Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 16th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-17 02:38:13

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Rodriguez	BOS	BAL	186.1	4.40	4.34	1.35		18.8%	7.4%	1.26	1.05
Gallardo	BAL	BOS	262.2	3.94	4.85	1.47	50.0%	15.6%	9.6%	0.86	1.47
Maeda	LAD	PHI	130.2	3.31	3.69	1.09		24.5%	6.5%	1.03	1.13
Velasquez	PHI	LAD	163	4.09	3.78	1.33		26.1%	9.1%	1.05	0.80
Estrada	TOR	NYY	309.1	3.05	4.45	1.04	27.8%	20.3%	8.1%	1.13	0.66
Pineda	NYY	TOR	292	4.68	3.25	1.28	75.0%	24.9%	4.8%	1.29	1.49
Duffy	KCR	DET	261	3.48	3.93	1.21	57.1%	22.2%	7.2%	1.00	0.93
Verlander	DET	KCR	293.2	3.40	3.75	1.07	35.0%	24.0%	6.4%	0.98	0.78
Kluber	CLE	CWS	379	3.37	3.19	1.03	57.1%	26.7%	5.4%	0.83	1.26
Urena	MIA	CIN	98	5.79	5.08	1.58		12.0%	9.1%	0.83	1.53
Desclafani	CIN	MIA	257	3.78	4.07	1.31	20.0%	19.8%	6.8%	0.91	1.26
Santana	MIN	ATL	234.2	3.80	4.41	1.26	38.9%	17.9%	6.9%	1.00	1.13
De La Cruz	ATL	MIN	33	4.09	5.49	1.39		11.0%	8.3%	1.36	1.13
Jackson	SDP	TBR	98.2	3.56	4.70	1.26	15.0%	16.3%	9.8%	0.73	1.13
Snell	TBR	SDP	56.2	3.18	4.58	1.52		23.1%	12.4%	0.48	1.25
Anderson	MIL	CHC	264	4.57	4.47	1.34	40.0%	17.8%	7.2%	1.33	1.06
Hammel	CHC	MIL	298	3.38	3.77	1.13	47.4%	22.8%	6.5%	1.18	1.11
Triggs	OAK	TEX	37.2	5.50	3.38	1.54		22.4%	7.1%	0.96	2.26
Harrell	TEX	OAK	45	4.20	4.88	1.42		18.4%	10.7%	0.80	1.31
Garcia	STL	HOU	267	3.20	3.66	1.18	28.6%	19.3%	6.7%	0.64	2.61
Keuchel	HOU	STL	380	3.29	3.22	1.13	50.0%	22.3%	6.3%	0.81	2.83
Gonzalez	WAS	COL	309.1	3.99	3.92	1.38	46.7%	22.2%	8.7%	0.67	1.72
Bettis	COL	WAS	253.1	4.80	4.18	1.44		18.2%	7.4%	0.99	1.87
Syndergaard	NYM	ARI	284.1	3.01	2.90	1.11		28.6%	5.1%	0.85	1.58
Shipley	ARI	NYM	24.1	2.96	5.25	1.32		17.0%	12.0%	1.48	1.23
Miranda	SEA	LAA
Chacin	LAA	SEA	125.1	5.31	4.52	1.48	18.2%	17.9%	9.2%	1.15	1.63
Taillon	PIT	SFG	60	2.85	3.45	1.08		19.8%	3.4%	1.05	2.29
Samardzija	SFG	PIT	360.2	4.67	4.28	1.27	60.0%	17.9%	5.8%	1.25	1.11

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. CHW) – Kluber is coming off the most mundane of quality starts, hitting the baseline thresholds of 6.0 innings pitched and three earned runs allowed against the Angels, but he also posted pedestrian peripherals with just three strikeouts on the outing, and though he gave up just four hits, two of those hits left the yard. It was an oddball start for a pitcher who had gone 7.0 or more innings with seven or more strikeouts in each of the five previous starts, four of which involved one or zero earned runs allowed. The Angels are the toughest lineup in baseball to strike out, giving some context to the low K-count of his last start His penchant for going deep into ballgames raises the roof of his fantasy upside, and though he hasn’t exceeded eight strikeouts in a game since June and has only hit double digits once this season (back in April), he has also hit seven or more Ks in nine of his eleven starts. In other words, unless Kluber’s facing the Angels, he’s basically a lock for 7-to-8 strikeouts.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. KC) – Verlander is pitching his best baseball in four years, a fact made all the more exceptional when considering the high bar that he set in his prime. Verlander had a disaster start against the Indians to finish the month of June, but since then he hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his eight starts. Over that stretch, Verlander has a 1.78 ERA with a 63:15 K:BB in 55.2 innings pitched, vaulting to the upper tier of pitchers, and tonight he faces a Royals offense that is light on firepower. The last time that he faced the Royals (July 15), Verlander posted 10 strikeouts with just two walks and four hits allowed, with one earnie over seven innings pitched. He won’t stop writing letters, begging to be an All-In pitcher for a day. Soon, Justin, soon.

