Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 21st
Last night was ruined for many with a Strasburg scratch after every other game had locked, but perhaps the DFS Gods are making it up to us with another great board today (six double digit pitchers), though we’ll probably end up paying dearly for this gluttony of talented arms at some point this week. No need to look forward yet though, let’s just enjoy what we have on Tuesday.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
Editor’s Note: Bartolo Colon will now start instead of Syndergaard against the Royals tonight.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -1 | 3.33 | 6. | 1.78 | 1.03 | 3.28 | 4.12 | MIN | 91 | 88 | 84 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.1 | 3.97 | 6.56 | 1.65 | 1.03 | 4.11 | 3.03 | CHC | 109 | 108 | 142 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -4.7 | 4.14 | 5.71 | 1.34 | 1.07 | 4.51 | 6.38 | TEX | 99 | 91 | 104 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -4 | 4.21 | 4.05 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 3.64 | 4.91 | CLE | 125 | 95 | 136 |
| Bud Norris | ATL | 3.2 | 4.02 | 5.24 | 1.31 | 1 | 4.85 | 2.55 | FLA | 89 | 98 | 115 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 2.5 | 4.13 | 5.68 | 1.8 | 1.02 | 4.34 | 2.67 | NYY | 99 | 87 | 102 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.6 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 2.86 | 3.16 | BOS | 118 | 116 | 93 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 4.6 | 3.92 | 6.31 | 1.35 | 1.07 | 4.21 | 3.83 | CHW | 85 | 84 | 83 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 10.9 | 4.36 | 6.32 | 0.78 | 1.07 | 4.7 | 4.89 | CIN | 80 | 81 | 55 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 2.1 | 3.7 | 6.17 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 3.8 | 3.42 | ANA | 98 | 98 | 117 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 10.8 | 2.89 | 6.99 | 1.35 | 1.03 | 3.42 | 3.12 | TAM | 114 | 94 | 82 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 1 | 4.48 | 5.27 | 0.64 | 1.01 | 5.02 | 4.52 | HOU | 100 | 97 | 135 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.5 | 3.81 | 5.82 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 4.53 | 5.15 | NYM | 92 | 98 | 94 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0 | 4.26 | 5.6 | 1.78 | 1.02 | 4.63 | 4.12 | COL | 87 | 96 | 109 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.5 | 4.08 | 5.39 | 1.78 | 1.01 | 3.94 | 3.06 | DET | 115 | 102 | 122 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 9.8 | 3.7 | 5.59 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 3.91 | 3.88 | STL | 117 | 119 | 77 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.5 | 4.16 | 5.89 | 1.64 | 0.95 | 4.85 | 5.32 | OAK | 80 | 82 | 45 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 7 | 3.62 | 6.92 | 1.3 | 0.95 | 3.7 | 2.25 | PIT | 116 | 105 | 72 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 1.4 | 2.62 | 6.05 | 1.22 | 1 | 2.34 | 2.12 | ATL | 75 | 78 | 113 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -7 | 3.77 | 6.55 | 0.82 | 1.01 | 4.11 | 3.63 | SEA | 110 | 117 | 112 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.7 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 2.69 | 1.04 | 3.73 | 2.72 | BAL | 108 | 114 | 114 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.4 | 4.41 | 6.23 | 0.65 | 1.02 | 4.8 | 4.06 | ARI | 103 | 90 | 105 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -4.8 | 2.75 | 6.32 | 1.57 | 0.87 | 2.33 | 2.97 | KAN | 88 | 95 | 135 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -6.5 | 3.83 | 5.67 | 1.71 | 1.02 | 3.64 | 4.01 | TOR | 111 | 98 | 170 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | -0.9 | 4 | 5.74 | 1.08 | 0.9 | 3.86 | 4.85 | WAS | 100 | 114 | 76 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -12.3 | 3.86 | 6.46 | 1.88 | 0.95 | 4.05 | 4.34 | MIL | 84 | 91 | 84 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 6.6 | 4.1 | 6.07 | 1.41 | 0.9 | 4.02 | 3.75 | LOS | 92 | 93 | 121 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -5.9 | 3.89 | 5.71 | 1.64 | 1.03 | 3.7 | 4.89 | PHI | 77 | 71 | 27 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -4.5 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.04 | 4.96 | 4.93 | SDG | 84 | 75 | 114 |
| Wilfredo Boscan | PIT | 1.7 | 5.18 | 1.29 | 0.95 | 5.43 | SFO | 90 | 102 | 116 |
Aaron Nola was thrashed for eight runs in three innings by a red hot Toronto lineup after being hyped up in this space last week. Interestingly, he did strike out five of 20 batters and only allowed six of 11 batted balls off the ground, but two of them left the yard and he walked three. He still remains top 10 in the majors in K-BB (21% – 10th), GB rate (54.5% – eighth), and weak contact (25.6% – fourth). He finally adds a favorable matchup to all that. The Twins have a 14.7 K-BB% vs RHP.
