MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, April 1
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, April 1st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy April! We’ll kick off our first MLB Saturday of 2023 with our biggest slate yet. We’ve got a 12-gamer on tap for this afternoon starting at 2:10 ET. With the vast majority of the league having had yesterday off, we’ve got quite a few aces set to take the mound today. Some other teams, however, don’t have particularly good depth in the starting rotation. That’ll give us a deep crop of MLB DFS picks on both the pitching and hitting side this afternoon, so let’s jump right in.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Today is also the first day of the new season in which weather may play a significant role. Roth’s early report has SF-NYY at YELLOW/ORANGE with rain potentially impacting the late stages of the game.
- All of ATL-WAS, PIT-CIN, and BAL-BOS have some YELLOW due to light rain potential, but all 3 of these games also have fairly significant winds blowing out to the outfield. The game in Washington also has some of the warmest temps on the slate (mid-70s), which helps the bats.
- It’s a chilly afternoon in the 30s in Chicago today with 25mph winds swirling around the field. These aren’t great hitting conditions due to the temps. We also have a strong wind howling out to right field in TOR-STL, which could be useful for bats.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Blue Jays-Cardinals was a shootout on Opening Day, but we’ve got an underwhelming over/under of just 7.5 runs in the rematch today. Both offenses are facing talented right-handers, and both should run out very similar lineups to those we saw on Thursday.
- The Brewers will face lefty Justin Steele today after getting shut out by Marcus Stroman on Opening Day. Luke Voit, Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller, and Joey Wiemer are all in the lineup today in order to provide a little more right-handed thunder. Wiemer was called up to replace Luis Urias, who went on the IL with a hamstring injury. The Cubs have Edwin Rios slotted in at DH today hitting out of the No. 6 hole.
- Chas McCormick is set to draw his first start of the season in place of Jake Meyers today when the Astros face Lucas Giolito. Martin Maldonado will get the day off with Yainer Diaz replacing him behind the plate. The White Sox lineup has banged out 22 hits over the first couple of games, but they have only 5 total runs to show for it. We have rookie Oscar Colas projected to draw another start this afternoon.
- Joey Bart should get his first start of the year behind the plate for the Giants after Roberto Perez got the nod on Opening Day. The Yankees should trot out their usual 9 against right-hander Alex Cobb.
- The Braves will face RHP Josiah Gray after doing some damage off of the dusty Patrick Corbin the other day. Eddie Rosario should crack the lineup today, while Michael Harris could move up in the order after hitting 7th on Thursday. Veteran Corey Dickerson is expected to make his first start for the Nats here against the mustachioed Spencer Strider.
- Brent Rooker may start at DH for Oakland today, which certainly isn’t huge news. This offense is going to be terrible, and Oakland is probably the worst hitting environment in the league. The A’s are also facing a talented lefty in Patrick Sandoval here. The Angels’ lineup should look similar to the one that produced all of 1 run on Opening Day.
- We know the Rays like to play the platoon game. Josh Lowe and Francisco Mejia are projected to start and give the TB order some left-handed pop against Spencer Turnbull, while we have Brandon Lowe expected to move up to the clean-up spot after hitting 7th on Thursday.
- Two LHPs squaring off in Cincinnati could lead to some different lineups. Wil Myers could move up in the Reds’ order, while Kevin Newman and Curt Casali are projected to start after sitting on Thursday. Connor Joe and Rodolfo Castro could slide into the Pirates’ lineup over Canaan Smith-Njigba and Ji-Hwan Bae.
- My favorite stacks are ATL, BOS, and HOU in that order. The Twins look excellent in tournaments after flopping as popular MLB DFS picks on Opening Day.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It looks like we’ll want to pick on the Tigers again this year. Zach Eflin ($8,400) will make his first start for Tampa Bay today and projects to be the most popular pitcher on FanDuel, where we only need 1. Detroit’s projected lineup has a 24.8% K-rate since RHPs since the beginning of last year, and we know the dungeon known as Tropicana Field isn’t a favorable hitting environment. I think Eflin is safe enough for cash games, especially at an affordable salary.
