MLB GPP Plays: Friday, August 14th
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHER
Corey Kluber, Minnesota Twins – If I am paying up for an ace tonight, I am rolling out the Klubot. Kluber was superb in his last start (9 IP, 1 ER,10 Ks) against these same Twins and I expect him to dominate them once again. Since July 1st the Minnesota Twins have a lousy .280 wOBA and a 25% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. The win is also in play as the Tribe should provide plenty of run support against Trevor May and that awful Twins bullpen.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks – If you are looking for salary relief on the mound tonight, Robbie Ray just may be your guy. With a solid strikeout rate (8.23 K/9) and a matchup against a weak Atlanta Braves team, Ray has some nice upside this evening. The Braves struggle mightily versus southpaws (21.1% K rate .281 wOBA) and I think Ray flies under the radar in tournaments.
Other Pitchers to Target – Max Scherzer, David Price, Dallas Keuchel, Ubaldo Jimenez
CATCHER
Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers – Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Adam Morgan is due to implode any start now and I expect it to happen tonight at Miller Park. With his fly ball tendencies and all the hard contact he is allowing to right-handed batters, Morgan’s .371 wOBA should only get worse. Hitting in the two-spot in the Brewers order, Lucroy provides high upside at a very low cost.
Jason Castro, Houston Astros – Alfredo Simon has allowed four or more runs in eight of his last nine starts, which adds up to an ugly 43 earned runs in just over 46 innings pitched. On top of that, lefties have hammered him all season long (.303 BAA, .37 wOBA). Castro makes a great punt play at catcher tonight.
Other Catchers to Target – Derek Norris, Travis d’Arnaud, Yan Gomes, Stephen Vogt
FIRST BASE
Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals – Pick your poison, as both of the Royals first basemen are in a great spot to produce tonight. Jered Weaver is by no means a gas can, but he is extremely vulnerable to left-handed hitters. Hosmer is smoking hot and he has mashed righties this season (.335 BA, .400 wOBA). Morales constantly comes up to bat with runners on base and he leads the Royals with 82 RBIs. Kendrys has also had plenty of success against Weaver (8-for-12, .667 BA), in a decent sample size.
Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates – Alvarez is starting to heat up with hits in six of his last seven contests. In his last three games alone, Pedro has compiled six hits, including two doubles and two bombs. Bartolo Colon will be throwing a steady dose of fastballs to Alvarez tonight and one of those could very easily end up in the seats. Alvarez makes a great boom-or-bust option in your large field tournaments.
Other First Basemen to Target – Prince Fielder, Carlos Santana, Ryan Howard, Ben Paulsen
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners – Cano is back to being a hitting machine, generating five multi-hit games in his last nine contests. Cano has been in a groove since the beginning of July and I don’t see Joe Kelly slowing him down. Kelly has been lit up like a Christmas tree in the majority of his starts this year and I think we can expect another multi-hit effort from Cano.
Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres – Yohan Flande is pitching for the Colorado Rockies tonight in Coors Field and we should have some exposure to the San Diego Padres bats. Flande can limit the damage with his decent ground ball rate, but righties will still touch him up (.334 wOBA). Gyorko has home run upside and he has hit extremely well in his 18 career games at Coors Field (.319 BA with 11 doubles, three homers and nine RBIs).
Other Second Basemen to Target – Neil Walker, Kolten Wong, Chase Utley
THIRD BASE
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners – We have established that we want to target hitters against Joe Kelly and I definitely want some exposure to Seager tonight at Fenway Park. Seager tends to sleep through games before exploding with a monster game and I love his potential tonight. At the very least he should see plenty of RBI opportunities.
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – With Texas Rangers southpaw Martin Perez on the bump this evening, we can safely target Tampa Bay Rays hitters from the right side of the plate. Righties have punished Perez (.329 BAA, .352 wOBA) this season and I expect more of the same tonight at the Trop. Longoria is a notorious lefty killer and he is swinging a hot stick in August (.333 BA).
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Justin Turner
SHORTSTOP
We have yet another night where no shortstop jumps out at me, so I will discuss a few players that I plan to have exposure to in my GPPs. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Correa remain the two best high upside options, but both Ivan Nova and Alfredo Simon have been good against right-handed batters. All of Xander Bogaerts, Jose Reyes, Jhonny Peralta and Ian Desmond provide “big game” upside at a much lower cost than the studs mentioned above. Assuming he is leading off again, Segura makes a nice value play against the very hittable Adam Morgan. Staying with value, J.J. Hardy has home run upside versus lefty Brad Mills.
OUTFIELD
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals – If you plan to roster a value pitcher or two and you can afford him, Bryce Harper makes a great high upside play. Left-handed hitters have killed Matt Cain in 2015 (.328 BAA, .421 wOBA) and Harper murders right-handed pitching (.339 BA, .428 wOBA). Because of his high salary and the ball park, I think Harper will be highly under-owned in tournaments tonight.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers – It is clear that I plan to go after Adam Morgan with the Brewers right-handed batters. Braun clearly has the most upside of all the Brewers bats and I think he takes Morgan deep in this one.
Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles – With lefty journeymen Brad Mills now toeing the rubber for the Oakland Athletics tonight, Adam Jones is a guy I will definitely have some exposure to. Jones crushes southpaws (.329 BA, .402 wOBA) and I love his upside in this matchup.
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks – Peralta has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last seven days, producing a .619 batting average with two doubles a homer and 12 runs batted in. Peralta has been dealing with a sore quad, but the D-Backs expect to have him back in the lineup tonight. Julio Teheran continues to have fits with lefties (.368 wOBA) and I think Peralta gets to him in this game.
Other Outfielders to Target – Nelson Cruz, Gregory Polanco, Preston Tucker, Josh Reddick, Juan Lagares, Scott Van Slyke