Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 19th
Short intro week continues. Heck, it might even be a superstitious thing now with our top value putting up 35 DK points last night. All 15 games are on the night slate on Tuesday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | -1.3 | 4.32 | 5.3 | 40.6% | 0.87 | 4.19 | 5.17 | Astros | 101 | 126 | 167 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | -5 | 3.93 | 5.8 | 43.1% | 1.06 | 3.20 | 4.30 | Indians | 122 | 109 | 93 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 5.6 | 2.80 | 6.7 | 40.7% | 1.05 | 2.60 | 2.62 | Twins | 98 | 87 | 74 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -1.1 | 4.39 | 6.2 | 46.2% | 1.04 | 4.57 | 4.74 | Royals | 83 | 89 | 39 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -3.7 | 4.58 | 5.6 | 32.3% | 0.93 | 4.52 | 2.91 | Giants | 117 | 99 | 54 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -8.7 | 5.54 | 5.4 | 35.5% | 1.01 | 5.19 | 6.18 | Nationals | 90 | 92 | 70 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -6.3 | 4.39 | 5.0 | 37.1% | 0.93 | 3.72 | 5.08 | Marlins | 81 | 82 | 88 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 4.8 | 3.62 | 5.6 | 42.2% | 1.03 | 3.06 | 3.20 | Mariners | 110 | 105 | 132 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -6.8 | 4.98 | 4.5 | 34.0% | 0.91 | 4.89 | 5.62 | Athletics | 118 | 86 | 93 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 5.6 | 3.92 | 36.2% | 0.93 | 4.34 | Diamondbacks | 90 | 81 | 115 | ||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 6.3 | 3.61 | 4.6 | 50.0% | 0.98 | 2.35 | Pirates | 111 | 99 | 119 | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.9 | 4.23 | 5.5 | 45.7% | 1.33 | 4.03 | 3.48 | Mets | 99 | 98 | 99 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | -4.9 | 4.40 | 5.4 | 52.6% | 1.04 | 3.80 | 5.11 | Braves | 109 | 116 | 80 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -2.5 | 3.92 | 5.5 | 49.3% | 0.98 | 3.60 | 4.03 | Brewers | 96 | 99 | 91 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 3.6 | 4.59 | 5.7 | 38.5% | 1.04 | 4.97 | 4.57 | Rangers | 83 | 87 | 108 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -3.1 | 4.76 | 5.3 | 39.4% | 1.33 | 4.93 | 4.15 | Rockies | 81 | 93 | 82 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | -5.6 | 5.29 | 28.6% | 1.01 | Orioles | 72 | 81 | 94 | |||
| Jose Berrios | Twins | -0.1 | 4.19 | 5.7 | 39.3% | 1.05 | 3.38 | 2.71 | Red Sox | 99 | 118 | 99 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 4.8 | 3.57 | 6.5 | 31.9% | 0.87 | 4.05 | 3.57 | Rays | 94 | 99 | 64 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.5 | 3.78 | 5.1 | 42.4% | 0.97 | 3.58 | 5.27 | Phillies | 102 | 94 | 120 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | -2.1 | 4.00 | 5.1 | 46.3% | 1.03 | 3.68 | 3.63 | Yankees | 118 | 121 | 106 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.71 | 5.4 | 36.0% | 1.01 | 4.84 | 4.62 | Reds | 92 | 102 | 85 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 3.5 | 4.81 | 5.8 | 41.4% | 0.93 | 4.67 | 4.64 | Angels | 100 | 110 | 114 |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | 4.7 | 3.62 | 5.3 | 45.3% | 1.04 | 2.34 | 3.63 | Blue Jays | 105 | 100 | 99 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 7.1 | 4.27 | 5.5 | 41.4% | 1.06 | 3.80 | 3.14 | White Sox | 93 | 94 | 79 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 12.6 | 4.11 | 5.1 | 58.2% | 1.01 | 4.68 | 4.50 | Dodgers | 113 | 101 | 108 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 3 | 5.08 | 5.5 | 56.6% | 0.91 | 4.71 | 4.57 | Padres | 98 | 83 | 77 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -2.3 | 3.58 | 5.2 | 37.2% | 1.01 | 3.62 | Cubs | 105 | 108 | 80 | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -3.4 | 4.85 | 5.3 | 47.7% | 1.01 | 4.68 | 4.19 | Tigers | 85 | 87 | 96 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -7.4 | 3.95 | 5.2 | 39.2% | 0.97 | 3.82 | 4.11 | Cardinals | 97 | 94 | 89 |
Blake Snell did not stand up to the pressure the Yankees put on him (5 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 4 BB), but did still strikeout eight of 24 batters and is thrown right back into the fire in Houston tonight. The Astros have a split high 126 wRC+ (20.5 K%) vs LHP and 167 wRC+ (13.5 K%, 17.6 HR/FB) over the last week. Neither of those are even close, but he does gain the benefit of the most negative run environment on the board. Only three pitchers on the board with more than two starts have a higher strikeout rate (27.8%) and only one (Sale) has a higher strikeout rate over the last month (31%). Even with that Yankee Stadium start, he still has a .260 xwOBA over the last 30 days and a board low 25.7% 95+ mph EV for the season.
