The Fantasy Grout, Week 8 - Helpful

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2016-10-31 15:57:28

This year, for Halloween, I’m going as “helpful”.

Yup. No intro. Scaling back the jokes. Leaving no meat on the bone when it comes to supporting evidence. Also, I’m doing a positional overview, before diving into individual players at each position. If you like this, let me know in the comments. Maybe I’ll turn over a new leaf!

Then again, as most Halloween costumes go, you start the night thinking “I could be Naughty Captain America every day,” and by the end of the night, you’ve lost the shield, the star on your chest has a beer stain, and you know there’s a hangover assembling, ready to avenge your night of fun.

Previously On The Fantasy Grout

I recommended a couple Thursday players, stressed using caution with another, and was completely wrong about the game. I would say, though, that I caught a few bad breaks. Also, I published the article less than an hour before Thursday kickoff, which was probably the only helpful thing I did for Thursday players. As such, Thursday games are now officially off limits.

So, this is me not mentioning that I like Delanie Walker and Marqise Lee this week. I especially am not going to mention how cheap Lee is on FanDuel.

The Fantasy Grout

I’ll still be sticking to the pricing confines listed below, but it would be silly to ignore that more expensive players exist, so I’ll be working them into the larger positional review. Now, Trick or Grout!

$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End

DEFENSE

Defense? Yeah. I’m all in on this “Be helpful” thing. Let’s start with a couple quick lists. We know that sacks are the magic beans that grow stalks and stalks of scoring stats. Here are the teams with the most sacks per game and the teams with the most sacks allowed per game.

Now, if we play the match game, we’ll see the sixth in sacks Titans facing the seventh in sacks-allowed Jaguars, on the Thursday schedule.

Beyond that, you’ll find that the Cardinals, who get nearly three sacks per game, are up against the Panthers, who have given up two-and-a-half per tilt. A defense against Cam Newton nearly guarantees low ownership, but in the Panthers diminished state and at a price of $2,700 (only nine cheaper on the main slate), it’s worth a shot.

Now, I will say that playing defenses that are road underdogs isn’t a way to get rich, typically. That does concern me. Having only four games with a higher total than this one is much less concerning. A couple things to remember with defensive scoring:

1) The difference in fantasy points for the range of 14 to 34 defensive points allowed is two.
2) DraftKings uses “Yahoo-Scoring” as opposed to “ESPN-Scoring,” which means if the quarterback of your defense’s team throws a Pick-6, only the extra point counts against you.
3) You want to accrue points that they can’t take away (sacks, turnovers, scores), so you want your defense on the field. If a decent offensive opponent is required to do that, so be it.

Sacks aren’t the only stat you can use when selecting your defense. For instance, the Vikings, in addition to being 3rd in sacks per game, are first in DraftKings points per game this season. They face Jay Cutler this week, whose Madden DGAF Rating is a perfect 100. Round peg, round hole. Another example of an out-of-the-box stat you can use is that Kevin Hogan is Cleveland’s sixth player to throw a pass this year. That is, he’s the starter’s back-up’s back-up’s back-up’s back-up’s back-up. The Jets DST has to be in play as well, despite their poor play this year.

TIGHT END

I’ve got beef with the tight end position, for a bunch of reasons. First off, by its very nature, the tight end position is designed to trick us. Tight ends intentionally line up with the lineman, as a form of camouflage, but like a high schooler with a hall pass, they have special permission to go out and do their own thing. While teams like the Patriots are optimizing the trickiness of the position in order to fool defenses, it makes it harder on us too, as fantasy owners. Then, when you layer in the injuries they get while being lineman, but that hurt their ability to be receivers, it adds an extra tier of production volatility.

The bad news is that as of today, “TE” is still one of the positions on the roster. The good news is that a select group of tight ends are responsible a huge portion of the “big games” this year, as well see below. The production of those players, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, and Jimmy Graham, is in parenthesis in the Tight End Production chart below.

In addition to opening your eyes about how putrid tight end scoring has been, you can see how the top five tight ends (PPG this season) represent 16% of tight end scores, 80% of 100-yard bonuses, 32% of 7-reception games, 43% of 20-point games and 100% of 30-point games. That is in spite of the fact that Gronkowski missed two games, “missed” two more, and Reed has missed two games. When you see those five have eight 100-yard bonuses and six 7-reception games, note that they’ve played 27 (non-decoyed) games total.

