The Fantasy Grout, Week 15
It’s Week 15. We’re all exhausted. I know that no one is looking for a long intro. Let me just lay out a couple random things on my mind, and then we’ll get into it.
1) It has to be a complete overlap. If you like Sister Act 2, you like Pitch Perfect. If you like Pitch Perfect, you like Sister Act 2. If you like neither, I don’t like you.
2) If a butterfly flutters by, does the poem just write itself?
3) It is a fact that a pot of boiling water freezes faster than a pot of water at room temperature. A fact. Yet it makes no sense to me. Doesn’t the boiling water have to get to room temperature on its way to freezing? Is this essentially a scientific running start? If a movement ever starts which doubts science, this fact will be the very first crack. It doesn’t make sense.
4) If aliens ever come to earth, they are going to take one look at us following our pets around, picking up their poop, before they decide we’re not actually the rulers but rather the servants. And, they won’t be wrong.
5) My favorite breakfast food is the remnants of a chicken miscarriage. I am not a good person.
6) Justin Timberlake / Lonely Island triology of Dick in a Box, Mother Lover, and The Golden Rule is on par with the greatest trilogies in our history.
7) I read somewhere that Cleopatra lived her life closer in time to the building of Pizza Hut than the building of the Great Pyramid. Am I wrong when I think the invention of pizza was the better invention? So you stacked the rocks tall. Big deal.
8) I think Kramer’s roll-out tie dispenser is actually an excellent idea. The decision we made, as a society, to place the tie directly in-line with the mouth was one of the most egregious errors we’ve made. Might as well just name it it the Ketchup Ketcher.
9) Running marathons is stupid. We have cars now.
10) The next great innovation in fantasy will be point-per-first-down. I’m excited just thinking of it. The whole field becomes a red zone!
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
It occurs to me, now breaking down the Grout picks every week, that you can classify each batch of picks as “up-and-down” in some way, shape, or form. This week was no different. It was up-and-down by position. Running back was nearly the nuts, and quarterback / tight end had a hit and a miss. Meanwhile, at wide receiver … let’s just call those picks an incomplete pass.
Trevor Siemian had not just the highest PT/$K among all Grout QBs. He had the number one mark among all QBs on the Sunday slate. Short of Izzy Mandelbaum’s logic that “’World’s Greatest’ is better than just Number One, ” you can’t do better than “Number One.” Kaepernick, despite a hot start, finished just below the 50th percentile, in points per $1,000.
Le’Veon Bell (#3) and Jeremy Hill (#5), were the only non-Grout backs among the Top 15. All the value plays hit at the running back position, basically. That said, the four backs suggested here last week finished #4 (Lamar Miller), #6 (Isaiah Crowell), #7 (Rob Kelley), and #11 (Todd Gurley) among all Grout backs. Then, when you factor in that three of the Top 8 were backups aided partially or entirely by injury, it makes the picks look even better.
The best thing I did from a Grout wide receiver standpoint was urge a fade of Ted Ginn. San Diego’s pass rush is making it hard to let plays develop, and Cam Newton isn’t exactly an honor student in the school of reading defenses and getting the ball out quick. As the seventh-most owned receiver in the FF Millionaire, Ginn put up 4.6 points on a $4,000 salary this week.
At tight end, the PerpCorbTocks worked, as it always does. Four Grout tight ends had over 4 PT/$K, Charles Clay, Trey Burton, Daniel Brown, and Kyle Rudolph. A two clicks below them was Jermaine Gresham and his 3.8 PT/$K (9.5 points, $2,500). Unfortunately, I chose my other tight end for my Grout for a Shout pick. As I chronicled in the Stuff Happened – Week 14 Edition, my run-bad continued in the red zone with C.J. Fiedorowicz.
Enough with looking back, let’s make like an Uber driver at bar time and surge into prices.
The Fantasy Grout
A sturdy fantasy wall takes two components. The high-priced building blocks, which help make the wall big and the Grout, which holds the wall together. Here, we discuss the latter. The value plays you need to be able to fit Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson into your lineup every week. We use the newly changed pricing parameters listed below, and we evaluate everything on a points-per-$1,000-of-salary basis. Plus, some humor, if you know what I meme.
$6,000-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
This week, there are as many tight ends over our price limit as there are minimum-salaried tight ends (8). Like so many weeks before it, Week 14 showed that cheap tight ends give you strong value, on a point-per-dollar basis, but you must spend up to get the higher raw point totals. The only tight ends to crack 16 on the main slate, both putting up in excess of 21, were non-Grout. I’m not saying you should skip this section, but if you’d like to win 30% of the FF Millionaire’s prize pool, maybe just browse.
(Yep. Now, with the purse having shrunk to $3.33 Million, the $1,000,000 top prize is a full three-tenths of the prize money. That’s a stark contrast to the 17% that Week 1’s $1 Million would have represented, had it filled. If this week’s tournament fills and you don’t take first in it, you will be among the $3,847,473 in remaining entry fees chasing $2,330,000 in remaining prizes. That EV is so negative, you almost need to use red font to type it.)
