Advanced Stats - Pitching: Opening Day
If the introduction is always the most difficult part of an article to write, then the introduction to the first article of the season may be the most difficult thing to write all year. Welcome to the largest Advanced Stats Pitching article of the season. What can I say, other than I’m thrilled to be back for my…well, I’m not even sure how many seasons I’ve been doing this now, but it’s still something I greatly look forward to most days.
For those unfamiliar with what this is, we attempt to use advanced stats to analyze each day’s starting pitchers. You won’t see a lot of talk about Wins and ERA here, but these are not metrics many people use anymore anyway. Most, if not all, daily fantasy players and casual fans know what K%, FIP, and even SIERA are by now. Staying ahead of or even keeping up with the curve can be a tedious process with all of the information readily available now, but we’ll attempt to do just that by adding in more Statcast this year (xwOBA, Effective Velocity) while removing some stuff that may have become redundant (xwOBA may make Hard% less necessary).
Important Note – We’re still dealing with some minor formatting issues which should be resolved in a day or two, but felt it was most important to get the information posted right now.
Before getting to the pitchers, just a reminder to use the stats and available news to make your own judgements. If you’re simply skimming through to see where a pitcher is arbitrarily placed in the humble opinions of this author without reading the actual write-ups and/or coming to your own conclusions regarding the research and stats, then you’re using this tool wrong. Even my own opinions can change throughout the day (which I’ll normally try to convey on twitter or in the RG alerts). This is probably even truer the first week or two of the season with the greatest lack of information. We have no stats yet! Readers may certainly be aware of things of which I am not at the time of writing. It’s a big league. Nobody can keep up with everything.
Often times, some very good pitchers may be left off the wish list due to cost or lack of upside in contrast to risk in a particular spot. If you’re playing 10 lineups on DraftKings though, it still may be worth some exposure to high risk arms who are going to fail much more often than they succeed. Circling back around, I find that most of my favored pitchers are off the main slate on Thursday, but you have to pick somebody (or even two somebodies). Just one GPP win can often pay for a full season of failure.
Stats will be from last season (or however labelled) for the first couple of days and then likely updated for the new season either Monday or Tuesday of next week. Columns containing L14 Days and L7 Days are filled simply for aesthetic purposes. Entire team totals need to be taken with a grain of salt at this point too, the length to which likely in correlation with the amount of turnover this off-season.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -0.6 | 3.48 | 5.9 | 52.0% | 0.99 | 3.92 | 3.06 | Braves | 90 | 89 | 90 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.8 | 3.91 | 6.4 | 53.8% | 0.92 | 3.60 | 4.37 | Mets | 96 | 101 | 90 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.42 | 5.3 | 37.5% | 0.91 | 4.11 | 2.95 | Padres | 90 | 85 | 59 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 3.2 | 3.48 | 6.0 | 45.2% | 0.92 | 2.99 | 3.94 | Red Sox | 91 | 90 | 75 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 3.6 | 3.00 | 6.9 | 40.2% | 0.92 | 2.48 | 2.09 | Rays | 100 | 90 | 103 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 4.2 | 2.72 | 6.7 | 48.6% | 0.90 | 2.79 | 3.69 | Giants | 81 | 81 | 106 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -4.1 | 4.16 | 6.1 | 60.8% | 0.91 | 3.54 | 3.18 | Brewers | 95 | 89 | 91 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.34 | 6.3 | 48.8% | 1.15 | 4.51 | 4.38 | Astros | 121 | 120 | 143 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.2 | 3.09 | 6.9 | 44.5% | 0.92 | 2.80 | 3.38 | Mariners | 110 | 105 | 124 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.5 | 3.87 | 6.2 | 37.8% | 1.04 | 4.15 | 5.71 | White Sox | 91 | 106 | 64 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -4.7 | 4.36 | 5.7 | 34.1% | 0.99 | 4.90 | 5.92 | Twins | 95 | 104 | 98 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.1 | 4.46 | 5.9 | 49.0% | 0.92 | 3.96 | 5.22 | Indians | 110 | 105 | 102 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 3.7 | 3.92 | 5.2 | 50.0% | 0.96 | 3.77 | 4.54 | Athletics | 114 | 106 | 89 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 4.8 | 4.83 | 4.8 | 44.7% | 1.01 | 5.07 | 5.44 | Nationals | 90 | 100 | 111 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.1 | 4.14 | 5.9 | 49.6% | 1.07 | 4.19 | 6.36 | Tigers | 110 | 91 | 50 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.19 | 6.0 | 44.3% | 1.04 | 4.01 | 2.87 | Yankees | 101 | 101 | 128 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.8 | 4.51 | 5.4 | 34.1% | 0.99 | 5.56 | 2.89 | Orioles | 105 | 95 | 25 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -0.1 | 5.05 | 5.5 | 39.6% | 1.04 | 5.13 | 4.50 | Royals | 91 | 92 | 78 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | -0.9 | 3.73 | 5.7 | 45.8% | 1.17 | 3.41 | 3.01 | Diamondbacks | 107 | 99 | 110 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 3.9 | 3.83 | 6.0 | 46.6% | 0.88 | 4.00 | 4.98 | Marlins | 100 | 92 | 121 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | -2 | 5.05 | 5.6 | 37.0% | 1.07 | 5.39 | 4.58 | Pirates | 80 | 85 | 93 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.6 | 5.02 | 5.4 | 44.7% | 0.88 | 5.43 | 5.93 | Cubs | 95 | 100 | 90 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | -0.4 | 4.40 | 6.1 | 39.6% | 0.99 | 5.15 | 5.16 | Phillies | 79 | 91 | 101 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | -3.7 | 3.69 | 6.5 | 33.9% | 1.15 | 3.70 | 2.68 | Rangers | 106 | 95 | 79 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | -7.7 | 4.63 | 5.8 | 51.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 | 4.63 | Angels | 86 | 98 | 87 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | -0.3 | 3.44 | 5.8 | 49.2% | 1.04 | 2.97 | 2.89 | Blue Jays | 92 | 90 | 89 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.7 | 2.94 | 6.6 | 34.8% | 1.01 | 3.19 | 2.71 | Reds | 100 | 99 | 90 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 1.1 | 2.89 | 5.8 | 52.4% | 0.92 | 1.76 | 4.18 | Cardinals | 97 | 99 | 71 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 4.24 | 5.7 | 52.0% | 1.17 | 3.76 | 5.80 | Rockies | 82 | 96 | 130 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | -1.8 | 5.28 | 6.2 | 47.5% | 0.90 | 5.07 | 6.55 | Dodgers | 111 | 109 | 133 |
NOTE – Washington @ Cincinnati has been cancelled.
