10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for September 4th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, September 3rd.
1. Yu Darvish has faced the Houston Astros 11 times in his MLB career. He’s struck out at least seven Astros in 10 of those games. The other game? He struck out six. He’s also limited the runs against Houston, allowing 0, 1, or 2 earned runs in seven of those 11 games. Against the 2016 version of the Astros offense, which strikes out at a 23.8% clip against right-handed pitching (third-highest in MLB), Darvish has racked up 16 Ks in 12 innings. He’s got the highest upside of any pitcher taking the hill on Sunday.
2. Despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Jon Gray has four home games of 8+ strikeouts and fewer than three earned runs this season. That’s the same number of such games as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester, and Corey Kluber, all of whom (obviously) have much more favorable home parks. It isn’t like Gray has been a complete shutdown pitcher at home (he’s also allowed four or more earned runs in five of 12 home starts this year), but he’s been good enough that you’ll want to pick your spots with Diamondbacks rather than go all-in.
3. One of those spots might be Jake Lamb, who has a .412 ISO at Coors Field this season. His numbers have been down lately, but a lot of it can be attributed to bad luck – over the past 30 days, he has a 43.1% hard hit rate (16th-highest in MLB) and just a .213 BABIP (tied for ninth-lowest in MLB). Gray has been vulnerable to lefties this year (36.6% hard hit rate against LHB this year), making Lamb a viable option in both cash and tournaments.
4. The Milwaukee Brewers are currently riding an 11-game streak of striking out at least eight times. No other team has a current streak of more than four games. Steven Brault is never a pitcher you’ll feel comfortable rostering, but his price (particularly at DraftKings) coupled with the Brewers massive strikeout tendencies means he’s in play as a salary saver.
5. Over the past 30 days, Danny Salazar has a 22.6% hard hit rate and a .433 BABIP. That hard hit rate would be fifth-lowest in MLB over that span if he had the innings to qualify. And the BABIP? It would be highest in MLB. In other words, like Lamb, Salazar has been the victim of some misfortune, as hitters aren’t squaring him up, yet everything is falling for a hit. This trend is sure to regress soon, and it may have started in his last start, when he held the Rangers to two earned runs on five hits in an extreme hitter’s park (Globe Life Park in Arlington). Sunday’s matchup against the Marlins seems to be a get-right spot for Salazar, because…
6. The last time any starting pitcher allowed more than three earned runs to the Marlins was August 15th, when Brandon Finnegan allowed four. Every one of those starters went at least five innings, and this list includes guys like Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, Rafael Montero, Jarred Cosart, Edinson Volquez, Dillon Gee, Ryan Vogelsong, and Chad Kuhl. The Marlins are the best matchup in baseball right now.
7. Carlos Martinez has faced 292 right-handed batters in 2016 and allowed home runs to two of them. In the past five years (dating back to 2012), Martinez is one of three pitchers with 76+ innings pitched to either handedness of hitter to allow two or fewer home runs (the others are Aaron Sanchez vs. RHB in 2016 and Bud Norris vs. RHB in 2013). The Reds rank in the bottom six in MLB in wOBA (.308, ranked 25th) and wRC+ (87, tied for 26th) against RHP. If Martinez can keep the ball from leaving the yard (no small feat in Great American Small Park), he’ll have a good afternoon. Still, it’s impossible to feel totally comfortable rolling out Martinez in cash games, mainly because…
8. Joey Votto has an MLB-leading .424 batting average since the All-Star break. That’s higher than the slugging percentages of Victor Martinez, George Springer, Chris Davis, Miguel Sano, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. If you want to play the game theory angle, Votto makes for an excellent tournament play. Martinez’s likely high ownership will suppress Votto’s ownership, and if Votto does hit one out (reasonably likely given a.) he’s a lefty, and b.) it’s the best home run park in baseball), you’ll get the added benefit of costing Martinez’s owners points.
9. Marcus Semien has 10 home runs against lefties. The last time a SS had 10 home runs against LHP was Troy Tulowitzki (with 10) in 2009. On Sunday, he’s likely to bat leadoff against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has pitched better as of late, but has allowed home runs in 10 of 14 starts in 2016.
10. Daniel Murphy has homered in six consecutive games against the Mets this year, including two the last time he faced them, back on June 29th. Nobody has ever homered in six consecutive games against the Mets (although Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard, and Hank Aaron have all done it in five straight games). You can argue about whether or not revenge games are real, but for Daniel Murphy real. On Sunday, he’ll take on Seth Lugo, who’s held lefties to a .259 wOBA in his brief stint in MLB. Even so, Murphy makes for an elite play if you’re playing a slate that includes Sunday Night Baseball.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Saturdays and Sundays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!