Chris Sale is one of two Cy Young caliber pitchers on this slate, but he hasn’t been as consistently dominant this season. The overall numbers are still great and he’s struck out 19 of his last 55, but he also walked four last time out, has failed to exceed six innings in four of his last six starts and recently had a stretch of six straight starts with a HR allowed. Regardless, he owns the highest strikeout rate on the board for both the season (34%) and the month (32.3%). His 2.71 SIERA is the only mark on the board below three and his 84.8 mph aEV is best on the board among those with more than two starts with his .264 xwOBA behind just Verlander today. The Twins are lacking right-handed potency (87 wRC+, 24 K%, 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP).
Dan Straily had a stretch of three straight starts with 5.2 innings or better to end May, but hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of his other six starts and has had to work hard to sustain a .420 xwOBA through that many outings. There’s no getting around the fact that he allows a lot of hard fly balls. We just don’t care about it as much in this park. He’s generating strikeouts at an almost league average rate (above that over the last month) and is facing an offense with a 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP in a very pitcher friendly park.
Derek Rodriguez has pitched well in starts against the Marlins and Phillies (12.2 IP – 12 H – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 10 K – 51 BF), but not so well against the Nationals (2.2 IP – 5 ER – 3 BB – 2 K), which is not terribly surprising. He has just an 18.4 K%, but an 11.2 SwStr% and a 25 K% in nine AAA starts, though that’s the highest rate of his minor league career. He’s consistently been between 19-23% at most stops though. He continues his romp through the NL East with a double up on the Marlins, which may put him in the top park adjusted spot on the board (81 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% on the road, 82 wRC+, 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP).
Domingo German has not allowed fewer than three runs in any of his six starts since throwing six no-hit innings in his first one. However, he’s struck out 19 of his last 48 batters to drive up his strikeout rate to 27.8% on the season. His 15.6 SwStr% is best on the board and his 17.4 SwStr% over the last month is even better. He’s one of two pitchers on the board with both an elite Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing% (the other is Sale). The Mariners are one of the more difficult matchups on the board (20.5 K% vs RHP, 18.9 HR/FB last seven days), but not the worst.
Jameson Taillon is not missing a ton of bats (22%) or preventing runs at an elite rate (3.94 ERA, 3.77 SIERA), but he’s pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts with strong contact management this season (50.9 GB%, 4.4% Barrels/BBE). His strikeout rate (23.7%), SIERA (3.37) and xwOBA (.244) have all improved over the last 30 days. The Brewers and the park are fairly neutral, maybe even favorable (24.7 K% vs RHP).
Justin Verlander has allowed six runs in 13 innings in Oakland and Texas over his last two starts, while his strikeout rate has dipped below 30% over the last month, in which his xwOBA has actually decreased to .228. His hard hit rate has been above 30% just four times this season: twice in Texas, against Boston and LA (AL). His 31.7 K% for the season is second best on the board and he’s completed six innings in all but one starts, missing by just a single out. He has a very favorable matchup in the most negative run environment on the board against an offense with a 29.8 K% over the last seven days that’s worst in the majors.
Luke Weaver has allowed eight ERs over his last 10.1 innings against the Reds and Padres with six walks and just seven strikeouts. Just four times this year has he completed six innings. His strikeout rate, his estimators, his Statcast board…all league average pitcher. Five inning, league average pitcher. There’s not a ton we can do with that, but he’s in a high upside spot tonight in Philadelphia (26.7 K%, 8.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Michael Soroka returned from the DL to throw six one-hit innings against the struggling Mets in just 74 pitches. The strongest mark against him this season is that none of his four major league starts have exceeded 90 pitches. The overall work has been solid (15.7 K-BB%) to go along with a 24 K-BB% In five AAA starts. The 20 year-old is the fourth best prospect in the system with a 55 Future Value Grade by Fangraphs. Scouts give that same 55 Future Value Grade to all three of his pitches (Fastball, Slider, Changeup) along with Command with the former two pitches already there. The Blue Jays are a neutral offense in a slightly positive run environment, but there are some strikeouts here (23.8% vs RHP).
Vince Velasquez got destroyed by Milwaukee (10 ERs in 3.2 IP), but bounced back strongly in an easier matchup against the Rockies (6.2 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 6 K). Outside of a few blow ups (four or more runs in less than five innings five times), he’s been a high quality pitcher (fewer than three runs in eight of 14 starts). His 28.3 K% for the season and 30.4 K% over the last month are both third best on the board. His .292 xwOBA is fourth best among those with more than four starts. The matchup against the Cardinals is favorable (25.8 K% on the road, 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.6 K-BB% last seven days).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Mike Montgomery (.164 – 98.6% – 9.5 through four starts) has exceeded 80 pitches in just one of his starts. He does have the top ground ball rate with the top defense behind him, which probably keeps him ahead of his estimators, but we need more than the 16.1 K% since becoming a starter, though his SwStr% has been in double digits in all four starts. I’m nearly talking myself into moving him into the fourth tier for $7K or less. The potential pitch count issues and an unfavorable matchup keep him here for now, but there’s favorable weather and umpire information…
Mike Clevinger (.286 – 76.6% – 7.9) most recently struck out 11 of 27 White Sox and that seemed to come out of nowhere as he had failed to exceed seven strikeouts in any of the six starts leading up to that. In fact, he has two double digit strikeout starts this year (one against the Yankees) without more than seven in any other start. By strikeouts and non-FIP estimators, he’s really a league average pitcher. By xwOBA, he’s a bit more and he has exceeded six innings in nine of 14 starts this year. I don’t think that’s a $10K pitcher, but a high upside rematch with the White Sox makes it close, though the run environment is more hitter friendly for this one.
