targets.

The Takeaway: You can safely ignore the passing game against a good Arizona secondary. That part of this contest is a total mismatch. Carlos Hyde is a usable mid-range play at running back, especially on DraftKings where he remains extremely affordable. The Cardinals defense can also be used. Outside of David Johnson, this sets up as a perfect opportunity to fade the general over-owned nature of the Thursday contest.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

New England Patriots						Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-10	46.5	28.25				10	46.5	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.3	21	28	3		Offense	18.5	26	25	1
Opp. Defense	28.8	27	16	24		Opp. Defense	15.3	4	19	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	23	24	18	29		New England Patriots	15	16	9	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	28	19	0	196		Pryor	40	19	1	290
Amendola	12	9	2	121		Hawkins	13	8	0	70
Hogan	15	8	1	122		Louis	9	6	0	68
Gronkowski	3	1	0	11		Barnidge	20	16	0	160

Notable injuries and suspensions: LeGarrette Blount (NE RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Hip) / Julian Edelman (NE WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Hamstring) / Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand)

NE Matchup Rating: 8.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0

New England Patriots

Quarterback: Tom Brady is back! It will be interesting to see how people approach Brady this week, as he couldn’t really ask for a better landing spot. Cleveland’s pass defense is better than everyone makes it out to be, as they rank in the middle of the pack while allowing 260 passing yards per game. That’s not horrendous. That said, Tom Brady has a pretty good track record of success. The Patriots are pegged to get around four touchdowns in this game, and he’s certainly in play. His price tag on FanDuel and DraftKings is by no means a bargain as he comes off his suspension, so he’s also not a “must play.” If you want to use him, that’s fine. I’ll probably pass as people gravitate toward the shiny new (returning) object, as there are other quarterbacks that could easily match his production.

Running Backs: Another reason to possibly worry about Brady is the fact that the Patriots are healthy double digit favorites in this game. They have not been afraid to pound LeGarrette Blount at opposing defenses this year, especially when they get a lead. That narrative won’t change even with Brady back in the mix, though it will if the Patriots get behind. That’s not going to happen this week. Blount still ranks third in the league in rushing yards and can be used against a weak Cleveland front seven. He doesn’t contribute anything in the passing game, though, his price has been adjusted upward on almost every site, and there’s just not a ton of upside here.

Pass Catchers: The New England receivers and tight ends will obviously see a big boost with Brady back in the mix. Rob Gronkowski is as cheap as we have seen him in a long time, but he is far from healthy right now. Unless we get some glowing reports out of practice this week, I have to stay away. Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan are firmly entrenched as the starting wide receivers, as both have played on 80%+ of the offensive snaps this year. You can target either guy this week. I will be interested to see if Danny Amendola or Malcolm Mitchell become more involved with Brady back in the mix, but both have been used sparingly this year with Mitchell at a 40% snap rate and Amendola at just 24%.

The Takeaway: The return of Tom Brady will certainly boost the entire New England passing game. Brady doesn’t come at a discount, though, so he isn’t a must play. With Rob Gronkowski still ailing, you can target Edelman or Hogan in the receiving corps. I am not the biggest LeGarrette Blount fan, but the game script sets up well for him to succeed in this one.

THURSDAY UPDATE – Gronkowski wants this to be his “go” week according a report, so that is a positive sign. If you want to roll the dice, it’s looking better now. I will not use Martellus Bennett, as his snap count will continue to decline as Gronk nears full health.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: Cody Kessler has at least been reasonably competent in his two starts for the Browns. He was 28-for-40 for 223 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins, turning the ball over just once in the game. That doesn’t mean I want to take him in a difficult matchup against a good New England defense. If you are looking to go the value route at quarterback, there are better options out there.

Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell has been a massive surprise for the Browns this year. He has played exceptionally well through four games, and he run for 120 yards on just 16 carries last week against Washington. He ranks second in the league in rushing yards. The problem is that Duke Johnson is heavily involved in passing situations, and the Browns are likely going to fall behind in this game. They have basically split the snaps right down the middle with Crowell taking 138 snaps and Johnson 136 so far this season. That’s not a recipe for fantasy success in a tough matchup, though Johnson would be an interesting PPR format option if you want to take the chance that the Browns fall way behind. I probably won’t get that cute.

Pass Catchers: With Corey Coleman sidelined, there isn’t much to the Cleveland passing game outside of Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor. There was a lot of buzz around Pryor last week as he had a great game in Week 3 and was taking snaps at quarterback as well as receiver. That didn’t happen last week, and his price has now corrected for his recent performance. He’s a usable option, but I don’t have much interest in Cleveland this week. The same goes for Barnidge. The only good news is that Cleveland will likely be forced to throw it more often than they would like.