YADA, YADA
Ladarius Green, $3,700 AT CIN – This is the closest you’re going to get to “stud” upside at a Grout price. If you’re looking to play Green, you’d be wise to take Officer Ramathorn’s advice.
In this case, “that little guy” is his snap percentage. He’s played on only 38% of the Steelers offensive snaps over the last three weeks, but has been targeted on 23% of Roethlisberger’s throws. Though, “that little guy” could just as easily refer to Sammie Coates’s reception total in the last six games (0) or Eli Rogers, in general (5’ 10”).
One “little guy” you should definitely note is the little amount of defense the Bengals play against tight ends, allowing the third most receptions, fourth most touchdowns, and the most yards to the position. Pittsburgh has, for sure, noted it. In their last three regular season matchups, the Bengals have allowed Steeler TE totals of 5/55/2 on 9 targets (Week 2, 2016), 10/66 on 13 targets (Week 14, 2015), and 10/105 on 13 targets (Week 8, 2013). That’s to Jesse James, Xavier Grimble, and the corpse of Heath Miller, mind you. The difference between them and Green, who stands 6’ 6” and runs a 4.53 40-yard dash is far from … little.
GANG GROUT
Jermaine Gresham, $2,500 VS NO – I’m much more likely to play Green in my actual lineup, but from a value standpoint, Gresham’s the better play. He’s averaged nearly eight targets a game over his last three, catching exactly five balls in each of them, for an average of 44 yards. Even if you ignore his one score in that span, he’s averaging over 3.5 PT/$K.
With the Carson Palmer Rule continuing to be the reverse Police, where whoever stands the closest to him is most likely to get the ball, Gresham’s position just down the line bodes well for his prospects again this week.
And as a leftover NOTE from last week, I’ll mention that if C.J. Fiedorowicz is unable to play this week, Ryan Griffin makes an even better $2,500 tight end than Gresham.
WIDE RECEIVER
We here in Groutland would like to welcome in our second preseason Top 10 receiver. Joining Allen Robinson, who was $5,000 last week against Minnesota and has sagged all the way down to $4,400 this week versus Houston, is DeAndre Hopkins. The Texan wide out has caught a bad case of the Osweilers. Frankly, that’s about all he’s caught recently, having only snagged just five balls in the last two weeks combined.
The Oweilers aren’t easy to shake. I suggest you not be tempted by Hopkins’ $5,000 price tag. Once he’s gotten adequate treatment, namely a Week 1 dose of Romocillin, you can feel free to use him again.
YADA, YADA
Pierre Garcon, $4,700 VS CAR – In 13 weeks, Garcon has put up 14.1 points (3x on $4,700) five times. Three of the most recent four instances were games where either DeSean Jackson or Jordan Reed played under a quarter of the snaps or sat entirely. Keep an eye on this week’s practice report. If Reed looks less than 100%, whatever percent he is less than 100% is the percent of Garcon you should have this week. #Math
Mike Wallace, $4,800 VS PHI – Mr. Big Play, meet The Big Play Vending Machine.
The Eagles, have allowed 50 20-yard pass plays this season, tied for the league lead. DeSean Jackson took advantage of their hospitality last week, getting behind the defense for an 80-yard treat. Wallace is cut from the exact same cloth, so it would be Einstein’s definition of insane to expect different results from the same parameters. And, if the crazy happens and a big one doesn’t drop, he has a nice little 9- or 10-point floor now, buoyed by nearly eight targets a game.
Wondering why the Eagles have created more big plays than Shakespeare? I know a guy who can help with that.
I should also mention that for the second week in a row, I’m not personally recommending Robby Anderson, this time for $4,200. I’m still not comfortable with Bryce Petty, the Heartbreaker. Let me instead, go full-Ghost and act as the medium:
GANG GROUT
Cameron Meredith, $4,200 VS GB – Meredith is running out of the slot now-a-days, and in the last two weeks with Matt Barkley slinging it, he’s averaged 4.5 grabs for 70 yards and a half a TD. Micah Hyde, the Packers slot corner, was allowing the highest quarterback rating of all qualified CBs in the NFL, coming into Week 14. The round peg fits in the round hole so well, you don’t even have to CamMer it down.
There is some concern about Alshon Jeffery stepping back in to take his lead-share of the targets back, but like Anderson above, sometimes you’ve just go to trust the #BackUpConnection.
Corey Coleman, $4,100 AT BUF – More connections than the Are You The One this week! (#AYTO premieres January 11th. Get your spreadsheets ready!) Coleman and Griffin seem to be a thing. In Griffin’s first week back, his target totals were Coleman-11, Every Other Cleveland WR Combined-4. Coleman led the team in receiving yards in Week 1, as well, which Griffin’s only other game under center for the Browns. For the Bills guys on the outside, Darby and Gilmore, allowing some big plays this season has been part of the equation. Nothing solves for “x” better than Coleman’s 4.37, where x = 30+ yard plays.