Matt Boyd (.232 – 76.3% – 6.1) has just a 2.7 K-BB% over the last month.
Cole Hamels (.255 – 83.9% – 21.2) has estimators that all seem to be in disagreement with themselves along with his ERA. He’s in a very favorable run prevention spot against a lineup that had Alcides Escobar batting sixth yesterday, but Kansas City is not a very high upside spot and he’s not far above a league average strikeout rate anyway. I rarely take the opportunity to pay around $9K or more for him unless there are few other choices.
David Hess (.242 – 88.8% – 15.1)
Matt Koch (.244 – 78.2% – 18.7) gets absolutely blistered. I don’t know how he gets any outs. The outfield defense turns into acrobats when he’s on the mound. Jarrod Dyson seems to be the only thing that gives him a chance.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Marco Gonzales has been very good and is reasonably priced enough that he probably gets more strongly considered in any other matchup except the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. It may be the worst park adjusted spot on the board outside Coors.
Jose Berrios has dominated the Tigers and White Sox in recent starts (15 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 17 K – 58 BF) and his strikeouts are up to 29.3% over the last month, but steps in class against the Red Sox tonight (118 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP). I really wish he were more than $10K so I’d have more confidence in this decision because he’s one of the top contact managers on the board as well (85.7 mph aEV) and has a .260 xwOBA at home since last year, a split better only by his opponent’s mark on the road today.
Eric Lauer has allowed three runs or less in three of his four starts, but struck out just two last time out and walked seven in his previous start. He’s exceeded five innings in just three of 10 starts. That said, it’s a favorable matchup (A’s 17.3 K-BB% vs LHP) in a favorable park at a near minimum cost.
Jason Hammel has been less terrible recently and has a near league average strikeout rate over the last month, while facing a team with a 25.7 K% vs RHP tonight. He may even be worth considering for just $5K on DraftKings, but is $2.4K more on FanDuel.
Paul Blackburn did not strike out any of the 14 Astros he faced in his last start. He only even recorded four outs. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, I’d not expect the Padres (25.9 K% vs RHP) to do much with a guy who consistently posts ground ball rates well above 50% at every stop of his professional career, but what do they raise his strikeout rate to? Maybe 15%?
Felix Pena started nine games at AAA this season, his first starts at any level since 2015. This will be the first major league start for the 28 year-old. He has had high strikeout rates with borderline walk rates as a reliever the last few years at both the minor and major league level and also in his AAA starts this year. I really have no idea and it’s even more complicated by the fact that he’s exceeded 15 batters in just two of his starts, but one was his most recent start in which he faced a season high 24 batters, but that was two weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched anywhere since. The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP.
Rich Hill struck out 10 of 20 batters faced in a rehab game, but that was A-ball in a game in which he was apparently experimenting with mechanics. Not only has he been unable to avoid the DL this season, he’s not even been good when he has pitched. At best, the workload will likely be limited.
Jefry Rodriguez has not been named on a prospect list by Fangraphs since 2016. The 24 year-old missed most of 2017 and is just reaching AA for the first time in his career this year. His 25.4 K% there through 13 starts is the highest rate of his career, but with little information available and lack of a resume above A ball at a somewhat advanced age, this is another difficult arm to evaluate, but he’s in a great spot against the Orioles (72 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP), who lose the DH today.
Freddy Peralta started two games for the Brewers in the middle of May. The first was 5.2 innings of one-hit ball with 13 strikeouts at Coors. The second was six walks in four innings at Minnesota. He’s allowed just four runs in 24.1 IP at AAA since, striking out 38 of 97 batters with 10 walks since, but that covers five starts, which means he’s averaging less than five per. The 22 year-old is he number nine prospect in the system according to Fangraphs with a 45 Future Value Grade (below average) fueled just about entirely by a fastball/slider combo. The Pirates have a 17.4 K% at home and 18.9 K% vs RHP.
