Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 7th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | PIT | |||||||||
| Steven Wright | BOS | DET | 156.2 | 3.33 | 4.55 | 1.24 | 50.00% | 19.4% | 8.7% | 0.69 | 43.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | PHI | 228.1 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 0.97 | 67.65% | 31.5% | 6.2% | 1.22 | 33.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | COL | |||||||||
| Matt Cain | SFG | SDP | 89.1 | 5.64 | 4.67 | 1.51 | 23.53% | 18.1% | 8.1% | 1.61 | 37.3% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | BAL | 71 | 5.83 | 4.06 | 1.45 | 9.09% | 21.2% | 8.0% | 1.39 | 45.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | NYM | 123.1 | 4.96 | 4.14 | 1.28 | 31.82% | 19.2% | 4.6% | 1.61 | 40.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | TBR | 163 | 4.69 | 4.38 | 1.48 | 41.38% | 23.0% | 11.6% | 1.44 | 52.0% |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | TEX | 22.1 | 7.25 | 4.85 | 1.57 | 13.6% | 3.9% | 3.63 | 39.5% | |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | HOU | 12 | 2.25 | 3.96 | 0.92 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 0.75 | 36.4% | |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | MIL | 11.1 | 11.91 | 5.1 | 2.56 | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.18 | 50.0% | |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | CHW | 59 | 5.95 | 5.04 | 1.51 | 18.18% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 1.68 | 35.4% |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | STL | |||||||||
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | ARI | 174 | 4.4 | 4.24 | 1.19 | 44.83% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 1.86 | 43.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | LAA | 118 | 5.42 | 5.34 | 1.58 | 21.74% | 16.2% | 11.6% | 1.22 | 43.2% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | ATL | 162 | 4.17 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 30.77% | 18.6% | 4.1% | 1.28 | 53.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | BOS | 159 | 3.06 | 4.03 | 1.12 | 50.00% | 20.4% | 6.5% | 0.91 | 49.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | WAS | |||||||||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | LAD | |||||||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | SFG | 146.2 | 5.71 | 4.04 | 1.59 | 30.00% | 15.9% | 7.0% | 1.41 | 59.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | NYY | 142.1 | 5.44 | 4.75 | 1.56 | 24.00% | 19.6% | 11.3% | 1.01 | 49.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | MIA | |||||||||
| Matt Andriese | TBR | TOR | 127.2 | 4.37 | 3.9 | 1.22 | 21.05% | 20.7% | 4.7% | 1.20 | 42.9% |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | OAK | 119 | 5.07 | 4.63 | 1.36 | 21.74% | 21.0% | 9.0% | 2.12 | 29.1% |
| Michael Fiers | HOU | KCR | |||||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | CHC | 179.1 | 4.62 | 4.92 | 1.52 | 34.38% | 17.4% | 10.7% | 1.25 | 49.4% |
| Derek Holland | CHW | MIN | 107.1 | 4.95 | 5.1 | 1.41 | 45.00% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 1.26 | 38.3% |
| Mike Leake | STL | CIN | 176.2 | 4.69 | 3.92 | 1.32 | 40.00% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 1.02 | 53.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | SEA | 67 | 4.43 | 3.59 | 1.33 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 1.61 | 42.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
It is a minefield out there. There are two times during the regular season when we are virtually assured of a weak slate of back-end starters, due to teams lining up their rotations, and we are in the midst of the first of those times (the other is just after the All-Star break). There is one ace on the docket – Max Scherzer, who is making his season debut after a slight delay – but he is on the morning slate and thus misses the boat for the afternoon/evening set. There is nobody even close to All-In status among the 10 later games, and in fact the Raise category is noticeably thin.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Francisco Liriano TOR (at TB, $8900) – Liriano is the priciest – and most attractive – option on the evening slate, which tell you all you need to know about the question marks surrounding this set of pitchers. The lack of quality options will surely result in loaded lineups of All-Star bats, as teams will have plenty of cap room for bats and incentive to get their points from the hitters in the lineup. Liriano has been an inconsistent pitcher who piles up the walks for much of his career, but he has big-strikeout upside and is coming off a spring session in which he posted an incredible 29:6 K:BB in 18.0 innings of work, with a 2.00 ERA to show for his troubles. The Tampa Bay lineup was much stronger against southpaws last season, but offseason adjustments have taken some of the wind out of their sails against southpaws. Between the weak opponent, the friendly venue and his sparkling spring, Liriano presents the most promising context among the pitchers on tonight’s slate.
Yup, that’s it. Liriano is the only pitcher on tonight’s slate who qualifies for even Raise status. Onward through the minefield!