Aaron Nola has a 3.48 SIERA over the last two calendar years. Go ahead and look at the table above and find which pitchers have a better SIERA and a higher ground ball rate. I count one and Syndergaard missed most of last season. Nola’s 7.0 Hard-Soft% over the last two years is also beaten only by maybe the two best pitchers on the planet (Kershaw and Kluber). He’s probably still one of the most under-valued pitchers in the league. Even though his estimators meet his ERA in the mid-threes last season, his 2.64 DRA is nearly a full run lower with his 31.4 Z-O-Swing% (a potential measure of deception), also among the elite last year. His .276 xwOBA, 23 points below his actual mark, also suggest he may be better than the surface numbers. The Braves might be an interesting team this year, but aside from Freddie Freeman, their most fearsome hitter is probably being kept down for service time concerns. They have not been a team that strikes out a lot, but still at a reasonable enough rate and that is countered by a lack of power that certainly allows quality pitchers to be strongly considered against them.
Chase Anderson added velocity last season, leading to more confidence to pitch up in the zone. This led to a career high 23.4 K% and 10.2 SwStr%. The dilemma is that the estimators still don’t love him due to an 80.6 LOB% and 8.6 HR/FB despite pitching in a power friendly park. Statcast does not think that his numbers were that far off with a .273 xwOBA just a few points off his actual mark, the result of a board low 84.4 mph aEV (26.8% of contact above 95+ mph was second best). The truth may lie somewhere between his 2.47 ERA and estimators mostly near a run and a half higher. San Diego is still a pitcher friendly park, but we might want to reconsider the Padre offense here. Improvement doesn’t just come in the form of the largest off-season free agent signing (Hosmer), but also with a strong crop of young players with another year under their belt.
Chris Sale takes his MLB leading 36.2 K% against a Tampa Bay offense that not only had a 25.9 K% against LHP, but sold off during the off-season. He faced the Rays five times last year and struck out at least eight each time and fewer than 12 only twice. He was removed from his last spring start after a comebacker hit him, but threw a bullpen on Monday and has been pronounced fit. There may be some concern about his pitch count since he left that last outing early on, but his 6.9 inning average over the last two calendar years is tied for the best on the board. You don’t see very many seven inning pitchers anymore (though most of them are on this board).
Clayton Kershaw was once again bothered by back issues last season, leading to just a 25.3 K%, his lowest since 2013. That was still the fourth best in baseball. While his ERA was quite a bit below estimators closer to three, his strong contact profile is generally able to support a lower BABIP (.270 career). Statcast supports a low wOBA as well. His 84.6 mph aEV and 26.5% 95+ mph EV are both top two marks on the board. He also did not allow a run this spring in 21.1 innings with 23 strikeouts. It’s a nice spot against the Giants, who have added a couple of solid RHBs in Longoria and McCutchen, but the tradeoff is that they may also increase San Francisco’s generally low strikeout rates.
Corey Kluber is coming off a legendary run in which he posted a 32.5 K-BB% and -0.8 Hard-Soft% in 166.1 IP from the beginning of June on, going at least seven innings in 17 of 23 starts. His ERA estimators support an ERA in the mid-twos, and although his BABIP was a bit low, he had the lowest Z-O-Swing (28.1%) on the board (more swings out of the zone and strikes taken). His xwOBA (.248) supports an incredibly low wOBA as well. He might have the best slidey and/or curvey pitch type thing in the game. The Mariners have a formidable, but aging offense and you have to like Kluber’s odds against just about any team in a pitcher friendly environment.
Jon Gray did not exactly shine in March (14 ER in 21.2 IP) on his way to the Opening Day assignment, but he did strike out 22 batters. While he had a strong year when he was healthy in 2017, his 24.3 K% appears with just an 8.8 SwStr% and 90.1 Z-Contact%, both concerns. However, there may be a bit more going on here. There is evidence that he pitched differently at home than on the road and in fact, his K% was 4.4% higher on the road with a much lower ground ball rate. Overall, he excelled at generating weak contact (.296 xwOBA, 85.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE). He’s in Arizona on Opening Day and while this has historically been considered one of the most hitter friendly parks outside Coors, we can theorize, but don’t know for sure what effect the dreaded humidor will have. What we can surmise is that it will dampen offense and pitchers are likely to be under-valued early in the season.
Jon Lester is your plug and play (unfortunately not on the main slate). The necessary information is that he’s pitching in Miami against the Marlins. Add in the fact that he’s left-handed and that may negate Miami’s top remaining threat (Justin Bour). There are certainly some concerns, coming off what might be the worst season of his career (consider that his 2012 with similar numbers was in the AL East). His fastball was slower with less spin and not well located. His ERA estimators were all around four, however, his xwOBA (.301) was 25 points below his actual one with an 85.4 mph aEV and 11.0 SwStr% (23.6 K%). The tank is not empty. Lewis Brinson may turn into a star, but this lineup is severely lacking and the park is very pitcher friendly.
Justin Verlander was an absolute beast for the Astros last season with a 31.7 K-BB% in five regular season starts and a 22.1 K-BB% in 36.2 more post-season innings. He seemed to have found his slider even before the trade. This spring, he’s struck out 24 in 22 innings, allowing just four runs (three home runs). The HRs are a concern (33.5 GB%) in a difficult park on Opening Day. The Rangers had 17.4 HR/FB at home and 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP last season, but they also had just a 95 wRC+ and 24.3 K% against RHPs. He could be taken deep a couple of times here and still return value. Joey Gallo may be good for both a HR and a few strikeouts.