Danny Duffy KC (at DET) – There’s no denying the run that Duffy’s on, nor the season that he’s having, leading the AL with a 1.005 WHIP and a full 10.0 K/9 on the campaign. The lefty has been an unstoppable force in August, with a 1.14 ERA and 28:3 K:BB through 23.2 innings. He went 8.0-plus frames in two of those games, one of which was a 16-K gem against the Rays. Duffy hasn’t walked more than two batters in any of his last nine starts, and though the 16-strikeout game was an extreme outlier that might be inflating his price tag, he has stepped up to perform worthy of his salary for weeks.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at ARI) – Syndergaard shook off some of the midseason injury scares, but he can’t shake the reality that his performance has fallen off significantly over the past couple of months. Through his first 14 starts of the year, Thor carried a 1.91 ERA with an insane K:BB of 106:12 in 85.0 innings. He had four games of double-digit strikeouts in those first 14 turns, but since mid-June he is carrying a 4.20 ERA with a 57:16 K:BB in nine starts covering 49.1 innings. The strikeouts are obviously still there, as Thor has a penchant for the eight-strikeout game, but he hasn’t whiffed more than eight batters in any of his last nine games. He faced the Diamondbacks in his last start, in which he lasted just 5.0 innings with six strikeouts while allowing three runs, eight hits and a walk. I think that he will top those numbers in his second go around, but expectations should be tempered to match the second-half versio nof Syndergaard rather than the freight train of the first half.

Kenta Maeda LAD (at PHI) – Maeda has been a mundane pitcher for the past five starts, never topping five strikeouts in a game and giving up multiple runs over 5-to-6 innings in every turn. He’s kept on a short leash, and though he had a massive 14-K game against the Padres just before the All-Star break, it’s also the only game since mid-June in which he’s punched out more than a half-dozen hitters. This is the back-end of a home-and-home series with the Phillies, so Maeda faced them in his last start, but with mediocre results, including three runs allowed in 5.0 innings of work. The Phillies have one of the weakest offenses in baseball, but the recent track record favors them tonight against Maeda.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Rodriguez	0.344	4.47	0.315	4.37	0.238	0.674	0.295	4.34	0.26	0.01	18.8%
Gallardo	0.341	4.80	0.318	3.15	0.272	0.772	0.305	4.29	0.269	0.00	15.6%
Maeda	0.292	2.90	0.264	3.64	0.243	0.687	0.273	3.60	0.223	0.01	24.5%
Velasquez	0.324	4.04	0.320	4.13	0.250	0.740	0.324	3.67	0.251	0.01	26.1%
Estrada	0.277	3.06	0.266	3.05	0.248	0.728	0.216	4.20	0.195	0.00	20.3%
Pineda	0.328	4.25	0.332	5.05	0.257	0.777	0.335	3.59	0.27	0.00	24.9%
Duffy	0.241	2.08	0.319	3.83	0.274	0.786	0.291	3.82	0.241	0.00	22.2%
Verlander	0.270	2.88	0.287	3.95	0.264	0.719	0.266	3.50	0.219	0.01	24.0%
Quintana	0.270	3.29	0.308	3.10	0.270	0.746	0.308	3.29	0.254	0.00	21.2%
Kluber	0.304	3.65	0.242	3.11	0.251	0.703	0.284	2.97	0.221	0.00	26.7%
Urena	0.362	6.80	0.341	4.97	0.249	0.709	0.317	4.66	0.29	0.00	12.0%
Desclafani	0.350	4.58	0.286	2.89	0.263	0.706	0.314	3.74	0.265	0.00	19.8%
Santana	0.310	4.08	0.308	3.50	0.253	0.683	0.288	4.01	0.253	0.00	17.9%
De La Cruz	0.325	4.50	0.353	3.71	0.248	0.717	0.261	5.32	0.258	0.01	11.0%
Jackson	0.276	2.41	0.302	4.37	0.243	0.712	0.259	4.08	0.228	0.00	16.3%
Snell	0.298	2.51	0.309	3.40	0.252	0.720	0.327	3.42	0.25	0.02	23.1%
Anderson	0.307	4.05	0.363	5.02	0.249	0.741	0.297	4.59	0.266	0.00	17.8%
Hammel	0.313	3.41	0.286	3.36	0.252	0.713	0.268	3.89	0.227	0.00	22.8%
Triggs	0.335	6.19	0.356	4.98	0.260	0.744	0.368	3.62	0.295	0.00	22.4%
Harrell	0.295	3.68	0.357	4.70	0.249	0.703	0.298	4.36	0.251	0.02	18.4%
Garcia	0.286	2.77	0.282	3.32	0.247	0.751	0.284	3.39	0.238	0.00	19.3%
Keuchel	0.225	2.68	0.294	3.47	0.236	0.685	0.283	3.29	0.233	0.00	22.3%
Gonzalez	0.274	3.25	0.323	4.20	0.261	0.722	0.324	3.42	0.257	0.00	22.2%
Bettis	0.330	4.51	0.349	5.08	0.249	0.726	0.322	4.06	0.277	0.00	18.2%
Syndergaard	0.306	3.53	0.260	2.58	0.261	0.732	0.314	2.73	0.236	0.01	28.6%
Shipley	0.302	1.29	0.341	5.23	0.239	0.704	0.239	5.36	0.227	0.04	17.0%
Miranda					0.247	0.703
Chacin	0.367	6.22	0.312	4.50	0.249	0.737	0.307	4.54	0.269	0.00	17.9%
Taillon	0.317	2.91	0.252	2.77	0.262	0.734	0.286	3.54	0.249	0.02	19.8%
Samardzija	0.353	5.65	0.295	3.78	0.259	0.725	0.292	4.28	0.261	0.00	17.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jose Quintana CHW (at CLE) – You want a guarantee of 7.0 or more innings pitched? Well, I can’t offer you one because the Kershaw is on the shelf, but this Quintana model has come within an out (plus or minus) of 7.0 frames in each of his last four starts and six of his last seven. For their part, the Indians have been tearing the cover off the ball lately, with a .900 OPS and .383 wOBA over the past seven days,the highest marks in baseball over that stretch. The Indians are also a much better team at the Jake than they are on the road, particularly when it comes to offense gaining 23 points of wOBA and 57 points of OPS with the home-field advantage.