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | PIT | ||||||||
| Steven Wright | BOS | DET | 0.271 | 3.19 | 0.303 | 3.44 | 0.234 | 4.55 | 0.279 | 3.77 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | PHI | 0.323 | 3.51 | 0.206 | 2.46 | 0.196 | 3.05 | 0.255 | 3.24 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | COL | ||||||||
| Matt Cain | SFG | SDP | 0.386 | 5.2 | 0.353 | 5.94 | 0.287 | 4.67 | 0.321 | 5.14 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | BAL | 0.323 | 5.3 | 0.37 | 6.37 | 0.275 | 4.06 | 0.324 | 4.48 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | NYM | 0.336 | 7 | 0.334 | 4.61 | 0.272 | 4.14 | 0.302 | 4.5 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | TBR | 0.326 | 3.89 | 0.339 | 4.93 | 0.246 | 4.38 | 0.296 | 4.89 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | TEX | 0.393 | 4.85 | 0 | 0 | 0.326 | 4.85 | 0.306 | 8.21 |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | HOU | 0 | 0 | 0.197 | 1.69 | 0.182 | 3.96 | 0.219 | 3.15 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.431 | 5.1 | 0.429 | 7.91 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | CHW | 0.412 | 6.23 | 0.335 | 5.83 | 0.309 | 5.04 | 0.323 | 5.08 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | STL | ||||||||
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | ARI | 0.287 | 3.4 | 0.356 | 5.18 | 0.266 | 4.24 | 0.276 | 4.88 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | LAA | 0.349 | 6.08 | 0.349 | 4.92 | 0.272 | 5.34 | 0.303 | 5.04 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | ATL | 0.362 | 4.46 | 0.306 | 3.97 | 0.27 | 3.76 | 0.306 | 4.11 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | BOS | 0.276 | 2.5 | 0.295 | 3.66 | 0.228 | 4.03 | 0.268 | 3.76 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | WAS | ||||||||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | LAD | ||||||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | SFG | 0.366 | 6.48 | 0.355 | 5.06 | 0.307 | 4.04 | 0.341 | 4.84 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | NYY | 0.378 | 5.98 | 0.308 | 5.06 | 0.266 | 4.75 | 0.318 | 4.43 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | MIA | ||||||||
| Matt Andriese | TBR | TOR | 0.301 | 3.86 | 0.312 | 4.84 | 0.261 | 3.9 | 0.304 | 3.78 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | OAK | 0.406 | 5.75 | 0.304 | 4.45 | 0.254 | 4.63 | 0.274 | 5.74 |
| Michael Fiers | HOU | KCR | ||||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | CHC | 0.34 | 4.5 | 0.35 | 4.73 | 0.264 | 4.92 | 0.299 | 5.12 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | MIN | 0.26 | 2.25 | 0.346 | 5.56 | 0.274 | 5.1 | 0.295 | 4.75 |
| Mike Leake | STL | CIN | 0.324 | 4.64 | 0.322 | 4.73 | 0.282 | 3.92 | 0.318 | 3.83 |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | SEA |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at NYM, $8200) – Last season was supposed to be a coming-out party for Chen, who was leaving the bandbox of Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins stadium (and the National League), where his ERA (career mark of 3.72 entering last season) was supposed to come down to career-low levels. Instead, Chen posted the highest ERA of his career, with a 4.96 mark that gave him below-average run prevention for the first time in his tenure. Chen has always been prone to the longball, but last season he reached new heights by giving up 1.6 HR/9, basically achieving the opposite result of what was expected from the move in home stadium. He keeps the walks down – as well as the strikeouts – and playing tonight’s game in Citi Field should theoretically help him to keep the ball in the yard, but the downside is steep and the upside lacks a high ceiling of expected performance.
Mike Leake STL (vs. CIN, $6800) – Leake was the picture of consistency prior to last season, the type of high-floor, low-ceiling pitcher whose value skyrockets on a thin slate like today’s. From 2013-15, he was good for a mid-3 ERA, a low walk rate and roughly six K’s per nine. Then he signed a free-agent deal with the Cardinals, a ballclub that generally coaxes the most out of their pitchers, yet Leake unexpectedly faltered with a career-high ERA of 4.69, despite a career-low walk rate and his typical 1.0 HR/9. He faces his old team in today’s matchup but there are few players left on the current iteration of Cincy’s roster from when he was there last, so there is unlikely to be an advantage of familiarity for the Reds’ hitters. I’m willing to give Leake a bit of a mulligan for last season, with the understanding that his expected performance is nothing to write home about, but on a day like today his relatively-stable performance record and weak opponent vault him near the top of the list of options.
