Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 5th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | NYY | CHC | 204.1 | 4.58 | 3.26 | 1.31 | 28.13% | 28.0% | 6.5% | 1.41 | 46.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | PIT | 208 | 4.72 | 4.87 | 1.52 | 34.38% | 17.5% | 10.3% | 1.25 | 48.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 182.2 | 3.5 | 3.25 | 1.08 | 58.33% | 29.1% | 6.9% | 0.84 | 42.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | BAL | 168 | 3.64 | 4.66 | 1.26 | 39.13% | 16.5% | 6.2% | 0.75 | 39.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | TBR | 185.2 | 4.61 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 41.38% | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.31 | 51.3% |
| Matt Cain | SFG | CIN | 116.2 | 4.86 | 4.6 | 1.43 | 23.53% | 18.4% | 8.0% | 1.47 | 38.7% |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | NYM | 201.2 | 4.46 | 4.85 | 1.48 | 39.39% | 18.9% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 41.5% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | ATL | 29.1 | 2.45 | 4.17 | 1.09 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.23 | 46.9% | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | MIN | 130.1 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 1.29 | 35.00% | 23.7% | 9.8% | 1.38 | 30.9% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | KCR | 166.1 | 3.95 | 3.76 | 1.35 | 40.00% | 28.6% | 10.9% | 1.03 | 45.3% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | COL | 195.1 | 4.15 | 3.95 | 1.26 | 50.00% | 21.3% | 6.0% | 1.29 | 45.3% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | OAK | 190 | 3.08 | 4.03 | 1.1 | 50.00% | 20.5% | 6.6% | 0.95 | 48.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 212.2 | 3.85 | 3.69 | 1.18 | 50.00% | 20.8% | 6.8% | 1.02 | 57.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | SDP | 201.2 | 3.88 | 3.69 | 1.17 | 43.75% | 24.9% | 6.8% | 1.20 | 42.1% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | SEA | 139 | 3.3 | 3.29 | 1.1 | 47.06% | 30.5% | 8.5% | 1.04 | 40.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | NYY | 218 | 2.39 | 3.81 | 1.01 | 63.33% | 22.4% | 6.5% | 0.83 | 48.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | MIL | 93.2 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 1.42 | 57.14% | 17.6% | 7.8% | 0.77 | 43.2% |
| Nicholas Pivetta | PHI | WAS | |||||||||
| Wade Miley | BAL | CHW | 197 | 4.89 | 4.17 | 1.4 | 30.00% | 20.9% | 8.1% | 1.28 | 47.3% |
| Chris Archer | TBR | TOR | 240.2 | 3.93 | 3.61 | 1.25 | 33.33% | 26.6% | 8.1% | 1.23 | 46.1% |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | SFG | 25 | 7.2 | 4.85 | 1.4 | 16.4% | 8.2% | 2.16 | 37.0% | |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | MIA | 25.2 | 8.42 | 5.64 | 2.45 | 19.3% | 17.8% | 1.40 | 41.0% | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | STL | 149 | 4.05 | 4.12 | 1.28 | 31.82% | 21.2% | 7.0% | 1.27 | 41.9% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | BOS | 85.2 | 5.67 | 4.96 | 1.48 | 18.18% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 1.58 | 33.6% |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | CLE | 188.1 | 4.16 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 53.33% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 1.24 | 41.4% |
| German Marquez | COL | ARI | 30.2 | 5.87 | 4.05 | 1.73 | 33.33% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 0.59 | 52.8% |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | DET | 85.2 | 3.47 | 3.46 | 1.12 | 14.29% | 21.6% | 5.3% | 0.63 | 52.6% |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | HOU | 97 | 4.45 | 3.8 | 1.36 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 1.58 | 43.1% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | LAD | 178 | 5.01 | 4.35 | 1.43 | 27.27% | 18.8% | 8.6% | 0.91 | 49.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | TEX | 146.1 | 5.35 | 5.14 | 1.58 | 21.74% | 16.6% | 10.9% | 1.11 | 44.0% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Yu Darvish TEX (at SEA, $11600) – It was a tough battle for the top spot on today’s pitcher slate, but upside triumphs in the end, as Darvish’s ability to run up a high K-count gives him the highest ceiling of today’s group. He’s coming off a double-digit strikeout performance against the Angels in his last start, his second 10-K start of the short season. Darvish has also given up two or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts of 2017, giving up four tallies in each of the other starts, and he’s completed at least six innings in five of his six turns. At 4.0 BB/9, he’s giving up too many walks, an issue that has cropped up at various times throughout his career, but thus far Darvish has more than made up the difference with an exceptionally low hit rate (5.6 H/9), but the latter is sure to regress upward and Darvish will want to regain his pitch command before that happens.