Jameson Taillon PIT (at SF) – Through his first ten starts in the majors, Taillon has recorded 47 strikeouts yet given away just eight walks in 60.0 innings pitched, with his home runs given up (seven) nearly matching his walks allowed. His last two starts were the first times in his career that the leash was let out to longer than 100 pitches and Taillon has been buzzing along since he came back from the disabled list, with five consecutive quality starts that have encompassed a 1.97 ERA and 26:3 K:BB in 32.0 innings over that stretch. His last outing was dominant, needing just 101 pitches to clear 8.0 scoreless innings against the Padres, with just three hits and two walks allowed, as his run prevention and stinginess toward baserunners overshadowed a modest K count.

Marco Estrada TOR (at NYY) – After giving up just 54 hits in his first 93.1 innings of the season, regression to Estrada’s hit rate seemed inevitable, and the 33 hits that he has given up over his last six starts (35.0 innings) is much more in line with expectation. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should expect league-average hit rates from here on out, given that Estrada has given up just a .217 BABiP over the past two seasons combined while pitching for the Blue Jays. He had thrown less than 100 pitches in his previous six starts heading into his last game, but Estrada took 113 pitches to clear through 5.0 frames against the Rays, coughing up four walks and seven hits (as well as a hit batsman) in the process. It tied for the most walks that Estrada has given up in a game this season, though it was also the sixth time this year that he had given away four free passes in a game, so by no means was it unusual.

Blake Snell TB (vs. SD) – In his first 11 starts in the major leagues, Snell has recorded more than a strikeout per inning to go along with a relatively standard rate of hits (about one per inning), but he has been far too generous with the walks, with a rate of 4.9 BB/9 (12.4 percent). Snell is coming off his worst start of the season, in which he lasted just 1.2 innings in giving up five runs (two earned) on five hits and four walks against the Blue Jays. It doesn’t help that the Jays biggest mashers, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion, both stick it to southpaws. He gets an easier assignment this time around, facing a Padres lineup that was once stacked with southpaw mashers but which traded away a big chunk of their anti-lefty attack when the team dealt Matt Kemp to the Braves, and many of the new recruits (Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski) have yet to figure out how to hit left-handed pitching.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. LAD) – After being overhyped due to his 16-K gem in his second start of the year, Velasquez had settled into being an effective starter, and heading into his last start the rookie had been on a nice seven-start run since returning from the DL in late June, compiling a 2.85 ERA and 41:17 K:BB in 41.0 innings, though his Ks hadn’t peaked higher than seven in any individual game. But the wheels fell off in his last start, as VV surrendered nine runs (all earned) to the Dodgers on 11 hits and two walks without escaping the fifth inning. It was by far the worst start of his brief career, and tonight Velasquez will be tasked with facing that same Dodger offense with the hope of far better results this time around.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. PIT)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. MIA)

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. MIL)

Braden Shipley ARI (vs. NYM)

Ervin Santana MIN (at ATL)

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. TOR)

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. STL)

Jaime Garcia STL (at HOU)

Lucas Harrell TEX (vs. OAK)

Edwin Jackson SD (at TB)

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at COL)

Joel De La Cruz ATL (vs. MIN)

Ariel Miranda SEA (at LAA)

Jose Urena MIA (at CIN)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jhoulys Chacin LAA (vs. SEA)

Andrew Triggs OAK (at TEX)

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at BAL)

Chase Anderson MIL (at CHC)

Chad Bettis COL (vs. WAS)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. BOS)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window