Chad Bettis has had road starts in Arizona twice, St Louis, and Boston of his eight this year, so of course he’s not fared much better than away from home, but a 51.0 GB% and low walk rate (5.5%) has kept his ERA estimators not too much higher than league average despite the low strikeout rate, though his SwStr% has been trending up over the last month. The long ball is a concern in Yankee Stadium for a pitcher with a 16.6 Hard-Soft% and 17.1 HR/FB, but it can’t treat him much worse than Coors where he just pitched well against this same offense (6 IP – 2 ER – 0 BB – 5 K).
Chris Sale didn’t pitch poorly against Detroit in his last start, allowing three runs in seven innings, but striking out at least seven for the fifth time in six starts. While some may see an increasing ERA, I’m more focused on a SwStr rate above 11% in three of his last four starts, though a hard contact rate above 30% in each of those outings is not really optimal. Unfortunately, he travels to Boston for tonight’s worst possible matchup, but should not be entirely written off.
Collin McHugh is coming off a masterpiece in St Louis (6.2 IP – 1 ER – 2 BB – 6 K) and aside from a .359 BABIP with no basis in his batted ball or contact numbers, he’s been pitching quite well lately, striking out at least six in five of his last six starts. His 15.8 K-BB% is well above average and his hard contact rate is below 30%. The Angels are an average matchup, but have the lowest strikeout rate in the league (15.8% vs RHP).
Corey Kluber allowed eight runs in Kansas City last time out and always seems to struggle when he falls on our days, but still struck out seven of 27 batters and wasn’t a complete washout. While his run of starts with at least six runs was interrupted, it was his seventh straight start and 12 in 14 with at least six strikeouts. Most of his rates look to be close enough to career rates with estimators about a quarter of a run higher despite a high ERA, which he’s dealt with before. He faces a Tampa Bay offense with power (16.9 HR/FB on the road, 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but they also have a 25.1 K% vs RHP.
James Paxton has an elite 23.0 K-BB% through four starts, throwing harder than every starter not named Syndergaard. Unfortunately, the contact that is being made is generally hit very hard (26.6 LD%, 17.6 HR/FB, 7.7 Soft%), though half of his 14 runs have been unearned and his .403 BABIP not much affecting his ERA. The strikeouts are the most important thing. He faces a tough right-handed Detroit lineup, which hurts his usability a little bit today.
Jose Fernandez is one of tonight’s top two pitchers in one of tonight’s better matchups, but Atlanta has looked like a real offense recently. Not that a 113 wRC+ over the last week should in any way stop us here, but they might only be a great matchup and not the absolute best spot tonight. A 29.5 K-BB% for Fernandez is second best in baseball and he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts to get his walk rate down to 7.9% for the season. His 15.0 SwStr% is third best in the majors.
Editor’s Note: Bartolo Colon will now start instead of Syndergaard against the Royals tonight.
Noah Syndergaard started his rampage in the second game of the season, striking out nine of 23 Royals in Kansas City and this is still an offense with below average power than doesn’t take walks, but now they strike out at a league average rate as well. He has a 28.3 K-BB% that’s third best in baseball with the second best SwStr% (15.1), but adds a top 15 GB rate (53.4%) and 7.5 Hard-Soft%.
Tyler Duffey is where some will stop reading today. Enough with him already. The peripherals look great or are actually league average now (13.7 K-BB%) with three walks and just five strikeouts over his last 50 batters, but he’s got tonight’s top matchup against the Phillies (16.0 K-BB%, 26.3 Hard% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Johnny Cueto (.282 BABIP – 78.8 LOB% – 3.9 HR/FB) is doing it with HR suppression this year, which might work in San Francisco, but not to this level and he’s not in San Francisco tonight. Pittsburgh will suppress RH power to maybe even a greater level, but with a strikeout rate not much above average, you’re paying a lot for a lack of HRs against an offense that isn’t that bad, though cold (25.9 K-BB% last seven days). This is the most difficult cut today. If I went five tiers deep below, he’d head the fifth. I actually have him rated somewhere between the fourth and sixth best overall pitcher today, but far behind the three other guys with a double digit price tag (or very close to it) on both sites.
Jason Hammel (.250 BABIP – 84.7 LOB% – 8.0 HR/FB) is in a tough spot at a cost above $8K and will be pulled early if his team trails with an opportunity to pinch-hit for him. His 13.3 K-BB% is only league average this year, his worst since leaving Colorado, but he’s been bailed out by an excellent defense. They’ll be there tonight and we’ll even grant him the BABIP for now, but that doesn’t entirely explain a strand rate 13+ points above his career rate and a career low HR rate.