- Spencer Strider ($10,800), Brandon Woodruff ($10,500), Zack Wheeler ($10,400), and Kevin Gausman ($10,200) are the most expensive arms on this slate, though none of them are projecting for a ton of ownership on FanDuel. Nick Lodolo ($9,600) is projecting to be the most popular pitcher of the upper echelon thanks to a cushy matchup against the Pirates. Of course, that low ownership will make high-strikeout arms like Strider and Woodruff look particularly appealing in GPPs in solid enough matchups against the Nats and Cubs, respectively.
- A 12-game slate should lead to pretty spread-out ownership among the offenses. Full 4-man stacks are still the best way to go with your builds. Fully stacking the Braves won’t be easy thanks to their elevated salaries, though Eddie Rosario ($2,300), Marcell Ozuna ($2,500), and Orlando Arcia ($2,200) can help make things work. The Braves’ high total makes sense here against the homer-prone Josiah Gray. Matt Olson ($3,700) and Ozzie Albies ($3,600) are headliners for me against a righty that yielded a .415 wOBA and 22 homers to left-handed bats in 2022.
- We’ve stacked against Jordan Lyles a time or 50 over the years, and now he’ll make his first start for the Royals against the Twins. Minnesota wasn’t able to muster much of anything against Zack Greinke two days ago, but Lyles has been more prone to melting down. Most importantly, everyone in the Twins’ projected lineup outside of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa comes in south of $3,000 on FanDuel. Max Kepler ($2,500) should make for a popular but excellent option hitting out of the leadoff spot.
- The Red Sox will take their swings against Dean Kremer. He had some success last year, but he projects as a middling reverse-split right-hander. Fenway Park is one of the best settings in the sport for righty power. Adam Duvall ($2,600) fits like a glove in this park with his plus power. Justin Turner ($2,800), Enrique Hernandez ($2,700), and Christian Arroyo ($2,400) are all on the preferred side of Kremer’s split with useful multi-positional flexibility on FD. There are a million ways to stack Boston today.
- If you’re scrounging around for some cheap one-offs, Brandon Belt ($2,000), Darick Hall ($2,200), Andrew McCutchen ($2,600), and Jorge Soler ($2,500) all offer power upside at cheap salaries this afternoon.
- The pitching pricing on DraftKings is a bit tighter than it was on Thursday, but we still have some very obvious values on the pitching side. Eflin ($7,500) and Lodolo ($8,800) are too cheap for their talent and matchups today, which should make them awfully popular MLB DFS picks on DK here. Justin Steele is sitting at an affordable $6,000 in a decent matchup against the Brewers. Remember, the winds and chilly temps at Wrigley today should make for favorable pitching conditions. There’s no telling what Chris Sale is at this stage of his career after dealing with a series of injuries, but it’s admittedly hard to ignore his $6,700 price point on DK even in a tougher spot at home vs. Baltimore.
- Woodruff ($10,300), Wheeler ($10,100), and Strider ($9,700) are your more expensive pitching options, but I still wouldn’t say they’re overpriced by any means. I think Wheeler’s the easiest fade of this bunch against a sneaky-good Texas offense, while Strider and his incredible strikeout numbers should always make him an attractive play.
- As is the case on FanDuel, we’ve got excellent value with the Twins beyond Byron Buxton ($6,000) and Carlos Correa ($5,600). Michael A. Taylor ($2,300) isn’t the most potent bat, but he’s almost free. Joey Gallo ($3,300), Nick Gordon ($3,100), and Trevor Larnach ($3,200) are solid cheapies that’ll hold the platoon edge over Lyles, as well.
- After popping off on Thursday, we have to at least consider the O’s again today against Sale. Is he good anymore? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . He’s always had a wide platoon split, and the Green Monster beckons for those right-handed power bats. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays are your primary righty sluggers, while Jorge Mateo ($3,300) and Ramon Urias ($3,000) are still affordable after big outings on Opening Day.
- Corey Julks ($2,000), Eddie Rosario ($2,400), and Ryan McKenna ($2,000) are 3 one-off punts to consider if you’re in the market for such things.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!