Luis Severino joined the elites last season. His 22.9 K-BB% was fifth best in the majors, behind only the expected names (Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw). His .266 wOBA was supported by his xwOBA (.265) and that improved once he left Yankee Stadium (.243 xwOBA). He’s evolved as his changeup has and become one of those pitchers that really doesn’t need justification anymore. Simply look at the numbers presented here. The Blue Jays had just a 90 wRC+ against RHP last season and if you call Granderson and Grichuk upgrades, that’s where they’re at right now. Perhaps the biggest upgrade would be a healthy Donaldson, but this is no longer an offense to really be feared.
Noah Syndergaard is your early slate stud. After missing most of last season with a muscle tear and pledging to work out more efficiently (flexibility over strength), he’s returned to throw the damn baseball “even harder”: https://www.mlb.com/news/noah-syndergaards-high-velocity-spring-debut/c-267270034 this spring. His 2.89 SIERA over the last two calendar years sits behind only Kershaw. His career K-BB is five points higher at home (25.5% vs 20.5%). He’s also the rare pitcher to combine elite strikeouts with a ground ball rate above 50% and further great news is that the Mets infield defense should be improved this year with the Rosario/Frazier combination on the left side. The Cardinals have added Marcell Ozuna, but RHBs have just a career .259 wOBA and 26.5 K-BB% against Thor and this is still a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Patrick Corbin had either a bounce back or a bit of a breakout in 2017 depending on perspective. Over his last 20 starts, he had a 23.7 K% (51.3 GB%) and an ERA and FIP both below three and a half pitching in one of the worst pitching environments in baseball. He also held his hard hit rate below 30% over that stretch. For the season, his .314 xwOBA was 27 points below his actual one. Theoretically, as with Gray, the humidor should give him an additional bump. All the same caveats apply here. We don’t know, but we can make some educated assumptions. The Rockies have been a terrible road offense for years. Make this park less hitter friendly, remove the platoon advantage from their best hitter (Blackmon) and this is a sneaky strong spot against an offense that really didn’t make any upgrades. Hot take: Arenado is not much more than a league average hitter outside Coors.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Jake Odorizzi (.227 – 72.5% – 15.5) has excelled in the past by limiting HRs at home. A power suppressing ballpark, those results may have seemed sustainable for a while. Except last year they weren’t (17.6 HR/FB), but he remained a league average pitcher (by ERA) due to a completely unsustainable BABIP. Look at the BABIP chart below. His 43.7 Z-O-Swing% is the highest on the board (more swings at strikes, fewer at balls). More than 8% of his batted balls were classified as Barrels. Perhaps not well known is the fact that Minnesota slightly enhances RH power and he’s a fly ball pitcher with a significant reverse platoon split (RHBs career .328 wOBA vs .284 for LHBs). He could be projected to struggle more than many think in his new home except for the fact that his division is terrible. Many of his home starts will be against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. He’s not in Minnesota on Opening Day. He’s in Baltimore. That’s worse. According to Seamheads.org three-year park factors, Baltimore has the third highest HR rate for RHBs (1.3). Odorizzi is a sneaky pitcher to target with RHBs on Opening Day.
Jose Urena (.249 – 79% – 13.1) ran nearly a run and a half below estimators above five. His .340 xwOBA was nearly 20 points above his actual, league average wOBA and he has one of the lowest strikeout rates on the board. On the plus side, he pitches in a friendly park and had an 85.4 mph aEV, while his slider and change both had double digit whiff rates per Brooks Baseball. We still don’t want to use him, but he may not be the ideal pitcher to stack up against either.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Carlos Martinez has the largest cost differential on the board ($3.2K), which puts plenty of pitchers above him both overall and in terms of value on DraftKings. His talent level is not in question, though his consistency may be. The estimators paint a picture of a good, but not great 2017. LHBs have presented a problem both last year (.337 wOBA) and in his career (.333 wOBA). While the ground ball rate remains above 50% against them, he walks 10% of lefties with a hard hit rate above 32%, again, both for his career and last season. Jay Bruce and a very patient Brandon Nimmo could present issues, though it would be difficult to argue against anyone who wanted to take a chance on a $7.9K pitcher with a 25 K% and 50+ GB% on FanDuel.
Danny Duffy is coming off a solid, but unspectacular season in which he strangely allowed a BABIP above .300 despite generating his usual high popup rate. Statcast doesn’t see anything amiss either. He is one of several pitchers today with at least a slight injury issue. He left his last spring start with tightness in his left shoulder, which is one of the more concerning areas for a left-handed pitcher. The White Sox weren’t exactly terrible against LHP last season and while some of the reasons for that competence are gone, they still have some potential lefty-mashers in that lineup. One may remember a masterful appearance last May against a powerful, predominantly right-handed Yankee lineup, in which he threw as many sliders as fastballs and struck out 10, but it was not something he was able to consistently reproduce, as RHBs produced a .329 wOBA against him, close to his career .333 mark against them. If players aren’t willing to pay up for pitching on the main slate, I can see how they’d end up either here or on Bundy and while neither is likely a terrible decision, it could be a bit of a trap.
Chris Archer is a phenomenal talent, but he faces a tough Boston lineup that got tougher with the addition of J.D. Martinez this winter. While the Red Sox were not necessarily a potent offense against RHP last year, they retained strong plate discipline. Archer presents a bit of risk with the highest average exit velocity on the board (89 mph) and a decrease in upside potential against a contact prone team may be enough reason for players to look elsewhere on a star studded board. That said, his home park is friendly (10.5 HR/FB at home vs 14.1 overall last season) and the cost ($8.5K) is a bit lower than anticipated. There’s enough of a chance that he goes off that he might be worth minimal exposure for players with a large number of lineups, but realize that he’s also been dealing with the dreaded “forearm issue” over the last week, which probably makes a fade even easier to justify.