The Takeaway: I’m not super interested in this team. The two main pass catchers in Pryor and Barnidge can be used if you want, but there’s not a ton of value left in Pryor’s now increased price tag.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles						Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	46	24.5				3	46	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.7	2	20	9		Offense	23.8	13	6	22
Opp. Defense	25.5	20	21	23		Opp. Defense	9.0	1	8	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	31	6	27	31		Philadelphia Eagles	1	2	5	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	26	15	2	204		Tate	26	14	0	95
Agholor	15	11	1	120		Jones	36	23	2	482
Green-Beckham	10	7	0	65		Boldin	24	17	2	136
Ertz	7	6	0	58		Ebron	25	18	1	210

Notable injuries and suspensions: Dwayne Washington (DET RB) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Out (Ankle) / Marvin Jones (DET WR) – Questionable (Foot)

PHI Matchup Rating: 7.0
DET Matchup Rating: 4.0

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: I posted a poll on Twitter today about whether or not the Eagles were Super Bowl contenders, and the response was overwhelmingly “no.” I was surprised it was such a runaway, but I guess that’s what happens when two of the teams you beat are the Browns and the Bears. Then again, their third victory was a romp over a very good Pittsburgh team. This will be a very interesting road test against an average Lions team, and Vegas is telling the Eagles to be careful in this one. The Lions played like diddly poo (in the words of Jim Mora) last week against the Bears, and they will almost certainly put forth a better effort this week. Carson Wentz is a fine young quarterback, and the Eagles should be rested coming out of their bye week. Detroit is in the bottom third of the league in pass defense, but they have a very good corner in Darius Slay that should be tasked with shutting down Jordan Matthews. I don’t trust the other receivers on this team enough to like Wentz this week.

Running Backs: Darren Sproles has been a bright spot for the Eagles in the early going, and he caught six passes for 126 yards in the win over the Steelers. Despite the team paying lip service to Ryan Mathews being the lead back, it hasn’t played out that way. They are mixing in Wendell Smallwood a good bit as well, something they did even more of after Mathews was banged up in Week 3. This has the makings of an ugly three man committee. Don’t buy the team-speak of Mathews being the top guy until we start to see that on a consistent basis.

Pass Catchers: Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor can’t be relied upon. With Slay handling Matthews whenever he goes outside (around 30% of the time) and possibly in the slot at times, this becomes a group we almost have to avoid. The most appealing pass catcher is probably Sproles, who is cheap and at least interesting on full PPR sites. Of course, you could always take a risk/reward approach and give Matthews a shot in a GPP. He gets plenty of volume and does have upside, but the matchup takes him out of play for me. Detroit does struggle against tight ends, so there may be some interest there. Brent Celek is asked to block a lot, and Trey Burton only played on 50% of the snaps in Week 3. Throw in the return of Zach Ertz, which I originally over-looked in my initial analysis of the week, and we may see a messy time share here. I do not think the Eagles are going to give Ertz a full complement of snaps this week, but if they do (or if it is anywhere close), he is an intriguing option given Detroit’s struggles against tight ends.

The Takeaway: I really don’t like this spot for the Eagles on the road against a team that should be motivated this week. I think the Lions win this game outright, and I will most likely avoid all Eagles in this one with the exception of maybe Zach Ertz.

There has been a lot of push back in the comments over my lack of Eagles love. If you like them, don’t let me sway you off them!

As far as Slay possibly covering Matthews, here is the best I could find on the matter

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: If the Lions are motivated to play well this week, it is the offense that needs to pick things up. The defense wasn’t exactly that bad against Chicago last Sunday. Matthew Stafford had a terrible game, throwing for just 213 yards with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions on the day. Detroit’s lone touchdown came on special teams. He had been solid through the first few games, so we can chalk up one bad start as an aberration. That said, the Eagles quietly are allowing the sixth fewest passing yards per game in the league, despite not having the most heralded defense heading into the season. They are improving with Chip Kelly off to San Francisco. Stafford’s price has dropped a bit, and he is an intriguing GPP option in this spot. It doesn’t make much sense to target him in cash games.

Running Backs: Dwayne Washington got hurt last week and is not practicing as of Wednesday. That should leave more work on the table for Theo Riddick, who is an obvious asset in the passing game but has struggled on the ground. The Lions should use his receiving skills extensively in this one, and I don’t mind pairing him with Stafford in a tournament lineup. People always tend to ignore the QB/RB combinations even when the running back catches a lot of passes. Riddick will only cost you $6,200 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, and they will need his receiving prowess in this one as the Eagles have been very stout against the run. I don’t mind him as a cheap RB #2 or flex play assuming Washington sits out.

Pass Catchers: Marvin Jones wasn’t great against the Bears, but neither was anyone else on this offense. Obviously, Jones wasn’t going to be able to keep up his level of production from the first three weeks for the entire season. Don’t panic. This might be a nice time to “buy low” in terms of ownership, though he won’t come cheap. I like the Stafford/Jones pairing, and with Golden Tate falling off the face of the earth, Jones is clearly the WR #1 here. I would be interested in Eric Ebron, but he is not expected to play with ankle and knee injuries. Jones is the clear target here, despite Jim Bob Cooter’s comments that Golden Tate will have a “huge week.”