Carlos Rodon did reach 100 pitches in his second start, but struck out just four, has allowed three HRs and walked five of 47 batters faced so far, while allowing a 92 mph aEV. He’s an easy skip against an offense with a split best 122 wRC+ and 29.5 Hard-Soft% at home and also just a 19.6 K% vs LHP.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | Season | 27.8% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 14.4% | Road | 24.0% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | L14Days | 17.7% | 11.8% | 23.1% | 14.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 17.1% | Season | 23.4% | 10.6% | 23.1% | 20.7% | Road | 30.7% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 24.2% | L14Days | 23.4% | 10.6% | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 33.0% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 10.9% | Season | 34.0% | 6.9% | 12.3% | -3.7% | Road | 37.0% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | L14Days | 34.6% | 9.1% | -13.3% | |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 20.9% | Season | 23.2% | 9.0% | 21.2% | 28.6% | Road | 20.0% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 19.4% | L14Days | 20.4% | 11.1% | 23.1% | 37.9% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 19.3% | Season | 19.7% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 38.5% | Road | 21.6% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 17.2% | L14Days | 29.7% | 2.7% | 30.0% | 29.2% |
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 13.0% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 18.6% | Season | 13.0% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 18.6% | Road | 15.5% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 13.2% | L14Days | 14.0% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 23.4% | Season | 18.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 23.4% | Home | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 23.5% | L14Days | 13.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 20.6% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 17.7% | Season | 27.8% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 21.4% | Home | 30.8% | 12.0% | 20.8% | 14.3% | L14Days | 28.2% | 5.1% | 12.5% | 26.0% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 30.3% | Season | 18.3% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 30.3% | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | 23.8% | 37.3% | L14Days | 15.7% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 19.4% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 10.3% | 17.2% | 21.9% | Season | 15.4% | 33.3% | 45.5% | Home | 26.8% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 21.1% | L14Days | |||||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 45.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% | 7.2% | Season | 45.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% | 7.2% | Road | 45.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% | 7.2% | L14Days | ||||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 15.8% | Season | 22.4% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 13.5% | Home | 21.7% | 7.2% | 20.9% | 16.7% | L14Days | 26.1% | 6.5% | 41.7% | 16.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 14.6% | Season | 20.5% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 27.0% | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 9.4% | L14Days | 20.8% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 32.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 10.1% | Season | 22.0% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 7.5% | Home | 22.2% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 5.0% | L14Days | 21.2% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 21.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 20.3% | Season | 14.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 33.3% | Home | 15.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 21.2% | L14Days | 16.1% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 50.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 16.3% | Season | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | Road | 18.5% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 18.4% | L14Days | 22.0% | 7.3% | 16.7% | 32.1% |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 15.8% | 10.5% | 21.5% | Season | 15.8% | 10.5% | 21.5% | Home | L14Days | ||||||||||
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | Season | 25.8% | 4.3% | 12.1% | 9.9% | Home | 27.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | L14Days | 29.3% | 1.7% | 7.7% | 17.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | Season | 31.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | Home | 27.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 13.1% | L14Days | 30.2% | 5.7% | 13.6% | 21.2% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% | Season | 20.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 15.5% | Road | 24.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.5% | L14Days | 13.7% | 11.8% | 31.5% | |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 5.9% | 13.5% | 12.5% | Season | 21.1% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 16.6% | Road | 19.0% | 6.2% | 16.3% | 16.8% | L14Days | 19.6% | 3.9% | 11.1% | 18.4% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.9% | Season | 19.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 13.6% | Road | 19.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 12.1% | L14Days | 23.4% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 27.6% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 14.1% | 5.9% | 15.3% | 28.2% | Season | 14.2% | 5.6% | 18.7% | 35.1% | Road | 18.0% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 31.6% | L14Days | 15.6% | 4.4% | 33.3% | 41.6% |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | Season | 21.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | Road | 25.5% | 2.1% | 12.5% | 17.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 5.0% | 20.0% | |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 14.8% | Season | 21.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 15.0% | Home | 24.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | L14Days | 29.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 7.1% | Season | 14.7% | 6.6% | 9.8% | -2.0% | Home | 14.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.1% | L14Days | 10.9% | 4.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 9.2% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 7.9% | Season | 8.8% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 6.9% | Road | 4.4% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | L14Days | 8.8% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 12.8% | Season | 21.7% | 11.3% | 21.9% | 29.9% | Road | 30.9% | 7.0% | 16.2% | 7.1% | L14Days | ||||
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 13.9% | Season | 15.4% | 9.5% | 16.3% | 16.9% | Home | 18.7% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 17.9% | L14Days | 15.7% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 34.2% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 19.8% | Season | 28.3% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 15.6% | Home | 27.8% | 9.0% | 21.7% | 18.7% | L14Days | 22.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 22.0% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 10.9% | LH | 20.5% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 13.5% | 9.7% | 17.6% | 27.1% |