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at LAA, $10400) – By all means, Keuchel deserves the throne, and those who want to make an argument for his overtaking Darvish as the top option will have a strong case. Keuchel is facing the much easier offense – particularly if Mike Trout sits for the second consecutive day – and the southpaw will save $1200 against the salary cap when compared to Darvish. He has been incredibly consistent this season, having given up more than one earned run just once in 2017 (and he gave up just two earnies in the outlier) in six starts. He has has gone at least seven full frames in every start this season and has amassed 19.95 or more points in DraftKings for each turn (30 or more points on FanDuel), maxing out at a score of 34.25 DraftKings points in his last turn, a game that featured a season-high nine strikeouts against Oakland.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at PHI, $10600) – Strasburg’s ceiling extends almost as high as Darvish, considering that Stras can also run up a mean count of strikeouts, and that he’ll be facing the lightest offense out of the big-money starting pitchers today. Interestingly, his 2017 campaign has been marked more by consistency than by flashes of dominance. Strasburg has pitched exactly 7.0 innings in all five of his starts this season, giving up two or three earned runs in addition to five or six hits every one of those five turns. The strikeouts have been the volatile commodity, as Stras recorded just two punchouts in his last outing and a paltry three whiffs in his first start of the year, but he notched eight or more Ks in each of the three games between those bookends. This will already be his third start against the Phillies in 2017, making up half of his starts when all is said and done, and his first two efforts against the Phils went similarly well, with a total of five runs allowed on ten hits and five walks in 14.0 innings, including 16 strikeouts to his credit.
Chris Archer TB (vs. TOR, $9600) – Archer is the elite option for bargain shoppers, coming in at a thousand bucks cheaper than the other big guns yet offering the upside to match. He’s been a strikeout maven over his first couple years in the league, and though his overall count of nearly a K-per-inning this season is solid, on a per-game basis the right-hander has been less impressive, recording exactly five strikeouts in four of his six turns this year. He came back strong in his last start after getting bounced around in his previous pair of outings, allowing just one run and six baserunners to the Blue Jays over 7.1 innings of work. Today will mark his third start against Toronto in seven turns this season, and his success against the Jays the first two times around should inspire optimism (especially with Josh Donaldson still out of the lineup): a combined 15.0 innings with three earned runs allowed (1.80 ERA) on nine hits and five walks against 13 strikeouts. All three of the homers that Archer has allowed this season came in the homer-friendly confines of Camden Yards against the powerful offense of the Orioles, but the current iteration of the Blue Jays offense is unlikely to pose much of a threat.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | NYY | CHC | 0.335 | 3.71 | 0.321 | 5.26 | 0.26 | 3.26 | 0.335 | 3.7 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | PIT | 0.346 | 4.77 | 0.347 | 4.67 | 0.269 | 4.87 | 0.305 | 5.02 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 0.255 | 3.36 | 0.292 | 3.64 | 0.216 | 3.25 | 0.288 | 2.86 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | BAL | 0.303 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 4.54 | 0.255 | 4.66 | 0.291 | 3.72 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | TBR | 0.313 | 3.89 | 0.34 | 4.81 | 0.246 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 4.72 |