The Takeaway: I like the Lions this week, as I think we will see a focused effort even against a good defense. Their players are better suited for GPP play, where I will consider Stafford, Riddick, Jones, and Ebron. The production is relatively predictable, as it will only come from a few sources. This is especially true if Dwayne Washington is unable to play in this game.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Chicago Bears						Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	48	21.75				-4.5	48	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.5	31	17	27		Offense	27.0	7	9	24
Opp. Defense	31.3	30	22	18		Opp. Defense	24.3	19	6	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	22	29	7	12		Chicago Bears	12	20	8	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jeffery	25	17	0	317		Hilton	44	25	2	336
White	36	19	0	187		Dorsett	18	9	1	215
Royal	22	18	2	241		Bray	1	1	0	7
Miller	21	18	3	156		Allen	19	11	1	133

Notable injuries and suspensions: Kevin White (CHI WR) – Out (Ankle) / Jeremy Langford (CHI RB) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Jay Cutler (CHI QB) – Doubtful (Thumb) / Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Questionable (Calf) / Alshon Jeffery (CHI WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Zach Miller (CHI TE) – Questionable (Ribs) / Ka’Deem Carey (CHI RB) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Donte Moncrief (IND WR) – Out (Shoulder)

CHI Matchup Rating: 7.5
IND Matchup Rating: 8.0

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: I really like this game from a fantasy perspective this week. There are some cheap options on each team, and neither defense is shut down caliber. The value starts with Brian Hoyer at quarterback for the Bears. You can make the argument that he’s a better fit for the team than Jay Cutler, and he helped guide the Bears to a solid home victory against the Lions. Hoyer remains priced as a super bargain, especially on FanDuel where he will only cost you $6,000 on a site that has a higher cap than DraftKings (where he costs $5,500). The Bears are projected to score over three touchdowns in this game, and I actually think their line is a little light. The Colts are allowing 277 yards a game through the air, though they will get better if Vontae Davis remains healthy. Despite this, the price tag on Hoyer is just too cheap to totally ignore. He’s a competent quarterback that can put up reasonable numbers at a cheap price. He’s cash game worthy if you are saving at the position.

Running Backs: Perhaps the Bears have found their starting running back. Jordan Howard looked very good in place of the injured Jeremy Langford last week, and John Fox has indicated that the Bears will utilize him as much as they can. He carried the ball 23 times for 111 yards last week, while newly signed Joique Bell carried it three times for just six yards. Howard even caught three passes to boot. He is a steady, safe option right now, and there is still some value left in his price tag on both major sites. I probably wouldn’t play Hoyer and Howard together, but they are both obvious value picks against the Colts.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery is clearly not 100%, and he has been used as a decoy more often this year. While he is on the field for a good chunk of snaps, he is barely averaging six targets per game. That’s not going to cut it for a #1 wide receiver when it comes to fantasy production. The Bears are also preparing to be without Kevin White for an extended time, so Eddie Royal and Cameron Meredith are going to get extended looks. Meredith played the most snaps of any Chicago wide receiver last week after White went down. I don’t mind either guy as a cheap WR option this week. Hoyer has also shown great rapport with TE Zach Miller, who remains vastly under-priced everywhere.

The Takeaway: There is a lot to like about the Bears, mainly because of injuries and pricing. Brian Hoyer, Jordan Howard, Zach Miller, Eddie Royal, and Cameron Meredith all have hefty roles now, and none of them will cost you very much. Don’t go overboard, but you can certainly play one or two Bears in your cash games and tournament lineups this week.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: In what is somewhat of a rarity, the Colts do not have their bye week after returning from London. That’s a tough draw. The Bears have also been much more competent defensively than I expected, as they dominated the Lions even without Kyle Fuller and Danny Trevathan. I don’t expect the success to continue, and the Colts have one of the higher team totals of the week. There are reasons to be concerned, especially with how bad the offensive line looked at times last week against Jacksonville. That said, there is little run game to speak of here, and Andrew Luck has learned to make plays on his own. His price is a little steep for my liking, but you can target him as part of a GPP stack with one of his receivers. I won’t look to him in cash games against Chicago’s eighth ranked pass defense — even though I do expect them to regress.

Running Backs: The Colts have not had a 100 yard rusher in a single game since 2012. 2012! Old man Frank Gore is not going to change that anytime soon. He has been serviceable this year, but his upside consists of about 70 yards and one touchdown. I don’t care how favorable the matchup is; he gets a thanks but no thanks.

Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton has endured some tough matchups this year, but the breakout games are coming. He has seen at least ten targets in every game, and he had a massive game against San Diego two weeks ago. Phillip Dorsett is not the answer and caught only one pass last week (though it was for a 64-yard touchdown). Hilton is going to soak up tons of targets for this team, and he is one of my top receiver plays of the week for all formats. There’s not much else of interest here, especially since the team still has a two-headed tight end monster of Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen.

The Takeaway: Indianapolis should be able to move the football in this one, but Andrew Luck seems over-priced and Frank Gore is old. My interest mainly lies in T.Y. Hilton, who should see his usual 10+ targets and be able to put up healthy numbers once again. He’s a solid play in all formats.

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