Colby Lewis (.234 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 9.6 HR/FB) took a no-hitter into the ninth in his last start. He struck out four of 30 batters with just 8% weak contact in that game.
Marco Estrada (.188 BABIP – 81.9 LOB% – 9.0 HR/FB) is in a marginal spot and might pitch well, but you’re paying over $11K on DraftKings for BABIP suppression and a league average 12.2 K-BB%. He’s shown some BABIP suppression skills, but is still 65 points off his career rate.
Jimmy Nelson (.279 BABIP – 75.3 LOB% – 15.8 HR/FB) is in a great spot, but has just an 8.5 K-BB%. None of his quoted numbers are too far off, but 14% of his runs have been unearned. He still has a 5.5 K-BB% vs LHBs with a 36.9 Hard%, but has been bailed out a bit by a .228 BABIP. The only road start in the last four where he hasn’t allowed at least six runs was in Atlanta.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Bud Norris has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters and hasn’t allowed a HR since April in over 35 innings. In sort of a neutral matchup, he might even make the fourth tier cut on a weak day at a low price and I wouldn’t hate using him for the near minimum in your secondary DraftKings slot.
Tanner Roark with a league average strikeout rate is enough of an accomplishment. He’s dominating contact with a -9.2 Hard-Soft% and has a favorable matchup on the road in L.A. tonight, but it’s a tougher profile to pay up for on a great pitching day.
Sonny Gray had his first poor start since returning from injury against Texas last time out, but has struck out just 12 of 74 batters through three starts with a 39.0% hard contact rate. Milwaukee should help him generate more strikeouts (25.7% vs RHP), but that’s already well baked into a rising FanDuel price. Less than $7K on DraftKings may still be viable, though no great deal considering his performance this season.
Scott Kazmir has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced over the last month, but has walked 10% as well and has not gotten past five innings in any of his last three starts. Perhaps he benefits from going after Kershaw, but he faces a tough offense vs LHP (16.1 HR/FB), though his own early HR issues seem to be solved without a single one over his last five starts.
Clay Buchholz has been pitching out of the bullpen since the end of May without exciting results (9.1 IP – 3 ER – 6 BB – 7 K – 39 BF), but does have a favorable matchup against the White Sox at home for a low price and a 9.2 SwStr% right at his career rate.
Ian Kennedy is in a low run environment on the road, but a power neutral park against an offense with a 14.9 HR/FB and 16.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. He’s allowed eight HRs over his last three starts.
Patrick Corbin has estimators and a strikeout rate that says he’s been pitching better, but this is not a good time to be traveling to Toronto.
Ivan Nova is generating more strikeouts (18.3%), but fewer ground balls as a starter (53.4%) with 21.4% of his fly balls leaving the yard. While you want to say that’s going to regress, this is a tough park and an offense with some power (14.2 HR/FB on the road, 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP, 16.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Justin Verlander allowed four runs in his last start, but still struck out seven of 30. His placement today is not a strike against his performance, but more one against his high cost in a difficult matchup. His $9.2K price on FanDuel would see about right with DraftKings being much too aggressive on him over the last month or so. He’s improved greatly, but it’s not 2011 again.
Adam Wainwright has made himself, but this is not a matchup I’m willing to pay more than $7K for. His success over the last month may be a bit over-stated with a .250 BABIP and below average SwStr%.
Blake Snell struggled in his second major league start against Seattle last week. He looked better in his first one back in April, but still had just a 6.7 SwStr%. Cleveland has had some issues with LHP (14.2 K-BB%), but have been the best home offense in baseball.
Luis Perdomo has an interesting SwStr% and estimators well above his ERA in a small sample, but there’s not much to be positively said here except he’s min-priced on DraftKings.
Tyler Wilson struck out a season high six of 28 Red Sox in eight shutout innings in his last start before his jersey was returned to its rightful owner. He’s in a favorable spot against San Diego tonight, but this isn’t Petco and his previous high in strikeouts this season is four. The Padres are out of the bottom spot against RHP after a solid last week and are barely bottom third in the league in road offense, though they still have a K-BB around 18% in both spots.
Anthony DeSclafani has walked six and struck out just four of the 45 batters he’s faced so far against Oakland and Atlanta.
