Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 16th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | TOR | 207 | 4.61 | 4.17 | 1.38 | 30.00% | 19.1% | 8.4% | 1.30 | 55.1% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | CLE | 218.2 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 1.14 | 45.45% | 21.3% | 6.7% | 1.44 | 36.1% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PIT | 194.1 | 3.52 | 3.29 | 1.12 | 58.33% | 28.9% | 7.2% | 0.83 | 42.0% |
| Wade Miley | BAL | DET | 202.2 | 4.84 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 30.00% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.24 | 47.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | MIA | 226.2 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 1.18 | 50.00% | 21.1% | 6.7% | 1.03 | 58.5% |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | CHC | 36.1 | 5.94 | 4.8 | 1.32 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2.23 | 34.7% | |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | TEX | 95.1 | 4.63 | 5.12 | 1.22 | 36.36% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 1.51 | 39.8% |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | MIN | 40 | 2.93 | 4.34 | 1.33 | 15.1% | 10.5% | 0.23 | 65.9% | |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | KCR | 218.2 | 4.24 | 4.45 | 1.35 | 40.00% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 1.15 | 49.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | STL | 142.1 | 4.24 | 4.21 | 1.26 | 35.00% | 23.7% | 9.2% | 1.26 | 32.8% |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | ARI | 95.1 | 5.76 | 4.45 | 1.52 | 16.67% | 16.4% | 6.1% | 2.08 | 43.2% |
| Derek Holland | CHW | LAA | 148 | 4.26 | 4.98 | 1.34 | 45.00% | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.28 | 37.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | SDP | 217.2 | 4.51 | 4.82 | 1.49 | 34.38% | 17.8% | 10.3% | 1.20 | 48.7% |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | SEA | 97 | 3.43 | 3.5 | 1.14 | 14.29% | 21.2% | 5.7% | 0.56 | 53.3% |
| Rich Hill | LAD | SFG | 118.1 | 2.21 | 3.4 | 1.03 | 63.16% | 28.8% | 8.1% | 0.46 | 45.3% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | ATL | 225 | 3.4 | 4.17 | 1.13 | 41.38% | 23.6% | 8.7% | 1.16 | 34.4% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | TBR | 173.2 | 4.15 | 3.75 | 1.39 | 40.00% | 28.6% | 10.8% | 1.09 | 45.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | WAS | 101.2 | 4.69 | 4.61 | 1.41 | 57.14% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 0.80 | 42.9% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | BAL | 136.2 | 4.35 | 4.56 | 1.34 | 27.78% | 19.0% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 39.7% |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | HOU | 212 | 4.54 | 4.84 | 1.47 | 39.39% | 18.9% | 10.6% | 1.32 | 41.7% |
| John Lackey | CHC | CIN | 230.1 | 3.52 | 3.75 | 1.1 | 55.17% | 24.3% | 6.9% | 1.21 | 42.1% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | PHI | 152 | 3.26 | 3.35 | 1.12 | 47.06% | 29.6% | 8.4% | 1.13 | 39.9% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | COL | 97 | 5.47 | 4.98 | 1.47 | 18.18% | 13.4% | 4.9% | 1.58 | 34.9% |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | NYY | 201.1 | 4.2 | 4.36 | 1.3 | 53.33% | 20.4% | 8.1% | 1.30 | 40.6% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | BOS | 39.1 | 2.75 | 4.24 | 1.19 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 1.37 | 46.7% | |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | NYM | 210.1 | 3.98 | 3.82 | 1.21 | 50.00% | 22.0% | 5.7% | 1.28 | 45.6% |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | MIL | 115.1 | 3.75 | 4.31 | 1.6 | 55.56% | 14.4% | 9.7% | 0.78 | 63.6% |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | OAK | 18.1 | 7.85 | 6.26 | 1.69 | 8.4% | 9.6% | 1.96 | 29.4% | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | LAD | 44.2 | 3.43 | 5.29 | 1.05 | 50.00% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 0.60 | 49.3% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Yu Darvish TEX (vs. PHI, $11,300) – As strong as Darvish has been this season – he has a 2.96 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning (25.4 percent) – the overall performance is considered a minor disappointment given his exorbitant walk rate (3.7 BB/9, 10.2 percent), a seemingly-unsustainable BABiP (.242) and the expectation of 11 K/9 (or 30 percent of batters faced), as he had done for each of the previous three seasons that he was on the mound. Surprisingly, the Phillies have been a top-third offense in the majors this season with respect to team OBP (.330) and SLG (.432), but they have never seen the likes of Darvish, who will be making his first career start against the Phillies. I got a hunch he’s due.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at PIT, $11,400) – Speaking of disappearing strikeouts, Strasburg is another hurler who had lived in zone of double digits K/9 for his entire career, but who is hovering around a strikeout per inning this season (8.7 K/9, 23.7 percent). That said, Stras has been a reliable source of points for most of the season, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his first six turns (the first five of which went a full 7.0 frames) and striking out eight or more batters in four of his seven starts. The downside has been a couple of low-K outings and one blowup, but he has found a way to double-digit points on DraftKings in every start this season. The floor is high, the ceiling is much higher, and the Pirates – who have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball – pose little threat.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at MIA, $11,800) – Maybe I’m stupid for putting Keuchel anywhere but the top spot. The guy just keeps performing. Last start, he was facing the high-octane offense of the Yankees, and though Keuchel lasted a season-low 5.0 frames, they were all zeroes, it was still enough for a quality start, plus he tossed in nine strikeouts for his troubles. He has a ridiculous 1.69 ERA, leads the majors in innings pitched, strikes out 3.5 batters for every walk and is 6-0 to boot. The combination of run suppression, few baserunners and a decent K rate have gained Keuchel 24.75 or more points (DraftKings) in six of his eight starts this season.