RG^3 + CC = TD
RUNNING BACK
Last week, the step-by-step breakdown produced stellar results, with one glaring exception. Eliminating back-ups off the top proved detrimental, as several ended up at just that spot, the top. Off the top of my head, there’s only one “backup” I would consider rostering this week, and at $5,000, Tevin Coleman seems too pricey, even considering his top-of-the-line matchup with the 49ers. That means I’m back to the drawing board with 18 starters at $5,500-or-below.
YADA, YADA
Isaiah Crowell, $4,100 AT BUF – I don’t know if you heard, but Buffalo gave up a few yards on the ground last week. The eleventh-most single-game yards from scrimmage in NFL history, to be exact. In the game before that Lev-Bomb dropped, they allowed 105 yards and two scores to Latavius Murray. Now, reeling, they face off with Crowell who put up an 11.3 YPC last week.
Despite only targeting running backs on five throws, last week, Griffin was a check-down machine in the preseason. If the game script flips against a team yet to win a game, Crowell can still get to value, with his pathway being the pass way.
Rob Kelley, $4,700 VS CAR – I know it’s a mid-to-bad matchup. I don’t care. I don’t care. I don’t care.
The offense is humming. The coach let it be known last week that he didn’t see anything wrong with bumping R. Kelley’s carries up and letting him grind. There’s no reason to think this week, he’d push the carry count back Down Low or Switch Up who gets the work. I Believe Kelley’s a Rock Star When Monday Night ends, those that owned him are going to be Happy People.
GANG GROUT
Justin Forsett, $3,000 VS NE – Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson cost $19,900 combined this week, which makes a lineup construction with both of them tough to pull off. Justin case you want to Forsett in, I’ve got just the flex player to make it work!
(The heart wants what the heart wants, okay. Mine wants wordplay.)
The writing is on the wall that Booker is not long for the Broncos lead back role. After being under 3.4 YPC every game since Week 7, Booker ceded lead back duties to Forsett in his first game as a Bronco. This week, Forsett’s receiving chops will play nicely against a Patriots team allowing the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs.
Playing Forsett at the minimum salary a week before we see him fully take the lead role and thrive is the sort of “be a week early” play that can win you a tournament OR lose all your cash games. Deploy him accordingly.
Kenneth Farrow, $4,400 VS OAK – As Sir Mix-a-Lot described it, San Diego usage will face an Oakland matchup.
Farrow played on 55 of 57 snaps after Gordon went down in Week 14, handling all 22 running back touches in the process. This week, there’s slight cause for concern, as Ronnie Hillman will certainly be activated. That said, when every carry is against the team allowing the second-most yards per carry to running backs, 80% of the touches will be just fine.
Also, hopefully you picked him up in your season-long league, as another big matchup awaits in Week 16. I know I did, and after the waivers cleared, I obviously yelled …
QUARTERBACK
With the limit change, we’re looking at almost a perfect split, 15 above the line and 17 below. I’m calling the new $6,000-or-less price limit a success.
YADA, YADA
Alex Smith, $5,400 VS TEN – Time to take this matchup out for a spin! We saw it make pedestrian Trevor Siemian the number one point-per-$1K QB; what can just-average Alex Smith do with it?
Just to quantify a bit, the fewest passing yards against them since Week 5 is 262. The who’s who of “Who’s He?” has roasted them. Brock Osweiler – 254-and-2. Cody Kessler – 336-and-2. Blake Bortles – 337-and-3. Matt Barkley – 316-and-3. And, of course, Trevor Siemian – 334-and-1. Now it’s time for Alex Smith, who hasn’t had a 300-yard or 3-score game since Week 1, to eat the statistical mushroom and have his numbers grow big. Or maybe it’s a fire flower? Star? Ah.. d) All of the Above.
GANG GROUT
Tyrod Taylor, $5,700 VS CLE – To be clear. If you had a running back averaging 36 yards rushing per game with a rushing TD every other game, you’d strongly consider him against the Browns. You’d figure that with them allowing the second most rush yards per game to running backs, he’d get close to 60 or 70 yards, a score, and you’d go from there.
With Tyrod, you do get that 36 yards + half-a-score running back. With it though, comes all the passing. He’s got Sammy Watkins back, healthy-ish, having just caught his first score of the year, Robert Woods healthy and out in formation, and those checkdowns to Shady McCoy are the back-breaker. In addition to the inept rush defense, Cleveland allows the most passing scores. Whatever the opposite of “damned” is, Tyrod is that if he does pass and that if he doesn’t.
Man, it’s nice to have The Rod back in the Grout.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
I’ve run really bad here. Of the 12 players I discussed last week, I chose the second worst for my Grout for a Shout. Even then, if an 18-yard reception hadn’t been taken away thanks to a penalty, I would have bested JM. As it is, everything in this section seems to go wrong. Which means …
So, against my better judgement, I’m taking a running back. Justin Forsett.