| Indians | Home | 20.0% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 29.5% | LH | 19.6% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 19.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 18.5% |
| Twins | Home | 22.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 21.3% | LH | 24.0% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 23.1% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 25.1% | LH | 21.0% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 16.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 29.3% |
| Giants | Home | 23.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 23.5% | RH | 24.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 19.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.3% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 12.6% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.3% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 14.0% | RH | 23.5% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 18.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 22.0% | RH | 20.5% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 17.4% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.1% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.6% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 25.7% | LH | 24.4% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 26.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 21.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.7% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 18.2% | RH | 25.0% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 19.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.1% | 19.3% | 37.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | RH | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 19.7% |
| Mets | Road | 22.1% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 21.5% | RH | 21.6% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 18.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.2% | 19.3% | 25.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 17.3% | LH | 19.0% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 20.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.4% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 11.6% | RH | 24.7% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 16.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 15.9% | RH | 25.7% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 21.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 21.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.8% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 12.3% | LH | 22.4% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 19.0% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 27.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.3% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.9% | RH | 24.9% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 2.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.9% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 17.7% | RH | 18.8% | 8.4% | 15.2% | 18.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Road | 24.0% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 14.8% | RH | 22.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 16.5% | L7Days | 29.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 16.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 8.6% | RH | 26.7% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.2% | 11.4% | 20.7% | 9.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 11.6% | 17.5% | 20.0% | LH | 23.3% | 11.3% | 18.5% | 21.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 24.7% |
| Reds | Home | 23.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 21.0% | LH | 21.9% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 22.5% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% |
| Angels | Home | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 20.7% | RH | 19.9% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 21.8% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 30.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.2% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 15.7% | RH | 23.8% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 17.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.3% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.8% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 17.4% | RH | 25.0% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.8% | 5.6% | 10.3% | -2.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 19.1% | LH | 22.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 17.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.9% | 17.0% | 27.7% |
| Padres | Home | 24.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 17.6% | RH | 25.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 15.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 20.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | LH | 21.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 14.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 15.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 14.1% | RH | 21.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 19.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 14.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.8% | 18.4% | RH | 23.0% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 21.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.5% | 18.0% | 28.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | 27.8% | 13.1% | 2.12 | 31.0% | 13.3% | 2.33 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.4% | 10.7% | 2.19 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 2.19 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 34.0% | 15.4% | 2.21 | 32.3% | 14.0% | 2.31 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 23.2% | 11.8% | 1.97 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 1.78 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.7% | 10.8% | 1.82 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.04 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 13.0% | 8.6% | 1.51 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 1.47 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 18.4% | 11.2% | 1.64 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 1.64 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 27.8% | 15.6% | 1.78 | 28.7% | 17.4% | 1.65 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.3% | 6.6% | 2.77 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.72 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 15.4% | 10.6% | 1.45 | |||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 45.0% | 15.6% | 2.88 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 1.80 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.33 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 20.5% | 8.9% | 2.30 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.07 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.0% | 9.5% | 2.32 | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.28 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 14.9% | 9.1% | 1.64 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 2.11 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.86 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 