Dylan Bundy ran both hot and cold over the course of the 2017 season with the overall results quite average. He increased his slider usage in the second half, which led to an increase in his strikeout rate (26.9% vs 18.9% in the first half), but ended the season on a sour note, getting bashed in two of his last three starts. The Twins have a formidable, though mostly unimposing lineup against RHP. The concern is for an unfriendly park in regards to a fly ball pitcher (32.8 GB%) with an 88.1 mph aEV last season (fourth highest on the board). The strange thing is, I feel like I like him more than the numbers can justify, especially at a reasonable cost. There are just so many better spots today.
Julio Teheran did increase his strikeout rate to league average in the second half last season, but he was still really no better than exactly that…a league average pitcher. That’s not entirely useless here at a reasonable cost, but that’s probably what your upside is here, league average pitcher. The Phillies should be better.
Garrett Richards has thrown just 62 major league innings since 2015, though his six starts last year were impressive. His spring was strong enough for him to be given the ball on Opening Day, but it consisted of just 12.2 innings over four starts with seven walks to go along with his 14 strikeouts. While he does have a history of weak contact and low BABIPs and is facing a strikeout prone team in favorable park, my concern is mostly for a pitcher who has averaged barely over five innings over the last two calendar years and has not thrown many pitches in March. Oakland is not totally bereft of thump either (15.1 HR//FB vs RHP last season, 15.6 HR/FB at home).
J.A. Happ didn’t have a poor season by any stretch, but he’s one of the more interesting Opening Day choices. There’s isn’t anything inherently wrong with him, but neither is there anything strongly appealing in a matchup against this predominantly right-handed, powerhouse Yankee lineup.
Cole Hamels is coming off a pretty terrible year. Considering how much of that was due to injury is for naught because he’s facing the Astros in one of the most hitter friendly environments in play.
Felix Hernandez sits behind only Bailey and Zimmermann in xwOBA (.350) last season. His 9.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board. He has a lot to prove and the Cleveland lineup is not one we’re going to trust him against, especially considering recent forearm issues.
Clayton Richard is acquitted of a 4.79 ERA by not only his estimators, but his BABIP and league average xwOBA too. However, he does not have a lot of strikeout potential and faces one of the busiest teams this off-season. LHBs have no chance against him (career .277 wOBA, 64.2 GB%), but RHBs mash (.355 wOBA, 21.2 Hard-Soft%).
James Shields is a likely target for DFS players, especially with Homer Bailey now off the board, and there’s nothing wrong with some Kansas City exposure against a pitcher who’s ERA above five is backed by his estimators and an xwOBA/wOBA around .350. I’ll play devil’s advocate though by reposting something from the forums. Shields had a 14.3 K-BB% and 31.4 Hard% over his last 10 starts and Kansas City is a power suppressing park (though a positive overall run environment) and the home lineup is likely to be very poor absent Cain and Hosmer.
Ivan Nova is in a fine spot theoretically, against what should be a poor Detroit offense, but there are a few issues here. He has little strikeout potential. His 91.3 Z-Contact% is highest on the board. He fools nobody and gets hit fairly hard too (87.9 mph aEV). Detroit has become a fairly positive run scoring environment.
Kendall Graveman is another interesting Opening Day choice. It seems every year there’s some pre-season hype about an increase in velocity and strikeouts until he inevitably morphs into a high ground ball, low strikeout pitcher again. Perhaps people have finally gotten tired of that and are over him because I’ve read no such gobbeldygook this year.
Ty Blach is also pitching today…on Opening Day. I made a joke on Twitter that the Giants need to lock up Johnny Cueto because they were getting pretty close to Derek Holland, Opening Day starter. Derek Holland liked that tweet. Cool dude. Sense of humor. Giants seem to have a sense of humor too. Starting a pitcher with a 10.6 K% and ERA with estimators around five in their first game. The upside, is that his 3.7% Barrels/BBE is second lowest on the board, essentially justifying a nearly league average wOBA, but even that is nothing to brag about when pitching half your games in San Francisco.
Jordan Zimmermann had a 26.1 Hard-Soft% last season behind only Chris Archer on this board. It rose to 29.5% at home. As suggested in the link directly above, Comerica Park might be a hidden hitter’s haven. He had a .354 xwOBA and .362 Home xwOBA last season and an 88.6 mph aEV overall. The Pirates may have made a few trades, but still have some formidable bats in that lineup. Zimmermann did not have a platoon split last year. He was mauled equally well by batters from either side.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent peripherals for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | wK% | wBB% | wHR/FB | wHd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.9% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 7.0% | Season | 26.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 8.1% | Road | 22.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | L14Days | 32.7% | 7.7% | 22.2% | 19.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 11.6% | Season | 25.3% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 12.7% | Road | 26.1% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 18.0% | L14Days | 23.1% | 9.6% | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 16.0% | Season | 23.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.8% | Road | 24.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 9.6% | L14Days | 29.2% | 2.8% | 13.3% | |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 28.2% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 20.9% | Season | 29.2% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 26.2% | Home | 32.7% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 28.8% | L14Days | 22.6% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 29.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 30.7% | 5.0% | 12.1% | 13.1% | Season | 36.2% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | Road | 38.2% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | L14Days | 40.4% | 3.9% | 40.0% | 28.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 30.8% | 3.3% | 12.3% | 5.5% | Season | 29.8% | 4.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | Home | 32.3% | 4.3% | 16.9% | 13.5% | L14Days | 20.0% | 2.9% | 21.4% | 9.2% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 7.7% | 17.0% | 14.1% | Season | 17.6% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 17.7% | Home | 18.6% | 6.4% | 14.3% | 17.3% | L14Days | 27.3% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 33.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | Season | 17.1% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 22.3% | Home | 18.6% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 30.0% | L14Days | 25.8% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 38.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.1% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 6.0% | Season | 34.1% | 4.6% | 13.5% | 4.5% | Road | 31.1% | 4.3% | 18.7% | 14.9% | L14Days | 26.5% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 15.5% | Season | 21.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | Home | 21.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 13.2% | L14Days | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | Season | 21.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 18.9% | Home | 20.4% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 16.9% | L14Days | 10.0% | 5.0% | 41.1% | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 11.9% | Season | 21.2% | 7.1% | 22.4% | 11.6% | Home | 21.9% | 8.5% | 20.5% | 9.1% | L14Days | 16.7% | 13.9% | 20.0% | 28.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 12.6% | Season | 25.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | Road | 22.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | L14Days | 23.7% | 10.5% | |||
