NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-30 14:23:15

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Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks						New Orleans Saints
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	47.5	25				2.5	47.5	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.5	28	13	27		Offense	29.3	3	1	28
Opp. Defense	32.5	32	30	23		Opp. Defense	14.0	1	9	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	26	32	20	16		Seattle Seahawks	4	6	9	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	45	34	2	430		Cooks	50	32	4	486
Kearse	27	18	0	188		Snead	36	28	2	383
Lockett	22	13	0	165		Thomas	49	36	3	437
Graham	41	27	1	408		Fleener	37	21	2	281

Notable injuries and suspensions: Thomas Rawls (SEA RB) – Out (Fibula)

SEA Matchup Rating: 7.5
NO Matchup Rating: 4.5

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: There is no way you can convince me that Russell Wilson is anywhere close to 100%. Yes, he faced a tough defense in the Cardinals last week, but he had shredded them in their two most recent meetings. He ran the ball just once for a loss of one yard. When Russell Wilson isn’t making plays with his legs, he isn’t keeping the defense honest, and he’s not the best pocket passer on the planet. That’s a bad combination. This Saints defense is downright bad, but I cannot in good conscience recommend a 70% Russell Wilson against any defense. If you want to take on some risk in some GPP lineups, that makes sense, but you can’t play him in cash games right now.

Running Backs: Thomas Rawls could return as soon as next week, but for now this is the Christine Michael show, and the show should be much better for this episode against the Saints. New Orleans ranks 28th in DVOA against both the run and the pass, and Michael has been used almost exclusively as the early down back with C.J. Prosise getting in work on a few passing situations. Michael is coming off a down game against the Cardinals, and he’s a little over-priced for my liking, but this is the safest way to get exposure to a Seattle team that is projected to score 25 points against the Saints.

Pass Catchers: The struggles of Russell Wilson have translated to struggles for the receivers, too. Jermaine Kearse has no upside. Tyler Lockett is wildly inconsistent and disappears for long stretches. The safe routes are with Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham, and Graham has looked much healthier in recent weeks. Both guys are fine plays even though I won’t be playing Wilson in this one. They should both get plenty of looks and have a good chance to find the end zone. Graham is my #2 overall tight end this week behind Gronkowski in terms of gross point projections.

The Takeaway: Russell Wilson is clearly operating at less than 100%, which makes him very tough to trust. The best ways to get exposure to Seattle in a good matchup are through Christine Michael, Doug Baldwin, and/or Jimmy Graham.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Drew Brees is always good at home, but this matchup will put that to the test. Seattle has a top five defense in terms of DVOA against both the run and the pass, and it’s a little risky to pay up for Brees against an elite secondary. Both major sites are trying to tempt you by lowering his price tag a bit this week, but I haven’t rostered a quarterback against Seattle in a few years on a full slate, and I won’t be starting here. Brees was good on the road against Kansas City last week, throwing for 367 yards and three scores, but the Saints were in catch up mode from the outset. If that happens again, he could get his numbers based on sheer volume — but it’s no guarantee.

Running Backs: Mark Ingram saw 38 snaps last week compared to 29 for Cadet and Hightower combined, so he is getting about 55-60% of the snaps. That’s not a great number for a lead back, especially one that is staring at a tough matchup. This is an easy spot to avoid in Week 8.

Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and Michael Thomas saw a combined 33 targets last week against the Chiefs, an unusual circumstance for a Saints team that often spreads the ball around. I would expect Richard Sherman to shadow Cooks whenever he lines up outside, which could open up opportunities for Thomas and Snead. Again, this is no guarantee. Thomas is the cheapest and is coming off a 10/130 game, so he would make the most logical sense if you want to target any of the three. Coby Fleener is too inconsistent to use in a difficult matchup.

