NHL Grind Down: Monday, February 6th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers
| St. Louis Blues | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-22-5 | 26-20-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.81 | 3.10 | 22.10% | 83.50% | Team Stats | 2.62 | 2.98 | 21.40% | 81.00% |
The 2016-17 campaign has not gone the way many expected in St. Louis. They’ve struggled to some degree in every facet of the game (mainly goaltending) and it finally resulted in the firing on head coach Ken Hitchcock last week. New coach Mike Yeo clearly has some work to do, but this team is still very much in the play hunt in the Western Conference and there’s no doubt they have the talent level to get things headed back in the right direction. It’s no secret that Vladimir Tarasenko is the focal point of this offense and the Russian sniper is having yet another tremendous offensive season. He leads the team with 23 goals and 27 assists in 52 games and is once again playing alongside Jaden Schwartz and Jori Lehtera on a forward line that has terrorized opposing goaltenders in recent seasons. With Robby Fabbri lost for the season with an ACL injury, Yeo will be expecting the trio of Alex Steen, Paul Stastny and David Perron to pick up the slack offensively. Steen’s numbers are a bit underwhelming this season, but he has heated up down the stretch and now owns seven goals and nine assists in 15 games since the beginning of January. The St. Louis defense has been a fine source for fantasy points all season and there’s no reason to believe that will change anytime soon. Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko are all seeing huge ice-time numbers and absorb all of the available playing time on the point of the power-play. Shattenkirk lit the lamp in the first meeting between these two teams and has the most offensive upside, making him my preferred target of the three.
The Flyers wake up today narrowly hanging on to a playoff spot in the crowded Eastern Conference. Their ten game winning streak from earlier this season is long in the rear view mirror and their fresh off of a 1-0 shutout loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday. With a very heavy road schedule awaiting them down the stretch, they really need to take care of business on their current five game home-stand and getting two points tonight against St. Louis is crucial. Offensively, the Flyers have two very potent offensive lines that require your attention, especially considering Jake Allen struggles between the pipes for St. Louis. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek are one of the most dangerous tandems in the NHL today and headline the top line (with Michael Raffl) and the #1 power-play unit. Voracek leads the team with 45 points on the young season and has thrived at the Wells Fargo Center where he’s posted 12 goals and 18 assists in just 27 home games. Meanwhile, it was actually the duo of Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds that gave St. Louis the most trouble when these teams met earlier this season. Those two combined for two goals and two assists in that meeting and figure to draw the better matchup as Alex Steen will likely be asked to slow down Giroux/Voracek. On defense, Mark Streit return has muddied the waters a bit. The veteran blue-liner has been seeing the bulk of the playing time with the #1 power-play unit while promising young defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov have been stuck watching. The morning skate should uncover some added details, but continuing to scratch a player of Gostisbehere’s talent will be tough for Dave Hakstol to justify.
St. Louis Blues
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.52 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 102.76 CP60
Elite Options
Vladimir Tarasenko ($8,100 FD, $7,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.44 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 100.33 PDO
Jaden Schwartz ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.1 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 101.97 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk ($6,000 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.22 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 98.12 PDO
Secondary Options
Alex Steen ($6,400 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 47.48 CF60, 1.95 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
Paul Stastny ($5,800 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51 CF60, 2.08 xGF60, 100.89 PDO
David Perron ($4,800 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.66 CF60, 2.23 xGF60, 98.39 PDO
Colton Parayko ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.31 CF60, 2.12 xGF60, 99.4 PDO
Alex Pietrangelo ($5,600 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.85 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 101.12 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jake Allen – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Philadelphia Flyers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.98 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -25, 114.99 CP60
Elite Options
Claude Giroux ($7,500 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.41 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 96.7 PDO
Jakub Voracek ($6,700 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.03 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 96.92 PDO
Wayne Simmonds ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.15 CF60, 2.16 xGF60, 97.44 PDO
Secondary Options
Brayden Schenn ($6,000 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.76 CF60, 2.16 xGF60, 97.52 PDO
Michael Raffl ($3,600 FD, $3,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.54 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 98.54 PDO
Shayne Gostisbehere ($4,400 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.9 CF60, 2.69 xGF60, 95.41 PDO (watch his status)
Ivan Provorov ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.14 CF60, 1.96 xGF60, 99.12 PDO
Mark Streit ($4,300 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.37 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 96.82 PDO