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 14.6% | Season | 16.0% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 14.5% | Home | 15.6% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 16.2% | L14Days | 14.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 4.5% | 16.2% | 16.9% | Season | 16.7% | 4.6% | 15.8% | 18.2% | Road | 17.5% | 4.8% | 19.5% | 22.4% | L14Days | 11.8% | 14.7% | 24.0% | |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | Season | 22.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 6.4% | Home | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 13.2% | L14Days | 28.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 18.9% | Season | 21.0% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 21.5% | Road | 20.1% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 16.1% | L14Days | 36.1% | 8.3% | 5.0% | |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 16.8% | Season | 20.0% | 10.3% | 17.4% | 14.0% | Road | 19.7% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 10.5% | L14Days | 24.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 14.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 9.9% | Season | 24.3% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 5.7% | Road | 26.1% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | L14Days | 27.7% | 2.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 7.4% | Season | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 6.7% | Road | 22.3% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 10.9% | L14Days | 16.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 14.5% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 19.4% | Season | 14.5% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 26.1% | Home | 14.2% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 29.5% | L14Days | 18.0% | 5.1% | 46.7% | |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 12.4% | Season | 15.6% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | Home | 13.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | L14Days | 11.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 23.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | Season | 18.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 9.3% | Home | 17.5% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 9.3% | L14Days | 14.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | Season | 25.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.0% | Road | 28.2% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 18.6% | L14Days | 36.2% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 3.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 14.5% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 12.8% | Season | 15.8% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 14.2% | Home | 17.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 14.2% | L14Days | 14.8% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 11.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 8.4% | Season | 29.4% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 9.1% | Road | 29.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | L14Days | 33.3% | 5.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.3% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | Season | 34.4% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 7.0% | Road | 34.5% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 8.4% | L14Days | 36.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 29.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | Season | 27.4% | 2.4% | 13.9% | Home | 32.1% | 14.8% | L14Days | 20.0% | 10.0% | 57.1% | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 17.8% | Season | 21.6% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 13.1% | Home | 21.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 13.1% | L14Days | 16.7% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Yrs | 11.0% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.0% | Season | 10.6% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | Road | 8.6% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 14.3% | L14Days | 5.9% | 11.8% | 7.2% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split5 | h/aK% | h/aBB%2 | h/aHR/FB2 | h/aHd-St%2 | Split6 | phK% | phBB% | phHR/FB | phHd-St% | Split7 | L7K% | L7BB% | L7HR/FB | L7Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Mets | Home | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 1.1% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 7.0% | RH | 25.3% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 5.7% | L7Days | 25.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | -2.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | RH | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 4.1% |
| Rays | Home | 25.8% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 20.2% | LH | 25.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Road | 19.7% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | LH | 19.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 19.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.0% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 12.9% | LH | 25.9% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 16.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 15.6% | LH | 16.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 11.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 15.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | RH | 20.7% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.6% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 11.5% | LH | 21.2% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 22.3% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 13.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 16.6% | L7Days | 28.7% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 18.3% | RH | 19.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.8% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 16.1% | RH | 24.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 16.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 16.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 12.2% | RH | 21.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 26.0% | RH | 22.1% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 20.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 11.9% | LH | 22.0% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.2% | 21.9% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.3% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 13.7% | RH | 22.7% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 23.6% |