It’s also worth noting that you can quibble about who the Top 5 really are. Bennett’s production thrived without Gronkenstein “alive,” and now, his production is sagging. Delanie Walker has put up some duds, which has hurt his PPG, but he does have 3 of 69 scores, 1 of 17 7-reception games, and 2 of 21 20-point games. You can make similar arguments for Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta, from a volume standpoint.

And now, we get to the fork in the road. I will continue to discuss only tight ends $4,000-or-less. You can acknowledge the inherent volatility in the position, choose to subject as few salary dollars as possible to that volatility, and come with me, or you can take the high road, where the bulk of the production exists. Either way, I wish you the best of luck.

YADA, YADA

Antonio Gates, $2,700 AT DEN – Candidly, I’m going to have a tough time pulling the trigger on a tight end playing in the division, on the road, at Denver. I’m including him here to note a couple things for you. In their game versus Denver two weeks ago, Gates and Henry combined for 8-for-99 and a score, with Henry representing the bulk of that total (6-83-1). It’s because of that, Henry is $3,700 while Gates is only $2,700.

Yet over the last three weeks since Gates has returned, his production has ramped up. It hasn’t been at the expense of Henry’s snaps, but Gates has received more targets in two of those three weeks. Here with snaps and targets in Weeks 5-7:

Hunter Henry – 42/4, 45/8, 47/3
Antonio Gates – 18/5, 31/6, 38/10

Ultimately, it’s hard to play Gates as I mentioned above. If you’re trying to save salary though, and you look to the least productive position to do so, Gates is as low as I’ll go this week at tight end.

Kyle Rudolph, $3,500 AT CHI – Remember when 6’ 6” Rudolph was just a red zone threat? With Bradford under center, they’ve found quite the connection between the 20s, the same as outside of them. Rudolph has 7+ targets in 6 of 7 games, despite facing fairly stiff competition when it comes to DvP at TE. Also, only Martellus Bennett and Jack Doyle have more scores per game at the position.

Rudolph led all tight ends in routes run last week and is fourth among all tight ends this season in targets per game. If you’re leery of that “Red 9th,” regarding his match-up, disregard it. The Bears are yet to face any of the Big 5 listed above, or even Walker, Kelce or Pitta. I’m not saying they are a great match-up for Rudolph but rather that we don’t have real evidence to show they are a bad match-up.

Oh, and 6’ 6” is still tall.

GANG GROUT

Gary Barnidge, $3,300 VS NYJ – Full Disclosure: I think Rudolph and Barnidge are really close this week. In fact, a report that Terrelle Pryor is “showing no signs of limitations” from his hamstring injury might be enough to tip the scales. Pryor played only 48% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week, and correspondingly, Barnidge got 23% of targets, leading the team by a wide margin. Pryor was limited in practice Wednesday.

Even with Pryor, Barnidge has had a sizable role in the (limited) Browns pass attack. Since Week 1, he’s averaged 6.3 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 60.2 yards, with very little variation from week to week. The reason he’s so cheap is that he hasn’t found the end zone yet, something I find very surprising given coach Hue Jackson’s Tyler Eifert red zone usage last season. Positive regression coming.

Also as I mentioned last week with Dennis Pitta, the Jets have ceded high volume games to Charles Clay (5-27), Travis Kelce (6-89-1), Jimmy Graham (6-113), and Jesse James (6-43-1). Pitta was held to 4-40 last week.

The last piece is that Josh McCown likely will take snaps Sunday. I’m not going to give you “Barnidge with McCown” stats, mainly because I don’t believe in them that much. Just know that before McCown entered the picture, he was “ Gary Barnidge “ and afterward, he was “Gary Barnkowski.”

WIDE RECEIVER

At wide receiver, the five most expensive guys all have very cushy match-ups and are likely to suck up a lot of the ownership at the position:

Julio Jones v GB
A.J. Green v WAS (if Norman has a setback)
Mike Evans v OAK
T.Y. Hilton v KC
Brandon Marshall at CLE

When you combine those expensive pass catchers with some of the value that’s opened up at running back, the chalk construction is likely have salary dollars tilted toward the wide receiver position. Still, if you’re playing four of them (you should be), you still will likely have to spring for at least one Grout WR.

