NFL Grind Down: Week 7
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our “DraftKings promo code” to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 9:30 a.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.2 | 8 | 22 | 4 | Offense | 18.8 | 30 | 10 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.3 | 30 | 22 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 16 | 19 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 22 | 29 | 16 | 15 | Buffalo Bills | 25 | 15 | 24 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 18 | 11 | 2 | 147 | Robinson | 60 | 28 | 5 | 488 | |
| Woods | 23 | 17 | 1 | 211 | Hurns | 43 | 29 | 4 | 460 | |
| Hogan | 18 | 14 | 2 | 179 | Lee | 6 | 3 | 0 | 52 | |
| Clay | 46 | 31 | 2 | 324 | Lewis | 20 | 6 | 0 | 48 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Karlos Williams (BUF, Out), Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson (JAC, Probable), T.J. Yeldon (JAC, Questionable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.0
JAC Matchup Rating: 3.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: EJ Manuel (FD $6,600, DK $5,100) will draw the start once again for the Bills, who are a different team with the former FSU quarterback under center than they are with Tyrod Taylor at the helm of the offense. While Manuel is capable enough of a runner, he’s not as dynamic as Taylor, and yet he also tends to thrive more in situations when he doesn’t have to throw the ball that often and chase the game. In his career, his four best QB Rating performances have all come in games in which he has thrown fewer than 30 passes. You wouldn’t think he would have to throw that often against a Jacksonville defense that grades out as one of the worst overall defensive units in the league, but they are better against the run than the pass according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Sixth against the run, 31st against the pass) and numberFire (15th, 32nd). This may frustrate Buffalo into going to the air more often than they’d like with a quarterback they’d prefer to just manage the game, which does present an interesting likely workload against a very bad pass defense. Manuel is not a player who should ever find himself under your finger or mouse when browsing for cash game signal callers, but in a tournament, he’s an interesting salary saver.
Running Game: Last week, against a slightly below-average run defense from Cincinnati (according to DVOA), LeSean McCoy (FD $7,700, DK $5,500) was able to have the sort of game we’d expect from the former fantasy superstar. Shady picked up 94 total yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, even in a loss, and looked healthy enough after spending a few weeks sidelined with a hamstring injury. No other Buffalo running back received a carry last week, and we should expect more of the same this week, as promising rookie Karlos Williams remains out with a concussion. The matchup is tougher than we’d like (as mentioned above), but that hasn’t stopped backs from scoring against the Jaguars due to sheer volume. The Jaguars have faced the second-most rushing attempts in the league so far this season, and while they’ve allowed a minuscule 3.4 yards per carry on those attempts, they have given up nine total touchdowns to backs and have looked quite prone to big plays from runners over the past couple of weeks. Add in a high-tempo opponent and a healthy “favorite” status for the Bills, and you can consider Shady as an option, especially on DraftKings, in tournament formats and as a viable but unnecessary cash game play. (There are simply a handful of better plays for cash games this week, which we’ll get to later.)
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin remain out for the Bills, which will likely lead to a ton of targets and opportunities for Charles Clay (FD $5,500, DK $4,300). The tight end saw 13 looks in the passing game last week, seven more than his next closest teammate. It’s his second 13-target game of the season, both coming with different quarterbacks, so it’s obvious that this offense in general trusts Clay as the top playmaker in the passing game with Watkins on the shelf. The Jags allowed Coby Fleener to have a big day in Week 4, and Rob Gronkowski went over 100 yards on only four catches against them in Week 3. He’s a great tournament play, but like McCoy, is not the top option for cash games thanks to some better matchups to come later. Chris Hogan (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) and Robert Woods (FD $4,900, DK $3,300) would be appealing against a Jacksonville secondary in disarray, but neither gets a good enough workload to justify the salary.
The Takeaway: The Bills get a favorable matchup against the Jaguars, but are missing so much talent on offense that it’s tough to find quality players who can take advantage of the poor opponent. LeSean McCoy is a solid play, while Charles Clay is a very good pick at tight end, and EJ Manuel is a tournament dart at quarterback. But no one in this game appears to justify going out of our way to play this early London game on Sunday, so I’d save any exposure to a tournament or two, where available.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Bills’ fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far this season has not been indicative of their level of play against the pass, at least not according to the underlying metrics. Buffalo ranks tenth in DVOA against opposing passing games, and seventh according to numberFire’s rankings. But yet they’ve allowed the tenth-most points to opposing quarterbacks, which admittedly includes Tom Brady, but also Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning, who both had multiple touchdowns against the Bills. Buffalo does force turnovers, which means Blake Bortles (FD $7,500, DK $5,400) will almost certainly lose a few points from interceptions and fumbles this week, but he also is in a very promising spot as an underdog in an up-tempo offense without a running game to fall back upon. He’s gonna throw a ton against a defense that is vulnerable to giving up fantasy points to passers, and his fair price means he’s a tournament option with a chance of posting a top-ten QB point total for a price barely closer to the middle of the pack.