The Takeaway: The Saints players generally carry high price tags, which makes them tough to stomach in a matchup against a good defensive team in Seattle. The whole roster is nothing more than GPP flier-worthy this week, even though they generally play better at home.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Detroit Lions						Houston Texans
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	45	21.25				-2.5	45	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	11	10	24		Offense	16.7	31	30	12
Opp. Defense	22.0	14	2	29		Opp. Defense	24.3	21	23	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	6	20	3	7		Detroit Lions	32	12	23	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Tate	53	31	1	392		Hopkins	69	36	3	390
Jones	52	33	4	623		Fuller	47	24	2	349
Boldin	41	32	4	272		Miller	11	5	0	34
Ebron	25	18	1	210		Fiedorowicz	31	21	2	236

Notable injuries and suspensions: Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / Lamar Miller (HOU RB) – Questionable (Shoulder)

DET Matchup Rating: 6.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 7.0

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Listen, let’s pump the breaks just a little bit. I have seen some big name sources pumping up the Matthew Stafford for MVP talk here over the last few days, and that is just flat out nuts. Yes, he’s having a fine season, but his last four games have resulted in an average passing yard total of 232 yards. That’s not MVP-worthy, even though the Lions have won three of those games. He wasn’t good against Tennessee in Week 2, and he was downright terrible against the Bears. Houston ranks 7th in DVOA against the pass, and I never like Stafford as much on the road. Avoid the MVP-fraud-wannabe this week (though it’s no fault of his own).

Running Backs: As the Broncos showed on Monday night, this is where you can attack the Texans. They are very weak in the front seven, and they have problems containing opposing running backs. The problem is that Detroit doesn’t have any good running backs. Justin Forsett had eight carries for 33 yards last week. Zach Zenner had nine carries for 29 yards. Dwayne Washington and Theo Riddick are both expected to return this week, but who knows in what capacity. Keep an eye on this space for updates, likely by Friday, once we see the injury reports for this team.

Pass Catchers: The return of Riddick will eat into the short passing game roles of Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, both of whom picked up some slack in his absence. Marvin Jones has been relatively quiet since bursting out of the gate, and I just don’t like this matchup against the Texans. With Eric Ebron expected to return this week, too, this is another spot to pass on.

The Takeaway: The Lions don’t match up well with Houston. Their strength is also Houston’s defensive strength, and they won’t be able to take advantage via the run game. This is also a road game, but the one benefit is that Houston is on a short week after a Monday nighter. My opinion might change once we get clarity on injuries, but I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Detroit offense this week. Actually, I don’t mind the Houston defense as a nice sleeper pick here.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: Brock Osweiler is terrible. His “fumble” last week was completely unforced. It was something you would see on the old blooper videos… Football Follies or whatever it was called (setting the over/under at 5% of the audience that actually recognizes that name). The good news is that the Lions defense is also terrible. They made Case Keenum look really good. Kirk Cousins completed more than 75% of his throws last week. I can’t scrape the barrel for Osweiler in DFS, though. I would prefer to maybe take a receiver in order to get some exposure.

Running Backs: Lamar Miller is dealing with a minor shoulder injury and lost some snaps on Monday night, but Bill O’Brien insists that he is fine. If he truly is close to 100%, this is a mouthwatering matchup against that bad Detroit defense. Keep an eye on the injury reports and fire up Miller with confidence if he is a full go.

Pass Catchers: The struggles of Osweiler have taken their toll on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller this year. Osweiler threw for just 131 yards last week. Hopkins and Fuller got a healthy 19 total targets, but those resulted in just nine catches for 58 total yards, and that wasn’t the fault of the receivers. One of them is likely going to make a big play against this Detroit defense, and the key will be picking the right guy. Both are in play, especially for tournaments. If Darius Slay happens to shadow Hopkins, give Fuller a massive boost.

The Takeaway: What side will win out between the bad Detroit defense and the bad Brock Osweiler? Time will tell… Lamar Miller (if healthy) is your safest cash game play here, while DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are interesting tournament targets.