| Royals | Home | 18.2% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | RH | 19.6% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.9% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 23.2% | RH | 23.2% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 17.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 22.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 8.4% | LH | 20.2% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 4.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.9% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | RH | 19.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 11.2% | RH | 22.4% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 14.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 14.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.7% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 18.9% | RH | 24.3% | 8.9% | 16.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Road | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | RH | 19.8% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 7.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 10.6% | RH | 21.4% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 6.6% | 18.5% | 4.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 9.0% | RH | 21.2% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 14.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 10.1% | LH | 23.2% | 8.1% | 17.2% | 14.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 20.0% | LH | 22.3% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 19.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 19.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 26.6% | 10.8% | 2.46 | 33.1% | 10.8% | 3.06 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 25.3% | 10.6% | 2.39 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.40 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.29 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.25 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 29.2% | 13.4% | 2.18 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 1.71 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 36.2% | 14.9% | 2.43 | 35.5% | 14.9% | 2.38 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 29.8% | 14.1% | 2.11 | 22.9% | 14.1% | 1.62 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 17.6% | 8.6% | 2.05 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.43 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 17.1% | 9.7% | 1.76 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.38 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 34.1% | 15.6% | 2.19 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 1.99 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.4% | 11.4% | 1.88 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 1.86 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 21.8% | 11.4% | 1.91 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 2.03 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 1.88 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 25.0% | 12.7% | 1.97 | 25.6% | 12.7% | 2.02 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.72 | 18.9% | 9.3% | 2.03 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 2.60 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.39 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.57 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.88 | 30.9% | 11.2% | 2.76 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 20.0% | 10.2% | 1.96 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 2.23 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 24.3% | 8.8% | 2.76 | 28.3% | 8.8% | 3.22 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.15 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 1.61 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 14.5% | 8.1% | 1.79 | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.68 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 13.0% | 8.2% | 1.59 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.98 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 1.84 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 25.8% | 10.7% | 2.41 | 35.8% | 10.7% | 3.35 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.93 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 29.4% | 13.0% | 2.26 | 33.9% | 13.0% | 2.61 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.4% | 15.5% | 2.22 | 27.7% | 15.5% | 1.79 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 27.4% | 13.9% | 1.97 | 20.0% | 13.9% | 1.44 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 21.6% | 11.1% | 1.95 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 1.64 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 10.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 5.1% | 6.2% | 0.82 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.49 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.48 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 3.54 | 3.60 | 0.06 | 3.54 | -0.16 | 3.27 | -0.27 | 2.64 | -0.90 | 3.86 | 2.87 | -0.99 | 2.39 | -1.47 | 3.36 | -0.50 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.64 | 3.85 | 0.21 | 3.64 | -0.01 | 3.91 | 0.27 | 3.76 | 0.12 | 4.35 | 3.99 | -0.36 | 3.86 | -0.49 | 3.80 | -0.55 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 2.74 | 4.14 | 1.40 | 2.74 | 1.59 | 3.58 | 0.84 | 4.17 | 1.43 | 2.06 | 3.83 | 1.77 | 3.64 | 1.58 | 3.13 | 1.07 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 4.07 | 3.44 | -0.63 | 4.07 | -0.72 | 3.40 | -0.67 | 3.28 | -0.79 | 7.48 | 4.00 | -3.48 | 3.86 | -3.62 | 5.05 | -2.43 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.90 | 2.58 | -0.32 | 2.90 | -0.25 | 2.45 | -0.45 | 2.37 | -0.53 | 3.72 | 2.73 | -0.99 | 2.51 | -1.21 | 5.19 | 1.47 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2.31 | 3.04 | 0.73 | 2.31 | 0.53 | 3.07 | 0.76 | 3.10 | 0.79 | 4.23 | 3.85 | -0.38 | 3.66 | -0.57 | 4.21 | -0.02 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.79 | 4.06 | -0.73 | 4.79 | -1.03 | 4.23 | -0.56 | 5.78 | 0.99 | 3.86 | 3.95 | 0.09 | 3.46 | -0.40 | 3.32 | -0.54 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.20 | 4.90 | 0.70 | 4.20 | 0.63 | 4.62 | 0.42 | 4.51 | 0.31 | 5.13 | 4.48 | -0.65 | 4.5 | -0.63 | 4.48 | -0.65 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.25 | 2.68 | 0.43 | 2.25 | 0.27 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 1.99 | -0.26 | 0.84 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 2.43 | 1.59 | 2.02 | 1.18 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 3.81 | 4.31 | 0.50 | 3.81 | 0.58 | 3.46 | -0.35 | 3.79 | -0.02 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 0.16 | 4.05 | -0.06 | 3.16 | -0.95 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.24 | 4.45 | 0.21 | 4.24 | 0.53 | 4.38 | 0.14 | 3.72 | -0.52 | 7.53 | 4.62 | -2.91 | 5.17 | -2.36 | 4.13 | -3.40 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 4.36 | 4.19 | -0.17 | 4.36 | -0.33 | 5.02 | 0.66 | 3.95 | -0.41 | 4.85 | 4.39 | -0.46 | 4.02 | -0.83 | 3.93 | -0.92 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 2.28 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 2.43 | 0.15 | 2.65 | 0.37 | 2.74 | 3.70 | 0.96 | 3.49 | 0.75 | 2.51 | -0.23 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.43 | 5.19 | -1.24 | 6.43 | -1.45 | 4.90 | -1.53 | 7.86 | 1.43 | 4.08 | 4.61 | 0.53 | 4.46 | 0.38 | 3.82 | -0.26 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.14 | 4.45 | 0.31 | 4.14 | 0.05 | 4.46 | 0.32 | 5.44 | 1.30 | 4.42 | 4.73 | 0.31 | 4.84 | 0.42 | 4.74 | 0.32 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3.53 | 4.11 | 0.58 | 3.53 | 0.41 | 3.76 | 0.23 | 3.73 | 0.20 | 1.99 | 3.74 | 1.75 | 3.58 | 1.59 | 2.72 | 0.73 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.14 | 4.90 | 0.76 | 4.14 | 0.96 | 5.43 | 1.29 | 4.84 | 0.70 | 1.03 | 3.55 | 2.52 | 3.46 | 2.43 | 2.89 | 1.86 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 5.23 | 4.94 | -0.29 | 5.23 | -0.04 | 5.83 | 0.60 | 4.71 | -0.52 | 3.94 | 4.36 | 0.42 | 4.43 | 0.49 | 