Wilfredo Boscan has not even been confirmed as of noon on Tuesday yet and hasn’t even been a starter throughout much of his minor league career. The 26 year-old rookie has a 2.0 K-BB% through 12.1 major league relief innings.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.7% | Road | 22.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 17.2% | 5.6% | Road | 18.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.9% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.0% | Road | 16.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.5% | 10.0% | Road | 31.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Bud Norris | Braves | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.5% | Road | 16.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 4.6% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.3% | Road | 17.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 5.4% | Road | 30.6% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 3.5% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.7% | Home | 19.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.9% | Home | 15.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 3.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.8% | Home | 21.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 6.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.7% | 5.0% | Home | 25.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 3.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.4% | 9.3% | Road | 18.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.3% | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.6% | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.4% | Road | 21.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 6.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.5% | Home | 21.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.4% | Road | 16.0% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.8% | Road | 19.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 1.8% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.0% | 6.7% | Home | 35.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.9% | Home | 24.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.3% | 9.8% | Road | 21.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.9% | Home | 19.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 29.1% | 4.6% | Home | 30.7% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 3.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.9% | 6.0% | Road | 19.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 9.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.0% | Home | 23.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 17.5% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.8% | Home | 17.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.9% | Road | 16.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.8% | Home | 21.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 11.4% | 6.3% | Home | 10.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Wilfredo Boscan | Pirates | L2 Years | 12.0% | 10.0% | Home | 12.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 20.3% | 7.7% | RH | 22.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 4.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.9% | 12.0% | RH | 22.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 12.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 17.9% | 7.7% | RH | 18.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.4% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.9% | LH | 21.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | RH | 18.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.0% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.6% | 5.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 9.3% | LH | 20.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 7.3% | RH | 20.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.4% |
| Reds | Road | 22.5% | 7.1% | RH | 22.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.6% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 15.8% | 7.0% | RH | 15.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 13.2% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Road | 23.8% | 8.7% | RH | 25.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.0% |
| Astros | Home | 25.5% | 10.8% | LH | 24.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 9.4% | RH | 23.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 22.2% | 7.0% | RH | 19.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.4% | 11.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.5% | 8.3% | LH | 21.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.5% | 9.3% | RH | 19.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.3% | 6.2% | RH | 18.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 13.7% | 4.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.4% | RH | 20.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 30.8% | 4.9% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 7.2% | RH | 19.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.7% | RH | 19.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.1% | 8.9% | RH | 22.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 4.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 21.2% | 7.2% | RH | 23.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 3.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 5.7% | RH | 19.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 21.3% | 9.9% | LH | 19.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.5% | 8.4% | LH | 20.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.5% | 10.0% | RH | 25.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.3% | 5.8% | RH | 22.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 4.7% |
| Padres | Road | 24.9% | 6.3% | RH | 24.1% | 6.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.4% |
| Giants | Road | 16.9% | 8.2% | RH | 16.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.6% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 2016 | 24.4% | 15.5% | -1.2% | Road | 26.1% | 7.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 40.0% | 14.8% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 2016 | 32.2% | 9.4% | 15.9% | Road | 32.3% | 14.5% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.9% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 2016 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 20.6% | Road | 28.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 12.5% | 20.6% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 40.7% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 2016 | 40.7% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Road | 41.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 26.7% |
| Bud Norris | Braves | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 2016 | 31.5% | 12.2% | 18.0% | Road | 32.6% | 15.1% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 2016 | 32.1% | 17.1% | 16.6% | Road | 30.8% | 13.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.9% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 2016 | 27.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | Road | 26.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 30.8% | 28.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 2016 | 28.4% | 13.3% | 10.4% | Home | 25.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.1% | 9.8% | 22.0% | 2016 | 37.4% | 9.6% | 24.8% | Home | 33.6% | 10.4% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 35.2% | 6.5% | 21.1% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.6% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 2016 | 28.1% | 10.9% | 10.6% | Home | 22.9% | 8.2% | 0.5% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 9.1% | 38.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2016 | 27.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | Home | 25.8% | 9.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 7.7% | 12.2% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 2016 | 33.5% | 15.1% | 16.1% | Road | 33.1% | 11.5% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 0.0% | 12.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 2016 | 35.8% | 15.7% | 17.2% | Road | 34.3% | 15.0% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 46.5% | 30.0% | 34.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.6% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 2016 | 33.2% | 20.0% | 12.6% | Home | 29.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 15.4% | 26.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 2016 | 32.3% | 17.6% | 24.6% | Road | 27.7% | 14.6% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 7.7% | 30.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 30.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 2016 | 28.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | Home | 33.6% | 13.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 16.7% | 7.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 2016 | 34.5% | 15.8% | 11.1% | Road | 30.2% | 9.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 16.