FRIDAY UPDATE – DeAndre Levy and Darius Slay, two of Detroit’s top defenders, are both out. Slay’s absence really upgrades the matchup for Houston’s wide receivers… if Osweiler can get them the ball.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

New York Jets						Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.0	30	26	21		Offense	18.6	27	23	8
Opp. Defense	29.6	30	29	31		Opp. Defense	25.7	23	27	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	31	26	25	32		New York Jets	24	14	30	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	68	30	2	472		Pryor	63	35	3	431
Enunwa	48	32	2	409		Hawkins	28	17	1	193
Marshall	11	6	0	75		Louis	26	14	0	151
Davis	1	0	0	0		Barnidge	40	30	0	361

Notable injuries and suspensions: Cody Kessler (CLE QB) – Out (Concussion) / Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand)

NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.5

New York Jets

Quarterback: Everyone seems to fire up a crazy cash game quarterback recommendation every week, so perhaps this week Fitzmagic will be the poster boy for that. He was good last week in relief of the injured Geno Smith, but there’s a reason he got benched in the first place. Even against Cleveland’s college level defense, it’s tough to click that button. He’s GPP-only for me and a must pair with Brandon Marshall in that scenario.

Running Backs: After a few down weeks, Matt Forte re-emerged as the clear lead dog in New York, seeing 57 of a possible 69 snaps on Sunday against the Ravens. The game script for this one sets up very well in a game where the Jets should control the clock and grab a lead. Forte is relatively affordable after his struggles and is a fine mid-range target, especially in cash games, this week.

Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall didn’t have a big game against Baltimore, but he still saw a team-leading eight targets. He should also feast against a bad Cleveland pass defense which allowed 169 yards to a similarly physical wide receiver in A.J. Green last week. Marshall is my #1 receiver option when you factor in price on FanDuel this week. Because of the salary structures, players are “similarly priced” on DK and FD when their DK price is about $1,000 lower than their FD price. In the case of Marshall, he is $400 MORE on DK than on FD this week. I don’t see how you pass on Marshall on FanDuel given that discrepancy, and he’s still playable on DK. Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson are interesting value plays if you need a punt, though both saw small dips in their snap counts a week ago.

The Takeaway: The Browns are a terrible defense, ranking 30th in DVOA against both the run and the pass. Fire up any Jets skill players you want to in this one, with Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall available on the high end and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Quincy Enunwa, and Robby Anderson available on the cheap end. It’s hard to pass on Marshall with his ridiculous FanDuel price, while Matt Forte is a great option with the projected game flow in his favor.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: Robert Griffin is out. Josh McCown has been out but wants to play this week. Cody Kessler is battling a concussion. If none of them can play, it’s rookie read option quarterback Kevin Hogan calling the signals for the Browns. He did rush for over 100 yards last week, but he’s not a reliable fantasy option. Since we don’t even know who is going to start here with any type of clarity, we have to avoid the situation for now, even against the terrible New York pass defense.

FRIDAY UPDATE – McCown will start at QB, and he is in the value conversation. I do worry about Hogan possibly stealing some red zone carries in the read option. McCown not a must play by any means.

Running Backs: The Jets are a true funnel defense, ranking 3rd in DVOA against the run and 31st against the pass. The only RB to have any success against them so far has been David Johnson, and Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are by no means David Johnson. They are seeing pretty close to a 50/50 time share, and I have no interest in either guy against the Jets.

Pass Catchers: Terrelle Pryor was limited by a hamstring injury last week and only played 31 snaps. The rest of the healthy receiving corps is a joke, as Corey Coleman is not likely to return until next week. If McCown is cleared and starts at QB, and Pryor is cleared for 100% of his usual snaps, I like Pryor here in a favorable matchup. If Pryor is still hobbled or the run-first Hogan starts at QB, you can’t use Pryor or any of these receivers.

The Takeaway: If Kevin Hogan is forced to start at quarterback, I really like the Jets defense this week. Hogan can’t stretch the field against their bad pass defense, and the Jets generally do a good job at stopping the run. Keep an eye on the QB and WR situation here, as that will impact the viability of both the Jets defense and Terrelle Pryor.