Expected Netminder
Steve Mason – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Thomas Greiss | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-17-9 | 22-18-10 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.08 | 2.86 | 23.50% | 83.70% | Team Stats | 2.92 | 2.90 | 15.50% | 81.00% |
In what will likely be the most heavily targeted game of the evening, the Toronto Maple Leafs will head to Brooklyn to face the New York Islanders. Toronto skated to a much needed victory in Boston over the weekend and right in the thick of things for one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. With New York currently sitting in the cellar of the Metropolitan Division, Mike Babcock knows his team can’t afford to leave two points on the table in winnable games down the stretch. Toronto continues to be the fastest paced team in the NHL (120.77 CP60) and New York has had all kinds of trouble in their defensive end this season (2.90 goals against per game). Toronto is fortunate to have plenty of forward depth at their disposal, but several players have emerged as the top fantasy options. James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Mitchell Marner continue to be one of the most dangerous trios on the NHL. Marner actually leads the team with 44 points and deserves a bit more Calder Trophy attention than he seems to be getting currently. Speaking of Calder Trophy consideration, his teammate Auston Matthews looks like the front-runner at the moment. Matthews has scored 23 goals and added 19 assists in 50 games and is fresh off of a three assist performance against Boston on Saturday. He’ll center Connor Brown and Zach Hyman at even strength and that makes both Hyman and Brown fine value options and pairing them with Matthews helps offset some of his big-ticket asking price. On defense, three guys deserve your attention as Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitev have all shown plenty of offensive upside and are locked into huge minutes.
A terrible start to the season has left the Islanders with very little to play for at this point in the season, but they have been playing much better hockey lately despite dropping each of their last two games. While their defense has consistently been a problem all season, this team does possess plenty of offensive firepower and a home matchup against the up-tempo Toronto Maple Leafs in great news from a fantasy perspective. Breaking down the New York offensive attack has to start with captain John Tavares. He leads the team with 20 goals and 23 assists in 50 games this season and has racked up nine goals and seven assists in his last 11 games. Josh Bailey and Anders Lee both benefit from playing on his wings on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and that alone makes them fine options this evening. Alternatively, Brock Nelson has topped 20 goals in each of the last two seasons and the former first-round pick has now picked up points in each of the last three games. He scored a goal and added an assist in his only previous meeting against this Toronto team and his likely low(ish) ownership rates make him a very interesting GPP play. Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk soak up most of the available playing time on the point of the power-play and are the top options on the New York blue-line. With eight goals and 19 assists in 49 games, Leddy has shown the most offensive upside.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.28 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 4, 120.77 CP60
Elite Options
Auston Matthews ($7,300 FD, $7,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.98 CF60, 3.24 xGF60, 99.69 PDO
James van Riemsdyk ($7,600 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.76 CF60, 3.08 xGF60, 100.78 PDO
Mitchell Marner ($6,800 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.96 CF60, 3.11 xGF60, 101.64 PDO
Jake Gardiner ($4,300 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.06 CF60, 3.24 xGF60, 101.45 PDO
Secondary Options
Tyler Bozak ($5,700 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.76 CF60, 3.17 xGF60, 101.25 PDO
Nazem Kadri ($6,900 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.98 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 99.26 PDO
William Nylander ($5,300 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.35 CF60, 3.17 xGF60, 99.03 PDO
Morgan Rielly ($4,300 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.45 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 97.92 PDO
Nikita Zaitsev ($4,400 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.33 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 100.26 PDO
Expected Netminder
Frederik Andersen – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
New York Islanders
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.1 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 9, 118.12 CP60
Elite Options
John Tavares ($8,300 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.26 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 101.28 PDO
Anders Lee ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.07 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 102.04 PDO
Nick Leddy ($5,100 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53 CF60, 2.26 xGF60, 100.82 PDO
Secondary Options
Josh Bailey ($5,600 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.94 CF60, 2.72 xGF60, 100.88 PDO
Andrew Ladd ($5,000 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.66 CF60, 2.21 xGF60, 98.3 PDO
Brock Nelson ($4,800 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.22 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 102.63 PDO
Johnny Boychuk ($4,800 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.95 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 99.55 PDO
Expected Netminder
Thomas Greiss – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils
| Buffalo Sabres | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Cory Schneider | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 21-20-10 | 22-21-10 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.43 | 2.71 | 22.30% | 74.50% | Team Stats | 2.30 | 2.83 | 15.50% | 81.20% |