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2016 | 24.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | Road | 30.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 0.0% | -5.4% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 2016 | 34.1% | 9.1% | 14.7% | Home | 29.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 16.7% | 26.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2016 | 28.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | Home | 28.4% | 7.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 32.3% | 21.9% | 15.5% | 2016 | 32.3% | 21.9% | 15.5% | Road | 34.8% | 31.3% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 16.7% | 10.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 2016 | 33.3% | 9.0% | 13.2% | Home | 27.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 25.7% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 2016 | 27.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | Home | 23.3% | 11.5% | -1.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.4% | 14.7% | 19.1% | 2016 | 39.2% | 17.3% | 23.2% | Road | 32.8% | 13.6% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.7% | 31.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.1% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 2016 | 22.0% | 15.0% | -1.4% | Home | 23.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2016 | 34.6% | 18.0% | 20.1% | Home | 26.2% | 12.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 16.7% | 31.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 10.6% | 0.2% | 2016 | 21.0% | 10.3% | -9.2% | Road | 25.7% | 14.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 7.7% | -2.6% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 2016 | 31.4% | 15.1% | 11.0% | Home | 34.2% | 13.0% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.1% | 7.1% | 15.9% | 2016 | 32.5% | 9.2% | 14.5% | Home | 28.5% | 6.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Wilfredo Boscan | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.0% | 0.0% | -15.3% | 2016 | 18.0% | 0.0% | -15.3% | Home | 17.2% | 0.0% | -17.3% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 31.8% | 11.4% | 13.9% | RH | 30.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 12.0% | 5.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.4% | 13.5% | 9.4% | RH | 31.7% | 13.7% | 13.0% | L7Days | 31.2% | 21.6% | 8.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.8% | 11.3% | 6.5% | RH | 28.4% | 12.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 34.4% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.1% | 13.5% | 16.2% | LH | 30.5% | 8.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 32.3% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.1% | 11.4% | 8.9% | RH | 29.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 34.8% | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 26.4% | 13.2% | 5.4% | RH | 25.4% | 12.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.8% | 11.7% | 15.0% | LH | 30.0% | 12.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 35.9% | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | RH | 28.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 6.0% | 15.3% |
| Reds | Road | 29.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | RH | 31.7% | 13.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Road | 29.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | RH | 30.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 12.1% | 10.0% |
| Rays | Road | 34.3% | 16.9% | 16.0% | RH | 34.3% | 15.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.0% | 18.0% |
| Astros | Home | 34.3% | 15.8% | 17.2% | LH | 33.4% | 15.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 38.6% | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 12.6% | 10.6% | RH | 34.3% | 14.9% | 16.6% | L7Days | 39.9% | 11.5% | 17.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.1% | 14.2% | 10.7% | RH | 32.3% | 14.8% | 15.0% | L7Days | 34.7% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.9% | 13.4% | 16.5% | LH | 33.1% | 13.0% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.8% | 20.3% | 13.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.8% | 14.5% | 13.1% | RH | 32.8% | 14.7% | 14.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | RH | 29.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.1% | 9.7% | 10.6% | RH | 29.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 35.3% | 14.6% | 12.2% |
| Braves | Road | 26.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | RH | 25.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | L7Days | 28.0% | 10.4% | 4.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.8% | 15.6% | 13.7% | RH | 32.9% | 16.1% | 15.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 16.4% | 13.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.8% | 15.2% | 12.0% | RH | 32.6% | 16.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.9% | 13.4% | 12.0% | RH | 33.1% | 13.0% | 14.9% | L7Days | 31.8% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| Royals | Road | 28.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | RH | 29.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 36.1% | 13.1% | 19.4% | LH | 33.4% | 13.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 39.2% | 26.0% | 20.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.8% | 15.6% | 17.9% | LH | 35.6% | 16.1% | 16.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 15.8% | 18.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.2% | 13.0% | 8.4% | RH | 31.9% | 14.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.7% | 15.6% | 13.8% | RH | 33.1% | 13.4% | 15.9% | L7Days | 37.6% | 20.6% | 24.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.3% | 11.6% | 8.3% | RH | 26.3% | 10.9% | 4.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.1% | -3.5% |
| Padres | Road | 33.2% | 13.9% | 16.3% | RH | 31.0% | 11.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% |
| Giants | Road | 32.3% | 11.8% | 12.9% | RH | 30.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 26.4% | 9.8% | 2.69 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.95 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 17.1% | 7.6% | 2.25 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.82 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 8.9% | 9.0% | 0.99 | 8.9% | 9.0% | 0.99 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 22.5% | 5.5% | 4.09 | 14.3% | 4.4% | 3.25 |
| Bud Norris | ATL | 18.3% | 7.9% | 2.32 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.40 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 16.8% | 7.9% | 2.13 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 1.72 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 24.0% | 9.6% | 2.50 | 23.0% | 10.2% | 2.25 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 15.3% | 9.2% | 1.66 | 14.8% | 10.2% | 1.45 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 15.9% | 7.9% | 2.01 | 10.6% | 6.9% | 1.54 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 21.5% | 11.0% | 1.95 | 27.3% | 13.9% | 1.96 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 24.9% | 12.1% | 2.06 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.1% | 9.8% | 2.05 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 2.22 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 1.87 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 16.7% | 9.4% | 1.78 | 20.7% | 10.6% | 1.95 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 29.0% | 11.8% | 2.46 | 29.0% | 11.8% | 2.46 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 | 19.1% | 11.0% | 1.74 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.53 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.17 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.4% | 9.5% | 2.36 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 2.69 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 37.5% | 15.0% | 2.50 | 41.2% | 15.7% | 2.62 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.0% | 11.4% | 2.28 | 27.0% | 11.7% | 2.31 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 16.3% | 9.2% | 1.77 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.74 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.26 | 19.0% | 8.1% | 2.35 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 31.9% | 15.1% | 2.11 | 32.5% | 15.7% | 2.07 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.0% | 9.3% | 1.94 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 24.9% | 10.6% | 2.35 | 33.0% | 12.3% | 2.68 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 17.9% | 8.0% | 2.24 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.03 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.95 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.42 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.58 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.03 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 1.96 |
| Wilfredo Boscan | PIT | 12.0% | 5.1% | 2.35 | 9.3% | 3.0% | 3.10 |
Aaron Nola gets a lot of called strikes, but I’m a bit hesitant to buy into anything much above 25% for a strikeout rate without a double digit SwStr%.