4.75 | 0.81 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 3.67 | 3.74 | 0.07 | 3.67 | -0.22 | 3.18 | -0.49 | 3.51 | -0.16 | 2.57 | 3.29 | 0.72 | 3.19 | 0.62 | 2.73 | 0.16 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 4.33 | 4.07 | -0.26 | 4.33 | -0.48 | 4.10 | -0.23 | 4.06 | -0.27 | 4.18 | 5.05 | 0.87 | 4.76 | 0.58 | 5.42 | 1.24 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 6.08 | 5.22 | -0.86 | 6.08 | -0.67 | 5.18 | -0.90 | 6.25 | 0.17 | 6.00 | 4.86 | -1.14 | 4.73 | -1.27 | 2.36 | -3.64 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.82 | 5.19 | 1.37 | 3.82 | 1.47 | 5.20 | 1.38 | 5.39 | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 1.75 | 5.09 | 1.34 | 5.63 | 1.88 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.49 | 4.89 | 0.40 | 4.49 | 0.47 | 4.95 | 0.46 | 3.71 | -0.78 | 3.19 | 5.32 | 2.13 | 5.29 | 2.10 | 4.06 | 0.87 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 3.36 | 4.05 | 0.69 | 3.36 | 0.81 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 3.12 | -0.24 | 1.06 | 2.59 | 1.53 | 2.94 | 1.88 | 2.69 | 1.63 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 4.19 | 4.74 | 0.55 | 4.19 | 0.35 | 4.33 | 0.14 | 3.88 | -0.31 | 3.12 | 4.93 | 1.81 | 4.81 | 1.69 | 4.23 | 1.11 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.98 | 3.25 | 0.27 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 3.07 | 0.09 | 3.04 | 0.06 | 2.10 | 2.73 | 0.63 | 2.65 | 0.55 | 2.09 | -0.01 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.51 | 2.98 | 0.47 | 2.51 | 0.77 | 2.90 | 0.39 | 2.33 | -0.18 | 4.05 | 4.12 | 0.07 | 4.36 | 0.31 | 3.01 | -1.04 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.97 | 2.74 | -0.23 | 2.97 | -0.49 | 1.31 | -1.66 | 3.85 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2.82 | 2.82 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 4.03 | 4.12 | 0.09 | 4.03 | -0.14 | 4.08 | 0.05 | 4.64 | 0.61 | 4.70 | 5.31 | 0.61 | 4.92 | 0.22 | 4.63 | -0.07 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 4.78 | 5.36 | 0.58 | 4.78 | 0.23 | 4.42 | -0.36 | 6.61 | 1.83 | 5.93 | 6.77 | 0.84 | 6.34 | 0.41 | 5.21 | -0.72 |
Chase Anderson is not favored by his estimators. Statcast may say different, but with this large a gap, we’re probably still looking at significant regression.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 44 GB% – 20.7 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.5 Z-Contact% – 36.8 Z-O-Swing%)
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.005 | 49.8% | 19.1% | 6.3% | 84.1% | 31.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.298 | 0.284 | -0.014 | 51.3% | 18.8% | 8.5% | 86.2% | 36.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.265 | -0.033 | 39.2% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 85.0% | 36.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.042 | 42.0% | 22.0% | 9.4% | 81.6% | 36.8% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.303 | 0.301 | -0.002 | 38.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 79.2% | 29.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.267 | -0.014 | 47.9% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 82.4% | 38.3% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.299 | 0.351 | 0.052 | 59.2% | 21.0% | 5.6% | 89.6% | 36.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.251 | -0.038 | 47.5% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 86.7% | 38.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.303 | 0.267 | -0.036 | 44.5% | 22.1% | 11.5% | 82.4% | 28.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.303 | 0.309 | 0.006 | 39.5% | 19.9% | 12.2% | 85.9% | 38.8% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.273 | -0.029 | 32.8% | 20.0% | 11.9% | 85.2% | 36.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.283 | 0.286 | 0.003 | 46.9% | 23.2% | 7.9% | 89.1% | 34.6% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.289 | 0.233 | -0.056 | 54.2% | 16.7% | 9.5% | 88.5% | 39.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.296 | 0.346 | 0.050 | 44.6% | 27.0% | 8.3% | 86.9% | 38.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.299 | -0.007 | 45.7% | 23.4% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 35.1% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 46.9% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 85.1% | 36.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.296 | 0.227 | -0.069 | 30.6% | 22.1% | 9.3% | 81.5% | 43.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.270 | -0.011 | 38.2% | 18.3% | 7.1% | 85.1% | 39.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.336 | 0.031 | 48.9% | 22.5% | 11.1% | 90.1% | 32.5% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.310 | 0.025 | 46.2% | 21.4% | 7.3% | 84.2% | 33.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.330 | 0.010 | 33.2% | 24.8% | 12.1% | 90.1% | 37.9% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.298 | 0.249 | -0.049 | 43.1% | 18.7% | 9.0% | 88.9% | 39.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.302 | 0.281 | -0.021 | 40.0% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 86.0% | 36.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 33.5% | 23.8% | 9.8% | 85.4% | 38.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.313 | 0.019 | 51.2% | 19.0% | 5.0% | 91.1% | 36.7% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.272 | -0.008 | 50.6% | 18.8% | 12.0% | 82.3% | 35.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.245 | -0.042 | 36.5% | 16.9% | 11.8% | 79.5% | 33.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.319 | 0.337 | 0.018 | 57.6% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 90.3% | 30.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.326 | 0.032 | 50.4% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 88.4% | 34.2% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.308 | 0.290 | -0.018 | 46.7% | 21.5% | 7.3% | 90.1% | 41.7% |
StatCast Chart
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.276 | 0.023 | 0.291 | 0.040 | 0.265 | 0.065 | 0.2 | 85.6 | 5.0 | 29.9 | 458 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.020 | 0.294 | 0.026 | 0.286 | 0.011 | -1.4 | 86.4 | 5.2 | 32.8 | 561 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.273 | 0.011 | 0.273 | 0.012 | 0.281 | -0.017 | -1.5 | 84.4 | 4.4 | 26.8 | 388 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.292 | 0.019 | 0.269 | 0.015 | 0.299 | 0.092 | -0.9 | 89 | 5.4 | 37.9 | 538 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.248 | 0.016 | 0.239 | 0.016 | 0.303 | 0.070 | -1.1 | 86.4 | 6.1 | 29.5 | 492 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 0.253 | 0.008 | 0.269 | -0.010 | 0.259 | 0.052 | -0.4 | 84.6 | 6.3 | 26.5 | 446 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.320 | 0.043 | 0.310 | 0.036 | 0.316 | 0.027 | -1.8 | 86.7 | 4.4 | 33.1 | 640 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.325 | -0.018 | 0.335 | -0.017 | 0.332 | -0.012 | -0.1 | 87.7 | 4.5 | 34.2 | 445 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.248 | -0.004 | 0.292 | -0.021 | 0.240 | -0.014 | -0.1 | 85.3 | 5.5 | 27.8 | 471 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.301 | 0.008 | 0.304 | -0.011 | 0.287 | -0.002 | 0.6 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 434 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.316 | -0.003 | 0.310 | -0.007 | 0.341 | 0.009 | -1.1 | 88.1 | 7.8 | 35.2 | 488 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.350 | -0.010 | 0.340 | -0.022 | 0.305 | -0.073 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 9.7 | 32.7 | 257 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.274 | -0.052 | 0.259 | -0.028 | 0.282 | -0.054 | -0.8 | 85.7 | 4.1 | 28.4 | 74 