Let’s take a peek at some of the situations we are looking to target with our wide receivers, and see what cheap guys could benefit from those situations.

YADA, YADA

Oakland – Most YPG to WRs, 7 100-yard games allowed to WRs, 8th Most Rec/Game to WRs;

Now, I keep getting told how good the Oakland cornerbacks are playing, mainly by the Pro Football Focus disciples, but I’m having a tough time squaring it with the numbers above. As always, @ScottBarrettDFB has got my back.

Russell Shepard, $3,300 & Adam Humphries, $3,000 VS OAK – It was Shepard, not Adam Humphries, that stepped up his production last week, as he stepped in on the outside for IRed Vincent Jackson. Shepard had 5-77-1 on 6 targets while Humphries managed only 2-17-3. That said, with the weakness of the Raiders being more of the middle of the field, I’m more inclined to deploy Humphries, if I choose the tenuous ‘Non-Mike Evans path. A path, I should add, that is littered with sadness.

Carolina – Most WR YPG over the last 5 weeks; 18+ DK PTs to 4 WR over last 3 games; Allowed a 50-Burger;

They are getting slot cornerback Robert McClain, and signs point to them getting James Bradberry back as well. They are still banged up on their defensive line though, and … did I mention the 50-burger?

John Brown, $4,700, Michael Floyd, $4,100,& JJ Nelson, $3,000 AT CAR – The nice part about using this receiving corps is that it is finally thinning out a bit. Jaron Brown mercifully hit the IR, which means all “J. Brown” mis-clicks end after this week. John Brown was discovered to have a Sickle Cell issue, which cost him last week and puts his availability in question this week. That leaves Larry Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Nelson. I want Nelson.

Floyd has seen very inconsistent snaps this year, and I’m speculating there’s something there beyond football. Nelson was second on the team last week in snaps last week, lead the team in yards, and was tied with Floyd for 2nd in non-David Johnson targets. If nothing else, given how tough wide receiver usage has been to predict in Arizona, you would have to put Nelson on par with Floyd. At that point, his $1,100 price discount would be the tie-breaker.

Chicago – Most Yards allowed to WRs, Most Receptions allowed to WRs, 6th most TDs allowed to WRs; That’s it Yards, Receptions, and TDs. There are no more counting stats!

Adam Thielen, $3,800 & Cordarrelle Patterson, $3,300 AT CHI – Stefon Diggs is a fine play as well, albeit outside of our price range. With Patterson scoring each of the last two weeks, with his cheaper price tag, and with his high pedigree, you’d think that’s where I’d go here. Yet, I’m leaning toward Thielen.

Thielen has outsnapped Patterson in each of their last two games, leading by 39 snaps in that span. Thielen even played more than Diggs last week, 67 snaps to 61. While Patterson led the WR corps in every production category last week (7-67-1 on 7), the total over their last two games is closer: Thielen – 9-179-1 on 13. Patterson – 11-106-2 on 13.

Further supporting Thielen over Patterson is the fact that Patterson didn’t practice today (Thursday). I haven’t seen any indication he won’t play, but I could see his effectiveness limited. Ultimately, this Vikings picture is a little blurry for me yet, but given the match-up, I will continue squinting to see if I can make out a solid, Grout play.

GANG GROUT

Davante Adams, $4,900 AT ATL – Never has a play felt more “chase-y” than recommending Adams after his 16 target, 13-132-2 outburst versus the Bears last Thursday. I get that.

The truth is that his usage has been fairly consistent this year. He only had two targets in Green Bay’s Week 2 game against Detroit, which featured a short-field laden, first half drubbing followed by the most conservative, hang-on-for-dear-life second half I have ever seen. Even then, he scored on one of them. He has 7+ targets in 4/6 games and has five scores on the year.

There are two things I like about Adams this week, both covered in this Rodgers quote:

“This is how we’re going to have to play for a little bit until we get Knile up to speed and Don (Jackson) up to speed. I thought (Montgomery) played great tonight, made a lot of plays. The short passing game was like an extension of the run game in games like tonight when you’re going with a lot of four-receiver packages with Ty back there (at running back).”