Chad Bettis had a double digit SwStr% in his last start against the Yankees and has been above 8% in three of his last four. That’s not spectacular, but could wind up generating a few more Ks.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.51 | 3.04 | -0.47 | 2.81 | -0.7 | 3.06 | -0.45 | 5.11 | 3.46 | -1.65 | 3.21 | -1.9 | 3.98 | -1.13 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.78 | 4.42 | -0.36 | 4.27 | -0.51 | 3.84 | -0.94 | 3 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 3.61 | 0.61 | 3.49 | 0.49 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.08 | 6.36 | 4.28 | 6.15 | 4.07 | 6.13 | 4.05 | 2.08 | 6.38 | 4.3 | 6.15 | 4.07 | 6.13 | 4.05 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 2.16 | 4.2 | 2.04 | 3.99 | 1.83 | 2.41 | 0.25 | 2.7 | 4.91 | 2.21 | 4.52 | 1.82 | 4.03 | 1.33 |
| Bud Norris | ATL | 4.81 | 4.56 | -0.25 | 4.39 | -0.42 | 4.33 | -0.48 | 2.91 | 3.97 | 1.06 | 3.53 | 0.62 | 2.62 | -0.29 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.63 | 4.14 | -1.49 | 4 | -1.63 | 4.52 | -1.11 | 9.27 | 4.52 | -4.75 | 4.68 | -4.59 | 6.4 | -2.87 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.94 | 3.59 | 0.65 | 3.68 | 0.74 | 3.42 | 0.48 | 6.07 | 3.98 | -2.09 | 3.99 | -2.08 | 4.78 | -1.29 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.86 | 5.27 | -0.59 | 5.5 | -0.36 | 5.61 | -0.25 | 5.65 | 5.02 | -0.63 | 5.32 | -0.33 | 5.85 | 0.2 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 2.81 | 4.64 | 1.83 | 4.75 | 1.94 | 4.2 | 1.39 | 2.91 | 5.38 | 2.47 | 5.4 | 2.49 | 3.69 | 0.78 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.89 | 3.92 | -0.97 | 3.98 | -0.91 | 3.7 | -1.19 | 4.5 | 3.29 | -1.21 | 3.25 | -1.25 | 3.33 | -1.17 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.23 | 3.38 | -0.85 | 3.32 | -0.91 | 2.94 | -1.29 | 4.46 | 3.16 | -1.3 | 3.06 | -1.4 | 2.6 | -1.86 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 5.3 | 4.59 | -0.71 | 4.86 | -0.44 | 5.25 | -0.05 | 8.85 | 4.47 | -4.38 | 4.52 | -4.33 | 5.29 | -3.56 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.17 | 4.27 | 0.1 | 4.76 | 0.59 | 5.27 | 1.1 | 5.86 | 4.83 | -1.03 | 5.34 | -0.52 | 7.18 | 1.32 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 4.77 | 3.71 | -1.06 | 3.82 | -0.95 | 4.6 | -0.17 | 6.3 | 3.92 | -2.38 | 3.97 | -2.33 | 4.86 | -1.44 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 2.86 | 2.99 | 0.13 | 2.59 | -0.27 | 3.08 | 0.22 | 2.86 | 2.99 | 0.13 | 2.59 | -0.27 | 3.08 | 0.22 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.26 | 4.17 | 1.91 | 4.14 | 1.88 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 2.17 | 4.23 | 2.06 | 4.34 | 2.17 | 3.75 | 1.58 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.92 | 4.66 | 0.74 | 4.58 | 0.66 | 4.94 | 1.02 | 5.81 | 4.93 | -0.88 | 5.03 | -0.78 | 5.56 | -0.25 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.1 | 3.47 | 1.37 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.46 | 0.36 | 1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.63 | 2.63 | 2.79 | 1.79 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.57 | 2.52 | -0.05 | 2.33 | -0.24 | 2.01 | -0.56 | 1.64 | 1.62 | -0.02 | 1.64 | 0 | 1.13 | -0.51 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.87 | 3.6 | -0.27 | 3.93 | 0.06 | 3.51 | -0.36 | 2.75 | 3.16 | 0.41 | 3.4 | 0.65 | 2.74 | -0.01 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 8.79 | 4.24 | -4.55 | 4.43 | -4.36 | 5.34 | -3.45 | 8.2 | 4.03 | -4.17 | 4.29 | -3.91 | 6.62 | -1.58 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.58 | 4.46 | 1.88 | 4.65 | 2.07 | 4.04 | 1.46 | 2.52 | 5.18 | 2.66 | 5.29 | 2.77 | 5.12 | 2.6 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.91 | 2.38 | 0.47 | 2.16 | 0.25 | 1.7 | -0.21 | 1.42 | 2.27 | 0.85 | 1.92 | 0.5 | 1.23 | -0.19 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.76 | 4.21 | -0.55 | 4.04 | -0.72 | 4.57 | -0.19 | 6.28 | 3.86 | -2.42 | 3.74 | -2.54 | 4.17 | -2.11 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.64 | 3.95 | -0.69 | 4.12 | -0.52 | 4.43 | -0.21 | 3.46 | 3.24 | -0.22 | 3.22 | -0.24 | 1.82 | -1.64 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 5.54 | 4.46 | -1.08 | 4.31 | -1.23 | 4.94 | -0.6 | 3.86 | 3.87 | 0.01 | 3.65 | -0.21 | 4.41 | 0.55 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.14 | 3.93 | 0.79 | 3.67 | 0.53 | 3.47 | 0.33 | 3.6 | 3.94 | 0.34 | 3.64 | 0.04 | 3.73 | 0.13 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 5.56 | 3.95 | -1.61 | 3.79 | -1.77 | 4.08 | -1.48 | 8.1 | 3.97 | -4.13 | 3.53 | -4.57 | 4.67 | -3.43 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 4.16 | 4.8 | 0.64 | 4.69 | 0.53 | 4.17 | 0.01 | 4.75 | 4.54 | -0.21 | 4.39 | -0.36 | 3.82 | -0.93 |
| Wilfredo Boscan | PIT | 2.92 | 5.18 | 2.26 | 5.25 | 2.33 | 3.37 | 0.45 | 3.48 | 5.74 | 2.26 | 5.72 | 2.24 | 3.81 | 0.33 |
Aaron Nola – A 66.7 LOB% and 15.5 HR/FB have his ERA about a half run or more above his estimators. Throw in a .400 BABIP and increase it to a 20.0 HR/FB over the last month with a 50.0 GB% and 1.2 Hard-Soft%.
Chad Bettis has a .328 BABIP this year and through 262.2 career innings. That might just be a Coors thing. His 65.2 LOB% and 17.1 HR/FB both of room to improve, though it’s questionable how much in his current environment.
Chris Sale is closing in on his estimators, but I believe they’ll actually drop as he gets back to missing bats again. His BABIP is soaring upwards, at .262 now and .391 over the last month, but still below his .290 career mark.
Collin McHugh has a .359 BABIP with a 1.16 GB/FB near his career rate (1.24) and the lowest line drive rate (18.8%) of his career so far. His hard contact rate (28.0%) is a half a percentage point for his 27.5% career rate. There’s no visible reason for this and any amount of regression combined with his increased bat missing skills recently could make him a pitcher to watch going forward.
Corey Kluber has run into ERA issues before, normally due to a high BABIP, which resolved as the season went on to at least some degree. This time the problem seems much simpler in a 61.7 LOB%. He’s been below 50% in three of his last four. Batters that reach are scoring nearly 40% of the time. Base runners are being bunched.