2.35 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | 15.8% | 11.1% | 1.42 | 15.8% | 11.1% | 1.42 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 25.8% | 11.8% | 2.19 | 29.3% | 12.9% | 2.27 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 31.7% | 12.8% | 2.48 | 29.3% | 11.7% | 2.50 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 20.3% | 9.6% | 2.11 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.48 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 2.24 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 19.3% | 9.7% | 1.99 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 2.16 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.18 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 2.15 |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | 21.4% | 11.0% | 1.95 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 2.94 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 21.9% | 11.3% | 1.94 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.14 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 14.7% | 10.5% | 1.40 | 17.0% | 11.3% | 1.50 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 8.8% | 6.1% | 1.44 | 8.8% | 6.1% | 1.44 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 21.7% | 7.2% | 3.01 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 15.4% | 6.2% | 2.48 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 2.08 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 28.3% | 11.5% | 2.46 | 30.4% | 12.9% | 2.36 |
There’s really a lot less to see here than it seems. Many of today’s pitchers have made fewer than five starts and a lot of other pitchers who are out of range are not of much interest.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.58 | 3.50 | 0.92 | 2.58 | 0.87 | 3.54 | 0.96 | 2.70 | 0.12 | 1.57 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.81 | 1.24 | 3.09 | 1.52 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 3.60 | 4.30 | 0.70 | 3.60 | 1.51 | 6.89 | 3.29 | 8.10 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 4.30 | 0.70 | 5.11 | 1.51 | 6.89 | 3.29 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 2.75 | 2.71 | -0.04 | 2.75 | 0.06 | 2.79 | 0.04 | 2.47 | -0.28 | 3.66 | 3.02 | -0.64 | 2.85 | -0.81 | 2.90 | -0.76 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 3.69 | 4.08 | 0.39 | 3.69 | 0.54 | 5.35 | 1.66 | 6.33 | 2.64 | 4.01 | 4.43 | 0.42 | 4.51 | 0.50 | 6.24 | 2.23 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.23 | 4.93 | 0.70 | 4.23 | 0.48 | 5.69 | 1.46 | 4.11 | -0.12 | 4.74 | 4.10 | -0.64 | 3.88 | -0.86 | 5.00 | 0.26 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 4.13 | 5.54 | 1.41 | 4.13 | 1.69 | 6.37 | 2.24 | 7.72 | 3.59 | 4.05 | 5.81 | 1.76 | 6.05 | 2.00 | 6.84 | 2.79 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 4.34 | 4.39 | 0.05 | 4.34 | 0.25 | 3.89 | -0.45 | 5.51 | 1.17 | 4.34 | 4.39 | 0.05 | 4.59 | 0.25 | 3.89 | -0.45 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 5.23 | 3.53 | -1.70 | 5.23 | -1.53 | 4.27 | -0.96 | 3.01 | -2.22 | 6.11 | 3.29 | -2.82 | 3.56 | -2.55 | 4.66 | -1.45 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 6.20 | 4.98 | -1.22 | 6.20 | -1.30 | 5.22 | -0.98 | 6.24 | 0.04 | 4.50 | 4.90 | 0.40 | 4.78 | 0.28 | 4.51 | 0.01 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 10.13 | 3.93 | -6.20 | 10.13 | -4.88 | 11.34 | 1.21 | 3.96 | -6.17 | |||||||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 3.72 | 3.59 | -0.13 | 3.72 | -1.37 | 3.19 | -0.53 | 2.46 | -1.26 | 9.00 | 7.79 | -1.21 | 5.9 | -3.10 | 8.34 | -0.66 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 5.13 | 4.15 | -0.98 | 5.13 | -1.01 | 4.76 | -0.37 | 4.04 | -1.09 | 5.10 | 3.85 | -1.25 | 4.13 | -0.97 | 5.59 | 0.49 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 5.71 | 4.63 | -1.08 | 5.71 | -0.92 | 5.06 | -0.65 | 6.02 | 0.31 | 4.58 | 4.34 | -0.24 | 4.02 | -0.56 | 3.85 | -0.73 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.94 | 3.77 | -0.17 | 3.94 | -0.26 | 3.70 | -0.24 | 3.15 | -0.79 | 3.90 | 3.37 | -0.53 | 3.24 | -0.66 | 2.94 | -0.96 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 5.00 | 4.78 | -0.22 | 5.00 | -0.15 | 4.02 | -0.98 | 5.80 | 0.80 | 2.84 | 3.95 | 1.11 | 4.2 | 1.36 | 2.81 | -0.03 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 7.39 | 4.52 | -2.87 | 7.39 | -2.68 | 5.58 | -1.81 | 5.70 | -1.69 | 3.91 | 3.80 | -0.11 | 3.83 | -0.08 | 3.83 | -0.08 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | 0.00 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 0.00 | 5.88 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 4.06 | 4.06 | 0.00 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 3.09 | 3.09 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 3.51 | 3.29 | -0.22 | 3.51 | -0.13 | 3.33 | -0.18 | 3.39 | -0.12 | 2.72 | 2.90 | 0.18 | 3.03 | 0.31 | 2.76 | 0.04 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.61 | 3.02 | 1.41 | 1.61 | 1.98 | 2.48 | 0.87 | 2.28 | 0.67 | 2.84 | 3.33 | 0.49 | 3.89 | 1.05 | 3.22 | 0.38 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.52 | 4.30 | -0.22 | 4.52 | -0.41 | 3.69 | -0.83 | 3.88 | -0.64 | 4.78 | 4.35 | -0.43 | 3.87 | -0.91 | 4.42 | -0.36 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 3.42 | 3.73 | 0.31 | 3.42 | 0.01 | 3.20 | -0.22 | 3.52 | 0.10 | 1.65 | 3.99 | 2.34 | 3.7 | 2.05 | 3.00 | 1.35 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 3.23 | 4.76 | 1.53 | 3.23 | 1.75 | 3.87 | 0.64 | 5.86 | 2.63 | 3.29 | 5.77 | 2.48 | 5.66 | 2.37 | 5.07 | 1.78 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 4.09 | 4.76 | 0.67 | 4.09 | 0.56 | 5.56 | 1.47 | 4.51 | 0.42 | 4.13 | 4.60 | 0.47 | 4.4 | 0.27 | 4.86 | 0.73 |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | 2.57 | 3.62 | 1.05 | 2.57 | 0.43 | 2.61 | 0.04 | 4.16 | 1.59 | 0.00 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.15 | 4.10 | 0.95 | 3.15 | 0.79 | 3.35 | 0.20 | 3.49 | 0.34 | 3.69 | 4.16 | 0.47 | 4.18 | 0.49 | 4.07 | 0.38 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 3.31 | 4.01 | 0.70 | 3.31 | 0.88 | 3.89 | 0.58 | 3.68 | 0.37 | 3.00 | 3.99 | 0.99 | 4.11 | 1.11 | 3.39 | 0.39 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 11.05 | 4.56 | -6.49 | 11.05 | -6.63 | 4.86 | -6.19 | 4.57 | -6.48 | 11.05 | 4.57 | -6.48 | 4.42 | -6.63 | 4.86 | -6.19 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 6.20 | 4.65 | -1.55 | 6.20 | -1.44 | 6.33 | 0.13 | 4.42 | -1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.09 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.67 | 5.02 | -0.65 | 5.67 | -0.85 | 5.35 | -0.32 | 6.29 | 0.62 | 6.99 | 4.78 | -2.21 | 4.47 | -2.52 | 5.56 | -1.43 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 4.74 | 3.47 | -1.27 | 4.74 | -1.20 | 3.54 | -1.20 | 3.09 | -1.65 | 5.40 | 3.25 | -2.15 | 3.01 | -2.39 | 2.64 | -2.76 |
Blake Snell has a .237 BABIP and 84.4 LOB%.
Dan Straily has a .256 BABIP, 80.2 LOB% and 20 HR/FB. The latter is going to be very difficult to sustain in Miami, but he’s trying, considering his Statcast numbers.
Domingo German has a 66 LOB%. His 17.0 HR/FB is a bit high, but the low strand rate is the thing you really like to see with these guys that have potential and especially his swing and miss stuff because it’s something that generally fixes itself. He’s not allowing too much hard contact, which is good.
Justin Verlander has a .212 BABIP, 87.4 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB. None of them would seem sustainable.