Running Game: T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,500, DK $4,500) remains hurt, and will likely be a game-time decision. Toby Gerhart (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) and Denard Robinson (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) would then get the honors of suiting up to run behind a subpar offensive line against a defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to backs this season. The Football Outsiders and numberFire metrics suggest that a regression is coming for the Buffalo run defense, but I strongly doubt it happens against the terrible Jacksonville run offense. Fade this situation entirely, even if a less-than-100% T.J. Yeldon suits up.
Pass Catchers: Both Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby grade out as Pro Bowl-caliber corners for Buffalo, yet receivers have been able to find success against this defense so far this season. The shifty Julian Edelman and big-play secondary options Rishard Matthews and Marvin Jones had the biggest games, while Dwayne Harris and Donte Moncrief also had touchdowns and decent performances against Buffalo. “Top” wide receivers have the worst DVOA against the Bills in the NFL, while second and third options rank closer to the middle of the pack. This leads me to prefer Allen Hurns (FD $6,900, DK $5,300) over Allen Robinson (FD $7,000, DK $6,400), with Julius Thomas (FD $5,600, DK $4,500) squarely in play as well. All three players are hurt, so double check their statuses before the game starts, but any of them make for tournament options against a Buffalo team that allows the big play to receivers.
The Takeaway: Jacksonville are healthy underdogs, but against a defense that is prone to breakdowns and big plays in the passing game. The quarterback and a receiver or two make for an interesting tournament stack, but as mentioned above, this game is hardly worth going out of the way to play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 43 | 20 | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.0 | 19 | 29 | 16 | Offense | 19.5 | 28 | 20 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 15 | 9 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 29.6 | 31 | 4 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 10 | 9 | 19 | 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 | 17 | 27 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 33 | 13 | 0 | 174 | Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jackson | 38 | 20 | 2 | 306 | Garcon | 51 | 32 | 3 | 295 | |
| Murphy | 17 | 9 | 0 | 169 | Crowder | 37 | 27 | 0 | 246 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 139 | Reed | 34 | 24 | 1 | 278 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Doubtful), Chris Thompson, DeSean Jackson (WAS, Doubtful), Jordan Reed (WAS, Questionable)
TB Matchup Rating: 3.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Jameis Winston (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) has been very consistent with his fantasy point output this season, finishing with between 13.4 and 18.6 FanDuel points in every game. That’s obviously not six-figure, tournament-winning play, but it is a somewhat attractive option for cash games as a punt. Washington’s defensive backfield is injured, but playing well when healthy, so there’s unnecessary risk when considering a quarterback with such low potential volume. Washington ranks 11th in DVOA against the pass, and 21st in points allowed to quarterbacks. There are better ways to start a cash game lineup this week than Winston, and his upside is very limited.
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $7,200, DK $4,900) would now like to be known as the “Dougernaut,” and he gets a chance to prove whether he’s worthy of a nickname against a declining Washington run defense. After spending most of last year and the start of this year as one of the top run defenses in the league, Jay Gruden’s team has allowed 190+ total yards and a touchdown to two backs over the past two weeks. This presents an interesting opportunity for Martin, who is in a timeshare at running back, but is performing much better than his counterpart Charles Sims (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) when it comes to actually running the football. Sims is a better receiver, and the Bucs rotate him in to get snaps catching the ball, but if you want to bank on someone running well against Washington, it’s Martin. He has a two-to-one carry advantage in the red zone this season, and has scored three times on carries inside the opponent’s 20 on runs, plus an additional score through the air. His price is so similar to that of Todd Gurley that you would never consider him for cash games, but he is a very interesting pivot for tournaments.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $7,500, DK $6,400) has been impossible to figure out this season. He started off the season slow due to injury, but had a huge volume day against Houston in Week 3 with 17 targets. Since then, the Bucs have dialed down the passing game in general, and Evans just hasn’t been performing all that well. Sometimes, Vincent Jackson (FD $6,800, DK $5,300) gets a ton of looks instead of Evans, but other times he’s invisible as well. This offense is very tough to trust, as they’d love to give 15 touches to both of their backs, throw 20 times, and win on defense. That rarely works out, especially with how shaky the defense has been, but it’s a plan they’ll stick to if Washington lets them. I would save any exposure to Evans and Jackson for tournaments, as both could score a touchdown or two, but neither has a guaranteed eight targets, and both could be taken out of the game if the Bucs establish the run.