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.361 | 0.017 | 0.357 | 0.052 | 0.325 | -0.003 | 0.3 | 86.8 | 4.3 | 35.0 | 303 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.333 | 0.001 | 0.348 | 0.004 | 0.312 | 0.023 | -0.9 | 87.9 | 7.0 | 35.8 | 611 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.288 | 0.019 | 0.309 | 0.015 | 0.256 | 0.011 | -0.5 | 85.7 | 4.3 | 30.8 | 438 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.320 | -0.004 | 0.311 | -0.005 | 0.277 | -0.086 | -1.5 | 87.2 | 8.2 | 34.6 | 413 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.349 | 0.006 | 0.357 | 0.022 | 0.327 | -0.021 | 0.8 | 87.7 | 8.7 | 37.0 | 357 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.296 | 0.018 | 0.311 | 0.020 | 0.275 | -0.004 | 0.7 | 85.2 | 4.1 | 30.6 | 317 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.301 | 0.025 | 0.317 | 0.013 | 0.351 | 0.010 | 0.0 | 85.4 | 5.4 | 29.1 | 519 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.354 | 0.024 | 0.362 | 0.020 | 0.374 | -0.024 | -0.4 | 88.6 | 7.3 | 33.3 | 559 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.340 | -0.019 | 0.337 | 0.001 | 0.328 | 0.007 | -0.6 | 85.4 | 8.1 | 28.7 | 533 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.320 | 0.014 | 0.344 | 0.011 | 0.299 | 0.031 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 6.2 | 29.9 | 582 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.309 | -0.018 | 0.309 | 0.012 | 0.242 | -0.037 | -0.9 | 87.3 | 7.2 | 35.4 | 554 |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 0.342 | -0.001 | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.313 | -0.015 | 0.3 | 88.8 | 6.2 | 38.5 | 338 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.265 | 0.001 | 0.243 | 0.014 | 0.198 | -0.008 | -0.4 | 86.8 | 5.7 | 32.1 | 495 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.241 | 0.009 | 0.238 | -0.009 | 0.252 | 0.016 | -0.6 | 85.7 | 5.4 | 28.3 | 446 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.260 | -0.007 | 0.224 | 0.015 | -0.4 | 86.2 | 3.5 | 31.4 | 86 | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.314 | 0.027 | 0.303 | 0.017 | 0.356 | -0.005 | 0.1 | 87.6 | 6.7 | 35.1 | 584 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.328 | 0.001 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 0.364 | -0.052 | -2.4 | 85.7 | 3.7 | 31.7 | 575 |
Chase Anderson certainly has a believer in Statcast.
Clayton Kershaw was able to support a low wOBA last season. Even when it rose significantly late in the season, his xwOBA stayed intact.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
A lot of these guys are so close that I don’t feel comfortable at all separating them in terms of overall expectation or into value tiers on Opening Day. Any of the top six or seven days can be a top guy on most other days of the season. My top values just happen to be the cheaper arms among those.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (6) may be a top five pitcher on an Opening Day slate. In fact, it may be more of a stretch to say that he’s not. The underlying numbers show that this is a pitcher with remaining potential beyond a three and a half ERA, yet his cost is below $10K (well below on FD) on both major sites. There are two daily fantasy concerns against the Braves. One is Freddie Freeman, the other is a team strikeout rate below the league average. The generous price tag far outweighs these marginal opposing concerns.
Luis Severino (4) has similar upside to the elite arms on the board at a still high ($10K+), but slightly lower price tag. The removal of Scherzer from the main slate will probably increase his ownership rate a bit, but Sale should still be more popular. He’s a nice alternative, who may project just as well if not better on point per dollar basis.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) passes every test of dominance on every board above and has one of the highest upside matchups on the board in a favorable park. He’s also the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings (Kershaw & Kluber unavailable). None the less, he’d probably still bump up a tier if I were absolutely sure he’s ready to go deep into this game after being knocked out so early in his last spring training tune-up. He may still be able to reach 10 Ks with 90 pitches, but should have significant ownership rates as well.
Patrick Corbin costs just $6.4K on Fanduel with the newly installed humidor against a terrible road offense. He’s probably greatly under-valued in this spot. That’s the good news. The bad is that he’s on the late slate.
Clayton Kershaw (2) only carries a price tag on FanDuel and it is the highest one at that. Coming off a dominant spring, he’s set to start the season in a nice spot at home against the Giants. Despite upgrading their RH lineup components, they shouldn’t be able to match potentially still the best pitcher in the land when he’s healthy.
Corey Kluber (3) is in Kershaw’s price range on FanDuel and also, disappointingly, unavailable in DraftKings classic setups with a similar outlook. His matchup may be just slightly tougher than Sale and Kershaw, though all three enjoy pitcher friendly environments.
Value Tier Three
Noah Syndergaard (5) dominates right-handed hitters at home, combining elite strikeouts with a lot of ground balls and the Mets infield defense should be vastly improved this season. He struck out 23 in 20 spring innings, allowing just three earned runs. Any holdover injury concerns from last season have been eradicated. He is priced among the elites though (where he belongs), especially on DraftKings where he is the second costliest pitcher for the entire day.
Justin Verlander (7) has the second highest price gap and maybe deserves a tier bump on FanDuel for $2.1K less. An extreme fly ball pitcher against a powerful lineup in Texas is not ideal, but HRs alone do not make this a good lineup. There are still plenty of strikeouts to be found here. He can allow a few HRs and still show a nice return if he strikes out 10 or more.
Jon Lester is pitching in Miami. This is a spot that daily fantasy players are going to often attack, rightfully so, probably all season long. The cost is not ideal for a declining pitcher, but a lot of that is likely based upon how great this matchup is. He may not be what he was, but he was still able to miss bats at a more than reasonable rate and limit hard contact. While we’re generally looking for a high ceiling in GPPs, especially at a higher cost, the floor here should be fairly high.
Jon Gray did not have a strong spring from a runs allowed standpoint and with less information available for exhibition games, we can only take an analysis so deep. What we do know is that perhaps more than other Colorado pitchers, his home/road splits should be more deeply considered. He pitched differently, striking out more batters on the road and did an excellent job of limiting hard contact overall. The humidor is likely to under-value Arizona pitchers on both sides in the early going. He’s cheap enough on FanDuel ($7.8K), but unfortunately, not available on DraftKings in classic contests currently.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez has the potential to surpass $7.9K on FanDuel despite his platoon flaws.
Chase Anderson is probably the pitcher I’m most on the fence about. Statcast believes him to have been better than his estimators last season, but a run and a half better is still probably a stretch. He’s affordable enough in friendly park to consider if it looks like nobody else is going to be on him, but the San Diego offense should be vastly improved this year.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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