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. NYM, $11,000) – There are four pitchers at $11000 or above on tonight’s slate, and all four of them are well worth the heavy investment, with higher ceilings and floors by a good margin over the rest of the starting pitcher pool. Memories of last season might cloud our judgment, but Greinke belongs in this group, particularly when facing an injury-riddled Mets team. His walk rates are matching a career low and his K rate is approaching his career high, including a 58:9 K:BB over 51.2 innings this season. His last five starts have been remarkable, in which he has tamed the Rockies in Coors FIeld, registered a pair of 11-strikeout games and compiled a 2.06 ERA with a 44:4 K:BB over 35.0 innings. The only blemish was a penchant to cough up solo homers; six of them to be exact, accounting for three-quarters of the runs that he gave up over that five-game stretch.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | TOR | 0.29 | 2.81 | 0.342 | 5.06 | 0.26 | 4.17 | 0.296 | 4.56 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | CLE | 0.265 | 2.04 | 0.326 | 4.64 | 0.229 | 4.19 | 0.256 | 4.36 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | PIT | 0.259 | 3.31 | 0.297 | 3.74 | 0.22 | 3.29 | 0.295 | 2.9 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | DET | 0.281 | 3.4 | 0.351 | 5.25 | 0.273 | 4.19 | 0.322 | 4.31 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | MIA | 0.241 | 2.47 | 0.313 | 4.17 | 0.24 | 3.62 | 0.282 | 3.75 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | CHC | 0.324 | 5.63 | 0.383 | 6.2 | 0.255 | 4.8 | 0.252 | 5.76 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | TEX | 0.341 | 6.04 | 0.309 | 3.21 | 0.252 | 5.12 | 0.252 | 5.09 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | MIN | 0.277 | 4.32 | 0.284 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 4.34 | 0.272 | 3.53 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | KCR | 0.296 | 3.27 | 0.322 | 4.47 | 0.252 | 4.45 | 0.289 | 4.44 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | STL | 0.324 | 2.86 | 0.305 | 4.58 | 0.229 | 4.21 | 0.274 | 4.19 |
| Tommy Milone | NYM | ARI | 0.325 | 3.74 | 0.376 | 6.35 | 0.298 | 4.45 | 0.315 | 5.49 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | LAA | 0.242 | 1.71 | 0.34 | 4.81 | 0.254 | 4.98 | 0.276 | 4.74 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | SDP | 0.336 | 4.54 | 0.345 | 4.47 | 0.263 | 4.82 | 0.3 | 4.89 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | SEA | 0.274 | 3.68 | 0.281 | 3.23 | 0.234 | 3.5 | 0.289 | 3.02 |
| Rich Hill | LAD | SFG | 0.23 | 1.71 | 0.256 | 2.35 | 0.197 | 3.4 | 0.275 | 2.66 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | ATL | 0.269 | 2.9 | 0.301 | 3.95 | 0.207 | 4.17 | 0.245 | 3.99 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | TBR | 0.301 | 4.18 | 0.325 | 4.12 | 0.241 | 3.75 | 0.325 | 3.69 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | WAS | 0.406 | 6.39 | 0.271 | 3.41 | 0.272 | 4.61 | 0.318 | 3.9 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | BAL | 0.251 | 3.04 | 0.339 | 4.62 | 0.254 | 4.56 | 0.286 | 4.62 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | HOU | 0.352 | 4.42 | 0.321 | 4.67 | 0.259 | 4.84 | 0.296 | 4.87 |
| John Lackey | CHC | CIN | 0.306 | 3.55 | 0.279 | 3.49 | 0.222 | 3.75 | 0.265 | 3.87 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | PHI | 0.275 | 3.21 | 0.281 | 3.29 | 0.208 | 3.35 | 0.273 | 3.39 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | COL | 0.392 | 6 | 0.336 | 5.2 | 0.302 | 4.98 | 0.318 | 4.88 |
| Jason Hammel | KCR | NYY | 0.336 | 4.08 | 0.313 | 4.3 | 0.249 | 4.36 | 0.287 | 4.46 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | BOS | 0.417 | 5.87 | 0.201 | 0.75 | 0.212 | 4.24 | 0.24 | 4.69 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | NYM | 0.309 | 3.98 | 0.307 | 3.98 | 0.25 | 3.82 | 0.292 | 3.85 |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | MIL | 0.275 | 1.45 | 0.367 | 4.59 | 0.296 | 4.31 | 0.335 | 4.3 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | OAK | 0.423 | 9.35 | 0.343 | 6.52 | 0.307 | 0.297 | 6.39 | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | LAD | 2.93 | 0.295 | 3.68 | 0.206 | 0.214 | 4.11 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Rich Hill LAD (at SF, $8,700) – The over/under on Hill’s innings count tonight is about 5.0, given that he hasn’t gone any deeper than that in either his big-league starts or his rehab appearances, and that he has maxed out at 75 pitches in a single game this year. Hill’s return from the DL will likely be taken cautiously, and that’s assuming that his incessant blisters don’t return mid-game. His numbers from the previous season indicate that Hill is a bargain at $8700, particularly against a weak Giants lineup in a cavernous ballpark, but the high probability of a truncated start kills his profit potential. He might be worth a dice-roll in a big tournament, but the risk is a bit too high for cash games. The quality of arms drops sharply once we get out of the Raise zone, and the low-percentage shot at a discounted gem is good enough to put him at the top of the Call List.