Vince Velasquez has a 65.1 LOB%. The .317 BABIP is a bit high, especially for his profile, but the defense is not a friend. Remember what we just said about strand rate two pitchers up.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.273 | 0.237 | -0.036 | 40.5% | 21.8% | 9.6% | 82.4% | 35.4% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.192 | -0.099 | 44.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 88.1% | 47.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.290 | 0.271 | -0.019 | 42.7% | 19.2% | 16.0% | 78.0% | 30.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.255 | -0.049 | 41.5% | 22.5% | 9.4% | 84.3% | 33.9% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.290 | 0.256 | -0.034 | 32.0% | 32.0% | 6.7% | 87.1% | 43.2% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.324 | 0.242 | -0.082 | 35.5% | 15.0% | 9.4% | 90.1% | 42.8% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.295 | 0.339 | 0.044 | 37.1% | 24.2% | 16.7% | 85.9% | 40.6% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.277 | 0.282 | 0.005 | 39.3% | 22.9% | 9.4% | 79.1% | 29.0% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.301 | 0.388 | 0.087 | 34.0% | 29.3% | 3.6% | 87.4% | 44.0% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.296 | 0.333 | 0.037 | 45.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.9% | 45.8% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.270 | 0.231 | -0.039 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 33.3% | 70.5% | 43.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.310 | 0.316 | 0.006 | 43.8% | 21.9% | 9.3% | 87.7% | 40.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.315 | 0.011 | 41.7% | 18.3% | 7.1% | 91.9% | 37.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.296 | 0.288 | -0.008 | 50.9% | 17.1% | 5.6% | 86.9% | 32.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.309 | 0.312 | 0.003 | 37.6% | 22.3% | 5.2% | 89.0% | 35.9% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.305 | 0.352 | 0.047 | 36.3% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 86.0% | 29.4% |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | 0.279 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 77.8% | 33.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.295 | 0.255 | -0.040 | 40.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 85.4% | 30.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.271 | 0.212 | -0.059 | 27.8% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 81.3% | 34.7% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.307 | 0.022 | 42.7% | 23.2% | 16.0% | 85.5% | 43.1% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.293 | 0.332 | 0.039 | 46.8% | 27.9% | 6.8% | 86.4% | 30.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.284 | 0.232 | -0.052 | 30.3% | 22.7% | 10.1% | 86.3% | 38.5% |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.278 | 0.244 | -0.034 | 41.8% | 22.1% | 9.3% | 91.7% | 39.9% |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | 0.281 | 0.328 | 0.047 | 45.3% | 34.4% | 0.0% | 89.3% | 32.7% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 45.8% | 18.5% | 10.1% | 84.3% | 34.7% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.262 | 0.242 | -0.020 | 62.0% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 86.4% | 26.5% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.272 | 0.357 | 0.085 | 58.6% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 93.6% | 37.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.291 | 0.329 | 0.038 | 32.9% | 23.3% | 9.4% | 83.3% | 41.7% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.297 | 0.278 | -0.019 | 44.8% | 22.0% | 13.8% | 94.0% | 36.2% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.302 | 0.317 | 0.015 | 39.6% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 81.4% | 39.1% |
Blake Snell has a great Z-Contact%, but probably not enough to support this BABIP, though it’s not that terribly far from his defense.
Dan Straily has a career .264 BABIP, but also a career 20.1 LD%. This is not to say he’ll sustain either this season, but that combination (massive line drive rate, low BABIP) generally doesn’t last.
Justin Verlander has an amazing BABIP profile. Lots of popups and few line drives along with lots of swings and misses in the zone. Still, his BABIP is .212. There have been five qualified pitchers below that number since 1910, the last 30 years ago.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.295 | -0.028 | 0.312 | 0.001 | 0.260 | -0.011 | 0.300 | 85.8 | 6.3 | 25.700 | 222 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.382 | -0.054 | 0.300 | 0.015 | 0.382 | -0.054 | -0.800 | 92 | 10.3 | 48.300 | 29 |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | 0.264 | -0.006 | 0.252 | -0.001 | 0.284 | -0.023 | -1.100 | 84.8 | 8.3 | 27.600 | 217 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.360 | -0.029 | 0.333 | -0.036 | 0.370 | -0.025 | -0.300 | 88.7 | 9.7 | 38.700 | 238 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.420 | -0.077 | 0.337 | -0.012 | 0.406 | -0.092 | -0.400 | 89.4 | 10.8 | 43.100 | 130 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.358 | -0.011 | 0.341 | 0.021 | 0.364 | 0.001 | -1.300 | 89 | 11.2 | 43.900 | 107 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.346 | 0.001 | 0.307 | -0.032 | 0.346 | 0.001 | 0.100 | 89.2 | 1.6 | 42.200 | 64 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.304 | 0.006 | 0.301 | -0.022 | 0.303 | 0.032 | -1.100 | 87.8 | 5.7 | 35.700 | 140 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.374 | 0.028 | 0.389 | 0.067 | 0.362 | 0.019 | -0.700 | 88.5 | 7.1 | 31.600 | 155 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.378 | 0.129 | 0.282 | 0.072 | -0.900 | ||||||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.295 | -0.032 | 0.295 | -0.032 | 0.449 | -0.015 | 1.500 | ||||