The Takeaway: The Bucs are expected to be held under 20 points in a low-scoring, unappealing affair. Doug Martin has value as a tournament pivot from the very popular Todd Gurley, but otherwise, there’s not a lot to like here.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: The last time the Buccaneers played a football game, they allowed four touchdowns and 300 yards to Blake Bortles. Only an injured Drew Brees and Ryan Mallett failed to find the end zone twice or more against this defense, but I still don’t trust Kirk Cousins (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) to stay out of his own way. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in every game this season, but never more than one, and has four games with multiple interceptions. Quarterback pricing isn’t that difficult this weekend, and I don’t think we need to drop this far down to find a value play, even in what seems like a good matchup.
Running Game: Matt Jones (FD $5,600, DK $3,200) and Alfred Morris (FD $5,600, DK $3,300) appear ready to split the volume two ways instead of three, as Chris Thompson (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) is questionable to suit up for this contest. But this isn’t a particularly appealing matchup for the running game, anyway. The Buccaneers rank 11th in DVOA against the run, and have clamped down against the run since “(player-popup)Alfred Blue” 31-carry, 139-yard game in Week 3. Both the Panthers and Jaguars were held under 100 total yards from their backs, and Washington has a poor offensive line outside of the questionable, concussed Trent Williams. If Thompson is indeed out, Jones theoretically holds PPR appeal, as Morris is a relatively poor receiver out of the backfield. But we can’t be sure Jones is going to take all of those targets, as they’re more likely to go to a couple of players we’ll mention in the next section…
Pass Catchers: Jamison Crowder (FD $5,800, DK $3,700) and Jordan Reed (FD $5,400, DK $4,200) both stand to benefit most from the possible absence of Chris Thompson, as the two reliable, short-yardage receivers for Washington will soak up some of the opportunities Thompson would have had in the short passing game. Thompson being out would help calm fears about Crowder’s workload with Reed back, because there would still be shoes that need filling, and the rookie from Duke has been steady and reliable as a possession receiver this year. However, he’s going to see some of his role reduced by the return of Reed, who had 34 targets in his first four games, and is one of Cousin’s favorite targets. If Antonio Gates is out, we have to consider Reed as a strong option, even though the Buccaneers have yet to allow more than 43 yards to a tight end so far this season, and have given up only one touchdown to the position. If he plays, I’m comfortable with him as a tournament option, and may consider him in cash games if Gates is out. Pierre Garcon (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) may be the most appealing player on this offense, though, as he faces a defense that ranks dead last against number one receivers and second-to-last against secondary receivers according to Football Outsiders. Garcon will move around and get open against Tampa Bay’s poor corners, and is a strong option in any format, held back only by his quarterback’s unreliability. Derek Carrier (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) is a great punt play if Reed is ruled out.
The Takeaway: Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder are all strong options, but it’s hard to imagine all three are going to hit value with such a low-ceiling quarterback under center. So tread with a bit of caution, but don’t shy away from the Washington offense in a prime matchup.
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
| Atlanta Falcons | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | 48 | 26 | 4 | 48 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | Offense | 22.4 | 16 | 26 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 20 | 2 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 17 | 26 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 18 | 5 | 9 | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 32 | 4 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 72 | 49 | 4 | 638 | Wright | 31 | 20 | 2 | 290 | |
| White | 21 | 11 | 1 | 138 | Green-Beckham | 11 | 6 | 2 | 92 | |
| Hankerson | 39 | 22 | 2 | 291 | Hunter | 16 | 11 | 0 | 166 | |
| Tamme | 25 | 19 | 0 | 230 | Walker | 29 | 22 | 1 | 244 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Hankerson, Roddy White (ATL, Questionable), Marcus Mariota (TEN, Out)
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Both Football Outsiders and numberFire indicate a huge split between how well the Titans defend the run, and how well they defend the pass. According to FO, the Titans are the sixth-best pass defense in the league, but the worst run defense. The statistics at numberFire paint a similar picture, ranking Tennessee 13th and 31st respectively. But the Titans are a really tough team to get a read on thanks to some really disparate results so far this year. A kickoff victory in blowout fashion over the Bucs was followed by a pretty lopsided loss to the Browns, then two close losses against the Colts and Bills, and then an ugly loss against Miami. This has led to all sorts of game scripts and situations, making it really tough to get a read on how this defense performs in competitive games without digging into the numbers. So far this season, the Titans have played 118 snaps with a game that’s within seven points. On those 118 plays, they’ve allowed 66 carries for 339 yards, over five yards per attempt, and five touchdowns. Through the air, they’ve allowed 473 yards on 47 attempts with four touchdowns and three interceptions. These are both poor showings for a defense, especially considering the caliber of opponent they’ve faced (Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami and the Colts with an injured Andrew Luck under center).