| Matt Cain | SFG | CIN | 0.372 | 4.72 | 0.329 | 4.96 | 0.272 | 4.6 | 0.306 | 4.84 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | NYM | 0.353 | 4.43 | 0.319 | 4.5 | 0.261 | 4.85 | 0.298 | 4.82 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | ATL | 0.378 | 4.63 | 0.192 | 1.02 | 0.204 | 4.17 | 0.228 | 4.34 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | MIN | 0.324 | 2.88 | 0.309 | 4.7 | 0.23 | 4.32 | 0.272 | 4.43 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | KCR | 0.289 | 3.97 | 0.321 | 3.93 | 0.234 | 3.76 | 0.314 | 3.63 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | COL | 0.31 | 4.03 | 0.323 | 4.29 | 0.257 | 3.95 | 0.299 | 3.96 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | OAK | 0.258 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 4.01 | 0.223 | 4.03 | 0.26 | 3.83 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 0.247 | 2.42 | 0.313 | 4.23 | 0.24 | 3.69 | 0.282 | 3.77 |
| Kenta Maeda | LAD | SDP | 0.327 | 3.97 | 0.261 | 3.81 | 0.234 | 3.69 | 0.286 | 3.78 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | SEA | 0.266 | 3.22 | 0.277 | 3.38 | 0.203 | 3.29 | 0.271 | 3.23 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | NYY | 0.275 | 2.02 | 0.248 | 2.68 | 0.206 | 3.81 | 0.247 | 3.45 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | MIL | 0.404 | 6.18 | 0.278 | 3.64 | 0.272 | 4.65 | 0.32 | 3.91 |
| Nicholas Pivetta | PHI | WAS | ||||||||
| Wade Miley | BAL | CHW | 0.286 | 3.32 | 0.349 | 5.33 | 0.271 | 4.17 | 0.319 | 4.34 |
| Chris Archer | TBR | TOR | 0.304 | 4.19 | 0.302 | 3.7 | 0.235 | 3.61 | 0.296 | 3.74 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | SFG | 0.288 | 6 | 0.422 | 8.31 | 0.257 | 4.85 | 0.26 | 5.8 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | MIA | 0.451 | 4.82 | 0.408 | 10.47 | 0.351 | 5.64 | 0.432 | 5.93 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | STL | 0.323 | 4.08 | 0.316 | 4.02 | 0.253 | 4.12 | 0.295 | 4.19 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | BOS | 0.383 | 5.46 | 0.344 | 5.79 | 0.307 | 4.96 | 0.325 | 4.83 |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | CLE | 0.344 | 4.15 | 0.3 | 4.17 | 0.245 | 4.39 | 0.283 | 4.43 |
| German Marquez | COL | ARI | 0.39 | 6.75 | 0.378 | 4.91 | 0.321 | 4.05 | 0.383 | 3.6 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | DET | 0.265 | 3.49 | 0.285 | 3.45 | 0.233 | 3.46 | 0.286 | 3.1 |
| Jesse Chavez | LAA | HOU | 0.332 | 5.26 | 0.337 | 3.9 | 0.272 | 3.8 | 0.316 | 4.52 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | LAD | 0.339 | 5.97 | 0.306 | 4.11 | 0.267 | 0.314 | 4.03 | |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | TEX | 6.2 | 0.344 | 4.67 | 0.276 | 0.313 | 4.73 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Danny Salazar CLE (at KC, $10000) – Salazar has the K-related upside to hang with the big boys, but he has nowhere near the consistency of the other top arms available tonight, leaving Salazar as a dice-roll worthy of the occasional big tournament lineup but who should probably be kept away from cash game lineups. Salazar has registered an incredible 42 strikeouts in 29.0 innings this season but is coming off his lowest K-count of the campaign, with six punchouts against the Mariners. He hasn’t been lit up yet this season, but Salazar finds a way to walk a few batters and give up a crooked number of runs in some starts, resulting in DK scores that have varied from 14.65 points on the low-end to a season-high of 27.30 points, but only twice this season has he cleared enough points to be profitable on a $10k salary.
Michael Fulmer DET (at OAK, $8000) – Fulmer is posting nearly identical numbers to his RotY-winning 2016 campaign. The K and walk rates are a dead ringer, as is his low-threes ERA, as Fulmer now has a career ERA of 3.08 over 190.0 innings of work. He doesn’t strike out many hitters but steadily maintains a K/BB near 3.0, a mark that he has sustained across the last two partial seasons. He blanked the Red Sox in his first start of the year, but Fullmer has since settled into a comfort zone, allowing two or three runs in each of his last four starts. He has also given up exactly four hits in four of his five turns, with the outlier being a six-hit performance from mid-April, though one of those hits has left the building in each of his last four starts. Pitching against Oakland will help to ensure that his consistency continues, as what Fulmer lacks in ceiling he makes for with a high floor.