Tyler Duffey has a .355 BABIP and 63.0 LOB%. He’s allowed a 24.9 LD%, but no more hard contact that average. The Minnesota defense has allowed the highest BABIP in baseball, by 18 points over Colorado.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.301 | 0.297 | -0.004 | 0.203 | 5.2% | 84.5% |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.287 | 0.309 | 0.022 | 0.252 | 7.1% | 92.6% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.295 | 0.394 | 0.099 | 0.344 | 0.0% | 92.2% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.296 | 0.370 | 0.074 | 0.231 | 12.5% | 93.5% |
| Bud Norris | ATL | 0.286 | 0.297 | 0.011 | 0.237 | 6.1% | 89.5% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.312 | 0.328 | 0.016 | 0.218 | 4.3% | 86.3% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.303 | 0.262 | -0.041 | 0.224 | 11.8% | 85.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.282 | 0.266 | -0.016 | 0.183 | 16.7% | 86.6% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.283 | 0.234 | -0.049 | 0.185 | 7.2% | 89.5% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.307 | 0.359 | 0.052 | 0.188 | 8.7% | 87.7% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.282 | 0.283 | 0.001 | 0.184 | 5.9% | 86.2% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.294 | 0.265 | -0.029 | 0.164 | 14.0% | 82.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.289 | 0.259 | -0.03 | 0.189 | 11.8% | 84.9% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 0.182 | 10.0% | 92.1% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.291 | 0.403 | 0.112 | 0.266 | 0.0% | 85.8% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.254 | 0.250 | -0.004 | 0.191 | 8.0% | 88.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.279 | -0.026 | 0.217 | 13.2% | 90.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.289 | 0.282 | -0.007 | 0.213 | 11.8% | 87.1% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.305 | 0.327 | 0.022 | 0.279 | 10.9% | 80.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.310 | 0.271 | -0.039 | 0.193 | 12.7% | 84.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.304 | 0.416 | 0.112 | 0.234 | 3.1% | 88.9% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.281 | 0.188 | -0.093 | 0.157 | 18.0% | 85.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.303 | 0.316 | 0.013 | 0.202 | 5.5% | 84.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.300 | 0.298 | -0.002 | 0.191 | 4.0% | 92.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.272 | 0.282 | 0.01 | 0.206 | 12.5% | 82.0% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.304 | 0.304 | 0 | 0.179 | 8.2% | 93.2% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.285 | 0.293 | 0.008 | 0.23 | 5.2% | 87.3% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.330 | 0.355 | 0.025 | 0.249 | 15.1% | 89.5% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.304 | 0.253 | -0.051 | 0.196 | 11.8% | 92.8% |
| Wilfredo Boscan | PIT | 0.295 | 0.231 | -0.064 | 0.158 | 7.1% | 90.7% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It would almost be worth adding a fifth tier today because there are so many usable arms, but that I felt I left a few on the cutting room floor, but the group listed below is clearly strong and it already covers nine pitchers. The line has to be drawn somewhere, but if you like an arm like Cueto in this spot, don’t be dissuaded by opinions down here.
Value Tier One
Editor’s Note: Bartolo Colon will now start instead of Syndergaard against the Royals tonight.
Noah Syndergaard (2) does everything Fernandez does, but with fewer walks and better contact. Add in a bit of a tougher matchup, but also a lower cost and it’s tough to go wrong either way.
Jose Fernandez (1) against Atlanta at any cost is an easy call even if they are playing a bit better. When you lead the league in strikeout rate by more than three points, there’s little else needed.
Value Tier Two
Tyler Duffey is declining, but still has above average peripherals. He’s going to allow some hits and may not be the above average pitcher we thought he might be, but he’s facing the Phillies for $6.5K or less. If he fails here, I promise we’re done with him.
Corey Kluber (3) seems to bomb whenever we get to cover him here, but we’re not going to give up on a quality pitcher due to a low strand rate. We hope others will though. He’s got a good chance to rack up the Ks tonight in Tampa Bay. I’m projecting about seven or eight and have him as the third highest rate on this board.
Value Tier Three
Aaron Nola (4t) is coming off two his worst two start stretch of the season, not lasting four innings in either and still costs $9K. He’s still among the league leaders in all of the most important categories and had failed to go six innings in only one start previously. He’s only struck out fewer than six three times and is in a good spot against the Twins tonight.
Collin McHugh has a misfortunate BABIP that doesn’t seem to want to regress, but he’s compensated for that by missing bats at an elite rate over the last month. He’s not in a bad spot tonight, but one where strikeouts might be tougher to come by, but with any BABIP fortune, he should be worth more than his below average cost.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chad Bettis is likely to be overlooked by most people and hasn’t pitched much better on the road, but he’s rarely seen a good spot this year. His SwStr% has been on its way up and he pitched well against this offense in the most difficult of environments last week, albeit without a DH. He doesn’t even have to be good for his price.
Chris Sale (4t) is missing more bats and costs just $8.7K on DraftKings tonight, so what’s the problem? The Boston Red Sox, although I would keep him on the board on either site tonight as he has upside and is unlikely to see high ownership rates tonight.
James Paxton has tremendous upside for a moderate price, but faces a tough offense and has had a lot of issues with hard contact so far.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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