FRIDAY UPDATE – The return of McCown helps Terrelle Pryor, and don’t forget that McCown has had a good rapport with Gary Barnidge in the past. This could be a sneaky spot at < 5% ownership in GPPs.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers						Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	53	25				-3	53	28
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.3	14	20	19		Offense	32.7	1	2	14
Opp. Defense	28.4	27	31	10		Opp. Defense	20.5	11	17	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	29	27	16	29		Green Bay Packers	10	1	18	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	51	27	5	321		Jones	65	40	4	830
Cobb	55	39	2	388		Sanu	40	23	2	258
Adams	43	28	5	350		Hardy	12	9	2	70
Cook	11	6	0	53		Tamme	29	20	3	191

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jared Cook (GB TE) – Out (Ankle) / James Starks (GB RB) – Out (Knee) / Randall Cobb (GB WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Ty Montgomery (GB RB/WR) – Questionable (Illness) / Tevin Coleman (ATL RB) – Out (Hamstring)

GB Matchup Rating: 8.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.5

Green Bay Packers

Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Randall Cobb is not expected to play in Week 8.

Quarterback: Panic in Green Bay was starting to hit new highs when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers scored just six points in the first half against an awful Chicago team last Thursday. That concern was quelled in the second half as Rodgers threw three touchdown passes on his way to a 326 yard day. With both Eddie Lacy and James Starks sidelined, you are going to see Rodgers sling it a ton. The running back crew is basically down to newly minted Ty Montgomery and recent signee Knile Davis. Atlanta ranks in the bottom third of the league in pass defense, so Rodgers should be able to build on his momentum from last week. He still has a bit of risk and he is priced based on his name value, but he in play in a likely shootout game which features the highest Vegas total of the week at 52 1/2 points.

Running Backs: Knile Davis will likely be eased in, so this is now Ty Montgomery job. Some sites have started to move him to RB eligibility, while some still have him at WR. I won’t overpay for him this week, but he does provide value with the rushing attempts and his ability to catch plenty of short passes. On the sites where he’s still in the low to mid range, he is a fine play once again this week. Atlanta isn’t much better against the run than against the pass. Montgomery showed off his athleticism and versatility with nine carries for 60 yards and 10 catches for 66 yards against the Bears. His value is much greater in full PPR formats.

Pass Catchers: Jordy Nelson is not getting much separation at the line of scrimmage, as evidenced by this awesome tweet I saw last week. It’s no wonder that he only had one catch on four targets last week, while Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Montgomery combined to catch 10+ passes each. I’ve already touched on Montgomery, but Adams and Cobb are quietly becoming elite options. Their price tags aren’t rising as fast as their production, and with the Packers going to a more pass-happy approach, their arrows are pointing straight up.

The Takeaway: Green Bay is in a good spot to keep the offensive momentum going after their great second half against the Bears. With little run game to speak of outside of hybrid guy Ty Montgomery, the passing threats are where we can focus our attention. Rodgers, Adams, Cobb, and Montgomery are all in play in this one. Both sides of this contest represent a nice shootout game stack that you can use in GPPs, too.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan leads the NFL in passing yards by a wide margin, and the Packers could be down their top three cornerbacks this week. Sam Shields is on IR, Damarious Randall had surgery on a groin injury and is out, and Quinten Rollins has missed the last two games. This could get ugly, as the Packers aren’t a great pass defense even with everyone healthy. You can make a case for Matt Ryan as the top per-dollar QB option this week.

Running Backs: Tevin Coleman appears unlikely to play in this game after getting hurt last week, so that gives Devonta Freeman a massive boost. This will no longer be a 50/50 time share, as the only other RB on the roster is recently signed Stevan Ridley. Freeman is dealing with a hip injury of his own, but it is not expected to limit him in this game. The Packers still boast solid rush defense numbers, but they haven’t faced many good running backs. The one good running back they faced was Ezekiel Elliott, and he had a fine day against them. Assuming he is healthy, Freeman is a great option in any format with the backfield all to himself.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Coleman is out. Freeman is not on the injury report. Proceed with Freeman.

Pass Catchers: The Packers are down three corners and they have to face Julio Jones. Good luck, fellas. Freeman also catches a lot of passes out of the backfield. Nobody else caught more than two balls against San Diego. It’s Julio all day here, and he’s pretty easily the top overall wide receiver of the week on a gross fantasy point basis (as mentioned earlier, I like Brandon Marshall better on a points per dollar basis on FanDuel).

The Takeaway: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should have a field day. Devonta Freeman gets a big boost with Tevin Coleman likely out, assuming this injury report holds up. All three players are exceptional plays in Week 8’s most likely shootout.

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