Lance Lynn STL (at ATL, $7800) – Lynn’s return from Tommy John surgery has gone very well so far, including a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP over five starts and 29.1 innings this season. The Cardinals have used laser-like precision with Lynn’s per-game workloads, as the right-hander has thrown between 95 and 101 pitches in all five of his starts this season, and he has become more efficient with his pitch counts as the season has progressed, as that pitch count was only enough to cover about five frames in each of his first two starts but has gotten him through at least 6.0 frames in each of his last three turns. He has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his starts this season, and over the last three games Lynn has posted an exceptional 0.95 ERA over 19.0 innings.
Francisco Liriano TOR (at TB, $8200) – There is a massive gap in salary between Liriano and the next man above him (Chris Archer at $9600), highlighting the disparity between tiers on tonight’s pitching slate. Liriano has been a bit maddening this season, coming off an incredible spring and then getting bombed for five runs while registering just one out in his first start of the year. Liriano has rebounded nicely from that forgettable outing, and over his last four starts the southpaw has put together a 2.01 ERA with zero home runs allowed, though that last stat is artificially buffering the ERA and his K:BB is a shaky 24:11 over 22.1 innings during that stretch. He has finished the sixth inning in just one of his starts this season, as a lack of pitch-count efficiency that has dogged Liriano throughout his career has followed him into this season.
Zack Greinke ARI (at COL, $7700) – The “Call” label is an apprehensive one, as the downside of Greinke in Coors is a steep plunge that will sink the battleship of an entire lineup. Tread with caution and only deploy in large tournaments with cheap entry fees so that the impact of his downside is minimized. Greinke is having a nice bounceback season following a horrific 2016 campaign, but he hasn’t been so good that he’s worth testing at Coors Field. The main reason to deploy his services is to zig while others zag, reaping the benefit of his likely low-ownership rates in the unlikely event that he does post an excellent line and keeps the Diamondback bats at bay.
Kenta Maeda LAD (at SD, $9800) – The Padres’ offense has the ability to cure a lot of ails, from low K rates to high ERAs, thanks to the K-heavy, power-light bats of the San Diego offense. Maeda has tallied an impressive K:BB of 27:6 in 26.0 innings this season, but he has coughed up a ridiculous total of seven home runs and has given up 10.0 H/9, helping to bloat his ERA to 6.58 so far in 2017. He faced the Padres in his first start of the year and the results were less than impressive, garnering just 8.45 points on DraftKings. The Dodgers have been very careful with Maeda’s per-game workloads this season, keeping him at 83 pitches or fewer in each of his first four starts this season, though they did extend him to 101 pitches in his last turn. He might be able to turn a profit if he stays in the game for six-plus frames and the Padres acquiesce with a poor day at the plate, but his performance to date certainly does not justify a nearly $10k salary.
Nick Pivetta PHI (vs. WAS, $4700) – Despite the lack of name value, Pivetta is actually an interesting pitcher, with an average fastball velocity of 95.0 mph this season and a big velocity differential from his low-80s slider, but opposing batters were able to square up his secondary offerings in Pivetta’s first start of the year and tonight he faces a dangerous Washington offense that has been squaring up just about everything. His price is so ridiculously low that there’s a ton of profit potential, but the fact that he’s playing the juggernaut offense of the Nats means that he’s a non-starter for cash games, and the lack of a big-league track record leaves Pivetta with a very steep downside. His low salary is the only element that makes Pivetta worth considering, but on a day with a ton of bats playing in thin air, a team looking to free up cap room to squeeze in those high-altitude bats might be willing to take a risk.
Wade Miley BAL (vs. CHW, $7500)
Andrew Triggs OAK (vs. DET, $6700)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at MIN, $7600)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. STL, $7400)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PIT, $6600)
Jesse Chavez LAA (vs. HOU, $6500)
Tom Koehler MIA (at NYM, $6800)
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. MIL, $5700)
Rafael Montero NYM (vs. MIA, $4500)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. BOS, $5500)
Jhoulys Chacin SD (vs. LAD, $5400)
Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at BAL, $5600)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jason Hammel KC (vs. CLE, $7000)
Yovani Gallardo SEA (vs. TEX, $6900)
German Marquez COL (vs. ARI, $4200)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window