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.312 | 0.033 | 0.327 | 0.034 | 0.303 | 0.033 | -1.600 | 88.2 | 5.4 | 36.000 | 222 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.360 | 0.001 | 0.330 | -0.006 | 0.350 | -0.044 | -0.700 | 90.7 | 9.6 | 43.800 | 178 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.281 | 0.010 | 0.308 | 0.029 | 0.244 | 0.039 | -0.100 | 86.7 | 4.4 | 32.900 | 228 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.391 | -0.065 | 0.363 | -0.050 | 0.360 | -0.053 | 0.300 | 89 | 9.3 | 39.500 | 291 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.363 | 0.029 | 0.351 | -0.007 | 0.288 | 0.002 | -0.900 | 85.6 | 7.8 | 29.300 | 116 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | Nationals | 0.256 | 0.017 | 0.256 | 0.017 | 0.200 | ||||||
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.293 | -0.026 | 0.260 | -0.025 | 0.300 | -0.035 | -0.500 | 85.7 | 6.2 | 29.800 | 242 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.236 | -0.019 | 0.289 | -0.055 | 0.228 | 0.026 | -1.100 | 87.4 | 5.6 | 31.200 | 234 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.336 | -0.027 | 0.312 | -0.004 | 0.392 | -0.036 | -0.600 | 86.2 | 6.2 | 32.400 | 225 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.331 | -0.020 | 0.354 | -0.011 | 0.285 | -0.035 | -0.600 | 87.8 | 5.1 | 34.900 | 235 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.301 | -0.031 | 0.329 | 0.020 | 0.322 | -0.038 | -0.800 | 86.8 | 4.7 | 28.600 | 213 |
| Matt Koch | Diamondbacks | 0.424 | -0.090 | 0.471 | -0.123 | 0.424 | -0.096 | -0.600 | 90.6 | 14.2 | 44.100 | 211 |
| Michael Soroka | Braves | 0.336 | -0.049 | 0.352 | -0.022 | 0.237 | -0.159 | -1.800 | 87 | 7.7 | 32.300 | 65 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.299 | -0.010 | 0.346 | -0.020 | 0.281 | 0.041 | 0.400 | 85.8 | 5.5 | 30.700 | 254 |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | 0.293 | -0.029 | 0.314 | -0.006 | 0.281 | -0.051 | -0.500 | 85.7 | 3.9 | 34.000 | 153 |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | 0.326 | 0.076 | 0.317 | -0.068 | 0.326 | 0.076 | -0.500 | 82.5 | 3.4 | 27.600 | 29 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.422 | -0.027 | 0.287 | 0.029 | null | -0.600 | 85.7 | 13.0 | 40.300 | 77 | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.369 | -0.025 | 0.323 | 0.014 | 0.390 | -0.033 | -1.000 | 89.2 | 8.7 | 36.800 | 242 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.292 | 0.024 | 0.337 | 0.041 | 0.294 | 0.011 | 0.000 | 88.3 | 7.0 | 37.200 | 199 |
This board can be a bit difficult to navigate today with eight guys having started fewer than five games, six of them three or fewer this year. For example, Derrick Rodriguez has a 1.6% Barrels/BBE, but 42.2% 95+ mph EV. Those two things generally don’t match up and would make me a bit skeptical on the Barrels going forward (not that anyone can sustain that rate).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This board shapes up a bit better beyond the top two than I would have initially thought. I have four pitchers tied for third best overall arm below. Some of them (Taillon) have smaller outcome ranges, some have much wider (German), but they all average out about the same for me in tonight’s respective matchups.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1t) is very costly, but is not the most expensive pitcher on the board and may combine the most upside with the least risk in a favorable spot.
Domingo German (3t) has shown a ton of upside and still costs less than $8K because he’s had problems stranding runners. Hosting the Mariners is not a favorable spot at all, but he’s easily been a $10K pitcher by peripherals, especially recently (22.6 K-BB% last four starts).
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon (3t) has been very quietly ascending over the last month. It’s not going to blow anyone away, but all of his numbers are improving and he’s going deeper into games more consistently, while still costing around $8K in a spot that may even be slightly better than neutral.
Justin Verlander (1t) is really expensive on DraftKings ($13.3K) and strikeouts are down over the last month. Though it’s just below 30%, while his xwOBA is down also and he’s facing an offense that has struck out more than any team in the majors over the last week. I actually have nearly no preference between he and Sale for the same cost on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Vince Velasquez (3t) is occasionally going to be money lit on fire, but the good part of that is it helps keep his cost below $9K in nice spots like this one because he’s really been a high quality pitcher most often this season.
Derek Rodriguez has shown some competence and that’s generally enough at a low cost against the Marlins, especially in such a favorable park.
Luke Weaver is a league average pitcher by almost every metric even if his most recent performances have been a bit worse than that. He’s only going to give you five innings, but there still may be some value (especially for $6.5K on FanDuel) in that in a high upside spot in Philly.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Blake Snell (3t) for $9.5K or less may still have some value in Houston. He’s one of the top pitchers on the board overall.
Michael Soroka is a very talented young man with whom the Braves are being reasonably cautious and that probably caps his upside in Toronto tonight, making him a difficult roster for $8.9K on DraftKings, though a more reasonable $7.2K on FanDuel. It’ll be tough to get that six innings for the quality start out of him, but he should be competent or better while he’s in there.
Dan Straily is cheap and can miss a few bats in a favorable spot where the hard contact is less of a concern, though still not absent from decision making entirely.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.