2017 MLB DFS Preview – American League East
Hello RotoGrinders. Welcome to the AL East article to help you get prepared for MLB DFS Opening Day, which is just around the corner.
The goal of these articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I will be focused on highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. With that said, let’s dive in:
Boston Red Sox – 2016 Record: 93-69
For the first time since 2003, the Red Sox will not have the towering presence of David Ortiz at the middle of their lineup. Instead, they will have the presence of…Mitch Moreland. Obviously, that’s a huge downgrade (No offense Mitch. Seriously, you provide no offense). Ortiz was the heart and soul of this team last year, batting .315 with 38 home runs, 127 RBIs, and 48 doubles. Simply put, he’s irreplaceable.
Mitch Moreland signed a one-year deal this offseason to man first base. He did hit 22 home runs in 2016, but he only batted .233. He makes for a decent stop-gap until the Red Sox can find a long-term solution to replace Ortiz.
One big philosophy change to monitor is the Red Sox on the basepaths. With Ortiz gone, the Red Sox will have to generate runs outside of the longball and they’ve already stated they will be more focused on stealing bases. Xander Bogaerts was 13/17 in stolen base attempts last year but is aiming to reach 20 steals this year. It would not shock me to see him reach the exclusive 20/20 club in 2017.
Travis Shaw was shipped off to Milwaukee in December, leaving Pablo Sandoval as the starting third baseman. I’m in the Bay Area and I’ve had the pleasure of watching Sandoval for several years as a Giant. I don’t care what his weight is – if he’s motivated he can hit. The only downside is he’s rarely motivated and is coming off shoulder surgery. His reported weight is in the 240s and has no competition behind him with Shaw and Yoan Moncada gone, so unless Brock Holt takes his job we should see a lot of Sandoval this season.
Speaking on Moncada, he was part of the trade that sent four prospects to the White Sox in exchange for Chris Sale. Sale had a dominant 2016 season (17-10 record, 233 Ks in 226.2 innings) and will assume the role of the ace. The Sale trade was much needed because David Price ended up getting hurt in spring training. Price won’t need surgery and has full range of motion in his pitching elbow, but it’s highly likely Price will start the year on the DL. If that’s the case, I’d expect Eduardo Rodriguez to slide into the rotation as the 5th starter.
Baltimore Orioles – 2016 Record: 89-73
The Orioles shocked the baseball world last year by making the playoffs in the one-game wildcard showdown against the Blue Jays. They then further shocked the world by never using their best pitcher in Zach Britton and ultimately losing the game.
The Orioles are going to be a hard team to figure out. On paper, I see a team with a powerful offense that can win them games. They led the majors with 253 home runs last year. To put that into perspective, the next closest team was the Cardinals with 225 home runs. They were historically great and finished 5th on the list of home runs by a team in MLB history. They were paced by Mark Trumbo (47), Chris Davis (38), Manny Machado (37), Adam Jones (29), and Jonathan Schoop (25). The Orioles did lose Matt Wieters and his 17 home runs to the Nationals, but they brought in Beef Welington Castillo and his 14 home runs as a replacement.
In a saavy move, the Orioles traded Yovani Gallardo for Seth Smith. Smith is a career .272 hitter against right handers and makes for a nice platoon mate with Joey Rickard or Michael Bourn.
Now here’s where things get messy. The Orioles starting rotation has some shiny new toys in Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. Gausman finally put together a solid season where he struck out 174 batters in 179.2 innings with a 9-12 record. Bundy was solid in the strikeout department (104 Ks in 109.2 innings), but struggled with the long-ball by giving up 18 home runs. Chris Tillman played the role of staff ace and finished with a 16-6 record. But after these three arms, you’re left with Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley Cyrus. That’s a recipe for disaster.
From a DFS perspective, the Orioles offense is as sexy as it gets, but the pitching staff is meh. I envision plenty of Orioles stacks in my near future, but that may be as far as I go with this team. Zach Britton and company will do a fine job closing out the games where they have a lead, but you can only rely on your offense so much.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2016 Record: 89-73
The Blue Jays were probably the one team you stacked over and over again last year, hoping for a huge payout and was left disappointed more often than not.
When looking at their 2017 roster, I almost get the sense that we will continue stacking them out of habit, only to realize a month into the season that these aren’t the same Blue Jays as 2016.
There’s a good chance the Blue Jays make the playoffs again in 2017, but what if I told you I think they make it on the backs of their starting pitchers and not their offense?
That’s right, I said it. I think the Blue Jays have reached a point where their pitching staff carries the team. On offense, the Blue Jays took a huge blow when Edwin Encarnacion took his 42 home runs and 127 RBIs to Cleveland this offseason. Encarnacion provided a level of protection for Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista that cannot be under-stated. Additionally, Michael Saunders bolted to the Phillies and was a big part of the offense last year.
The Blue Jays are going to fill in the void left by Encarnacion with Justin Smoak at first base. Smoak is a career .223 switch hitter and is equally bad from both sides (.224 versus righties, .223 versus lefties). Steve Pearce was brought in on a two-year deal and I’m fully expecting a platoon. Pearce has shown the ability to mash lefties in his career and I’d expect him to draw those starts.
Professional hitter Kendrys Morales was signed to a two-year deal to be the designated hitter (I have no idea what the term “professional hitter” means but I heard it once on ESPN and it makes me sound smart, so I’m going to use it). Morales slugged 30 home runs last year, the second highest total in his career. This was mainly driven by the fact that Morales was able to stay healthy and play 154 games.
The biggest question mark on offense will be the status of Devon Travis, who underwent knee surgery in November and hasn’t participated in live games yet. Should Travis start the year on the DL, we’ll see a mix of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney covering for him.
Getting to starting rotation, the Blue Jays are solid from top to bottom. Aaron Sanchez (the pitcher, not the chef) came out of nowhere to go 15-2, make the All-Star game, and win the ERA title at 3.00. Sanchez did pitch 192 innings in the regular season and 11.2 in the post season, so it’s worth monitoring if the 200+ inning workload has any effect on his 2017 performance.
New York Yankees – 2016 Record: 84-78
The Yankees are an odd case where addition by subtraction actually applies (I know, mathematically it makes no sense). The Yankees shed the dead-weight of 41 year-old steroid user Alex Rodriguez and 36 year-old Mark Teixeira. 39-year old Carlos Beltran was shipped off late last year for prospects. In my opinion, this should be an opportunity to get young and start the youth movement. Rather than get younger, the Yankees brought in 37-year old Matt Holliday to be their DH.
It’s already been confirmed Greg Bird will be the starting first baseman. The Yankees did sign Chris Carter to a one-year deal for only $3.5 million dollars. Carter smoked 41 home runs last year and should see time at first base against lefties. Honestly, why not just play him every day at DH instead of Matt Holliday? I don’t get it.
The GOAT Gary Sanchez will have a chance to prove his 2016 season was no fluke. Sanchez hit 20 home runs in only 53 games with an OPS of 1.032. There was a stretch last year where he GOATed day after day, teasing you to play him in DFS regardless of his price.
Another move that made no sense to me was the five-year deal to bring back Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees already had stud Dellin Betances and Tyler Clippard, both of whom could easily close games. Why not use that $86 million dollars on starting pitchers so you don’t have to give the ball to C.C. Sabathia every fifth day? Even one of their best pitchers, Michael Pineda, was nicknamed the “Big Tease” in a recent New York Post article. This is not because Pineda likes to flirt in the clubs (although I’ll admit I cannot confirm or deny whether this is the case), but it’s due to the fact he can’t consistently put away batters. Despite striking out 207 batters in only 175.2 innings, he had an ERA of 4.82. In nearly 1/3 of his starts, he gave up 5 or more runs. I remember starting him in DFS last year, seeing him dominate for several innings, and then I’d go eat dinner. When I came back from my meal he had struck out 8 guys but gave up a boatload of runs and there would be a giant snowflake next to his name.
There is a talent here and some usefulness for DFS purposes, but the Yankees aren’t a team I’m in love with.
Tampa Bay Rays – 2016 Record: 68-94
The Tampa Bay Rays are polar opposites from the Yankees. They are in the middle of a youth movement and embracing their young talent. They did bring in Wilson Ramos and Colby Rasmus to round out their starting lineup. Ramos signed a two-year deal and is recovering from an ACL tear, but is expecting to be back around June or July, and catching around August. He will likely be eased back slowly and could see time as the DH to help him mend. In the meantime, Derek Norris was signed and should be the starting catcher.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I loved the one-year deal by the Rays for Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is never going to hit for average (he hit .206 last year), but he did slug 15 home runs. Rasmus hurt his hip in the spring and is expected to start the year on the DL, but it doesn’t sound like a concerning injury.
The Rays had stud Drew Smyly but traded him this offseason for Mallex Smith and two prospect pitchers. I have no idea how the Rays plan to use him but he stole 88 bases in the minors. I assume they feel Smith needs a little more grooming and will be ready to take over for Rasmus by next year.
If things start to fall right for the Rays, this could be a sneaky team to stack in GPPs. Brad Miller quietly hit a career high 30 home runs in 2016. Matt Duffy battled injuries last year but did have a 12 homer /12 steal season for the Giants in 2015. If he can stay healthy and rebound from his Achilles surgery, another double-digit home run and steal season isn’t crazy. Kevin Kiermaier stole a career high 21 bases in only 105 games and seems like the best bet to act as the team’s lead-off hitter.
My two favorite plays in DFS on this team are Steven Souza and Corey Dickerson. Souza blasted 17 home runs in only 120 games. Strikeouts are a problem (159) so he’ll need to show better contact rates if he wants to keep his job. Dickerson’s 24 home runs were impressive in that it tied his season high from 2014 when he played in Coors. The power is real, and it’s spectacular.
The Rays have a solid starting rotation that is appealing for DFS in that there are strikeouts to be had. Chris Archer struck out 233 batters in 201.1 innings and is already in mid-season form, as he threw four perfect innings in the World Baseball Classic against Colombia. Alex Cobb is working his back from Tommy John Surgery and was rusty in his five starts last year, but after another offseason to recover there’s a good chance he rebounds to his 2013-2014 ways.
The gem on the Rays staff is some pitcher named Blake Snell (I think he’s the guy dating Gwen Stefani). Snell struck out 98 batters in only 89 innings, but had a WHIP of 1.62. If he can limit his walks, he’s going to win someone a GPP.
Thanks for reading.