The first is that they are going to have to keep throwing. Coach Mike McCarthy echoed that sentiment saying “You play the way you have to play.” That dink-and-dunk, death-by-a-thousand-cuts, low aDot offense is fertile ground for wide receivers in DraftKings point-per-reception scoring system.

Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Randall Cobb is not expected to play in Week 8.

The second thing I like about the Adams play is that Ty Montgomery is $400 more and will likely draw gobs of ownership, yet you can’t catch the ball from on the bench. Montgomery has clearly been behind Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams in actual receiver snaps. When Montgomery gets competition for running back snaps from actual running backs, in addition a little from Randall Cobb, he is very likely to see a letdown this week against Atlanta.

Lastly, on the carpet in Atlanta, with the highest over/under for the week, you can pick the second-best option and still succeed. That’s the nice thing about playing guys in a prospective shoot-out, there’s margin for error.

Marqise Lee, $3,300 AT TEN – Oh, that’s right. It’s been 3,000 words since I wrote that. Anyway, if I was allowed to recommend Thursday plays…

Robby Anderson, $3,000 AT CLE – I know that Adam Levitan takes a lot of pride in being an athletic guy, despite a smaller stature. Still, I would fear for his health if he ever met the Browns secondary in a dark alley, as he has been saying some very disparaging things about their skill level. Then again, if they are as bad as he says they are, he’d probably land some good shots, as they can’t even cover themselves!

Most of those comments have referred streaming quarterbacks against them, which has been a very, very viable strategy this year. I took a similar tact last week, skipping the foreplay and recommending Dalton on the match-up alone. It worked out.

As you might assume, receivers the same as their battery mates have thrived against Cleveland. They’ve allowed 9 games of 15-or-more points to wide receivers in seven games, leading to the seventh most WR receiving yards and third most WR scores.

Anderson been a mainstay on the field for the Jets since Eric Decker went out, outsnapping Quincy Enunwa consistently. Their snap percentages the last three weeks:

Week 7: Marshall – 96%, Anderson – 74%, Enunwa – 65%
Week 6: Marshall – 98%, Anderson – 100%, Enunwa – 93%
Week 5: Marshall – 97%, Anderson – 90%, Enunwa – 84%

Real Talk – Anderson has done very little with that playing time. Eight receptions for 75 yards. As such, this is, in no way, a safe play. That said, when a team starts trying to manufacture touches for a guy, it lets me know they like what they’re seeing in practice. Anderson’s 30 yard carry last week was just such an indicator. I plan to make some one-off line-ups this week on a couple slates, and Anderson will be a part of the 1 PM bunch.

RUNNING BACK

I’m not going to beat around the bush here. There are four players who have had significant opportunity open up for them this week, and those are the four I’m going to breakdown.

Mike Gillislee, $3,800 VS NE
Devontae Booker, $3,700 VS SD
Matt Asiata, $3,500 AT CHI
Rob Kelley, $3,000 AGAINST CIN

Let’s just start with a chart laying out the vitals for each play.

For Booker, there is no question that C.J. Anderson is out. Meanwhile in descending level of certainty is LeSean McCoy’s hamstring, Jerick McKinnon’s ankle, and Matt Jones’ knee. Booker and Gillislee both seem to be talented guys who would could get a “workhorse” level work if the opportunity arises. Meanwhile, Asiata, who is a more lumbering back, probably have Ronnie Hillman slice into his work slightly more. Kelley, of the four, has the most workload split to face, as Chris Thompson ($3,700) could even see more work overall. That said, Coach Jay Gruden indicated Kelley would start and handle the early down work if Jones is inactive.

The truth is that I lumped all four of these guys in that they all just had play time open up thanks to injury. Devontae Booker is head-and-shoulders ahead of the other three though, in terms of talent, usage and match-up. He is a “free square” to use tout parlance. Play him. (Though The CamMer was a free square last week, and yet playing him left me feeling like square.)

Because we have another RB-slot, as well as a flex, it’s worth parsing through these other three guys. Gillislee is probably the most talented, but the match-up against New England is double-edged. On one side, you’ll know Buffalo will have to score points, so it’s very unlikely they’ll lay off the accelerator. On the other is that those situations lend themselves to passing. McCoy, in similar situations, has been heavily utilized in the pass game, but Gillislee in limited usage, does not even have a 3-reception game. You either believe he can’t do it or he just hasn’t shown it. I’m inclined to believe it’s in there somewhere.