Shelby Miller ARI (vs. CLE, $6300) – Miller has been one of the most frustrating pitchers of the past four seasons. He was a breakout stud back in 2013, watched all of his stats go backward the following season, then rebounded with another quality campaign in ‘15. Then 2016 happened, in which Miller was a complete mess on the mound, compiling a 6.15 ERA that was unplayable in any fantasy format. Regression dictates that he has to be better this season, and it’s worth noting that Miller has posted an ERA of 3.74 or lower in three of the past four seasons. His spring K:BB of 22:6 in 15.1 innings was encouraging, as was the zero homers allowed, but the 6.46 ERA was not. Given the lack of available options and the low price tag, Miller makes for an interesting play in tournaments but will be tough to trust in cash games.
Brett Anderson CHC (at MIL, $6400) – Brett Anderson has become something of a joke in fantasy circles due to his complete inability to stay healthy, as the left-hander has tossed over 115 innings just twice in his career, but his long-term viability is less of a concern for the DFS gamer. Of greater concern are the short outings and paucity of strikeouts from Anderson when he has been healthy. He has a formidable lineup for run support and a weak opponent (made weaker by the potential absence of Keon Broxton), elements which help to boost his stock a bit. And his cost is so low that DFS gamers can roll the dice with low expectations, but Anderson is very unlikely to make a large positive dent with his performance.
Zack Wheeler NYM (vs. MIA, $8000) – We have been waiting a long time for Wheeler to resurface, and finally that wait is over. We will likely have to wait longer for him to rediscover the effectiveness to his prospect days, though. Wheeler pitched just 12.0 innings this spring, with a paltry 7:7 K:BB ratio and a 5.11 ERA over that time, and though spring training stats carry all sorts of caveats, we would like to see something more encouraging from a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since 2014. The price tag is one of the highest among tonight’s cohort of starters, but that price tag is being unnecessarily inflated by anticipation and what he once promised as a prospect, but now he is a 26-year-old starter who hasn’t pitched in either of the past two seasons and whose career WHIP of 1.34 is less than encouraging. Look past the ERA, ignore what we thought he was prior to Tommy John surgery, and recognize him for what he is: a pitcher who has a lot to prove before he can be trusted with DFS dollars.
Luis Severino NYY (at BAL, $5800) – Severino throws hard, averaging 96.9 mph on his fastball last season according to Brooks Baseball, which in and of itself causes him to stand out among the day’s options. The heat is still hittable, as evidenced by last season’s .302 batting average and .528 slugging percentage against the fastball, and the Orioles present a lineup full of hitters who will be looking to redirect that velo into deep flies off the bat. The Baltimore ballpark won’t do him any favors (Severino has a career mark of 1.4 HR/9), but he has the upside for a high body count of strikeouts, once again making him a unique option on today’s slate. He’s a risk/reward pitcher whose upside is almost as impressive as the downside is steep, making him an ideal play for tournament formats and a potentially worthwhile gamble in cash games. At $5800, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Severino to earn a profit.
Matt Andriese TB (vs. TOR, $6700) – Andriese might be an afterthought following consecutive seasons of more than a hit given up per inning and more than a homer per nine, but he does bring some value in a slate that is full of landmines. He is very stingy with the free pass (career 2.0 BB/9) and is facing a Toronto lineup that pales in comparison to the robust offense of two years ago, such that he could put up a good line today if Andriese is able to walk between the raindrops. He doesn’t have much in the way of upside, but he provides much better bang for the buck than several of the options that are more costly on DraftKings.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CHC, $7000) – It seems like we’ve been waiting awhile for the Nelson breakout that never came. Last season things went from bad to worse, as his 86 walks led the majors, he posted an ERA in the 4’s for the third consecutive season, his 17 wild pitches led the majors (his second consecutive season with that distinction), and the K rate of 7.0 K/9 was the lowest of his career to date. All of the peripheral stats are headed in the wrong direction, and today’s opponent makes it even more likely that Nelson starts his 2017 campaign on the wrong foot. Other than being contrarian, I don’t see much justification for employing Nelson’s services despite the questionable slate of pitchers who are on the docket for today.
Mike Fiers HOU (vs. KC, $7500)
A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. OAK, $6100)
Phil Hughes MIN (at CHW, $6500)
Jesse Chavez LAA (vs. SEA, $7100)
Josh Tomlin CLE (at ARI, $7200)
Derek Holland CHW (vs. MIN, $5600)
Raul Alcantara OAK (at TEX, $4500)
Amir Garrett CIN (at STL, $5500)
Jason Vargas KC (at HOU, $6000)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Yovani Gallardo SEA (at LAA, $7300)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. NYY, $6600) – Gallardo and Jimenez are two of my go-to examples of pitchers with horrific mechanics and inconsistent release points. Each pitcher will occasionally spike an effective start, but the volatility in their own deliveries leads to similarly-volatile results, and I refuse to trust either one with an investment in DFS. I am much more likely to stack a lineup with Angels and/or Yankees than to employ the services of either Jimenez or Gallardo.