Andrew Triggs OAK (at SEA, $8,100) – The early returns on Triggs’ move from the bullpen to the starting rotation are extremely positive, including a 2.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, with low ratios across the board: walks, hits, homers, and even strikeouts. He’s only had one hiccup this season, giving up six runs over 4.2 innings of a mid-April start, but otherwise he has allowed just four total runs across 36.0 innings of work. Unfortunately for Triggs, that one hiccup came against the Mariners, and tonight we’ll get to see whether it was a one-game aberration or whether the M’s know the book on Triggs.
Lance Lynn STL (vs. BOS, $7,500) – The Red Sox bats have awakened, posing a menacing threat to a pitcher who is coming off a poor performance and who has struck out more than five batters in just two of his seven starts this season. Despite the laundry list of negatives, this is still a pitcher with a 2.75 ERA for the season, and prior to his latest blowup Lynn had strung together four consecutive starts of more than 20 points on DraftKings, but the warning flags are waving furiously to turn back before it’s too late. Lynn had a career BABiP of .313 entering this season, but his 2017 BABiP is just .245, and the Boston bats are drooling with the chance to regress that number up closer to his career value.
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at STL, $8,000) – Don’t look now, but Rodriguez has put together an impressive four-start string that has lowered his ERA from 4.76 to its current level of 2.80, compiling a 1.88 ERA over those four starts with a 27:8 K:BB in 24.0 innings. Each turn has lasted exactly 6.0 innings, with five or more strikeouts and eight or fewer baserunners. He allowed one hit but five walks in Baltimore to kick off the streak, then has allowed just three walks and 15 hits over his last 18.0 frames, beating tough offenses along the way including the NL’s Brewers and Cubs in addition to the powerful O’s. Three of those four starts have also come on the road, so Rodriguez should be undaunted by tonight’s assignment in St. Louis.
Wade Miley BAL (at DET, $7,800) – From an evaluation standpoint, Miley has been extremely hard to peg this season, with an outsized K-rate of 10.6 K/9 that is more than two Ks per nine higher than any other full-season mark in his career, yet his walk rate has been close to double his career rate with 5.6 BB/9. He has given away four or more free passes in four of his seven starts this year, maxing out with a seven-walk game in his season debut against the Yankees. The O’s have stretched Miley out to 100 pitches or beyond in all but one of his starts, that being two starts ago when a couple of line-drive comebackers knocked him from the game early. The Tigers tend to love hitting lefties, especially with J.D. Martinez back in the fold, and Miley may have to avoid bats with another high-walk game in order to escape the Tigers’ den.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at SD, $7,600) – Nelson is cruising along with a 3.99 ERA this season that will qualify as a career-low if he can maintain that level of run prevention all season, with a career-high K-rate (just barely at 7.7 K/9) and a walk rate of 3.3 BB/9, below average but better than the 3.6 BB/9 that Nelson has put up in his career. He has never posted a K-rate below 7.0 K/9 or above his current 7.7 K/9, so we know what we’re getting in the strikeout department. But let’s be honest: this is isn’t about Nelson. This ranking is all about his opponent, a weak Padres lineup that is 26th in the league in run-scoring, last in team on-base percentage (.289) and whose 359 strikeouts represent the fourth-highest total in the league.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at TEX, $7,100)
Derek Holland CHW (at LAA, $7,300)
Kyle Freeland COL (at MIN, $7,700)
J.C. Ramirez LAA (vs. CHW, $6,600)
CC Sabathia NYY (at KC, $7,200)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. HOU, $6,100)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. COL, $6,200)
Jason Hammel KC (vs. NYY, $7,000)
Chase De Jong SEA (vs. OAK, $6,600)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Clayton Richard SD (vs. MIL, $5,900)
Tommy Milone NYM (at ARI, $6,000)
Ty Blach SF (vs. LAD, $5,800)
Matt Boyd DET (vs. BAL, $6,800)
Bronson Arroyo CIN (at CHC, $5,300)
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. WAS, $5,400)