For Asiata, I expect him to be more of a late & primetime slate guy. He’s very touchdown dependent. In all non-Adrian Peterson situations, the Vikings have split running back work and Ronnie Hillman is likely up-up-to-speed in that offense by now. We could hear word that 1) McKinnon will be out and 2) Asiata will handle the bulk of the work, at which point he’s a fine play. In absence of those two pieces of news he falls behind the other two and probably all three.

As to Kelley, I think you might want Thompson more anyway. Thompson’s work is more valuable in DraftKings’ PPR scoring system. Also, as underdogs, the game script is more likely to tip toward Thompson’s skill-set. Lastly, last week Thompson handled more offensive snaps (43), had more touches (19), and had more total yards (113) than Jones and Kelley combined (32, 15, 43). I don’t think I’ll play Kelley this week, despite him starting and being cheaper than Thompson. I’m still slightly up-in-the-air about Thompson, if Jones can’t play.

QUARTERBACK

DraftKings quarterback prices have continually sagged this year, culminating last week with only six priced over $6,500. This week, it’s rebounded slightly, to seven, but that’s still a miniscule number compared to the 18 Week 1 signal callers over $6,500.

I’m speculating, but I would guess that’s due to quarterback ownership routinely being more evenly spread than the rest of positions. Frankly, that spread makes sense, as no position is has more guaranteed “usage,” independent of price.

That said, the top three scoring quarterbacks were non-Grout last week, three of the top four the week before that, the top three the week before that, the top four the week before that, etc. That is, you can play your value QBs (well, our value QBs). I’m playing Andrew Luck.

The places people normally go to get their cheap quarterbacks, versus the Lions, the Browns, and the Jets, are occupied by Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Josh McCown. Good luck with that. I’m not saying that they can succeed. The match-ups really are plush. I’m just saying the range of outcomes spans some pretty low numbers. I think I’ll stay away.

YADA, YADA

Kirk Cousins, $6,300 AGAINST CIN – Football is inherently a small size endeavor. It’s not basketball or baseball, where we have enough games to have the cream rise and crap to s(t)ink. That’s why Blake Bortles can ride garbage time production to a Top 10 season, and we don’t bat an eye. Surely, you’ll need to be productive during the first half in the long run, but over a sixteen-game sample, nope.

That said, yardage is much more indicative of long-term success than touchdowns. Even though I see eleven quarterbacks with higher points-per-game on this slate alone, I am much more prone to rely on his seventh highest pass yards per game total (285). It’s certainly possible he might not “rise to the top” in the short-term, but I’m going to bet on it anyway.

And if any week, why not this one. He’s likely getting his primary pass catcher back, in Jordan Reed. Also, if I’m correct that Chris Thompson is going to take a more primary role, that is another strong pass catching threat on the field. The Bengals have a middle of the road pass defense, though their DvP numbers against quarterbacks are hurt by two rush TDs allowed. With Matt Jones likely out, I could see Cousins padding that total. GPP exposure to Cousins? Yeah, I like that.

GANG GROUT

Jameis Winston, $5,700 VS OAK – The nice part about playing the quarterback against Oakland is that you don’t have to decipher if the pass defense is bad or good, or the slot is bad, or it’s the linebackers, or whatever. It all counts.

Winston is one of those 11 QBs with more PPG than Cousins, and he has a better match-up this week as well. The Raiders have been improved lately, but still have ceded the most pass yards, the seventh most pass scores, and a rush TD to boot. Sprinkle in a home field advantage, an out-of-conference game, and a near 50-point over/under, and you can hardly find a better situation.

Looking at Winston’s weapons, losing Vincent Jackson is the clearest case of “addition by subtraction” since math teachers starting teaching what happens when you subtract a negative number. Russell Shepard showed that already in his first post VJax action.

Not only do I think Winston has a high floor, but I could easily see him beating out the expensive crew and making the “Optimal line-up” on Monday.

One last observation. After Jay Cutler flushed out of the league at the end of this season, can we bequeath the “Smokin” moniker to Winston? “Smokin’ J Winston” has all sort potential.

MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT

After my CamMer disaster last week, I’ve just got to get my overall PT/$K back over 3.

Booker. Book it.