All of that to say, I don’t think the matchup is prohibitive for any member of the Atlanta offense. The biggest concern is going to be game script. The Falcons aren’t an unstoppable juggernaut, but the Titans are pretty bad, so Matt Ryan (FD $8,100, DK $7,200) may not have much of a chance to get things going before they shut things down and close up the playbook. Ryan hasn’t been the model for consistency this season, anyway, as he has failed to come anywhere near expectations in two of his last three outings. He has upside, because if this game remains competitive and he gets 40 attempts, the Titans may not have a chance of holding him under 300 yards and three touchdowns. But there’s too much risk from Ryan’s inconsistency to game script, so I’ll give him a “tournament only” tag.
Running Game: Devonta Freeman (FD $8,700, DK $7,900) has seen his price soar through the roof after his LaDainian Tomlinson-like stretch of performances. But it still might not be high enough. Freeman has gone over 29 FanDuel points in each of his last four games, and now faces a defense that allowed big games from Lamar Miller, Frank Gore and Isaiah Crowell. Even if you think Freeman is just an average to above-average back running good with some soft matchups, he’s got another one of those this week, and he shouldn’t be ignored. Even if you dial back his expectations from 30+ FanDuel points back to the 20 range, he’s still an excellent play, and one that will be popular for good reason. If this game stays close, Freeman will face a defense that is a yard per carry worse at stopping the run (when the game is within seven points), and that has allowed touchdowns at a much higher clip. And if it becomes a blowout, you almost have to assume it will be because Freeman either scored or helped set up a score on the first handful of Atlanta drives. Roster him with confidence in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Here is where it admittedly gets a bit tougher. We’ve established that, if this is a close game, the Falcons will be able to run or pass without any problem at all. Matt Ryan may throw an interception or two, but it won’t be because he’s challenged by the corners for Tennessee. Perrish Cox earns a passing grade from Pro Football Focus, but the other corners are all replacement level, and Julio Jones (FD $9,100, DK $9,100) will be the best player on the field when Atlanta has the ball. I question the wisdom in rostering Jones in cash games on DraftKings, where his huge salary takes up a bigger chunk of your overall cap space, and you don’t have a kicker spot to save a few bucks. But on FanDuel, if you’re not using Freeman, Jones is an option in cash games if you go cheap everywhere else, and he’s obviously a tournament option coming off of a set of fairly disappointing performances relative to salary. Now that it appears Roddy White (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) has got his legs back under him and is a part of the offense again, it makes both he and Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) tough to trust. It’s not great to only have three high-priced options to choose from in a game with such an appealing matchup, but maybe that’s a blessing in disguise with the risk of a blowout or a letdown from an unpredictable Falcons team.
The Takeaway: Ryan, Jones and Freeman are the three top options, with Freeman representing one of the top overall plays of the weekend. There are quite a few matchups this weekend that are very appealing and offer cheap players to build around, so it will be easy to ignore these high-priced Atlanta players, but that doesn’t mean you should.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Falcons rank in the bottom ten in points allowed to quarterbacks and receivers, but numberFire ranks them as the 25th pass defense in the NFL. Something’s got to give. Atlanta does have a great corner in Desmond Trufant, and a very good corner in Robert Alford, but otherwise, their defense is a mix of average players and a few guys below replacement level, according to PFF’s grades. However, the quarterback situation for Tennessee this weekend is unsettled, with Zach Mettenberger (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) getting the start. Mettenberger is capable of throwing for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns, but also capable of a total letdown game. He’s a tournament option at best.
Running Game: The season high for rushing attempts by a single Titans running back is 13, set Week 1 in a blowout win over the Bucs. Outside of that game, the Titans have handed the ball to a single player ten or more times only three times this year, and no back has more than four catches in a single game, as well. The Falcons have allowed plenty of fantasy points to opposing backs, but have respectable numbers per Football Outsiders and numberFire against the run. Just avoid this situation altogether.
Pass Catchers: Things are similarly frustrating and untouchable at receiver. Only twice has a Tennessee wideout seen more than six targets in a game this year, and with talented corners on the other side of the field this weekend, I’ll pass on the receivers for Tennessee. Their tight end, however, who has two ten-target games this season, is in play. Delanie Walker (FD $5,500, DK $3,900) is worth a spot on a couple of your tournament lineups this weekend against an Atlanta team that was lit up by Ben Watson a week ago.
The Takeaway: Pairing Mettenberger with Delanie Walker is an interesting tournament play, and Walker on his own is one of the better point per dollar options on the weekend slate. Otherwise, this offense is spread too thin to target for daily fantasy purposes.