While it’s going to be another early end to the season in Buffalo once again, the Sabres do at least seem to be trending in the right direction. The picked up an impressive 4-0 shutout victory over the Ottawa Senators over the weekend and now own a 8-5-2 record since the calendar flipped to 2017. Tonight, they’ll head out for a quick one game stop in New Jersey to face a Devils team who has defeated them in both prior meetings this season. With that said, New Jersey ranks as the second worst puck possession team in the NHL this season (46.34 CF%) and it’s tough to overlook Buffalo on this short three-game slate. While Dan Bylsma’s insistence on trying to create three scoring lines is a bit frustrating, the Sabres do have some dangerous offensive weapons to throw over the boards. Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo join forces on the top forward line and both forwards are in the midst of solid offensive seasons. Okposo leads the team with 32 points and scored the game winning goal (his 16th goal of the season) against Ottawa on Saturday. Meanwhile, Jack Eichel is the centerpiece of Buffalo’s “rebuild” and the phenom is thriving alongside fellow second overall pick Sam Reinhart on the second line. Eichel dished out a pair of assists against Ottawa on Saturday and Reinhart scored his 11th goal of the season. Evander Kane is left out of the mix at even strength, but he does see a healthy dose of playing time with the second power-play unit and that does make him an intriguing GPP play considering New Jersey’s middling penalty kill. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen has proven to be the top option. He quarterback’s the top power-play unit, owns 29 points in 51 games, and does a fine job racking up the peripheral stats. If you’re searching for value, Cody Franson has turned up his offense lately and now owns two goals and four assists in his last seven games and sees a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the #2 power-play.
The New Jersey Devils have been one of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL this season (2.30 goals per game), but they erupted for five goals against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday and it’s tough to overlook anyone on this short of a slate. As mentioned above, they have defeated the Buffalo Sabres in both prior meetings this season and do have two dangerous forward lines to keep an eye on tonight. Taylor Hall stands out as easily their most lethal offensive weapon. The 25 year-old leads the way with 35 points in just 43 games and his top-end offensive abilities elevate the fantasy outlook of his very capable linemates Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri. Hall dished out three assists in those two games against Buffalo and has picked up two goals and two assists in the three games since the All-Star break. Alternatively, Adam Henrique headlines a very solid secondary scoring line alongside Michael Cammalleri and Miles Wood. All six forwards also see plenty of run with the man-advantage and that’s a huge boost tonight as the Sabres own the worst penalty kill in the Eastern Conference (74.5%). The options on the New Jersey blue-line are not overly exciting, but that poor Buffalo penalty kill does shoot Damon Severson and Andy Greene up my rankings a bit this evening.
Buffalo Sabres
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.23 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 110.67 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan O’Reilly ($5,700 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.83 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 102.26 PDO
Jack Eichel ($7,300 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.58 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 100.62 PDO
Kyle Okposo – 16-17 Metrics – 54 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 100.77 PDO
Rasmus Ristolainen – 16-17 Metrics – 50.72 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 101.27 PDO
Secondary Options
Sam Reinhart ($5,100 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.67 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 100.15 PDO
Evander Kane ($6,400 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.41 CF60, 2.5 xGF60, 98.1 PDO
Tyler Ennis ($4,300 FD, $3,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.8 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 96.28 PDO
Cody Franson ($3,700 FD, $3,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.36 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 100.09 PDO
Expected Netminder
Robin Lehner – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
New Jersey Devils
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 46.34 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -19, 103.04 CP60
Elite Options
Taylor Hall ($6,800 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.21 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 99.19 PDO
Kyle Palmieri ($6,100 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 48.03 CF60, 2.08 xGF60, 103.92 PDO
Secondary Options
Travis Zajac ($4,300 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.03 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 100.29 PDO
Adam Henrique ($5,200 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.26 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 101.11 PDO
Mike Cammalleri ($5,100 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 46.63 CF60, 2.04 xGF60, 104.01 PDO
Miles Wood ($3,600 FD, $3,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 38.81 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 102.62 PDO
Damon Severson ($3,700 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.04 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 97.43 PDO
Andy Greene ($3,400 FD, $3,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.4 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 98.27 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cory Schneider – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP